Open 878: Scarfolk Council | The End

[sheepsaysmeep]

Implosion we should both talk more about Aisa today in case one of us dies

[sheepsaysmeep]

Or I would find it insanely helpful if you did during my vla if u guys wanna just shabam without massclaim

[implosion]

I think delaying massclaim by a day can be useful in this setup. It seems like we don't have an SK unless we have a prolific doctor or blocker or scum roleblocker, and if we're able to assume that there's potential to get some confirmations on the number of town roles based on letters so delaying massclaim could let us have some relatively confirmed players tomorrow. Of course if we mislim today and end up in 7p 3:4 tomorrow then sifting through those claims will be a chore and every townie will have to agree to get it right.

I'm sort of neutral on whether we do it today all things considered

[Dunnstral]

implosion being softly down to "Just Lim fire" is like 0.01% weird to me meh

like I get it but switched sides a bit easily

skitter wanted fire gone and like I said yesterday my overall read on fire accounting for me being bad at reading fire was more-or-less-null.

I am at Aisa-fully-locktown right now. I think I am never re-evaluating on her, and if she is scum I'm willing to tank the loss. I think she has played a

ridiculously

good game if she is scum.

The point of Just Lim Fire is that if we are planning to lim fire, we might as well delay massclaim by one extra day so a VT might die when they wouldn't have. If we are massclaiming then fire would be up first so it might be okay for fire to just claim.

I am also leaning Aisa as town.

I do not think we should mass claim today; I think if we get the elimination wrong we lose anyway, and I think that claiming won't really help us. If anybody is a full cop or something they should start things off probably but otherwise I don't see the point

[implosion]

As I mentioned, Aisa is town for this page: viewtopic.php?p=13806176#p13806176

To be more specific: the biggest thing is her Aureal trajectory. She changed her mind on her Aureal read unprompted twice in a row without anyone doing anything to cause it then told people to nag her to explain it later. That would require like, so much work to come up with doing as scum. The rest of that page also just screams to me town who is genuinely lost. Her play since then also just keeps looking town to me, plus there's the reaction test thing earlier which I think I landed at "eh this is not locktownable but is significant townpoints" on so yeah, I am close to absolutely unwilling to consider Aisa scum

[Dunnstral]

I think that we should eliminate Egix, and then we should eliminate between Aureal and fireisredsir, and then we should eliminate between cephrir and sheepsaysmeep

[Aisa]

Now that’s a hot take

[Dunnstral]

It seems like we don't have an SK unless we have a prolific doctor or blocker or scum roleblocker,

This is a dangerous assumption. I've seen two games were an sk didn't kill anybody and then swooped in at the end for the victory. I don't want to go digging for the specific games, but the first game was MariaR who targeted the same person as mafia a few times and got jailkept another time. I cleared them as unlikely to be aligned with the mafia - which they weren't, and then as soon as the last mafia died they were able to perform a unique kill and it just looked like there was an extra mafia member instead of an SK, so I kept them as clear. And then another game, mastina was an SK and I guess they thought they were a survivor. So they just didn't kill, I think they even claimed survivor. And then they just won as SK at the end (I think).

Who knows. SK isn't required to kill anybody the first two nights to win the game.

[Aureal]

i actually forgot egix was in this game

Bruh, is that

really

your excuse for totally ignoring him this whole time and instead trying to point in my direction for vague reasons that seem they should apply at least as much to others like him?



Yeah, definitely getting more okay with flipping this.

i think ceph being the one to actually take action and start campaigning for alternate wagons is pretty towny

Pssst, some of us were on an alternate wagon since like, when we got here, and wanted others to come along.

[Aisa]

idk what was confusing about the strength of my read on aureal i thought ive been pretty clear on that

im just not gonna come in here being like "guys you know how yesterday everyone wanted to kill me and i showed up like, hey please don't kill me i really think skitter is scum? and i was wrong? well HEAR ME OUT"

I guess this makes some sense
Something still feels wrong but I can’t articulate it rn

[Dunnstral]

i actually forgot egix was in this game

Bruh, is that

really

your excuse for totally ignoring him this whole time and instead trying to point in my direction for vague reasons that seem they should apply at least as much to others like him?

What about yourself? You seemed much more interested in talking about me but not so much Egix. And it's not totally clear to me why that would be.

[Egix96]

i actually forgot egix was in this game

which is always a great sign for alignment

Spoiler: song

I think I'll just do some rereading for the time being.

[fireisredsir]

i actually forgot egix was in this game

Bruh, is that

really

your excuse for totally ignoring him this whole time and instead trying to point in my direction for vague reasons that seem they should apply at least as much to others like him?



Yeah, definitely getting more okay with flipping this.

what even are you trying to say?

that i intentionally left him out of a list where i gave a read on everyone else and i just hoped nobody would notice?

my reasons for suspecting you also have nothing to do with him

this is so fake

[fireisredsir]

i think ceph being the one to actually take action and start campaigning for alternate wagons is pretty towny

Pssst, some of us were on an alternate wagon since like, when we got here, and wanted others to come along.

person a) was a part of tvt wagons and then actively worked to try to move away from them and dismantle the locked position towards the rest of the game

person b) stayed on the sidelines and mostly just wavered back and forth not wanting to sort either person in the tvt wagons for days and just let others push them

i don't think this is the point that you think it is

also if you really believe that im scum then you shouldn't be giving yourself townpoints for staying off the wagons. i think you know that im town which is the only way this statement from you makes any sense

[Egix96]

Spoiler: aureal slot stuff

#247 - "(unvote) literally no one is coming off scummy or townie at this point lol" - kinda weird for this to be said on page 10... like yeah, I know there was a lot of fluff in the early game, but still... no reads at all?

#257 - I don't know what this was referring to. I guess now we'll never know...

#267 - "Why are you asking me this tho, aren't you caught up" - this was one thing I had town vibes from.

#329 - "She's already got 3 votes, no need to E-1 this early" - admittedly this is kind of a stretch, but I felt like this was a towny derp because scum would have been aware of the correct maj value when planning their strategy at the start of the game.

#340 - another townvibey post.

#365 - "It was a

good faith

interpretation of a pattern." - Idk, feels kinda LAMIST specifically saying that his interpretation was "good faith". In case you're wondering how I would've expected it to be phrased more naturally - something like "It was just my interpretation..."

#407 - "I don't know how you go "It's fine if you think I'm scummy but you're making a leap" to your only SR." - feels like town thought process

=== Aureal ===

#1045 - "Then when a counterwagon is actually threatening Dunn, sheep starts acting like Enchant is a done deal, don't look elsewhere, gotta do this. I do not like this." - Making a note of this as it's another thing I want to look a bit further into.

#1050 - "I feel a little better about Ceph from the skitter push on him here. Not because of all the silly "I'm so towny" stuff, but I do find some credibility in the idea that he's made his meta case on Enchant before and finds it exasperating to have to spell it out for people again." - townvibey part

#1140 - town feels, I kinda feel like scum wouldn't make this sort of post (or at least, be less likely to make it)

#1191 and 1194 - Admittedly, this line of questioning comes off as forced because I think the answer should have been fairly obvious?

#1298 - "I guess you did say earlier that you don't like to ascribe meaning to replacements, which is more aligned with my thinking, so I'm confused why you started answering for Cephrir about the subject." - feels like a towny thought

#1542 - I'm inclined to townread this post, but that's mainly because I find it relatable lol.

Conclusion: still thinking this slot is town overall. Sure, looking back I have found a few things not to like, but tbf I don't think anyone in this game has looked 100% perfect.

I'd appreciate it if you could still try to explain the feels a little bit!

Quoting this so you know I got around to it.

[Egix96]

i think from aureal herself the thing that stood out most to me as pinging AI were the posts she made surrounding me, they just felt a little... off, i guess. some of that you touched on. it seemed more positional than being a natural train of thought

i also don't really like that aureal has been voteparked there while spinning around not knowing what to do with the two main wagons

like i kinda feel like aureal has been avoiding committing to really digging into attempting to read skitter despite her being the main alternative to me at the moment and has just been focused on "but why fire??"

Spoiler: long post

ok so aureal's two latest ISO dives on sheep and skitter both left me kinda... unsatisfied. they're both just i think way too much summary for my taste, and not enough analysis of what that means for the alignment, or sort of grasping onto overall meanings or motivations beyond just "i like this" and "i don't like this". with both i was kind of left thinking, whats your point?

but, i figured, ive never played with aureal before tho so maybe this is just her style. so i went and looked through a bunch of aureal isos from previous town games to see if this is just how she tries to sort people later in the game

and i really don't think it is

most games didn't have anything like this. the analysis was a lot more clear, most of her time was spent engaging with people and picking at specific points and explaining why she had a specific read on them, etc

there were a couple ISO dives that were explicitly summaries of interactions, but rarely were they done as like, a way to make content

the closest thing i found (across like 8 games) was this post:

Spoiler: from another game

Subject: Micro 1073: Purgatory - Game Over!

A few thoughts from some browsing of AV's ISO.

Pretty sure AV is NOT scum with Ranger because of 239 and is probably just town (the opening about Aisa reads pretty towny, are scum going to talk about how they want to read someone, doesn't seem so likely). I just can't see any reason why scum would make an argument directed to their scumbuddy only to have the scumbuddy misintepret it, forcing the original questioner to have to clarify and ask again. Ranger does not look as good for the misinterpretation, though. The original question in 181 and called out to Ranger again in 209 seems pretty clear and yet Ranger somehow digs up 45 and uses it in her response which clearly is not what AV is talking about- he literally quotes the 'freaking out' in 181; and if Ranger only saw 209's question it says Arko putting Oc at e-2 was "earlier in the thread" than the freaking out and 45 clearly is not earlier than the vote in 54.

It's also seeming less likely from this that Oc/Enchant is scum with Arko/Drew, as Oc was the one who triggered Arko's e-2 shenanigans. I could see this sequence as Arko starting to break down under early pressure, then coming back the next day to see feedback in the scum PT that his OMGUS stuff was bad and he unvotes.

I'm thinking Bella is town, though I haven't dug deeper on her yet. Vander/Ranger/Arko makes sense as a team to me. Arko gets pressured early but also seems to have decent support so Ranger defends in over-the-top fashion, trying to get Vander towncred for a heaven vote by bussing Ranger and then hopefully people think Ranger was white-knighting townArko so he has a heaven shot later? The heaven voting is maybe a little weird if so but I think makes enough sense... Drew puts Vander at h-1 and Ranger doesn't hammer, but that could be because obviously Ranger shouldn't want Vander there and maybe Ranger's slot is salvageable once we see Vander was scum, but not if Ranger hammers. It seemed reasonable to wait and figure Bella or I would be amenable to voting Vander. But AV switches to Aisa, Drew votes Aisa to see if that'll get AV back, Ranger obviously can't do anything but vote Aisa, then Bella brings out her Aisa read and Enchant loves hammers.

I'm moving towards voting Ranger but we've got time and she's got stuff to deal with. And I'll keep doing more poking around.

but even this i think has a ton more analysis to it than the two we've seen this game. it references specific posts to make the points, but it's explaining an overall narrative and overall conclusions

i kinda think that stuff like aureal has done here comes when scum aren't really sure how to produce meaningful content and so they just pull up an iso and start summarizing what they see, because it looks long and has lots of links and people think "oh they efforted they're probably town"

maybe i missed a time when this was done? aureal if you have any in mind feel free to point me to them

yes, as i said, i think aureal is scum. i don't really see any world where she isn't

Like... I'm trying to understand why you now have Aureal as effectively lock scum (judging from the final bit I've quoted here) so I've ctrl-f'd her name in your iso and... well, as far as I can see, it's three things you vaguely felt, plus a meta argument.

Unless there's something I missed because I just quickly searched, I don't get why you've now seemingly gone from, like, 30 to 100.

[fireisredsir]

tbh i think the most useful thing i can do here is try to see if i can feel confident clearing slots

if we treat implo and mena as town, and implo is townlocking aisa, then basically either we already lost, or we just need to find one more town

ill give implosion a closer look later which i really haven't done as much as i originally planned to, to see if i can sign off on that

[fireisredsir]

i think from aureal herself the thing that stood out most to me as pinging AI were the posts she made surrounding me, they just felt a little... off, i guess. some of that you touched on. it seemed more positional than being a natural train of thought

i also don't really like that aureal has been voteparked there while spinning around not knowing what to do with the two main wagons

like i kinda feel like aureal has been avoiding committing to really digging into attempting to read skitter despite her being the main alternative to me at the moment and has just been focused on "but why fire??"

Spoiler: long post

ok so aureal's two latest ISO dives on sheep and skitter both left me kinda... unsatisfied. they're both just i think way too much summary for my taste, and not enough analysis of what that means for the alignment, or sort of grasping onto overall meanings or motivations beyond just "i like this" and "i don't like this". with both i was kind of left thinking, whats your point?

but, i figured, ive never played with aureal before tho so maybe this is just her style. so i went and looked through a bunch of aureal isos from previous town games to see if this is just how she tries to sort people later in the game

and i really don't think it is

most games didn't have anything like this. the analysis was a lot more clear, most of her time was spent engaging with people and picking at specific points and explaining why she had a specific read on them, etc

there were a couple ISO dives that were explicitly summaries of interactions, but rarely were they done as like, a way to make content

the closest thing i found (across like 8 games) was this post:

Spoiler: from another game

Subject: Micro 1073: Purgatory - Game Over!

A few thoughts from some browsing of AV's ISO.

Pretty sure AV is NOT scum with Ranger because of 239 and is probably just town (the opening about Aisa reads pretty towny, are scum going to talk about how they want to read someone, doesn't seem so likely). I just can't see any reason why scum would make an argument directed to their scumbuddy only to have the scumbuddy misintepret it, forcing the original questioner to have to clarify and ask again. Ranger does not look as good for the misinterpretation, though. The original question in 181 and called out to Ranger again in 209 seems pretty clear and yet Ranger somehow digs up 45 and uses it in her response which clearly is not what AV is talking about- he literally quotes the 'freaking out' in 181; and if Ranger only saw 209's question it says Arko putting Oc at e-2 was "earlier in the thread" than the freaking out and 45 clearly is not earlier than the vote in 54.

It's also seeming less likely from this that Oc/Enchant is scum with Arko/Drew, as Oc was the one who triggered Arko's e-2 shenanigans. I could see this sequence as Arko starting to break down under early pressure, then coming back the next day to see feedback in the scum PT that his OMGUS stuff was bad and he unvotes.

I'm thinking Bella is town, though I haven't dug deeper on her yet. Vander/Ranger/Arko makes sense as a team to me. Arko gets pressured early but also seems to have decent support so Ranger defends in over-the-top fashion, trying to get Vander towncred for a heaven vote by bussing Ranger and then hopefully people think Ranger was white-knighting townArko so he has a heaven shot later? The heaven voting is maybe a little weird if so but I think makes enough sense... Drew puts Vander at h-1 and Ranger doesn't hammer, but that could be because obviously Ranger shouldn't want Vander there and maybe Ranger's slot is salvageable once we see Vander was scum, but not if Ranger hammers. It seemed reasonable to wait and figure Bella or I would be amenable to voting Vander. But AV switches to Aisa, Drew votes Aisa to see if that'll get AV back, Ranger obviously can't do anything but vote Aisa, then Bella brings out her Aisa read and Enchant loves hammers.

I'm moving towards voting Ranger but we've got time and she's got stuff to deal with. And I'll keep doing more poking around.

but even this i think has a ton more analysis to it than the two we've seen this game. it references specific posts to make the points, but it's explaining an overall narrative and overall conclusions

i kinda think that stuff like aureal has done here comes when scum aren't really sure how to produce meaningful content and so they just pull up an iso and start summarizing what they see, because it looks long and has lots of links and people think "oh they efforted they're probably town"

maybe i missed a time when this was done? aureal if you have any in mind feel free to point me to them

yes, as i said, i think aureal is scum. i don't really see any world where she isn't

Like... I'm trying to understand why you now have Aureal as effectively lock scum (judging from the final bit I've quoted here) so I've ctrl-f'd her name in your iso and... well, as far as I can see, it's three things you vaguely felt, plus a meta argument.

Unless there's something I missed because I just quickly searched, I don't get why you've now seemingly gone from, like, 30 to 100.

the poe is very narrow fmpov and it got narrower when skitter flipped town

aureal is the scummiest of those slots imo and so i can't really see any team that doesn't have her on it

if people really want me to i can take some time to try to state my reasons more clearly but i really don't think that does much to help town win the game here

[fireisredsir]

o wait we need to find 2 more town im bad at math

[fireisredsir]

thats harder i guess

[Egix96]

the poe is very narrow fmpov and it got narrower when skitter flipped town

aureal is the scummiest of those slots imo and so i can't really see any team that doesn't have her on it

Okay

I was thinking that PoE was probably a factor but I didn't wanna just lead you into that as an answer

[Egix96]

So why don't you vote sheep instead of me then?

Uh, why? If sheep was trying to make sure Enchant got flipped rather than you, surely the obvious implication would be that you're likely scum partners? Is it very likely that scum goes out of the way trying to wave a town wagon onward when the growing counterwagon is also town?

Lol @ the above

@Aisa why didn't you believe Aureal's theory here?

[Aureal]

i actually forgot egix was in this game

Bruh, is that

really

your excuse for totally ignoring him this whole time and instead trying to point in my direction for vague reasons that seem they should apply at least as much to others like him?

What about yourself? You seemed much more interested in talking about me but not so much Egix. And it's not totally clear to me why that would be.

And? That's not very comparable- I'm not the one making an argument for a scumread that was seemingly plucked at random from a group which contains many people who fit the stated argument.

Egix just conveniently reposted fire's supposed arguments why I'm scum and it boils down to "feels off" and "not trying very hard". I think it's pretty obvious that there's multiple people in the same position of not trying very hard. And "feeling off" is totally subjective meaningless fluff that anyone can use with no accountability to explain it.

If fire was genuinely sorting, how the heck did he "forget" Egix exists? Seems to me like if you think a type of behavior is suspicious you would look over the players to see who exhibits it. Not totally forget about one of them. I certainly have not forgotten Egix exists even though I usually play micros so there's still as many players in this game as I'm used to starting with. It seems like the sort of thing that someone who wanted to target someone and just backfilled some reason afterward might end up doing.

[Aureal]

i think ceph being the one to actually take action and start campaigning for alternate wagons is pretty towny

Pssst, some of us were on an alternate wagon since like, when we got here, and wanted others to come along.

person a) was a part of tvt wagons and then actively worked to try to move away from them and dismantle the locked position towards the rest of the game

Who what huh? I thought you were talking about Ceph, the person who started the push on skitter and made sure the day ended there?

person b) stayed on the sidelines and mostly just wavered back and forth not wanting to sort either person in the tvt wagons for days and just let others push them

Sounds like a truly confused townie who doesn't really like the direction things are going but doesn't have the oomph to get anywhere with their own reads.

Oh wait, you're talking about me. So that's not even an accurate description. I tried to sort you pretty early on and nobody really wanted to engage with my concern about the scumread on you.

Also, if we're just stating one's own alignment as fact, how about the person who replaced into a largely scumread slot, helped organize a wagon on a townie who might have been more dangerous to scum were she not preoccupied with personal business, then started trying to lay the groundwork to push another townie once the elimination on the first seemed pretty secure?

i don't think this is the point that you think it is

also if you really believe that im scum then you shouldn't be giving yourself townpoints for staying off the wagons. i think you know that im town which is the only way this statement from you makes any sense

I'm not giving myself anything, I'm pointing out that if you're town it's pretty weird to scumread someone for having correct instincts??? But I'm really not sold that you're town anymore. You were like 30% over null and skitter 10% over null when I reviewed things towards the end of day two. You're dropping off pretty sharply now.

[Aureal]

i think from aureal herself the thing that stood out most to me as pinging AI were the posts she made surrounding me, they just felt a little... off, i guess. some of that you touched on. it seemed more positional than being a natural train of thought

i also don't really like that aureal has been voteparked there while spinning around not knowing what to do with the two main wagons

like i kinda feel like aureal has been avoiding committing to really digging into attempting to read skitter despite her being the main alternative to me at the moment and has just been focused on "but why fire??"

Spoiler: long post

ok so aureal's two latest ISO dives on sheep and skitter both left me kinda... unsatisfied. they're both just i think way too much summary for my taste, and not enough analysis of what that means for the alignment, or sort of grasping onto overall meanings or motivations beyond just "i like this" and "i don't like this". with both i was kind of left thinking, whats your point?

but, i figured, ive never played with aureal before tho so maybe this is just her style. so i went and looked through a bunch of aureal isos from previous town games to see if this is just how she tries to sort people later in the game

and i really don't think it is

most games didn't have anything like this. the analysis was a lot more clear, most of her time was spent engaging with people and picking at specific points and explaining why she had a specific read on them, etc

there were a couple ISO dives that were explicitly summaries of interactions, but rarely were they done as like, a way to make content

the closest thing i found (across like 8 games) was this post:

Spoiler: from another game

Subject: Micro 1073: Purgatory - Game Over!

A few thoughts from some browsing of AV's ISO.

Pretty sure AV is NOT scum with Ranger because of 239 and is probably just town (the opening about Aisa reads pretty towny, are scum going to talk about how they want to read someone, doesn't seem so likely). I just can't see any reason why scum would make an argument directed to their scumbuddy only to have the scumbuddy misintepret it, forcing the original questioner to have to clarify and ask again. Ranger does not look as good for the misinterpretation, though. The original question in 181 and called out to Ranger again in 209 seems pretty clear and yet Ranger somehow digs up 45 and uses it in her response which clearly is not what AV is talking about- he literally quotes the 'freaking out' in 181; and if Ranger only saw 209's question it says Arko putting Oc at e-2 was "earlier in the thread" than the freaking out and 45 clearly is not earlier than the vote in 54.

It's also seeming less likely from this that Oc/Enchant is scum with Arko/Drew, as Oc was the one who triggered Arko's e-2 shenanigans. I could see this sequence as Arko starting to break down under early pressure, then coming back the next day to see feedback in the scum PT that his OMGUS stuff was bad and he unvotes.

I'm thinking Bella is town, though I haven't dug deeper on her yet. Vander/Ranger/Arko makes sense as a team to me. Arko gets pressured early but also seems to have decent support so Ranger defends in over-the-top fashion, trying to get Vander towncred for a heaven vote by bussing Ranger and then hopefully people think Ranger was white-knighting townArko so he has a heaven shot later? The heaven voting is maybe a little weird if so but I think makes enough sense... Drew puts Vander at h-1 and Ranger doesn't hammer, but that could be because obviously Ranger shouldn't want Vander there and maybe Ranger's slot is salvageable once we see Vander was scum, but not if Ranger hammers. It seemed reasonable to wait and figure Bella or I would be amenable to voting Vander. But AV switches to Aisa, Drew votes Aisa to see if that'll get AV back, Ranger obviously can't do anything but vote Aisa, then Bella brings out her Aisa read and Enchant loves hammers.

I'm moving towards voting Ranger but we've got time and she's got stuff to deal with. And I'll keep doing more poking around.

but even this i think has a ton more analysis to it than the two we've seen this game. it references specific posts to make the points, but it's explaining an overall narrative and overall conclusions

i kinda think that stuff like aureal has done here comes when scum aren't really sure how to produce meaningful content and so they just pull up an iso and start summarizing what they see, because it looks long and has lots of links and people think "oh they efforted they're probably town"

maybe i missed a time when this was done? aureal if you have any in mind feel free to point me to them

yes, as i said, i think aureal is scum. i don't really see any world where she isn't

Like... I'm trying to understand why you now have Aureal as effectively lock scum (judging from the final bit I've quoted here) so I've ctrl-f'd her name in your iso and... well, as far as I can see, it's three things you vaguely felt, plus a meta argument.

Unless there's something I missed because I just quickly searched, I don't get why you've now seemingly gone from, like, 30 to 100.

the poe is very narrow fmpov and it got narrower when skitter flipped town

aureal is the scummiest of those slots imo and so i can't really see any team that doesn't have her on it

if people really want me to i can take some time to try to state my reasons more clearly but i really don't think that does much to help town win the game here

Ah yes, "clear reasons, why would that help anything?" What a great argument. Truly, you are trying to help town solve here.