Open 878: Scarfolk Council | The End

[Egix96]

Mmmm my brain is a dolphin doing all sorts of backflips rn.
What if it’s exactly Ceph + Dunn + fire? Someone please reassure me I’m not crazy and I’ve definitely got the game completely solved :3

Like yeah, I could see that? If only because the PoE is yetting pretty narrow at this stage.

[Aureal]

Aureal I feel like u have copious scumreads and minimal townreads? Like dunn, ceph, fire, me ish

Does this concern u

Uuuuuh, no? My townreads (implosion, Menalque, Aisa) have been consistently stronger than my scumreads pretty much this whole time. I'm basically just starting to feel fairly confident in the latter as well.

[sheepsaysmeep]

meh

VOTE: dunn

[Egix96]

Someone please reassure me I’m not crazy and I’ve definitely got the game completely solved :3

Someone? Anyone. Cmon. How is this not an attractive proposition?

I think for a while I was at
{implosion, Cephrir, Aureal}
{Menalque, sheep, Egix, fireisredsir, Dunn}

but Egixslot is actually definitely a townslot at least until I change my mind again and it's a stronger read than Ceph. If I swap those I get
{implosion, Egix, Aureal}
{Cephrir, Menalque, sheep, fireisredsir, Dunn}

and I think this also gives me more scumteam options I find compelling to play with

Actually yeah pretty much this

[sheepsaysmeep]

egix96 can u give a list what ur overall reads look like rn

[sheepsaysmeep]

the game is screaming to me rn that it's just dunn/fire or egix/aureal

and the third is probably just ceph?? but that is less confident and another week's problem

[implosion]

So my feelings right now, overall:

I trust Aisa.
I mostly-trust Menalque. Like I mentioned, I think his fire case wasn't convincing and at first blush it felt potentially scummy but as I read it more that feeling didn't stick. I think he's played a very peculiar game if he's scum. He can potentially be re-evaluated after flipping fire but I don't really know if a fire town or fire scum flip would look better or worse for him. Either way, I think he is clearly off the table today.

Aisa trusts Aureal and I lean that way, though I really,

really

should put more effort in than I have to getting a more pinned-down read there.
Aisa trusts Egix. Here I'm shakier, but I am more than happy to have the excuse to take someone out of the lim pool at least for now. I do want to hear what Aisa has to say though.

That leaves fire, Dunn, sheep, and Ceph. I have zero interest in limming Ceph today personally; I think he's most likely town based on various, but it's absolutely a read that can be wrong. So I guess right now I land on fire, Dunn, or sheep as the lim for today. That seems to be not overly controversial (except that Dunn wants Egix and, again, I'm open to hearing stuff about Egix).

Fire is the more-or-less natural lim. His wagon comp seems overall good right now at Menalque + me + Aureal with more people relatively reluctant to join on; this is especially true with me, universally townread, just lazily leading on him very loudly today. With 3 scum in the game out of 9 players, it kind of feels like a fire mislim should be just an easy homerun for them to bring it down to 3:4 (could be an SK, could be only 2 scum, but etc). I think sheep can be partnered to fire pretty easily; the dynamic is potentially there with sheep's turn to fire (which I'll address a bit more in another post shortly).

I guess what I'm saying is that I Want fire To Claim. I either want a fire lim or I want a massclaim. And in either case, I want fire to claim.

[fireisredsir]

The fact that there is absolutely no impetus toward limming fire today after what happened yesterday makes me want to revise my stance and agree with skitter/menalque that there is some weird unnatural resistance to limming fire right now. fire is the natural lim; there's been like semi-consensus on fire's slot being scum like twice and nothing happened either time + skitter as she was dying kept saying we need to look at fire (she also said she thought sheep looked even worse than fire but still).

imagine the world where i am town

what do you think scum does in that world?

especially if you, aisa, and mena are town, which i think you all are

scum is playing to ensure they win the game here, town will push me for them, their goal here is to make sure town doesn't find each other and come up with a correct solve, and to appear distanced from each other

if im scum i don't really think its worth it for them to try to stay off me. idk maybe they would, but i think it's at least pretty equal to what they will do with me being town

[fireisredsir]

i am Townie

[fireisredsir]

especially bc if 3 town want me dead then all of the scum being like ehhh nah maybe not, that will 100% do exactly what it is effectively doing in making the town want to double down and push the lim through

[implosion]

So sheep. Honestly, something about the way in which sheep is indecisive right now is really offputting to me. I generally tend to think changing your mind is more often than not something town do more compared to scum. But that's not really exactly what sheep is doing, sheep had this feeling Aisa might be scum but then abandoned that feeling when, tbh, nothing really changed. Yeah Aisa townposted more but it's not like Aisa townposted in a way that she wasn't already doing. It kind of feels like if sheep is town who thinks Aisa is town then he should have figured that out a long time ago, or at least like, I'm not sure why he changed his mind now except that he's scum who just realizes she's never a viable push.

Another thing is these posts from the past couple pages.

whatever maybe I'll just vote fire here

I feel myself caving

I very much feel dunn/fire right now but maybe that's just optimism speaking rather than good reason

the game is screaming to me rn that it's just dunn/fire or egix/aureal

and the third is probably just ceph?? but that is less confident and another week's problem

These feel tonally jarring. I feel like sheep, as a townie, is probably pretty confident broadly. He certainly exuded that early on; I can link posts but early on he gave a lot of reads, analysis, and direction he wanted to go in. Now it's day 3 and he's saying maybe he'll vote fire, but actually maybe dunn, but actually it's dunn/fire or egix/aureal, all this after wanting to go after Aisa for a while and Idk. It just doesn't feel like he's looking at the game through the same pair of eyes he was on day 1. It feels like he should have more opinions on d3 than he had on d1, not fewer. It feels like he's scum who, on d1, had a lot of energy to put into this sort of thing, but that it naturally petered out on d2 and now he kind of doesn't know what he wants to do? I guess that sort of analysis can describe town in principle. I guess for whatever reason I just don't really buy his current set of opinions, how flexible they are, and how he came to them.

[fireisredsir]

ok wait if you actually are trusting aureal here i can try to case before i die, i kinda thought it would be obvious

[implosion]

The fact that there is absolutely no impetus toward limming fire today after what happened yesterday makes me want to revise my stance and agree with skitter/menalque that there is some weird unnatural resistance to limming fire right now. fire is the natural lim; there's been like semi-consensus on fire's slot being scum like twice and nothing happened either time + skitter as she was dying kept saying we need to look at fire (she also said she thought sheep looked even worse than fire but still).

imagine the world where i am town

what do you think scum does in that world?

especially if you, aisa, and mena are town, which i think you all are

scum is playing to ensure they win the game here, town will push me for them, their goal here is to make sure town doesn't find each other and come up with a correct solve, and to appear distanced from each other

if im scum i don't really think its worth it for them to try to stay off me. idk maybe they would, but i think it's at least pretty equal to what they will do with me being town

I really don't think scum would feel like they have to withhold from the wagon if you're town. They're probably not getting a ton of scum cred for joining it, I think, especially people who were voting you yesterday...

I'm not fully trusting Aureal right now; i just like Aureal more than Egix of the people Aisa has declared townreads on and I do need to do more work on both of them but am, for today, uninterested in limming them more or less

[fireisredsir]

i think scum sheep is good at doing the same kind of thing i like to do as scum which is just kinda vibe and display thought process and look towny by being open and indecisive

[fireisredsir]

i don't think they would feel like they have to withhold from the wagon, thats not really the point

its that they don't have to push it either

[sheepsaysmeep]

So sheep. Honestly, something about the way in which sheep is indecisive right now is really offputting to me. I generally tend to think changing your mind is more often than not something town do more compared to scum. But that's not really exactly what sheep is doing, sheep had this feeling Aisa might be scum but then abandoned that feeling when, tbh, nothing really changed. Yeah Aisa townposted more but it's not like Aisa townposted in a way that she wasn't already doing. It kind of feels like if sheep is town who thinks Aisa is town then he should have figured that out a long time ago, or at least like, I'm not sure why he changed his mind now except that he's scum who just realizes she's never a viable push.

Another thing is these posts from the past couple pages.

whatever maybe I'll just vote fire here

I feel myself caving

I very much feel dunn/fire right now but maybe that's just optimism speaking rather than good reason

the game is screaming to me rn that it's just dunn/fire or egix/aureal

and the third is probably just ceph?? but that is less confident and another week's problem

These feel tonally jarring. I feel like sheep, as a townie, is probably pretty confident broadly. He certainly exuded that early on; I can link posts but early on he gave a lot of reads, analysis, and direction he wanted to go in. Now it's day 3 and he's saying maybe he'll vote fire, but actually maybe dunn, but actually it's dunn/fire or egix/aureal, all this after wanting to go after Aisa for a while and Idk. It just doesn't feel like he's looking at the game through the same pair of eyes he was on day 1. It feels like he should have more opinions on d3 than he had on d1, not fewer. It feels like he's scum who, on d1, had a lot of energy to put into this sort of thing, but that it naturally petered out on d2 and now he kind of doesn't know what he wants to do? I guess that sort of analysis can describe town in principle. I guess for whatever reason I just don't really buy his current set of opinions, how flexible they are, and how he came to them.

this is fair lol

I very much play village endgames like this for the record

like it's just mixing and matching in my brain based on vibes and sudden moments of revelation

I dont know if I'd be able to find an actual example of this because of recent hiatus

maybe on a later day phase I'll search

[implosion]

fire, you can case Aureal if you want. If you're town and flip town and I'm alive tomorrow then I'll listen to it, certainly. But I think there's very little argumentation that you can do personally to convince me that you're not scum right now, and it's through no fault of your own if you're town, it's just that, like I said, I think I am predisposed to view your rhetorical style as town and I know you're capable of a lot of heavy lifting as scum so it's hard to give any actual >rand town weight to things you do that naturally ping me as town.

[Aisa]

Someone please reassure me I’m not crazy and I’ve definitely got the game completely solved :3

Someone? Anyone. Cmon. How is this not an attractive proposition?

I think for a while I was at
{implosion, Cephrir, Aureal}
{Menalque, sheep, Egix, fireisredsir, Dunn}

but Egixslot is actually definitely a townslot at least until I change my mind again and it's a stronger read than Ceph. If I swap those I get
{implosion, Egix, Aureal}
{Cephrir, Menalque, sheep, fireisredsir, Dunn}

and I think this also gives me more scumteam options I find compelling to play with

I'll need to mull on Egix.

Why is Menalque in your PoE? I think that he can be scum here but I think it's pretty rare.

If you have convincing reasons on Aureal and Egix then I'm definitely interested in hearing them. Is Egix based primarily on CSF?

Unrelatedly, there's a part of sheep's posting right now that kind of just makes me want to lim him today. 1761/1762 just feel very... exactly-the-thing-scum-has-to-post-here to me. Like it's just the only place he can naturally go now that Aisa is off the table. It feels kinda trite.

Yeah I’m not really sure why Mena is in the PoE either. I think his posting when he was talking to fire was probably a bit town indicative, but I probably wasn’t completely sold when I made the list and I haven’t re-evaluated since.

For Aureal I still stand by the reasoning here:

Spoiler:

Dunn I have an easy time justifying a scumread on to myself. Maybe the Andante spiel is +town, but it's just one action and I feel like the rest of his ISO comes down to vibes, and I don't even have a history of being very successful reading him on vibes.

I've thought about Aureal and rn I want to townread her for feeling similar to the one previous time I played with her, where she was town. I don't think there are actually any glaring ways she feels different from that game. I think her posting style should be quite demanding to reproduce as scum; it's quite dense. Good on her if she can mimic it so well on her first time rolling non-multiball scum, but I've decided I'm ok with townreading her for now.

If you want an example of what I mean about Aureal's posting style, see this post. She gives a lot of arguments pro / con the various slots.

P-edit: I'm trying to keep myself from writing long posts lol
this is one reason why I think another day of fire vs skitter would not be great, even though I don't mind the long posts personally. I'm aware a lot of people have complained about this recently.

Egix we’ll see if I feel inspired later today (lol @

convincing

reasons) but yes it is mostly based on CSF

[implosion]

I know you're capable of a lot of heavy lifting as scum

at least I think I know this, i don't actually remember where I know it from though.

[implosion]

(lol @convincing reasons)

i sort of meant this in a way of like, reasons that you find convincing to yourself :X

that reasoning on Aureal is, I think pretty decent, though obviously I don't have the same direct access to knowledge of vibes. It does kind of remind me of some correct meta townread that I was able to give on someone a long time ago (penguin specifically, in a game I just randomly nostaliga-reread recently). In that I think that sort of meta playstyle-townread on specifically a relatively new player (is Aureal relatively new? uhhh lmao 2005 join date nope oh well, maybe she just came back from a hiatus?) is pretty good, combined with playstyle being hard to fake is probably a solid foundation for a town case. But maybe if Aureal is really experienced it's less solid.

[Aisa]

(lol @convincing reasons)

i sort of meant this in a way of like, reasons that you find convincing to yourself :X

that reasoning on Aureal is, I think pretty decent, though obviously I don't have the same direct access to knowledge of vibes. It does kind of remind me of some correct meta townread that I was able to give on someone a long time ago (penguin specifically, in a game I just randomly nostaliga-reread recently). In that I think that sort of meta playstyle-townread on specifically a relatively new player (is Aureal relatively new? uhhh lmao 2005 join date nope oh well, maybe she just came back from a hiatus?) is pretty good, combined with playstyle being hard to fake is probably a solid foundation for a town case. But maybe if Aureal is really experienced it's less solid.

It does seem like she recently came back from a long hiatus. She seems to have a good number of town games under her belt since she’s come back but the only scum game I was able to find was that multiball game somewhere in my ISO.

[fireisredsir]

fire, you can case Aureal if you want. If you're town and flip town and I'm alive tomorrow then I'll listen to it, certainly. But I think there's very little argumentation that you can do personally to convince me that you're not scum right now, and it's through no fault of your own if you're town, it's just that, like I said, I think I am predisposed to view your rhetorical style as town and I know you're capable of a lot of heavy lifting as scum so it's hard to give any actual >rand town weight to things you do that naturally ping me as town.

im very aware lol, i haven't really been expecting to convince anyone not to flip me for a long time now

[fireisredsir]

i don't think that aureal's attempts at looking like she's solving in this game come remotely close to what she looks like as town so im still really confused how you come to that conclusion

[sheepsaysmeep]

holy shit 2005

[fireisredsir]

Something feels weird about Aureal vs Cephrir, from a skim exactly 0 players who are not called Aureal or Cephrir seem to have used it as a reason to scumread either Aureal or Cephrir and I wonder why that is.

i thought aureal was p scummy in it but idk its one of those things where i don't really know how to explain why its scummy if nobody else sees it