Open 878: Scarfolk Council | The End

[sheepsaysmeep]

[unv][/unv]

[sheepsaysmeep]

UNVOTE:

goddamnit

[Aisa]

Spoiler:

If he's scum it seems like his only strategy has been to talk expend effort talking about how towny certain people are and how hard this game is to solve. This... just doesn't seem like scum behaviour.

I think this is pretty reasonable. It's entirely possible that I'm being too obstinate. But I do still hold reservations; I think if fire got to today as scum, this is how fire would play today as scum. My impression of fire is biased in many ways, part of which is because I perceive fire as approaching the game of mafia in some ways similar to how I do, in that fire if scum is sort of trying to make the locally next best move without needing to think about the bigger picture necessarily because the bigger picture for fire is that fire needs to get townread and the way to do that is to act, in each moment, how fire would act as town. And I think fire, if scum, thinks that fire, as town, would just be going along like they've been doing in this day.

I do sort of wonder what they'd say about their own meta in this regard/if they think this is how they'd be playing today as scum.

The bolded is false, hopefully this should be clear with the quote surgery I've done. I don't think I need to explain why someone forgetting what they've said is a little worrying.

It's a little worrying but I think there is also possibly some +town justification in it; in particular I think carelessness is townish as scum probably on average tend to be more careful to not say something factually wrong because it's their entire job. I guess this case is sort of a strange thing to forget that she had written. Idk, I don't put a ton of stock into this bit.

These are (IMO) some key moments in her trajectory today. 1. "let's talk not auto-elim fire", 2. pushes Ceph, 3. when I tell her that Ceph seems town she seems very happy to change back onto fire again. I'm specifically worried by the "I don't see how it's compatible but if you do I'll let it go"; this isn't how I would react I think. Usually when a player I respect disagrees with me I consider the merits of what they said to determine what to do. Sometimes there's some angst because I might find it hard to go against them. Here we have the opposite: she seems quite confident in disagreeing with me, but still lets it go and is quite happy to switch onto fire.

This... strikes me as how I'd instinctively play today if I were scum and fire was town. And also very much not how I'd want to play if I were scum with fire.

(Which brings up an interesting point: maybe if we eliminate Aureal today and she is scum, then her interactions with fire can help take the sting out of our collective paranoia of fire.)

Feedback please

I think this point has merit. I do think it's possible for Aureal to be doing this with both her and fire as scum; I think if fire is scum then scum will feel like they need at least one person bussing, because there'd probably be a bit of doom in the air around fire's slot and someone would need to capitalize on that. Like Menalque, one of the townbloc, was talking about how if we don't lim fire today we ought to be autolimming fire tomorrow or whatever (don't quote me on this, idr the exact phrasing)

Well, I appreciate you cooling my enthusiasm a little. I think these all valid points.

One new angle I've decided might be interesting is... the choice to prioritise investigating if he feels good "confidently clearing" you/implosion and me. That feels like it must have been a very... calculated choice? idk how to explain this, my intuition is just telling me there may be something interesting there. I kind of wonder if there's more town or scum motivation behind a choice like that.

[sheepsaysmeep]

tbh my interpretation of that is that it's the right thing to do here. like focusing on the towncore and ensuring that you feel good about it is what I'd expect town in that situation to start with, and I think fire also sees it as what town would do here so I think it's NAI

[sheepsaysmeep]

fire coming into today and being like "ive realized this person, bob, is a wolf" and pummeling them and casing them would never have saved himself over bob

the only way to possibly save himself is to do like a full re-eval solve of the whole game

a full re-eval solve of the whole game starts with double-checking the townreads

[Aisa]

tbh my interpretation of that is that it's the right thing to do here. like focusing on the towncore and ensuring that you feel good about it is what I'd expect town in that situation to start with, and I think fire also sees it as what town would do here so I think it's NAI

fire coming into today and being like "ive realized this person, bob, is a wolf" and pummeling them and casing them would never have saved himself over bob

the only way to possibly save himself is to do like a full re-eval solve of the whole game

a full re-eval solve of the whole game starts with double-checking the townreads

Maybe? I kinda see what you mean though it's not obvious to me that a full re-eval solve of the whole game has better chances of saving him in this situation

[Aisa]

VOTE: Aureal
I started writing half of this thought dump like 12 hours ago and it's... interesting to see what has happened in the interim

How my thoughts got to this point

(skip if walls make you sad)

Spoiler:

It seems like I somehow tricked you suckers into hard townlocking me, so I can skip the step where I apologise for being chaotic bwahahahaha

Anyway. fire doesn't seem all that scummy anymore. I thought his initial meta on me was extremely flimsy, and once I locked in {implosion Aureal Egix} as town there weren't many other places where it made sense to me to eliminate anyway. But his updated meta is better, and he didn't continue pushing me. That got me thinking about how it doesn't feel like he's been pushing any sort of agenda today. He hasn't really proposed an alternative solve, or done anything. If he's scum it seems like his only strategy has been to talk expend effort talking about how towny certain people are and how hard this game is to solve. This... just doesn't seem like scum behaviour.

I still have worries, of course. I'm worried about how bad for the gamestate (sorry) fire vs skitter was if it was a TvT. I'd need to reread that to get a better sense of whether it was something fire accidentally got sucked into (better).

I also have worries about my new push. For a while in my head Aureal was the mafia industrial complex's chosen mislim, and I still worry that I am playing into that. It feels like this is an elimination that might actually

happen

. Could it be that easy...? If Mena and implosion are town where is the opposition to the wagon...? But maybe it is that easy, I don't think it's possible to tell right now.

A.

You have totally lost me here. I keep getting reassured that you're town because you keep finding ways to track my thoughts well but you're way off here. I don't understand why you don't think fire's behavior can be scum there. And more distressingly, I don't understand why you were worried I was the "chosen mislim" because I have not felt that way at all. Up until this point I have not felt at any real risk of being miseliminated. So this feels alarmingly like preemptive self-defense.

Spoiler:

Ok, the promised post on Aureal
[...]

Spoiler:

[...]
I'm watching implosion be a clear driver of the wagon on Enchant and going "scum wouldn't be

that

brazen... Right?" So I'm not like totally sold on implosion, it is kinda weird that there's apparently no counterwagoning, but probably not a Mafia slot?
[...]

The reads on Mena and implosion are both kind of hedgy.

- Feel free to address any of my megapost!

[...]
The Mena/implosion hedging I'm not completely sure what you mean?

I don't even talk about implosion in the post you cite.

I think I worded my comment about Mena poorly though - I was saying that we could consider Mena as being on the Enchant wagon (as implosion had suggested in 949 and I was vaguely remembering since I was reading some new stuff as I did my catch-up). Not anything about Menalque's alignment- I was putting him down as town for that and the read has only gotten stronger since to where he's my strongest townread.
[...]

The bolded is false, hopefully this should be clear with the quote surgery I've done. I don't think I need to explain why someone forgetting what they've said is a little worrying.

1) There's no bolding so I'm not entirely sure what you're talking about.
2) I'm going to assume it's the implosion thing because I went back to those posts and I think it's pretty clear that I didn't understand what you were referring to and was responding in response to the post you quoted

below

your comment, not the one above it, which does have me talking about implosion unlike the one below it.
3) If this was unclear, why wait so damn long to bring it up. That feels like a gotcha attempt.
4) I lost the beginning of this post and had to re-write it because I clicked back to read yours again and then clicked the link to find the post in question and read it to figure out what was going on...

These are (IMO) some key moments in her trajectory today. 1. "let's talk not auto-elim fire", 2. pushes Ceph, 3. when I tell her that Ceph seems town she seems very happy to change back onto fire again. I'm specifically worried by the "I don't see how it's compatible but if you do I'll let it go"; this isn't how I would react I think. Usually when a player I respect disagrees with me I consider the merits of what they said to determine what to do. Sometimes there's some angst because I might find it hard to go against them. Here we have the opposite: she seems quite confident in disagreeing with me, but still lets it go and is quite happy to switch onto fire.

B.

You think I was pushing Ceph? I was pushing fire well before that, during that, and after that. That was not a switch. I was never voting Cephrir. That was a "fire is scummy oh and hey look Ceph is being weird too, could be a partner?" I found fire's commentary there to be most out of line with reality, not Ceph's. My perception of Ceph's day two goes something like: feuds with skitter-> nitpicks me over what he and implosion were doing with Enchant-> complains about not being into this game and it sucks and he doesn't wanna have to think-> hammers skitter. Nothing about trying to start counter-wagons in it. And I was apparently one that he was trying to start, that's the sort of thing I tend to notice! That's how crappy of an attempt to wagon someone else it was, the target didn't even notice it.

And you're misrepresenting what I did, too. You said that you understood Ceph's position that I was arguing about. When someone else says they understand the position that you do not understand, does that not make you think maybe the position isn't as outlandish as you thought? I did not switch from pushing Ceph, I stopped arguing that point (mostly). I think it's clear from our brief exchange afterwards that I did not just simply accept your position that Ceph

is town

, I just moved on from that particular argument.

A. I mean, I am not totally ruling out that fire can be scum here by any means. I am, however, impressed by the amount of effort that's gone into e.g. the meta case on me especially if he's not even gonna push me based on it by the end.
The reason I felt that you might have been the "chosen mislim" is that at least fire and Ceph were pushing you. Put it another way - if fire is scum and was trying to push a mislim, who was he pushing if not you? I did not mean "chosen mislim" in a sense that it necessarily had to be a successful effort to get you miseliminated - think of it as "scum-driven counterwagon", I guess.

1) my bad. I've bolded it now just in case that makes it easier for future readers...
2) ok, I suppose that makes sense
3) initially I thought you'd just made an honest mistake. Then I got more worried and decided to bring it up, I guess. Especially as I thought of a couple other posts I wasn't sure about so it started to seem more like part of a significant pattern rather than a one-off.
4) sorry

B. Ok. I think that all possibly makes sense? I need to think about it.

[Aisa]

Okay so big condition to this is that I’m not caught up properly — in fact if there’s anything major that happened during absence that would be helpful if I could be pointed in that direction — but I think even in a world where fire is town he’s still the objectively best lim here because if he’s town then that gives the most information on trying to figure out what scum were doing the past 2 days

I think it’s more likely that skitt was a scum driven CW and that scum are resisting bussing today in the hopes of the wagon diverting elsewhere but if he isn’t scum then is anyone seriously wanting to bet the game on fire town tomorrow as well after two days of steadfast resistance and, in this scenario, two counter wagons flipping town?

If you *are* willing to bet the game on fire!town and also wouldn’t lim him tomorrow the justification should be rock solid and it should be presented now

If we lim town today and it's a 3-person scumteam I consider the game basically lost. Of course we should play on tomorrow for the 23% chance it's only a 2-person scumteam. But just to say that I'm not an "even if fire is town" gal.

In terms of major events, fire claimed townie (I forget if he already claimed this yesterday?)
And idk some reads have shifted, everyone seems more interested in Aureal?
Seconding that Ceph should explain why fire is town if he feels so strongly about it

why is the game basically lost? it's just Elo everyday from that point on, that's not lost by any means

thank you for the recap on what's been going on

Oh just because the EV of mountainous 4v3 is pretty low - 5.7% for town. (For some reason I thought it was 3%? Which would have been even worse)

[Aisa]

All I want is a clever SE to solve the game and tell me who to eliminate today, but I guess that's not happening
This game makes me tingly like acupuncture rn

[Aisa]

Hmm fire you know my woo reaction test? Why do you find that towny?

[Aureal]

Okay so big condition to this is that I’m not caught up properly — in fact if there’s anything major that happened during absence that would be helpful if I could be pointed in that direction — but I think even in a world where fire is town he’s still the objectively best lim here because if he’s town then that gives the most information on trying to figure out what scum were doing the past 2 days

I think it’s more likely that skitt was a scum driven CW and that scum are resisting bussing today in the hopes of the wagon diverting elsewhere but if he isn’t scum then is anyone seriously wanting to bet the game on fire town tomorrow as well after two days of steadfast resistance and, in this scenario, two counter wagons flipping town?

If you *are* willing to bet the game on fire!town and also wouldn’t lim him tomorrow the justification should be rock solid and it should be presented now

If we lim town today and it's a 3-person scumteam I consider the game basically lost. Of course we should play on tomorrow for the 23% chance it's only a 2-person scumteam. But just to say that I'm not an "even if fire is town" gal.

In terms of major events, fire claimed townie (I forget if he already claimed this yesterday?)
And idk some reads have shifted, everyone seems more interested in Aureal?
Seconding that Ceph should explain why fire is town if he feels so strongly about it

why is the game basically lost? it's just Elo everyday from that point on, that's not lost by any means

thank you for the recap on what's been going on

Oh just because the EV of mountainous 4v3 is pretty low - 5.7% for town. (For some reason I thought it was 3%? Which would have been even worse)

So, uh, why would we assume mountainous? It would only be mountainous if there's only one more PR and they get killed. There could be plenty of PRs out there yet.

[Umlaut]

Vote Count 3.6

Between 1970 and 1976 the government vastly overspent on state and private prisons and was disheartened when crime didn’t rise to match the amounts being invested to control it.

Local councils were directed to encourage criminal activity but when they also failed to produce the required crime figures, the government’s Office of Spurious Welfare developed a scheme to attract new offenders.

It targeted the aspirational lower-middle class by shrewdly portraying lawbreaking as an upwardly mobile activity and prison sentences as socially desirable. Pro-jail messages were subliminally printed on fake antiques, mass-produced Royal memorabilia and incorporated into newspaper Sunday supplement competitions for dream cottages in the country (see above).

Emergency laws were also made to ensure that crime would become more prevalent. One law, the so-called Passerby Criminal Indolence Law, which is still in effect today, penalises people who refrain from committing a crime when the opportunity arises, even if they could have got away with it.

---

Aureal (2):

Cephrir, Aisa

sheepsaysmeep (2):

implosion, Aureal

fireisredsir (1):

Menalque

Egix96 (1):

Dunnstral

Not voting (3):

fireisredsir, Ydrasse, sheepsaysmeep

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to launch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2023-06-24 17:55:00)

[Umlaut]

Cephrir was prodded.

[Aisa]

Okay so big condition to this is that I’m not caught up properly — in fact if there’s anything major that happened during absence that would be helpful if I could be pointed in that direction — but I think even in a world where fire is town he’s still the objectively best lim here because if he’s town then that gives the most information on trying to figure out what scum were doing the past 2 days

I think it’s more likely that skitt was a scum driven CW and that scum are resisting bussing today in the hopes of the wagon diverting elsewhere but if he isn’t scum then is anyone seriously wanting to bet the game on fire town tomorrow as well after two days of steadfast resistance and, in this scenario, two counter wagons flipping town?

If you *are* willing to bet the game on fire!town and also wouldn’t lim him tomorrow the justification should be rock solid and it should be presented now

If we lim town today and it's a 3-person scumteam I consider the game basically lost. Of course we should play on tomorrow for the 23% chance it's only a 2-person scumteam. But just to say that I'm not an "even if fire is town" gal.

In terms of major events, fire claimed townie (I forget if he already claimed this yesterday?)
And idk some reads have shifted, everyone seems more interested in Aureal?
Seconding that Ceph should explain why fire is town if he feels so strongly about it

why is the game basically lost? it's just Elo everyday from that point on, that's not lost by any means

thank you for the recap on what's been going on

Oh just because the EV of mountainous 4v3 is pretty low - 5.7% for town. (For some reason I thought it was 3%? Which would have been even worse)

So, uh, why would we assume mountainous? It would only be mountainous if there's only one more PR and they get killed. There could be plenty of PRs out there yet.

The EV of mountainous is much easier to calculate than the EV of a non-mountainous game while being a reasonable approximation.

[Cephrir]

I got prodded because I didn't see the point in obnoxiously calling for aureal's blood every so often and that's all I have to add

[sheepsaysmeep]

I got prodded because I didn't see the point in obnoxiously calling for aureal's blood every so often and that's all I have to add

can u do a bit more if u have time I grapple with my read on u sometimes

[sheepsaysmeep]

it's like the day before lylo

[Cephrir]

Idk this strategy seems to be working out for me

[sheepsaysmeep]

how do u feel about fire

[sheepsaysmeep]

or about a lim on me which it seems might happen

[sheepsaysmeep]

VOTE: fire

I dunno man

[Ydrasse]

And I read the post before, I mean I want you to cite the exact posts where fire is being objectively villagery

idk maybe there's nothing there if others dont see it lol. I just think his vibe is extremely villagery. villagery thought processes + very unafraid to engage with people + lots of WIM. I think he's had a pro-town effect on the game with how I had completely no motivation until fireisredsir entered and im like oh shit now we really have a game now theres good stuff. I have by far the best gut/natural reaction to his posting in this game before I process it and am like eh fine a wolf can do that. I would feel better about the wagon on him if it acknowledges those aspects of his play that I think look good (idk if it does that yet, I still havent read very in-depth and citing the specific posts u want rn feels weird cuz of that lolz. it's an eager open approach to the game thing

VOTE: sheepsaysmeep

[fireisredsir]

Hmm fire you know my woo reaction test? Why do you find that towny?

it seemed like something that the town bunny in the field running around pushing buttons would do

there's just like an eagerness to solve the game and inquisitiveness behind it (which i think is also recognizable without meta)

it's not like it's something that's impossible for scum to fake it's just that idk if scum would even think of it?

i don't think it's a particularly strong part of my read anymore i admit i was being somewhat lazy before by townbinning mostly off that, i feel better about my reasons now

[fireisredsir]

i would like to hear from dunn about ydra bc i think despite my general wariness of her i am finding it hard not to believe what she's pointing out and i would like to at least hear an alternate viewpoint

[Ydrasse]

ya idk i was reading around wagonstuff and that post with the vote here is like

sheep is just doing the same thing they did last game i think where they called someone super towny but the reasoning wasn't like, great
i think in the other game it wasn't as strong as that post which makes it weirder that they have like just abandoned that viewpoint to vote here