Open 878: Scarfolk Council | The End

[Cephrir]

prepare for a stack of waffles that will probably make you want to vote me

I think CSF is towny

I did an ISO too so cool u can pass day 1

Why do u think csf is townie?

idk there was just a v large quantity of thoughts that I really like

I think what bothered me about not engaging with major thread stuff is no longer valid; she had firm decent stances on all my major wolfreads etc

and generally her remarks just feel authentic/un-agenda'd; idk how to explain this vibe well but there's like a good mix of consensus and anti-consensusness

feels a little not partnered with csf

iyam

theres scum in the recent pivot to dunnstral, even if enchant is town lol

because enchant seems perceptibly the objectively optimal lim today. via consensus reads + theyre not doing legit stuff

like Even if dunn is scummy and even if dunn is wolf lol, enchant should be resolved

the movement around is such a strange show-y response to enchant not being villagery

I was actually feeling weird about dunn lol

but like

not really interested in even pondering that rn

d1 is slugging

is this like, setting up for a future dunn scum flip while also not wanting it to happen right away

Hello darlin'. What can I help you with today

Damn
Would you like me to ask you a question or would that make it worse

Keep in mind that if you choose "make it worse" at some point I may decide you don't get a choice and ask the question anyway

enchant is an open wolf here please take the freebie

Great! I have assigned you a question. Your question is: was there anything behind your conviction here, except implosion's case?

VOTE: Enchant

Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.

I have also assigned you a question, dear. Your question is: see question above

I think one thing I’m curious about,

@implosion

, is why you decided to make your case 24 hours after Enchant subbed in. Did you ever think about waiting a bit longer to see if Enchant would do something before accusing him? How certain were you that he was going to flip scum?

this is aisa coming into today clearly prepping to push the notion that the enchant wagon was scum-driven but scared to actually say it out loud like other people, which I would have believed more

Though I sympathise with what other people have been saying about Enchant meta, I think his alignment was ambiguous and I don't really blame people for wanting to flip there

this I just do not believe side-by-side with the agenda of the SoD questions

if you were ever worried about aisa: don't be

I like fire's skitter read, at a quick skim. I think it's vaguely similar to mild paranoia ive been wanting to articulate that her reads are too static?
like for example, she first put CSF at wolf for a minor thing. then she keeps repeating here and there that she thinks CSF is a wolf, but many many people have expressed a different opinion and she doesn't engage with it. she asked me why I townread CSF, didnt rly do anything with the response; tons of other people say "I townread CSF" and skitter disagrees but just doesn't rly interact. I think something similar happened with Andante, where first she developed a push on Andante, then a bunch of people went "I feel like this is town for andante?" sorta stuff and I dont feel skitter faced that enough and instead just kept maintaining a rigid andante!wolf

when I saw fire talking about skitter I liked fire more, it feels like we're somewhattt poking at a similar thing

i could see this as a pocket attempt, though i guess fire has made points to the effect that pocketing someone who's already on death row isn't really a thing

maybe i should see whether sheep could ever have made fire dead and declined to do so... i feel like probably yes?

skitter:
I have like 7 more pages I want to read and I think I can do it soon, and then I can probably better answer your question about whether I'd vote fire

idk it's a weird question. I cant promise I'd vote him because my instinct finds him mildly more likely town due to similar gamestate feels and stuff, the wagon feels a bit weird and I just don't rly find myself really convinced by things ppl have said.

I can say like I'd re-think him, I'd feel worse about him. I've already been thinking like, it makes some sense to resolve him because a lot of my townreads just want it dead, which would be reinforced with your flip lol. I think sometimes in a game it's owed to flipped villagers to kill their strongest wolfread. but ive had this conversation before where like, someone (mu champs winner) said that a villager died and had said "please kill this person" so now we need to kill that person, and I refused to forego my minor townread on the person, and we agreed to disagree, this seems similar

feel like there's just a blank space where there should be a real opinion about fire's alignment

I was going to write about aureal being wolfy but that post resolves a lot of my concerns

this game is just fucked so weird

You've got some pretty weird progression on my slot, lol. Here, I just ISOed you, here's a few of my thoughts to which I'll add that.

votes Drew in 240, no reasoning given and I'm not seeing anything coming soon afterwards
poking skeptically at other people like Alianna (108, 242) CSF (241), Woo (311, 313), Aisa (401, 482, 487) but apparently not skeptical enough to move off the unexplained Drew vote
tries to ask people about skitter, has expressed no read (495, 555)
566 is a readlist with Drew at the bottom, still no explanation for that, just feels confident (655, 665)
then 874 and 875 basically just say Enchant should be resolved, still only because "not doing legit stuff"
D2 opening is weird, thinks Aisa's movements at end of D1 is wolfy and I've no idea why
lots more concern about Aisa throughout the day, pulling back a bit (1135, 1323)
read on CSF keeps going back and forth
doubt about fire wagon, doubt about skitter, townreads me for no reason (1367) and just now expresses worry that was never expressed prior but it's okay because my post cleared it up

can you talk about why u think some of these things like weird progression are wolfy? or lacking explanation?

I guess I mostly see why they would seem intuitively so lol but I feel like this altogether is presented too indirectly. it would help read u if you can sort of make like another linking step

I was going to write about aureal being wolfy but that post resolves a lot of my concerns

this game is just fucked so weird

This is more for a future day, but what concerns did you have, and how did Aureals post resolve them?

I felt like they were hinting at wariness about the fire wagon but not being outright enough. struggling to find the words to describe it rn; like shading the fire wagon. like when I felt weird about the fire wagon (first I talked about how I felt about the wagon and then I saw aureal's earlier posts) I feel like I did it much more directly. the recent post is like definitely very direct and I think her concerns about red wagon are pretty similar to what my concerns were lol with some differences but similar enough that it's like a mind meld

...i guess im just quoting these for those on the go to see if they can make anything of it wrt aureal's alignment. i'm not sure i can. i wanted to suggest a partnership but im not confident it's that indicative

I sorta wolfread pushes like that that are just like "this person did this and that" and the implication is that those are wolfy things, for things I think are stereotypically wolfy but imo aren't actually wolfy, like flip floppy progressions etc.

like it can easily reveal wolfiness with further depth, like if the jolting around fits with agenda / thread sentiment but I dislike selling it like that at face value

So, just checking, you're not feeling Aureal as town anymore?

I rly have no idea about that slot lol, I need to ISO it sometime but like probably not this day cuz it doesnt matter we shouldn't CFD at this point

if we lim fire and fire flips town I would townread the slot but fire actually makes a really good point about avoiding skitter so possibly nvm

this i think maybe bodes a little worse for aureal
maybe her side of their later interaction is more telling here idk

if anything I think dunn being so unexplained lurking-in-the-shadows says town-dunn to me lmao but thats leaning into gutty reads to ideally not rely on mid-game

wow this dude hates having opinions

aureal - purest tone ive played with in a long time which is +town

but I keep coming to that push on me as a little bad faith. I think "sheep hasn't been explaining things and his contributions have started lacking" feels weird to assert like that because it ignores context. at first, I was definitely not what theyre describing, I started the game pretty thorough. then, I was like we just need to kill enchant here lol--which could be wolfy, but it completely explains what theyre describing. then, I outright say, im lacking motivation for this game and not going to do much, which could be wolfy, but it explains what theyre describing. to the point where it's wolfy to just be like "sheep is doing these things, these are wolfy things so obv sheep is a wolf"

what do we like less, a lack of opinion with any conviction (fire, maybe dunn) or whatever the hell this is

for example

off the top of my head I had been thinking about how dunn/egix isnt teamed

I dont think aureal -> dunn can be on a team together either

I feel like im not w/w with aureal, her shade of me was goofers

I feel like these sorts of nuances should maybe throw into question a little more your 90% confident group of only 4

this post is a doozy of trying to sow doubt in a townblock. it's probably right. maybe someone else can divine more from this post

I think dunn is the wolfiest slot and I think aureal/egix are the next wolfiest slots

this comes out of nowhere afaict

Maybe I’d rather move to Dunn if aureal wants to try it lol

I’m just lazy

now we're townreading aureal??

off of a reallyyy lazy meta skim of aureal I think I feel worse about her

viewtopic.php?t=90918

this is the wolfgame I read; my first thoughts were

-shit she's very capable of faking all the things ive liked
-she seems less in-depth, more aggro, lots of questions

viewtopic.php?sid=&f=84&t=90508&user_select%5B%5D=1446

this is the villa game I read

this made me think she is more like her wolf meta here. she is just more like, mild and working with people and asking them for collaboration. I think as wolf she attacks fairly aggressively and asks people things with a see-able goal of "how will I make this person look wolf," (which I sorta think has been in this game) and as town she works more with others than I think ive seen here.

granted I skimmed very quickly

why did user sheepsaysmeep feel the need to metadive aureal at this moment?

one big thing is that I think Dunn's treatment of fire is pretty bad

he has been defending fire without expressing a townread there

first more subtly by being like we gotta do egix et al. today, and then like I prefer these people over voting dunn, and then it's not working so he's more outright like I want to not lim fire

I think if he Townreads fire he should say words explaining it to more firmly actually defend his townread fire

I think if he doesn't townread fire he should get the approach of people like implosion/menal/ sort of me now more. the reasons to resolve him + like, some part of me hoped to be compelled by him today but I just struggle to be compelled by him today. I feel like implo's perspective on why to steamroll him makes more sense than dunn acts like he gets

i think he's more than once paired fire with dunn so i feel like it can't be both of them

sheep, what do you think the implications of an Aureal townflip would be?

I think I would always feel a need to resolve the cephrir this game--idk how likely I actually think that he is wolf but just from a concrete standpoint of in lylo, what things has each person done and how pro-town were they in hindsight

I would have said fire wolf a day ago but honestly fmpov his EoD just feels town so I would reflect on that overnight

probably dunn looks a bit bad from the way he's dancing around clearly choosing between all of us ?? me/aureal as well as fire
he has just given no meaningful stances about it despite indicating preferences

im town lmao

[Cephrir]

I'm not willing to townlean anyone on the basis of "has reads" but I guess I won't complain about it too much.

this stuff felt slightly wolf to me at surface level.

"I won't complain about it too much" just feels like a wolf perspective in a way that I could see alianna slipping up. either about some correct townreads or wanting to get townread herself for an active start

the idea of town complaining about some page 2 reads just doesnt make sense to me, even if u disagree with the reads.

what I would expect town to do is like, evaluate implosion's alignment based on that

, which doesn't happen;

this post also assumes implosion town in a +0.05% wolf way

idk ive been back and forth on this

How am I supposed to evaluate someone's alignment off "X and Y are towny" with no reasoning? There really wasn't much to sort in the post. Even though I had a guess about the reasoning, I didn't find it AI. I just disagreed with it.

How does it do that?

i thought this interaction (pink mainly) was really silly at the time and now i wonder if it's silly because it's a forced effort at interaction

can u briefly talk abt drew too lol

do u townread him or does it just seem meh cuz out of nowhere

Mostly because it's out of nowhere.
I do still have him above the null line though because I still like that read from Aisa.

I'm also noticing a slight tone difference from when I was scum with her, but I can't really put it into words yet. I know that's not exactly helpful, just going to note it anyway.

I am curious if u can link this game pls. tho I prob wont read super in depth

viewtopic.php?t=90462
We were both part of the Dei Ex Machina hydra. I was Nyx, she was Morta, and our third partner was Janus.

these as well i could see being forced interactions they're very milquetoast

[Cephrir]

im not rereading fire lol

alianna/delta were still scum tho. i'm gonna feel a little stupid if i was right all along about that

[Cephrir]

And the reason I am complaining about you two is because I am thinking that you two are town. I don't really care that egix is doing nothing today and placed the weakest omgus vote of all time then disappeared because yeah they're probably mafia anyway. Aureal kind of feels like they have an agenda but I think I would eliminate sheepsaysmeep before Aureal at this point as I have been growing increasingly suspicious of them.

Hey nice timing fire

I read up on everything and I think that Aureal looks worse than Sheep over the past few pages. Though implosion has a point in 2299.

Aureal's vote switch to sheep back in 2063 and explanation and now their current posting is stuff that makes me feel like they are mafia.

I've convinced myself so I will vote.

VOTE: Aureal

[Cephrir]

who is ur conclusion about who to lim next? cephrir?

LOOK GUYS AUREAL DIDN'T NUMERICALLY ORDER HER POE LIST LOL SO SCUMMY

NVM HOW OBVIOUSLY WE AREN'T GONNA LISTEN TO HER ANYWAY, AFTER ALL WE DIDN'T BOTHER LISTENING TO SKITTER AND PEOPLE ACTUALLY RESPECT HER TOWN GAME UNLIKE AUREAL'S

this post seems even worse now

[Cephrir]

VOTE: sheepsaysmeep

Psst, implosion, can I just join you there and not worry about finding whatever it was that was making me feel better about sheep bc I just really wanna crash and eat dinner now

Okay I'm just gonna do it.

VOTE: sheepsaysmeep

Didn't go through stuff but from memory, besides the posting at the end of the day two that I mentioned then, I thought that sheep's attempt to meta case me and subsequent fail in calling a town game a scum game seemed somewhat unlikely to come from scum. Both for the effort and the obvious screw up. Could be theater though, it did get called out right away.

And sheep's posting where he strongly took up my idea about nobody even trying to distance from Egix's slot was... Interesting. I wouldn't say I liked it, but I did take note of it. Usually when I throw out an oddball idea like that, people think it's terrible, not decide to champion it.

So I guess if that's all I can think of, it's not feeling nearly as convincing now after seeing sheep vote me without much actual reason and then now this weird shift to fire, whom gamestate is making me more concerned about being town.

???????

i wonder if this whole fight was intentional tbh

[Cephrir]

VOTE: fire i guess

[Aureal]

Ceph's waffles are tasty.

I don't see much to gain from mass claiming at this point other than curiosity satisfaction (I know there's one specific thing I'm curious about!) but it seems like people are ready so I'm not really opposed either.

[Aureal]

I was gonna ask Ceph if he thinks fire is scum, but I guess the vote answers that? I guess I'll just let him think about that potential team a little more for the moment.

[Cephrir]

im unaware of what makes that team impossible, but even so, dont expect me to preflip anyone ever it's not gonna happen

[Aureal]

Who do you feel were the possible day three flips?

I'm not going to do a line by line response from my phone but the waffles post did make me feel a little better still about fire because it reminded me that sheep was expressing a mind meld with me earlier, so doing the same with fire later indicates to me more likelihood of sheep just stealing reasoning from townies. And I hadn't quite realized just how much until I was reading that post where you brought up a bunch.

[Aureal]

VOTE: Dunnstral

[Menalque]

Aisa is definitely town, aureal is v likely town by virtue of being the CW, it’s possible ydra is scum who bussed but more likely is that both scum were defending sheep I think

Which makes it fire + (ceph/dunn)

The fact that ceph is trying to angle for a lim on aureal here instead of limming on the CW to sheep makes me think it’s more likely him vs dunn but I need to read them both in ISO to check that

Also while I think fire is the absolute right play for today we shouldn’t rush day

You need a way better reason to clear aureal

Do I? Cause I really think “was on scum wagon while flipped scum was on her wagon” is a pretty strong argument for not killing her

When the scum wagon was pretty heavily town driven, unless you want to argue that both aureal and ydrasse are scum in which case go ahead but it’d better be incredibly compelling

[Menalque]

Yeah, we should claim today

Probably this order:

Fire — VT
Ceph — VT
Dunn —
Aureal —
Ydra —
Me —
Aisa —

If anyone wants to object to this tell me why this is not my exact preferred order but it’s what I figured would be palatable to the collective

[Dunnstral]

And the reason I am complaining about you two is because I am thinking that you two are town. I don't really care that egix is doing nothing today and placed the weakest omgus vote of all time then disappeared because yeah they're probably mafia anyway. Aureal kind of feels like they have an agenda but I think I would eliminate sheepsaysmeep before Aureal at this point as I have been growing increasingly suspicious of them.

Hey nice timing fire

I read up on everything and I think that Aureal looks worse than Sheep over the past few pages. Though implosion has a point in 2299.

Aureal's vote switch to sheep back in 2063 and explanation and now their current posting is stuff that makes me feel like they are mafia.

I've convinced myself so I will vote.

VOTE: Aureal

:shifty:

If you go further back you will see that I narrowed it down to those two rather than Fireisredsir while they were being pushed. I just thought Aureal was more likely at the end of the last day.

[Dunnstral]

I am VT.

[Aisa]

That massclaim order, is, indeed, palatable to me but I'm interested to see if it is to other people

I'm generally pretty in favour of having enough of a waiting time that anyone can object to massclaim, but given that we've already started it and that enough people seem in favour that we could overrule the opposition, maybe we should just accept we're gonna finish what Ceph started here.

P-edit: oh we're clearly in the midst of the massclaim now lol ok good

the argument for killing fire is very simple:

fire!slots predecessors were scummy

fire was CW by a town wagon that was backed by scum who resisted pushing him

fire wouldn't get traction and was defended by scum

fire voted for town > voting for scum yesterday

is it possible that fire is town? yes

is it massively more likely he's scum? yes

is it pretty much the objectively correct play to kill him? also yes

I'm generally wary of wagonomics in a vacuum, but given my reads on the people who were on Aureal vs sheep yesterday I think there might be some truth in this

[Aureal]

Sounds like a fine plan to me.

Pedit: ok, cool, I am also VT as per my meta.

[Aisa]

Claims so far:
fire - VT
Ceph - VT
Dunn - VT
Aura - VT
Ydra
Mena
Aisa
^ (Mena's proposed massclaim order which everyone has been fine with so far) (I had to make up a 4-letter nickname for Aureal to not ruin the pattern)

[Aisa]

I too think Aureal looks a bit townier in light of the flip. Two reasons for this:
1. I don't think her behaviour towards sheep looked especially partnered,
2. Just knowing that sheep was mafia kinda snaps me out of the trance of "Aureal might be scum!!1" and, I think, takes power out of the case on Aureal.

It's heartening to see that Ceph's newest posts also have a sense of this

2. Because aureal's meltdown makes even more sense if her partner is getting run up too

I still wanna ask why you think / thought this

[Aisa]

Also, Ceph, when did you change your mind on me? It sort of happened without me noticing at the time, lol

Spoiler:

Hello darlin'. What can I help you with today

Damn
Would you like me to ask you a question or would that make it worse

Keep in mind that if you choose "make it worse" at some point I may decide you don't get a choice and ask the question anyway

enchant is an open wolf here please take the freebie

Great! I have assigned you a question. Your question is: was there anything behind your conviction here, except implosion's case?

VOTE: Enchant

Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.

I have also assigned you a question, dear. Your question is: see question above

I think one thing I’m curious about,

@implosion

, is why you decided to make your case 24 hours after Enchant subbed in. Did you ever think about waiting a bit longer to see if Enchant would do something before accusing him? How certain were you that he was going to flip scum?

this is aisa coming into today clearly prepping to push the notion that the enchant wagon was scum-driven but scared to actually say it out loud like other people, which I would have believed more

Though I sympathise with what other people have been saying about Enchant meta, I think his alignment was ambiguous and I don't really blame people for wanting to flip there

this I just do not believe side-by-side with the agenda of the SoD questions

I find this compelling.

here i'll just make a list off the top of my head. maybe i should iso myself later to remember what my opinions are, ive honestly just been waiting for your slot to die

{menalque, mega (where are you tho?)}
{dunnstral, sheep (i think? i forget), implosion}
{egix, aureal}
{skitter, aisa}
{fire}


i am so checked out of this game that i started isoing the enchant slot to remember what my read on it is. wow

Included first quote because it's funny fmpov

Spoiler:

Someone please reassure me I’m not crazy and I’ve definitely got the game completely solved :3

Someone? Anyone. Cmon. How is this not an attractive proposition?

I think for a while I was at
{implosion, Cephrir, Aureal}
{Menalque, sheep, Egix, fireisredsir, Dunn}

but Egixslot is actually definitely a townslot at least until I change my mind again and it's a stronger read than Ceph. If I swap those I get
{implosion, Egix, Aureal}
{Cephrir, Menalque, sheep, fireisredsir, Dunn}

and I think this also gives me more scumteam options I find compelling to play with

I'll need to mull on Egix.

Why is Menalque in your PoE? I think that he can be scum here but I think it's pretty rare.

If you have convincing reasons on Aureal and Egix then I'm definitely interested in hearing them. Is Egix based primarily on CSF?

Unrelatedly, there's a part of sheep's posting right now that kind of just makes me want to lim him today. 1761/1762 just feel very... exactly-the-thing-scum-has-to-post-here to me. Like it's just the only place he can naturally go now that Aisa is off the table. It feels kinda trite.

Yeah I’m not really sure why Mena is in the PoE either. I think his posting when he was talking to fire was probably a bit town indicative, but I probably wasn’t completely sold when I made the list and I haven’t re-evaluated since.

For Aureal I still stand by the reasoning here:

Spoiler:

Dunn I have an easy time justifying a scumread on to myself. Maybe the Andante spiel is +town, but it's just one action and I feel like the rest of his ISO comes down to vibes, and I don't even have a history of being very successful reading him on vibes.

I've thought about Aureal and rn I want to townread her for feeling similar to the one previous time I played with her, where she was town. I don't think there are actually any glaring ways she feels different from that game. I think her posting style should be quite demanding to reproduce as scum; it's quite dense. Good on her if she can mimic it so well on her first time rolling non-multiball scum, but I've decided I'm ok with townreading her for now.

If you want an example of what I mean about Aureal's posting style, see this post. She gives a lot of arguments pro / con the various slots.

P-edit: I'm trying to keep myself from writing long posts lol
this is one reason why I think another day of fire vs skitter would not be great, even though I don't mind the long posts personally. I'm aware a lot of people have complained about this recently.

Egix we’ll see if I feel inspired later today (lol @

convincing

reasons) but yes it is mostly based on CSF

Not only are you using one game's worth of meta to townbin aureal, but you also don't even have a scum game to see if she can replicate the things you're looking at. That doesn't seem as strong as implosion is characterizing it below this, which I find strange in its own right

One game of meta seems a lot weaker than trying to read her based on this game and her actual actions here

Then you talk to me again here and I'm not sure if this is the way you would talk to a townread or a scumread

Spoiler:

Aisa
Mena
Implosion
Dunn
Egix/sheep/fire
Aureal

And the next time you mention me I am at the top of your readslist

[Menalque]

Wagonomics in a vacuum is trash but wagonomics contextualised is actually pretty good

[Ydrasse]

vt
around later, migraine

[Aisa]

Wagonomics in a vacuum is trash but wagonomics contextualised is actually pretty good

Yeah I basically think there is something to the observation "we were already a bit suspicious of this slot, and ?perhaps entirely coincidentally? in the last two days it has 1. driven a town miselimination and 2. been on a counterwagon to scum"
(I've had games like this as town though so not judging!)

[fireisredsir]

no you can definitely judge im pretty bad