In post 2394, Aisa wrote:
I too think Aureal looks a bit townier in light of the flip. Two reasons for this:
1. I don't think her behaviour towards sheep looked especially partnered,
2. Just knowing that sheep was mafia kinda snaps me out of the trance of "Aureal might be scum!!1" and, I think, takes power out of the case on Aureal.
It's heartening to see that Ceph's newest posts also have a sense of this
In post 2355, Cephrir wrote:
2. Because aureal's meltdown makes even more sense if her partner is getting run up too
I still wanna ask why you think / thought this
it feels kind of self explanatory... she'd have no positive way out of the situation, be actively losing the game and feeling helpless about it, and maybe even want to make some bad posts in order to die if she thought sheep had more longevity
this may be me holding onto hope that im not completely bad but this does make some sense to me
implosion was asking about why scum aureal would ever do that, and i think a world where the plan was for sheep to endgame and aureal to die, only for things to start to tilt towards sheep, is definitely a possibility
if there's one thing that y'all listen to after i flip (it sure shouldn't be my reads lol) its that please PLEASE do not clear anyone as unaligned off day 3 play because i think scum's main goal there would be to appear unaligned. even knowing there was only 2. maybe especially knowing there was only 2
i think it makes sense to read into earlier d3 when the lim appeared to be you, if you flip town
In post 2423, Dunnstral wrote:
I don't think the last mafia is fire. Their analysis yesterday and the argument they are making today has convinced me. I am also leaning towards it not being Ceph but need to think about that more. I think that means the last mafia bussed, and I think that means it is Aureal as I don't see the rest bussing. These are preliminary thoughts. We have new information today - I can't be mafia with Fire like some people were saying.
hard for me to envision why a mafia dunnstral decides to try to shoot down two of his mislim options i guess he could turn around on it later but why
Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.
I have also assigned you a question, dear. Your question is: see question above
In post 954, Aisa wrote:
I think one thing I’m curious about,
@implosion
, is why you decided to make your case 24 hours after Enchant subbed in. Did you ever think about waiting a bit longer to see if Enchant would do something before accusing him? How certain were you that he was going to flip scum?
this is aisa coming into today clearly prepping to push the notion that the enchant wagon was scum-driven but scared to actually say it out loud like other people, which I would have believed more
In post 957, Aisa wrote:
Though I sympathise with what other people have been saying about Enchant meta, I think his alignment was ambiguous and I don't really blame people for wanting to flip there
this I just do not believe side-by-side with the agenda of the SoD questions
I find this compelling.
In post 1184, Cephrir wrote:
here i'll just make a list off the top of my head. maybe i should iso myself later to remember what my opinions are, ive honestly just been waiting for your slot to die
{menalque, mega (where are you tho?)}
{dunnstral, sheep (i think? i forget), implosion}
{egix, aureal}
{skitter, aisa}
{fire}
i am so checked out of this game that i started isoing the enchant slot to remember what my read on it is. wow
In post 1745, Aisa wrote:
Someone please reassure me I’m not crazy and I’ve definitely got the game completely solved :3
Someone? Anyone. Cmon. How is this not an attractive proposition?
I think for a while I was at
{implosion, Cephrir, Aureal}
{Menalque, sheep, Egix, fireisredsir, Dunn}
but Egixslot is actually definitely a townslot at least until I change my mind again and it's a stronger read than Ceph. If I swap those I get
{implosion, Egix, Aureal}
{Cephrir, Menalque, sheep, fireisredsir, Dunn}
and I think this also gives me more scumteam options I find compelling to play with
I'll need to mull on Egix.
Why is Menalque in your PoE? I think that he can be scum here but I think it's pretty rare.
If you have convincing reasons on Aureal and Egix then I'm definitely interested in hearing them. Is Egix based primarily on CSF?
Unrelatedly, there's a part of sheep's posting right now that kind of just makes me want to lim him today. 1761/1762 just feel very... exactly-the-thing-scum-has-to-post-here to me. Like it's just the only place he can naturally go now that Aisa is off the table. It feels kinda trite.
Yeah I’m not really sure why Mena is in the PoE either. I think his posting when he was talking to fire was probably a bit town indicative, but I probably wasn’t completely sold when I made the list and I haven’t re-evaluated since.
For Aureal I still stand by the reasoning here:
Spoiler:
In post 1544, Aisa wrote:
Dunn I have an easy time justifying a scumread on to myself. Maybe the Andante spiel is +town, but it's just one action and I feel like the rest of his ISO comes down to vibes, and I don't even have a history of being very successful reading him on vibes.
I've thought about Aureal and rn I want to townread her for feeling similar to the one previous time I played with her, where she was town. I don't think there are actually any glaring ways she feels different from that game. I think her posting style should be quite demanding to reproduce as scum; it's quite dense. Good on her if she can mimic it so well on her first time rolling non-multiball scum, but I've decided I'm ok with townreading her for now.
If you want an example of what I mean about Aureal's posting style, see this post. She gives a lot of arguments pro / con the various slots.
P-edit: I'm trying to keep myself from writing long posts lol
this is one reason why I think another day of fire vs skitter would not be great, even though I don't mind the long posts personally. I'm aware a lot of people have complained about this recently.
Egix we’ll see if I feel inspired later today (lol @
convincing
reasons) but yes it is mostly based on CSF
Not only are you using one game's worth of meta to townbin aureal, but you also don't even have a scum game to see if she can replicate the things you're looking at. That doesn't seem as strong as implosion is characterizing it below this, which I find strange in its own right
One game of meta seems a lot weaker than trying to read her based on this game and her actual actions here
Then you talk to me again here and I'm not sure if this is the way you would talk to a townread or a scumread
Spoiler:
In post 1836, Cephrir wrote:
Aisa
Mena
Implosion
Dunn
Egix/sheep/fire
Aureal
And the next time you mention me I am at the top of your readslist
don't remember, will try to sort it out later i have a meeting rn
Ok thanks no stress!
wasn't me attacking you for towncasing aureal badly - it was me trying to get you to agree with my read
In post 2003, Aisa wrote:
VOTE: Aureal
I started writing half of this thought dump like 12 hours ago and it's... interesting to see what has happened in the interim
How my thoughts got to this point
(skip if walls make you sad)
Spoiler:
It seems like I somehow tricked you suckers into hard townlocking me, so I can skip the step where I apologise for being chaotic bwahahahaha
Anyway. fire doesn't seem all that scummy anymore. I thought his initial meta on me was extremely flimsy, and once I locked in {implosion Aureal Egix} as town there weren't many other places where it made sense to me to eliminate anyway. But his updated meta is better, and he didn't continue pushing me. That got me thinking about how it doesn't feel like he's been pushing any sort of agenda today. He hasn't really proposed an alternative solve, or done anything. If he's scum it seems like his only strategy has been to talk expend effort talking about how towny certain people are and how hard this game is to solve. This... just doesn't seem like scum behaviour.
I still have worries, of course. I'm worried about how bad for the gamestate (sorry) fire vs skitter was if it was a TvT. I'd need to reread that to get a better sense of whether it was something fire accidentally got sucked into (better).
I also have worries about my new push. For a while in my head Aureal was the mafia industrial complex's chosen mislim, and I still worry that I am playing into that. It feels like this is an elimination that might actually
happen
. Could it be that easy...? If Mena and implosion are town where is the opposition to the wagon...? But maybe it is that easy, I don't think it's possible to tell right now.
And Aureal... oh, Aureal. I think I've ignored some warning signs for too long. Let's talk about them.
Aureal scum warning signs
I tried to ignore these for a while, but I've come around to the idea that I... shouldn't, especially there are moments like these from
both players in this slot
.
Spoiler:
In post 686, GuerillaWoo wrote:
[...]
This game slowed down for a while then quickly blew up over the last day, I'll be in later to catch up.
In post 830, Menalque wrote:
To those asking why I voted dunn — I’m holding off a little more on this until I hear from woo
Yeah I dunno what to tell ya. it's gonna be a little late, had some irl stuff. I'm reading through the pages rn and nothing feels like it changed for me. Enchant and Andante still my biggest scumreads. Invis and Skitter still my TRs. Rest various shades of null.
This is not how I personally react to the game moving, by a large stretch. I'd need to reread to be sure but IIRC at the time it felt like lots of interesting things were happening. Woo was able to write this post on Drew, so I think this shows that at least in principle he is capable of paying attention to a specific slot's posting and being interested in individual posts. I feel like he should have been able to muster up the resolve to... have some more opinions on the rest of the game?
In post 1043, Aureal wrote:
[...]
I'm watching implosion be a clear driver of the wagon on Enchant and going "scum wouldn't be
that
brazen... Right?" So I'm not like totally sold on implosion, it is kinda weird that there's apparently no counterwagoning, but probably not a Mafia slot?
[...]
The reads on Mena and implosion are both kind of hedgy.
In post 1344, Aisa wrote:- Feel free to address any of my megapost!
[...]
The Mena/implosion hedging I'm not completely sure what you mean? I don't even talk about implosion in the post you cite. I think I worded my comment about Mena poorly though - I was saying that we could consider Mena as being on the Enchant wagon (as implosion had suggested in 949 and I was vaguely remembering since I was reading some new stuff as I did my catch-up). Not anything about Menalque's alignment- I was putting him down as town for that and the read has only gotten stronger since to where he's my strongest townread.
[...]
The bolded is false, hopefully this should be clear with the quote surgery I've done. I don't think I need to explain why someone forgetting what they've said is a little worrying.
Anyone who tries to save fire from being the lim today is also scum
Uh, you think two thirds of the remaining players are scum? This just isn't really a productive attitude. I'm more open to fire now but we could still, like, talk about it?
[...]
In post 1664, Cephrir wrote:
Really made sure the day ended there by parking on fire for most of the day and then mind controlling merlyn
VOTE: aureal
You were parked on fire for most of the day? This all started because fire said you were "the one to actually take action and start campaigning for alternate wagons" remember? That doesn't seem to match up well with your description of your day. Why are you not seeming to take issue with the inaccurate way fire describes your action but nitpicking mine, other than obvious reason that fire's inaccuracy makes you look better?
In post 1664, Cephrir wrote:
Really made sure the day ended there by parking on fire for most of the day and then mind controlling merlyn
VOTE: aureal
You were parked on fire for most of the day? This all started because fire said you were "the one to actually take action and start campaigning for alternate wagons" remember? That doesn't seem to match up well with your description of your day. Why are you not seeming to take issue with the inaccurate way fire describes your action but nitpicking mine, other than obvious reason that fire's inaccuracy makes you look better?
fire's original wording was
In post 1638, fireisredsir wrote:person a) [Cephrir] was a part of tvt wagons and then actively worked to try to move away from them and dismantle the locked position towards the rest of the game
which is compatible with what Ceph was doing (pushing skitter, then parked on fire, then asked about starting a 3rd wagon, then decided to sheep Merlyn which resulted in him voting skitter)
I don't really see how that's compatible, but if you do I'll let it go. Saying "hey Merlyn what do you think about starting new wagons on one of these people" without even so much as moving off a main wagon yourself seems pretty
in
active and
not
working to me.
As far as massclaim, I've rather come around to the 'just lim fire' position. I really dislike how fire just vanished once I started pushing back at him, and has only decided to talk about implosion (a consensus townread) since then. It feels like scum realizing they could end up making me look too unpartnered if they keep engaging with me.
VOTE: fireisredsir
These are (IMO) some key moments in her trajectory today. 1. "let's talk not auto-elim fire", 2. pushes Ceph, 3. when I tell her that Ceph seems town she seems very happy to change back onto fire again. I'm specifically worried by the "I don't see how it's compatible but if you do I'll let it go"; this isn't how I would react I think. Usually when a player I respect disagrees with me I consider the merits of what they said to determine what to do. Sometimes there's some angst because I might find it hard to go against them. Here we have the opposite: she seems quite confident in disagreeing with me, but still lets it go and is quite happy to switch onto fire.
This... strikes me as how I'd instinctively play today if I were scum and fire was town. And also very much not how I'd want to play if I were scum with fire.
(Which brings up an interesting point: maybe if we eliminate Aureal today and she is scum, then her interactions with fire can help take the sting out of our collective paranoia of fire.)
- I'm also maybe willing to think about voting Dunn or sheep? Haven't absorbed fire's Dunn towncase yet. sheep kinda vibes town but man it's day 3 and I feel like he's spent half the game making his mind up on me (<3)
- The explanation for why we shouldn't massclaim makes sense to me, #nomassclaim
- I think that if fire is town, then Mena looks a bit worse. (Which, ironically, makes me a bit way of Mena regardless of fire, because I dislike completely clearing slots off associatives.) When I think back on why I've felt some pressure to lim fire, it feels like a lot of it has come from Mena. That doesn't mean Mena is scum. But that got me thinking that he seems more confident on scum!fire than the situation warrants to me.
- The way implosion has handled the massclaim discussion looks towny. Not the part where he explains the setup, he obviously does that as both alignments, lol. Specifically the mindset in '73 and '80, and the fact he thought of '76 at all. (Just in case the quintillion reasons to townread him so far were not sufficient. )
In post 2003, Aisa wrote:
(Which brings up an interesting point: maybe if we eliminate Aureal today and she is scum, then her interactions with fire can help take the sting out of our collective paranoia of fire.)
man this is what I thought about skitter lol
Yeah there is a certain irony if I'm helping fire wiggle out of it again
In post 2003, Aisa wrote:
If he's scum it seems like his only strategy has been to talk expend effort talking about how towny certain people are and how hard this game is to solve. This... just doesn't seem like scum behaviour.
I think this is pretty reasonable. It's entirely possible that I'm being too obstinate. But I do still hold reservations; I think if fire got to today as scum, this is how fire would play today as scum. My impression of fire is biased in many ways, part of which is because I perceive fire as approaching the game of mafia in some ways similar to how I do, in that fire if scum is sort of trying to make the locally next best move without needing to think about the bigger picture necessarily because the bigger picture for fire is that fire needs to get townread and the way to do that is to act, in each moment, how fire would act as town. And I think fire, if scum, thinks that fire, as town, would just be going along like they've been doing in this day.
I do sort of wonder what they'd say about their own meta in this regard/if they think this is how they'd be playing today as scum.
Aisa wrote:The bolded is false, hopefully this should be clear with the quote surgery I've done. I don't think I need to explain why someone forgetting what they've said is a little worrying.
It's a little worrying but I think there is also possibly some +town justification in it; in particular I think carelessness is townish as scum probably on average tend to be more careful to not say something factually wrong because it's their entire job. I guess this case is sort of a strange thing to forget that she had written. Idk, I don't put a ton of stock into this bit.
Aisa wrote:These are (IMO) some key moments in her trajectory today. 1. "let's talk not auto-elim fire", 2. pushes Ceph, 3. when I tell her that Ceph seems town she seems very happy to change back onto fire again. I'm specifically worried by the "I don't see how it's compatible but if you do I'll let it go"; this isn't how I would react I think. Usually when a player I respect disagrees with me I consider the merits of what they said to determine what to do. Sometimes there's some angst because I might find it hard to go against them. Here we have the opposite: she seems quite confident in disagreeing with me, but still lets it go and is quite happy to switch onto fire.
This... strikes me as how I'd instinctively play today if I were scum and fire was town. And also very much not how I'd want to play if I were scum with fire.
(Which brings up an interesting point: maybe if we eliminate Aureal today and she is scum, then her interactions with fire can help take the sting out of our collective paranoia of fire.)
Feedback please
I think this point has merit. I do think it's possible for Aureal to be doing this with both her and fire as scum; I think if fire is scum then scum will feel like they need at least one person bussing, because there'd probably be a bit of doom in the air around fire's slot and someone would need to capitalize on that. Like Menalque, one of the townbloc, was talking about how if we don't lim fire today we ought to be autolimming fire tomorrow or whatever (don't quote me on this, idr the exact phrasing)
Well, I appreciate you cooling my enthusiasm a little. I think these all valid points.
One new angle I've decided might be interesting is... the choice to prioritise investigating if he feels good "confidently clearing" you/implosion and me. That feels like it must have been a very... calculated choice? idk how to explain this, my intuition is just telling me there may be something interesting there. I kind of wonder if there's more town or scum motivation behind a choice like that.
if i was still worried about you at all, these posts would have cured me
i think i had you low because i found some points that someone (sheep?) made kinda convincing and you just continued to townpost after that so i stopped caring
ya idk there are so many posts from you in this span that have really transparent & believable thought processes i can't imagine how i could cite only one or several
i think there's probably some merit to looking in the aureal voters for scum here now that we know there are only 2 so they can only bus from a good position
I was gonna say something about it being interesting that the last scum did not claim a role which would have denied us the information of there only being 2 mafia. BUT looking at the setup again, the only roles they could have claimed to do that were Cop or Vig, neither of which is obviously a viable fakeclaim at this point lol
Does the information really help town's chances, though? Or does it just make us feel better? Letting us have the "oh there's only one scum left, we can afford to yeet some townies" feeling seems actually more beneficial to scum. It's nice to know, less stress, but could lead to more cavalier play.
Also, I'm glad there's only 2 but what I was suspecting about Ydrasse's slot was wrong, alas. I'd been giving Egix the side-eye ever since he called me obvtown, wondering if that was a scum pocket attempt. Then Egix came out against mass-claiming and I started thinking maybe he was a cop who'd investigated me and wanted to stay on the down-low still to get another try in without getting killed, so I decided I didn't really want it either. Ydrasse even reinforced that idea coming in also townreading me.
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
It doesn't hurt out chances; mafia already knew they had two members, and they can suspect that there is no serial killer given a lack of additional kills during the night.
In post 2402, fireisredsir wrote:
i do think it is possibly the worst plan in the world (currently assuming we're in a 2 scum world based on how the claims are going) for me as scum to enter yesterday being like okay, im gonna reaffirm townreads and try to narrow things down to a poe
and then spend a lot of effort doing that, including my scum partner in the poe, and generally throughout the day being fine with limming him and even at some points leaning towards limming him
only to in the last few hours of the day suddenly decide to flip and try to hard push out the counter alongside him which gets us basically nowhere closer to winning the game even if we succeed
i think i either include him in the poe and try to push for him to be limmed bc we want me to endgame and keep myself as clean as possible (decent path if i think i can convince people im town) or we let me be the lim and set things up to allow him to endgame and look clean (a little harder i think? either could work depending on how we played it), or we go for the bold strategy of trying to both win by one of us convincing people that the other belongs in the towncore (risky and difficult)
instead we just decided to try to both burn all of our cred at once in order to... force out aureal?? which even if we succeed would leave us still one day away from elo with a 0% chance that we live after doing that?
like i know that nobody is gonna be convinced by this post and nobody should be, bc if this argument was convincing then there's an avenue where the plan could actually end up somehow working lol
but still
I am confused by this too but yeah I do not think this argument carries enough weight by itself, things could have just gone wrong somehow
What do people feel like the day's trajectory felt like? I asked Ceph earlier to make a point that fire/sheep/Aureal was a rather silly team idea since those were literally all the D3 wagons so I don't know wtf we were supposedly doing there, but I think it's helpful in general to evaluate that.
It felt to me like the day started with fire being the likely elimination for the first third of the day. Then resistance started building in the second third. Then it rapidly went to me, shifted back a bit to fire, to sheep, and wavered a bit with fire or me still being possible before becoming a clear choice between me or sheep.
In post 2423, Dunnstral wrote:
I don't think the last mafia is fire. Their analysis yesterday and the argument they are making today has convinced me. I am also leaning towards it not being Ceph but need to think about that more. I think that means the last mafia bussed, and I think that means it is Aureal as I don't see the rest bussing. These are preliminary thoughts. We have new information today - I can't be mafia with Fire like some people were saying.
hard for me to envision why a mafia dunnstral decides to try to shoot down two of his mislim options i guess he could turn around on it later but why
I don't think Dunn really needs to add to the pressure on fire here. He is, once again, the likely yeet.
And why would you think he wouldn't turn around later if need be, he already has. It's not like he's giving highly thought-out reasoning for these views- heck, he literally says it's preliminary views, that's basically telling you to not be surprised by changes later.
"Yeah after a point it felt like Aureal was the only one talking sense despite being a goose so I just followed."
-furtiveglance
In post 2402, fireisredsir wrote:
i do think it is possibly the worst plan in the world (currently assuming we're in a 2 scum world based on how the claims are going) for me as scum to enter yesterday being like okay, im gonna reaffirm townreads and try to narrow things down to a poe
and then spend a lot of effort doing that, including my scum partner in the poe, and generally throughout the day being fine with limming him and even at some points leaning towards limming him
only to in the last few hours of the day suddenly decide to flip and try to hard push out the counter alongside him which gets us basically nowhere closer to winning the game even if we succeed
i think i either include him in the poe and try to push for him to be limmed bc we want me to endgame and keep myself as clean as possible (decent path if i think i can convince people im town) or we let me be the lim and set things up to allow him to endgame and look clean (a little harder i think? either could work depending on how we played it), or we go for the bold strategy of trying to both win by one of us convincing people that the other belongs in the towncore (risky and difficult)
instead we just decided to try to both burn all of our cred at once in order to... force out aureal?? which even if we succeed would leave us still one day away from elo with a 0% chance that we live after doing that?
like i know that nobody is gonna be convinced by this post and nobody should be, bc if this argument was convincing then there's an avenue where the plan could actually end up somehow working lol
but still
I am confused by this too but yeah I do not think this argument carries enough weight by itself, things could have just gone wrong somehow
What do people feel like the day's trajectory felt like? I asked Ceph earlier to make a point that fire/sheep/Aureal was a rather silly team idea since those were literally all the D3 wagons so I don't know wtf we were supposedly doing there, but I think it's helpful in general to evaluate that.
It felt to me like the day started with fire being the likely elimination for the first third of the day. Then resistance started building in the second third. Then it rapidly went to me, shifted back a bit to fire, to sheep, and wavered a bit with fire or me still being possible before becoming a clear choice between me or sheep.
In post 2423, Dunnstral wrote:
I don't think the last mafia is fire. Their analysis yesterday and the argument they are making today has convinced me. I am also leaning towards it not being Ceph but need to think about that more. I think that means the last mafia bussed, and I think that means it is Aureal as I don't see the rest bussing. These are preliminary thoughts. We have new information today - I can't be mafia with Fire like some people were saying.
hard for me to envision why a mafia dunnstral decides to try to shoot down two of his mislim options i guess he could turn around on it later but why
I don't think Dunn really needs to add to the pressure on fire here. He is, once again, the likely yeet.
And why would you think he wouldn't turn around later if need be, he already has. It's not like he's giving highly thought-out reasoning for these views- heck, he literally says it's preliminary views, that's basically telling you to not be surprised by changes later.
Already has? His one post since then doesn't seem relevant
In post 2430, Cephrir wrote:
i think i had you low because i found some points that someone (sheep?) made kinda convincing and you just continued to townpost after that so i stopped caring
In post 2431, Cephrir wrote:
ya idk there are so many posts from you in this span that have really transparent & believable thought processes i can't imagine how i could cite only one or several
The good thing about this game is that everyone is townreading me so I can’t be pocketed with a townread
In post 241, sheepsaysmeep wrote:
Cat Scratch Fever do u happen to have any reads on the active posters now? like andante/alianna/me etc.
it's kinda bugging me how ur avoiding commenting on relevant stuff
otherwise I would be townreading u lol. 151 and 213 are rly good imo
also what do I call u is it like Cat or CSF or something
I'm kind of gutreading Alianna and Andante as both town
I uh don't really have much of an impression on you except that your vote on Drew was potentially interesting, sorry!
I think the Drew wagon seems like it was whipped up out of nothing and kinda ??? to me
this is probably the most significant interaction of the early pages
it's a pretty weird post (from sheep)
could be trying to look like he's pocketing but actually is trying to give his partner a path into the game
i don't really think CSF's early posting is as good as i thought it was originally
In post 313, sheepsaysmeep wrote:
I think woo posting is rife with more disconnects to accompany the one drew pointed out
In post 247, GuerillaWoo wrote:
I am not sure I understand why I am being wagoned, but hello o/ Lookin like wagons are forming and dissipating in the span of a handful of post
In post 248, implosion wrote:
Well, you have two votes on you which is nominally a wagon. Do either of the votes on you make you think anything about the people voting you?
In post 249, GuerillaWoo wrote:
Nah, not really. They thought I was inactive and wanted to pressure. It's pretty NAI, scum could do it for the town vibes.
this just seems like a direct contradiction to me
I was also going to townread woo like, doubling down that he had no reads + nothing meaningful happened so far (last line of 247, 251). but then he talks about andante like a normal scum read. idk something feels fake
i don't really know what this positioning accomplishes if woo is a partner
doesn't vibe as a distance post it feels more like pushing things into the spotlight
especially when calling for drew-woo wagons but voting drew
i think ive found a recognizable pattern of play that sheep likes to apply to people in order to build connections and generate content. see interaction with aisa starting in 482
i would be pretty willing to bet that he doesn't do this in this way to a partner so im gonna look for more of these
and i think i only really do it with partners when i know them and have comfortable rapport w them, which i don't think sheep would with any of his possible partners here
i think CSF's positioning around enchant is fairly scummy actually in hindsight around post 850 and i think sheep may have kinda noticed and tmi'd it a bit in 875 (and then never really revisited this take)
still can't believe mena really thought the scumteam was gonna sell out to save enchant of all people and fall for the most telegraphed reaction test of all time
- I can't remember why I had implo that high, he should be more like at the low end of the town pile (just vibes)
- I should have included Andante here, but simply presumed she would be self-resolving due to the PR claim
- Adding Ceph to this because I think he looked townier than skitter in the interactions they had earlier this Day
- fire is townier than Alianna was. I don't wanna go as far as saying "ooh I townread this slot now!" but I did not want there to be a hammer yet.
- I kinda think that Aureal's slot is just obv town at this point, her posting is even better than GWoo's was.
So, seems like that leaves me with Dunn, Mena, or skitter as my vote.
I don't have a case ready yet but I'll
VOTE: skitter
as she's the one I have the worst vibes from atm. (I skimmed her iso earlier so I should be able to elaborate when I have more time)
In post 2402, fireisredsir wrote:
i do think it is possibly the worst plan in the world (currently assuming we're in a 2 scum world based on how the claims are going) for me as scum to enter yesterday being like okay, im gonna reaffirm townreads and try to narrow things down to a poe
and then spend a lot of effort doing that, including my scum partner in the poe, and generally throughout the day being fine with limming him and even at some points leaning towards limming him
only to in the last few hours of the day suddenly decide to flip and try to hard push out the counter alongside him which gets us basically nowhere closer to winning the game even if we succeed
i think i either include him in the poe and try to push for him to be limmed bc we want me to endgame and keep myself as clean as possible (decent path if i think i can convince people im town) or we let me be the lim and set things up to allow him to endgame and look clean (a little harder i think? either could work depending on how we played it), or we go for the bold strategy of trying to both win by one of us convincing people that the other belongs in the towncore (risky and difficult)
instead we just decided to try to both burn all of our cred at once in order to... force out aureal?? which even if we succeed would leave us still one day away from elo with a 0% chance that we live after doing that?
like i know that nobody is gonna be convinced by this post and nobody should be, bc if this argument was convincing then there's an avenue where the plan could actually end up somehow working lol
but still
I am confused by this too but yeah I do not think this argument carries enough weight by itself, things could have just gone wrong somehow
What do people feel like the day's trajectory felt like? I asked Ceph earlier to make a point that fire/sheep/Aureal was a rather silly team idea since those were literally all the D3 wagons so I don't know wtf we were supposedly doing there, but I think it's helpful in general to evaluate that.
It felt to me like the day started with fire being the likely elimination for the first third of the day. Then resistance started building in the second third. Then it rapidly went to me, shifted back a bit to fire, to sheep, and wavered a bit with fire or me still being possible before becoming a clear choice between me or sheep.
And now that I know there are only 2 scum it's an even less compelling argument than it was before. That's not even enough for "resistance" to exist
The only other mafia would be sheep so at this point Aureal needs to stop vaguely motioning towards "resistance" and start pulling quotes from Sheep's iso to show us where they are resisting the wagon.
)
It's not like he's giving highly thought-out reasoning for these views- heck, he literally says it's preliminary views, that's basically telling you to not be surprised by changes later.
