Open 879: Fire and More Fire [game over]

[Radical Rat]

Scum already shot themselves, it's only fair if we do too

[sheepsaysmeep]

EV

73% town win, discounting IC influence, which makes it not just dividing 3 by 11.

wow when we bottle this it will go down in history

[Bingle]

I mean, don and I literally just lost a game with a 100% town ev.

[Ausuka]

Ausuka
Donempire

Bingle
sheepsaysmeep
Radical Rat
Doctor Drew
Firebringer

osuka
Merlyn
Invisibility
Umlaut

This technically counts as sticking to the three tier format

[Ausuka]

I like the 'who is willing to eliminate who' idea fwiw? It probably won't auto solve the game or whatever but it might be helpful to look at, and it makes mafia commit to a townread on their partner or risk a suspicious-looking pivot later on.

I think my list above is sorted into people I wouldn't really be interested in voting today and people I could be

[Bingle]

Oh, yeah, looking at progressions is definitely a valuable tool here, but there's no mechanical way to leverage that into autowin, which is what FB wanted me to do.

[Ausuka]

If nothing else maybe it'll help us figure out who the viable lim targets are before deadline is a day away

[Ausuka]

Something I wanted to bring up before I forget

Skygazer can you scumhunt please I wanna townread you on vibes but I'm too smart to do that again

At least one scum on Ausuka, scum loveeeeee jumping on the classic day 1 Ausuka wagon (which I would know because I have)

scum also love white knighting ausuka (which i would know because i have)

I think while it's not *guaranteed* they did this, if/when we start looking for potential partners, we should look for distancing like this. I think most scum players bus a lot, and in a situation where the

instinctive

idea is that scum will hard defend each other, I think most people are still going to try and be 'unconventional' by doing something like this. It's not hard bussing - Meuh later calls the sky wagon terrible and tries to deflect away from it - but I think it's likely that early on, scum are likely to have mentioned each other by name, and the interaction probably involves them notably not townreading each other.

I also think that on an individual basis, people who are more confident / unconventional players, like firebringer I guess, are more likely to not do this and maybe even go in the opposite direction as a WIFOM play. More conventional players - like I guess merlyn? - are probably more likely to follow this pattern?

If I'm right about this then uh, the most likely scum partner for Merlyn would be Umlaut or maybe Drew? For Umlaut, Merlyn or FB make the most sense. For invis, I think drew or FB or maybe sheep?

This is pretty speculative and not really the strongest thing in the world, but we kind of have to preflip because we don't really

get

post-flip associatives in this game, and I think this could at least be a helpful contributor to later see more likely teams and who does or doesn't have a number of viable scumteams, shrug

[Doctor Drew]

If nothing else maybe it'll help us figure out who the viable lim targets are before deadline is a day away

I do actually like this idea, I hope it can help us avoid what happened at the end of D1.

[Bingle]

• Invisibility - I think Vizzy here is still very town. She's chaotic and sheepy, but ime Vizzy just be like that. There's not really a concern coming from her that she's going to be in danger, and I haven't noticed anyone trying to make Vizzy's position stronger, which I would expect of someone loverpaired to her. I don't see an agenda, and I don't see any worry about being scumread for her actions. I geuss most of it boils down to gut and tone, but I just don't believe Vizzy is scum here.
  
• Firebringer - Firebringer is pretty clearly town here, imo. He started with a NAI gimmick, but he dropped it as soon as he saw something he thought was worth pushing. His case on me was a bad one, but I maintain that it's not something that scumbringer brings to bear on specifically me. Like, he brought up Elections as part of it, where he watched scum me shut down literally every scumread on my partner LLD from D1 to great effect. I'm not a player who it's easy to get a strong town read on D1, and if FB scum here was pushing me I think he'd get cold feet on getting rid of someone who he knows would be an asset throughout the game if I was scum. I would have expected Firebringer to want to investigate me N1 and then push me D2 when he got confirmation I was town, or (if he realized that the best use of the cop was to vet nightkills) to quietly shoot me N2.
  
• Radical Rat - Rat was very willing to put a E-1 down on basically nothing, and I maintain that's very +town for them specifically. They absolutely would have gotten the nuance of being afraid of sacrificing resources and they were not at all worried about that. Add to that the bits and pieces of strong analysis they bring in from time to time like the osuka ego thing, even when I don't agree with them, and I'm pretty sure that Rat is actually trying to solve this game.
  
• Ausuka- A lot of my concern about Ausuka died with Meuh. It's possible that Ausuka was humoring the Meuh townread, but posts like 869 actually make me think she's genuine in her thought processes. If I'm wrong on a strong townread, it's this one, but I don't think I am.
  
  
• Donempire - meh.
  
• Merlyn - Merlyn feels reasonable overall, and when I interact with her I get all the town feels, but when I actually try to pin down the read I just... What has she really done? For as here as she seems to be, there's a general lack of specific things I can remember liking about her.
  
  
• sheepsaysmeep
  
• Doctor Drew - The only thing I can really say here is that Drew does feel weird with his treatment of me. It's very much a buddying feel, and while it's not impossible it comes from town I think this is a pretty good bet on scum.
  
  
• Umlaut - Umlaut was definitely where I expected scum to be regarding my wagon yesterday, and the transition from "Maybe Bingle is an okay info lim but I don't really want it" to "We absolutely need to lim Bingle for information" doesn't seem natural at all. Honestly, my biggest hesitance in calling Umlaut scum is that he doesn't feel anywhere near as town as he did in Coalition, but that might be due to coalition being full of lurksacks and shittunnels.
  
• osuka

This is still roughly where I'm at, don aside.

I'm trying to figure out why don and I disagree on FB, but I have 5 names that I think contain 1-2 scum for sure.

[Doctor Drew]

Kinda worn out from the last couple days, but when I get home I may let the whiskey guide me and make a reads list.

[Merlyn]

@Mod- Limited Access until the 5th bc I'm at the lake. I might still have time to post but no promises

[Doctor Drew]

Avoided the Whskey Pocket, but the cheap beer pocket is kicking in, but will give my reads regardless.

Obv town tier:
Drew
Don

Prob town tier:
Sheep
Bingle
Rat

Ausuka tier:
Ausuka(congrats you get your own tier, feel much better about you know, but still can't shake earlier feelings......you are like maybe town)

Like me when having too much whiskey, could go either way tier:
Invis
FireBringer

Scum tier:
Merlyn
Umlaut
Osuka

[Firebringer]

VOTE: Ausuka

[Radical Rat]

Realized I never really talked about WHY Umlaut's been making me nervous this game, but basically it is a known weakness of mine that I am reluctant to scumread people townreading me, and make a pretty good pocket if you can get to me early, and there are several posts where it feels like Umlaut's laying it on a bit thick.

But then there's another post that lightly shades me for a peculiar reason that's just been festering paranoia since I read it, but had my focus on other targets...

[Radical Rat]

It's weird that RR and I are at odds like this, most of our games I'm nodding my head along with everything they post but I really don't see the Bingle case and think Ausuka is a fine yeet.

I could compromise on Cook, she has made essentially no impression at all on me this game which is a good enough reason for a day 1 choice.

My problems here are twofold. I have no idea what we were "at odds" about for one, but also I'm pretty sure the most recent game we were in together was Chrono Trigger where I literally got Umlaut mislimmed as Town because I pulled a poorly thought out fake Cop gambit out of my ass, so to hear that it's weird he isn't nodding along with me is... well, a bit weird.

[Bingle]

VOTE: Ausuka

If Ausuka ends up being scum imma need you to wear a jingle bell rocks shirt. Jussayin.

[Datisi]

vote count 2.04

with 11 votes in play, it takes 6 to make a decision. day 2 ends in (expired on 2023-07-08 15:30:00).

yeet

Umlaut [4]:

Invisibility, sheepsaysmeep, Ausuka, Radical Rat

osuka [2]:

Bingle, Doctor Drew

Firebringer [2]:

Donempire

, Umlaut

Bingle [1]:

osuka

Ausuka [1]:

Firebringer

not voting [1]:

Merlyn

mod notes

this is a mod note.

flavour

[Umlaut]

It's weird that RR and I are at odds like this, most of our games I'm nodding my head along with everything they post but I really don't see the Bingle case and think Ausuka is a fine yeet.

I could compromise on Cook, she has made essentially no impression at all on me this game which is a good enough reason for a day 1 choice.

My problems here are twofold. I have no idea what we were "at odds" about for one, but also I'm pretty sure the most recent game we were in together was Chrono Trigger where I literally got Umlaut mislimmed as Town because I pulled a poorly thought out fake Cop gambit out of my ass, so to hear that it's weird he isn't nodding along with me is... well, a bit weird.

We were "at odds" because I misread or misremembered your earlier post as having a strong scumread on Bingle that didn't make sense to me. I'll need to go back to that game because I do remember it, but I remember even then going, "Damn, I guess he's scum even though I don't see it at all in his play..." and being more annoyed than surprised to find it was a gambit.

[Umlaut]

I have been getting misyeeted early a

lot

lately, going to need to do some serious work on my town play particularly if it happens again

[Umlaut]

Also,

@mod V/LA from tomorrow thru July 6

[Radical Rat]

Damn it, I think I believe you.
I'll probably have to put in actual work and do ISOs later huh?

[Donempire]

Don, what do you make of fire pushing me specifically? Like, fire knows I can win scum games on my own if I’m on my game and he tunneled me over weak reasons when I was both likely to die from it and he had no real assurance I wasn’t scum. If he’s scum why would he take that risk?

You realize how leading this question is right?

Not at all leading? It’s asking for your take on why I tr fire given that you disagree.

The question is leading because you're making his reasoning out to be weak, which is true about his push since he only made one post laying out his reasoning, but where i beg to differ is that i don't think his reasoning in that one post is weak. It's a meta read but i wouldn't call it stupid. Rather i'd say he's inpersistent in his push, which leads me to believe scum!fire could have assumed you were scum, and wanted to shade you instead of pushing you fully so you could survive and be relatively townread after deflecting a weak push.

Two things with your posts. You claim you are both a skilled scum player that can survive a weak push like fire's, but in the same breath say that scum!fire's taking a risk by shading you in case you're scum. If you ask me, i don't think fire's taking a risk here, nor has he taken a risk the entire game.

[Donempire]

yeet

Black [8]:

Firebringer,

Meuh

, Radical Rat, Doctor Drew, Bingle, Merlyn, Ausuka, Donempire

[HAMMER]

Bingle [2]:

The Bulge

, osuka

Doctor Drew [1]:

sheepsaysmeep

Firebringer [1]:

Black

Merlyn [1]:

Invisibility

sheepsaysmeep [1]:

Umlaut

not voting [1]:

Skygazer

I would be quite surprised to learn there was only one scum on Black.

Does anyone disagree with this and think it's likely there was only one scum on Black? Because that's... kind of important for where we choose to vote today.

Is it? Scum didn't even know Black's alignment and it was a rushed end-of-day wagon. I would have believed it possible that there were zero scum on the wagon if Meuh hadn't flipped red. There could also be three scum on the wagon or two or one, I don't know and I don't really see why you're treating it as a point of focus.

I disagree. It was rushed but that exact reason might be why scum voted there in the first place. In hindsight knowing black's flip that should be obvious, but scum had 11/13 chance of hitting town, and the less discussion on one the better, so i agree with umlaut that there should be at least one more scum on the wagon. Scum would gain to rush a wagon that they knew at least didn't have their team, lest the discussion turn around and hit one of them. You have to realize self preservation comes before the preservation of the entire scum team.

[Donempire]

If we decide to go on that, then we have about 6 elims to work with out of a possible 4.. regardless i feel it'd be best if we started our analysis from people inside the wagon rather than outside.