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[the worst]

cool as of pg 25 i'm surprised people seem to have ckd locktown too

[humaneatingmonkey]

im gonna say it. i think bob's gameplay is town. i think my final two is karmadog and bob and im more willing to elim gerain if std doesnt flip scum

[humaneatingmonkey]

oh i meant to say my final two town. i dont think karmadog can be scum in this game

[the worst]

oh hmm ok i think i get the gist of your bob case, why ckd?

[humaneatingmonkey]

im in mobile right now but you'll probably graze through my karmadog read in your deep reading. just to encourage you to keep going!

[the worst]

Now I'm leaning town on you.

And now I'm leaning scum on you!

It's fine, we will figure something out later.

this is such a cute softclaim. clidd, you're great.

[the worst]

my brain needs a cleanse i'm going to talk to bob for a minute

Also ask your self does interaction between me and bing realy look s/s.

point - i'll consider more deeply when i catch up to there properly.

Only time bing interacts with dragon is via mt. Where bing lightly defends dragon. He interacts with me/HEm and the maosns but not dragon

That really inst that strong of an association as it isnt like furt is only at e-3 aswell as everyones else votes are dispersed. And it wouldnt be first time that scum had a wagon pretty much to themselves.

granted on both counts. i'll consider this.

Also it should be highly likely that scum are simply triple goons.

There were two reasons i did the vague claim plus nk speculation. Is that i wanted to first just get players talking and second to see how players react to a possible town rolecop claim as that would be first assumption of be saying there was a 3rd mason. If scum had a pr i would appear to them as a defacto cop should we get the 2nd goon last day. So i was looking to see how bing the player i was sure was scum would react. It was pretty clear that he wasnt worried about the possibility, Thus, its clear even if rolecop fit (which it wouldnt) it would have no chance of finding a guilty.

So teh set up is prob 3 mason, mason finder and 3 goons

the mason finder acts as an informed towny that also reveals their info on flip. As well as slight boost as they would noraly be able to easily find a town block and thus solve.

3 masons, motion detector and 3 goons in 15p so a slightly boosted pr would make sense. Since one misexecution has been dropped

pretty strongly disagree. this is also a mech argument which isn't, like, super useful, but hear me out.

3 masons + 1 named townie is pretty damn strong. 3 masons + 7 vt vs. 3 goons is a very famous open setup, which is generally considered to be balanced:
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... nd_Enemies

that being said, we're in an era where:
town have won 4 times in a row (100% town w/r)
6 of the last 7 wins have been town (85.71% town w/r)
scum have only won 11 of 20 games with decisive winners over the last 16 years (45% town w/r)

of the 4 recent wins, a final mason has reached night 5 once (1), and endgame 1, 2, 3 times.

i think there's an argument to be made that town is outperforming scum in this setup in this era of mafiascum. i think there's an argument to be made for helping scum to find masons given they're tending to reach endgame which dramatically swings the game in town's favour. i don't think there's an argument to be made for helping town to find masons, given that masons are already confirmable as soon as one of them or one member of the mafia flips. also -- all that you've done here is identify a mason for scum. it's a negative utility town role if it's a town role, and i think it makes *slightly* more sense as a scum role to remove swing which is clearly swinging in town's direction.

this is without any other power roles existing ofc. i just categorically reject the argument that your role is in any way clearing. if anything, it's weakly incriminating. if you're scum, the way you claimed was incredibly clever. if you're town, the way you claimed removed town's chance of a mason reaching final 3 (and mt, to boot, who is lowkey a queen).

[humaneatingmonkey]

mt is highkey a queen

[the worst]

VOTE: hem p sure this is a hit i'll expand later

[humaneatingmonkey]

ugh

[the worst]

time for my subjective feelings:

furtive is missing a soul in this game.

furtive no longer is soulless. i think he just ran out of fucks to give since i last saw him

It does not take much for HEM to come around to a town!Furtive read, or at least an implied town read since he doesn't want to actually commit to calling Furtive town. Look at their interactions between those two posts I quoted. HEM basically brings out the kiddie gloves, giving off zero aggression and only throwing him softball questions so he can explain his reads as concisely and with as much nuance as possible. It is a VASTLY different interaction than the one he had with me, even though he outright called Furtive soulless and implied that it was a scum tell. It comes across like he doesn't want Furtive to be shown in a negative light, and honestly Furtive does

look

a lot townier after they finish talking.

However, there's a small problem here.

The one that just happened and is multiple pages long

I did think you meant that one, just making sure

I think Roden's towny

Whilst I've got you here, what makes Roden towny to you after the exchange with HEM?

His was a reasonable response to a pretty baseless attack, at least that's how I saw it

I townread Roden before that as well, I gather his scumgame is pretty threadbare

Pooky said in a previous game that if Roden posts he's town - idk how fair that is but it was accurate to that game.

Furtive metas reads me as town, and he thinks HEM's case is baseless. Yet there's been zero objections to my wagon, unless you count this?

the greeting one is because i haven't townread greeting, and can be convinced to vote him if that's the only option open to me.

luckily, everyone seems down to see roden claim.

I don't want Roden to claim. I want clidd to claim!

Which doesn't accomplish much of anything. So why isn't Furtive doing anything to stop a wagon he believes will be a mis-elim? Why did he and HEM talk about reads on several other players but leave their completely opposite reads on me out of the conversation? They're ignoring the elephant in the room and it stands out to me.

this post is a really good indicator of a part of what i'm seeing. worth noting as well that hem + furtive have a conversation about how scummy greeting is while both vote parking (furtive in particular is voting clidd "for pressure"), and neither player thinks that's remotely odd.

furtive is now flipped scum so this is a really bad look for hem

there's some other stuff too lemme finish up in case i dramatically change my mind or smth

[humaneatingmonkey]

you truly are the worst

[the worst]

by name, by nature.

[humaneatingmonkey]

i can't believe you're making me die even though i'm obviously town.

[the worst]

onto 1200 d1 home stretch heeeeck yeah

[the worst]

i'm so sorry i need to run soon but i've finished d1 and like, i'm pretty sure i'm right about hem, if not it's just dragons, failing that it's bob, but i'm pretty sure i'm right.

ckd is absolutely town.
gera is, to my extreme surprise, probably town!
is emperor/bob town? i don't really know they haven't done much yet (but i liked ~2 things)
is dragons town? like, maybe that world exists. if we're in that world, scum are absolutely fucking wild this game and i can explain why later.

hem has been the strongest voice in the game & has consistently pushed throughout the d1 i've read, but he has consistently missed the mark.

1) on day one, there was a false dichotomy in the [roden, ckd] lim. when roden towned it up, hem went for ckd. when ckd towned it up, he went back to roden. the other viable options were clidd (which never got traction, probably in part because he was a mason with two swing voters) or greeting. this false dichotomy benefits greeting alone.

2) hem was aware of greeting's scumminess, and there are *multiple* points at which hem should have been biting on that and interrogating greeting. he failed to do so at every opportunity.

3) hem absolutely roasted ~half the playerlist, nearly all town and one scum - furtive. his interrogation of town players was consistently lengthy and thorough and forced them to evaluate. he randomly decided he agreed with furtive after like a third of a conversation, and never reevaluated. part of this lack of evaluation was not evaluating furtive's greeting scumread, which he claimed to agree with.

4) the gamestate of d1 was in a stranglehold. there were other voices in the thread capable of taking the reins, but they were not able to. being a mason, mt's attentions were divided. ckd was absent. i get the impression oopsie could have lit shit on fire on another day but i think her energies were spent solving other stuff. hem had the absolute run of the thread on day one, and as a result the gamestate benefited whatever angle hem was pushing. as outlined in point #1, this was scum motivated or a very misguided townie. i feel really bad to lay this blame at a single player's feet, but hem was absolutely the captain of day one and there's a pretty clear abuse of power.

5) takutai is a really fucking weird n1 kill. you would expect scum to go for a fairly strong, widely-townread voice. i understand hem isn't a perfect kill after he led the town down a toilet on d1, but he's kind of the obvious kill to disrupt town cohesion? i'd argue oopsie would also have been a decent kill to disrupt cohesion, but i think hem remaining alive with oopsie dead (especially with ckd onto oopsie) would have put the spotlight back on hem. i'm going to make some points:

5a) takutai wasn't a major voice for a lot of the phase, but they were a cohesive voice when it counted.
5b) takutai did have some posts which make sense as a tpr. i think hem is the only person who picked this up really (297). i can expand.
5c) takutai's reads were, like, not accurate. they had el/oopsie/gera as the scumteam for the better part of the phase, and had greeting as locktown which wasn't evaluated until the end of the phase.
with the kills we've seen + what we know of the masons, please consider that this is a scumpool of 2-3 town, and a locktown of 1 scum. deciding on this kill would *not* have been trivial.





---

ok gotta run. i can do a better case expanding on where i'm seeing these things against hem (with post references and all!). i can expand on why scum!dragons/klick is a really weird reality. i can expand on why ckd is town, but i don't really want to. i can expand on why gera is unaligned. lemme know what will help.


if this all happened on d2 already and i'm dumb let me know, but like. sure hem could be town here. but he could absolutely be scum. he just keeps doing things which align too closely with what the scumteam needs to happen to win. his negligence has had a tendency to benefit scum. his deliberate actions have had a tendency to benefit scum. at times he's seemed 'tonally towny', or even worse, convincing, when he did it. but there's too obvious a pattern of scum-siding here to look past. if it walks like mafia, talks like mafia and makes cute monkey noises like mafia, we need to kill it.


also consider if we're epic wrong and hem+dragons is actually town/town, then dragons is forced to evaluate the game and we get a really cool new perspective which can no longer afford to be tunneled

[humaneatingmonkey]

bro my day 1 was bad but I've hit scum two days in a row are you kidding me

[humaneatingmonkey]

sure hem could be town here. but he could absolutely be scum.

so, null?

you say i "scumsided" like your slot didn't support Roden's elimination. i townsided when i hit scum two days in a row! my reads were basically gamestate - a gamestate where we hit two scum two days in a row! omfg

[the worst]

stop defending yourself. we already know your rhetoric is good, i'm confirmed town and literally above going down the rabbit hole with you. make a better case if you want to survive today

[Elements]

Does anyone not think the scum in is {Hem,std,bob}

[humaneatingmonkey]

stop defending yourself. we already know your rhetoric is good, i'm confirmed town and literally above going down the rabbit hole with you. make a better case if you want to survive today

how can i make a better case if i wont defend myself? duh

if the play is to eliminate me first and to eliminate std next, im not opposed to that. that's fine. we're still winning. i just wish we eliminated std first.

just annoying that i would still be considered top execution despite hitting scum twice in a row

[the worst]

u bussing after that d1 makes a lot of sense but I need to do the full read.

sorry you're so charismatic and persuasive if you were a lesser monkey I'd have no qualms with going into the night with you still alive

[humaneatingmonkey]

what how does it make sense

[Save The Dragons]

why did you vote bob start of day

what makes you think bob's town now

[humaneatingmonkey]

i covered it previously

at the beginning of the day i thought both of you were of equal priority for elimination. after giving it some thought, bob's claim was more town than scum in that i think it's suicidal to play the way he did yesterday. he at least already knows there's three masons, and he would probably be disincentivized to claim a wifom role while he's in PoE. zero benefit to scum wincon, which is to survive until ELo.