Micro 1091 - Prism v. 1L Year [Game Over]

[GuiltyLion]

I think if theres a mafia in the three PRs it would have to be Dunnstral for balance reasons

what did dunn do to luke at night then aside from visit?

I think if Dunn is scum is maybe an investigative like rolecop or tracker and Luke outing meant his role didn't have any real utility so it was worth building a plausible claim in the event that he's tracked

I do think tracker + RBer is a lot of power in the event scum dies D1, maybe both scum have PRs

[GuiltyLion]

Also I wished they talked about Meuh and Guiltylion

do you think this is scum-indicative, and if so, how

[GuiltyLion]

anyway, those are my thoughts

I will likely vote Meuh again but that would give Alisae the hammer so I'm holding off a little bit longer

[Dunnstral]

Spoiler:

Something in my brain wants to claim that scum!Meuh would be more likely to remember the situation she was in when she made the mind meld claim- because the current state of the thread would likely influenced her course of action

While town!meuh would more easily mix up the time line - because (1)her explaining why she said she mind melded with RH and (2) her wagon forming, would be 2 non-intrinsically linked events that happened in her mind.

(I also don't think that scum!meuh would choose to out and out lie about the order of events)

I don't actually know how much stock I am putting into that take, but it was my first reaction to seeing it her realize that she had the timeline wrong.

When she voted for RH9, she posted:

VOTE: RH9 I'd rather not die

Doesn't this mean that her vote on RH9 was due to not wanting to be voted out instead of because they started scumreading RH9?

Her vote was not inclucded in my thought.
I was talking about her misremembering the timeline between her wagon forming, and her making 1319. (Which is not a one and done post, but required her to go through RH's iso)

Like the reality of it was, she made 1319 while while she had 1 vote, and RH had just hit e-1. Then her wagon formed. Then she voted RH for survival.

But when she recounted it in 1387, she seemed to think that she was already at e-1 when she wrote 1319.

I think it is possible for Meuh to be mafia and still get things mixed up. They don't have to be playing in a calculating way, they can be responding to things reactively.

With that said I'm not sold on that but what she was doing there is otherwise scummy IMO.

[Dunnstral]

SirCakez what do you have to say about 1460?

[Dunnstral]

I wish we would hammer I don't think there's much more solving to be done here without a flip

Cakez like you thought here, isn't the idea of getting a flip here sooooooo nice? You can put someone on E-1!!

what r u talking about who can cakez put on e-1

I think they are trying to trick SirCakez into hammering Alisae by acting like they are at e-2. That is how I am reading this at least.

[Dunnstral]

I think that I am committing to the idea that RH is the better elim.

The transition from RH e-1, to Meuh e-1 was too smooth and easy. Not a hint of resistance from anyone but me - actually, every single one of the potential Meuh partners happily encouraging the Meuh elim > the RH elim.

That transition feels like the scum team either:
-Does not care which one goes over because both are town.
-Prefer the Meuh elim, beacuse Meuh is town.
-Is exactly Meuh+RH, and therefore could not influence the transition basically at all.

None of those worlds have scum meuh / town RH, which makes me think that RH/Ali is the more correct play.

adding onto Meuh/Dunn theory, then this would mean Dunn playing around his current good standing + a Meuh bus would be enough to ride through to a win. also there'd still be an option for RH9 to get limmed first, he may not have even fully expected that Cakez and I would both jump onto his wagon, he floated going back to RH9 1326 before Cakez switched soon after

So I voted RH9 to e-1, waited a bit, and then decided to bus Meuh before Pooky could hammer?

1326 comes 20 hours after the mod's vote count above it, the thread was completely silent and nobody was showing any support to my idea of Meuh being mafia at that time, that is why I offered to go back.

[Dunnstral]

I think if theres a mafia in the three PRs it would have to be Dunnstral for balance reasons

what did dunn do to luke at night then aside from visit?

I think if Dunn is scum is maybe an investigative like rolecop or tracker and Luke outing meant his role didn't have any real utility so it was worth building a plausible claim in the event that he's tracked

I do think tracker + RBer is a lot of power in the event scum dies D1, maybe both scum have PRs

We didn't mass claim on day 1. If I were a mafia tracker/rolecop I'd be looking for other town power roles. It's not true that my role wouldn't have utility. Also I think your full theory here, that I gambitted my power role and then bussed my buddy is convoluted and reaching for a reason to call me mafia rather than coming to a natural conclusion.

[Dunnstral]

Also I wished they talked about Meuh and Guiltylion

do you think this is scum-indicative, and if so, how

Because they are not pushing or townreading the players who I feel attention should be focused on. Yes I do think it is scum indicative.

[GuiltyLion]

Because they are not pushing or townreading the players who I feel attention should be focused on. Yes I do think it is scum indicative.

if "attention should be focused on" both Meuh and GuiltyLion, that would be because one of us is scum with Alisae, yes? given that your vote is on Meuh you're saying the team must be exactly Alisae+Meuh? and how come it's scummy to not talk about me in that world, all three players can't all be scum

[Dunnstral]

I didn't say that was the team. I don't think it is Alisae + Meuh because of the way Meuh turned their read around on the slot for survival.

[Meuh]

I think if theres a mafia in the three PRs it would have to be Dunnstral for balance reasons

what did dunn do to luke at night then aside from visit?

I think if Dunn is scum is maybe an investigative like rolecop or tracker and Luke outing meant his role didn't have any real utility so it was worth building a plausible claim in the event that he's tracked

I do think tracker + RBer is a lot of power in the event scum dies D1, maybe both scum have PRs

We didn't mass claim on day 1. If I were a mafia tracker/rolecop I'd be looking for other town power roles. It's not true that my role wouldn't have utility. Also I think your full theory here, that I gambitted my power role and then bussed my buddy is convoluted and reaching for a reason to call me mafia rather than coming to a natural conclusion.

I think you targeting Luke as a tracker/rolecop isn’t really much of a gambit here?
Checking anyone else and getting tracked would end up with the question of “why did you visit them?” If you claim protective, it’s weird af you didn’t target Luke. if you claim investigative, you’re forced to give some sort of result and you probably get limmed since Luke’s also claiming investigative. So what you could claim is pretty limited. Considering we had 2 miller claims and a VT claim, the odds of you being tracked were pretty high, and when weighing the utility of an investigative check vs being potentially seen visiting Luke, picking the second option isn’t very gambity. (Especially if you were a rolecop and could get solid information on Luke’s shot count as an extra bonus)

[Meuh]

I wish we would hammer I don't think there's much more solving to be done here without a flip

Cakez like you thought here, isn't the idea of getting a flip here sooooooo nice? You can put someone on E-1!!

what r u talking about who can cakez put on e-1

I think they are trying to trick SirCakez into hammering Alisae by acting like they are at e-2. That is how I am reading this at least.

Thought it was 5 to lim if I’m being real, those posts asking for the votes were spur of the moment

[Meuh]

I feel like every once in a while someone checks in and goes “Meuh/Dunn, amirite?” and that makes me think Dunn is even more likely to be scum, cause scum would adoreeeeee lumping me in there and getting me as a mislim at some point (I think Pooky, Cakez, elle, and now GL have all pushed it?)

[Meuh]

Quietly hoping that the wagon will lose steam on its own is not all that uncommon for scum to do imo.

as a general rule I disagree with this because I think scum usually feel pressured to Have a Stance on their partner as they understand people are gonna be going back and looking at people's reads on the flipped scum. if Meuh is doing buddies with RH9 here she was keeping him in a very null-y tier:

I think Pooky flips scum more than RH9 at this point, but I probably should give a closer look to his ISO.

Dunn > GL > Pooky > RH9 > Cakez > Lukewarm
My lim preference at the moment

I guess it's possible she's just trying to coast and skate by without a firm read on her buddy but I am not sensing a real agenda positioning around an upcoming incriminating flip. she was advocating (somewhat strongly) that Dunn/I were the scum team and in the RH9/Meuh world that theory would be immediately dead when either of us green flipped.

I think the Meuh/Dunn interactions are much more likely to be S-S given how decisively Meuh was pushing Dunn earlier yet how much that's tapered off (despite her still claiming to scumread him).

and if Dunn is scum then chaining me to him makes sense too

What am I supposed to do??? Push Dunn and scream into the void about how he’s scum? People pretty clearly weren’t interested in doing Dunn, I’d still adore it but I also don’t wanna waste my time pushing for Dunn when no one else wants it to happen

[Meuh]

Like Lukewarm disagreed with me on Dunn, I didn’t find the counter-point compelling but my response to it didn’t change his mind, and he seems to think Cakez is more likely to flip scum here?
Cakez has just been sitting there saying the PR claims are good
Pooky was actually shading Dunn and saying his claim was the most likely to be fake and then just went “oh actually I believe in all the PR claims ”
RH9 seemed willing to believe Dunn could be scum but his reads were super fickle and he didn’t have a strong view on Dunn
Pretty sure you’re the only one who was like “yeah, scum definitely flips in the PRs” but weren’t you pushing that Cakez was scum?
Where’s the wagon? What would be the point of me pushing for Dunn being scum?? Especially since a lot of people are clearing him on mech, which is a lot harder to actually convince someone they’re wrong on (tracker/rb/doc would be very unbalanced here but obviously some people disagree)

[Meuh]

One of my initial thoughts was that scum could have neapolitan, and that a miller would mess with their results rather than cop results, but that seems kinda silly? With no cop claim, I'm inclined to think they're just named townies at this point? No clue if this lines up with what Prism would do as a mod though

So, it'd figure one of Dunn/Cakez/GL isn't telling the truth, then?
Because Luke had no way of faking a result on Dunn, given he claimed first.

I mean at least one of them isn't if you/Pooky are actual Millers.

In this neapolitan world, Luke could fake a result on Dunn if they were both scum, but that would leave Cakez as the only town PR and that's not very balanced. I don't think we live in a neapolitan world though if I'm being real

In general, I think the only world where Luke is scum is a world where Dunn and/or Cakez are lying about the amount of shots they have? 1-shot doc + 1-shot rber seems kinda weak? But also I could theoretically see someone see millers as named townies and that somehow swinging balance back to about even, so meh.

I'm thinking Pooky's just town, and Cakez' play around the claims actually looks fairly good here. Page 42/43 look good for them both. So maybe it's just Dunn/GL? I think you can be scum but I don't see it right now
Though what power would scum!Dunn use on Luke? Rolecops do see initial shot count in a check as far as I know, so maybe scum would want to gauge it?

Dunn why did you claim specifically the 1-shot aspect of your role

did you consider withholding the number of uses

I did consider doing that but valued true claiming for figuring out the setup and if other claimed roles are real.

That and I didn't want to cause problems if fake claiming led to people questioning my role, like if there were another gated protective role in the setup.

HMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
I think there's a fair chance that's the thought process Dunn genuinely had here, but as scum
Claiming full doctor or a doctor with more than a shot would be bad if there was an actual town protective. At first I thought this discouraged GL/Dunn because GL hadn't claimed yet and Dunn has no reason to fear a scum!GL claim, but Cakez also hadn't claimed, but DID allude to being a PR

I'm even more suspicious as Luke has claimed he found yet another PR, which, two millers, another visiting PR, Luke

and my role

seems absurd. We should probably mass claim, someone in the PR claims is lying.

I'm alright with mass claiming. Luke should probably claim what they saw first to verify their role.

HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

Like I did the math
I'm not a VT, to clarify what I've been alluding to. So if all the PR claims + Luke's track PR are legit that would make the setup

Ydrasse VT
Bell VT
Pooky Miller
Meuh Miller
Luke 2shot Tracker
Me non-VT
Whoever Luke tracked visiting someone
Scum
Scum

That doesn't look like a legit setup to me, thus why I think in the PR claims there are scum, either whoever Luke tracked or in the millers or potentially Luke himself. Like was said we can check him now with his claimed target.

Luke claims to have seen a visit -> Cakez claims non-VT, not the specific role -> Dunn insists Lukewarm should claim before everyone else -> Lukewarm does claim -> Dunn claims a low-power town role that even he himself noticed wouldn't contradict ANOTHER town protective claim (??? Why is this a thought he would even have as town, if I'm a 1-shot doc in a setup with a 2-shot tracker I'm not thinking there's another protective somewhere)
He's just scum and his play around the claims lines up entirely with what a scum player who visited last night would want to do here

VOTE: Dunnstral

Like there you go, this is why Dunn is scum, still applies now

[Lukewarm]

We didn't mass claim on day 1. If I were a mafia tracker/rolecop I'd be looking for other town power roles. It's not true that my role wouldn't have utility.

I generally agree with this. The fact that the scum team did not kill me, feels like they were worried about a protective who would be protecting me for my claim.

With Me+Meuh+Pooky+Ali claimed day 1, if the scum team had a tracker or rolecop, they would be killing AND tracking/rolecopping inside of the rest of Bell/GL/Cakez/Dunn. If you are positing Dunn+Meuh, that means that scum had a 66% chance of finding the protective by shooting+tracking inside this pool.

I don't buy that scum!Tracker or the scum!rolecop would have targeted me night 1.

[Lukewarm]

Because they are not pushing or townreading the players who I feel attention should be focused on. Yes I do think it is scum indicative.

if "attention should be focused on" both Meuh and GuiltyLion, that would be because one of us is scum with Alisae, yes? given that your vote is on Meuh you're saying the team must be exactly Alisae+Meuh? and how come it's scummy to not talk about me in that world, all three players can't all be scum

.
My general impression of the Ali catch up was : "wow, that sure was light on stances." Like, half the posts of her catch up were to talk about mech. Her only posts about

anything

that

anyone

did at

any point

this game being potentially scum indicative, was directed at pooky. Who she called scum before she read the game.

Anti-spew was a thought that crossed my mind.

But I decided to ask other people for their impression before sharing mine, and Dunn had the same take.

[Lukewarm]

UNVOTE:

i dont feel good about this anymore

luke r u sure you want this

Honestly, I am not super confident in my solve. Not because I don't find the ali slot the most suspicious, but I feel like I have too few town reads this game, which does not feel great.

[Lukewarm]

I think the Meuh/Dunn interactions are much more likely to be S-S given how decisively Meuh was pushing Dunn earlier yet how much that's tapered off (despite her still claiming to scumread him).

I lowkey think that if Meuh is scum, then Dunn is The Least Likely Partner on the player list.

Dunn voting Meuh, when he was already on an e-1 RH wagon was completely unforced. A lot of people had voiced suspicions on Meuh, and her wagon gaining momentum was not unexpected. Hell, 8 hours before I voted RH, this was my own stance

I think that my number 1 choice for elimination today is Meuh.

Furthermore, if he WAS partners with Meuh, I don't think he posts 1326, double checking if anyone wants to elim Meuh -- he just takes the opportunity to move his vote back off of her "because of the lack of interest."

[Lukewarm]

At the moment, the only person I would consider moving my vote off of Ali fo, is to Cakez.

I find him scummy, and after Ali's 1428, I am further questioning if my role + his role can even fit in the game.

[Lukewarm]

Open question to the Player List:

If you were choosing between only Catboi/RH/Ali Slot and Cakez, which would you choose?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

the thing about Cakez is that if he's scum and we hit his partner he's forced to clear someone tonight and that shrinks his room of operation and I kind of feel like he can only be scum with the Ali slot aka Catboi

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

the only person cakez can be mafia with is catboooooi

i still kind of stand by this read and i guess i should explain it since he might actually get yeeted today.

so like cakez is not very good at interacting with people when he's mafia - he lacks confidence in himself to not slip his alignment and i find that he comes off as a bit stuttery and self conscious and falls back on hyperbole/nonsense when he needs to make shit up.

so when i saw him talk with ydrasse earlier in the game i thought that looks kind of like town cakez

the reason i say it could be cake/catboi is because catboi is the only person in the player list who would actually coach cakez through a convo like that/pump him up in the mafia PT to go go go.

now obviously this read isn't like the most solid piece of work I've done but I can't feel good about yeeting Cakez today.