If Timmer scum then Merlyn is cop and scumteam of Timmer/??? deliberately chose not to night kill.
If Merlyn scum then Timmer is indeed the jailkeeper who jailkept Merlyn and likely stopped her from killing (there is still a world though where scumteam Merlyn/??? chose not to night-kill).
The question I suppose comes down to do you think it's more likely that scum deliberately no-killed to cast suspicion or do you think mafia was blocked from killing via Jailkeeper.
Deliberately chose not to nightkill and then revealed a roleclaim unprovoked that would be immediately contested if it were false.
I understand if you're town it might seem ridiculous from your position
but I'm not sure if it's *actually* that ridiculous considering your position coming into today
I guess I should also consider why scum!merlyn would think it's her best bet to counterclaim instead of just claiming vanilla
I know you've been hard scum reading Timmer for quite a while and you acknowledged that but it's not clear to me what made you decide Merlyn was more likely to be lying
In post 1171, Dannflor wrote:
I'm a little alarmed by the sudden consensus that merlyn is more likely to be lying
Funnily enough this is the bit that stops me from being firmly on Timmer's side here. Town has gotten all the previous executes wrong - if you subscribe to the 'scum is controlling/influencing these wagons' theory then this Merlyn consensus feels weird.
In post 1174, TimmerRC wrote:
Deliberately chose not to nightkill and then revealed a roleclaim unprovoked that would be immediately contested if it were false.
There's logic for both here. No nightkill means the potential pool of scum is higher and mafia doesn't care if it's ELO or MELO cause they win either way. A risky roleclaim also isn't that out of the left field because it forces town into a 1v1 where getting it wrong means scum wins. Even if town does get it right then town still has to get past ELO tomorrow - stats wise that doesn't work out too bad for scum. Also scum knows there's a PR out there somewhere - if the PR has a guilty on someone (as Merlyn is claiming in this case) then scum aggressively claiming to try and shut down any such turnabout would make sense.
Not saying I fully subscribe to this - but it's not as unlikely/impossible as you might think.
In post 1177, Dannflor wrote:
can i ask who everyone's guess for merlyn's partner is?
The annoying thing is everyone who could be Merlyn partner (Dann, Kittie, Knott) all have reasons why I don't view them as partners. I think I'm ruling out Dann because Black's reaction to the VIP/Merlyn slot fakehammer did not seem like a scum who actually thought their partner just got surprise hammered (unless Black knew it was fake and was acting which tbf is possible) so between Kittie/Knott I think I lean towards Kittie as Knott has had a lot of argument/clashes with VIP whereas Kittie's clashes felt a lot weaker and with no actual votes behind it. That being said the strange turnaround from Timmer to Merlyn from Knott does feel weird and could easily be scum switching gears and wagoning their partner as the town consensus seems to be leaning against Merlyn and they don't want to be top scum candidate if Merlyn flips scum.
Well, I would point to Occam's Razor on this one. That is a very convoluted, ballsy, yolo plan to execute, right down to revealing my fake claim and literally stepping away from it ask how i should proceed, it would ALL be a complete act. Or, i'm the jailkeeper and i stopped the kill.
There are 2 kinds of people in the world... those who can handle incomplete statements
Knott tried to E-1 them without warning - that'd be super ballsy for a scumplayer... not impossible but enough to have this scumteam pretty low down. Kittie I think he has only addressed once a single time super early into Day 1, he has defended her in passing though... perhaps new!scum in a team together not realising a lack of interactions looks pretty bad? Black/Dann also has scumteam potential - I know Knott mentioned the 'wagon dissuading' thing which I don't reeeally find too scummy but I can absolutely see Black coaching Timmer halfway into Day 1 because his posting was pretty sparse and suspicion was slowly piling up and then having that mini-argument in thread to set-up this sudden re-engagement/improvement of playstyle... though maybe that's reading a bit too much into it.
In post 1182, TimmerRC wrote:
Well, I would point to Occam's Razor on this one. That is a very convoluted, ballsy, yolo plan to execute, right down to revealing my fake claim and literally stepping away from it ask how i should proceed, it would ALL be a complete act. Or, i'm the jailkeeper and i stopped the kill.
Okay, let's use Occam's razor- why would I counterclaim? I wasn't in trouble, as scum I would have to cook up a whole fakeclaim. Why? The simpler explanation is the truth, I have a role that makes yours impossible.
I think you didn't intend to lolhammer yesterday, and this is an attempt to a) clear you all the way to the end for a win or b) distance from your buddy to clear them.
In post 1153, Merlyn wrote:
Uh huh. Convenient that you left it open to pretty much anyone.
To be fair he did ask/indicate multiple times he wanted/was ready to say who he had targeted - you also line up with his brief description of who he had jailkept before he revealed it as you.
I went back and looked this again- he only says it once, and he says the person he targeted he's 'neutral' on. This covers pretty much anyone but you I think.
Kittie mentioned something that had been a hunch of mine as well, that Afrayed was a friendly neighbour. @Afrayed, if you happen to be a FN, now would be the time to say so since there's no FN /cop combo possible and it would bolster my claim.
There are 2 kinds of people in the world... those who can handle incomplete statements
I know you've been hard scum reading Timmer for quite a while and you acknowledged that but it's not clear to me what made you decide Merlyn was more likely to be lying
To me Timmer's argument on the night action makes more sense and Merlyn has not really provided a counter to that argument
In post 1183, Cometbright wrote:
I know Knott mentioned the 'wagon dissuading' thing which I don't reeeally find too scummy but I can absolutely see Black coaching Timmer halfway into Day 1 because his posting was pretty sparse and suspicion was slowly piling up and then having that mini-argument in thread to set-up this sudden re-engagement/improvement of playstyle... though maybe that's reading a bit too much into it.
I believed it at the time. still want to but Timmer's argument is compelling, and where is the counter to it from Merlyn that shoots it out of the water. I think we are being a little to deep thinking with this. unless you or anyone else can break it down so that Timmer's argument has at least a 60% doubt factor? For what it is worth I feel Kittie is the partner now. Based on current interaction.
In post 1186, TimmerRC wrote:
Kittie mentioned something that had been a hunch of mine as well, that Afrayed was a friendly neighbour. @Afrayed, if you happen to be a FN, now would be the time to say so since there's no FN /cop combo possible and it would bolster my claim.
In post 1152, TimmerRC wrote:
They were the most clearly townie player in the game imo, I thought they had the best chance of being targeted for a kill.
I had a similar thought that Comet might well be targeted after her interaction with me and then that used against me today, or am I being too simplistic here. and then Merlyn saying she checked me out and got a town result, but then as scum that would already be knowledge for her. Your argument Tim with regard the setup makes sense and I can't see where Merlyn can counter it.
So looking at VIPs ISO, he spends a lot of time interacting with Dragon, Gimli, Black, myself, Timmer and Python in fact he is very forceful and argumentative with each of us and he interacts with Comet too but doesn't engage in a defensive way too much, just normal interaction.
however his interactions with Kittie, seem considered and pretty much fillers. he lists Kittie as scum early on but she moves up his list as his time in the game continues. I might be guilty of subjectivity but here are his posts/interactions and mentions of her
Spoiler:
In post 59, Aneninen wrote:
Kittiesecret.
Another newer player, she could go either way.
Null
In post 114, Aneninen wrote:
Kittiesecret - I really don't like her posts, lean scum at best
In post 112, Aneninen wrote:
A perfect example for posting something without posting anything.
In post 193, Aneninen wrote:
I didn't like Kittie's 157.
I can only see two excuses for not being involved with real reads. (1) It's too early and (2) You're a new player.
In post 194, Aneninen wrote:
About the same players? If you mean the same players who're in this very game, you're right.
And I really, really don't like that you end everything saying that it's "too early". It sounds like you're trying to find excuses for your reads.
In post 195, Aneninen wrote:
I know it's sheer speculation and it's "too early" for saying things like this now*, but what if the scum are among those who're townreading me right now?
*There it goes, Kittie, a "too early" from me.
In post 207, Aneninen wrote:
Kittie is a good place for your vote in my opinion... but I find her scummy, and you don't.
In post 219, Aneninen wrote:
Kittie.
Unfortunately, I don't have time to answer everything you posted thoroughly (will do so if needed), but I'm telling you what my problem is. I can see too easily a scum mindest behind your posts. Something like "Ugh, I drew scum. What to do now? Maybe I could have a nice style and try hard to look town and I could get away with that."
I may be wrong, especially if I think about my very first game here. (No surprise that I was terrible. I raged out early and accused the more experienced players that they simply wanted to remove the newbies because they drew scum - while the actual scum had to do nothing but grab some chips and popcorn.)
But you're still my top scumread right now.
You may be right that my reasons are shallow, but in this game phase it's rare that there are "deep" reasons. Maybe it matches your "too early" mindset, but a "too early" mindset doesn't make the game moving.
Comet, 215 - if someone defends me for no reason is an Auto-FoS for me, but whatever.
Dragon, 217 and maybe everyone - you're the 3rd or 4th players with too-few-to-no scumreads. Is it only my mindset that has a different threshold on the concept "summy"?
Nevertheless, not much happened, as far as I can see.
In post 226, Aneninen wrote:
Erm... Kittie clearly told us that she was new. I clearly told you that I'd back after 5 years. Knott and I even talked out our common meta. In what universe does it add up to put Kittie and me on the same experience level?
(Kittie, you may find me offensive, but this was no offense. It's more than enough to check the games Knott linked to see how "genius" I in this game can be.)
In post 351, Aneninen wrote:
Kittie and Black looks a bit more town than before.
DragonEater is much scummier, the posts I mentioned above, and the opportunistic vote on me before.
Knott - I don't know, let's see what comes next.
Timmer produced nothing new, still townish.
Comet may be town.
Python is still town, I can easily see a town mindset behind that "trollhammer", too. (Why is it called "meme"?)
Gimli is scummy, regardless of that NAI part about the hammer.
So, it's something like
[town]
Python
Comet
Timmer
Knott
Black
Kittie
Gimli
Dragon
[scum]
UNVOTE: VOTE: DragonEater
In post 518, Aneninen wrote:
Kittie.
498 - That's indeed a good summary on Gimli. (I've not checked it whether it was cherry-picking though, it may happen later but I've been thinking Gimli's scum anyway.)
In post 521, Aneninen wrote:
In post 508, Kittiesecret wrote:
why were you so concerned that someone wasn't voting?
I don't like when someone's not voting for a long time. It's only my personal POV, but I consider it anti-town. Even if I remember doing the same shirt in certain games before.
In post 673, Aneninen wrote:
I have no time to read on right now, but I try to post a readlist (posts over #652 are not included yet)
Knott - I still find him scummy, see my earlier posts. Even if you call me a tunneler.
Black - I don't see her as obv-town as a lot of other players do, but I don't think this Lim would happen Today, so whatever.
Comet - Townread on her (at least I know the correct pronoun now).
DragonEater - Unsorted, I owe you a re-read.
Gimli - Still scummy, partly because of that reaction on that "meme", but not only.
Kittie - I can see a town mindset here.
Timmer - I can see a town mindset here, too. But that Timmer-Black interaction might be a thing.
Python - Townread from the beginning, it hasn't changed since then.
Really concise, because I had little time for this.
In post 886, Aneninen wrote:
(4) Kittie, I hope you're reading now. It's NOT the fact how many times Dragon voted. It's the fact that he ended up hammering Gimli - literally the only player he hadn't voted for before!
In post 886, Aneninen wrote:
(4) Kittie, I hope you're reading now. It's NOT the fact how many times Dragon voted. It's the fact that he ended up hammering Gimli - literally the only player he hadn't voted for before!
In post 921, Aneninen wrote:
My last read on Kittie was something like "could be town after all".
In post 488, Aneninen wrote:
which you commented like this (before your quote):
but that is the part that sticks with me. its not a misquote. And I believe I have said that I recognise the rest of the post, so no I disagree, Your words are such that it says to me we cannot trust you. Do you deny that you have said that you played scum and yet won because you were blatantly over doing the look how town I am? you're words not mine.
I acknowledge that I have placed people at E1 without informing everyone, and I have confirmed in the rules that I have to do this. Please note that this is only my second game back after a long absence and my first game didn’t last long. So I am still rusty. Sorry
It's not a rule per se. Players aren't required to make note of voting to E-1. It's considered a good practice in Newbie games.
I’m sorry, but does no one else see what I see. Black, Timmer and either VIP or Gimli?
That’s my scum, now.
VOTE: Timmer
At the time of vote mod error had the votecount listed as me and VIP voting for Timmer so he appeared to be at E-2 - the vote by you put him at E-1 from our perspectives (which you can tell as he says as much in #688).
In post 688, TimmerRC wrote:
So both Gimli and I are at 3 votes and you vote this bluntly without explanation and without mentioning it is e-1?
I'm not accusing you of breaking the rules. What are you arguing here? I mentioned that you put Timmer to E-1 unannounced which indicates to me that if Timmer is scum then it's unlikely you're his partner. Are you arguing that you are Timmer's scum partner here?
