Large Normal 244 | Quotes From my Linear Algebra Professor or Random City Skylines or Random Songs: Town Wins!

[Psyche]

if the hu tao read is substantially rooted in meta, it was premature of me to call it bad. i got the impression that your meta read was somewhere in the class of experience-based vibes

[Psyche]

i townread bbm now

[Psyche]

i think ive shown a lot of conviction, but they've primarily been in townreads, sure. soon i'll go down the playerlist and see if i have enough of those for a confident poe or if i must re-evaluate my townreads.

[Psyche]

btw pisskop what's your answer to the question: what if im not lying?
for your JV read i mean

[Psyche]

yeah! you just quoted the crumb

also, self-serving and defensive? honestly, yes, guilty as charged. have to object to the "nothing but" part though

[Psyche]

still sleeping ill go through all my reads next time i have time for a longpost

[Psyche]

im awake but i still don't feel like doing it this feels more a noonish type of activity

[Psyche]

its just work. unless you really just want me to c/p the playerlist and put a word next to each of them

[Psyche]

I wouldnt be against changing my mind, but you are not helping yourself. At this point your behavior is scummy.

you're wrong

[Psyche]

im probably going to be looking at this when i should be listening to a talk in about 20 or so minutes

btw this drew convo reminds me of the hidden reason 6 for aiming my shot at bbmolla was that even if i ended up dying tonight N1 yall would still be able to guess my shot target and interpret the outcome more easily if BBM survived. pretty pointless typing this now that i think about it though.

[Psyche]

outcome transparency! though it doesn't depend on my complex aspect as much as i thought at the time
anyone who sees my flip N1 would be able to reasonably guess that i aimed BBM
this drew thing is a good illustration of why that transparency is useful
especially if it turns out he really did block JV haha

[Psyche]

yeah re: bbm vig but i think most readers have agreed it was easy to interpret as insincere

[Psyche]

I technically think ideal strategy is to kill me either tonight (JV) or tomorrow but bob's point is the best reason to lim me today. Substantial discussion about who I should shoot has good odds of leading to more PR claims. I'd initially thought RN claimed bc he saw the "shoot RN" instruction but he has denied it I think.

[Psyche]

yeah. i find it unfortunate for reading him that he'd say that. also why'd he claim, then? whatever

[Psyche]

so im convinced! i need to die. still not gonna self vote. honestly still not really motivated to do a readslist. is it going to change the calculus surrounding whether i should die? is it going to affect people's reads and increase the probability of a good lim down the line? i don't really think so. so what's the pointtt

ah but this reminds me of the fatalism from D1

[Psyche]

i guess there's a niche scenario that could unfold where a top alternative lim candidate claims a role and people want to verify it. for example, if hu tao had claimed vanilla, telling me to shoot her while intending to shoot me would be a way to test her claim without killing her. but there are too many reasons she could survive the night, especially if we assume drew isn't why I didn't get a fruit today. that assumption directly implies there's another intefering role around that hasn't claimed. and i would not imagine at this point that the role is held by town.

[Psyche]

ok agenda for this hour:
- discuss RN
- sum up a readslist

RN:
maybe thing im curious most about surrounding the claim is whether this is normally how Informed works? because it's tough to believe that the role would have so many modifiers in a normal. but maybe also tough to believe that scum would claim a role so weird. but idk, i don't have confident intuitions around how scum-RN would think through the issue, it gets wifomy. i think we'll have to look to other posts to catch a read on him. will say that i don't really believe in freudian slips and i am a phd candidate in memory science who's read some papers around intrusive memory so it's not just for loser 2012 meta reasons but because semantic/phonological slips are much more common and don't reflect belief/knowledge states in the same way. i think anything else i can say about RN will involve skimming his iso in the way i plan to do for everyone else presently.

ok readslist next. like i said earlier, all my confident reads are townreads so if you see a scumread in it it'll probably be poe -- but confident poe!

[Psyche]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deese%E2% ... t_paradigm

pls ask me to elaborate on the "freudian slips aren't real" deal bc that's actually interesting. there's a computational model of how memory for word lists work that is pretty good at what it's for and it accounts for many phenomena that come up in the research paradigm linked above. this leaves me thinking that these intrusions are well understood. if we take as a given that *semantic* slips -- that is, language failure due to semantic similarity rather than secret knowledge/beliefs -- are both 1) pretty common and 2) hard to distinguish from freudian slips, then maybe that doesn't imply that freudian slips "aren't real" but it does imply that that it's nigh impossible to tell if a slip was freudian.

also, anticipating an objection: yeah it's maybe a stretch to generalize this to irl or a game of mafia but i'm gonna -- aggressively

[Psyche]

still townread
pisskop and aisa because of their replacements
TL but i can't remember the original reason
zzzx for stuff surrounding the self vote iirc
bbmolla for recently reviewed reasons
jv for recently reviewed reasons
hmm why do i townread cat. aw man my iso is huuuuge

uggh this is so grueling. im not a readslist guy. it's in my meta ive been in this situation time and time again. everyone was right im a whiney guy that's my thing. don't make me do this. it hurts so much. i can't do it. send me to my maker. the fates command it. sometimes you get a crosskill sometimes you get soft guiltied as town. we have to be stoic about these things. i wanna go play sea of stars.

[Psyche]

pisskop and aisa because of their replacements

I dont understand, you believe this slots are town, bcz they were replaced? I dont really consider replacement as AI

hmm. i think i do, at least in a lot of cases? but i feel like this is a question that someone has already explored in a MD thread that I do feel motivated to look for. My stance on these replacements isn't as simple as "scum more frequently stick it out", but if replacements aren't disproportionately townslots, then I'll agree I'm being too casual with these townreads.

[Psyche]

So why were you so cryptic about reason 6 before now?

oh i can say who i aimed at, too, sure. it was BBM. reasons:
1) scumread the guy
2) figured it would be lame to not commit to it with my shot
3) decided that even if the flip proved town, i'd get to not fixate on the scumread through D2
4) can you imagine how delicious it would be if I was proven right? I even planned what I'd say. A reference to flavorleaf's posts about my "2012 meta".
5) even if i turned out to be wrong, i could make a really shadey post down the line referencing justifications for limming people just to move the game along, shrink the playerlist to make scumhunting possible, take out antitown slots for the health of the meta, etc. of course it would have all been cope.
6) a sixth reason

it's incorrect in retrospect, but for me the sixth reason was contingent on the complex part of the role, something i was still cagey about revealing in this quoted post because i was hoping to use the information to sort bbmolla later (e.g., to call him out if he commits to one of his D1 claims)

[Psyche]

woah i was wrong. it seems mafia replace out more often. at least in newbies. i wonder why? boring? yeah probably. or perhaps it's a choking under pressure thing. no way to know at this time.

guys. i don't know shit. this is not news to many of you

[Psyche]

viewtopic.php?t=75532&hilit=replacement
viewtopic.php?t=39739&hilit=replacement

not a big enough effect to be useful for reads but the direction disconfirms my capacity for good intuition. one of these even has slices by player experience. replacements by more experienced slots are even more scum-leaning. it's kind of a relief to imagine that it's actually possible to measure scumtells this way though, even if one can argue these threads don't go far enough to do that. almost makes me imagine it's possible to be good at mafia.

[Psyche]

why couldn't i vote to save my skin as openly as hu does here
reactance i suppose

[Psyche]

VOTE: hu tao

i might as well

[Psyche]

It is at least reassuring that I made the decision difficult.

[Psyche]

could tell me to aim RN for the marginal test of their claim? has advantage of not even potentially killing a town PR

[Psyche]

i mean the bulletproof. he claimed bulletproof. didn't really imagine that he could be lying and town. am i missing something?

[Psyche]

i was typing a reply to pisskop but some random guy started a whole convo by asking me about my backpack and now im in love with a random guy

[Psyche]

nope don't remember his name. oh well

[Psyche]

do people just do that? talk to strangers? this psych degree is doing nothing for me

[Psyche]

i had a kid of fun what a wild game

[Psyche]

lot

[Psyche]

Virgo took such unnecesary rick though. Anti-town move imo.

Nah I'd do it again. I did it as a joke, they reacted awfully then they went "oh Im vig you must have GS me" and as a Vig myself I doubted heavily so kept with it.

you'd fakeclaim and all that again

[Psyche]

u break my heart jacksonvirgo
u break my heart