Mini Normal 2316 | Halloween | Endgame

[AnimatedWiz]

Also,

E-2

.

[AnimatedWiz]

I don’t understand saying the game is over—if we’re right about Python being scum (which is pretty guaranteed based on that first post from them), then we’re at 6:2, which is honestly good odds.


I also do not think 2081 is a thought process that comes from an actual JOAT—admitting to AtE is already weird enough, but then saying it’s so you like a vanilla Townie? I don’t understand this line of reasoning at all.

[AnimatedWiz]

I’m not sure why they would kill Roden, to be honest. It would make more sense—if they wanted an easy scapegoat—to either jump onto my push for Roden and then eliminate me, or just push me for my insistence on killing someone.

Like, if I was scum, why would I townflip the slot I’ve been trying to eliminate the entire game?

I also really don’t understand while Smiley is still alive—I feel like we’ve kind of confirmed Smiley as actually being a Jailkeeper due to Python flipping as scum. Why keep around someone conftown who can potentially block a kill?

[AnimatedWiz]

i think annie's reads + the incredibly sketchy switch to limming blackstar at the last second makes him my leading candidate for scum. annie explain your progression on blackstar please?

I thought BlackStar had solid reasoning for scumreading me for most of the game, but once we all claimed, it was very clear that, if I trusted Black and Smiley (which I did), either BlackStar or UsesPython were blocked from committing the nightkill. Out of the two of them, I trusted UsesPython more, and therefore chose BlackStar to go first.

[AnimatedWiz]

To implue that "Mafia fears hitting doc save".

I don’t understand what you mean by this.

[AnimatedWiz]

I would like to push forward the idea of eliminating OWER—I feel like he has been piggybacking a lot of wagons, including the D1 wagon on me, the Wartortle wagon, and the BlackStar wagon.

VOTE: OutWorldER.

[AnimatedWiz]

To implue that "Mafia fears hitting doc save".

I don’t understand what you mean by this.

Ah, took me a second, but I get this now—I am unsure if I, uh, believe THS’s claim, but this could be fair reasoning to explain it. I just feel like there are better targets than Roden for the nightkill, though.

[AnimatedWiz]

I had a good town read on Smiley that has been borne out by mechanical evidence, and I also was correct about Black. I’m not all wrong, and I feel a lot of my reads are understandable looking back. You voted for a lot of the same people too.

Anyway, I don’t think voting for UsesPython after BlackStar townflipped and now being vocally suspicious of THS is evidence in favor of me “truckin’ like nothing’s changed.” My reads can and do change based on new information and periodic reflection—and if my scumread on you hasn’t changed much since very early on, it’s a sign that you haven’t done anything worthy of being townread in my opinion for the majority of the game.

[AnimatedWiz]

You have been on the sidelines the entire game as the town tears itself apart, quietly joining wagons and helping push for people who have also flipped as town (556, 1384, 1655, 1894, etc.).

I don’t trust you.

[AnimatedWiz]

It doesh't imply that if i am town i must be correct.

There are too many of us here that have voted for miselims to conclude that poor voting is not town-indicative—we pretty much all have blood on our hands.

[AnimatedWiz]

I see Enchant’s theories here making sense—I’m unsure if Naerys’s/Roden’s thoughts about Shea are correct though, as I’d more readily think OWER was the partner.

[AnimatedWiz]

How i see game.

Out of table:

Black - Macho 2-shot Watcher

- Killed by Mafia N3.

Spoiler: Acts

N1: Annie. No one.
N2: Python. Smiley, BlackStar.
N3: Can't act.

BlackStar - BG

- Executed 3D

Spoiler: Acts

N1: Thestatusquo
N2: usesPython

Python - Mafia Goon

- Executed D4.

Roden - VT

- Killed by Mafia N4.

Hu Tao - VT

- Executed 2D

Wartortle - VT

- Executed 1D

Enchant - ???

- Living


POE:

Smiley - Lazy JK

Spoiler: Acts

N1: THS.
N2: Python
N3: Annie
N4: Annie

THS - JOAT (Vig/Tracker/Doc)

Spoiler: Acts

N1: Vig (Thestatusquo). Fail.
N2: Track (OWER). No result.
N3: No Action
N4: Doc (Smiley).

Naerys - VT

Annie - VT

OWER - VT

Thestatusquo - VT

Mafia kills:
N1: THS tries to kill TSQ. Direct Jail.
N2: Python tries to kill Black. Direct Jail.
N3: THS kills Black.
N4: THS kills Roden.


THS>Annie>OWEN probably must win.

Start voting.

Honestly, I’m fine with this PoE—would personally like to go for OWER second instead of me (for obvious reasons), but I think this all lines up with everything I’ve been able to figure out so far. Happy to sign off on this with my vote.

VOTE: TheHoldSteady.

E-0.

[AnimatedWiz]

Why not? It tracks with everything I’ve said earlier this day—haven’t trust OWER, don’t trust THS any more. I’m happy with a POE that includes them, even if it means I might not be alive to see it completed D7.

[AnimatedWiz]

Why not? It tracks with everything I’ve said earlier this day—haven’t trust OWER, don’t trust THS any more. I’m happy with a POE that includes them, even if it means I might not be alive to see it completed D7.

I expected more resistance really.

Eh whatever, if we lose we lose.

I mean, I’m not just going to lie down and let myself get voted tomorrow, but if the worst case is me going first, then OWER after, it seems like a great deal in my opinion. Just a bit of a slower win.

Hm… I should consider Smiley’s case on Enchant, but the mech work seems pretty clear so far. I’ll have to double check some possibilities I may have missed during the night.

[AnimatedWiz]

TheStatusQuo- Notable lack of interaction between the two slots while Python was alive. Could be partner indicative potentially. 2070 does stand out to me though. TSQ never voted Python day 3 (there only vote was 2008 on Naerys) and the closest they came to suspecting Python that day phase was 1738 which doesn't match the confidence expressed in 2070. Strikes as a misrep to me.

What does a misrep mean in this case? My brain can’t seem to figure it out.

[AnimatedWiz]

Thank you for explaining, Smiley. I think you’re right about what you meant—even though THS can switch on issues quickly during his town games, I don’t remember him ever hiding that fact. I do find it odd that he would say that after how he voted for me instead of Python.

[AnimatedWiz]

Thank you for explaining, Smiley. I think you’re right about what you meant—even though THS can switch on issues quickly during his town games, I don’t remember him ever hiding that fact. I do find it odd that he would say that after how he voted for me instead of Python.

???

I was referring to TSQ's stance on Python. Didn't mention THS at all.

Oh! Wow, I really cannot read—too many acronyms, I fear.

[AnimatedWiz]

This is… so horribly confusing. The only person here I feel I can actually trust at this point is Smiley, but even then the nagging feeling about a Jailkeeper being kept alive makes me unwilling to say it for sure.

Is there some world where Smiley is lying? Have we just all assumed he’s telling the truth when there’s a possibility of him just lying? I mean, he could have lied about jailing Python so we would eventually eliminate them and therefore it would “confirm” him, right?

Or is this just another WIFOM play? These kills are so weird—I don’t understand them mechanically.

[AnimatedWiz]

Bro you're just trying to blow smoke at this point, there's zero way this take is genuine. Town does not come into Elo trying to discredit the practically confirmed JK at this point, after limming a Maf off the back of his jailkeep. A toddler could figure out that Smiley being scum here is ludicrous.

I don’t think considering every possible take is a bad idea when we’re at LimLo—making sure that my one townread is mechanically and socially very trustable is the best protection considering how little actually information we have about everyone else here.

Plus, if do all trust Smiley’s not lying, then the fact that I was jailed twice in a row and it never stopped a nightkill is decent mechanical evidence in my favor—not confirming, but it’s more than most of the rest of you can say.

You have literally no mechanical clearance—the only claimed night action on you is a n2 track by THS, which had no result. Either you are an unclaimed Ascetic/Commuter, or there’s an unclaimed Roleblocker who targeted you that night. That’s super suspicious—especially now that THS townflipped so we know he wasn’t lying.

[AnimatedWiz]

I feel like a Rolestopper would probably have prevented another night action by now if we had one, so I’m leaning towards the unclaimed Commuter/Ascetic idea far more—an idea which is really suspicious because a) both those roles are kind of odd for a townie in this set-up, and b) lying about not having either role (especially when it would help explain another’s night action) doesn’t help the town.

[AnimatedWiz]

Finally, what use is there in sheeping Black when her last posts are just her saying her reads are in flux because she doesn’t have any real information?

I'm not confident in anything atm

I think I need to see some flips to figure out what's going on here

VOTE: BlackStar

Feel free to hammer

I keep talking myself into lots of different scenarios here and I just won't be sure about any of them until I see some alignments

I can see sheeping THS’s final read on me, but not hers—not like this.

[AnimatedWiz]

Plus, if do all trust Smiley’s not lying, then the fact that I was jailed twice in a row and it never stopped a nightkill is decent mechanical evidence in my favor—not confirming, but it’s more than most of the rest of you can say.

Except it's not evidence, not anymore. That stopped being evidence the moment THS flipped, because it confirmed that there is some kind of blocking role. If there's a Roleblocker/Rolestopper they can just block Smiley/rolestop the killer every night and Smiley's JK is useless.

Is this why you left Smiley alive? So you could say "well he's blocked me for two nights in a row and there wasn't any kills" while also roleblocking him to get a fake clear?

Hm, a Roleblocker would actually make leaving Smiley alive more logical, I suppose—especially since the Lazy modifier means that if the Roleblocker gets eliminated, it doesn’t change too much. I didn’t consider that.

[AnimatedWiz]

But then again, I do feel like having a Roleblocker and a Jailkeeper in the same game would be a nightmare for NAR if they targeted each other (since you then have to decide if the Roleblocker gets protection or not), so I’m not too sold on that combination of roles after reading up on the wiki. Maybe a Rolestopper would work instead (one that can’t self-target)?

[AnimatedWiz]

Mod Notes:

Currently having an issue accessing the first page of the game - OP and thread title will be updated as soon as this is resolved.

I’m also having this issue on multiple devices—I think the actual page’s data or something might be corrupted? Shame to possibly lose all the rules and info about flips and such, but at least it’s near the end of the game.

[AnimatedWiz]

viewtopic.php?sid=&f=2&t=91848&user_select%5B%5D=19042

You can use this link for the time being. Post #0 is blank but you can see VCs and flips at the very least.

Thank you Dann—this will probably end up being really useful.

[AnimatedWiz]

Also, I think we’re all in agreement about slowing down to make sure we don’t make any stupid mistakes, so hopefully that means we can all try to put our heads together and figure this out (even OWER and me).

Also, who else has played with Shea here? I’ve been getting repeated weird vibes from his posts in the past, and I’d like to check here if that’s just due to me not playing with him before or someone else is getting similar vibes.

[AnimatedWiz]

I would really appreciate if we didn’t try to randomvote so early (or even at all here)—I would like the chance to read up on Shea’s past games to get a better picture of his play.

[AnimatedWiz]

Thank you for quoting me—I should be free to finish my reading in about 6 hours or so and then give my feedback on everything.

[AnimatedWiz]

Hi, I've returned!

My thoughts on Shea: y'all, I fear the theory of mind has left me, because even reading past games has not made understanding Shea's playstyle easy—I read through Amnesiac Mafia, and I would like to say Shea has been quite different this game, which leads me to be lean towards a townread for him? I, hm... my read of him and Black arguing around Day 3 made me incredibly suspicious of him for a time (I noted that I felt like at least one person in that interaction was scum), but upon looking at how he discusses with people in previous games I think he might just be like that. I wish I had a better grasp on him and his playstyle, but I don't think I got a smoking gun pointing one way or the other—just a better push towards town for him in my opinion.

Can you explain how you got to Hold being the top of your PoE here? Looking back through your stance towards OWER seemed more solidified to me then your stance on Hold (Compare 2130 towards OWER to something like2118 towards Hold), so it feels off to be content with limming Hold first there.

Quite honestly, it was two things:

a) At that point in the day, I saw that getting a final, solid push on OWER was not reasonable given how much pressure had mounted on THS instead. Considering THS was settling somewhere around my 2nd strongest scumread at that time, and Enchant had promised a plan to go for OWER after, I thought it a reasonable compromise. Plus, I had been accused of sitting pretty and trying to slip under the radar, and I figured I should hammer there to prove a point.


b) THS was acting really, really odd. THS thought I was the best vote when BlackStar flipped green instead of, y'know, Python (who had pushed the policy elimination of both of them). Additionally, THS just announces that he feels it's certain that there's a Mafia roleblocker instead of his failed night action being due to an unclaimed Ascetic/Commuter OWER 2015, which I thought was indicative of partnering. Also, the claimed night actions were really weird in my opinion, like how he tried to shoot really early on (which upon looking at some stuff on the wiki, is not that uncommon and is sometimes recommended)—I thought there could even be a possibility of THS lying about a failed track on OWER after me and Black were hard scumreading OWER for a while before to get us to miselim OWER maybe (I thought of this as possible, but unlikely—but it still influenced me, I fear).

I would like to vote OWER, but I want Shea to have a chance to share his thoughts first.

[AnimatedWiz]

Also, I'm a bit confused—why are you disregarding the idea of Shea and I being partnered, Smiley? I don't know if me needing to read up on him and saying I can't read him easily is like, great proof against that.

[AnimatedWiz]

Hi, I held the idiot ball again!

I now understand you mean that we can't be partnered because we both would've just voted for Enchant or OWER to win the game instead of asking for more time to think.

[AnimatedWiz]

b) THS was acting really, really odd. THS thought I was the best vote when BlackStar flipped green instead of, y'know, Python (who had pushed the policy elimination of both of them). Additionally, THS just announces that he feels it's certain that there's a Mafia roleblocker instead of his failed night action being due to an unclaimed Ascetic/Commuter OWER

in 2105

, which I thought was indicative of partnering. Also, the claimed night actions were really weird in my opinion, like how he tried to shoot really early on (which upon looking at some stuff on the wiki, is not that uncommon and is sometimes recommended)—I thought there could even be a possibility of THS lying about a failed track on OWER after me and Black were hard scumreading OWER for a while before to get us to miselim OWER maybe (I thought of this as possible, but unlikely—but it still influenced me, I fear).

Edited to include the correct reference post.

[AnimatedWiz]

...the edit is not linking to the right one either—I meant 2105.

I think I'm going to go lay down now.

[AnimatedWiz]

I don’t want to hammer right now—I would like to think and consider my options because I really would like to not be responsible for the final miselim if I can help it.

[AnimatedWiz]

I do think it’s likely OWER here, but I would like to try to figure out who the most likely partner pairing is here—I could see OWER as scum and Enchant as a partner with Python, with them perhaps bussing each other here in the hopes that it’ll make the other on the chopping block not look like a good target?

Or is it possible that I’ve misread Shea, or even Smiley (not really possible on the last part, as it requires a really complicated series of lucky actions for the facts to line up how they do).

[AnimatedWiz]

Ugh, but if I stall on OWER’s elimination, people could claim I’ve been bussing all game until the end when my true partnership is suddenly revealed.

This is awful. I hate being a deciding vote in these kinds of situations—so many factors to weigh.

[AnimatedWiz]

Looking back at Enchant and Shea’s ISOs, I do feel like Enchant has said more, and pushed more… but I think that a lot of Enchant’s reads, such as that on me, or Black, or Smiley, are overall odder looking back as opposed to Shea’s—however, I do think it’s a bit hypocritical of me to say that having incorrect reads is scummy considering I have a track record a bit beneath 50% right now.

I just… the vibes feel off with Enchant when taken as a whole. Both have such different playstyles from mine—but especially Enchant’s, because they actively try to hide their thoughts and information to fly under the radar and to keep people from using it against them. It’s not necessarily scum or town-indicative for Enchant to play like that, but I think they’ve played the endgame here differently compared to our last one together—a lot more theorizing and pushing and it’s hard not to think it’s suspicious due to the change.

I… I feel like our scumteam is Enchant and OWER, and I am going to really, really hope I’m not screwing this entire game up by voting:

VOTE: OutWorldER.

[AnimatedWiz]

…Smiley? You have to be kidding.

[AnimatedWiz]

Yeah, no kidding. I really focused on the wrong people—and really didn’t analyze the possibility of Smiley being bad once I was challenged about it.

Outplayed, I fear. Good game.

[AnimatedWiz]

I’m so confused.

[AnimatedWiz]

OWER, were we right?

[AnimatedWiz]

So now it’s me, you, and Shea. I, the person with probably the most trouble reading, is stuck with the two people he had the most issues in getting a read on.

[AnimatedWiz]

Taking out Smiley was probably the best choice in each scenario where one of us is mafia—he’s the closest to conftown out of all of us and would mean the other townie alive would probably just vote for the mafia by default.

Shea probably had the least reason, as Smiley trusted him the most out of us, but I don’t think him killing me or Enchant would be worth the possibility of getting an insta-vote.

I probably have the most reason to kill Smiley, because it helps validate the idea that I’m the most mech-cleared due to be jailed, and since Smiley said that OWER and I couldn’t be paired due to us firing on all cylinders at each other it also makes that idea seem more ironclad.

[AnimatedWiz]

I’m unsure what to make of Enchant’s bluff about them being mafia during twilight—could be a play to make the other mafia member reveal themselves by responding weirdly, or could just be an attempt to look like that.

Neither Shea or Smiley responded in ways that made super suspicious, so I don’t feel like I got too much out of that interaction aside from just being confused.

[AnimatedWiz]

Enchant has worse associations overall, especially with Python, but Shea’s been a lot less directly interactive with anyone. I need to comb through the ISOs and see what I can find on that.

Currently leaning towards Enchant, but I’m not going to be stupid and vote early without getting a better feel for what’s happening here.

[AnimatedWiz]

Well, if I was mafia, I would say making sure I get to the final ELO with the most mech in my favor is a good change from my last game where mech did me in.

[AnimatedWiz]

It’s very unlikely that a game with two Roleblockers with the ability to target each other a Jailkeeper and a Mafia Roleblocker in this case) would be allowed by the mods to avoid issues with NAR (since you run into issue about whether the Roleblocker is considered protected or not).

However, a situation with Roleblocker and a Rolestopper who cannot self-target (a Jailkeeper and a Simple/Disloyal Mafia Rolestopper) is easy to resolve and would also explain THS’s lack of results on OWER.

We know that both mafia who have died are not Rolestoppers, which means that the remaining mafia HAS to be the Rolestopper. If I’m the last Mafia, I could not prevent my own jailing, which then prevents me from killing anyone.

Technically, OWER could have been the one to commit both kills, but that requires some good guessing on targets.

[AnimatedWiz]

In the universe where I’m mafia, OWER has to commit both of those kills.

In the universe where you or Shea is mafia, either you or OWER has the possibility to commit those kills.

I’m not confirmed, but there are more possibilities explaining those kills if I’m not the scum here.

[AnimatedWiz]

What are you talking about? Both nights I was jailed, someone died (Black N3, Roden N4).

Plus, it doesn’t matter who the Rolestopper targeted on N3 or N4 as long as it wasn’t me (which, if I’m the Rolestopper, I probably can’t target myself to avoid NAR issues). What about my argument on there being a Rolestopper instead of a Roleblocker is confusing you?

[AnimatedWiz]

Oh, good catch—has to be a Simple Rolestopper, then! Prevents self-targeting but allows for you to target a Mafia Goon.

[AnimatedWiz]

Because of the issues with resolution—if there is a Mafia Roleblocker, they would have to be unable to target the Jailkeeper, because otherwise it would be difficult to figure out what actually happens

If, for example, Smiley and the Mafia Roleblocker target each other, and then THS uses his vigilante shot on the Mafia Roleblocker, what happens? Is the Roleblocker protected due to the Jailkeeper? But the Roleblocker is preventing the Jailkeeper from jailing them… but the Jailkeeper is prevent the Roleblocker from targeting them, and so on and so forth.

None of the Normal modifiers you can give a Roleblocker can prevent this while still allowing them to prevent THS’s track on OWER.

But a Simple Rolestopper is immune to these issues since it can’t target themselves, and also allows for the failed track to be explained since it can target OWER.

[AnimatedWiz]

Even if theory that Mafia Rolestopper exist, then it does nothing to help your case.

You could simple target OWEN every single time. If OWEN jailed you block jailkeeper. If you jailed, OWEN still free to act.

I suppose it’s still possible, that’s true.

I do think my argument about there being a Simple Rolestopper holds up though—I would find it incredibly unlikely for there to be any other role that could explain the results here.

[AnimatedWiz]

Probably because OWER was more suspicious at that point in the game. He had been the target of a major wagon already, and by contrast Python was townread by most people.

Likely thought that a possible Vigilante kill or Cop investigation on OWER would be more likely than someone doing the same to Python.

[AnimatedWiz]

Then why not let OWER perform kill as well.

Mm, that is a good point. Scum almost certainly knew that they could multi-task (heck, even Python said it publicly later on), so that wouldn’t explain it, and Python wasn’t a Ninja or Unstoppable and therefore doesn’t have an inherent reason to kill over OWER.

I guess that, since OWER performing the kill is the optimal decision here, we have to assume it’s either a) bad strategy or b) weird strategy. I mean, the kills

have

been rather odd all game, so I think it fits into the pattern we already have.

[AnimatedWiz]

I just wish we could know the thought process behind everything. I can see the Black and Roden kills explained as trying to assist OWER’s push on me, but I would think it easier to just help me miselim Roden and then miselim me due to all the backlash.

[AnimatedWiz]

Oh wow, well, there goes my entire argument.

Thanks for clearing that up, though—I should’ve read more of the wiki.

[AnimatedWiz]

If there is a Roleblocker and they targeted THS, it explains why Python did the kill, and it also means I have no actual mech clear.

Aw man, it makes more sense with our known night actions

and

it means I’m up for elimination again.

[AnimatedWiz]

Well, I would say that Shea hasn’t been very interactive like I have (and is therefore in an easier position to hide), and I also was right about OWER when it counted—I could have easily just voted for you and hoped Smiley would’ve chosen the wrong choice.

Additionally, I’ve been sharing my thoughts a lot, so it’s hard to say I’ve been trying to fly under the radar like last game when you can read my progression on people and see my arguments in detail.

And why should I vote Shea instead of you, anyway? You’re not cleared either.

[AnimatedWiz]

Most obvious way to learn this for you is to ask mod.

Failure to do this simple question but making assumptions is why you fail. You are not interested in knowing real answer, you interested in providing show that you put some brainstorm.

I fear the answer is just that I have a bad habit of assuming myself extremely competent when it’s not always the case—that, and I find my logic better when I externally process with others who can see the holes I unknowingly leap over.

[AnimatedWiz]

None. In fact i already know i am dedicated way for you to win.

So can you cut it off?

What do you mean?

[AnimatedWiz]

I’m not going to be intimated into voting someone when you could be scum yourself—you’ve provided little defense and I find your unwillingness to cooperate not favorable to my read on you.

[AnimatedWiz]

No, I’m not going to do that either.

I would like to talk with Shea and do some more theorizing before I commit to anything.

[AnimatedWiz]

If you are very convinced it’s me, vote me.

But I think you’re fronting.

If you vote me and Shea doesn’t follow up, I know Shea’s town and you’re scum.

If you vote me and Shea does follow up, I get miseliminated. You either lose as town or win as Mafia.

I think both possibilities suck for town!you, so I don’t think you’ll actually go for it.

[AnimatedWiz]

Mhm. Too many hoops to jump through as to how he could be bad—there was technically a possibility, but it would require a lot of weird play to explain all the info we had.

Plus, OWER had a lot of more suspicious moments and also had the issue of possibly being an unclaimed Ascetic.

[AnimatedWiz]

Smiley wasn’t on either wagon, so I don’t think your argument works. Even if he was on a different wagon, I can townread someone and still think they’re reading incorrectly—they’re not 1:1 correlated.

A team with you and Shea made no sense with my read on OWER, and I had a lot of faith in that read at that point.

[AnimatedWiz]

Smiley wasn’t on either wagon, so I don’t think your argument works. Even if he was on a different wagon, I can townread someone and still think they’re reading

We were at ELO.

One townie voting townie = Instalose.

Exactly.

If you have a strong scumread on someone, would you wait and allow someone else to possibly miseliminate? Or would you be confident and vote your scumread?

[AnimatedWiz]

I’m cringe, but I’m free! Whee!

[AnimatedWiz]

Here’s the thing: if you want to say it’s weird for me to vote during ELO, that’s chill. But don’t expect me to believe you when you threaten to vote me.

Commit or quit.

[AnimatedWiz]

I’m afraid it might take a few days for me and Shea to figure this out—at least 24 hours, I imagine. Sorry.

[AnimatedWiz]

Thanks—I’m feeling sure I can get this right.

[AnimatedWiz]

Do you think that me and OWER were performing scum theatre instead?

[AnimatedWiz]

I think I’m confused—you’re saying you don’t think OWER and I coordinated a double-bus, right?

If so, why do you think Enchant and OWER’s crossvote at the end is more town-indicative than me and OWER going at it for the entire game?

[AnimatedWiz]

Glad you came around—whole point of this is to have fun figuring stuff out together, after all.

Also, if I may ask, what ways do you think your opinion could be changed? What evidence to you seems notable?

[AnimatedWiz]

Well, early on (D1/D2) I saw OWER piggybacking on DE/Roden’s push on me, and I called it out. OWER then repeatedly tried to push me for elimination in retaliation, while still continuing to piggyback on votes and trying to fly under the radar about it.

It started really coming to a head around when Roden got killed, because OWER used it as reasoning to push me even further (because my read on Roden was incorrect, and because the person I was pushing had been killed). I thought that was extra suspicious and tunneled onto OWER because of it (enough to think that a tenuous association with THS was a good reason to kill in addition to the odd night actions).

I thought OWER was trying to frame me with the nightkills (Black, who had switched her read on me right before she died, and Roden), and it turns out I was probably right about that.

[AnimatedWiz]

Also, here’s the issue, Shea: if I trust that you know what you’re talking about, it means that Enchant probably isn’t scum—which leaves you as the only possibility left.

[AnimatedWiz]

Which sucks, because Enchant has been my focus for a lot of this endgame—and I just kind of defaulted to you being a townie without fully considering the lack of evidence.

I keep on going back to how Enchant has been very talkative and directful, but sometimes leads us astray, while you haven’t really had a lot of moments of any of that. Perhaps I’ve been confusing null for “not scum” instead of “not anything.”

[AnimatedWiz]

DE/Roden, Black <--- Townread
Hu Tao, Smiley <--- Townlean
Naerys, THS <-- Null
Enchant, Python <-- Scumlean
AnimatedWiz, Wartortle <-- Scumread

Hu Tao gets a townlean from me because I genuinely don't think scum that's playing the way she is would make the vote she made in 264. Python was fairly passive during the Wiz wagon for reasons they've explained but their recent posting feels weird to me as their posts don't seem to align with their vote on Naerys. Naerys is still a null, I don't like her recent posting but I'm willing to chalk it up to surgery and tiredness. THS I'm just going to commit to not being able to sort this D1. Every other read I've expressed here I think I've expressed elsewhere and if not I can explain them.

Your list is missing thestatusquo and me

I could've sworn I put TSQ on there. He's a townread, I don't think scum replaces in to immediately start swinging on (at that time) a player who'd been mostly TR'd by a good chunk of the player list. Also the whole debacle around Wartortle's status as an alt account strikes me as a townie feeling deceived regardless of whether or not that's actually the case.

You I literally just keep forgetting about, you are a blank in my mind, for some reason. Looking through your ISO you ask a lot of questions that just read as softballs to me and I agree with TSQ that you just generally interact with the game in a way I'm not really vibing with.

[AnimatedWiz]

Page 21:
{OWER}
{Smiley, Black, Shea}
{Wiz}
{DE70}
{THS, Blackstar}
{Hu Tao, Wartle}
{Naerys}

I would also like to point that Python had the opposite strategy when they placed OWER high here—the next post after this said the OWER-Shea ranks were fluid between each other.

[AnimatedWiz]

I don’t think it’s impossible for anyone to literally just forget to post a read on someone—after all, I think everyone here has seen how I tend to miss words when I type due to all the repeated edits.

…but I do think it could be a sign? Perhaps with leaving BlackStar out to not make it as suspicious if someone catches him for leaving people out.

[AnimatedWiz]

Are there any other instances of OWER leaving Python or Shea out during a readlist or anything?

[AnimatedWiz]

Mm, I think I have figured it out.

Shea is either extremely wrong (and not willing to be convinced) or a liar. Neither is someone I would prefer to vote with, because he will only vote me.

I stand with Enchant, for better or for worse.

VOTE: TheStatusQuo.

[AnimatedWiz]

If I'm scum here I don't know why I wouldn't just vote ani when enchant said he would insta hammer.

The same reason I talked about with Enchant—if you vote first and Enchant

doesn’t

hammer, I know Enchant is town and therefore I switch to you. It’s a real risky play to vote first as scum.

[AnimatedWiz]

Yeah.

Voting you doesn’t seem like it’ll work to prevent me from getting voted out, so a 50% chance is better than 0%. It’s my best option.

[AnimatedWiz]

I will say, it’ll be incredibly funny if I’m right and Shea is scum for the umpteenth time in a row.

Such low odds for the entire chain.

[AnimatedWiz]

I… really cannot tell if you’re trolling or not. What about that is a scumclaim?

[AnimatedWiz]

Yeah.

Voting you doesn’t seem like it’ll work to prevent me from getting voted out, so a 50% chance is better than 0%. It’s my best option.

This is part of what made me sure it was ani and not enchant tbh though I'm pretty sure I was going to come down that way anyway.

You seemed convinced it was enchant and then as soon as I came in and expressed that I was leaning toward you your entire worldview switched.

Town you would have tried to convince me I'm wrong. Scum you switched to a different target with almost no provocation at all.

I did try to convince you, and I saw it getting nowhere. I know that Enchant is at least willing to consider my arguments, so I’m just banking on that actually working out for me in the end—long shot over no shot.

[AnimatedWiz]

And if I’m wrong, than we’re both fools, I fear—you for not considering my argument, and me for painting myself into such a horrid corner.

But I do think I’m right.

[AnimatedWiz]

Would explaining how the kills make no sense if I committed them work? I was still trying to get through to Black, and I was working to elim Roden.

Would explaining how Enchant has worse associations with Python work? Or even how OWER forgot to read you and otherwise tried to distance himself from you work?

Would showing my consistent explanation for my votes and reads and how they have been far more upfront and detailed than both of yours work?

That’s the evidence I have—if that isn’t going to be convincing, I have little left, especially if you’re just going to repeatedly call me scum.

What is your argument for me?

[AnimatedWiz]

One last note: Shea’s been consistently off the eliminating wagons since D1 until OWER—I may have been wrong about some of the wagons, but Shea has barely cast any votes at all.

I really do think Shea has been trying to slip under the radar and not make waves—to avoid any associations at all and therefore not have anything tying him to the flipped scum at ELO.

If Enchant and OWER’s crossvote is town-indicative, and my repeated crossvotes with OWER are also town-indicative, one person is left without that. Shea.

[AnimatedWiz]

And now I know you're scum so it’s hard to care about those arguments now.

Then if that’s the case, it’s down to Enchant.

Enchant, do you have any questions for either of us?

[AnimatedWiz]

One last note: Shea’s been consistently off the eliminating wagons since D1 until OWER—I may have been wrong about some of the wagons, but Shea has barely cast any votes at all.

I really do think Shea has been trying to slip under the radar and not make waves—to avoid any associations at all and therefore not have anything tying him to the flipped scum at ELO.

If Enchant and OWER’s crossvote is town-indicative, and my repeated crossvotes with OWER are also town-indicative, one person is left without that. Shea.

This is a disingenuous argument. You've read my scum games and you know that's not how I play as scum. Enchant has played with scum me too and knows that I'm not shy about voting or being on wagons as scum.

And yet during my scum game, I was very afraid to post reads and have associations, which I’ve done my best to show is not the case in this game. Enchant has also been playing the game differently from when I last played with them—far more talkative.

We all have changed behavior from previous games, so I can’t rely on that to indicate anything at this point.

[AnimatedWiz]

What motivation has OWEN to suicide on me previous day and for Mafia!Shea to vote OWEN first?
What motivation has OWEN to suicide on me previous day and for mafia!Animated to hammer OWEN?

I think OWER knew he was the most likely elimination for the next day—it makes sense to bus him at the end to give the last scum towncred. The only issue is that us three all voted for him in the end.

[AnimatedWiz]

There is very little concrete info to go off here, I fear—mostly just reads and interpretations of how people have acted all game.

I think Shea’s lack of interaction and lurking is suspicious.

Shea thinks my constant interaction and changing votes is suspicious.

Neither reason is ironclad—it’s just up to what you feel is more scum-indicative. We just both agree that it’s less likely to be Enchant than the other one.

[AnimatedWiz]

I mean, the fact that Enchant hasn’t hammered yet is good proof of being town, right? So at least we’re both correct about that.

[AnimatedWiz]

I do feel like the confusing kills and tactics make sense for mafia!Shea—lurking helps prevent being investigated (which is important for a Mafia PR if there’s a Neapolitan or something), and also means that at the end we have a hard time tying down associations.

Additionally, Shea knew people had been suspicious in the past, since THS tried to shoot him N1—would likely mean he would want to mitigate any future attention since he was barely saved.

[AnimatedWiz]

I mean, the fact that Enchant hasn’t hammered yet is good proof of being town, right? So at least we’re both correct about that.

Oh, don’t play with your food.

[AnimatedWiz]

That’s amazing news, then. Glad I didn’t get too swept up in scumreading you.

[AnimatedWiz]

Gotcha—will likely be a while due to work, but I should have a full argument by the end of the night.

[AnimatedWiz]

Shea’s Actions

D1

Spoiler: Early Manipulation

Shea took my initial distrust of Wartortle and used it to build a wagon—I think that 413 sticks out to me as a weird post looking back, because it does benefit scum!Shea to call me town there. It gives him a plausible reason to push Wartortle, since Wartortle and I are scumreading each other.

Shea also claimed his push on Wartortle was based a lot on how Wartortle was acting and claimed he was lying about being new to MafiaScum (371). Shea then gets extremely defensive and claims that people aren’t engaging with his arguments when BlackStar doesn’t buy it (470). This is a tactic he has used multiple times when people don’t agree with him—claiming someone isn’t actually answering his position and that they’re just trying to look busy or bad at the game.

BlackStar is later on a target for Shea (503), which I think is partly because I claim that BlackStar has good intuition but is not good at self-defense (so he’s a good miselim target).

Shea also mentions thinking Roden’s recap is suspicious (661), which I think is another instance of him jumping onto my scumreads.

D2

Spoiler: Weird Aggression

Shea comes into D2 extremely keen to take out Naerys, claiming she had a weird reaction to the flip (826) and is either scum or bad at the game (839). At this point, I’ve still been suspicious of Naerys.

Shea also asks me what my reads are (1009), which feels like more piggybacking on my pushes looking back.

A while after, Shea starts to claim he can’t keep up with the game (1053), which I think is a way to avoid interacting with others that he will use repeatedly.

Shea continues his BlackStar push (1230), and uses the argument of how he doesn’t think BlackStar actually refuted his argument earlier as evidence for his read. I think this is again Shea trying to get rid of someone who is not listening to him.

Shea also notably townreads OWER in 1240. This is a good place to mention how Shea has had no correct reads so far—he only busses his scum buddies when there’s no real excuse for him not to (once BlackStar flips green, OWER being in a crossvote with you).

When Black and I don’t agree with Shea’s points on OWER and BlackStar (1246, 1259, 1293), Shea starts to minimize Black’s arguments (1257, 1264, 1266, 1269, 1285), which matches the earlier pattern—you don’t have to defend with evidence if you make it seem like your opponent is arguing poorly/in poor faith.

This argument continues for a while, and after I note that I don’t think it’s TvT (1308), and that Shea was the scum in that argument (1336).

D3

Spoiler: Sudden Silence

Shea comes into D3 quiet as a mouse, especially after THS claims he attempted to shoot Shea for being suspicious. As soon as Shea makes it clear that he understands that fact (1744), he disappears for 300 posts, only reappearing to actively not vote inside the duo of BlackStar and Python (2008). I think this is due to him realizing people are suspicious of him, and trying to avoid any more attention—and he also avoids having to vote for Python or BlackStar here, so that his hands can be clean of any associations with either.

He says nothing else for the rest of the day.

D4

Spoiler: Lies

Shea then lies and says he wanted to elim Python on D3 (2070), which doesn’t match his previous vote. He also doesn’t vote for Python anyway.

D5

Spoiler: Poor THS

When THS expresses that he trusts the idea of a Roleblocker, Shea tries to shut that down by saying the idea is incomplete (2127) and that THS is somehow not curious enough about the situation (2138).

However, despite now expressing distrust of THS, Shea does not vote for him to keep his hands clean once again.

D6

Spoiler: Set-Up

Shea suddenly changes his tune about the idea of a Roleblocker (2232), and also tries to explain away his absence during the last few days of the game (2240). This feels like him trying to set up for the endgame and get ahead of any arguments put against him.

D7

Spoiler: The Pattern Continues

Shea repeatedly uses the argument that I’m not engaging with his arguments in the way that he thinks is correct (2410, 2416, 2419, 2421, 2423). This is a continuation of the same pattern—trying to minimize the argument of his opponent instead of providing further evidence in his favor.

Shea’s Votes

371 - Wartortle
1238 - BlackStar
1271 - Black
2008 - Naerys
2291 - OutWorldER
2412 - AnimatedWiz

[AnimatedWiz]

That’s my argument on Shea—he has had nothing but inaccurate reads all game, has repeatedly tried to discredit his detractors all game by claiming they are arguing poorly/in bad faith, and switched from being really active to being really quiet right after he found out he was almost killed by a vigilante.

[AnimatedWiz]

Aw, all those citations and it still wasn’t convincing enough to save me from elimination.

GG though—was really fun to try to puzzle everything together at the end! I look forward to playing with y’all more in the future.