open 894: near vanilla (game over)

[Skygazer]

The only world in which Titus actually has a guilty on me is if I both somehow don’t know that she is Jailkeeper and my partner is exactly Kurta.

?? did you spot a crumb yesterday?

No, last night.

then why is that the only world?

[Titus]

The only world in which Titus actually has a guilty on me is if I both somehow don’t know that she is Jailkeeper and my partner is exactly Kurta.

?? did you spot a crumb yesterday?

No, last night.

21 is indeed a crumb. I played back a bit because of IRL and being a PR. I was intending to leave it as very much a joke.

T3's frustration is genuine, both both town and scum T3 would be frustrated here. I am not sure if T3 knew that from a night read or post claim as he'd know I'd leave a crumb early. His posts at the start of the day don't look like he knows he was jailed, and there were plenty of crumbs that were more blatant today than yesterday.

[Titus]

Or there was a doc save and Titus doesn't matter?

That's the universe where T3 is town. That's why it's good to lim T3. Someone is confown. If it wasn't me, that's 3 conftown.

[Titus]

T3, why can't you be scum with K? Is K town?

Am I town?

I genuinely do not think I have said a word about Kurta the entire game so honestly I see why someone might think I'm scum with him. I'm leaning town on him, during the night when I went through and looked at the receipts in 4 or 5 of his posts (nearly) everything checked out and was logical. I normally have much greater success with reading players like him by tracking their reads over a long period of time. On the surface I thought that he could be scum with Black but then I looked at the actual reasons for why he townread Black and they were basically the exact same reasons why I townread Black, just with different posts as our receipts.

In post 166, Black wrote:
Ok. Any thoughts on my vote on you? Do you think there was a reason behind it or did you read 157 as me not having one?
I assumed to glean my reaction to it, to be blunt. More specifically, the reason it gave me the impression from town from you as opposed to scum was that you hadn't provided your reason upfront, and I doubt that scum calculating their actions would make the obviously contradicting move of switching to my wagon like that while giving a tentative sounding excuse, when it could easily be pointed at later as potential sheeping. It feels like there was a towny thought process behind it, like as if you reread my posts and felt something from them that made you change your mind, but hadn't been able to put into words yet. So essentially you were placing your vote on me to try and sense out further what could be causing that vibe.

Yesterday I was scumreading you a lot but if I'm being honest my scumread was a bit overblown and reactive to your vote. Gut says you're town but I dislike how yesterday you didn't aggressively push the solve you had, I would expect you to do more if you were town. I might review your meta later and how you read people because in every game I think your reads are completely disingenuous, but I have noticed differences in certain games. The actual content of your read on me/Black/Kurta is very similar to MBOS 13 but the way you're pushing your solve is completely different and yesterday it didn't feel to me like you actually believed it.

Take here. T3 understands why I might think he's scum with K. If he thought I was the jailkeeper from the start of the day, why does he post this? Why does he go from understanding why I think he might be scum to flipping out when I reveal every reason why.

[Titus]

Why doesn't T3 see how aggressive I am and go oh fuck Titus is pursuing a perceived guilty before I claimed if he knew?

[Titus]

I would vote kurtapika before T3

We can eliminate both of them but I feel much stronger on T3. The difference is like night and day.

Five crumbs on being the jk pursuing a guilty before his outburst. If T3 saw I was the jailkeeper from last night, he knows I'm not letting that go.

well i feel night and day stronger on kurtapika

You sweet summer child. Come to my house. Eat cookies. I love cleaning up cookies.

I will vote, but we have time, we need to be definitive on who is not complicit

Nah. This game is near mathematically over. If we hit scum today, and it's a high liklihood we will, then scum will struggle mightly to win.

why are you pushing this?

Because it's much more likely the jk has a guilty than a doctor heal.

That or K based on a no kill but T3 preferred unless a jk says otherwise. (Won't happen).

[Titus]

Now onto your regularly scheduled programming.

[Titus]

Black, is my theory valid? Yes or no.

Yeah I think there's some weight to it, but I also think Kurtapika is town so I'm not sure if it's the world we live in

This here is the sole Black related post that makes me think T3 might be town. Was Black wanting to focus on T3 because he was town and it would undermine my accurate read on K? Or was it that T3 is scum too and K being easier to defend?

[T3]

The only world in which Titus actually has a guilty on me is if I both somehow don’t know that she is Jailkeeper and my partner is exactly Kurta.

?? did you spot a crumb yesterday?

No, last night.

then why is that the only world?

"last night" as in "when I was reading ISO's during Night 1"

[Titus]

Black part 2 - Post theory crumb

It includes my last post. I just felt that one of its own.

Anyway, Black launches into a 1 v 1 about why scum slip with AK. Skipping the detail on these as it's just AK town evidence.

616 and 617 are letting project push Skygazer and setting up to defend ProjEctRy. Black was doing that precrumb as well. K was a wagon at the time. This suggests that Skygazer was a preferable lim to both ProjEctRy and K. This is evidence

Skygazer

isn't scum. ProjEctRy was either a beard yesterday or is scum.

632 is attempting to dismantle the wagon on K and shade Dann if it fails. Black is subtly panicking here. K is almost certainly scum.

639 is not surprising given what I've said earlier.
723 is me blatantly manipulating Black into a position where she won't bus if scum. Thus confirming partners. She's been anti bus so far so...
754 doesn't seem to be true for Black. Who was she "bussing and then trying to back off before I run

my

her partner over"? Her earliest push was K, which she backs off of. She was technically at least a third. (Aisa voted in 137 which is not caught in the VC). She backs off based on vibes when the wagon dies. There hasn't been a strong push at all from Black. She jumps on Bella nakedly in 260 to get off K. Then it's a naked vote on shaddowez in 512. Not exactly hard bussing partners. More like wagon shopping.


755 is only true if Black coached it as it would be abnormal for Skygazer.


758 is an interesting take. What position would you take if a beard and a lurky partner was pushed? Favor the beard? Discredit the player? Black definitely discredits the player (Dann) but implies a preference ProjEctRy live. ProjEctRy is doing more for scum than K regardless of if ProjEctRy is a beard or scum.


777 Black starts to crack and get paranoid she's my SR openly.


781 Black admits she won't bus, which is precisely what I want.

---- End Part 2----

[Dannflor]

hmmm

[Aisa]

The possible reasons for the lack of deaths last night are:

- The doctor protected the nightkill target
- The jailkeeper jailed the nightkill target
- The jailkeeper jailed the person carrying out the kill
- Scum no killed

It's unlikely that scum no killed. The other three possibilities are all about equally likely from a sheer everyone-acts-at-random pov.

This means there's about a 33% chance T3 is scum because Titus jailkept him. Maybe you think it's unlikely that T3 was the nightkill target (fair enough) - that's still a 50-50 split between "T3 is scum" and "the Doctor saved someone last night".

Now... 50% odds of flipping scum are great odds and I have not been T3's greatest supporter this game, but I think his posting last night is more likely to be a town reaction.

I am a little confused by him saying that he knew that Titus was JK. I assumed he didn't realise she was the JK and would feel better reading that she was. Somehow I still lean towards T3's reaction being genuine

[T3]

This means there's about a 33% chance T3 is scum because Titus jailkept him. Maybe you think it's unlikely that T3 was the nightkill target (fair enough) - that's still a 50-50 split between "T3 is scum" and "the Doctor saved someone last night".

What I've been trying to say for a while is that

if I'm scum, I don't have to be the person carrying out the kill

[Titus]

801 Calls my conviction on K unnatural and wants me to interact with K more.

901 - There is an argument here that T3 is town. However, my theory is Black was wanting to dismantle both wagons. If T3 is town, camel and K are scum by PoE.

935 goes along with this theory. Black is expressing doubt on T3.

957 - Black shopping other wagons.

983 - Black and T3 jump on me together. Feels panicky on Black's part and an attempt to kill the T3 wagon.

1086 - Readwall is whack.

1094 Black is desperate to lim me and/or has no clue I am the jk.

That's the end of Black's posting.

I've detailed townreads on everyone but camel, T3 and K. I've detailed why.

[Aisa]

This means there's about a 33% chance T3 is scum because Titus jailkept him. Maybe you think it's unlikely that T3 was the nightkill target (fair enough) - that's still a 50-50 split between "T3 is scum" and "the Doctor saved someone last night".

What I've been trying to say for a while is that

if I'm scum, I don't have to be the person carrying out the kill

I understand

I think that's a valid thing to point out, I personally think it's more of a small argument in your favour than anything conclusive

[Skygazer]

alternatively, T3 could have made the kill because the other partner was so townie that there was a possibility of them being jailkept for protection

[T3]

alternatively, T3 could have made the kill because the other partner was so townie that there was a possibility of them being jailkept for protection

My partner would have to be Dannflor or maybe OWER in this case

[Titus]

[Spolier=Black posting a deep dive]

@Jupiter 1349 I'm not quoting the entire post, but I think I can answer your questions by explaining our interactions.

We start with some witty banter that was fun.

When Black makes 256 at ProjEctRy, I started to suspect her. The early posts might have been disagreements, but Black knows what newbie scum can do. We've done it. This suggested a pocket of ProjEctRy. 258 suggested to look more at what ProjEctRy was pushing at the time.

If you look at posts 249 and 251, ProjEctRy was denying townreads on AK, Bellaphant and me. In 144 ProjEctRy wants to deny townreads on Dann. Altogether, ProjEctRy was scumhunting, but being wrong in his first game.

This promotion and buttering of wrong reads and chaos is exactly what I'd do as scum.

I know however, if you take a shot at the scumhead, you'd better not miss. So I had to get people to my cause while they think it's their idea. Evil and manipulative, sure but I also had reasons for staying in the back.

I kept watching.

In 260, Black talked about "town vibes" from K, which was the opposite I got but maybe it was the language barrier. Maybe Black was pocketing. So I checked her ISO more. This is more past reading than I ever do in a game, but Black is worth the challenge.

We'll address Black's interactions with K as we progress. For now, she's fine with having "vibes" on K but disapproves of gut hunches I had on K. She "can't argue" 131with vibes for townreading Aisa. 124 The implication is that Black would want to argue. She does want something different from Bella, which strongly suggest Bella is town and so is Aisa.

We then have a conversation about "gut" which is really synonymous with "vibes". I mention in 152 that my K scumread is gut. In 197, Black promotes ProjEctRy based on "gut". ProjEctRy is denying townreads in 144 like we established. At this point, Black is using ProjEctRy to throw out reasons to attack town, which is a common tactic I use. Promoting bad reads.

But I digress. Black in 269 is questioning JupiterXV townreading Dann because of gut and nothing Dann did. This is an implication that if JupiterXV stuck just to logic Dann would remain out of the townblock. This is also notably the first time Black straight up objects to gut. She only offered a different opinion on K. This suggests both Dann and JupiterXV are town. Her renewing the objection in 275 reinforces this. While it's not an issue being a hypocrit in a mafia game, the hypocrisy reveals alignment.

282 and the others in that section are a pocket attempt on JupiterXV. 313 Black is objecting to shaddow sticking up for Aisa's little evidence to TR me. This suggests Shaddowez is town along with Aisa.

348 Black reasonless townreading K. In 349 Black suggests that K's content is better than Sky and Nono. She accuses AK of shade. She takes the opposite position that we should eliminate in the active posters because 1) town wouldn't likely go for a no lim in a cohesive gamestate and 2) with T3 v/la and K being low content himself, an active lim is better as it had high odds of being town.

383 I am taking a back seat but watching. 419 Scum generally don't apologize for actually helpful posts.

463 Black walks back a townread on K. The backing off comes when K isn't a wagon. 477 more evidence JupiterXV is town.

543 is where I drop a hint I think Black is scum. If I shoot there, I cannot miss.

I'll include more solve tmo. But TLDR Project, AK, Dann, Aisa, JupiterXV, Bellaphant and shaddowez are all hinted clear from my pov from just the first 500 posts since Black does not treat K or T3 in anywhere the same manner. Black approaches like a chess match. I'll explain more manipulation tonight or tmo.

Sorry Jupiter, question required to much but explaining the early game is a start.

Black part 2 - Post theory crumb

It includes my last post. I just felt that one of its own.

Anyway, Black launches into a 1 v 1 about why scum slip with AK. Skipping the detail on these as it's just AK town evidence.

616 and 617 are letting project push Skygazer and setting up to defend ProjEctRy. Black was doing that precrumb as well. K was a wagon at the time. This suggests that Skygazer was a preferable lim to both ProjEctRy and K. This is evidence

Skygazer

isn't scum. ProjEctRy was either a beard yesterday or is scum.

632 is attempting to dismantle the wagon on K and shade Dann if it fails. Black is subtly panicking here. K is almost certainly scum.

639 is not surprising given what I've said earlier.
723 is me blatantly manipulating Black into a position where she won't bus if scum. Thus confirming partners. She's been anti bus so far so...
754 doesn't seem to be true for Black. Who was she "bussing and then trying to back off before I run

my

her partner over"? Her earliest push was K, which she backs off of. She was technically at least a third. (Aisa voted in 137 which is not caught in the VC). She backs off based on vibes when the wagon dies. There hasn't been a strong push at all from Black. She jumps on Bella nakedly in 260 to get off K. Then it's a naked vote on shaddowez in 512. Not exactly hard bussing partners. More like wagon shopping.

755 is only true if Black coached it as it would be abnormal for Skygazer.

758 is an interesting take. What position would you take if a beard and a lurky partner was pushed? Favor the beard? Discredit the player? Black definitely discredits the player (Dann) but implies a preference ProjEctRy live. ProjEctRy is doing more for scum than K regardless of if ProjEctRy is a beard or scum.

777 Black starts to crack and get paranoid she's my SR openly.

781 Black admits she won't bus, which is precisely what I want.

---- End Part 2----

801 Calls my conviction on K unnatural and wants me to interact with K more.

901 - There is an argument here that T3 is town. However, my theory is Black was wanting to dismantle both wagons. If T3 is town, camel and K are scum by PoE.

935 goes along with this theory. Black is expressing doubt on T3.

957 - Black shopping other wagons.

983 - Black and T3 jump on me together. Feels panicky on Black's part and an attempt to kill the T3 wagon.

1086 - Readwall is whack.

1094 Black is desperate to lim me and/or has no clue I am the jk.

That's the end of Black's posting.

I've detailed townreads on everyone but camel, T3 and K. I've detailed why.

[/spoiler]

Scum are in camel, K and T3. Please review.

[Titus]

Ebwop

Spoiler: Black posting a deep dive

@Jupiter 1349 I'm not quoting the entire post, but I think I can answer your questions by explaining our interactions.

We start with some witty banter that was fun.

When Black makes 256 at ProjEctRy, I started to suspect her. The early posts might have been disagreements, but Black knows what newbie scum can do. We've done it. This suggested a pocket of ProjEctRy. 258 suggested to look more at what ProjEctRy was pushing at the time.

If you look at posts 249 and 251, ProjEctRy was denying townreads on AK, Bellaphant and me. In 144 ProjEctRy wants to deny townreads on Dann. Altogether, ProjEctRy was scumhunting, but being wrong in his first game.

This promotion and buttering of wrong reads and chaos is exactly what I'd do as scum.

I know however, if you take a shot at the scumhead, you'd better not miss. So I had to get people to my cause while they think it's their idea. Evil and manipulative, sure but I also had reasons for staying in the back.

I kept watching.

In 260, Black talked about "town vibes" from K, which was the opposite I got but maybe it was the language barrier. Maybe Black was pocketing. So I checked her ISO more. This is more past reading than I ever do in a game, but Black is worth the challenge.

We'll address Black's interactions with K as we progress. For now, she's fine with having "vibes" on K but disapproves of gut hunches I had on K. She "can't argue" 131with vibes for townreading Aisa. 124 The implication is that Black would want to argue. She does want something different from Bella, which strongly suggest Bella is town and so is Aisa.

We then have a conversation about "gut" which is really synonymous with "vibes". I mention in 152 that my K scumread is gut. In 197, Black promotes ProjEctRy based on "gut". ProjEctRy is denying townreads in 144 like we established. At this point, Black is using ProjEctRy to throw out reasons to attack town, which is a common tactic I use. Promoting bad reads.

But I digress. Black in 269 is questioning JupiterXV townreading Dann because of gut and nothing Dann did. This is an implication that if JupiterXV stuck just to logic Dann would remain out of the townblock. This is also notably the first time Black straight up objects to gut. She only offered a different opinion on K. This suggests both Dann and JupiterXV are town. Her renewing the objection in 275 reinforces this. While it's not an issue being a hypocrit in a mafia game, the hypocrisy reveals alignment.

282 and the others in that section are a pocket attempt on JupiterXV. 313 Black is objecting to shaddow sticking up for Aisa's little evidence to TR me. This suggests Shaddowez is town along with Aisa.

348 Black reasonless townreading K. In 349 Black suggests that K's content is better than Sky and Nono. She accuses AK of shade. She takes the opposite position that we should eliminate in the active posters because 1) town wouldn't likely go for a no lim in a cohesive gamestate and 2) with T3 v/la and K being low content himself, an active lim is better as it had high odds of being town.

383 I am taking a back seat but watching. 419 Scum generally don't apologize for actually helpful posts.

463 Black walks back a townread on K. The backing off comes when K isn't a wagon. 477 more evidence JupiterXV is town.

543 is where I drop a hint I think Black is scum. If I shoot there, I cannot miss.

I'll include more solve tmo. But TLDR Project, AK, Dann, Aisa, JupiterXV, Bellaphant and shaddowez are all hinted clear from my pov from just the first 500 posts since Black does not treat K or T3 in anywhere the same manner. Black approaches like a chess match. I'll explain more manipulation tonight or tmo.

Sorry Jupiter, question required to much but explaining the early game is a start.

Black part 2 - Post theory crumb

It includes my last post. I just felt that one of its own.

Anyway, Black launches into a 1 v 1 about why scum slip with AK. Skipping the detail on these as it's just AK town evidence.

616 and 617 are letting project push Skygazer and setting up to defend ProjEctRy. Black was doing that precrumb as well. K was a wagon at the time. This suggests that Skygazer was a preferable lim to both ProjEctRy and K. This is evidence

Skygazer

isn't scum. ProjEctRy was either a beard yesterday or is scum.

632 is attempting to dismantle the wagon on K and shade Dann if it fails. Black is subtly panicking here. K is almost certainly scum.

639 is not surprising given what I've said earlier.
723 is me blatantly manipulating Black into a position where she won't bus if scum. Thus confirming partners. She's been anti bus so far so...
754 doesn't seem to be true for Black. Who was she "bussing and then trying to back off before I run

my

her partner over"? Her earliest push was K, which she backs off of. She was technically at least a third. (Aisa voted in 137 which is not caught in the VC). She backs off based on vibes when the wagon dies. There hasn't been a strong push at all from Black. She jumps on Bella nakedly in 260 to get off K. Then it's a naked vote on shaddowez in 512. Not exactly hard bussing partners. More like wagon shopping.

755 is only true if Black coached it as it would be abnormal for Skygazer.

758 is an interesting take. What position would you take if a beard and a lurky partner was pushed? Favor the beard? Discredit the player? Black definitely discredits the player (Dann) but implies a preference ProjEctRy live. ProjEctRy is doing more for scum than K regardless of if ProjEctRy is a beard or scum.

777 Black starts to crack and get paranoid she's my SR openly.

781 Black admits she won't bus, which is precisely what I want.

---- End Part 2----

801 Calls my conviction on K unnatural and wants me to interact with K more.

901 - There is an argument here that T3 is town. However, my theory is Black was wanting to dismantle both wagons. If T3 is town, camel and K are scum by PoE.

935 goes along with this theory. Black is expressing doubt on T3.

957 - Black shopping other wagons.

983 - Black and T3 jump on me together. Feels panicky on Black's part and an attempt to kill the T3 wagon.

1086 - Readwall is whack.

1094 Black is desperate to lim me and/or has no clue I am the jk.

That's the end of Black's posting.

I've detailed townreads on everyone but camel, T3 and K. I've detailed why.

Scum are in camel, K and T3. Please review.

[Titus]

While it's possible T3 is town, a doctor knows another player is town as there's no way scum kill T3.

[Afrayed Knott]

I have a lot to learn about this game....

[Skygazer]

While it's possible T3 is town, a doctor knows another player is town as there's no way scum kill T3.

i agree that flipping T3 is optimal because yeah that clears someone to the doctor if we're wrong, it'd be better to get that clear now than to wait (since waiting increases the chances of the doc dying)

rlly doubt we're wrong tho

[Skygazer]

so T3 is like by far the best possible elimination today

[Skygazer]

even if he's town (doubt it) his flip helps us

[Titus]

I have a lot to learn about this game....

So do I. It constantly changes and evolves.

ProjEctRy and K I hope you stick around.