Mini Normal 2322: Game Over

[Pavowski]

Kyouko, HPE, Hu Tao?

I stated it before but I am gonna be gobsmacked if scum!Kyo leads a relentless charge like that on Lap. She never wavered, even a little bit -- that's a hell of a gambit for scum.

Of course, me being surprised by a thing is hardly a reason to think it couldn't happen.

More likely Hu Tao, HPE, Geraint but Geraint's still basically a zero info slot

If I'm going to reconsider town!Dragon I need to reconsider scum!Purple, I was close to ruling that out

Can you explain why town!me implies scum!purple? I am like totally failing to see the rationale here. If you are town explaining this rationale might help me see your thought process.

Here:

I promise I'm not deliberately spamming the thread, but I hate wall posting. Between my last post and some notes I took at the end of d1 when I got home and the thread was locked have me really considering Purple/Dragon as two of the three scum (It would be 3 in a normal, right?). And given they know each other IRL...

scum!Purple / scum!Dragon works
town!Purple / scum!Dragon works
scum!Purple / town!Dragon doesn't work
town!Purple / town!Dragon could work but that means I have to find 3 scum in HPE, Kyouko, Joy, CW, Gera, Hu Tao. Possible? Yes. Likely? Feels like no.

Purple, what's your take on Dragon right now?

I posted this when I first started seriously considering you as scum and exploring the idea in the open. Looking at your interactions with Purple I came to the above. Unfortunately most of those combinations favored, and made sense in a context of, you being scum.

But 900, 863 and 867 read as flailing / throwing mud everywhere in search of a viable wagon

Dragon you seem to have gone right to to "Pav's reasons are bad therefore scum" without ever passing through "Pav's reasons are bad, therefore dumb town".

Here's the thing -- your play has been chaotic enough that it's been hard to read for me from game start. You've made some odd votes, sheeped FL almost without fail, and now that I'm professing some serious misgivings about you, wham, I'm one of your top scumreads. I don't think you OMGUS me like that as town.

You're the one I want today, baby, but we'll always have d1

Thing is you are the one omgusing

Also why are you trying to convince me I am scum?

I'm not, that would be silly, I was just responding to you because that's, y'know, conversational

Also I don't understand something - do you want to vote slots only based on how much info they give? Not based on how lilely to flip scum they are?

As much as I like to think I have a feeling for who's scummy here, and thus who's more likely to flip scum, I have to remember that we're at 10 players, with 3 scum, so no matter your POV, we are statistically more likely to hit town. With that in mind, yes, it makes sense to yeet in the higher-content slots

Also (and sorry for spamming), what made you reconsider and decide I could be town?

FL reminded me of a thing.


Meanwhile:

cases with quotes are for scum or catchups.

Purely off-topic here but this has so succinctly encapsulated why I hate posting this way, and now I feel dirty for this post.

[DragonEater70]

It's also the way Pav talks to me with like zero implications of where I'm headed, even when they're on the chopping block.

They're like on the short list for both being faded and vigged, probably almost more than anyone in this game considering the push back on CW. And I think that's telling.

Okay

I wanna let some other people respond before I say what I think

[Pavowski]

I promise I'm not deliberately spamming the thread, but I hate wall posting. Between my last post and some notes I took at the end of d1 when I got home and the thread was locked have me really considering Purple/Dragon as two of the three scum (It would be 3 in a normal, right?). And given they know each other IRL...

scum!Purple / scum!Dragon works
town!Purple / scum!Dragon works
scum!Purple / town!Dragon doesn't work
town!Purple / town!Dragon could work but that means I have to find 3 scum in HPE, Kyouko, Joy, CW, Gera, Hu Tao. Possible? Yes. Likely? Feels like no.

Purple, what's your take on Dragon right now?

I misread this earlier.

Are you basically implying the only worlds that work are worlds where I am scum? Then why even put Purple into the equation here? Why can't I be town and Purple scum FYPOV?

This feels forced.

Oh, hi, Dragon. Does my surprise pagetop up there explain this better?

[DragonEater70]

One sec

I posted this when I first started seriously considering you as scum and exploring the idea in the open. Looking at your interactions with Purple I came to the above. Unfortunately most of those combinations favored, and made sense in a context of, you being scum.

Explain?

[Pavowski]

Yeah sure, talking of 870

In the posts between you and Purple,
I could see that as s/s foolery in the thread
I could see it as scum!Dragon leaning on / manipulating town!Purple
I could *not* see it as scum!Purple leaning on / manipulating town!Dragon
I could see it as t/t jousting but then there's 3 scum in the remaining slots, which again, numbers make me somewhat skeptical of

[DragonEater70]

Yes, I understood that much

Why could you see it / couldn't you see it that way?

[Pavowski]

Because you're poking and prodding at Purple, trying to see what they'll do, and there's basically none of that in the other direction.

To use a Flavor term, the agenda only flows one way between you, and it never flows from Purple.

[DragonEater70]

Ah

Fine

That could be an actual thought process

UNVOTE: pav

[DragonEater70]

Do you wanna vote cw or should we annoy Flavor and go Gera/HPE instead?

[Pavowski]

Do you wanna vote cw or should we annoy Flavor and go Gera/HPE instead?

No to Gera, that's boring

CW I dunno, I still don't know if we hit scum there, and I say that fully cognizant of how bad a red flip on CW would look for me. I do think there are good things to be learned either way.

HPE I maybe feel a little better about flipping, I'm a little sus of her recent change of heart on me (felt a little too easy if you ask me) and there has certainly been some opportunistic play there outside of that as well

And I know you don't wanna vote HT so ....

What do you think of CW's analysis of HPE (it happened in the last few pages)?

[Pavowski]

Never mind that was Hu Tao, damn these H names

[Hu Tao]

Why is CW so hard to get?

Because scum and town both are defending. This means scum don’t want CW faded.

It implies that CW is scum, or town who is expected to help scum win.

I think that flip is best here.

After thinking it over I think you're right. If he's town which he might be, scum want him to vote in me/dragon tomorrow.

[Hu Tao]

I see CW-Hu Tao as slightly more likely than CW-Pav, but the fact I feel em both in addition to the way CW discredits, and the extreme manipulativeness potential I see from them, and the way this game started, I see CW as pretty likely to be scum.

They also pounced on Hu Tao for 'fishing' when they were hard pushing it earlier, and consistently claimed Vanilla.

Okay let's go cw then. And I think shoot pav.

[Hu Tao]

Hu Tao, can you talk about the PV/CW - Hu Tao/DragonEater dynamics to me? What are your thoughts on the 4 of you, not necessarily your read, but your thoughts on the 2 v 2 as a general thing.

I think that cw is probably town but will vote wrong tomorrow so he needs to go. Still a small chance he flips scum so better now then later. Pav seems to be the one who does soft defenses of cw so I think he could be the scum that wants cw alive for tomorrow.

In terms of Dragon and me. Could dragon ve pocketing me? Idk, I don't think so. Last time I played with dragon scum he was obvious and I called it day 1. I don't see that here. I think it's weird cw tries to push that me and dragon are a pair and his read seems very surface level which is why I think there is a chance cw flips scum.

[Hu Tao]

i just generally feel Pav's got a sense of 'if i gotta die, i gotta die, but im gonna fight trying' in a townie way, and not a scummy way.

I also saw that and it definitely gave me pause, but I feel this is more posturing about fighting than actually fighting? Like if he really had this attitude I'd expect him to push me / Hu Tao more and make sure that the "right" lim/kill happens after he dies, but instead he's like "oh okay cool you wanna kill me today? I believe in you town".

It's fake.

Thing is. Pav doesn't need to push us. Cw is doing it for him. So that's why it seems he has no need to fight it

[Hu Tao]

Never mind that was Hu Tao, damn these H names

I mentally got you and purple mixed up a few times too

[cw357]

Hu Tao, can you talk about the PV/CW - Hu Tao/DragonEater dynamics to me? What are your thoughts on the 4 of you, not necessarily your read, but your thoughts on the 2 v 2 as a general thing.

I think that cw is probably town but will vote wrong tomorrow so he needs to go. Still a small chance he flips scum so better now then later. Pav seems to be the one who does soft defenses of cw so I think he could be the scum that wants cw alive for tomorrow.

In terms of Dragon and me. Could dragon ve pocketing me? Idk, I don't think so. Last time I played with dragon scum he was obvious and I called it day 1. I don't see that here. I think it's weird cw tries to push that me and dragon are a pair and his read seems very surface level which is why I think there is a chance cw flips scum.

ur literally just parroting flavor to try and get me to go, after townreading me prior

When I flip green vig either hu tao or dragoneater
hpe is bad too, and if 2 of 3 of those are scum, it allows for miselim potential with one of hpe/pavowski

[DragonEater70]

Never mind that was Hu Tao, damn these H names

I hated that analysis

Maybe I'm biased because I hate everything cw posts, but like are they scumreading her for "tunneling"? Since when has "tunneling" been a scum-exclusive trait?

And calling 399 w/w with me is laughable.

Honestly I am not sure it can even be called analysis, it looks like cw just opens a person's ISO and finds reasons to scumread them, ignoring any context or reasons to TR them.

I agree with Flavor that this is probably scum acting that way intentionally. Or newbscum who doesn't know hoe to fake natural reads.

VOTE: cw

[DragonEater70]

Hu Tao, can you talk about the PV/CW - Hu Tao/DragonEater dynamics to me? What are your thoughts on the 4 of you, not necessarily your read, but your thoughts on the 2 v 2 as a general thing.

I think that cw is probably town but will vote wrong tomorrow so he needs to go. Still a small chance he flips scum so better now then later. Pav seems to be the one who does soft defenses of cw so I think he could be the scum that wants cw alive for tomorrow.

In terms of Dragon and me. Could dragon ve pocketing me? Idk, I don't think so. Last time I played with dragon scum he was obvious and I called it day 1. I don't see that here. I think it's weird cw tries to push that me and dragon are a pair and his read seems very surface level which is why I think there is a chance cw flips scum.

I'm gonna locktown Hu Tao

So that makes 4 I'm never voting - Purple, Flavor, Hu Tao and myself.

[DragonEater70]

i just generally feel Pav's got a sense of 'if i gotta die, i gotta die, but im gonna fight trying' in a townie way, and not a scummy way.

I also saw that and it definitely gave me pause, but I feel this is more posturing about fighting than actually fighting? Like if he really had this attitude I'd expect him to push me / Hu Tao more and make sure that the "right" lim/kill happens after he dies, but instead he's like "oh okay cool you wanna kill me today? I believe in you town".

It's fake.

Thing is. Pav doesn't need to push us. Cw is doing it for him. So that's why it seems he has no need to fight it

You're saying this from a scum!Pav / town!cw perpective?

[cw357]

Never mind that was Hu Tao, damn these H names

I hated that analysis

Maybe I'm biased because I hate everything cw posts, but like are they scumreading her for "tunneling"? Since when has "tunneling" been a scum-exclusive trait?

And calling 399 w/w with me is laughable.

Honestly I am not sure it can even be called analysis, it looks like cw just opens a person's ISO and finds reasons to scumread them, ignoring any context or reasons to TR them.

I agree with Flavor that this is probably scum acting that way intentionally. Or newbscum who doesn't know hoe to fake natural reads.

VOTE: cw

i have townreads ur not one of them

Hu Tao, can you talk about the PV/CW - Hu Tao/DragonEater dynamics to me? What are your thoughts on the 4 of you, not necessarily your read, but your thoughts on the 2 v 2 as a general thing.

I think that cw is probably town but will vote wrong tomorrow so he needs to go. Still a small chance he flips scum so better now then later. Pav seems to be the one who does soft defenses of cw so I think he could be the scum that wants cw alive for tomorrow.

In terms of Dragon and me. Could dragon ve pocketing me? Idk, I don't think so. Last time I played with dragon scum he was obvious and I called it day 1. I don't see that here. I think it's weird cw tries to push that me and dragon are a pair and his read seems very surface level which is why I think there is a chance cw flips scum.

I'm gonna locktown Hu Tao

So that makes 4 I'm never voting - Purple, Flavor, Hu Tao and myself.

w/w

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I’m probably leaning Pavowski, CW, or Kyouko today.

I don't think cw is scum here

[cw357]

VOTE: cw357
I'm not changing this vote rest of d2, you all can either wise up and vote hu tao or dragon or I'll get elimed, in which case doesn't make a difference what I vote

[DragonEater70]

Flavor

I know me and Hu Tao are powerwolfing right now with how we hard TR each other and push the same people, but you gotta trust in the power of the green powerwolf team.

So like, don't shoot us, please and thank you

Pedit: yay Kyouko is back

Kyouko how much have you read of toDay?

[DragonEater70]

VOTE: cw357
I'm not changing this vote rest of d2, you all can either wise up and vote hu tao or dragon or I'll get elimed, in which case doesn't make a difference what I vote

Quit throwing