Mini 2321: Classic Commercials (Postgame)

[Thomith]

It's certain one of the pr is scum imo. We should be voting there.

Me: Hu Tao is genuinely trying to solve
Hu Tao: makes this post
Me:

Thom jailkept Celebloki and Cele himself said he was blocked even before Thom claimed, i believe.
I think this rather strongly indicates that both are town.

There is a world where celeb is scum PR and thats how he knew he was RBed.

[Thomith]

I think he should have claimed it earlier, now it does look opportunistic. I recently rolled as 1-shot bulletproof town so i know this claim will always get some suspiction. I am inclined to believe it for now.

[Thomith]

Fucking accidental posting. Ignore that.

[Thomith]

It's certain one of the pr is scum imo. We should be voting there.

If you are correct, that means there are 2 in the VT claims, which makes it the same odds either way?

[Celebloki]

If you believe Town has a Neap, RC, and JK though, does also having a 1-shot BP make sense for town? If anything he's now setup for the case that if I check him and get a negative, he's at least not lied. Any goons that claimed VT are now sweating that I can catch them in a lie.

[Celebloki]

Or rather, it's not that he didn't lie, but I can't catch his claim out.

[Thomith]

I'll be honest, my gut when celeb claimed RBed N1 pinged that i thought he was town, which is why I tried to kind of soft claim with how hard i believed him when he was RBed.

I think I'm inclined to believe him here for now, even despite the fact I feel a bit off about RC/Neap existing together.

[Thomith]

okay, gonna sleep.

roden/hu tao/naerys

bingle/elements/dunnstral

are my two splits. mix and match one maybe, but that's where im at.

If Roden is scum I can maybe see the first one because of subtle defending like 1958
I'm still struggling to get over my Hu Tao townread though hm.

[Roden]

Because I thought he softed an innocent. And both of your claims check out. Unless you're scum together idk

Rigt, makes sense.

@Roden why did you say what you did about "wanting to try something different" when TRing Hu Tao?

Because I scum read Hu Tao almost every game and I thought she looked townier after Gob's town flip.

[Thomith]

If you believe Town has a Neap, RC, and JK though, does also having a 1-shot BP make sense for town? If anything he's now setup for the case that if I check him and get a negative, he's at least not lied. Any goons that claimed VT are now sweating that I can catch them in a lie.

Would you be willing to fade Naerys today?

[Roden]

It's gonna be dumb if I get voted out for defending my town reads

[Roden]

Why are we not flipping Bingle or Elements

[Thomith]

If the Roden/Naerys/Hu Tao solve is real, I'm wondering if there's a world where Roden/Hu Tao are trying to distance now, to try and set Hu Tao up to deep wolf.
Kinda wanna relook at the interactions throughout the game to see if these interactions are new.

[Thomith]

Why are we not flipping Bingle or Elements

I'm still on Elements for now I'm just tinfoiling right now in case we're wrong and go to ELo tbh.
Wanna go through the options.

[Naerys]

It's certain one of the pr is scum imo. We should be voting there.

Me: Hu Tao is genuinely trying to solve
Hu Tao: makes this post
Me:

Thom jailkept Celebloki and Cele himself said he was blocked even before Thom claimed, i believe.
I think this rather strongly indicates that both are town.

There is a world where celeb is scum PR and thats how he knew he was RBed.

role cop+jk feels like not enough for town tho
atleast one of neap/bulletproof claim is true i think

[Roden]

I feel like it's obvious that I'm not scum here and that I'm being honest about my claim

I've been pushing Celeb as scum for awhile, if I were actually scum pushing a town PR and Hu Tao made it clear that she thought someone softed an inno on her, then I was already set up to fake claim a PR equivalent to Neap so I could counter claim Celeb

What's the use in claiming BP when I had the trajectory to feasibly counter claim Celeb and get him voted out without having to use a NK to get rid of him

[Roden]

If FL wasnt 10000% town i would sus him for suspecting claimed bulletproof

Why? Bp is an incredibly convenient claim AFTER a ev dies. No one can guilty him, there’s no reason he would ever die at night and he didn’t share that he was a potential rc inno when the rc could have, yknow, made a bulletproof IC.

Rc not ev.

???

What

Rolecop wouldn't make me conftown, it would just confirm that I was telling the truth about being BP if I claimed it early

[Thomith]

WIthout a Vig 1SBP seems weird for scum to have for a Simple though imo.

[Roden]

BP literally isn't supposed to claim early, their primary use is to draw the NK and give other town PRs an extra night to act

[Roden]

WIthout a Vig 1SBP seems weird for scum to have for a Simple though imo.

How so?

[Naerys]

BP literally isn't supposed to claim early, their primary use is to draw the NK and give other town PRs an extra night to act

Or to force scum to try to lim the bulletproof. I did use it that way.

[Thomith]

WIthout a Vig 1SBP seems weird for scum to have for a Simple though imo.

How so?

"You are playing a Simple Normal game. These games are designed to provide a newbie-friendly and traditional mafia experience, with little focus on setup speculation."
I feel like Scum 1SBP without a Vig feels weird because of that? It's technically simple sure, but I feel it opens scum up to the setup spec of "there must be a vig"

[Celebloki]

I would agree that why add a scum 1-shot BP if town has no way to take a shot at the scum 1-shot BP. That said, in this setup, an RC finding a BP is essentially a town clear.

[Flavor Leaf]

Right now, I either think all 4 pr’s are town, or Roden is scum PR, not BP.

[Celebloki]

Yeah, to clarify my point, I'm agreeing that the 1-shot BP is a convenient claim that is likely a lie. I suspect he is the liar in the PR claims and doubt town has all 4 of the claimed PRs as they stand.

For the setup theorist nerds, what is the balance likelihood that Thom could be a Scum JK/RB?