Open 895 - 09:12 PM - Postgame

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Sup nerds and Gamma and gob and maybe Cook

we haven't played together but 3d20 was a lot of fun

VOTE: Black

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Honestly limming me here might be the most optimal play

Because I am town, and if the mafia knew my capabilities they would know I win here if left alive for more than 1 day as town. So mafia should kill me tonight.

Therefore the most optimal thing for me to do is die and give info on my way out, since I can give more info being the mislim than I can being NK'd.

What do you all think?

Is anyone in the playerlist familiar with you as town? You've rolled scum in like every completed game on site iirc - maybe one town game?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Honestly limming me here might be the most optimal play

Because I am town, and if the mafia knew my capabilities they would know I win here if left alive for more than 1 day as town. So mafia should kill me tonight.

Therefore the most optimal thing for me to do is die and give info on my way out, since I can give more info being the mislim than I can being NK'd.

What do you all think?

I think it's an open setup and you're full of shit.

What does it being an open setup have to do with gob's post?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I guess speaking of it being an open setup, I'm not sure if everyone knows we just finished this setup and won in 2 Days, half of this playerlist was in that game, also modded by Alianna. I think it was mentioned in her /in to mod in open queue.

Anyways, we hypoclaimed as 2/4/8/10 roles on the clock due to Mafia Rolecop being repeated at 3/9, and due to being able to disguise some of the 1/5/7/11 claims as 2/4/8/10. I think in hindsight that it worked out well but it was mainly because we killed the Goon on D1 so we had 2 clears by the morning of D2.

It pretty quickly became apparent to me as VT with less info than scum, who one of the PRs was and fortunately due to the hypoclaims we were in a strong spot assuming I had identified the Vanilla Cop/Rolecop correctly. Turned out that I had, but I think in most cases the hypoclaiming is going to lead to the PRs being easier to find. Maybe if we D1 scum again it makes sense to hypoclaim again because of the possibility of POEing the last scum by way of innos, but short of killing scum D1 I don't think it's a good idea.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Technically scum!Gamma conceded N2 because she was mechanically guiltied in the morning

[ssbm_Kyouko]

You say

"if the mafia knew my capabilities"

- so if nobody knows your towngame as I suspect is the case, what is your goal in bringing this up in the first place?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hasn't black like legit not posted yet?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Smh

[ssbm_Kyouko]

gob is too much of a loose cannon for me to gauge accurately

currently i'd vote him on policy

Policy in a 9p? Seems sus
VOTE: Cook

Gob feels very confident here, hard to imagine scum plays like this

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Elements seems to get limmed Day 1 often.

Have you seen this happen? I don't remember that being the case when I was meta diving them last game and they seemed easy to read. How involved were you in the last run of this setup? I remember Adorable was making a lot of the posts, were you keeping up as much?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@Kyouko

you read a bunch of my games, do I calm down when it's not day 1?

I read your ISO in a bunch of your games and did not pay too much attention to the transition between D1 and D2/onward because the mod was not included - generally though the vote hopping is NAI and I must assume if you kept it up into D2 you'd get limmed for it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

i don't know what to make of this elements

i think she'll be easier to read later on

gob is too much of a loose cannon for me to gauge accurately

currently i'd vote him on policy

Policy in a 9p? Seems sus
VOTE: Cook

you're very flippant right now

i think this is weak reasoning though

I don't want to see a policy lim from you or from Clap - I'm not against them on principle, but in a 9p game that's just wasteful. I think Larges are the place for policy and even then it should only be the last resort.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I guess speaking of it being an open setup, I'm not sure if everyone knows we just finished this setup and won in 2 Days, half of this playerlist was in that game, also modded by Alianna. I think it was mentioned in her /in to mod in open queue.

Anyways, we hypoclaimed as 2/4/8/10 roles on the clock due to Mafia Rolecop being repeated at 3/9, and due to being able to disguise some of the 1/5/7/11 claims as 2/4/8/10. I think in hindsight that it worked out well but it was mainly because we killed the Goon on D1 so we had 2 clears by the morning of D2.

It pretty quickly became apparent to me as VT with less info than scum, who one of the PRs was and fortunately due to the hypoclaims we were in a strong spot assuming I had identified the Vanilla Cop/Rolecop correctly. Turned out that I had, but I think in most cases the hypoclaiming is going to lead to the PRs being easier to find. Maybe if we D1 scum again it makes sense to hypoclaim again because of the possibility of POEing the last scum by way of innos, but short of killing scum D1 I don't think it's a good idea.

Any thoughts on this especially from those that were in the previous game and experienced the hypoclaims playing out? Doc & Drew (Gamma), gob, Elements, Mizuki? Technically shaddowes too but he replaced out of that game early on

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Everyone makes a

hypo

thetical claim as to what their action/target/result is - allowing the real PRs to claim their actions/results within the rest of the hypoclaims to be used post-flip.

We were all supposed to claim as though we were one of the roles on 2/4/8/10 on the clock because they are adjacent to the 2 instances of Mafia Rolecop on 3 and 9. If we had an actual PR that was on 1/5/7/11, they were supposed to claim as though they were 2/4/8/10. For example a Vanilla Cop on 1 could have claimed a Rolecop result that corresponds to the Vanilla cop result they actually got. As it turned out we had the actual Roleblocker (Elements) on 8 claim as though they were a Jailkeeper on 5 which was surprising but it worked out just the same.

In theory it seemed like a good plan and it did work in that game because we hit scum D1 and ended up with 4 clears on D2 off of night actions, but I think in practice that more often than not it will lead to POEing/outing the real PRs.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I mean, I think you have a point in the PR's being easier to find, but also, the hypoclaims happen D2. The perfect scum game here is a 3-day game, and I think max is like 5? So I don't think the PR's being easier to find on D2 is really that much of a disaster. They ended up full-claiming on D2 last game anyways.

Feels worth considering maybe.
VT lim>VT NK leaves 5:2 T:S, and 3:2 vanilla:PR within town on D2, if PRs are found on D2 they'll really only ever be NKed and not eliminated (as long as they aren't speedwagoned).
So D3 you would in worst case be at 3:2 ELO with a flipped PRs result that is not a clear, maybe sometimes it's a clear like if a Rolecop finds a doctor, but keep in mind that last game we killed the Goon D1 so when the Roleblocker and Rolecop claimed their actions we had 4 clears. If we hadn't killed a Goon on D1 both of those results would be meaningless.

I don't think hypoclaiming D2 is right unless we are very careful to claim something that makes sense with our reads (which I was not, and to be fair that was my mistake). Even then I'm not sure, I don't think it works out if we haven't hit scum on D1.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I mean, I think you have a point in the PR's being easier to find, but also, the hypoclaims happen D2. The perfect scum game here is a 3-day game, and I think max is like 5? So I don't think the PR's being easier to find on D2 is really that much of a disaster. They ended up full-claiming on D2 last game anyways.

Feels worth considering maybe.
VT lim>VT NK leaves 5:2 T:S, and 3:2 vanilla:PR within town on D2, if PRs are found on D2 they'll really only ever be NKed and not eliminated (as long as they aren't speedwagoned).
So D3 you would in worst case be at 3:2 ELO with a flipped PRs result that is not a clear, maybe sometimes it's a clear like if a Rolecop finds a doctor, but keep in mind that last game we killed the Goon D1 so when the Roleblocker and Rolecop claimed their actions we had 4 clears. If we hadn't killed a Goon on D1 both of those results would be meaningless.

I don't think hypoclaiming D2 is right unless we are very careful to claim something that makes sense with our reads (which I was not, and to be fair that was my mistake). Even then I'm not sure, I don't think it works out if we haven't hit scum on D1.

Eh, fair enough. When I suggested it last game it was mostly as an off-the-cuff idea rather than something I had brainstormed zealously. I'm not a mechanical powerhouse by any means.

I get bad vibes about Claptastik's posting so far

VOTE: Claptastik

What about Clap's posting stands out? I feel like very little is standing out this game, except gob. All I can remember about Clap and Cook is them briefly talking about policy

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Wait so Mizuki did you not know Cook was not hammered?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

UNVOTE:

[ssbm_Kyouko]

ssbm/black is my strongest pairing right now but i'm willing to be wrong there

think i'd sort like
{ssbm_kyouko, black}
{elements, gob}
{claptastik} is null for lack of activity
{mizuki}
{shaddowez, doc and drew}

Is this traditionally ordered, like in tiers of town down to scum?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Dont think it makes sense for scum!gob to test cook like that unless the scumteam is exactly {gob,cook}, but if that's the case I don't think this play can ever work in the long haul

Cook I believe she could have thought she was dead because Mizuki's vote change was in a wall.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So Cook is probably town

VOTE: Mizuki

I mean that is kind of a weird post I will say. But do you really think mafia is going to be thinking about that at (what was perceived) EoD/Hammer? I feel like they would be more concerned about their positioning and the positioning of their partner

Well, since I am basically confirmed town and so is Cook

Cook maybe, but even that

could

have been theatre. Why would you be confirmed?

Yea im not confirmed. I sorta thought i was but im not from a 3rd party view.

Mizuki should have known it wasn't a hammer though - her vote is the one that had moved off of Cook and the VC was right there above the 2 votes within like 5 posts

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Black what exactly do you find wrong with my reaction? Kyouko and I had a brief discussion last game on why Town lost previous runs of this setup, which involved PR's getting quickhammered/limmed after claim, which was my specific objection to the (perceived) gob quickhammer.

This was the next thing I was going to post as a reminder - not to quick hammer and not to hammer any un-CCed PR claims. In the games of this setup that scum won a lot like that had happened.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Like I got offline and was thinking about the game and remembered about that as well. It's felt like I don't need to go over everything in as much detail this time because half of us just played this setup together

[ssbm_Kyouko]

shaddowez i think has been a little under the radar.

Still 7 days to go, same thing happened in last game and he was town

[ssbm_Kyouko]

ssbm/black is my strongest pairing right now but i'm willing to be wrong there

think i'd sort like
{ssbm_kyouko, black}
{elements, gob}
{claptastik} is null for lack of activity
{mizuki}
{shaddowez, doc and drew}

I'm close to this. Biggest difference is ssbm. Why town?

She talks more about past games than this one.

VOTE: Ssbm

Is this why you're voting me?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Kyouko ignoring the SR on her.

Noted

I think you're town unless it's exactly you and Cook, and as town I think you'll find me on your own. If you want to talk about something I'm all ears but you said you're not getting town vibes and that my posts are long and complicated.

Long and complicated posts are my shtick and you'd know that if you'd paid attention in the last game. You'll find the vibes eventually I think, but maybe I'm equating you too much with Transcend. Your play reminds me of his and you're both from TOS.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

ssbm/black is my strongest pairing right now but i'm willing to be wrong there

think i'd sort like
{ssbm_kyouko, black}
{elements, gob}
{claptastik} is null for lack of activity
{mizuki}
{shaddowez, doc and drew}

Is this traditionally ordered, like in tiers of town down to scum?

nope, it's reverse ordered

gob can be town though

Could you take me through some of these reads then? Pretty sure you're town here from the fake hammer, but a lot of this doesn't make sense.

Elements I seem to remember you stating was a soul read; i have no idea why you read me as scum. Black i can see because she E-1ed you after gob claimed he would hammer any E-1s but is that the only reason or is there more to it?

Gob is one read that does make sense to me (after you moved him to town), as does claptastik, but speaking of null for lack of activity, why is shaddowez in your top town considering his activity?

Is the Mizuki read due to her reaction to your fake hammer or is there more to that too? And what about Doc and Drew? I don't remember you talking with/about them and they're literally not in your ISO at all, except where you say they're town. Looking at their ISO with yours you three haven't interacted at all.

Also happy scumday

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Could you take me through some of these reads then?

Can take me through all of them if you want but I just don't understand like more than half of this list and that's pretty not good

[ssbm_Kyouko]

No way is Cook scum unless gob is also scum imo. If it weren't for the fake hammer I would not believe they were real. There are some there that make absolutely no sense and part of the reason I'm questioning them is to see if I'm missing the sense, and if not, to bring Cook to her senses because putting shaddowez into the highest town tier is actual nonsense. Here, let me quote shaddowez'

whole ISO

:

VOTE: Gob

Technically V/LA, will be back Monday

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Maybe I have played with Cook before because an upside down reads list sounds vaguely familiar

[ssbm_Kyouko]

No way is Cook scum unless gob is also scum imo.

I don't understand this. Why couldn't Cook be scum here that realized she wasn't hammered and played it off like she was? Why is she only scum if gob is scum?

I don't believe she realized she wasn't hammered, her reaction seems very real. It could have been pre-planned to

appear

real, and if so I'm fooled, but it would be pretty dumb of scumteam!{gob,Cook} to make this play, even if it is convincing now it falls apart later.

I guess it's conceivable that Cook can be scum with you since you set up the fake E-1 but I think you didn't know it was a fake E-1. I say she's only scum if gob is scum because if her reaction is faked it was planned ahead, and the only ones who she could plan it ahead with were you and gob. Initially I thought it could only have been gob.

If it is scum!gob, it only makes sense if he and Cook have planned this ahead of time as buddies, and even then it's incredibly risky. What happens if gob and Cook are still alive in 5p ELO as scum? Imo the paranoia really sinks in at this point and if one of them flips, the other is likely to be highly suspected and could possibly be guiltied overNight depending on the PRs. This just doesn't make sense.

If gob is scum and Cook is town, why does he fake hammer her here? It just gives her the opportunity to have a town reaction and clears her. What's the scum motivation there? Doesn't make sense, therefore if gob is scum, it's only with Cook. Cook could be scum with you here though, but again, I think Cook's reaction is real.

Didn't get back to this until today and have to catch up, but I love that my entire ISO of 1 post so far is being used for something.

it will make sense when you catch up

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: clap

I can't throw stones about post count/engagement, but the posts he has don't seem like he's trying to find information. 190 and 191 are super interesting, considering Cook clarifies in 200 that the order was reversed. In 189 he back off his Elements read, but completely ignores the question of limming him.

200 comes after 190/191 though? I also ignored gob when he became interested in limming me.

Cook, Gob are town here. Everyone else feels null or south of it, and I think my TRs are both scumreading me.
I feel like so many votes here are good I don't know where to go.
VOTE: Mizuki

Would like an answer on this to start

@Mizuki

What about Clap's posting stands out? I feel like very little is standing out this game, except gob. All I can remember about Clap and Cook is them briefly talking about policy

[ssbm_Kyouko]

ssbm/black is my strongest pairing right now but i'm willing to be wrong there

think i'd sort like
{ssbm_kyouko, black}
{elements, gob}
{claptastik} is null for lack of activity
{mizuki}
{shaddowez, doc and drew}

I'm close to this. Biggest difference is ssbm. Why town?

She talks more about past games than this one.

VOTE: Ssbm

Is this why you're voting me?

Yes, obviously. You talk old games and setup spec. I don't see you trying to sort people at all.

Well specifically I've been talking about one game that shared half this playerlist and shares the setup and ended like a week ago so I would say it's relevant. I brought it up because the thread was dying out, and because I remembered that like half the playerlist was also not there for the last game and hasn't seen all the mech spec yet. I was hoping to drum up some more activity and also make previous players aware that hypoclaiming is probably not the way unless we hit scum D1.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Would like an answer on this to start

@Mizuki

What about Clap's posting stands out? I feel like very little is standing out this game, except gob. All I can remember about Clap and Cook is them briefly talking about policy

I pointed out post 100, which was the post that pinged me specifically. It stuck out to me as someone who had zero interest in solving Elements alignment

Okay, I can see this now. Felt like the game was just dragging at that time.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

200 comes after 190/191 though?

I also ignored gob when he became interested in limming me.

True, but if Cook is telling the truth about it being reversed, Clap's agreement almost seems appeasy. In the post itself Cook says she's paring you and black which are in the top tier, so to "agree" with it means Clap didn't actually pay attention.

That's assuming a "pairing" is the scumteam though, and not just a group of 2. I had to ask because it's really confusing with it being upside down. Clap agrees with the order as he read it so I don't see what's scummy about that, my point is that Cook didn't clarify it was upside down until 200 so how can Clap misinterpreting it in 190/191 be scummy if 200 hasn't happened yet?

See the bolded as well - I also ignored gob. Does that make me scum?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think gob has jumped to my top scumread except whoever I'm voting atm

Pero like why?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think gob has jumped to my top scumread except whoever I'm voting atm

VOTE: D&D
I feel like these two haven't had much discourse around them

This feels like a weird progression

246 was clearly a reference to 242

Oh
Disregard my last

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Are you really calling your own posts townie?

Yes.

How exactly?

My problems with her were that she was talking about old games and setup spec. Check her ISO - at 197 she started a series of posts which were about the players in this game. I'm concerned that she may have done that

because

I made those observations, but for now, I'm looking elsewhere.

What do you think of my reads so far (other than yourself)?

I feel like the thread was dying out before I brought up the mechanics from the last run. I couldn't really get a read on anyone, nothing felt substantive, and I thought the fresh topic might generate some more readable material

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I do enjoy a three way dance, if anything this will get me more into the game at least lol.

Yeah, like my scum read did!

[ssbm_Kyouko]

No bloops

Bloop

- Alianna

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I felt called out by i think it was kyouko. As a person.

What does this mean? Are you talking about when I compared you to Transcend?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I don't like Kyouko's long posts. I feel like they are mostly fluff and commenting on unimportant stuff but in an obtuse manner.

She does this normally, but this game in particular they seem to be more obtuse. So I find that scummy and I'm gonna work to lim her.

I also am not a huge fan of how Elements progressed on me, but actually that probably solidifys Elements as town even more. The progression rubbed me the wrong way, but taking away those bad vibes it was a towny reaction. Because Elements is clearly not caring about whoever TR'd her, and not caring about necessarily having a solid reason for the vote.

You also seem quite easy to talk to. Everything seems good so far. If you're wolfing, I will enjoy playing with you in the future since your tone and logic is towny.

Doc and Drew I got a few town pings from them. Nothing substantial though.

Black I can't remember anything off the top of my head. So I would be down to lim Black today.

Shaddowez. Down to lim today potentially, but not where I want to look right now because Shaddowez is preparing to engage more.

Mizuki. Definitely feels weird and potentially scummy, but also like mislim bait. Not in the sense they're LHF moreso just the gamestate. Would still lim this Day 1.

ssbm_Kyouko. Where I mainly want to go. The long posts and stuff just feels like it's going nowhere.

I'm not sure how you can read my posting as obtuse, both in general and in this game. Could you show what you mean?

What do you mean about Mizuki being mislim bait with regards to the gamestate? Do you mean her reaction to the fake hammer?

Side note for everyone else, I'm pretty sure gob is towntelling in this post as well, so it's even less likely gob and Cook planned the fake hammer. Keeping the towntell to myself, before anyone asks

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Idk what you're trying to pull, but if you just quote one thing and say "wow thats a really really really weak reason" yea it looks weak when you frame it like that.

So now I have to consider you could be powerwolfing. Probably me wishful thinking thoever.

but seriously. I read all his posts and think he's out of the lim group for Day 1. Why you acting like I committed a crime?

Did you notice shaddowes didn't call me out for like the same thing? Something you even called me out for (ignoring your scumread on me)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Saying

you have hard time sinking your teeth in the game

is a little scummy to me.

Also can you tell im in a bad mood?

What do you call post 100 if not a push? You're actively giving a reason as to why you want an Elements elimination there, and again, it seems like you were pushing for it with zero actual interest in figuring out her actual alignment.

100 is a point on mafia theory in response to 99. Seems obvious to me in context.

And 99 was in response to 98, which was in turn a response to 97 which was about...Elements. gob's post there were a direct follow-up to your vote and posts against Elements. Indirectly or not, you were pushing there.

Mizuki. Definitely feels weird and potentially scummy, but also like mislim bait. Not in the sense they're LHF moreso just the gamestate. Would still lim this Day 1.

FWIW I agree I've been weird so far but mostly I just haven't found a place to get my foot in the door. In the early stages of the game I mostly read on tone and everyone's sounded fine to me so far, not much has pinged me in a way that I can convince myself to actively push, and I don't really want to push anything my heart isn't in, and there isn't much that I feel like engaging with.

Claptastik is really the only thing so far.

These are the same thing, Mizuki is just using more words to say it. I think we've all been feeling this way to some extent as well so I don't think it really makes sense to SR anyone for this when it's just how the game has been toDay.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: kyouko

After looking over things I think this is probably the most likely to flip scum

Outside of her mech talk and associative argument with gob/cook, there isn't much substance here. I think it's really easy for scum to just rely on discussing mech and wild theories like 211 and 221. I just don't think this read makes a lot of sense. Cook and gob can be scum individually without the other being scum and the fact that kyouko honed in on this kinda seems like busy work to me. It makes me think she knows they're town

Definitely shady you omitted the context of 211 and 221, kinda makes me think you forgot what it was and were looking to divert gob's attention. I'm guessing you opened my ISO and picked something you could latch on to out of it, and this is the first thing you found

With context (see quotes below), you first ask me how sure I am about town!Cook in 210 after I laid out the many problems with Cook's readslist (@Cook, still want an update on that). In 211 I'm answering your question concisely, because I am sure of it after reading the fake hammer situation, with the caveat that it could have been faked if Cook and gob are partnered, but

that is very unlikely

. I think 213 just doesn't want town to find each other here, and 221 is just my response to your attempt to break those TRs down. I think you're getting worried because a lot of people are coming around to Cook and gob being town. 221 is not a wild theory, I just laid out the possible configurations and explained how I got to the conclusion in 211.

I was willing to accept you just weren't ready to buy that Cook couldn't have faked her reaction on the fly, but I think it's more than that. You're worried the possible mislims are closing around you too early since Cook is almost certainly cleared from that, and all without PR claims.

VOTE: Black

Spoiler: quotes

ssbm/black is my strongest pairing right now but i'm willing to be wrong there

think i'd sort like
{ssbm_kyouko, black}
{elements, gob}
{claptastik} is null for lack of activity
{mizuki}
{shaddowez, doc and drew}

Is this traditionally ordered, like in tiers of town down to scum?

nope, it's reverse ordered

gob can be town though

Could you take me through some of these reads then? Pretty sure you're town here from the fake hammer, but a lot of this doesn't make sense.

Elements I seem to remember you stating was a soul read; i have no idea why you read me as scum. Black i can see because she E-1ed you after gob claimed he would hammer any E-1s but is that the only reason or is there more to it?

Gob is one read that does make sense to me (after you moved him to town), as does claptastik, but speaking of null for lack of activity, why is shaddowez in your top town considering his activity?

Is the Mizuki read due to her reaction to your fake hammer or is there more to that too? And what about Doc and Drew? I don't remember you talking with/about them and they're literally not in your ISO at all, except where you say they're town. Looking at their ISO with yours you three haven't interacted at all.

Also happy scumday

How sure are you about town!Cook? It feels like you're questioning the reads in a way that suggests you don't believe they are real

No way is Cook scum unless gob is also scum imo.

I don't understand this. Why couldn't Cook be scum here that realized she wasn't hammered and played it off like she was? Why is she only scum if gob is scum?

I don't believe she realized she wasn't hammered, her reaction seems very real. It could have been pre-planned to

appear

real, and if so I'm fooled, but it would be pretty dumb of scumteam!{gob,Cook} to make this play, even if it is convincing now it falls apart later.

I guess it's conceivable that Cook can be scum with you since you set up the fake E-1 but I think you didn't know it was a fake E-1. I say she's only scum if gob is scum because if her reaction is faked it was planned ahead, and the only ones who she could plan it ahead with were you and gob. Initially I thought it could only have been gob.

If it is scum!gob, it only makes sense if he and Cook have planned this ahead of time as buddies, and even then it's incredibly risky. What happens if gob and Cook are still alive in 5p ELO as scum? Imo the paranoia really sinks in at this point and if one of them flips, the other is likely to be highly suspected and could possibly be guiltied overNight depending on the PRs. This just doesn't make sense.

If gob is scum and Cook is town, why does he fake hammer her here? It just gives her the opportunity to have a town reaction and clears her. What's the scum motivation there? Doesn't make sense, therefore if gob is scum, it's only with Cook. Cook could be scum with you here though, but again, I think Cook's reaction is real.

Didn't get back to this until today and have to catch up, but I love that my entire ISO of 1 post so far is being used for something.

it will make sense when you catch up

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Kyouko do you not like either of the current wagons?

I don't like the Clap wagon, and I don't mind the D&D wagon. Gamma hasn't really posted much and I'm going to have an easier time reading her than Drew.

What are your reads like? I feel like last game it was possible to follow what you were thinking, and here you're back to your usual D1 self voting just about everywhere.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

We're not doing the hydra sorry guys. I think Mizuki is a valid option

Out of everyone, why them?

VOTE: kyouko

After looking over things I think this is probably the most likely to flip scum

Outside of her mech talk and associative argument with gob/cook, there isn't much substance here. I think it's really easy for scum to just rely on discussing mech and wild theories like 211 and 221. I just don't think this read makes a lot of sense. Cook and gob can be scum individually without the other being scum and the fact that kyouko honed in on this kinda seems like busy work to me. It makes me think she knows they're town

Definitely shady you omitted the context of 211 and 221, kinda makes me think you forgot what it was and were looking to divert gob's attention. I'm guessing you opened my ISO and picked something you could latch on to out of it, and this is the first thing you found

With context (see quotes below), you first ask me how sure I am about town!Cook in 210 after I laid out the many problems with Cook's readslist (@Cook, still want an update on that). In 211 I'm answering your question concisely, because I am sure of it after reading the fake hammer situation, with the caveat that it could have been faked if Cook and gob are partnered, but

that is very unlikely

. I think 213 just doesn't want town to find each other here, and 221 is just my response to your attempt to break those TRs down. I think you're getting worried because a lot of people are coming around to Cook and gob being town. 221 is not a wild theory, I just laid out the possible configurations and explained how I got to the conclusion in 211.

I was willing to accept you just weren't ready to buy that Cook couldn't have faked her reaction on the fly, but I think it's more than that. You're worried the possible mislims are closing around you too early since Cook is almost certainly cleared from that, and all without PR claims.

VOTE: Black

Spoiler: quotes

ssbm/black is my strongest pairing right now but i'm willing to be wrong there

think i'd sort like
{ssbm_kyouko, black}
{elements, gob}
{claptastik} is null for lack of activity
{mizuki}
{shaddowez, doc and drew}

Is this traditionally ordered, like in tiers of town down to scum?

nope, it's reverse ordered

gob can be town though

Could you take me through some of these reads then? Pretty sure you're town here from the fake hammer, but a lot of this doesn't make sense.

Elements I seem to remember you stating was a soul read; i have no idea why you read me as scum. Black i can see because she E-1ed you after gob claimed he would hammer any E-1s but is that the only reason or is there more to it?

Gob is one read that does make sense to me (after you moved him to town), as does claptastik, but speaking of null for lack of activity, why is shaddowez in your top town considering his activity?

Is the Mizuki read due to her reaction to your fake hammer or is there more to that too? And what about Doc and Drew? I don't remember you talking with/about them and they're literally not in your ISO at all, except where you say they're town. Looking at their ISO with yours you three haven't interacted at all.

Also happy scumday

How sure are you about town!Cook? It feels like you're questioning the reads in a way that suggests you don't believe they are real

No way is Cook scum unless gob is also scum imo.

I don't understand this. Why couldn't Cook be scum here that realized she wasn't hammered and played it off like she was? Why is she only scum if gob is scum?

I don't believe she realized she wasn't hammered, her reaction seems very real. It could have been pre-planned to

appear

real, and if so I'm fooled, but it would be pretty dumb of scumteam!{gob,Cook} to make this play, even if it is convincing now it falls apart later.

I guess it's conceivable that Cook can be scum with you since you set up the fake E-1 but I think you didn't know it was a fake E-1. I say she's only scum if gob is scum because if her reaction is faked it was planned ahead, and the only ones who she could plan it ahead with were you and gob. Initially I thought it could only have been gob.

If it is scum!gob, it only makes sense if he and Cook have planned this ahead of time as buddies, and even then it's incredibly risky. What happens if gob and Cook are still alive in 5p ELO as scum? Imo the paranoia really sinks in at this point and if one of them flips, the other is likely to be highly suspected and could possibly be guiltied overNight depending on the PRs. This just doesn't make sense.

If gob is scum and Cook is town, why does he fake hammer her here? It just gives her the opportunity to have a town reaction and clears her. What's the scum motivation there? Doesn't make sense, therefore if gob is scum, it's only with Cook. Cook could be scum with you here though, but again, I think Cook's reaction is real.

Didn't get back to this until today and have to catch up, but I love that my entire ISO of 1 post so far is being used for something.

it will make sense when you catch up

Why are people seeing scum in Black?

-Doc

She's now saying 323 was a lazy case but the timing of it felt really convenient too. Just as gob is voicing the possibility of scum!Black at the top of that page, she brings me up, like a distraction I think. It's known at that point I'm the one gob wants to lim the most toDay.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I just don't know if I buy it, I feel like it doesnt feel quite right.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

You can disagree with it, but it's argument about how best to play the game.

Stealing this

[ssbm_Kyouko]

She's now saying 323 was a lazy case but the timing of it felt really convenient too. Just as gob is voicing the possibility of scum!Black at the top of that page, she brings me up, like a distraction I think. It's known at that point I'm the one gob wants to lim the most toDay

Gob's read on you did influence my decision to look at your ISO. I think he's town. I wanted to do something that could hook me but I wasn't willing to put in much effort. I just wasn't feeling it this morning, and it shows

I don't regret it though because I think I got a decent read from your reaction to it. If you're willing to trust me for now I think we have a decent chance fading scum with D&D

I don't love the wagon (Clap is fine), but aside from that, I don't really want to lim Gamma's hydra right now because I can read her really well and the content isn't there to read yet.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

The words only have one meaning though

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I don't love the wagon (Clap is fine), but aside from that, I don't really want to lim Gamma's hydra right now because I can read her really well and the content isn't there to read yet.

If that's true and she's scum, you've just told her to let Doc do all the posting.

We've played together enough that it (should be) something she's aware of without me having to say it

The words only have one meaning though

Couldnt be more untrue.

Anyway if youre not wolfing, prove it

I must not be understanding your meaning then. What I mean is I'm often getting myself in

situations

because I have

hot opinions

about how the game should be played. I think those words are useful in those situations. I usually have a hard time conveying the simple meaning that those words have (to me)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think you have an expectation of what scum should be, and I'm fitting that for you, but you're by your own admission unwilling to engage me about it.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Like I understand ignoring 361 if you don't feel like talking about it, that's whatever, I don't think it's super important and I was just curious, but you still haven't commented on 362. I don't think you plan to, which again is fine. I'm not scumreading you, and I don't think you're quite "tunneled" to the point where I need to try to open your eyes for you.

You still have eyes for other eliminations so I don't think your scumread on me is jeopardizing your ability to read the game.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Are you really that cool if you didn't take post 420?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@Kyouko - what changed between 396 and 405 regarding the D&D wagon?

Nothing changed in there. Doc posted I guess (396 is a reply to 366, think of it as being there if you're looking for what happened between the two posts), but it was mostly him shitposting. I

think

that's NAI for him, but I don't have any completed games with him to know very well.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I have a similar reaction to her when I'm town

O.o

I don't think this is the gotcha that you think it is. I wasn't around at the beginning of the game to experience chaotic Elements in real time

Are you thinking Elements is out of their chaotic phase already?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

396: I don't mind there is a wagon on them.
405: I don't love the composition of the wagon on them (except Clap, who is fine). I don't want to lim Gamma because I can read her.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

It remains to be seen

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Spoiler:

@Kyouko - what changed between 396 and 405 regarding the D&D wagon?

Nothing changed in there. Doc posted I guess (396 is a reply to 366, think of it as being there if you're looking for what happened between the two posts), but it was mostly him shitposting. I

think

that's NAI for him, but I don't have any completed games with him to know very well.

In 396 you say you don't mind the wagon:

I don't mind the D&D wagon

In 405 you say you don't love it:

I don't love the wagon (Clap is fine), but aside from that, I don't really want to lim Gamma's hydra right now because I can read her really well and the content isn't there to read yet.

How can nothing have changed?

396: I don't mind there is a wagon on them.
405: I don't love the composition of the wagon on them (except Clap, who is fine). I don't want to lim Gamma because I can read her.

Don't love that this was basically ignored and then instead there's a pivot to E-1 D&D - feels like he's looking for something easy.

I'm good with sheeping onto D&D. There doesn't seem to be any sort of gamesolve going on at all. The only vote they've had so far was basically because they didn't like being told to vote me. Most of the rest of their posts have been fluff, or at the very least have no good explanation to them at all.

VOTE: Doc and Drew

This is E-1

I do like seeing Black unvote rather than letting the wagon get rushed through.

This move by Elements doesn't feel like it's in the same spirit though. Feels like they've seen D&D isn't easily going through and they're just on to the next thing

VOTE: Kyouko

bloop

why are you still voting me?

Cook hasn't posted in a while - are you only voting me because gob wants you to?

UNVOTE:

Pedit: funny, I was thinking the same thing about you

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Kinda just want to fade shaddow after this little stunt by Elements?

Why shaddowes rather than Elements if it's Elements' behavior?

Skimming, I dont have much time on the weekends, and my wife is staying home from work tomorrow so I won't have much then either

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Nm I see you answered. Elements felt weirdly antagonistic there. I feel like they only ever have the same question for anyone. Like all the questions feel like the same thing slightly reskinned. "Is that towny/scummy", or "do you really think that's towny/scummy".

I feel like there's a good chance Elements flips scum here. They almost seem like they're trying to be nullread.

VOTE: Elements

I'm fine with a Shaddowez elim as well, I'm not really enthused by the way his questioning of me just dropped like that. I would prefer Elements though.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Dont really have time to wall out the examples now but I feel like I'm seeing them pose the same question to everyone over and over - it's like, that question, and (mostly) naked votes

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I know who we limm today i think. hydra Mizuki black or cook.

Elements/Kyoko is also good pool to lim

so, anyone but you?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

gtmh cook/black

Weird

I was sitting here trying to figure out why you're addressing Black like she's town just a few posts after voting her, I thought maybe you'd changed your mind after she said she'd misunderstood your 689, but then with this it just doesn't make sense.

Seems like you think Black is town, but you're saying your solve is cook/Black

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Cook could you explain that reads list I asked you about, the one you posted when you were fake hammered?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

gtmh cook/black

Weird

I was sitting here trying to figure out why you're addressing Black like she's town just a few posts after voting her, I thought maybe you'd changed your mind after she said she'd misunderstood your 689, but then with this it just doesn't make sense.

Seems like you think Black is town, but you're saying your solve is cook/Black

where am I talking to Black like I think she's tonw?

In 729 - "where do you go when I flip town" implies you think Black is solving

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Gamma, can you explain your TRs to me?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

on Gob and I

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If they're a bad player it's cool. Fact is that d1 lims don't hit scum any better than random chance. So, taking out a person who's junking up the thread and will be difficult to read later is logical if no one is particularly scummy.

Elements doesnt seem too junky to me.

I do find them a little scummy though.

How about we lim you

Claptastic

?

Trying to stick my neck out for you

Elements

and you go and call me bad.

Youre donezo

No i cant really read you

drew

. You always seem scummy to me basically.

I would like to lim Kyouko everyone. I have yet to find a better option.

Who is with me?

Kyouko

, if youre town here just take the mislim

Cook, Black, and Mizuki are missing

I forgot about this because I've been townreading gob, but I was doing some meta research on him and found something notable about scum!gob. To be clear, this is not a scumtell of his, but it's a dead giveaway by associations if he flips red. gob does not address his buddies by name.

This means if gob

is

scum here, he can't be partnered with Elements, D&D, or myself. I haven't really gotten that vibe thus far but pushing for exactly 1 scum in {Elements,Kyouko} does make sense from a scum!gob POV so watch out for that toMorrow if one of us is flipped town toDay or killed toNight

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I do not have the spoons to deal with this current nonsense.

@gob

is the general gist of why you want to lim Mizuki because you think she towned you too easily? That's what I can intuit from the current posts.

-Drew

Gamma what'd you think of the fake hammer on Cook? I think this is the only reaction you had to that. Why are you SRing her now?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Originally I thought the hammer reaction felt real but it's easily fakable for the town cred

I thought you disagreed with me on that based on how you were questioning my take on it when it happened

I do not have the spoons to deal with this current nonsense.

@gob

is the general gist of why you want to lim Mizuki because you think she towned you too easily? That's what I can intuit from the current posts.

-Drew

Gamma what'd you think of the fake hammer on Cook? I think this is the only reaction you had to that. Why are you SRing her now?

i leave for TEN SECONDS

i was a VT. good job

ssbm/black is my strongest pairing right now but i'm willing to be wrong there

think i'd sort like
{ssbm_kyouko, black}
{elements, gob}
{claptastik} is null for lack of activity
{mizuki}
{shaddowez, doc and drew}

anyhow. that's nice to come back to

I don’t think any of this is faked but I don’t see how this is clearing. I have had sorta similar experiences as scum, where I’ve been entirely indisposed and my slot was eliminated in that period, and it was very frustrating.
-Drew

Originally I thought the hammer reaction felt real but it's easily fakable for the town cred

I really think the talk about the fake hammer, and Cook's reaction to it is a waste of time. Any halfway decent player won't flat out say 'Well guys, ya caught me' as scum, since everyone knows fake hammers are a thing.

I don't know why Kyo is fixated on that.

-Doc

Well I thought Black was voting there because she didn't put the same stock in the reaction being genuine and from town!Cook that I do, it seems though maybe she does think it was real after all?

I feel like it's getting forgotten now that a Day has passed.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I thought you disagreed with me on that based on how you were questioning my take on it when it happened

This isn't what happened at all. I was disagreeing with you that Cook could only be scum if gob was scum

Oh ok, that makes more sense

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I've got this sort of nagging feeling about Mizuki this game - last game engaging with her, she felt more open, here she feels more walled off.

Like when I asked about her "really" not knowing gob had hammered, the answer felt kind of flat. I didn't think much of it at the time but the more I think.about Mizuki the more I come back to this. I don't think Cook is scum here, would like to try this instead. I was looking at her vote on shaddowes and the previous post is the first time in her ISO she talks about him, where she's replying to a post where he says he'd be okay limming her. I thought maybe it was deadline-related but there were 2 days left it looked like. I don't like it.

VOTE: Mizuki

[ssbm_Kyouko]

shaddowez

(EXECUTED):

Claptastik

, Doc and Drew, Mizuki, Black, Cook
ssbm_Kyouko (2): Elements,

gob

Elements (1): ssbm_Kyouko
Claptastik (1):

shaddowez

On a mislim wagon Day 1, there is always at least one wolf. Given the night kill was on the shaddowez wagon (Claptastik) I find it more likely there is 1 mafia on shaddowez and 1 mafia off. Why? Because if the mafia NK'd Claptastik on the main shaddowez wagon, it means they aren't scared of making the PoE from the main-wagon being 50/50 with 2 mafia in it.

This leaves Elements / ssbm_kyouko

Between the two I find ssbm_kyouko far more likely to mafia. The main reason is I feel she isn't being as forceful and open as normally. It feels like she was playing scared. Not to mention the difference in activity.

For the on-wagon wolf.

First off I want to mention that Elements and Kyoko together also have w/w equity but that is relatively unlikely. Elements is hard to read at EoD1 for me, but I lean kyoko over Ele for that PoE.

Anyway for the on-wagon wolf,

I don't really find Cook's play at EoD1 to indicate they're wolf. It's possible Cook is trying to go TWTBAW but it just seems really attention-drawing in a bad way for no reason.

Doc and Drew, Mizuki, Black is who I would look at in that PoE. Frankly I feel like they all have wolf equity which is why I dont really want to lim in that pool today.

If I were to guess right now though, Doc and Drew. A lot of Drew's engagement feels fake af.

You're starting from a faulty premise in more than one way here - first off, there are 3 living players off-wagon, and only 2 scum. From any one of our POVs both scum can be off-wagon. More importantly though, Claptastik flipped Roleblocker. I think it's more likely than not that he was speculated to be a PR and killed for that reason. I don't think him being on the wagon is why he was killed, otherwise I feel like Cook would have been the target as she's obviously town off of the fake hammer. Under normal circumstances, I think your assessment is correct and there is 1 scum on, 1 scum off, but in this case I don't think that's a safe assumption to make. In this case it's arbitrary - could be right, but if you're wrong it's a loss. One Day away from ELO is not the time to be assuming a less likely scenario is the case.

What gives Black and Mizuki "wolf equity" for you? What posts of D&D's feel fake?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

What makes it more likely that Mafia specced Clap as a PR? And Cook being "obviously town" is quite clearly a contested claim here considering she was at E-1 just moments ago. I don't think your NKA tracks here.

Shooting randomly, mafia would have a 1/3 chance of hitting a PR, or 2/5 if you assume Cook is town and trueclaimed about being VT. Both of these are less than 50% so it makes it more than likely he was targeted as a PR rather than randomly flipped as a PR.

Also if you look at Cook's E-1 wagon there was Black who herself says Cook is probably town from the fake hammer, and Elements who has literally voted every slot in the game except shaddowes'. Saying she was just at E-1 sounds a lot worse than it was imo.

I think I'm more likely to be correct here than gob

[ssbm_Kyouko]

What exactly is your conclusion Kyouko? You saying Elements is mafia here?

I take some issue with this analysis cause a lot of it is assuming things.

My "conclusion", if you want to call it that, is that Cook being at E-1 recently is not really strong evidence to refute that she is obviously town from the hammer, given the makeup of the wagon. Mizuki said her being E-1 makes her not obviously town from the fake-hammer reaction, but one of the players voting her believes her reaction was towny and another has voted every slot except for one. I don't think that makes as convincing a case against Cook being the towniest on the shaddowes wagon as Mizuki claims.

Furthermore, your analysis also makes an assumption, a less likely assumption, that scum killed Clap because he was on the wagon and not because they thought he was a PR. If scum were killing someone on the wagon for "numeric" reasons like you're suggesting, I think it's far more likely they would kill Cook than Claptastik.

Do you contest anything specific in my reasoning? I feel like you're the one making unsupported claims here

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I do think gob is on the wrong path. So far gob has responded as I think town should - there's no concrete evidence he is being willingly ignorant here.

I do suspect him, and if he's scum then Elements certainly isn't his partner, which means his partner is off-wagon amongst you, D&D, Black, and Cook.

If gob is town, his theory is still less likely than Clap being killed because Clap was a PR, which makes the Elements lim a crapshoot without some additional evidence.

I think you're the most likely to be scum here and as long as gob is advocating for a lim within myself and Elements, he won't be voting you. If he is town, I still need to work with him despite his obstructed worldview, and the easiest way to do that I think is to show him where he's going wrong

[ssbm_Kyouko]

bloop.mp3

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I do think gob is on the wrong path. So far gob has responded as I think town should - there's no concrete evidence he is being willingly ignorant here.

I do suspect him, and if he's scum then Elements certainly isn't his partner, which means his partner is off-wagon amongst you, D&D, Black, and Cook.

If gob is town, his theory is still less likely than Clap being killed because Clap was a PR, which makes the Elements lim a crapshoot without some additional evidence.

I think you're the most likely to be scum here and as long as gob is advocating for a lim within myself and Elements, he won't be voting you. If he is town, I still need to work with him despite his obstructed worldview, and the easiest way to do that I think is to show him where he's going wrong

I'm getting mixed signals, what is your actual read of gob here? If you're townreading him, than I think the way you spoke to him on the NK spec doesn't make sense. In those posts I quoted, you don't bring up my name once, or try to prove to him that I'm the likeliest scum candidate, you're mostly just focused on trying to prove him and myself wrong.

And for that matter, what's your actual read of Elements? I can't remember if you've stated this already, and your most recent posts give me the impression you're mostly just opposed it based on probability.

Gob I think is town, but it's an early read based on his confidence early on D1. He's done some things here and there that, in most cases, are +town for him, such as fake hammering Cook. It doesn't really make sense for him to have done that as scum unless he's specifically scum with Cook. I don't see what doesn't make sense to you, he's pushing an unlikely angle that I think is wrong, and if I'm wrong on him and he is scum, his angle on the NK is not the one I want followed.

If he's so convinced there's one scum on and one scum off wagon he should be able to point in some way to the scum on wagon, to this point he said several of you all have scum equity so because of that he doesn't want to push there. That's an easy excuse for scum!gob and my play simultaneously keeps scum!gob from taking the easy path and allows town!gob to cooperate in one of his POEs

You quoted posts where I was arguing against gob's theory on the NK if I'm not mistaken so why are you surprised they aren't laced with reasoning you're scum? The problem with his analysis is not based on who is scum on the shaddowes wagon, the problem is that he's assumed a less likely scenario is at play, and the scenario he's pushing would be very convenient for scum!gob

Elements I lean scum on. I don't see an indication that they're out of their scumrange and I was able to read them on D1 last game. They're too different here from the last run of the setup. Idk if they're going to become more readable, but if they do and are town, I think I'll be able to tell.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Yes, seems like neither you nor Mizuki remember - I stand by this assessment from 601, but am hesitant to lim you now given that if gob is scum it leads to losing after mislims of you and I. I'd rather find scum on the shaddowes wagon first and figure out the last scum from there.

Nm I see you answered. Elements felt weirdly antagonistic there. I feel like they only ever have the same question for anyone. Like all the questions feel like the same thing slightly reskinned. "Is that towny/scummy", or "do you really think that's towny/scummy".

I feel like there's a good chance Elements flips scum here. They almost seem like they're trying to be nullread.

VOTE: Elements

I'm fine with a Shaddowez elim as well, I'm not really enthused by the way his questioning of me just dropped like that. I would prefer Elements though.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Gob has shown his work, I tend to think he is onto something RE: Elements/Kyo

What's your read on gob looking like?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

oh new guy, you look familiar

[ssbm_Kyouko]

the wagon talk by Gob was very good, but I'm in a different wavelength:

The

Clap

E-2 wagon was composed by, at different times, [

Mizuki

,

Black

,

Shaddow

,

D&D

]. 267 and 350
The

Shaddow

E-1 wagon was composed by [

Mizuki

,

Black

,

Clap

,

D&D

]. 600

think it's very unlikely that both mafia would push for a town miselim two times on D1. I agree with Gob that there's one mafia on and one off this voting block. But I think the Cook hammer was NAI in the end, day was coming to a close and Shaddow would obv be eliminated, so she was not really grouped with the guys who tried to vote both Clap and Shaddow.

so I think there's one scum between [Mizuki, Black/Titus and D&D] and one between [Cook, Elements, Kyouko].

@Titus what do you think, specifically of this VCA? I wonder if you see what I see

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Look at it as an outsider of course, since your slot is on the wagons

[ssbm_Kyouko]

snip

Gob has shown his work, I tend to think he is onto something RE: Elements/Kyo

What's your read on gob looking like?

I feels like he kinda has an ego that always makes me roll my eyes, but lately when I look past that I find myself agreeing with more of his reads, especially how he was breaking things down

oh new guy, you look familiar

I think there a couple imposters using my name in a hydra, those bastards

the wagon talk by Gob was very good, but I'm in a different wavelength:

The

Clap

E-2 wagon was composed by, at different times, [

Mizuki

,

Black

,

Shaddow

,

D&D

]. 267 and 350
The

Shaddow

E-1 wagon was composed by [

Mizuki

,

Black

,

Clap

,

D&D

]. 600

think it's very unlikely that both mafia would push for a town miselim two times on D1. I agree with Gob that there's one mafia on and one off this voting block. But I think the Cook hammer was NAI in the end, day was coming to a close and Shaddow would obv be eliminated, so she was not really grouped with the guys who tried to vote both Clap and Shaddow.

so I think there's one scum between [Mizuki, Black/Titus and D&D] and one between [Cook, Elements, Kyouko].

@Titus what do you think, specifically of this VCA? I wonder if you see what I see

Care to share what you see?

In order:
That doesn't exactly answer my question but I assume you were TRing gob before the replacement,

because you agree with his reads

? Anything more specific than that?

New guy is lucca - his avatar looks familiar I think we may have played together once a long time ago. I'm a meta-diver though so I might have just read a game he was in with someone I was meta-diving at some point.

Not yet, no. I want to know what Titus thinks of it, she's known to be good at VCA and I want to know what she makes of that.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

yoink

@mod I'm gonna take 1000 when it comes around

[ssbm_Kyouko]

the wagon talk by Gob was very good, but I'm in a different wavelength:

The

Clap

E-2 wagon was composed by, at different times, [

Mizuki

,

Black

,

Shaddow

,

D&D

]. 267 and 350
The

Shaddow

E-1 wagon was composed by [

Mizuki

,

Black

,

Clap

,

D&D

]. 600

think it's very unlikely that both mafia would push for a town miselim two times on D1. I agree with Gob that there's one mafia on and one off this voting block. But I think the Cook hammer was NAI in the end, day was coming to a close and Shaddow would obv be eliminated, so she was not really grouped with the guys who tried to vote both Clap and Shaddow.

so I think there's one scum between [Mizuki, Black/Titus and D&D] and one between [Cook, Elements, Kyouko].

Don't care if this is bullshit. While accurate vca is not good often this early, I'm a sucker for it.

Are you saying this is bullshit or accurate vca?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Sure I don't think I'm going to get what I want from Titus here, there's a flaw in 940 I was hoping she would also find upon closer inspection.

The 267 Clap wagon was {Mizuki, Black, Shaddowes}, and the 350 wagon was {Mizuki, Shadowes, D&D}. Mizuki and Shaddowes are the common denominator here - which means that by this logic:

think it's very unlikely that both mafia would push for a town miselim two times on D1

that Mizuki and Shaddowes could be found as "not partnered", but Black & D&D were not both pushing (or at least not on the wagon) at the same time. So I think the logic in 940 should not discount a possible {Black, D&D} team, and the final conclusion (below):

so I think there's one scum between [Mizuki, Black/Titus and D&D] and one between [Cook, Elements, Kyouko].

... should look more like

at least one

scum in [Mizuki, Black/Titus and D&D] and

at most one

scum [Cook, Elements, Kyouko].

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm not sure if it's bullshit because I can see how I would make a post like that - look at the wagons, write them down, and find the similarities - I would draw the same conclusion if I'd written the wagons out in that way because from the way they're written, it does look like the same people pushed both the town wagons, and the following conclusion that there aren't 2 scum in that group makes sense.

This logic also assumes that there was a scum on both of those wagons, but I think that's a pretty safe assumption to make. I feel like it would be pretty weird to get 2 large wagons on town both being fully comprised of town.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm not going to be around to post Christmas day, and I think midnight on the 26th means the night of the 25th so yeah. I'll be back on the 26th

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Prolly means I'll miss post 1000, merry Christmas @mod

[ssbm_Kyouko]

My theory is the triangle of voters in the last vc are all town.

Can i get you to VOTE: Cook then?

I was going to ask why since this feels to me like the first time you've pushed something of your own this game - but I decided to check your ISO first and I'm now seeing this has actually been a consistent thing for you. I think I was mostly ignoring it before because I felt like the hammer reaction must come from town, so that's why this felt like the first action from you.

Taking a few days off brings a new perspective. I think I can see the Cook scumreads now and I feel pretty dumb having townbinned her too easily. I also think if she makes it to ELO and she is town, she might be an easy mislim from paranoia around the D1 fakehammer reaction possibly being faked.

VOTE: Cook E-1 I think

[ssbm_Kyouko]

unless the team is exactly Cook/D&D there is scum bussing Cook/prepping for a mislim

I could see the team being exactly JV(Cook)/D&D, especially given 1025:

Jackson if you're town you might want to do things asap

This Cook wagon seems like it came on quickly, not sure I like the timing of it.

Please elaborate

Eod, during a holiday where people are MIA.....now especially with a repp in.

Seems very convenient for a mis lim to be pushed though.

I'm assuming that Elements/Titus, like me, are back to activity after Christmas ended and are ready to continue with this game. If this were all happening like on the 24th/25th maybe the timing is weird, but Christmas is over now

[ssbm_Kyouko]

As an Aside I am town reading you Lucca based on Blacks input also.

Black and Titus are the same slot - gob and Lucca are the same slot. I'm not sure if you're saying you're taking Black's reads as input into your decision, or if you're TRing Lucca because you TRed Black and you think Lucca replaced Black, not gob

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Well I was planning on catching up/rereading on Monday for this but it's a holiday, so i wont have my full desktop attention here until Tuesday

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Bloop

Am here in reading rn, sorry about missing the deadline, I kinda thought we had more time because of the holidays and replacements, didn't know Day was ending and got surprised by the PM

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Alright I'm back, and I don't CC Titus. It doesn't look like Drew has posted since the claim so it's just him to wait on to confirm it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: ElementsI am gonna go with Gobs thinking(RIP) and follow him to Elements, well follow in spirit I guess lol.

And you think I'm more likely red than kyo despite the severe lack of getting anyone to vote her day 1 because....

I've never understood this reasoning - there are 7 town and 2 scum on D1 in this setup - if you "can't get anyone to vote" someone because they're scum that means there's only one other scum in the game that won't vote them if they don't want to bus. If you assume I'm scum, the majority of people choosing not to vote me on D1 are town, fullstop. It took 5 to lim, which means at most 4 could vote me and at least 4 refuse to vote me (not counting myself), and only one of the 4 refusing to vote can be scum. If someone is not being voted on D1 it's not because they're scum. Definitely not with these numbers. Maybe in larges this has more credibility because there are more scum to make informed voting decisions, but the numbers do not add up and anyone thinking about this should be able to see this for themself. Which is why I don't understand why so many people think and say "x is scum because nobody will vote them"

[ssbm_Kyouko]

idt Elements is wolf so Id prefer anybody but

talking of why scum might pick this ELO if JV is town

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also me acknowledging I could hammer yo self pres but I’m not

@JV Why didn't you hammer at this point?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

How/why did you forget a hammer is required for an elim, and how/why/when did you remember?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Sorry elements.

VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko

Yo can you unvote before 2 scum come online at once?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Like I really don't want to get screwed in ELO because you replaced in late and didn't want to read the game if you are town here. It also makes no sense that town!you would offer to vote first as a claimed PR when you should be expecting the 4 of us to crossvote somehow

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Does that bother you?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

This should preclude an Elements/JV team then

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm just fuming right now because of the vote - I don't know

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Like honestly going to be so gutted AGAIN if I get mislimmed here when it actually matters

[ssbm_Kyouko]

kinda hard to think about anything else and I really should just walk away now but cant

[ssbm_Kyouko]

hello darkness my old friend

[ssbm_Kyouko]

And all because I didn't realize the deadline was approaching yesterDay, just makes me angry

[ssbm_Kyouko]

cool.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Good game. Thanks for having me. Glad I could turn around the slot although I think the claim mostly did that.

Why would you vote first there unCCed, I'm legit curious (like I was salty you were doing it in the game but I would've felt the same if I was town, or if I was town and you were voting someone else)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

GGs btw, been a long time since I rolled scum and it wasnt as bad as I remember

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also sorry Gamma, I was hoping I could pull out this win for you.

For a minute Elements let us think you were gonna, but the ITS DREW 'crumb' was a hilarious way of breaking that illusion

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Sorry that was probably more crushing than it was funny for you