Mini Normal 2323 [There is an Inventor] | FIN

[biancospino]

votecount

Votecount 2-V

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to hammer.

DragonEater70 (3):

ssbm_Kyouko, JacksonVirgo, Katsuki

Gamma Emerald (2):

Black, DragonEater70

Black (1):

Gamma Emerald

Not Voting (5):

Hu Tao, KittyTacky, davesaz, camelCasedSnivy, Thomith

notes

• The deadline is due in (expired on 2024-01-15 23:15:09).
  
• You can find the combined mod ISO here

[DragonEater70]

Because of how fast the DE70 wagon grew, I do also think there's at least 1 scum in [ssbm_Kyouko, Gamma Emerald, JacksonVirgo, Katsuki, Black, Hu Tao (not on the wagon, but mentioned multiple times they wanted to be.)]

I think 2?

There's either two scum in {Kitty, CCS, dave, kyouko, Kat, Hu} or two scum in {Gamma, Thomith, Jackson, Dragon}

I like my chances with the second group

It's gamma and Dragon. My gut is telling me kyouko is scum though. But I could be wrong on that cause I don't see all 3 of them scum together

Why are you scum reading me again?

I'm sus of katsuki, kyouko, Dragon, gamma and Camel.

Not in any order. I wouldn't be surprised if at least 2 scum is in there.

Camel > Dragon today imo.

But I wouldn't hate a dragon vote

Why camel? Is it just the low content and how his wagon stalled?

Based on meta he seems different but he could just be busy

Hmm

I see what you mean, but the last two times I tried to read him off of meta I failed miserably. I think it's best to judge him on play alone.

{Gamma, Thomith, Jackson, Dragon}
The issue I have here is I think I'm townreading everyone in this list right now.

Who do you scumread?

[Gamma Emerald]

I think Dragon is the vote today. Because if he's scum we turbo vote gamma. And kyouko is pretty lock town if gamma is also scum.

Why can't gamma and kyouko be scum together?

If Dragon is scum I think gamma thought kyouko had a guilty on her partner.

Oh I see, you are assuming Dragon is scum here

If Dragon is town do you think kyouko/gamma has any equity?

Possibly but not necessarily as a team but individually

Clunky post

[DragonEater70]

I could see Gamma/Kyo. I felt it was really weird Kyo didn't have a read on Gamma yesterday. I do feel something doesn't fully add up though woth how hard Kyo is TRing Gamma - I'm not sure wolf!Kyo is actually likely to TR a partner that heavily.

[Thomith]

I think I'm still between Hu Tao, CCS, Katsuki, Dave

[Thomith]

I could see Gamma/Kyo. I felt it was really weird Kyo didn't have a read on Gamma yesterday. I do feel something doesn't fully add up though woth how hard Kyo is TRing Gamma - I'm not sure wolf!Kyo is actually likely to TR a partner that heavily.

Because of the Rhyming D1 I do see why it may have been harder.

[Black]

{Gamma, Thomith, Jackson, Dragon}
The issue I have here is I think I'm townreading everyone in this list right now.

Why do you townread Gamma?

Even with the rhyming thing, it felt like she was trying to solve Day 1, part of me can see it deciding not to defend Naerys' claim because of not knowing how to make things rhyme (like idk how to really explain this other than something I could just see Gamma doing). I feel like scum!Gamma wouldn't mention anything about roleswapping with Kyouko (unless they are scum together and planned this), because from what I saw of Scum!Gamma in the 09:12 Open was that she prefered to almost be in the background.
I also do trust Kyouko's ability to read Gamma due to the amount of times she has done it successfully, however there is of course a world where they are scum together.

The roleswapping comment was completely LAMIST and it isn't the first time Gamma has tried the LAMIST approach

I've also seen scum!Gamma

not

take a background role in the game, so that's probably NAI

As far as kyouko's ability to read Gamma...we still haven't even gotten confirmation that kyouko townreads Gamma. The last we heard, kyouko was trying to disengage from Gamma so she could read her better

[Hu Tao]

Well majority seems to think there is a scum in kyouko/gamma/Dragon. Possibly two

[DragonEater70]

{Gamma, Thomith, Jackson, Dragon}
The issue I have here is I think I'm townreading everyone in this list right now.

Glad you are townreading yourself but seriously why do you tr dragon?

Why do you SR me?

[Black]

I could see Gamma/Kyo. I felt it was really weird Kyo didn't have a read on Gamma yesterday. I do feel something doesn't fully add up though woth how hard Kyo is TRing Gamma - I'm not sure wolf!Kyo is actually likely to TR a partner that heavily.

I may have missed it but where is the evidence that kyouko hard townreads Gamma?

[Hu Tao]

I think I'm still between Hu Tao, CCS, Katsuki, Dave

Can you explain why I'm scum here?

[Hu Tao]

{Gamma, Thomith, Jackson, Dragon}
The issue I have here is I think I'm townreading everyone in this list right now.

Glad you are townreading yourself but seriously why do you tr dragon?

Why do you SR me?

Your play reminds me of that last game you were scum

[ssbm_Kyouko]

There's either two scum in {Kitty, CCS, dave, kyouko, Kat, Hu} or two scum in {Gamma, Thomith, Jackson, Dragon}

I like my chances with the second group

Oh I think this is why Gamma likes the first group because 2/6 versus 1/4, I just didn't expect her (or most people) to consider the latter a 1/4 when discussing statstics. Most people conveniently overlook that their alignment is only guaranteed to themself and town!Gamma would see this as 2/6 vs 1/3 which are equal

[Thomith]

I think I'm still between Hu Tao, CCS, Katsuki, Dave

Can you explain why I'm scum here?

The honest genuine answer is I'm probably tunelled on you.

[DragonEater70]

{Gamma, Thomith, Jackson, Dragon}

I want to fade in this group

Why has your read on me changed?
Still the Jackson thing from yesterday?

These 4 were off the Naerys wagon and I don't think the entire scum team was on that wagon

Aside from that though I'm having a similar problem that I had in Micro Normal 1094. Some of your posts just gut ping me the wrong way

Issue with your pool is, unless one or less scum was on Naerys, it is still statistically better to look at those on the wagon.

at least one out of 4 off wagon: 1, 2 or 3 out of 4, average 2/4 (50%), or 2/3 (66.7%) if you're a townie in that group of 4
On-wagon would be 0-2, on average 1/7 (14.3%) , or 1/6 (16.7%) if you're a townie on the wagon

Why would it be statistically better to look on the wagon here?

I'm very confused why you are assuming at least one scum off wagon but not at least one scum on wagon? It feels like fabricated math.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Ok but your solvable behavior, for me, is when you get emotional over something. I don't want to induce that intentionally over a game

Can you elaborate on this? I've seen Gamma get emotional as scum and I've also seen her act really nonchalant as scum. I think you're probably better at reading her than I am so I'm curious what you think

The easiest way to explain is that Gamma as town is at 100% cause to reaction ratio. As scum she either overdoes it or isnt fully in it and is more at either 90% or 110% ratio. Maybe even 95/105. The difference is small and hard to quantify. I dont know how I know when I know, I just do. It feels fruitless to try to explain how it works

And it's also worth noting I've found that due to.my frequent confbiasing I have better success letting Gamma alone for a while so when I do move to read her my read is not prejudiced.

Kyouko I thought you didn't have a strong Gamma read yet? Are you saying you townread her now?

Yes, she just now had her righteous moment at 100% commitment when she called Hu Tao heinous

[Hu Tao]

I think I'm still between Hu Tao, CCS, Katsuki, Dave

Can you explain why I'm scum here?

The honest genuine answer is I'm probably tunelled on you.

I respect it.

[DragonEater70]

I could see Gamma/Kyo. I felt it was really weird Kyo didn't have a read on Gamma yesterday. I do feel something doesn't fully add up though woth how hard Kyo is TRing Gamma - I'm not sure wolf!Kyo is actually likely to TR a partner that heavily.

I may have missed it but where is the evidence that kyouko hard townreads Gamma?

Sorry I may have misinterpreted this post:

VOTE: kyouko
While I think Dragon is a fine place to go,
I want to vote somewhere less covered, that being kyouko
honestly kyouko fits the bill of the scum I voted in the past rhyming game
since I regard both slot's content involving me as lame

I don't think it's likely that all 3 scum were on the Naerys wagon

Which means there's at least one scum in {Gamma, Thomith, Jackson, Dragon}

Alternatively: that wagon was god-awful and we should kill on it.
VOTE: Camel
Still don’t trust you.

VOTE: Dragon

This progression is awful

Why are you voting outside of the wagon if you think we should fade on it? Wouldn't it make more sense for you to vote kyouko here?

Agreed

VOTE: Gamma

If you're town here Gamma is never scum - what do you think of Thomith and JV?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

{Gamma, Thomith, Jackson, Dragon}

I want to fade in this group

Why has your read on me changed?
Still the Jackson thing from yesterday?

These 4 were off the Naerys wagon and I don't think the entire scum team was on that wagon

Aside from that though I'm having a similar problem that I had in Micro Normal 1094. Some of your posts just gut ping me the wrong way

Issue with your pool is, unless one or less scum was on Naerys, it is still statistically better to look at those on the wagon.

at least one out of 4 off wagon: 1, 2 or 3 out of 4, average 2/4 (50%), or 2/3 (66.7%) if you're a townie in that group of 4
On-wagon would be 0-2, on average 1/7 (14.3%) , or 1/6 (16.7%) if you're a townie on the wagon

Why would it be statistically better to look on the wagon here?

I'm very confused why you are assuming at least one scum off wagon but not at least one scum on wagon? It feels like fabricated math.

I assume at least one off because Black's point that "not all 3 scum are on Naerys" makes sense, which means

at most 2

are on Naerys - the numbers come from there. I guess you could take the opposite stance too, not really thinking about that as I'm trying to read all these posts coming in and I see a statement that just looks wrong

[DragonEater70]

{Gamma, Thomith, Jackson, Dragon}
The issue I have here is I think I'm townreading everyone in this list right now.

Glad you are townreading yourself but seriously why do you tr dragon?

Why do you SR me?

Your play reminds me of that last game you were scum

Can you elaborate?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

the opposite stance being that not all 3 scum are off Naerys, so you could say, for both cases, there are either 1 or 2 scum in each split, average 1.5:

1.5/4 = 3/8 = 37.5%
1.5/7 = 21.4%

Looking on wagon is still statistically worse, but yes my numbers were unfair

[Gamma Emerald]

I think I'm still between Hu Tao, CCS, Katsuki, Dave

Why dave? I liked his approach to me D1

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm very confused why you are assuming at least one scum off wagon but not at least one scum on wagon? It feels like fabricated math.

Ew
I don’t agree with the underlying assumptions kyouko had but that doesn’t make it fabricated

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: kyouko
While I think Dragon is a fine place to go,
I want to vote somewhere less covered, that being kyouko
honestly kyouko fits the bill of the scum I voted in the past rhyming game
since I regard both slot's content involving me as lame

I don't think it's likely that all 3 scum were on the Naerys wagon

Which means there's at least one scum in {Gamma, Thomith, Jackson, Dragon}

Alternatively: that wagon was god-awful and we should kill on it.
VOTE: Camel
Still don’t trust you.

VOTE: Dragon

This progression is awful

Why are you voting outside of the wagon if you think we should fade on it? Wouldn't it make more sense for you to vote kyouko here?

Agreed

VOTE: Gamma

If you're town here Gamma is never scum - what do you think of Thomith and JV?

Explain?

Gamma doesn't assume I have a guilty if she knows you're town, which she would know if she were scum and you were town. Therefore if you are town, she can't be scum. I'm not as sure on this as I am on how I read Gamma but I'm pretty sure this is the way she would think

[Black]

Can we get more votes on Gamma