Large Normal 246: Game Over

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think multiple hoods is a theme game thing but I'll keep looking - if anyone remembers a normal with multiple hoods for a neighborizer from their own experience lmk and save me some time

[ssbm_Kyouko]

which means last 2 scum are dave + one of enchant/bq2

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Looking at this Normal game review, Neighborizer has their thread from daystart on D1 and can leave notes in it, allowing their neighbor target to enter the PT and pass on their notes even if the Neighborizer dies.

I'm assuming BQ2 is the town and enchant the scum, but I'll ask both of you anyways: did Dave leave behind any notes in his thread from before he tried to neighborize you - notes that, upon his flip, could have been used to convey any reads he had kept hidden to himself?

link: viewtopic.php?p=13746344#p13746344

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think it simply is dave and enchant caught messing up a true claim (scum!Simple Neighborizer) - the problem is, Enchant is also a PR (the Universal Backup) and couldn't be added to the hood.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Won't ever vote until I do catch up entirely but what's everyone's thoughts on Naerys

I thought town on D1, there is a tl;dr post explaining why - on D2 the read was getting stale but D3 she's claimed 1-shot Friendly Neighbor and Guillo confirmed he received the message.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

It also didnt matter if the read was getting stale to me because we were limming scum

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm waiting for mod - I found a theme game of Jingle's where the neighborizer was given separate hoods on my phone yesterday, it was a really wacky setup up with 3 mini-games and the people in the hoods could keep posting even after they died, but it was clear in the role PM that the neighborizer could target any number of players, not necessarily including themselves, to make a new PT where all of the targeted players would be able to post, even after death, for the rest of the game.

I've also seen Bingle/Jingle mention he runs a lot of theme games and would not be surprised if a Neighborizer in this game would work as dave has described, because Jingle is used to running Themes. I don't think he will abstain from answering the question though, because this is a normal game and I've asked a very straightforward question about how an unmodified role would work assuming no interference.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Although I also see this and, since all 3 of dave, BQ2, and enchant can't be scum, it does seem at least some kind of error has been made, unless this was later revised:

Role PMs will be standardized. Moderators will no longer provide their own role PMs; instead, they can grab the standard PM from the wiki. This is a work in progress, so for now, you'll still need to write PMs, though the wiki has sample PMs already for most roles.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

since all 3 of dave, BQ2, and enchant can't be scum,

A question here, why cant they be scum? Would the neighborizer work on a goon?

My point is that there shouldn't be more the 4 scum here and we've already flipped 2, so all 3 of them being scum would mean 5 scum in 17p. It's not against the guidelines since this is a Complex setup, but it doesn't seem possible.

I guess it could be, but I don't think so.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Okay looks like deadline in this game is also over the weekend... I PMed Bingle/Jingle asking about Neighborizer just now since it's been a little bit since Jingle checked in but Bingle has been active in some games so maybe he'll spot the question there before deadline.

Even if mod can't confirm, Dave can still confirm himself by neighborizing either HT or JV - if he has 3 hoods and they're all separate and we assume 4 scum (I think this is safe) then we know he isn't lying about one of BQ2/Enchant.

Random Nurse can, if he wants, target Dave toNight. This is by no means necessary but if Dave is scum, it will force scum's hand if RN targets this way, because they won't be able to kill, alien, and neighborize all at once. If Dave is scum and lying about creating individual hoods, he won't be able to claim he was aliened if RN turns up dead with another body - which basically forces scum!Dave to kill RN and narrow the PR pool, closing the net around himself.

Since Dave/RN can work themselves out overNight I think Guillotina is who I want the most right now - if Dave is scum he'll get caught by this claim as long as we keep him leashed, and if he is town, it means the scum is amongst the other PRs and dave can continue to confirm that claimed VTs are in fact vanilla.

If Guillo flips scum I'm fine if Dave wants to freely target amongst any of the claimed PRs instead because at that point we already know that 2 town (Enchant and BQ2) have confirmed he does in fact create separate hoods.

Back to this unless the mod comes in and confirms "a neighborizer should only have 1 hood" before the deadline comes
VOTE: Guillo
I don't want a VT dead right now because I don't want scum to be able to Alien the last VT - if dave is town, I want them to have to 50-50 guess which VT to Alien if they want to try to frame dave by stopping his hood without targeting him. Actually this doesn't make sense now that I type it out, they could just Alien dave. I guess the benefit is that if dave and RN are both town it means they'll only be able to interfere with one of them

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Alright well, I was drafting something when the Neighborizer realization hit me and I've since deleted the notepad - I was rereading - cant remember what exactly, but I dont think I started on page 1 - and some post of Hu Tao's I think it was prompted me to look at the setup/claims again and start writing shit out.

I dont really want to be on the chopping block but I don't think limming VTs is the way to go. I remember writing down that I seriously doubt there are any TPRs that claimed VT to hide their role, so we should let dave 'clear' the VTs while we work on finding the scum in the PRs.

We've had, 6 VT flips/claims. 6/13 town being vanilla I think is reasonable given that Millers are just more vanillas that can be cleared by rolecop in this setup. 8 'vanillas' and 5 PRs. All investigatives claimed/flipped are pretty much only able to clear, not guilty, and we had 2 weaker (RN kills himself if he hits scum and dies after 1 successful protect) (Guillo is 2-shot) protectives and 2 FN claims.

Hu Tao - confirmed vanilla by flipped rolecop result
Enchant/BQ2 - confirmed vanilla by unflipped davesaz - at least one must be vanilla as there's just not 5 scum here I don't think
JV (Timmer) - claimed VT
KK - flipped VT
Elements - flipped VT

I think what we need is for dave/RN to clear each other/JV while we lim inside the PRs. So we cant lim either of them. It needs to be between me, dunnstral, and guillo today

[ssbm_Kyouko]

We have 2 mislims before ELO, 3 if RN isn't a second body one of these next 2 Nights.

8-2 now - lim in {Kyo, Dunn, Guillo}

Lim one, if town we go to 6-2 or 5-2 if RN hits scum
At 5-2 we have 2 mislims amongst 4 PRs {Kyo, Dunn, Guillo, dave, Naerys}, minus the one we lim toDay.

If we lim Guillo toDay, we get 2 mislims amongst 3 PRs if Guillo is Town, because Naerys gets removed.

If we go to 6-2/4-2, RN can provide his clears - he can target in the PRs while dave clears the last VT. If scum wants the VTs on the table they'll have to block dave, leaving RN to target the other PRs (not dave because probably the blocker is a Backup turned alien). If scum are in the PRs they have to block RN.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Those are millers, not masons

implying we're not masons that decided to fakeclaim miller in pregame

note to self: do this next time I roll mason
note to everyone else: for legal reasons, don't take that note to self seriously if you roll scum against me

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Spoiler: the master plan

Alright well, I was drafting something when the Neighborizer realization hit me and I've since deleted the notepad - I was rereading - cant remember what exactly, but I dont think I started on page 1 - and some post of Hu Tao's I think it was prompted me to look at the setup/claims again and start writing shit out.

I dont really want to be on the chopping block but I don't think limming VTs is the way to go. I remember writing down that I seriously doubt there are any TPRs that claimed VT to hide their role, so we should let dave 'clear' the VTs while we work on finding the scum in the PRs.

We've had, 6 VT flips/claims. 6/13 town being vanilla I think is reasonable given that Millers are just more vanillas that can be cleared by rolecop in this setup. 8 'vanillas' and 5 PRs. All investigatives claimed/flipped are pretty much only able to clear, not guilty, and we had 2 weaker (RN kills himself if he hits scum and dies after 1 successful protect) (Guillo is 2-shot) protectives and 2 FN claims.

Hu Tao - confirmed vanilla by flipped rolecop result
Enchant/BQ2 - confirmed vanilla by unflipped davesaz - at least one must be vanilla as there's just not 5 scum here I don't think
JV (Timmer) - claimed VT
KK - flipped VT
Elements - flipped VT

I think what we need is for dave/RN to clear each other/JV while we lim inside the PRs. So we cant lim either of them. It needs to be between me, dunnstral, and guillo today

Going to flesh this out a little more as it was made on my phone

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Spoiler: I drafted this but after VCA/reconsideration I disagree with the plan - here is what I had for anyone curious

Guillo - 2-shot something something doc
RN - combined bodyguard disloyal vig
Davesaz - simple neighborizer
Dunn - no mech ties to the living - did receive Andres' FN message
Kyouko - no mech ties
Naerys - FNed to Guillo

Vanillas (4 alive):
Hu Tao - confirmed vanilla
Enchant/BQ2 - at least one confirmed, both after dave flip
JV (Timmer) - unconfirmed, joins Enchant/BQ2 category after toMorrow if Dave neighborizes successfully
KK - flipped
Elements - flipped


10 alive, 8-2 now. Lim one, if town, move to 6-2 or be 1 town!RN down - will refer to these as evens/odds.

Evens (assuming neighborization works): 2 mislims moves to 4-2 MELO. If we stay in the PRs (assuming JV gets confirmed vanilla), we can kill 2 of {Guillo, RN, Davesaz, Dunn, Kyouko, Naerys} before having to make the potentially game-losing choice in MELO.
Naerys should never die before Guillo because if Guillo is mislimmed (not scum) it removes Naerys from the POE. Dave should be allowed at least one more Night to Neighborize JV -
In evens, there is still a possibilty that RN is scum - assuming he lives this long, he's either getting blocked or getting clears. I've been thinking on this a little - the Andres kill makes sense mechanically because he was the only one left that could help us confirm who, if anyone, was being aliened.
With him dead now, he can't speak up and say "actually I targeted X (not RN) so if they didn't receive the message it means RN can't have been blocked last Night because either X or I was blocked"

Odds: 2 mislims and RN dying leads to 3-2 ELO, where we can kill 2 of {Guillo, Davesaz, Dunn, Kyouko, Naerys} before the potentially game-losing mislim. Again with the Naerys/Guillo thing, thats 2 of {Guillo, Davesaz, Dunn, Kyouko} and if both are misses then ELO is a 1v1 between the last 2 - no way are 2 (more) vanillas scum here I think, unless that's been the whole point of the setup.

Replaced all old names with current slot owners
D1 final:

KawaiiKame

-

Andresvmb

, Dunnstral, Kyouko,

Gamma

,

Black

,

Elements

, Naerys, JacksonVirgo,

Celebloki

Gamma

- Hu Tao, Guillotina
Enchant - dave,

KawaiiKame

ssbm_Kyouko -

Roden

Hu Tao - Broccoli Quest 2
not voting - Random Nurse, Enchant

D2 final:

Roden

- Broccoli Quest 2, Dunnstral, Kyouko, davesaz, Hu Tao, Guillotina,

Elements

, Naerys
Hu Tao - Random Nurse,

Roden

Elements

- Enchant,

Andresvmb

not voting - JacksonVirgo,

Celebloki

D3 final:

Elements

-

Andresvmb

, Hu Tao, ssbm_Kyouko, Dunnstral, Naerys, JacksonVirgo,

Elements

JacksonVirgo - Guillotina, Enchant, Broccoli Quest 2
not voting - Random Nurse, davesaz

Also looking at final VCs for quick patterns -
Hu Tao was on unlimmed scum D1 and on the D2(scum)/D3(town) final wagons: +town for being on scum on D1 and then joins in on the townblocking (below) after D1
Dunnstral, Kyouko, and Naerys on all 3 final wagons: inconclusive - though I know I'm town, I TR Naerys, and Naerys has the FN claim - so this is probably just townblocking
JV on both town wagons (D1/D3) - not voting when scum dies on D2: ++scum
Guillotina on scum D1 and on the scum wagon D2 - off both town wagons: +town/TMI, I suspect the claim but not necessarily the play as far as I can remember. Need to self-ISO.
Dave/BQ2 - off town, on scum, off town on D1/D2/D3: +town/TMI, but I TR BQ2 independently - dave could be TMI without looking at context of votes and recalling my general suspicion of his D1 play.
Random Nurse - not voting, off scum (voting HT with Roden), not voting: +slightly scum
Enchant - Not voting (was Keyleth at this point), off scum, off town: +slightly scum

I think, in a shocking new twist, I am going to ditch my mech plan as I've already been bitten in the ass once by Gamma in this game and accept this is not an Open setup and nothing is guaranteed, even less so when Jingle is the mod and it's a "complex" game.

I am down for JV or RN toDay. I suspect Andres was killed to allow scum!RN to get by claiming he could have been blocked. Aside from that his voting patterns are poor, but no worse than Enchant's. JV has the worst voting patterns at end of day, and I've already individually cased Timmer before him, and I think by both Timmer's play and the catchup is the most likely to flip scum. BQ2 has also been my town "rock" since Black died and he has been on the correct wagons all 3 Days and now he is pushing for JV, I'm going to go with it. Not as a sheep because I'm the one that originally cased Timmer, but as like a townblocking thing. Hopefully Dunn, Naerys, Hu Tao will all join this, JV will flip scum, and we'll have a solid voting block/towncore to move forward with

VOTE: JacksonVirgo

[ssbm_Kyouko]

JV also feels the most likely of anyone to flip scum and if we are in a scum!JV/town!RN world, town!RN can no longer be blocked

while

scum nightkills which means scum probably kills RN anyways if JV is scum, to stop RN from giving clears.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

That is my final vote for toDay most likely - got about 40 minutes left before I'm V/LA for the weekend, and I think the 24h extension just moves the deadline from Saturday to Sunday for me

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh darn, checked Hu Tao's ISO I don't think they're a JV vote we can count on

[ssbm_Kyouko]

You added that on because you wanted to add more to your case, you aren't interested in solving me. You're interested in casing me, and when that didn't work out you just drop it without thinking of what that actualy means (the reverse of what you were concluding was the truth but instead of reconsidering somewhat you just dropped it) and nothing changes. You continue to push me based of what reason? Me thinking the wagon on me is sleep worthy, like lol? Again, explain that

I agree that zzz is a scum response - reminded me of a scum game of mine I just looked at recently where my response was literally

*fart noise*

Its dismissive without addressing the wagon

[ssbm_Kyouko]

please explain why town would respond this way and who do you wanna kill today considering you TR Guillo

Ever heard of apathy?

And apathy can come from either alignment here - especially as a replace-in that hasn't finished reading (I think) you'd probably have low investment either way

[ssbm_Kyouko]

yo

[ssbm_Kyouko]

2 deaths means that RN targeted scum

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'll target Guillotina. Or Dunnstral. Probably Guillotina.

I don't think we're ELO yet or anything but I think Guillo is the scum targeted by RN

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Looks like 7 alive 5-2 right now

Naerys - FN targeted Guillo
Hu Tao - confirmed vanilla, was targeted by RN one night so if RN was not blocked then confirmed VT
Broccoli Quest 2 - confirmed vanilla
Guillotina (PoP) - role seems fake and 50-50 with Dunn for who RN guiltied
Enchant - confirmed vanilla
Dunnstral - miller - on N1 Dave failed to neighborize, meaning either dave or dunn was aliened, or Dunn has a PR - unlikely dave would target Dunn again I think
ssbm_Kyouko - miller

Scum probably killed dave because he would start checking the PR claims to find which one wasn't vanilla, which points to me, Guillo, and Naerys.

Assuming Dunn is town it seems unlikely he would be Aliened on N1 because like, why would you do that as scum when you might be able to stop a useful PR from acting - not to mention with Gamma claiming gunsmith, scum might have thought a vigilante was around and they wouldn't want to stop a vigilante from shooting in the miller claims.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So it's probably Guillo, I don't think I die overNight because I'm one of the suspects for ELO - probably BQ2 and Enchant die the next 2 Nights if we have to lim both Guillo and Dunn to find which one RN targeted

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Scum probably killed dave because he would start checking the PR claims to find which one wasn't vanilla, which points to me, Guillo, and Naerys.

technically points to Dunn as well but dave already checked him N1

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So yeah I think I'll still be alive toMorrow, I think PoP toDay and if he's town, Dunn toMorrow obviously.

BQ2 probably dying so if you have anything to add before we do this, or any of your ISO you want to highlight before toNight, now's the time. Normally this is where I don't want to rush because I'm dying but it's not me for once

[ssbm_Kyouko]

hmm

[ssbm_Kyouko]

No, dave and RN were the last.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Does anyone think it's more likely to be Dunn than PoP? Or has anyone actually thought about it? My instinct is that it's just PoP here - Guillo's votes were way TMI, and his claim stinks, and I've just had this sneaking suspicion of him most of the game but I feel like I'm not

considering

Dunn

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I would like faster nights if possible. I know mod is very busy, but i feel like this game will be over soon. Or atleast i hope so. Thx.

I also want faster nights, would be nice now that we're in the endgame

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Does anyone think it's more likely to be Dunn than PoP? Or has anyone actually thought about it? My instinct is that it's just PoP here - Guillo's votes were way TMI, and his claim stinks, and I've just had this sneaking suspicion of him most of the game but I feel like I'm not

considering

Dunn

No. We vote prince

I think so too, but like I said I haven't

considered

and I wonder if anyone has?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I at least want to wait for Enchant/BQ2 to see if dave left anything useful in the hood overNight

[ssbm_Kyouko]

yeah he's at E-1 now

[ssbm_Kyouko]

eh fuck it we ball

everybody ask for fast night please

VOTE: PoP

Revengeance for Chrono Trigger

[ssbm_Kyouko]

oh while you're here did dave send anything

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I already PMed the mod about the hammer asking for fast night so be speedy if so

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Naerys
Hu Tao
Broccoli Quest 2
Guillotina
Enchant
Dunnstral
ssbm_Kyouko

This is the alive list - 7 alive, 4 to hammer - Naerys, Hu Tao, BQ2 and I voted you

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hu Tao posting like she might die fwiw

[ssbm_Kyouko]

yeah technically not confirmed, I would expect scum leave you around as WIFOM but I don't really remember who suspects you and they might have to kill in people that suspected you to keep PRs alive

[ssbm_Kyouko]

That's why it's notable to me that you're posting like you might die here. You, BQ2, and Enchant are all confirmed Vanilla

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think if PoP flips "Backup" (universal or backup alien) that scum probably have one other PR, otherwise they would essentially be a 1-PR team against all of this flipped town power:

Simple Neighborizer
Combined Bodyguard Vigilante
Rolecop
at least 1 miller (if PoP is scum there is 1 scum left and at least 1 of Dunn and I must be telling the truth)
Friendly Neighbor/Messenger role
Babysitter Hider role

Don't think I'm missing any (flipped/confirmed) roles.

It's possible there are several goons to throw off the Simple Neighborizer but that feels too weak for what's here. At the same time a second FN might just be too strong for what else we've seen flipped

[ssbm_Kyouko]

There are also no other x-shot roles flipped yet and both Naerys and Guillo claimed X-shot

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm not sure if we can talk about concessions, but Naerys goes after PoP if this is a scum!PoP flip

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm not sure if we can talk about concessions, but Naerys goes after PoP if this is a scum!PoP flip

@Naerys

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Welp, I was trying to keep Guilll hidden with my claim, but oh well.

Where did you see Guillo indicate that they are doctor before this?

there are bold letters in this post that spell out "I'm doc":

Pre-Flip Associations analysis Part 1

For this analysis,

I

'm going to look at the game from a third party perspective, pretending Guillotina is just another player.

The following are not Mafia/Mafia together:

Kyo/Guillo based on the following:

Holy shit you're here
VOTE: Guillotina
For that one time in that one game

Dunn/elements based on the following

Reason: The way he questioned ele

m

ents there. It was designed to attract attention on elements.

Gamma and Black probably town

Gamma has done what so far?

Elements/Dave based on the following:

Reason: Mafia dont pocket each other in RvS, they instead

D

istance.

Gamma and Black probably town

Gamma has done what so far?

Why not the same amount of puzzlement at both?

I like this
You can be town too, for now

Black/Elements based on this post:

Reason: Black's attack is too visceral and emotional to c

o

me from a partner imo.

Elements you have 13 posts on this page. Can you chill

I did pre-emptively apologise

Why is your plan to spam the thread with a bunch of nothing posts?

Elements you have 13 posts on this page. Can you chill

I did pre-emptively apologise

Why is your plan to spam the thread with a bunch of nothing posts?

I feel you're being too dismissive of Elemental's posts, she's asked,

Does anyone else think it's scum indicating when someone isn't voting?

Defended you as town
Apologized for her playstyle

Constantly vote switching is confusing, I want to know why she switched to Nono, any explanation/elabaration is good
Even if it's "spam" she's observing, questioning, defending

At the time I had counted 9 relevant posts and 10 spammy ones. That's a lot of posts for two pages. Elements said she's bored with no impulse control so I'm just gonna let her do her thang

Kawaii/Kyo based on the following:

Reason: The way Kawaii brought attention to kyo's vote patterns was done in a very discrediting way to

c

ome from a partner.

VOTE: Nono

Why Nono?

To see if the null vote is to do with kyouko or nono

VOTE: nono

VOTE: Guillotina

Kyouko voted Nono then voted Guilotina, nulling her Nono vote

I'm not sure. Dunn's claim felt like a joke with it being the first post of the game. Kyouko's feels more real but I'm not familiar enough with her to tell if it's coming from scum

I feel Duun's claim is genuine, millers often claim miller in their opening posts. Duun's miller claim feels straight up, unlikely that mafia plays this directly. Kyouko feels real/potentially opportunistic, shielding herself behind the initial miller claim if she is mafia

VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko

Gamma/Elements based on the following

Reason: Question was formulated as a shade.

Gamma and Black probably town

Gamma has done what so far?

Why not the same amount of puzzlement at both?

I like this
You can be town too, for now

The post you are referring to is in response to me, so thinking we are the same slot would mean your reason for thinking Dave is town does not make sense

I think that us probably where the confusion came from
Your names being right next to each other and so relating to each other in my head. Then when I made the post where I called you town they got mixed up together

That seems odd
You didn’t question why someone would quote themself?

Hu Tao/Timmer based on this interaction

VT

I understand why people claim miller early on, but why throw out a VT claim on page 1? I'm coming to this site mostly from a background where claiming was against the rules, so I would love to hear how claiming this helps the town.

So scum will not target me and I can last till end game. I believe in myself to find scum as long as I'm alive long enough. Now I just need to be towny enough to not be voted out. I've eliminated half of the work.

Gamma/Random Nurse based on the following

Reason: RN's reaction to Gamma on the faking being a noob accusation was too personal and emotional for mafia/mafia

Is 4:13 the most likely breakdown with 17 players?

These questions get old real fast

Is 4:13 the most likely breakdown with 17 players?

These questions get old real fast

Well aren't you a peach.

I know who you are, so the act doesn't fool me.

Guillo/Kawaii based on this post

Reason: Guillo's question was formulated in a way to bring attention on Kawaii.

VOTE: Nono

Why Nono?

To see if the null vote is to do with kyouko or nono

VOTE: nono

VOTE: Guillotina

Kyouko voted Nono then voted Guilotina, nulling her Nono vote

And not her vote on me whom had not posted at the time?

Black/Guillo based on this post

My preliminary reads:

Town

Black
Kawaii

Mixed Feelings

Kyouko

Scum

Naerys
Hu
Gamma
Celebloki

Why do you have mixed feelings about kyouko?

VOTE: Kyouko

VOTE: Kyouko

Why did you 2 vote Kyouko?

I think she could be scum and I wanted a wagon

Not really liking Guillotina's unvote

I had been voting Guillo right before this but immediately unvoted when I saw the crumb.

...
. . .
Not gonna lie I didn't read those posts - I looked back at them a couple of times to see who he was saying couldnt be scum with who but I just wasnt going to read walls upon walls of preflip associations.

Kinda clever to put such an obvious crumb in such an unreadable post, it would excuse why he wasn't shot if he ever pointed it out or if any town ever found it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I didn't even read that time. I saw the bold capital I and I trust the rest is there. Jesus

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hu Tao actually dying is odd

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think it means there is no blocker, or it's meant to make us think there is no blocker. Killing Hu Tao acknowledges that she was confirmed town by RN. Which means scum aren't willing to play the "what if RN was blocked" card in ELO.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If there is no blocker the last scum could be a goon.

What do you think a Rolecop thinks if he sees "Doctor" when investigating Guillo? Probably Town since the only TPR that can kill in the setup is Babysitter. Our vig couldn't kill. And I just realized something because it came up in another game - scum can have vigilantes in complex normals. It would be weird to think RNs role is scum if rolecopped, but it is technically allowable under the complex rules. What I'm getting at is the rolecop had a lot of innos on town's side - and we've now seen a false inno flip from scum. Rolecop seems to be weaker than we gave it credit for.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Dave neighborizes were
N1: Dunn (failed)
N2: Enchant/Keyleth (success)
N3: BQ2 (success)

Thing is, Mafia Doctor was a way to provide a false inno versus RN's role I think. Doctor would supersede Bodyguard I'm pretty sure because the golden rule - the Bodyguard action doesn't result in the Bodyguard dying if the target is already protected by a Doc, so the Doc would stop the shot, RN would live, and if he targeted Doctored Mafia they would appear innocent. Likely scum tried this every night, but RN ended up targeting Guillo, so this was not effective.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I dont recall Andres' actions... it was I think
N1: No message
N2: FN Dunn
N3: no message was reported, but Andres died that Night.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Good morning, Hu Tao lied. She’s vanilla.

VOTE: Hu Tao

Celeb got a result on HT, but of course Roden was a Complex Alien, so he probably tried to alien HT to prevent them from doccing anyone.

Which means the N1 failure to neighborize Dunn was due to a PR - not an Alien - so Dunn is not a goon if scum.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Black, Celebloki, Andres, Davesaz, Hu Tao were the kills on nights 1-5. Roden died D2 and probably no Backup existed to continue blocking.

Black was scumreading Guillo. I think I had kinda agreed with her on D1, but I also think Gamma might have wanted me alive which might be why Black was shot over me (assuming she was shot for suspecting Guillo).

Celebloki was a rolecop, and had confirmed that Hu Tao was not a doctor, so scum went for Celebloki. They couldn't alien anymore because Roden was dead, so their hand was forced.

Andres died N3. I don't really remember his reads. I think he must have messaged Guillo, I remember him trying to play dumb about it, citing that because he died the message couldn't have come to him. This is mechanical error #1 by scum. I think maybe Andres was killed because Guillo didn't want to have to cross-confirm him and preclude a Dunn, Andres team from existing. Killing Andres keeps some suspicion on Dunn. Furthermore, Andres suspected Naerys's FN role. This reminds me, I made a wallpost on D1 that declared Naerys town and Hu Tao scum. Even if I did suspect Guillo then, he wasn't near the top of my scumreads. Davesaz and Enchant were. Dave has flipped town. My D1 reads were pretty bad except for scum!Gamma which I failed to capitalize on. I did find town!Black but she died. Not to focus on myself too much but I am a loud player. It could be that Black was going to be a grounding force for me and scum wanted to break that up so I could move forward pushing my wrong reads.

Next was Davesaz. We had gotten through all of the vanillas by lim and by neighborizing (and by rolecop) - so he was going for PRs next. Dunnstral had nothing to fear from Dave, he was already checked. Guillo had nothing to fear, he was PR. The only players that had reason to fear Dave were me and Naerys. RN would have too, so killing Dave then would further point to the PRs.

Finally was Hu Tao. I've already pointed this out, but in killing Hu Tao, scum have conceded that RN was never blocked. But here's the thing. Scum forgot that their doctor could provide a false inno - after the Guillo flip confirmed a mafia doctor, Hu Tao would be back on the table. This is mechanical error #2, and it's why Dunnstral, myself, and BQ2 are never scum here.

Most likely it is Naerys, but I guess it could be Enchant.

Naerys, Enchant - do either of you feel strongly that the other is town?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

There's also the very sus FN claim as evidence against her

[ssbm_Kyouko]

There are also no other x-shot roles flipped yet and both Naerys and Guillo claimed X-shot

Naerys targeting the doc was the scummiest thing

I'll trust town to decide if naerys isn't scum. But yeah, that should be the vote tomorrow. Sorry for repeating myself so many times.

I repeat kill Naerys tomorrow, she chained self to mafia claiming DOCTOR.


Naerys and fresh replacement may be reason why mafia didn't bother to skip kill, they are both just didn't knew hell about it.

I agree naerys is most sus

Naerys
Hu Tao
Broccoli Quest 2
Guillotina
Enchant
Dunnstral
ssbm_Kyouko

This is the alive list - 7 alive, 4 to hammer - Naerys, Hu Tao, BQ2 and I voted you

I trust your judgement tomorrow but please have naerys as the Elim tomorrow assuming pop is scum

Reading back some of Hu Tao's last words, she probably doesnt vote me in ELO, and she does want to kill Naerys toDay. If scum want Naerys to be mislimmed then leaving Hu Tao around and shooting BQ2, who I thought would be the kill, makes more sense

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I have decided
VOTE: Naerys

[ssbm_Kyouko]

BQ2's main is a person that I am ~fairly confident~ does not miss the fact that a doctor can provide a false inno to a Combined Bodyguard Disloyal Vigilante.

I know for a fact Dunn does not miss this. I am pretty sure that Dunn and BQ2 and maybe Naerys all know that I don't miss this. And obviously I didnt miss this since I pointed it out

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Okay.

Who mafia kill instead?

Dunn/Naerys? Laughable.
Me? Bruh.
You? Oh well, maybe? Unless you are mafia, then it always makes sense to attack Hu Tao then pull this argument up.


It doesn't work out.

BQ2 is the kill that makes the most sense to me going into N5. Someone that didn't understand that Hu Tao was NOT conftown made the decision to kill her last Night. That means you or Naerys - do you think Naerys is town? If so, why?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Laughable is the fact that you believe that scum would tie thenselves together like that. Kyou please think.
Do you think i would bus important buddy pr like that? Do you think i wiuld bus Guillo knowing that attention would immediately turn on me?
Meanwhile there is a slot that was not on either scum wagons and isnt really cooperative either.

I take it this means you don't think Enchant is town?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Right. I think the last scum is one of you two - if you're both town you need to find each other and convince one of the three of us who scum is imo

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm not going to listen to "why would scum tie themselves together" arguments - in he end it's just WIFOM. Scum was down 2 scum in 2 Days, one of which was probably their strongest PR. Scum were desperate starting D3.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So you think it's Enchant, which makes sense for you if you're town.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Wait it's real late I already had this train of thought and nixed it without posting it when I realized he was macho

UNVOTE:

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Well, hmm... I'm not sure how it would work. I think I was thinking (the first time I had this thought when Guillo.flipped) that Doctor could target RN to make all his targets look town, but when I remembered Macho I realized that doesnt work. Going to have to check with the mod.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@mod,

If RN and Guillotina, with their flipped roles and assuming no other interference, both targeted the same Mafia Goon on the same Night, would RN die or would he live? Assuming also that no other role/factional ability not mentioned tries to kill RN directly.

What im wondering is, would Guillo's Doctor take precedence over RN's Bodyguard, causing RN's vigilante bullet to be blocked before the bodyguard resolves? Meaning that the bullet would be gone and RN would live?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

TOWN
Your humble broccoli overlord
Enchant
Kyo
Naerys
Dunnstral
SCUM

Putting slot that wasnt on either scum wagons as 2nd town? Okay

Guillo was on both scum wagons iirc

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Guillo was on both scum wagons iirc

Yep. Thats why i am looking at those, that are out.

Spoiler: length

Spoiler: I drafted this but after VCA/reconsideration I disagree with the plan - here is what I had for anyone curious

Guillo - 2-shot something something doc
RN - combined bodyguard disloyal vig
Davesaz - simple neighborizer
Dunn - no mech ties to the living - did receive Andres' FN message
Kyouko - no mech ties
Naerys - FNed to Guillo

Vanillas (4 alive):
Hu Tao - confirmed vanilla
Enchant/BQ2 - at least one confirmed, both after dave flip
JV (Timmer) - unconfirmed, joins Enchant/BQ2 category after toMorrow if Dave neighborizes successfully
KK - flipped
Elements - flipped


10 alive, 8-2 now. Lim one, if town, move to 6-2 or be 1 town!RN down - will refer to these as evens/odds.

Evens (assuming neighborization works): 2 mislims moves to 4-2 MELO. If we stay in the PRs (assuming JV gets confirmed vanilla), we can kill 2 of {Guillo, RN, Davesaz, Dunn, Kyouko, Naerys} before having to make the potentially game-losing choice in MELO.
Naerys should never die before Guillo because if Guillo is mislimmed (not scum) it removes Naerys from the POE. Dave should be allowed at least one more Night to Neighborize JV -
In evens, there is still a possibilty that RN is scum - assuming he lives this long, he's either getting blocked or getting clears. I've been thinking on this a little - the Andres kill makes sense mechanically because he was the only one left that could help us confirm who, if anyone, was being aliened.
With him dead now, he can't speak up and say "actually I targeted X (not RN) so if they didn't receive the message it means RN can't have been blocked last Night because either X or I was blocked"

Odds: 2 mislims and RN dying leads to 3-2 ELO, where we can kill 2 of {Guillo, Davesaz, Dunn, Kyouko, Naerys} before the potentially game-losing mislim. Again with the Naerys/Guillo thing, thats 2 of {Guillo, Davesaz, Dunn, Kyouko} and if both are misses then ELO is a 1v1 between the last 2 - no way are 2 (more) vanillas scum here I think, unless that's been the whole point of the setup.

Replaced all old names with current slot owners
D1 final:

KawaiiKame

-

Andresvmb

, Dunnstral, Kyouko,

Gamma

,

Black

,

Elements

, Naerys, JacksonVirgo,

Celebloki

Gamma

- Hu Tao, Guillotina
Enchant - dave,

KawaiiKame

ssbm_Kyouko -

Roden

Hu Tao - Broccoli Quest 2
not voting - Random Nurse, Enchant

D2 final:

Roden

- Broccoli Quest 2, Dunnstral, Kyouko, davesaz, Hu Tao, Guillotina,

Elements

, Naerys
Hu Tao - Random Nurse,

Roden

Elements

- Enchant,

Andresvmb

not voting - JacksonVirgo,

Celebloki

D3 final:

Elements

-

Andresvmb

, Hu Tao, ssbm_Kyouko, Dunnstral, Naerys, JacksonVirgo,

Elements

JacksonVirgo - Guillotina, Enchant, Broccoli Quest 2
not voting - Random Nurse, davesaz

Also looking at final VCs for quick patterns -
Hu Tao was on unlimmed scum D1 and on the D2(scum)/D3(town) final wagons: +town for being on scum on D1 and then joins in on the townblocking (below) after D1
Dunnstral, Kyouko, and Naerys on all 3 final wagons: inconclusive - though I know I'm town, I TR Naerys, and Naerys has the FN claim - so this is probably just townblocking
JV on both town wagons (D1/D3) - not voting when scum dies on D2: ++scum

Guillotina on scum D1 and on the scum wagon D2 - off both town wagons: +town/TMI, I suspect the claim but not necessarily the play as far as I can remember. Need to self-ISO.

Dave/BQ2 - off town, on scum, off town on D1/D2/D3: +town/TMI, but I TR BQ2 independently - dave could be TMI without looking at context of votes and recalling my general suspicion of his D1 play.
Random Nurse - not voting, off scum (voting HT with Roden), not voting: +slightly scum
Enchant - Not voting (was Keyleth at this point), off scum, off town: +slightly scum

I think, in a shocking new twist, I am going to ditch my mech plan as I've already been bitten in the ass once by Gamma in this game and accept this is not an Open setup and nothing is guaranteed, even less so when Jingle is the mod and it's a "complex" game.

I am down for JV or RN toDay. I suspect Andres was killed to allow scum!RN to get by claiming he could have been blocked. Aside from that his voting patterns are poor, but no worse than Enchant's. JV has the worst voting patterns at end of day, and I've already individually cased Timmer before him, and I think by both Timmer's play and the catchup is the most likely to flip scum. BQ2 has also been my town "rock" since Black died and he has been on the correct wagons all 3 Days and now he is pushing for JV, I'm going to go with it. Not as a sheep because I'm the one that originally cased Timmer, but as like a townblocking thing. Hopefully Dunn, Naerys, Hu Tao will all join this, JV will flip scum, and we'll have a solid voting block/towncore to move forward with

VOTE: JacksonVirgo

Look at the green text (not the names in the VCs but later). My point is that scum!Guillo voted with 100% accuracy for the first few days to the point it was either town with really good reads or just TMI. I don't think Enchant being off the scum wagons is really that bad by itself

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Whom i really wish to praise is kyouko. Amazing and strong and smart town player!

I do agree Kyo also played well. GG.

aww <3

Really sorry about the timing at which I left. This was a really fun game if I remember right. I was definitely sad to have to step out of it without seeing it all the way through. Thanks everyone, especially Jingle for modding!

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Whom i really wish to praise is kyouko. Amazing and strong and smart town player!

I do agree Kyo also played well. GG.

aww <3

Really sorry about the timing at which I left. This was a really fun game if I remember right. I was definitely sad to have to step out of it without seeing it all the way through. Thanks everyone, especially Jingle for modding!

You've been missed. Are you going to play again?

Yeah, I think I'm going to be busy for the next couple of months though so I'll probably start slow with 1-3 games depending on player counts