Mini Normal 2326 | Everything has exploded !

[Dannflor]

I mean I think in general scum tend to be more static and less fluid in their reads, that's the common trend in my opinion. I think making a big case on someone then immediately backing off is like, not the intuitive scum move vs. tunneling someone

uhh basically, I'm trying very hard as town to improve my read accuracy and that means not just sticking to the first scum read if I get good evidence to the contrary

[Vivax]

I mean I think in general scum tend to be more static and less fluid in their reads, that's the common trend in my opinion. I think making a big case on someone then immediately backing off is like, not the intuitive scum move vs. tunneling someone

uhh basically, I'm trying very hard as town to improve my read accuracy and that means not just sticking to the first scum read if I get good evidence to the contrary

That's fair but you have to occasionally draw a line in the sand and make your reads appear static. Otherwise you might as well not have any at all.

You'd get max reaction out of scum if you included a few of them in your guesses, but you also have to keep those guesses alive for a while to keep them reacting. I don't see why I can't rest my feet on my current tv table of guesses for a while without being accused of being too static.

[Oatsmaster]

I mean I think in general scum tend to be more static and less fluid in their reads, that's the common trend in my opinion. I think making a big case on someone then immediately backing off is like, not the intuitive scum move vs. tunneling someone

uhh basically, I'm trying very hard as town to improve my read accuracy and that means not just sticking to the first scum read if I get good evidence to the contrary

Im not really sure how this isn’t replicable in your scum play even from your perspective considering it’s just
Step 1: case a townie that you know can defend themselves
Step 2: flip off them when they inevitably reply.
Step 3: make the exact same arguments you are making right now.

Especially because you seem insanely aware that you are doing that on purpose.

[Dannflor]

I guess it's more that your attitude seems to be that you've decided to have these reads almost out of spite, rather than it being something you really believe in and want to show everyone else

maybe that's a misread but when you use phrases like "can't make me" it feels like the point is to be stubborn and static, not to actually solve the game

[Dannflor]

sure, i could, that's the problem with self-meta. I think I'd be more self-conscious as scum and would either feel to awkward to make that swap or would do so more awkwardly but your mileage may vary

I accept it's probably not a ridiculous reason to scum read me especially if you aren't familiar with me

[Vivax]

I guess it's more that your attitude seems to be that you've decided to have these reads almost out of spite, rather than it being something you really believe in and want to show everyone else

maybe that's a misread but when you use phrases like "can't make me" it feels like the point is to be stubborn and static, not to actually solve the game

You are probably familiar with the ash experiment. I need an increased inner conviction to internally counter that most of you don't share my reads.

[Grackaroni]

by the way, Ninja, if Roden is mafia here, I don't think it's wise to assume that his scum buddies would exclusively be in the slots defending him

I would expect at least one of his buddies to be soft pushing him or keeping him in their suspect pool given his relative absence and widespread suspicion

I've considered that. But Hu Tao has not said anything about Roden at all and they could easily do this soft pushing / keeping in the suspect pool. And as for Vivax, his actions are just so hard for me to understand in a general sense. He kinda blows all of my "it makes sense for a person to do X in this situation" out of the water. It could be one of those "too obvious and too blatant to be real" sorts of things.

I admit it's a little shaky from that perspective, but I'm generally just following where my reads on people are taking me.

I liked your recent reads post in general.

I think it's a good sign that your reasoning for suspecting Vivax is the same as what made you question me on my initial reads.

I think Vivax is actually more likely to post the way you're describing as town than as scum though. As town he has a history of getting quite paranoid and will give reads that seem out there/don't seem to make any sense. As scum I think he's more conscious of his image and realizes that he doesn't want to alienate himself from people that will be town leaders.

[Vivax]

I'll have to hedge on DP being town because he is usually very good at wrestling thread control and being the dominant voice, and I couldn't see him doing that yet.

There could be a bunch of town reasons for that like his dates, Bday etc. but I hope that it will eventually show. I'm not used to him looking so comfortable with not having a large degree of control. In my last few games where he was town he was far from having a laissez-faire attitude.

[Dannflor]

i think my gut wants to put vivax as town and DP as scum

I can't really substantiate that beyond vague feelings when I scroll through their ISOs though

[outoforder]

Grack are you around in about 3hrs or so?

[Vivax]

Im gonna say that unless Ninja is portraying a character that isnt real in which case I think shed be playing more mafia, shes town.
I dont think it makes much sense to say the things shes said if she were mafia. especially the stuff regarding the game getting too personal.

Yeah she's probably town. She seems very self-aware of herself but when she makes posts she makes mistakes, like very obvious mistakes that contradict with what she has said before.
For instance, she puts Dunnstral in scum column in her list post, then posts reasons why he is mafia and says he is null.

I find it very unlike that someone who seems so self-aware (even if you read her as scum this is true so it would apply also if she's town) gives people ammunition like this to attack her. As mafia i would say with 90% certainty she would be very careful and definitely more likely to keep her story straight.

This read reeks a bit of TMI. It's convenient for OoO to not have to push Ninja when he can go after me or Roden. I had similar thoughts on gob but if I compare gob with ninja, one has a idgaf attitude and the other is more intent on keeping up a good image.

[Grackaroni]

Grack are you around in about 3hrs or so?

No I'll be here for around another hour and a half. Then on later at night.

[Vivax]

Having caught up, I'm starting to town-lean Vivax again based on his recent posts. I just think if he's scum then he's making life unnecessarily difficult for himself.

I have a soft town-lean on Gob, which perhaps I will elaborate on earlier.

Dann and ninja are still clearly town
Outoforder is most probably town too
I think Oats and Darth punk are town, but am less confident
Then comes Gob and Dunn, who are soft Town-leans. Maybe Grackaroni too, but I need to see more.

The only clear scumread I have right now is Roden. The other slots haven't left much of an impression on me yet.

When I look at this post I become uncomfortable. It is unusually confident and the type of post I'd make as mafia since it's very sentiment based.

Dann, this didn't bother you but my three guesses did? How so.

What if I floated a Dann/Luca/x scenario?

[Dannflor]

The main thing I'm bothered about by Luca is that he hasn't really pushed anything himself and doesn't have any strong scum reads outside of the consensus Roden

[Vivax]

Spoiler:

My case on Order is void at atp, I didn't like their early interactions with Luca and Vivax but 451 turned my opinion around. I vibe with the mentality "I only post what I feel I need to" and tonally I feel that their posting has gotten a lot better.

UNVOTE:

I also had some reservations about Dann, at one point it looked like he may have been trying to pocket me with posts like 332 and when he was hard defending me while writing his case against Ninja. I think he ultimately is town though for later backing up a bit and concluding that he might've been too hasty, I think if he were scum he would just stick to town reading me and leaving it at that.

Luca I think is spewed town for being unable to discern that I was mimicking Oats' play and behavior when interacting with him and then not knowing that me calling them scum was a joke. They've overall been fairly townie and strike me as someone who's got a decent grasp on the game.

Ninja at first seemed similar to Luca, but the more I interacted with her and then saw some of her later posts, the more I think she's just playing with an agenda to elim people rather than scum hunt. Her insistence on arguing that I'm wrong about my own thoughts and intentions reads more as gaslighting rather than someone who's actually try to solve my alignment. 499 doubles down on this and is very tonally manipulative.

VOTE: Ninja

I really don't get this vote, when Ninja put forth a lot of insightful analysis in 499 that has gone unrecognised by Roden, who is zoning in primarily on things that directly involve him. I also don't see the gaslighting/manipulation, so perhaps you can point that out for me (unless you already have, as I'm still slowly catching-up).

I also am a little confused as to why not realising you were mimicking oats/not being serious when calling me scum spews me as town?

When going through his ISO I'm mostly looking for his reasons for being so sure Roden is scum and while backreading this shows up.
Yet he prefers to talk about me or other controversial matters or what makes people town instead of corroborating why exactly he is so sure Roden is mafia.

So why does Luca think Roden is mafia?
Not going to lie the spew as town part is really odd.

[outoforder]

Vivax, are YOU around in ~3hrs?

[Vivax]

Vivax, are YOU around in ~3hrs?

I suppose I as in capital I am likely to be around in 3 hrs.

[gob]

dannfloor use my powers i beg you

[gob]

dannceiling

[outoforder]

Okay, i get off work around that time. I am going to consider you confirmed town for the time being. Let's go through players and share thoughts. I know your opinion is valuable in case you are town. After that you can think whatever you think of me and vice versa.

[gob]

dannceiling

im so prooud of this one its quite humorous

[Dannflor]

i snorted

[Vivax]

i farted on the dancefloor

[Vivax]

viewtopic.php?p=13486823#p13486823

The French still hate me for this

[Grackaroni]

I am more amicable and diplomatic as mafia. I rarely take risks. I think if I had to pick my mafia version for this game it would be much more similar to how Luca Blight plays.
Maybe I should scumread him after all.

I can get behind this read.

Luca's posts are all very logical but there's something that feels off about it to me. He posts a light suspicion of Dann and then says that Dann is clear town after seeing his first case. Similarly he posts some things concerning him about DP/OoO, but then comes around pretty quickly to both of them being townie. He's not at all worried that a stronger player could have rolled mafia and his posts just feel rather safe.