Mini Normal 2327: Bird Species (Game Over)

[Hu Tao]

Hi.

[Hu Tao]

Am I the only one who got 4 PM's about gamestart

I thought I had friends wanting to talk to me, instead I got the same pm 4 times

[Hu Tao]

Any consensus on the expected number of Scum members this game?

I'm thinking it's safe to assume it's 3.

Don't bitch about me asking.

Going to bed now, and will be up later this evening. No quickhammers either.

VOTE: nurse

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: black

Lets get rid of Black. Unironically. She is a good scum player and too hard to catch.

Is she also a good town player? If no, your point makes sense. If yes, we can give her a chance and execute only if there are no other options.

Seriously. She has been good and friendly to me so far and I don't want to eliminate her without reason.

This is adorable

[Hu Tao]

I didn't ignore your vote, I gave you a halo emoji. If you want actual thoughts then I think you're gonna have a hard time policy limming me

Not really a policy lim

That's exactly what it is. You want to fade me because I'm good at scum and I fooled you in previous games as opposed to wanting to fade me for things I've done in this game

First time?

[Hu Tao]

I know what he posted.

I'm asking you why you're assuming he's town who wants to kill you for being good at mafia rather than mafia trying to push you for an excuse

This is true

[Hu Tao]

BTW, is there anything we deduce from the text on Snowy Owl?
3 threats (human activity, climate change, decline in species they hunt) = 3 scums?
Or based on your experience here it's just a text with no hints?

Nice to meet you, Snow. Glad to see you got a green pm

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: black sheeping gob

VOTE: cakez

[Hu Tao]

OMGUS failure from Black

more evidence to lim her

[Hu Tao]

D1 threadplays are worthless.

VOTE: Black

What's thread play mean

[Hu Tao]

My take on the black vote so far. In the only game I've played with scum black she was sus from the beginning and something felt off. I don't sense that so far. Not saying i think she's town or anything but I don't scumread her so far.

[Hu Tao]

I think cakes vote seemed weird though. And nurses post seemed forced that I quoted. I'm fine with either of them being the elimination so far

[Hu Tao]

I think snow is newbie town from her posts so far

[Hu Tao]

I think snow is newbie town from her posts so far

His*

[Hu Tao]

Can I be newbie town too?

No

[Hu Tao]

Will we have a morning newspaper/description with night events or smth like that? Or just "X is dead".

How familiar are you with the game of mafia? Like besides this site?

[Hu Tao]

I think cakes vote seemed weird though. And nurses post seemed forced that I quoted. I'm fine with either of them being the elimination so far

What do you find weird about the cakes vote? Do you still think that in context of their interactions?

Just that he says he's sheeping gob, but gobs vote really was just based off past experiences not this game

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: [/no elimination]

Why do you think this is the best option?

[Hu Tao]

First impressions on what happened so far.

I feel like the manner Gob has gone about the early game feels fairly aggressive in a manner that I wouldn't expect to come from scum this early into the day. I don't really agree with his rationale for limming Black here (at least on the base level of "policy lim" probs going to read through Black again afterwards to clarify my thoughts there).

Think so far I feel the worst about Nurse. From what I know of him they can be pretty aggressive at times in tone but their exchange with STD feels like there is a defensive undertone underneath there that's pinging me at the moment

Any consensus on the expected number of Scum members this game?

count the number of names in your pm

And what did you think you'd gain from your weak attempt at casting shade at me, STD?

I want you to explain your intention.

Fine.

We'll see how much it was "just a joke" as the this Day wears on.

VOTE: Random Nurse

My brain also pinged a slight bit at NotaScum's vote on 94 due to its position on the wagon and for being a bit of a sheep vote, but I realized it's not really fair to isolate it due to other votes on the wagon feeeling similar.

I mostly agree with what you're saying. Especially with RN

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: [/no elimination]

In general it's worse for town to no-eliminate.

This is probs not the best explanation as to why, but think of the elimination as a town-controlled killing source. Scum have the ability to kill players during the night eliminating from the game and getting them one step closer to winning by doing so. Given that most of us here are town the elimination serves as a way to counter scum night-kills given that the town can generally agree on who scum is. Therefore it's going to be a bad idea to forgo that in most situations as town.

Right, but this is now an overly random voting (at least for me). I have never played a forum mafia game where people voted before night 1. Hope we will have more date at day 2.

Never mind my question, this answers it. Do you find anyone that seems fake so far?

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: black sheeping gob

VOTE: cakez

This is towny from Cakex actually

Why?

[Hu Tao]

BTW, is there anything we deduce from the text on Snowy Owl?
3 threats (human activity, climate change, decline in species they hunt) = 3 scums?
Or based on your experience here it's just a text with no hints?

Nice to meet you, Snow. Glad to see you got a green pm

Uhhhh


isnt this a slip?

Yes. Since i got a red pm, I know that he got a green pm. You caught me

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: random nurse

I'm going back to this for now. I'm always wrong on cakez so I'll let the vote slide for now

[Hu Tao]

Never mind my question, this answers it. Do you find anyone that seems fake so far?

I don't like votes vs Black.
Gob started with previous experience (looked like a fear or revenge vote for me), but then read Black's text(s) as scummy (I don't).
Cakez switch votes from T1 to Black (no matter whom to lim? smells scummy for me) explaining that he followed Gob (I usually don't follow others that early, some people do, so alright, but why not wait until Gob's vote if it is so authoritative?), but then claimed that Black is scummy (again, don't see it).
Other 2 votes (NotAScum and T1) with little to no reasons. Interestingly T1 did not target Cakez for quick vote switch, but also went after Black.

If Black is townie, can there be 3 scums in this group of 4? Unlikely. 2 scums? Yes, may be. But probably at least 1 scum there.
If Black is scum, can there be 2 scums in this group? Quite unlikely. 1 scum - may be, to distance from Black. No scums - also possible.

There is a reasonable chance that in any scenario we have at least 1 scum between these 4, but there can also be none (as well as 2), so I don't think that this warrant a change in my vote.

Things here seem to rest on how we see Black. OMGUS arguments against her don't look plausible. She has not switched her vote to one of those 4. (I would have probably done so had I been in her position.) Why has not she? Townie who wants to test people's reaction to this train? Scum who doesn't want to attack the train, since there is (are) fellow scum(s) there? All quite speculative at this stage.

Travelling for the rest of the day, so will not be until late at night.

Really good analysis. Glad my first instinct was right on you

[Hu Tao]

Good luck with your date

[Hu Tao]

You should have brought up your extensive mafiascum history and prestige. Always next time

[Hu Tao]

Thank you for the mafiascum lesson

[Hu Tao]

My issue with gob is I can see this type of push coming from either alignment. If he's town then he's worried I'll beat him again and also I think there's a possibility he just exaggerates his confidence in this read out of spite just to get me faded. If he's scum then the "fear vote" is an easy reason to hide behind while he just endlessly pushes me and works backwards to justify it. If he's scum then I think one of NotAScum/T3 is also scum helping with the push

My only pause with you is that you've kinda said this already about gob like 3 different times. Just in different wording

[Hu Tao]

Either way, I think nurse is still the best vote right now based off what I said earlier

[Hu Tao]

Either way, I think nurse is still the best vote right now based off what I said earlier

do you have a lot of experience with Random Nurse?

I've played with him a bit but not as scum I dont think

[Hu Tao]

Either way, I think nurse is still the best vote right now based off what I said earlier

do you have a lot of experience with Random Nurse?

I've played with him a bit but not as scum I dont think

ok and is he like no defensive when he's town?

It's more that I think it's forced

[Hu Tao]

Seems like this gamestate favors scum

One wagon in four days and a lot of people are just lurking doing nothing and no one really seems to care

So do you think more scum are lurkers?

[Hu Tao]

Yeah same

[Hu Tao]

It's more that I think it's forced

can you give like a comparison between what you're seeing here and what you've seen in past games with him that led you to this conclusion?

It's not meta related, it's more that I think the most in general made by anyone sounds forced. But I mean there isn't much to go on so far. That's why it's my vote

[Hu Tao]

Black is likely town BTW. This is how I expect her to act as town.

[Hu Tao]

how do you even vig an SK

By PMing the mod to shoot them

[Hu Tao]

Black is likely town BTW. This is how I expect her to act as town.

can you give more specifics/words to this read?

She has a habit of acting a certain way as town rather than scum. I'd rather not say exactly what it is so I can use it in the future. But both games I've played where she was scum I called her scum day 1.

[Hu Tao]

I'm fine with voting NotAScum. Kinda just want to do something, this game feels dead

[Hu Tao]

But why

[Hu Tao]

[Hu Tao]

This post by Snow is incredibly townie and shows that he's thinking about the game on a deep level. Especially all the partnered stuff

He's been town since like 3 pages in but I agree

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: Hu Tao

Anime avatars are scum tricks. I'll not give into such deceptions.

Is this because I said I'd vote you

[Hu Tao]

I think cakes vote seemed weird though. And nurses post seemed forced that I quoted. I'm fine with either of them being the elimination so far

What do you find weird about the cakes vote? Do you still think that in context of their interactions?

Just that he says he's sheeping gob, but gobs vote really was just based off past experiences not this game

I know this is super old at this point, but came back on it during my reread and felt it needed to be addressed. The reason for voting cakez is as weak as the reason you're using for the vote itself. People sheep all the time for worse reasons. The fact that it was post 59 and therefore still RVS makes this look like a reason to vote, not a reason to scumread.

Tbf that was a long time ago and I always scumread cakes in every game we've been in together which is why I said what I said. I don't think he's on my list to vote at the moment

[Hu Tao]

Either way, I think nurse is still the best vote right now based off what I said earlier

Just to clarify, this is based strictly off of the fact that you thought one of his posts was forced?

Yes. It's not like much has happened since then. I think I'd rather NotAScum right now though

[Hu Tao]

But both games I've played where she was scum I called her scum day 1.

Can you link these? Not sure what you call 3p, but you didn't say a word about Black on D1 in 901, and you weren't in the game where her and T3 were scum. Interested in seeing your interactions with her in the games you're referencing.

In the Mason pt I said I was weary of her. Didn't want to say it in the thread since I was a jailkeeper

[Hu Tao]

But both games I've played where she was scum I called her scum day 1.

Can you link these? Not sure what you call 3p, but you didn't say a word about Black on D1 in 901, and you weren't in the game where her and T3 were scum. Interested in seeing your interactions with her in the games you're referencing.

viewtopic.php?t=92212

This is the other game. Ironically I was jailkeeper again and blocked her n1.

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: NotAScum

[Hu Tao]

Random Nurse - unsure, leaning sus. Could just be busy
NotAScum - Is a scum
Hu Tao - Hu Taown
SmileyDude1 - Towny
Black - towny
T3 - idk
gob - gob
SirCakez - idk
Naerys - idk
Snow2697 - towniest town to ever town
shaddowez - towny based on lady interaction
Aristeia - towny
Save the Dragons - idk

[Hu Tao]

This is where I am atm

[Hu Tao]

UNVOTE: Hu Tao

Need to read the last few pages. But I'm in favor of no exile on D1.

As soon as people stop questioning me, you unvote, how convenient

[Hu Tao]

OK so one thing I do want to ask is why people are pressing for a no-lim Day 1. Is it just me or does that not make any sense?

I just assume they are joking. Snow is new so he may not know why it's not optimal

[Hu Tao]

I'll catch up tomorrow

[Hu Tao]

T3->NotScum->Nurse------->Black--> (everyone else not in my keep category)

This would describe where i'm at in terms of priority launch order right now.

My thoughts about T3 212 still hold up. I'm not sure what to make of there 449 walkback. Gut instinct, it feels bad to me to 180 on their position given the other posts within the ISO but I probs need to think on it more.

I'm taking NotScum's 464 as a sign they may become easier to get a read on from day 2 onward (otherwise they'd probs be on the same rank as T3 for not providing much to work with)


VOTE: T3

I didn't realize NotAScum was new too. So I'm willing to give him more time. I'm fine with t3

VOTE: t3

[Hu Tao]

I'm getting some newtown vibes from NAS suddenly

VOTE: T3

This ISO is awful. More votes here please

Yeah I agree. Idk if NAS is giving Newtown vibes but I think he's new and didn't know about no Elim day 1 being bad

[Hu Tao]

honestly std has been bugging me
more than black


anyone want to vote std?

I'd rather vote t3

[Hu Tao]

I'm not really inclined to believe T3's AtE. He just faked it as scum in shadd's game

I just remembered he used AtE in exactly the same way, saying he always gets run up as town. He was lurky scum in that game that didn't give many reads and wasn't trying to solve. Seems familiar

If he's done this before as scum I think we vote him then

[Hu Tao]

Oh we only have 1 day left. Sorry I have been checked out this game

[Hu Tao]

I'm still fine with t3 but I'm okay switching if needed.

Snow who do you scumread the most?

[Hu Tao]

Umm I'm okay with cakes or t3. I'll be here before deadline

[Hu Tao]

Why is she town here?

[Hu Tao]

I agree just claim now we are running low on time

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: Cakez

[Hu Tao]

[ post] number [ /post]

Without the spaces

[Hu Tao]

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: no lim

?

[Hu Tao]

Well I was here in case of a hammer needed.

VOTE: t3

Just in case.

[Hu Tao]

I'm assuming cakes was the vigilante shot. Which is fair

[Hu Tao]

I guess I'll wait for everyone to check in

[Hu Tao]

I'm assuming cakes was the vigilante shot. Which is fair

Why are you assuming this

Because I'm scum and I know clearly

[Hu Tao]

I mean look at how yesterday went. It's pretty obvious. The fact you even said it like that is sus.

[Hu Tao]

VOTECOUNT 1.10

T3 (7)

- Black, SirCakez, Random Nurse, SmileyDude1, Naerys, Aristeia, shaddowez

SirCakez (4)

- Save the Dragons, T3, Hu Tao, gob

No Elimination (1)

- Snow2697

Not Voting (1)

- NotAScum

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2024-02-26 01:12:53).

I'm dead. This means none of us were on scum LMFAO

[Hu Tao]

I mean we just finished a game where scum killed one of the top D1 suspects so I'm not sure why you're making this assumption

Look how many suspected cakes. Why would scum kill them. You're better than this so that's why I'm saying this.

[Hu Tao]

I mean look at how yesterday went. It's pretty obvious. The fact you even said it like that is sus.

This feels awkwardly defensive

Maybe I should have listened to gob day 1, cause what do you mean?

[Hu Tao]

Scum is probably controlling the game. I'll need to go back and look cause I wasn't as checked in as I should have been yesterday toward the end

[Hu Tao]

VOTECOUNT 1.10

T3 (7)

- Black, SirCakez, Random Nurse, SmileyDude1, Naerys, Aristeia, shaddowez

SirCakez (4)

- Save the Dragons, T3, Hu Tao, gob

No Elimination (1)

- Snow2697

Not Voting (1)

- NotAScum

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2024-02-26 01:12:53).

I'm dead. This means none of us were on scum LMFAO

Yeah that seems about right considering scum were allowed to sit around and do nothing D1

Do you think scum is lurkers?

[Hu Tao]

I mean we just finished a game where scum killed one of the top D1 suspects so I'm not sure why you're making this assumption

Look how many suspected cakes. Why would scum kill them. You're better than this so that's why I'm saying this.

I literally just mentioned a game we were both in where scum killed Delta N1 because they thought she was a PR

Cut the cheap shots, it's a bad look for you

Oh right. But I don't remember delta being the counter wagon there. Maybe I'm wrong though

[Hu Tao]

I mean we just finished a game where scum killed one of the top D1 suspects so I'm not sure why you're making this assumption

Look how many suspected cakes. Why would scum kill them. You're better than this so that's why I'm saying this.

I literally just mentioned a game we were both in where scum killed Delta N1 because they thought she was a PR

Cut the cheap shots, it's a bad look for you

What are you gonna do about it? Vote me?

[Hu Tao]

Black and HT, would you two explain what were you doing last night?

We went on a girls night out

[Hu Tao]

Final solve*: RN/Naerys/StD

*This is based purely on wagon analysis with no other evidence provided. Final does not mean final, and can and will change. Use at your own risk. The author of this statement takes no responsibility for the elimination of innocent townies based on others actions, even if they are done based on this obviously perfect determination.

But why

[Hu Tao]

I mean we just finished a game where scum killed one of the top D1 suspects so I'm not sure why you're making this assumption

Look how many suspected cakes. Why would scum kill them. You're better than this so that's why I'm saying this.

I literally just mentioned a game we were both in where scum killed Delta N1 because they thought she was a PR

Cut the cheap shots, it's a bad look for you

What are you gonna do about it? Vote me?

You're a goober

[Hu Tao]

I killed SorCakez

Why wouldn't you kill black

[Hu Tao]

I think smiley is town based on day 1 still

[Hu Tao]

Snow is town imo but I'm surprised she wasn't the night kill

[Hu Tao]

D1 threadplays are pretty much worthless. I'm more interested in what you guys did last night.

What did you do last night?

[Hu Tao]

And of course today's threadplay is going to be interesting. Get your stories consistent.

Do you have a guilty check on Hu?

Why would you assume this?

[Hu Tao]

What did you do last night?

slept well

Do you have a guilty check on Hu?

Why are you role fishing

[Hu Tao]

You're saying that you think he has a guilty on me. But he named you too. Which would imply you think he has a guilty on you?

[Hu Tao]

Ok so one of gob/Snow is confscum

I actually disagree. Gob could have just been trying to take the kill from scum and let the vigilante stay alive. But then again I fake claim a lot so what do I know

[Hu Tao]

I am the Vig. I killed Cakez. Gob is scum.

VOTE: Gob

I would say in the future let it play out a bit longer. I think you were in no threat of being voted here

[Hu Tao]

Awfully quick of Black to vote gob without giving the guy a chance to explain. Also I doubt a real vig would outright claim vig when they can just kill the imposter during night

Agreed actually if they thought they were scum

[Hu Tao]

Awfully quick of Black to vote gob without giving the guy a chance to explain. Also I doubt a real vig would outright claim vig when they can just kill the imposter during night

I cannot kill at N2. Had I remained silent and been killed at N2, Gob's claim would have been unchallenged.

I think Snow is telling the truth here

Snow is clearly the vigilante but I think both can be town still

[Hu Tao]

NAS might be a gob partner

Guess you're thinking it's me gob and NAS now

[Hu Tao]

Okay i think the team is snow and black + someone else.

Anyway there is no reason to lim Snow here today. Lets get Black.

Oh wait. You're actually hard claiming vig?

[Hu Tao]

I think it's pretty obvious that Snow is telling the truth and that gob is trying to fade someone not named Snow because a one-shot Vig isn't that big of a threat to him

Agreed. Guess you were actually right

[Hu Tao]

gob makes a lot of tongue in cheek posts. I didn't even take his cakez claim seriously at first

So did I at first. But he did not retract his "kill Cakez" statement. And Black and Shaddowez, may be Hu Tao, seemed to take his statement as a vig claim. So I thought I had to challenge.
BTW, I still consider it possible for Black and Gob to be scums.

Yeah I agree. I thought he was fake claiming. I'm surprised Black didn't think that at first

[Hu Tao]

Why does it feel like only 5 people are playing the game. Let's wait for others to check in then vote gob

[Hu Tao]

What if there are two vigs who both shot cakez

Galaxy brain

[Hu Tao]

NotAScum asked a question: "How did gob figure out the vig killed cakez".
You answered this question: "If gob is scum then he knows the scum team killed Ari".
So, your answer assumes that Gob is scum, since otherwise he could not have known who was N1 vig victim.
I disagree with you. There is no reason IMO why scums would kill T3 and why a vig would kill Ari. Therefore an no-vig town Gob could have figured out who killed whom.

This is true

[Hu Tao]

I have a feeling that one of these people trying to pair me with gob is actually a gob partner posturing to push me once he flips scum

I can also see this being the case

[Hu Tao]

Gut pinging on Gob and Black.

VOTE: Black

Then why not just vote gob?

[Hu Tao]

RN is quieter than usual. He is more active in other games. This isn't a good look.

Also HT is trying to stay completely under the radar. I think the third scum is between these two

How am I trying to stay under the radar? I clearly have been asleep since my last post. This seems sus

[Hu Tao]

"one of Snow/gob is scum and I think it's gob, but I'm going to vote for the player I think could be gob's scumbuddy"

This isn't a townie thought progression

I agree!

[Hu Tao]

I can see Gob/RN here

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: Gob

[Hu Tao]

How am I trying to stay under the radar? I clearly have been asleep since my last post. This seems sus

you posted a decent amount last day and was almost completely absent today, at least from the beginning of the day till now. It seems you're trying to stay out of attention until theres a wagon formed on others. Now that everyones attention is on gob or black, you feel safe to post

Maybe you missed this post

Why does it feel like only 5 people are playing the game. Let's wait for others to check in then vote gob

This was my last post

[Hu Tao]

Clearly I did want others to check in and have their opinions on things before we vote gob

[Hu Tao]

Snow was lock town since day 1 imo. If he's scum I'll be shocked

[Hu Tao]

What are the odds of rn and black being tvt and scum is actually not saying much as NAS said

[Hu Tao]

Also what was the benefit of gob claiming right now. Did he think his partner would get heat today or something?

[Hu Tao]

RN is always paranoid. So he could actually be town here. I won't rule it out. NAS I'm unsure

[Hu Tao]

Hm.

Gut's screaming at me that it's Black and she simply cannot abide.

That said, if you want to launch between Gob and Snow have at it. I'd be more inclined to launch Gob currently, pending further scrutiny.

Remember when your gut kept screaming at me I was scum and I was town. Try to think in a world black is town for a bit

[Hu Tao]

Hm.

Gut's screaming at me that it's Black and she simply cannot abide.

That said, if you want to launch between Gob and Snow have at it. I'd be more inclined to launch Gob currently, pending further scrutiny.

Remember when your gut kept screaming at me I was scum and I was town. Try to think in a world black is town for a bit

Yeah, well, you're a special bundle.

[Hu Tao]

Why is Hu scummy for voting for gob?

she didn't explain gob vote reasoning in detail, feels like just jumping on the train. also the vote no 4/5 should be scrutinised more. After 3 votes, the wagon can be considered stable and safe to jump on

You mean when I said snow was town like 10 times day 1

[Hu Tao]

sus people:
gob
NotAScum
RN
StD

Town:
Smiley
Snow

Hu,Black,shaddowez are null

I agree with those 2 town. I'd add black to town too.

Naerys prob town this game since she's making sense with her reads

[Hu Tao]

Gob + Black + Hu Tao?

Could be. Makes sense to me.

I trusted you

[Hu Tao]

Why do you think I'm scum?

[Hu Tao]

Snow was lock town since day 1 imo. If he's scum I'll be shocked

I have read the exchange. A couple of thoughts.

Re the quote above. How can I be lock town since D1? Townish? Probably. But look, it's my first game here. No-one knows me, my meta (if any), how I play as scum or town, how I play when I have time and when I don't, when I understand the rules and process and when I don't, when I am engaged or not. And so on.
Now imagine that I am scum. Would anything I have done or written on D1 be inconsistent with my scummy self?

What puzzles me is that Gob warned me that Black was trying to pre-pocket me. Now I am called lock town. No warning from Gob. RN is right that Gob-Black conflict is a theatre?

I think this is my issue for now. If Gob is town, he attacks Black. And Black is adamant at limming him. Which compromises Black. If Gob is scum, their conflict looks artificial and this compromises Black as well. Even more IMO. For instance, I CC-ed in part because I felt some pressure from Black's posts and thought that I should not be believed had I delayed. So, if Gob is scum who wanted to frame a vig, then Black could have had a role in that process. So one way or the other Black can be scum.

I don't think that we are now at ELo stage. There is approach that at no-ELo stage you leave a pair of conflicting players (2 cops etc.) in the game, analyze the set-up and who are remaining scums and eliminate a 3rd player. I therefore think that an idea to lim Black or anyone else has some merit.

I have had a busy day and go to bed now. Will think it over tomorrow.

I'm good at reading new players. And you were obvious town.

[Hu Tao]

Holy long post

[Hu Tao]

After reading the long post I would say I agree

[Hu Tao]

sus people:
gob
NotAScum
RN
StD

Town:
Smiley
Snow

Hu,Black,shaddowez are null

Why StD in the sus pool?

Do you townread StD?

Not particularly, but I also don't TR Naerys. And since she hadn't mentioned him in any post up until then, curious as to what the reason for her read is.

What are your thoughts on RN/black/NAS

[Hu Tao]

I think we just eliminate gob

[Hu Tao]

I think I need to reread a bit of yesterday

[Hu Tao]

Sorry I'm doing some spring cleaning. I should be able to catch up soon

[Hu Tao]

Okay I'm going to catch up now

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: Random Nurse

I think the way he initially sided with gob to try and get me faded indicates he was part of the scum agenda. There's a chance he was just scumsiding as town, I just don't think the thought process of "gob is lying scum, but my gut is telling me Black is his partner so I want to go Black first" makes any sense for a townie to have. He didn't back off of me and switch to gob until gob's lim was inevitable

I have a theory on the third but I want to keep that under wraps for now

I personally think NAS was worse than him

[Hu Tao]

Checking in.

Read through Black/Gob interactions again upon daystart ocurring and I think I stand by what I said earlier in that I don't think Black is a partner here. Fairly certain she's just town here.

While doing this I noticed that there were multiple instances of NotScum believing that Gob is a goon (999, 926) and i'm wondering if this could be a freudian slip (like predicting Gob is a "goon" only for him to flip as a goon looks like you knew he was going to flip as that scum role). Checking through their ISO I also don't vibe with their progression on Gob yesterday with NaS trying to defend Gob against Snow and Black at first, before voting them later after most people stated they believed Snow over Gob

VOTE: NotScum

Would you mind explaining the above

Yeah I could see this being the case

[Hu Tao]

Smiley town

I think one of Nurse/NAS is scum but probably not both. This is a gut feeling based on 474. The way Nurse asks this makes me think they're unpartnered

Currently I'm feeling like NAS is just newtown but I should probably reevaluate

I agree with smiley town. He's probably my #1 town read

[Hu Tao]

sus people:
gob
NotAScum
RN
StD

Town:
Smiley
Snow

Hu,Black,shaddowez are null

lotta sus people and only four town. Seems fake to me

I think I'm more wary of Naerys because I'm not sure why gob would townspew her like this after he fake claimed Vig and there was a real possibility that he would be faded

This is a good point

[Hu Tao]

Smiley what are your thoughts on Hu Tao

Looking at Hu Tao+ Gob, I think I feel marginally worse about her than I did before. Looking at it from Gob's end, the most notable interactions for me were 129 where Gob accuses Hu Tao of a slip (This feels +town for Hu Tao. I feel like scum usually don't go for that method of distancing), 499 and 500 where he proclaims T3 as town after Hu Tao said she'd rather vote there (feels like shade), 749 where he calls Hu Tao his friend (eyebrow-raising though probs incorrect to read too much into it) and 1096 which could just as feasibly be distancing given the period in which he said that.

Looking at it from Hu Tao's end. The early part of the day 2 interactions are tough for me to parse. Looking back, the early push on you feels kind of bad and they also initially defended Gob during the vig CC stuff. Though I think their progression in regards to this feels perfectly reasonable, transitioning to agreement that it's just Gob when she realizes that he's not dropping the CC. I also think the way they approached this situation doesn't feel like it's informed. Like I feel like if you're scum in that position when Gob makes the vig claim, it makes more sense to stray away from Gob in case they get CCed (which is what happened). Instead, Hu Tao holds onto Gob town narrative for longer then what i'd expect in the event they were his scum partner.

Would probs put them in the same tier as Naerys. They generally feel towny to me, I wouldn't rule them out completely but I don't feel like looking there today.

(Smiley, Black, StD)
(Hu Tao, Naerys)
(Shaddowez) <--- This one's mostly here due to not getting another chance to look at them yet, a placeholder so to speak.
(Nurse, NotScum)

I mean it's obvious I'm not partnered with Gob because of how I saw him claim vig and thought he was doing it to take a night kill

[Hu Tao]

But I guess that could be faked now that I think about it.

[Hu Tao]

I agree with NAS being scum. I think the last is Dragons. I liked Naerys push on gob day 1. I liked shadows overall play. And I don't think random and NAS are a team. I think black is town and I think smiley is town.

[Hu Tao]

I don't feel like dragon has done anything that warrants a tr

[Hu Tao]

Smiley what are your thoughts on Hu Tao

Looking at Hu Tao+ Gob, I think I feel marginally worse about her than I did before. Looking at it from Gob's end, the most notable interactions for me were 129 where Gob accuses Hu Tao of a slip (This feels +town for Hu Tao. I feel like scum usually don't go for that method of distancing), 499 and 500 where he proclaims T3 as town after Hu Tao said she'd rather vote there (feels like shade), 749 where he calls Hu Tao his friend (eyebrow-raising though probs incorrect to read too much into it) and 1096 which could just as feasibly be distancing given the period in which he said that.

Looking at it from Hu Tao's end. The early part of the day 2 interactions are tough for me to parse. Looking back, the early push on you feels kind of bad and they also initially defended Gob during the vig CC stuff. Though I think their progression in regards to this feels perfectly reasonable, transitioning to agreement that it's just Gob when she realizes that he's not dropping the CC. I also think the way they approached this situation doesn't feel like it's informed. Like I feel like if you're scum in that position when Gob makes the vig claim, it makes more sense to stray away from Gob in case they get CCed (which is what happened). Instead, Hu Tao holds onto Gob town narrative for longer then what i'd expect in the event they were his scum partner.

Would probs put them in the same tier as Naerys. They generally feel towny to me, I wouldn't rule them out completely but I don't feel like looking there today.

(Smiley, Black, StD)
(Hu Tao, Naerys)
(Shaddowez) <--- This one's mostly here due to not getting another chance to look at them yet, a placeholder so to speak.
(Nurse, NotScum)

I mean it's obvious I'm not partnered with Gob because of how I saw him claim vig and thought he was doing it to take a night kill

You are absolutely not cleared here

Never said I was

[Hu Tao]

I can see Gob/RN here

What happened to this

I think it's one of RN or NAS and I'm leaning NAS. I've seen RN be this stubborn on me before and he was town so I could see that here.

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: Random Nurse

Why?

[Hu Tao]

Actually I see. You're thinking RN and I might be partnered and I'm soft defending I'm assuming?

[Hu Tao]

I don't think StD has done anything to deserve a townread but I have a gut feeling that he's town

Interesting we have similar reads but you still scumread me. Why am I scum?

[Hu Tao]

I can see Gob/RN here

What happened to this

I think it's one of RN or NAS and I'm leaning NAS. I've seen RN be this stubborn on me before and he was town so I could see that here.

Why do you think only one of them is scum?

I doubt both scum would take the same position here

[Hu Tao]

LMFAO you're dead gob.

[Hu Tao]

I don't think StD has done anything to deserve a townread but I have a gut feeling that he's town

Interesting we have similar reads but you still scumread me. Why am I scum?

I don't think your reads would be particularly hard to fake if you are scum

I think gob's partners are within {RN/NAS, Naerys, Hu Tao} and I think you're scummier than Naerys

What are your thoughts on shadow?

[Hu Tao]

NAS might be a gob partner

Guess you're thinking it's me gob and NAS now

This felt overly self-conscious and framed in a way that makes me think you were trying to figure out how I was reading you at the time

Yes. Why wouldn't I wonder how everyone is trying to read me? I do this every game.

[Hu Tao]

@RN would you be willing to vote Hu today?

This is just weird

[Hu Tao]

I keep forgetting shaddow exists in this game. I suppose he should go into my PoE as well

Okay you answered it here

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: black

Lets get rid of Black. Unironically. She is a good scum player and too hard to catch.

Not going to grudge vote

I don't feel like that's partnered interaction. I feel like if gob was scum with Naerys they would have talked about it already what gob was doing.

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: gob
sus

When everyone was trying to push black, she started going to gob. And it actually caused others to think it over and derailed the black wagon

[Hu Tao]

I think if it's black/Naerys/gob then that's possible but I don't think it is

[Hu Tao]

Sorry those posts were for shadow when they asked what i liked about Naerys push

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: Dragons

I feel most confident in this.

[Hu Tao]

I am less sure on Black being town. I think her reads lately have been sus. And I don't see her reasoning for scumreading me. Even if she thought it was me and RN that's contingent on RN being scum. And has yet to say reasons why I'm scum independently

[Hu Tao]

UNVOTE:

Actually that's not a good vote that's not going to go anywhere. I need to solve in rn/nas/black now.

Smiley can you tell me what you think of what I said about Black's recent push on me?

[Hu Tao]

I am less sure on Black being town. I think her reads lately have been sus. And I don't see her reasoning for scumreading me. Even if she thought it was me and RN that's contingent on RN being scum. And has yet to say reasons why I'm scum independently

I actually think there's a world where both RN/NAS are town and you're scum with someone like Naerys or shaddow

You think my reads lately have been sus? That doesn't seem very truthful considering you just said we had similar reads and tried to use that as a reason why I should townread you

I scumread you because you're in the PoE and you haven't done anything that has made me go "oh I guess Hu is town"

This "I'm not sure about Black anymore" feels completely fake

Yes. Because you're looking like you might be setting up to miselim me today and someone else tomorrow in rn/Nas whoever is town

[Hu Tao]

I think if I hadn't revealed that I think Hu is probably scum then she wouldn't have flipped on me like she just did, and I think that implies she's probably scum

Lies.

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: Hu Tao

Kinda want to resolve this before RN/NAS tbh

Of course you do

[Hu Tao]

UNVOTE:

Actually that's not a good vote that's not going to go anywhere. I need to solve in rn/nas/black now.

Smiley can you tell me what you think of what I said about Black's recent push on me?

This is Hu Tao posturing to push me btw

Since when do I need to posture?

VOTE: black

[Hu Tao]

Yeah I think I was wrong sorry RN. I should have listened to you yesterday

[Hu Tao]

What are the odds of rn and black being tvt and scum is actually not saying much as NAS said

It's possible

I really don't understand RN's progression if he's town though

Hm.

Gut's screaming at me that it's Black and she simply cannot abide.

That said, if you want to launch between Gob and Snow have at it. I'd be more inclined to launch Gob currently, pending further scrutiny.

Gob + Black + Hu Tao?

strong possibility. HT jumping after the wagon stabilises isn't earning her any towncred

Why is Hu scummy for voting for gob?

RN is always paranoid. So he could actually be town here. I won't rule it out. NAS I'm unsure

Hm.

Gut's screaming at me that it's Black and she simply cannot abide.

That said, if you want to launch between Gob and Snow have at it. I'd be more inclined to launch Gob currently, pending further scrutiny.

Remember when your gut kept screaming at me I was scum and I was town. Try to think in a world black is town for a bit

Look at this jump from yesterday from black

[Hu Tao]

I was the one trying to say that RN/Black could be TvT but she is saying I'm posturing which makes 9 sense at all

[Hu Tao]

0*

[Hu Tao]

Notice how YESTERDAY I said I prefer NAS over RN. But it is only TODAY that she has an issue with it.

[Hu Tao]

What are the odds of rn and black being tvt and scum is actually not saying much as NAS said

It's possible

I really don't understand RN's progression if he's town though

Hm.

Gut's screaming at me that it's Black and she simply cannot abide.

That said, if you want to launch between Gob and Snow have at it. I'd be more inclined to launch Gob currently, pending further scrutiny.

Gob + Black + Hu Tao?

strong possibility. HT jumping after the wagon stabilises isn't earning her any towncred

Why is Hu scummy for voting for gob?

RN is always paranoid. So he could actually be town here. I won't rule it out. NAS I'm unsure

Hm.

Gut's screaming at me that it's Black and she simply cannot abide.

That said, if you want to launch between Gob and Snow have at it. I'd be more inclined to launch Gob currently, pending further scrutiny.

Remember when your gut kept screaming at me I was scum and I was town. Try to think in a world black is town for a bit

Look at this jump from yesterday from black

My reads are notoriously fluid when I'm town. This isn't the "gotcha" that you think it is

Then explain what changed. Prove me wrong. Because we basically had the same conversation twice.

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: Dragons

I feel most confident in this.

there is no way this is true

Why are you town

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: Dragons

I feel most confident in this.

there is no way this is true

Ding ding

Hu is lying scum

Feel free to join the wagon fenrir

Notice how she ignores the post I made right after that

[Hu Tao]

Notice how YESTERDAY I said I prefer NAS over RN. But it is only TODAY that she has an issue with it.

I had an issue with it yesterday, I just wanted to keep my theory under wraps for a bit

This is a lie. Because you asked RN why me voting gob was scummy

[Hu Tao]

Notice how YESTERDAY I said I prefer NAS over RN. But it is only TODAY that she has an issue with it.

I had an issue with it yesterday, I just wanted to keep my theory under wraps for a bit

This is a lie. Because you asked RN why me voting gob was scummy

And? Why is it strange that I want one theoretical partner to talk about the other?

Okay. So why was I scum yesterday. Because you've only given me reasons for being scum that are reasons only for today

[Hu Tao]

Hu is openwolfing at this point

I caught gob. Trust me here and help me fade Hu

@RN @NAS - if you think Hu is my partner you should tag along

TAKING CREDIT FOR CATCHING GOB LMAO

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: Dragons

I feel most confident in this.

there is no way this is true

Why are you town

the thing you said was you were most confident in me being scum and I really doubt that part, that you'd actually feel most confident about me, not whether or not i'm scum

VOTE: hu tao

Maybe you misunderstood or you're scum. Because I think Naerys Shadow Smiley are town. RN/Nas/black I don't see as a team. So you're left. Why would I not be confident?

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: Dragons

I feel most confident in this.

there is no way this is true

Why are you town

the thing you said was you were most confident in me being scum and I really doubt that part, that you'd actually feel most confident about me, not whether or not i'm scum

VOTE: hu tao

Maybe you misunderstood or you're scum. Because I think Naerys Shadow Smiley are town. RN/Nas/black I don't see as a team. So you're left. Why would I not be confident?

um

why would that be your most confident read?

Because.... I see 3 people as town.

I see 1 scum in the other 3 people.

1 person left. ...so......

[Hu Tao]

that's what makes you feel "most confident"?

Yes clearly

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: Dragons

I feel most confident in this.

there is no way this is true

Why are you town

the thing you said was you were most confident in me being scum and I really doubt that part, that you'd actually feel most confident about me, not whether or not i'm scum

VOTE: hu tao

Maybe you misunderstood or you're scum. Because I think Naerys Shadow Smiley are town. RN/Nas/black I don't see as a team. So you're left. Why would I not be confident?

"Maybe you misunderstood or you're scum"

*Proceeds to explain that StD has to be scum in her process of elimination*

??? Because he is misunderstood or scum. Maybe he doesn't understand the process of elimination

[Hu Tao]

that's what makes you feel "most confident"?

Also did you miss this post right after?

UNVOTE:

Actually that's not a good vote that's not going to go anywhere. I need to solve in rn/nas/black now.

Smiley can you tell me what you think of what I said about Black's recent push on me?

[Hu Tao]

in your eyes

3 players are scummy
1 player is just not particularly townie

but you're most confident going for the one that doesn't seem townie

So of those 3 people. I think only 1 is scum. I think there is not 2 scum in there because of interactions

[Hu Tao]

Hu, what do you think about Black + STD?

That's what I was thinking but I don't know if they would both do this right now as partners. I'm thinking maybe I'm wrong on someone else

[Hu Tao]

FUCK

[Hu Tao]

i am sorry i caught bad flu and i am not in a state to think
hopefully will be better tmorrow

Feel better

[Hu Tao]

Hu, what do you think about Black + STD?

That's what I was thinking but I don't know if they would both do this right now as partners. I'm thinking maybe I'm wrong on someone else

I'm thinking the best course of action now is to flip Black. That would yield the most amount of information.

Agreed!

[Hu Tao]

I'm a town PR. I'd rather not reveal my role as it would greatly benefit scum if I do

UNVOTE:

[Hu Tao]

Black if I am town who is scum?

[Hu Tao]

I have a hard time picturing you as town though after this weird push on me. I don't think town!you would be suspicious of me being sus of you

Why wouldn't I? You started saying I was scum after I basically said the same thing as yesterday. Also if I'm town what do you think of Dragons push on me right after? Also if I'm town what do you think of RN not just voting me if he's scum?

[Hu Tao]

NAS stated that they scumread me so I think that would be 4 votes. Either way I'm saying that I still think RN is more likely town and NAS is likely scum.

[Hu Tao]

To clarify I think scum!RN would still vote for me since he's been pushing the Black/gob narrative for a hot minute and it would look strange for him to abandon that now

This is a good point actually

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: NAS

I still want this

[Hu Tao]

VOTE: NAS

I still want this

Do you think his whole "who did everyone target N1?" thingy is just him being ballsy and not caring how scummy he looks? I'm almost getting TWTBAW vibes here

I have no idea what that means but I think he's just new and I think that might be NAI

[Hu Tao]

I agree with NAS being scum. I think the last is Dragons. I liked Naerys push on gob day 1. I liked shadows overall play. And I don't think random and NAS are a team. I think black is town and I think smiley is town.

Hmm. I'll trust you on this for today
I'm pretty sure dragon is town

[Hu Tao]

I agree with NAS being scum. I think the last is Dragons. I liked Naerys push on gob day 1. I liked shadows overall play. And I don't think random and NAS are a team. I think black is town and I think smiley is town.

I'm pretty sure dragon is town

Hmm. I'll trust you on this for today

Fixed

[Hu Tao]

I also disagree with Shadow but yeah I think that I made it clear already

[Hu Tao]

Maybe I should look into shadow and see why I Town read him in the first place

[Hu Tao]

Okay yeah. I figured that's why I backed off dragon.

[Hu Tao]

Okay. My original town reads of black snow and smiley were all PR I actually wish I was scum this game

[Hu Tao]

I think that was end of day no? And we needed an elim?

[Hu Tao]

Never mind that was something else. It's because I started to soft on Nurse a bit since I remembered how he could be in terms of paranoid.

[Hu Tao]

Yes. I stated in the reads list before that that I was unsure. I voted t3 cause the game was dead and I wanted something going. I didn't Town read t3 so I was fine with that wagon going

[Hu Tao]

Okay. My original town reads of black snow and smiley were all PR I actually wish I was scum this game

Wild that you not only townread me but thought I was a PR and still felt strongly enough that I was scum pushing you to put me at e-2

I didn't think you were PR it just so happened to be, I just found it funny

[Hu Tao]

Naur I'm town

[Hu Tao]

I still think it's NAS over RN.

VOTE: NotAScum

[Hu Tao]

I still think it's NAS over RN.

Youre not explaining any of your SRs. Explain why. Youre getting high in my scumlist with every such post.

I already did. And I thought you thought I was scum already

[Hu Tao]

I still think it's NAS over RN.

VOTE: NotAScum

You were already voting for NAS

I'm so dum

[Hu Tao]

Gut pinging on Gob and Black.

VOTE: Black

Then why not just vote gob?

If the scum agenda was to fade me over gob then I'm not sure scum!Hu would post this so close to the deadline when gob and I are tied 3-3

True, queen!

[Hu Tao]

I have a feeling NAS is going to ignore my last two posts. It doesn't seem like he's capable of reevaluating

I'm willing to settle with RN if it's needed but I still think it's NAS

[Hu Tao]

VOTECOUNT 1.10

T3

(7)

- Black,

SirCakez

, Random Nurse,

SmileyDude1

, Naerys,

Aristeia

, shaddowez

SirCakez

(4)

-

Save the Dragons

,

T3

, Hu Tao,

gob

No Elimination (1)

-

Snow2697

Not Voting (1)

- NotAScum

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2024-02-26 01:12:53).

Another thing to consider, do we think the T3 wagon was pure? I'm inclined to think no given the general state of the gamestate (both main wagons on town, I think scum being completely off one of them feels unlikely.

Yeah I think i'd be down for Nurse, Black.

VOTE: Random Nurse

I personally am getting paranoid about shaddowez a little, i will need to reread once i feel bit better

What about shadow in particular? (Hope you're getting better )

[Hu Tao]

If RN and NAS are both town then this game is going to be an uphill battle

Big doubt. Since that would mean both Naerys and Shadow would be scum and I don't see that