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[DarthPunk]

Paranoia world: DP and Luca
Nonparanoia world: Naerys & Hu Tao

This is also literally everyone that is not you.

[DarthPunk]

Vivax why did you backflip on wanting to yeet me?

[Hu Tao]

I’m around now for a couple of hours.

I’ve been following the thread but I want to re read a bit and catch up properly.

ATM I Think HT+Luca is the most likely.

Why

[DarthPunk]

I have reasons to town read naerys and vivax.

Although it’s possible vivax is duping me so I want to interact a bit more with him.

[Luca Blight]

From my perspective, I feel I have to bet the game on Darth being town or there is no chance of winning anyway in this gamestate.

I'm suspicious of Hu Tao for the

'scum is definitely in Grack/Vivax/Luca'

, even more so now she is doubling-down following grack's flip, so will probably end up voting her today unless she can justify that statement.

I don't know why everyone seems to assume Naerys is town.

I explained yesterday. I think this is Naerys town game. And dp and gob are likely not aligned. Why do you think Naerys is scum?

I see nothing to suggest Naerys isn't scum. Why are you so sure she is town? And please don't say 'dumbtell'.

From my perspective at least you or her has to be scum.

I've played with Naerys quite a bit. And when she makes sense she is town.

Also the way you're phrasing this, you're saying me or Naerys which means you think vivax is scum. Yet you said you'd vote me

What has Nerys said specifically that makes you think she is town?

I'm suspicious that you're not even considering you might be wrong when we're in melo. I TR Darth but would be considering him, if not for the gamestate being as it is.

Have to do some work now.

What do you mean by game state?

The situation of the game. From my point of view, I pretty much have to eliminate Hu Tao or Naerys today, as otherwise they would mislim me tomorrow even if we eliminate scum today. If you're not dead tomorrow then you become a bigger point of consideration, no doubt.

[Luca Blight]

I have reasons to town read naerys and vivax.

Although it’s possible vivax is duping me so I want to interact a bit more with him.

We're on Day 5, there are reasons to townread everyone in the game.

What makes you so convinced that Naerys is town? And don't say '

dumbtell'

.

[Luca Blight]

And this is where town loses in melo - where everyone becomes too sure of their reads and unwilling to consider they might be wrong, leading to an elimination that everyone is happy with, which more of than not is going to be town (that's me in this situation).

Who is really willing to consider that i might be town?

If the answer is no-one, then I might as well self-vote now and save us all some time.

[Luca Blight]

I’m around now for a couple of hours.

I’ve been following the thread but I want to re read a bit and catch up properly.

ATM I Think HT+Luca is the most likely.

As I said to Vivax earlier, if I'm scum with Hu Tao why wouldn't I have voted to eliminate Vivax yesterday, when you strongly scumread Grack and townread Vivax, while Ninja only wanted Vivax dead, and Ninja was always going to be dead and you alive coming into D5?

In which case I've set myself up to fail, as you and Vivax are always going to vote me today following Grack's flip, and Ninja, who was my only supporter, is dead.

[Hu Tao]

And this is where town loses in melo - where everyone becomes too sure of their reads and unwilling to consider they might be wrong, leading to an elimination that everyone is happy with, which more of than not is going to be town (that's me in this situation).

Who is really willing to consider that i might be town?

If the answer is no-one, then I might as well self-vote now and save us all some time.

I said I was willing to consider but you'd need to sell me why vivax/naerys makes sense

[Luca Blight]

And this is where town loses in melo - where everyone becomes too sure of their reads and unwilling to consider they might be wrong, leading to an elimination that everyone is happy with, which more of than not is going to be town (that's me in this situation).

Who is really willing to consider that i might be town?

If the answer is no-one, then I might as well self-vote now and save us all some time.

I said I was willing to consider but you'd need to sell me why vivax/naerys makes sense

I don't see any reason it doesn't make sense?

I'm certainly not putting all my eggs in the vivax/naerys basket. It wouldn't surprise me right now if Darth/Naerys was the scum team.

[Luca Blight]

Both Vivax and Darth have gone along with the Naerys dumbtell argument, but perhaps more so Darth and he was the one to originally point it out I believe.

I think scum would have pushed back more against this if Naerys was town, but I'm the only one who has done, and I know I'm town.

[Luca Blight]

And who do you think are the 2 scum then?

Two of you/Vivax/Naerys. Right now I would guess you and Naerys.

Of course, it could be Darth, but if so then gg because there's no turning that around at this stage.

This is literally everyone in the game.

Who are your top 2? No hedging.

Ok, right now my money would be on you and Naerys being the scum team.

[Luca Blight]

This is the only time Darth looks into Naerys, during this Iso dive:

Spoiler:

Nerys filter dive:

Very minimal investment in the game. states they are not reading the thread.

I can see some thought processes happening though

For example

What are your reasons for voting Luca?

Bad reaction to Hu Tao´s experiment. Got overly defensive imo

In the post above they have considered and responded to Luca's reaction to the HT fake claim.

also in this response to gob below.

i think dann did plenty of solving and gob is sus

VOTE: gob
i actually wish to head this way
anybody up for this

But as I was reading I think Nearys just spewed herself as town

You say you're thinking about the night kills, yes? So you're thinking about this after we would have gotten our chance to see Roden's alignment, not to mention that Roden had claimed being jailkeeper during day 1 also. But if you were really interested in putting some thought into the nightkills and wondering how and why they happened like they did, why wouldn't one of the very first things you do, if not THE first thing, be to check the role of the person who died?

You are confusing me. I knew that Roden flipped jk i just didnt know he claimed it.

You say you're thinking about the night kills, yes? So you're thinking about this after we would have gotten our chance to see Roden's alignment, not to mention that Roden had claimed being jailkeeper during day 1 also. But if you were really interested in putting some thought into the nightkills and wondering how and why they happened like they did, why wouldn't one of the very first things you do, if not THE first thing, be to check the role of the person who died?

You are confusing me. I knew that Roden flipped jk i just didnt know he claimed it.

I see, I was maybe misunderstanding things. So when you're looking into how scum "got lucky", you're wondering how they got lucky killing the JAILKEEPER specifically. I thought you might have meant that they got lucky getting a kill, period.

i meant that they were either lucky or very observant killing cop AND jk

wait i got mixed up games

rofl

I find it very difficult to believe that someone posting in the way that they have contrived to engage in this as a "fake town spew"

I think Nareys is out of my lim pool.

Darth says he's not impressed with anything, but then says Naerys spewed herself town based on the dumbtell. It seems very out of character for someone like Darth to completely throw out of the window the idea of a player being scum based on such a thing. My theory is that he needed to protect Naerys while in the process of bussing Gob. After the death of Gob he could use the towncred in the bank to protect Naerys until the end of the game.

[Vivax]

Rereading D1, it surprises me how quickly DP voted for gob. Even Dannflor said that he was playing in a NAI way according to his meta.
Then we have the HT thing that DP also jumped on but I agreed with that as opposed to gob.

Even if DP is mafia, I'd rather find his partner today. He can't justify surviving another night phase (and btw the Dannflor kill is a bit unlikely when someone who caught gob so early and additionally ended up with his vote on him on the day of the Oats yeet or not?).

[Luca Blight]

Also remember the time Darth said I spewed Dunn as town, but then went ahead and voted Dunn soon after anyway?

Yet Darth never for one moment considers Naerys.

[Luca Blight]

On the topic of dumbtells, I once lost a game by writing off a player as town by his reaction to a reaction test here: viewtopic.php?p=11189022#p11188902

In post 79 Billy said

'No idea what they'd be talking about. Maybe how they should interact or not interact?',

and it turned out that daytalk was disabled, which I and others read as being a dumbtell that Billy was town. I learnt the hard way in this game not to put much stock into such 'tells'.

There was another game where a scum member didn't know what was going on, like Naerys in this thread. I'll see if I can find it.

[Vivax]

2.9 (no changes)

Gob (4) :

Naerys / outoforder / DarthPunk / Hu Tao

[Exe-2]

Oatsmaster (4) :

SuperfluousNinja / Dannflor / Luca Blight / gob

[Exe-2]

Luca Blight (2) :

oatsmaster / Vivax

Not Voting (1):

Grackaroni

With 11 Alive, it takes 6 to secure an execution.

Day Two ends in (expired on 2024-02-18 14:43:52)

Mod Notes

.

What do you think of naerys voting you?

doesnt look like naerys is tapped in. She is iust sheeping others i think.

HU TAO SAVE ME

2.10

Oatsmaster (4) :

SuperfluousNinja / Dannflor / Luca Blight / gob

[Exe-2]

Gob (3) :

Naerys / DarthPunk / Hu Tao

[Exe-3]

SuperfluousNinja (2) :

outoforder / Vivax

Luca Blight (1) :

oatsmaster

Not Voting (1):

Grackaroni

With 11 Alive, it takes 6 to secure an execution.

Day Two ends in (expired on 2024-02-18 14:43:52)

Mod Notes

.

Fair. I'm not voting ninja, but I could vote oats. I'll think it over and be back later

Fair. I'm not voting ninja, but I could vote oats. I'll think it over and be back later

Why is this?

Because I scumread oats and ninja is my top tr. I explained earlier

Maybe this is what gave Hu Tao away.
She kept reiterating that she had a SR on Oats but kept her vote on gob and interacted with him like she probably shouldn't if she really thought he was scum.

Juicy part of the game.

[Luca Blight]

But the fact that Naerys apparently had no idea what was going on D1 and most of D2, but then suddenly gets really active and engaged when it comes to the business end of the game, should be a red flag for anyone.

[Vivax]

There is a real chance that the Oats wagon was all town.

[Luca Blight]

One thing about Hu Tao is that her read on me hasn't really developed all game. She had me as null, then scum-lean based on the reaction test, and back to null after I stopped scumreading her, and now I'm back to being scum again based on PoE. I just don't any substance behind this read.

[Luca Blight]

And we recently finished a game together where we were both town, so I would have expected a bit more as she townread me for nearly all of that game.

[Luca Blight]

Ironically vivax has become my strongest townread, and Darth is the most likely to be scum.

I feel as though Hu Tao and Naerys is a case of one pocketing the other, a bit like the Darth/oats dynamic earlier in the game.

Darth/Naerys is still my pick, I'll have a look through at the Darth/Hu Tao interactions.

[Luca Blight]

I generally have a hard time seeing Darth/Hu Tao being a team based on interactions.

Spoiler:

From my perspective, I feel I have to bet the game on Darth being town or there is no chance of winning anyway in this gamestate.

I'm suspicious of Hu Tao for the

'scum is definitely in Grack/Vivax/Luca'

, even more so now she is doubling-down following grack's flip, so will probably end up voting her today unless she can justify that statement.

I don't know why everyone seems to assume Naerys is town.

I explained yesterday. I think this is Naerys town game. And dp and gob are likely not aligned. Why do you think Naerys is scum?

I see nothing to suggest Naerys isn't scum. Why are you so sure she is town? And please don't say 'dumbtell'.

From my perspective at least you or her has to be scum.

I've played with Naerys quite a bit. And when she makes sense she is town.

Also the way you're phrasing this, you're saying me or Naerys which means you think vivax is scum. Yet you said you'd vote me

What has Nerys said specifically that makes you think she is town?

I'm suspicious that you're not even considering you might be wrong when we're in melo. I TR Darth but would be considering him, if not for the gamestate being as it is.

Have to do some work now.

This feels like last game with Gypyx. Where it's more of a meta read

You scumread Naerys earlier in the game for not doing much, but now townread her. It would be really helpful if you could give some examples of posts that convinced you she is town. With gypyx I could understand your confidence even if I disagreed at the time, but I don't understand your confidence in Naerys.

[Vivax]

NGL, Vivax's sudden vote on Dunnstral feels like a panic move in response to a sudden plethora of convincing evidence of Hu Tao's guilt. Why are we suddenly shifting to Dunnstral? How convenient that it's a fairly inactive person. How odd that Vivax says so little to justify the vote.

I don't really like how little engagement Vivax made with my request for info on Hu Tao, either. He seemed unaware that I even suspected him, and frankly I haven't a clue what to make of that, but it's either neutral or willful scum obstinance.

We actually agree for once

What parts do you agree with here?

Um. Read my post before that. It pretty much explains?

Do you agree that vivax was panicking to the plethora of evidence of your guilt? I did read the post before but I don’t see how that applies when ninja is talking like you are guilty and then you agree with the post.

UNVOTE: unvote

VOTE: Hu tao

This might be the biggest misrep I've ever seen. Either you don't get the point, or you're doing this on purpose.

I'm saying that I think that vivax scum sees me as town. But knows that regardless of how it's looking I'll be eliminated soon. And when that happens he can say he tried to push it in a different direction to gain town points. Now how is that anything of what you just said?

We should probably bring this up again, and HT is also in DPs elimination pool today.
Technically, if he votes first and the team is right and HT isn't quickhammered, we already know everything. So it doesn't really matter what happens afterwards.

[Naerys]

Sorry that i actually tried to solve the game lol