Mini Normal 2327: Bird Species (Game Over)

[Black]

I think in general I feel pretty good about her atm. I'm currently combing through Gob at the moment though, so that maybe could change things.

Speaking of which, feels like Gob was consistently transitioning between feeling neutral on Naerys and shading/scumreading her. Would say it feels less partnery to me right now

Why does this behavior make them feel less partnery?

[Black]

Naerys what are your team theories atm

[Black]

sus people:
gob
NotAScum
RN
StD

Town:
Smiley
Snow

Hu,Black,shaddowez are null

lotta sus people and only four town. Seems fake to me

I think I'm more wary of Naerys because I'm not sure why gob would townspew her like this after he fake claimed Vig and there was a real possibility that he would be faded

[SmileyDude1]

I think in general I feel pretty good about her atm. I'm currently combing through Gob at the moment though, so that maybe could change things.

Speaking of which, feels like Gob was consistently transitioning between feeling neutral on Naerys and shading/scumreading her. Would say it feels less partnery to me right now

Why does this behavior make them feel less partnery?

For me, I think intuitively it feels less likely scum would consistently hold their partner in that position without there being a softening in opinion at some point. Like there's never really a moment where Gob "feels better about Naerys" like I might expect if partnered. Stuff like 666 where it seems like Gob is less trying to shade Naerys to distance and more like he's trying to make a Naerys lim happen. It feels closer to scum trying to push on town than scum trying to distance from a partner to me.

Looking at it from Naery's end, I also find myself vibing with her Gob push during day 2 as well(it feels like it came at a point where Gob was still up in the air in terms of whether they'd be limmed). I think I lean town on Naerys atm, they're not in the group of people that i'm near 100% sure on being town, but they're also not in the group of people i'd want to look at limming today either right now

[SmileyDude1]

Smiley what are your thoughts on Hu Tao

Looking at Hu Tao+ Gob, I think I feel marginally worse about her than I did before. Looking at it from Gob's end, the most notable interactions for me were 129 where Gob accuses Hu Tao of a slip (This feels +town for Hu Tao. I feel like scum usually don't go for that method of distancing), 499 and 500 where he proclaims T3 as town after Hu Tao said she'd rather vote there (feels like shade), 749 where he calls Hu Tao his friend (eyebrow-raising though probs incorrect to read too much into it) and 1096 which could just as feasibly be distancing given the period in which he said that.

Looking at it from Hu Tao's end. The early part of the day 2 interactions are tough for me to parse. Looking back, the early push on you feels kind of bad and they also initially defended Gob during the vig CC stuff. Though I think their progression in regards to this feels perfectly reasonable, transitioning to agreement that it's just Gob when she realizes that he's not dropping the CC. I also think the way they approached this situation doesn't feel like it's informed. Like I feel like if you're scum in that position when Gob makes the vig claim, it makes more sense to stray away from Gob in case they get CCed (which is what happened). Instead, Hu Tao holds onto Gob town narrative for longer then what i'd expect in the event they were his scum partner.

Would probs put them in the same tier as Naerys. They generally feel towny to me, I wouldn't rule them out completely but I don't feel like looking there today.

(Smiley, Black, StD)
(Hu Tao, Naerys)
(Shaddowez) <--- This one's mostly here due to not getting another chance to look at them yet, a placeholder so to speak.
(Nurse, NotScum)

[Black]

Gob what are your reads

You Snow, i think NAS js townie. Smiley, Narrys. Like them

Why do you like Naerys

Seems good to me

He does townread Naerys here. He wouldn't really elaborate though

[Black]

Okay i think the team is snow and black + someone else.

Anyway there is no reason to lim Snow here today. Lets get Black.

There is no snese in limming a conf-scum.

what? you can't be serious

There is no snese in limming a conf-scum.

what? you can't be serious

i am serious. Ill lim Snow over most others thiuhh, today.

I want to say this is unpartnered, but could be theatre

[SmileyDude1]

Quick skim looking at Shaddow and I think they feel similar to Naerys in terms if how Gob interacted with them (365, 666 being my main reasoning). Unlike Naerys they kind of only address the Gob/Snow thing late into that day phase after the writing was on the wall there (It's NAI in my opinion due to them only being here for the latter part of that due to circumstance) otherwise there's not much meat there. I think i'd actually keep them where they're at on this list. They feel similar to the tier above, but i'm starting to feel like I might have too many TRs (not sure how confident I am in an exact Nurse/NAS solve, may need to look deeper into that at some point) and I think of Hu Tao/Naerys/Shaddow I feel the least confident in Shaddow)

[SmileyDude1]

Gob what are your reads

You Snow, i think NAS js townie. Smiley, Narrys. Like them

Why do you like Naerys

Seems good to me

He does townread Naerys here. He wouldn't really elaborate though

Yeah, you have a point there. I think if i'm wrong on one of my townreads it's either Naerys or Shaddow

[Random Nurse]

VOTE: Black

It is clear to me that Black and Gob are teammates.

[NotAScum]

Black needs to go. Her attempt at distancing was poor and awkward. It never felt a genuine interaction between gob and Black, her response was over the top and showy. Just go and read her iso and tell me it's a genuine attempt to find a scum, she seemed to have made her mind throughout the conversation with gob. It wasn't genuine at all.

VOTE: Black

[Black]

VOTE: Black

It is clear to me that Black and Gob are teammates.

How confident are you that Hu is our third?

[Black]

Black needs to go. Her attempt at distancing was poor and awkward. It never felt a genuine interaction between gob and Black, her response was over the top and showy. Just go and read her iso and tell me it's a genuine attempt to find a scum, she seemed to have made her mind throughout the conversation with gob. It wasn't genuine at all.

VOTE: Black

You're completely wrong. I'm clearly trying to solve the game, and I was right about gob. You say that I had my mind made up but you seem to be ignoring the context. I thought gob was scum D1, and Snow had been one of the towniest players ever to exist. Once he counterclaimed gob I just knew gob was scum

[Black]

VOTE: Black

It is clear to me that Black and Gob are teammates.

Black needs to go. Her attempt at distancing was poor and awkward. It never felt a genuine interaction between gob and Black, her response was over the top and showy. Just go and read her iso and tell me it's a genuine attempt to find a scum, she seemed to have made her mind throughout the conversation with gob. It wasn't genuine at all.

VOTE: Black

I will say even though I only think one of these two is scum, these posts back to back is a little jarring

[Black]

Awfully quick of Black to vote gob without giving the guy a chance to explain. Also I doubt a real vig would outright claim vig when they can just kill the imposter during night

I tried to explain in my 787. 2 wagons, one against a townie, need to understand who is on the 2nd for D2 analysis. I have figured out that Cakez would be under fire at D2 anyway.
Don't understand Gob's motive. At first I even did not realise he was claiming Vig's role. Probably to find out who is Vig. But why a scummy me would have made a claim to challenge Gob-Vig if no-one is really pushing me?

Why did you wait to claim vig? I guess you had to discuss it in the pt first

This defense of gob mixed with shade on Snow feels bad

[Black]

Honestly I don't really care if you think I'm scummy. We have guaranteed scum within gob/snow and I'm excited about that prospect

or could it be that they're both town? Notice gob hasn't actually claimed he's vig, it's implied. But he could've another town power role and just doesn't want to give it away. This'd also explain why he doesn't want to lim Snow. And this'd also explain why you'd be so excited to kill either of them

gob makes a lot of tongue in cheek posts. I didn't even take his cakez claim seriously at first

I seriously doubt there's two vigs in a game of 13. Not saying it's impossible, but the chance is astronomically small. I'm more inclined to believe snow here, mafia are more likely to fake claim first than to counter claim to the real role. But one thing in that case is, other than by guessing, how did gob figure out the vig killed cakez?

More defending gob

[Black]

SmileyDude1, what do you think of Black? Do you think she's honest in her assessments or have some ulterior motive like I suspect?

Here it seems like NAS is trying to get a feel for how much support a Black wagon could get

[Black]

Gob is probably a goon. It's not hard to guess cakez got killed by vig and gob is used to lure vig. Black is his scummate and now is just distancing

Hmmmm

[Black]

VOTE: NotAScum

[SmileyDude1]

VOTE: Black

It is clear to me that Black and Gob are teammates.

Black needs to go. Her attempt at distancing was poor and awkward. It never felt a genuine interaction between gob and Black, her response was over the top and showy. Just go and read her iso and tell me it's a genuine attempt to find a scum, she seemed to have made her mind throughout the conversation with gob. It wasn't genuine at all.

VOTE: Black

I've mentioned my qualms with this earlier in my 1081, about how the conflict between the two slots was too persistent and longstanding to be scum distancing. Digging deeper there were some moments where Gob got hostile with Black that I just don't think happens if their interaction was theatre namely stuff like 858, 861, and 992 give the vibes of legit frustration with Black that I don't think happens in a world where they're both scum and Gob knows Black doesn't mean what she' saying.

What makes you two feel so confident that Black is partnered with Gob? Show your work.

[SmileyDude1]

For context the last game I was in, I made a very similar read that turned out to be correct, so i'd like to think that I'm alright at identifying these sort of things

viewtopic.php?p=13999948#p13999948 Link to that can be found here (also lol I just realized that I used the very similar language in both games without thinking about it )

[Hu Tao]

Sorry I'm doing some spring cleaning. I should be able to catch up soon

[SmileyDude1]

Black needs to go. Her attempt at distancing was poor and awkward. It never felt a genuine interaction between gob and Black, her response was over the top and showy. Just go and read her iso and tell me it's a genuine attempt to find a scum, she seemed to have made her mind throughout the conversation with gob. It wasn't genuine at all.

VOTE: Black

Also NAS, do you have a response for my concerns listed in the below post?

Checking in.

Read through Black/Gob interactions again upon daystart ocurring and I think I stand by what I said earlier in that I don't think Black is a partner here. Fairly certain she's just town here.

While doing this I noticed that there were multiple instances of NotScum believing that Gob is a goon (999, 926) and i'm wondering if this could be a freudian slip (like predicting Gob is a "goon" only for him to flip as a goon looks like you knew he was going to flip as that scum role). Checking through their ISO I also don't vibe with their progression on Gob yesterday with NaS trying to defend Gob against Snow and Black at first, before voting them later after most people stated they believed Snow over Gob

VOTE: NotScum

Would you mind explaining the above

Namely
1. Can you go through your thought process during the Gob/Snow vig situation? You start out more so believing in Gob in your 813 and 814 then precede to pitching the idea that both of them are town and thinking Gob's vig claim wasn't serious in your 867 and 870 before you transition to calling him scum in your 926. What caused your thoughts to change at these points?

2. Was their anything in particular that made you think Gob was likely to flip Goon specifically? Or are you saying it's more of a misinterpretation?

[Black]

Black and HT, would you two explain what were you doing last night?

D1 threadplays are pretty much worthless. I'm more interested in what you guys did last night.

What was this about?

[shaddowez]

Black needs to go. Her attempt at distancing was poor and awkward. It never felt a genuine interaction between gob and Black, her response was over the top and showy. Just go and read her iso and tell me it's a genuine attempt to find a scum, she seemed to have made her mind throughout the conversation with gob. It wasn't genuine at all.

VOTE: Black

Do you SR Black independently, or only via partner equity?