Mini Normal 2329: complex. [game over!]

[Aristeia]

why does NAS jump onto hutao when/how he does if hutao is scum?

bussing

[Aristeia]

why doesn't scum-hutao clear gera during the massclaim when gera already reads as town to any gunsmith?

because if hu tao says gera is clear
and kay says PC is clear

that leaves a POE of ari/titus only

that means the viable scum teams are:

ari+titus
hu tao + gera
kay + PC

with Psyche/RN conftown.

Nobody is going to lim Titus because need roleblocker.

so the next step is to lim either Hu Tao or Kay to "confirm" their investigative target.

if we lim hu tao, and hu tao flips mafia - gera dies at night game over
if we lim kay, PC becomes confirmed town, we shoot hu tao or gera at night - game over the next day

[Aristeia]

it probably wasn't hutao's strategy to get bussed but i guess we can imagine NAS thinking it was a good idea

it would explain why NAS didnt bother to read the wiki article if NAS just wanted an excuse to hop on to the wagon that he knew was on a mafia

[Aristeia]

KJQ comes across as town trying to find out alignments, where NAS feels like performative new not real new.

this is NAS's only completed game on this site;

viewtopic.php?sid=&f=51&t=92263&user_select%5B%5D=37348

I see no indication he's not just a newbie

VOTE: NAS

these 2 posts don't make sense.

did you miss this post that happened in between them;

do you even have a case for not a scum

so notascum ended as the second biggest wagon of yesterday and was discussed at length as a potential scumread by tons of people
but aristeia, who went out of her way to push through the naeyrs wagon through against a wealth of resistance, apparently did not notice anyone post reasons for voting NAS either 1) back when anyone made these posts, or 2) while reflecting on the outcome of Day and Night 1
aristeia even bothered to spend a post examining NAS's game history before peeking at even one post someone's made this game explainaing their NAS scumread
supposing this slot is town -- which i suppose is not certain! -- the amount of wasted effort here is breathtaking

where psyche basically says im breathtakingly stupid for not recognizing NAS is mafia

[Aristeia]

Question. Is mafia doctor unable to do night kills? Is that why they have no gun?

mafia doctors are able to make nightkills

[Aristeia]

tldr i thought psyche was crumbing a result on NAS because he was so harsh to me so I thought hey maybe i should just shut up and sheep him

turns out he just didnt care about my opinion on the matter

[Aristeia]

Of course YOU would know that since you're mafia. (Just kidding thanks )

[Aristeia]

yes I'm just reading iso's

yes i know thats why i am explaining the context to you

[Aristeia]

tldr i thought psyche was crumbing a result on NAS because he was so harsh to me so I thought hey maybe i should just shut up and sheep him

turns out he just didnt care about my opinion on the matter

Did he not state he didn't have a guilty on NAS

yes he did on the next page after my vote

[Aristeia]

now that you remind me i do still kind of think you purportedly not knowing of a case on NAS by that point remains somewhat suspicious

sure

[Aristeia]

Yes. I didn't need to claim it right away because I didn't want scum to know that I was PR to give them the false sense of security to claim a PR and I figured I'd be able to back up my pr softs pretty easily

yet when kay claims a PR you just claim yours fits in with hers

[Aristeia]

if hutao is scum she definitely was planning the gist of her fakeclaim kind of early. ive gotta remember to do that next time im scum

If I was scum I'd have to bank on the fact that town didn't have a gunsmith. Which was likely with mafia doctor and vig.

everyone had already claimed by the time you claimed gunsmith

[Aristeia]

Yeah because once she said n2 I believed it since mine was n1. I actually assumed that there would be a n2 something. I thought it was vigilante at first since there was no vigilante kill n1

eyeroll

[Aristeia]

that's not how balancing a normal works

[Aristeia]

UNVOTE:

[Aristeia]

we should look at mod's other games to see if there is this sort of n1 n2 pattern in other games and also for gera's claim that he didn't know that role even existed.

I'm p sure Datisi has never modded a mini normal with 5 TPRs [I don't count miller as a TPR]

[Aristeia]

til i am an astrologist

[Aristeia]

I guess I just think its really obvious that too many TPRs got claimed and this game is solved if people just bothered to look at how game balance works instead of whatever they are currently doing but I guess I might be biased because I know I'm town so I should be less mean about it and just take up astrology instead.

[Aristeia]

[Aristeia]

I am currently searching for a bluish green shirt

[Aristeia]

here swing seems a bigger questionmark than power but i wonder how you're parsing this dynamic

I just don't believe Kay's role as claimed makes any sense because whether Kay's target is dead or alive is completely random as she has claimed and that seems like a very weird swing that is ???

I am extremely good at confbiasing myself on details like this and not being openminded about what could or can't be possible so I know I can be totally wrong about this.

[Aristeia]

I am currently searching for a bluish green shirt

just type in this color for the rest of the day

thanks it's so pretty I luv it

[Aristeia]

viewtopic.php?t=88709 5 prs in this game? I'm not sure if I would count backups?

from the 6 mini's only that one had 5?

the backup vig in that setup is basically like a "miller" for the gunsmith but doesnt know they're a miller

[Aristeia]

doesn't kjq seem a bit too informed or is that just me? like they were townreading dave when almost no one else was.

To be fair I was also townreading dave

one of you must be mafia then

[Aristeia]

you're claiming that if you're scum you'd have to bank on the town not having a gunsmith - except you claimed last after everyone else did so I'm not sure that's the risk you'r'e making it out to be

[Aristeia]

I did everything I could without quoting the private message with Datisi that you requested. I asked exactly what you told me to and I gave you the answers I received. I don’t know how you think I would be able to fake those answers if you don’t even think I understand how the game works. I gave you all the information I received from my role and from my messages with the mod. You’re just choosing to not believe me, which is fine, but then why ask me to ask the mod if you don’t care about the answers?

You did nothing wrong Kay, if you're town the fault is with me entirely for my bad assumptions

[Aristeia]

basically i screwed up by targetting titus last night by not fully understanding the extent to which commitment to my strategy is broken by scum choosing not to kill

ari's version where i say i will shoot titus but then don't had a higher EV

I am sorry I gave you so much shit for shooting Titus.

I just thought I had made it really clear you shouldn't shoot her yesterday and you did it anyway and it tilted me because I thought you weren't paying attention to anything I was saying and I spent a lot of time and effort to try to get you to make a different choice.

I've definitely made worse mistakes before and I shouldn't have lashed out at you - it's just a game and I shouldn't be doing anything to make your enjoyment of the game worse

you're right that I've been rude, mean, and abusive at times in this game and I should not be - I will try not to be in the future

[Aristeia]

Yeah yeah I get you felt a way about that but I’m not sorry for holding onto that info and not letting scum understand my thought process. I’m sorry you didn’t agree with how I played it but I felt I gave more than enough information at the time. And it feels like damned if you do, damned if you don’t when it comes to having townreads. You end up being right? Oh well you already knew. You’re wrong? Oh you were just covering for your team. You can twist almost any outcome in the game to someone being scum or town if you try hard enough.

Kay the reason I suspected you over Hu Tao is because the way mass claim in a 13p is supposed to go at the end is that one mafia pretends to be a VT and another mafia pretends to be a Power Role in order to cast doubt into both groups. The way it was done was to over-jam too many fake PR claims which is like really bad play. I think Hu Tao knows better than to do that but I could just be completely wrong about this because right now Hu Tao doesn't seem like she even knows that too many PRs have been claimed so if she wouldn't know that regardless of her role pm

[Aristeia]

Just please make the right choice tomorrow, I’m sorry I wasn’t more of a help. But at this point I feel like you have all my information and all of my opinions.

I kinda want to think kay is just town actually

[Aristeia]

Like Hu Tao feels a lot more enthusiastic about solving/fighting to the end and that's usually townie but I just feel Kay is like honest in how she talks.

[Aristeia]

I might be like substituting my own feelings about who I'd rather have on my team for like an accurate read there - I'm not the best at reading AtE but Kay just feels like honest to me.

[Aristeia]

I don’t. Ari is right to say I don’t know as much as everyone else because I’m new, she’s just wrong when she said I was making “new player” decisions as scum. I want to be helpful, I’ve been answering questions directed toward me but beyond that, I don’t know what to do.

well I was wrong about that part of the read on you because it's not based on what you would do - it's based on what I thought scum!hu tao wouldn't do - so the fact that Hu Tao seems to have no idea how these mechs work means I'm just flat out wrong about how she would've played this as scum because if she's town she clearly doesn't know how this works.

[Aristeia]

I can't help townreading people with puppyeyes who sound so earnest

[Aristeia]

like forget about Datisi's mod meta for mini normals - I'm p sure not a single mini normal has ever been run with 5 positive ev town power roles ever on this site because it just seems like way too much power.

[Aristeia]

the reason I keep harping on this point is that its something you should be able to observe for yourself through an analysis of completed mini normal games and it doesn't hinge on my alignment at all.

[Aristeia]

like if you have time to spend reading this game for like four hours trying to find one tell here or there it would be much easier for you if you simply pulled up a bunch of mini normals and look at what balance actually looks like and that should lead you to the right answer.

[Aristeia]

another reason I'm starting to sour on Hu Tao is because while Kay might not be experienced enough to understand site meta I kind of think Hu Tao should be able to figure it out, she feels like she's just willfully ignoring it atp.

[Aristeia]

I guess the one good thing about being eliminated today is that tomorrow will be entertaining

[Aristeia]

it would be funny to see hu tao and kay try to act like they are the one who was betrayed

i'm conflicted because that might be more entertaining than trying to get a win by like surviving to the end.

[Aristeia]

it feels like we can never get on the same page psyche

[Aristeia]

imagine if Naerys was just staring down disapprovingly at us from Heaven as she watched Hu Tao get away with murder smh

[Aristeia]

Starting ti feel thus is Scum Tao.

Scum Tao desperately tries to get players to vote others, just like in the Bird Species game.

I think she was a lot more passionate in this game than the Bird Species game and maybe thats one of the reasons I was just wrong about her for most of today since she really seems to want to win this one.

[Aristeia]

did you see that VC that PC posted? do you think NAS and gera were both in on the bussing? that's quite a commitment...

if you have a teammate looking like they r going to get speedyeeted super fast why wouldnt you jump on to bus?

[Aristeia]

Starting ti feel thus is Scum Tao.

Scum Tao desperately tries to get players to vote others, just like in the Bird Species game.

I think she was a lot more passionate in this game than the Bird Species game and maybe thats one of the reasons I was just wrong about her for most of today since she really seems to want to win this one.

She could "really want to win this one" as the last Scum, too.

yea that's what I'm thinking now

[Aristeia]

I wonder what kind of heat Scum's packing this game.

I'm surprised there's an IC in this game, so Scum is probably packing heat?

VOTE: KeyLaga

Afrayed Knott

Random Nurse

,

Mafia Goon

, executed Day 3

VOTE: Random Nurse

Cook him, bestie!

VOTE: Random Nurse

VOTE: random nurse

Because it will be funny as fuck to do it twice in a row!

like why can't this be gera+hu tao deciding to go full openwolf all in on an RN lim on page 3?

[Aristeia]

i know it's

possible

they were bussing or calculating that hutao would live but im just doubting it. it's a...discountable possibility
and i dont know setup stuff as well as you guys but i trust the reasoning enough to discount that you are scum
this poe is the fruit of our labor

yes I know you don't know setup mech as well as I do.

but setup mech is something that exists outside of this game that you can research. Like pull up some of the completed mini normals and check how many towns have the potential to generate four clears by day 3. I really doubt you will find a single one because it's simply incredibly unbalanced.

I am only bringing it up because I think if you understood it then this would be a very simple and easy decision for you but I can't make you do it.

if you prefer I can do the analysis myself and compile it in a spreadsheet to share with you but then you'd be counting on me doing the work.

[Aristeia]

i trust you on this! 100%!
now if only we could agree that between hutao and kay it is...

ok if you trust the logic about setup balance it doesn't matter who it is between kay and hu tao because we have 2 lims

you just have to believe I'm town and we are going to win as long as I don't get limmed

[Aristeia]

this desperation from hu tao feels townie

[Aristeia]

VOTE: kay

[Aristeia]

Why is Ari town?

because this setup can't have five town power roles

i have already explained it to you like eleven times

[Aristeia]

darn it
so do i
how can it be that hutao and ari disagree about this
i was told that setup spec is an objective science in this scenario

it is objective

you can check yourself

there are hundreds of completed mini normals

[Aristeia]

So no complex mini has had 5 pr? And if I find one, we can change your minds?

ok find a 13p where its possible for town to have four clears on day three

[Aristeia]

is hutao lying then? aghhh no pls

we might just have different ideas of what balance is or she just doesn't know.

[Aristeia]

viewtopic.php?t=92020

This game had 4 pr and scum had a 1 shot pr and 2 goons. This game mafia already had 2 stronger scum roles. Why is it crazy for us to have 5 pr?

gob (Eliminated Day 1) - Vanilla Town
ssbm_kyouko (Killed Night 1) - Vanilla Town
SirCakez (Eliminated Day 2) - Vanilla Town
AnimatedWiz (Killed Night 2) - Town Rolecop
Roden (Eliminated Day 3) - Town 1-Shot Bulletproof
Thomith (Killed Night 3) - Town Jailkeeper
Hu Tao (Eliminated Day 4) - Vanilla Town
Flavor Leaf (Endgamed Day 4) - Vanilla Town
Dunnstral (Endgamed Day 4) - Vanilla Town
Celebloki (Endgamed Day 4) - Town Neapolitan

bulletproof doesnt generate clears
jailkeeper doesnt generate clears
rolecop doesnt generate clears
neapo is the only role that generates clears

[Aristeia]

the max number of clears that can be generated in that game by day three is like 2

[Aristeia]

viewtopic.php?t=91775

This game had 5 town pr!

town prs are:

mason
informed miller neighbor
informed joat neighbor
mason
mailman

so that's two clears and only three +EV roles

I don't think miller or mailman really give +town advantage depending on what the information the miller has

[Aristeia]

My 1 shot is very swingy as already stated and could give us false clear or false guilty

false clear is (1/12)
false guilty is (1/12) and vig can prove his identity

so 10/12 the info is useful

when setups get balanced they are balanced to make sure what happens most of the time is not unplayable for one side or the other

[Aristeia]

What are the odds that Kay scum clears PC though? Instead of just claiming something like VT?

I agree that is a very unlikely thing to happen and makes almost no sense to me why she would do that because it narrows her own POE

[Aristeia]

the working theory I have in my head for why Kay claimed informed of ___ as being town is because she looked up what an informed townie knows in the wiki and faked it because Gera told her to just true-claim but she couldn't claim her actual information because its probably something like the IC is bulletproof.

I have absolutely no idea why she wouldn't just claim vanilla townie instead if she is mafia other than because she didn't know any better about what to claim.

it is not a satisfying answer

[Aristeia]

there's lots of things that don't make sense to me in this game

like why did hu tao decide to self vote and say to yeet naerys on d2 if hu tao is a gun smith

like why did kjq decide hu tao must be town

i don't really know a lot of answers to these questions - people do strange things. But I do know how setup balance works and you just can't have a setup where town gets four clears on day three because its basically unplayable for mafia and it would never get past review.

you can check that this is true by looking up every mini normal ever completed on this site.

[Aristeia]

like one of you two is mafia who knows they need to yeet me today to have a 1 v 1 tommorrow

and the other one is just town who is pocketed.

[Aristeia]

Way I see it. Me and Kay's role combined make a 2 shot gunsmith. Stronger or weaker I'm unsure

that's not how balancing works

[Aristeia]

it's really uncomfortable thinking that if kay flips town then hutao gets to hold that over everyone forever. whether she's scum or town. it's her glory all alone. so painful

if kay flips town its because hu tao is mafia and she wont be able to hold that over us at all

[Aristeia]

I'm literally never voting Kay today. Because if she's town we lose because of what RN has said. So regardless I need to have ari eliminated.

this is funny because if hu tao is mafia this means she can't kill RN because the person who could shoot through bulletproof is already dead

[Aristeia]

like if hu tao is some kind of mafia role that cant pierce RN's bulletproof I can see why she would be mad about this because she can't kill RN so either she kills the other cleared townies and eventually RN votes for Hu Tao and yeets her or she shoots me and like thats just surrendering

[Aristeia]

ok ari what do you think is hutao a true believer or a half-hearted liar

i kind of think hu tao is a liar because I don't know why town hu tao is this convinced that kay is town it feels borderline irrational in a really weird way

[Aristeia]

i still dont like how hu tao claimed gunsmith after saying she wanted to self-yeet on d1

i am not sure I believe a gunsmith would ever say that

town tend to have a really high expectation of their own utility when they get dealt a power role

[Aristeia]

so sad. so tragic. we remain at an impasse. unless you're okay continuing the 1v1 tomorrow?

well PC says he's never voting for hu tao so its impossible to get to 4 votes on hu tao today

so I dont see how we can yeet HT today

[Aristeia]

like if hu tao is some kind of mafia role that cant pierce RN's bulletproof I can see why she would be mad about this because she can't kill RN so either she kills the other cleared townies and eventually RN votes for Hu Tao and yeets her or she shoots me and like thats just surrendering

Ari setting up for tomorrow

plans within plans

[Aristeia]

every time kay posts I just think wow she's so townie its amazing

[Aristeia]

i think its just the relaxed tone feels so comfortable and soothing

[Aristeia]

I feel bad for Datisi if he's still refreshing this thread waiting for a hammer

[Aristeia]

Well if Kay isn't scum gg

stop stalling

[Aristeia]

AGH just admit you're scum kay admit it

no definitely don't do this kay

make them earn it

[Aristeia]

Tbh Kay. I feel like I defended you more than I defended myself

if she's mafia she can send you a check for attorney fees

[Aristeia]

if they're both mafia that would be a pretty wild setup

[Aristeia]

Tbh Kay. I feel like I defended you more than I defended myself

Honestly you did and that’s why I’m happy to die in your pocket

Stop making posts like this they are too towny

if you're mafia I hope you feel guilty about putting her in your pocket like this!

[Aristeia]

the light...
it's too bright

UNVOTE:

[Aristeia]

But it’s so comfyyy lol

one of the two of you is being pocketed and I'm so here for finding out who

[Aristeia]

this is no laughing matter. this is serious. this is mafia

I thought this was an astrology convention

[Aristeia]

this is no laughing matter. this is serious. this is mafia

I thought this was an astrology convention

What color is your shirt?!

I'm wearing blue!

[Aristeia]

i think we have to retrace our steps. are we absolutely sure it can't be rn

it would be an all time great setup if the last mafia was RN

possibly the best I've ever played

[Aristeia]

It’s supposed to be bluish green, you’ve doomed us all!!

I'm terrible with colors

what's your zodiac sign?

[Aristeia]

I’m a lion. Rawr.

it says your lucky color is red maybe you really are mafia after all

[Aristeia]

i think you did really well

[Aristeia]

your tonal social game is very very good

[Aristeia]

Did I hard defend mafia

you should send her a bill for your legal fees

[Aristeia]

I had no clue. Gera fucked up my plan and I had to pivot. I’m just going to say this now, I am going to be eternally annoyed about how gera and NAS played. They made this game impossible and they didn’t communicate at all. I was alone pretty much the entire game and it was horrible lol

yea that did suck sorry about your partners

[Aristeia]

Sorry Ari for not believing you

its ok I believed kay too!

she is really good

[Aristeia]

Btw I want apologize to Ari about the emotional insinuations, I know I was scum but I wasn’t trying to be insulting at all and I’m sorry for how I worded that post.

oh its ok I didn't feel insulted at all

i'll always remember the fun we had with the astrology

[Aristeia]

if he's the only bulletproof immune player then he would be the only one able to kill RN

I also think the setup was kind of townsided so thats why I couldnt believe people thought you could both be PRs.

[Aristeia]

ty for modding Dats



sorry again for all of my negativity and mean comments.