Mini 2331 - Touhou UPick: Anonymous Edition (Game Over)

[Yuuka Kazami]

The only alignment I know for sure is my own, so it's the safest bet.
It goes me
1. Me.
2. Empirical town.
3. Wibbly-wobbly people in a wibbly-wobbly world.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

The only alignment I know for sure is my own, so it's the safest bet.
It goes me
1. Me.
2. Empirical town.
3. Wibbly-wobbly people in a wibbly-wobbly world.

Great, sadly 2 townies does not a POE make here so you still need to solve for the third.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I want you to take a serious stance. Who is the townie here?

[Yuuka Kazami]

Could people stop trying to force me to make decisions on hard stuff.
I'm constantly changing my mind and dithering because I've been doing that the whole game. New information makes me recontextualize stuff. I didn't think Larvae had any solid associative leads, now Aya found some that don't seem too bad. so I'm weighing that.

[Aya Shameimaru]

yeah my job is significantly harder than both of yours because i gotta split you all into 2 groups of townies and not townies.

Y'all know you're town and I'm town so you only gotta find 1 more.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Could people stop trying to force me to make decisions on hard stuff.

No. I don't want an algo solve; I want you to take a serious position in ELO, even if you change your mind later

[Aya Shameimaru]

also i'm gonna tell you both this, like right now

the other 2 aren't playing.

i'm jsut ruling out Yuuka/Kaguya as a possible team entirely. At MOST one of you is scum. If you're both scum, town has lsot this game anyway because Reisen and Kagerou both just don't wanna be here anymore.

[Yuuka Kazami]

You'll notice that if I had made up my mind, I wouldn't have changed my mind.
From Dai scum to dai town.
From you scum, to you town, to you scum, to you town, to you scum.
From kagerou town to kagerou scum to kagerou town to kagerou scum to kagerou weird.
From Reisen town, to Reisen scum.

It's weird.

[Yuuka Kazami]

yeah my job is significantly harder than both of yours because i gotta split you all into 2 groups of townies and not townies.

Y'all know you're town and I'm town so you only gotta find 1 more.

This is true, yes.

[Aya Shameimaru]

so if you two are scum you win, with that in mind that there is at MAX 1 scum in you two

if I find a townie like saying Kagerou town

then I can just kill Reisen and be confident.

[Yuuka Kazami]

I'm pretty ashamed I'm having as much trouble as I am when I'm staring at 3 players with two scum in them.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

You'll notice that if I had made up my mind, I wouldn't have changed my mind.
From Dai scum to dai town.
From you scum, to you town, to you scum, to you town, to you scum.
From kagerou town to kagerou scum to kagerou town to kagerou scum to kagerou weird.
From Reisen town, to Reisen scum.

It's weird.

What is your current GTH townie

[Yuuka Kazami]

RIGHT NOW, RIGHT THIS SECOND IN THIS SINGLE MOMENT IN TIME,
I THINK, KAGUYA MUST BE THE TOWN BECAUSE UNLIKE REISEN, THEY IMMEDIATELY GET THE OMGUS MICROSCOPE OUT WHEN THEIR POSITION GETS WORSE BASED ON WHAT SOMEONE SAYS ABOUT THEM TO SEE IF IT'S SCUM DOING IT.

I HATE KAGEROU'S POSITIONING SO MUCH THIS AND LAST DAY PHASE THAT IT ALMOST FORCES ME TO EXCLUDE ALL OTHER CONSIDERATIONS EVEN AS I REALIZE SOMETHING REALLY STRANGE IS GOING ON THERE.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Reisen. Scum.

Kaguya = Kagerou.

RIGHT NOW, RIGHT THIS SECOND IN THIS SINGLE MOMENT IN TIME,
I THINK, KAGUYA MUST BE THE TOWN BECAUSE UNLIKE REISEN, THEY IMMEDIATELY GET THE OMGUS MICROSCOPE OUT WHEN THEIR POSITION GETS WORSE BASED ON WHAT SOMEONE SAYS ABOUT THEM TO SEE IF IT'S SCUM DOING IT.

I HATE KAGEROU'S POSITIONING SO MUCH THIS AND LAST DAY PHASE THAT IT ALMOST FORCES ME TO EXCLUDE ALL OTHER CONSIDERATIONS EVEN AS I REALIZE SOMETHING REALLY STRANGE IS GOING ON THERE.

Did your position change between these two posts? If yes who was your GTH townie then

[Yuuka Kazami]

Yes, it was Kaguya scum/Reisen scum then.
In this singular moment in time it's Kaguya town, but I can easily be wrong here. You have the wim to do this.
You have a cookie in one hand and a closed fist in the other. It's skinner box basics.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

You have a cookie in one hand and a closed fist in the other. It's skinner box basics.

idk what this means

[Yuuka Kazami]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operant_c ... chamber%20

[Kaguya Houraisan]

No I know what a Skinner Box is I just don't get what you're saying

[Yuuka Kazami]

Huh?

I've been pretty clear that my solve is Kagerou/Reisen, my open positionalness is based on maximizing the likelyhood that this solve goes through

You don't have a set in stone townie, your positionalness is based on maximizing the chances that Yuuka doesn't go through

fist/Pushing back/La re'sistance

Cookie.

[Yukari Yakumo]

Reisen Udongein Inaba has failed to pick up a prod and will be replaced.

Deadline has been frozen until replacement is found.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

This game really is just procrastination city

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Reisen. Scum.

Kaguya = Kagerou.

Yep!

That feels wrong but I don't have time to figure out why

Gonna try to put this into words. If you think Reisen is always scum here and that Reisen flipping scum tips the scales towards me flipping scum then how is it possible for Kagerou and I to be in the same tier here

Can you answer this btw

[Yuuka Kazami]

I did, but I'll answer it again.
My problem is that Reisen had material, but you didn't want to engage in past play but only wanted to engage in the moment.
There is material to work with, it was a choice.
Kagerou, in their way, pushed at Reisen, but you haven't.
Your and Reisen's reads have been relatively static, My and Kagerou's have not (this day phase) been.

I know what you're trying to say,

"If Reisen is always scum here, doesn't that mean I should always be in their scum team with them? Why are you still holding out on Kagerou scum, when it's clear you associate Reisen with me"

Like, there's a reason it's that way and it has to do with fog of war, uncertainty, algorithmic play, risk of play, scum strategy etc.
But it also has to do with my preoccupation with Kagerou's play today and yesterday.

Today they entered and made a misplay if they're town. Their "I see scum, I vote scum in Melo, with an unexplained guilty" does not align with their relatively solid reasoning (albeit that was risky as hell) in regards to how to handle Marisa, they say they have logic in and logic out. But Their logic about yesterday versus their logic of today does not follow their play does not follow their logic of today.

They also don't really address questions directed at them in a satisfactory manner, nor do they respond specifically. Not to mention they replaced into this game and yet have provided the bare minimum of activity.

In addition, they flipped their read of me from scum yesterday to town today after starting out by voting me without solidifying the reasoning involved giving them room to maneuver or hell even letting their reasoning be examined.

When I tried to list out why each player could be scum,
I realized that I had a long ass list of Kagerou question marks and suspicions, while you and Reisen had a relatively modest profile.

This actually made me double take because I get worried that if I have *too many reasons* they're just careless town, but enough about my predilection to fence sit to counteract my tunneling.

Do you understand what I am saying Kaguya?

[Yuuka Kazami]

I also have a test-type reasoning, I'm told that the first time you put something together on a test it's usually the right answer, if you change it, it's usually wrong.
Last game day when going over my notes I realized that a Reisen/Kaguya scum team made sense. When I was thinking about vulnerabilities based on where each player was positioned.

So that kind of bothers me too.

While I think VC is important to creating context in terms of risk to Kagerou yesterday, I'm not sure it's the end all be all when social sentiment works just as well, there's also simply that each player is going to have a different interpretation of how vulnerable each particular player is.