Mini 738: The Town of Merrin - Game Over

[Dourgrim]

First off, I noticed you never responded to my Post 224, which I feel disproves your claim in Post 219 that I am blatantly misrepresenting your case, which was your reason for voting me.

I believe post 224 is in and of itself an oversimplification meant to be cute. Gosh, but that was witty how you "can't make it any more simple than that" for us other not-GIEFF players. Once again, your condescending nature leaps to the fore. Furthermore, it was a gross oversimplification that disproves nothing. Quoting without actually quoting what people say

is

misrepresentation at its core. Do you disagree? Stop trying to paraphrase other people and base your questions off of actual in-game text, please.

Secondly, your Zilla-WIFOM post is mind-boggling. You make a lot of faulty arguments and come to a conclusion that doesn't make sense even if your arguments weren't faulty.

OK, see, the problem here is that we're almost forced to lynch you with this logic, if only to "prove" that Zilla is scum. However, the worst part about it is even if you do flip Town, there's a reasonable chance Zilla is also Town (because there isn't a real case against her aside from your WIFOM and Panzer's "mistrust" issue, which I obviously don't believe is solid), which means we could end up mislynching twice in a row based on a crappy WIFOM decision if we just blindly followed. Bad Town play.

"if we blindly followed, it would be Bad Town play." Agreed, but that hardly is enough to argue against a B_B lynch.

OK, how many times can I say this? I'm

not

saying lynching BB is a bad idea. He's

second on my list

behind Panzer, as I just said in post 466 about an hour ago. Why is this so hard to understand?

IF B_B fips town, and IF Zilla is also town and IF the town blindly follows a town-B_B lynch with a Zilla lynch, then lynching B_B will have been a bad idea. What do you think the odds are of all three of those things being true? I put it at well below 5%.

You're forgetting BB's assertions that Zilla must be scum because she's pushing for a BB lynch (who insists he's Town), and I was addressing the faulty nature of his assertion. If we make the assumptions he's asking us to make in his "defense," we engage in a WIFOM. I was refuting that possibility, not endorsing it. Furthermore, as I've said numerous times recently, I do

not

believe BB will flip Town because

he's #2 on my scum list.

Here's the other problem I'm seeing: it seems like many of the rest of the Town have you and Panzer at the top of their scum lists (including me), and both of you have Zilla near the top of your lists. How can the Town in good conscience follow the leads of the two scummiest-looking players in the game? Also bad Town play.

This doesn't make any sense at all to me. What does scummy players suspecting Zilla have to do with a B_B lynch? Are you still talking about the nested possibility of lynching B_B, B_B coming up town, and then the town focusing in on Zilla? Why? Doesn't this seem very unlikely? Even if they are both town, why do you think we' would just blindly lynch Zilla? Because an over-emotional dead townie asked us to?

This entire quote is senseless. Read above; I'm refuting BB's argument that Zilla is scum and explaining why I can't possibly take his and Panzer's reasoning for Zilla being scum at face value. Why is this difficult for you to understand?

So, how do we avoid the WIFOM problem with you vs. Zilla and yet still pursue a valid lynch?

What does Zilla have anything to do with B_B's scumminess or his inability to defend himself? Here is your vote for B_B. Explain to me exactly which parts of this post are invalidated by B_B's Zilla-WIFOM.

I'm not at all sure of why you think I think it is invalidated. Again, I'm just refuting BB's logic.

Your lack of any sort of defense shouldn't it and of itself be a valid defense, and I'm kinda tempted to just push for your lynch based on that axiom itself, but I don't think that's really a good enough reason to lynch anyone.

As Goat and I have both said, this is NOT the reason for lynching B_B. This is NOT the reasoning you presented at the time of your B_B vote, so why are you focusing only on this now?

Um, I'm not. If I

was

focused on this, I'd have continued making it a main point in my posts, and I haven't.

The only thing I can think of is to go back to more solid cases that don't involve WIFOM: either my GIEFF case (which doesn't seem to have much support from the rest of the Town) or the Panzer/myko "team" theory. The catch is, if we lynch Panzer or myko, we're going to learn a LOT about the rest of the game, whereas lynching GIEFF doesn't really lead us anywhere because he's not clearly linked to anyone at this point.

So in your mind, all a scum has to do to avoid a lynch is to say "well, if I come up town, be sure to lynch Player Y tomorrow?" Because that's what it looks like.

Huh? Seriously, GIEFF, your logic is usually pretty good, but you

desperately

need to stop trying to restate people's opinions for them. I never said that at all, nor have I been able to find a post that implies that I think that. The part of my post that you quoted says that I'd rather avoid a WIFOM and pursue a lynch of one of my suspects that also happens to have great potential for giving the Town more information. How you came up with your spin on my quote is beyond me.

Furthermore, immediately after this post, you say this:

EBWOP: I'm not trying to lead the Town here, I'm just presenting my opinion on what I think optimal play is here. Do what you want.

What? You most certainly ARE trying to lead the Town. There is nothing scummy about it; if you feel a certain strategy is best for the town, of course you will try to lead the town to follow it. What IS scummy is leading the town while pretending not to, as if you are trying to distance yourself from whatever results from your actions. "Hey, that was your guys' choice, not mine."

I intend the word "lead" to mean "try to get the Town to follow me blindly" here. I do not want that.

The decision becomes, what do we like less: GIEFF's case or mykonian's defense?

I don't like this. Granted, they took up most of the game, but I still don't think that we have to pick one or the other. Why not neither? Or both? I don't see a dichotomy at all.

Agreed. It is a false dilemma, trying to get the town to think they must choose between one or the other: a Panzer lynch or a mykonian lynch.

Did you read post 457? Before nesting this little tidbit into the middle of an anti-Dourgrim rant, you really should have read the last paragraph of that post.

This is interesting. If panzer flipped town, what do you think it'd say about myko and why? If he flipped scum? If myko flipped town/scum - panzer?

I'm not sure I'm entirely comfortable answering this in the thread for all to see. If we were to lynch Panzer or myko, it could be later misconstrued as me trying to lead the Town, and I'm not trying to do that at all.

You seem quite conscious of the need to not look like you lead the town when we look back on today after a lynch. It is also quite clear that you ARE trying to lead the town. Why do you think that leading the town is bad, if you are really so certain that Panzer is the best lynch for today?

Because I want 11 other players to play with their own minds, formulate their own theories, discuss...and more importantly, I

don't

want people who think 19 pages is too much to just "get this over with" by following my lead. I'm

not

specifically trying to lead the town, but I

am

trying to work through my train of logic and convince the other players that I'm genuinely right because I believe I

am

right. Besides, the accusation of someone "leading the Town" after a mislynch is an overused crutch people use to make themselves feel better about making a mistake.

You're really a hardcore semantics guy, aren't you? You're nitpicking again, and you're paraphrasing, and you're forcing me to post a wall of quotes and text because you're irritating me. Stop it.

[Zilla]

Number two is not based on subjective guesswork, but on

my own personal feelings

subjective

about Panzer's play being genuine.

guesswork

Along those lines, why do YOU think Panzer is town?

I never said I thought he was town. The only people I think are town are GIEFF and Dourgrim. If you mean why am I not voting him, it's because between Myk and Panzer, I think Myk is more likely to be scum, just based on their interactions. As I've said before, if only one of them is scum, I'm more certain it'd be Myk.

Number 4 and 5 explain how it's a bad idea if he is town, and how it's a meaningless gesture if he's scum. If he's town, it's bad. If he's scum, then we would be equally as good off if we lynch for scum. It's my way of saying how lynching for information is strictly a poor idea. Nowhere do I assume he's town. I'm only defending him so far as defending against bad ideas that happen to relate to him. If someone suggests we lynch BB because his name is annoying to type out, I would defend him against that accusation, despite still thinking BB is scum.

The BB example is strawmanning, and attacking a completely irrelevant case. Lynching Panzer will give us perhaps the most information (solely because GIEFF is more accountable for Panzer than Myk, otherwise, I'd say they are tied), and information is a good thing.

It's the very rare game that day 1 lynches scum, so lynching for information is perfectly valid.

[mykonian]

It's the very rare game that day 1 lynches scum, so lynching for information is perfectly valid.

zilla, I had some theory in (I thought) my last post about this. Can you agree with that?

[GIEFF]

I believe post 224 is in and of itself an oversimplification meant to be cute. Gosh, but that was witty how you "can't make it any more simple than that" for us other not-GIEFF players. Once again, your condescending nature leaps to the fore.

Not at all. You misunderstood what I was saying, and used that misunderstanding to justify a vote for me. As it was a complicated point, I tried to explain it as simply as possible so you would realize that I was not mis-representing your position.

You chose to respond emotoinally instead of answering the question, so I will ask it again: do you agree with post 224? And if so, why did you ignore it, leaving your vote on me for so long even after I pointed out that you were misunderstanding me?

I was trying to be as simple and concise as possible, and I was describing what I thought you and ting were saying; quoting the entire posts would have made the logic more difficult to follow. If you thought I was misrepresenting you or ting, why didn't you say so? You said you voted me because I misrepresented your position, so if you thought I did it again just a few posts later, wouldn't you bring it up and say "aha, he's doing it again?" Why did you just ignore it?

Because I was NOT misrepresenting your position, and you know it.

So in your mind, all a scum has to do to avoid a lynch is to say "well, if I come up town, be sure to lynch Player Y tomorrow?" Because that's what it looks like.

Huh? Seriously, GIEFF, your logic is usually pretty good, but you desperately need to stop trying to restate people's opinions for them. I never said that at all, nor have I been able to find a post that implies that I think that. The part of my post that you quoted says that I'd rather avoid a WIFOM and pursue a lynch of one of my suspects that also happens to have great potential for giving the Town more information. How you came up with your spin on my quote is beyond me.

Here is your post that I don't understand. I am not trying to misrepresent your position. I'll try to step through what I think you're saying, and I'll number it so you can tell me either where I'm wrong or where you disagree, and hopefully we can reach a consensus.

1. Your first two paragraphs explain why lynching Zilla (based on B_B's post) would be a bad idea.
   
2. Your third paragraph says that lynching B_B is a bad idea, because it is filled with WIFOM from about the the Zilla-B_B link.
   
3. B_B was the one who injected the WIFOM by saying "if I flip town, then Zilla is scum, so lynch Zilla tomorrow."
   
4. As the Zilla-WIFOM was the reason you presented for wanting to hop off the B_B wagon, I concluded that all a scum has to do to get you to hop off his wagon is exactly what B_B did, i.e. say "if I come up town, lynch Player Y tomorrow."

Of course you didn't say that word-for-word, and of course I didn't SAY you said that. I tried to understand your logic for wanting to unvote B_B, and concluded that it boiled down to point 3 above.

Is that correct? If not, please explain it more clearly, and explain why you did not say so in your "Zilla-WIFOM" post. And if it is correct, do you understand why it looks to me like all a scum has to do is repeat point 3? You said yourself "Well, there is WIFOM here, so it's a bad lynch," ignoring the fact that B_B himself was the one to inject that WIFOM, so I concluded that all ANYONE would have to do to get you off his wagon is inject some WIFOM in a similar manner to the way B_B did.

So, how do we avoid the WIFOM problem with you vs. Zilla and yet still pursue a valid lynch?

What does Zilla have anything to do with B_B's scumminess or his inability to defend himself? Here is your vote for B_B. Explain to me exactly which parts of this post are invalidated by B_B's Zilla-WIFOM.

I'm not at all sure of why you think I think it is invalidated. Again, I'm just refuting BB's logic.

You are not just refuting the logic. You summarize it in paragraphs 1 and 2, but use it as a justification for hopping off the B_B wagon in paragraph 3. That is more than just a summary, that is using it to explain an unvote.


So I will ask again: what does Zilla have to do with the reasons you initially presented for voting B_B? You assume that if B_B flips town, then we will automatically lynch Zilla, and you also assume that this will be bad, as you assume Zilla will be town. This is odd logic, to say the least, and does not convince me that it is your real reason for wanting to unvote B_B.

[Goatrevolt]

Zilla, if we lynch Panzer and he is town, what does that say about GIEFF? If we lynch Panzer and he is scum, what does that say about GIEFF?

Your entire argument is from this perspective that I have been calling Panzer scummy, but yet have also been defending him in certain circumstances and this is somehow wrong. The implication is that if I feel someone is scummy, I must therefore agree with every point raised against them, which is certainly not true. I think some of his actions are scummy. I feel like other actions of his are not scummy. I have agreed with the former. I have argued against the latter.

Let's examine:

I pressured Panzer on the initial questions that led to the suspicion of him in the first place.

In at least 2 or 3 places in the thread I pointed out inconsistencies in his logic and called him out for them.

GIEFF said the "Dejkha is a townie" thing was a slip. I defended Panzer, because I did not believe it was a slip.

I defended Mykonian because I do not believe him to be scum, independent of Panzer's alignment. How you construe this as a defense of Panzer I do not know.

I pointed out that lynching for information is a bad idea. I've never once advocated lynching for information in any mafia game I have ever played. In this case, it so happens that it relates to defending Panzer against an information lynch against him.

So what you have is me attacking Panzer on aspects of his play that make him more likely to be scum, and me defending Panzer on aspects of his play that I do not think make him likely to be scum. That is perfectly consistent.

What I tried to point out in my last post that you called irrelevant is that I don't have to agree with every point raised against someone I feel has been scummy. In fact, I can actually disagree with points raised against someone I feel is scummy. The example with BB's name was a bit extreme, but the principle is the same.

[Goatrevolt]

The concept of lynching for information is such that even if the lynched player is town, it is acceptable because we have learned much from him. In other words, if you are advocating a lynch for information, Panzer's alignment is not relevant because you feel that we learn a lot from him and thus it's worthwhile regardless of his alignment.

My question is then: What do we learn from lynching Panzer if he is town? I want specifics. Is lynching a town Panzer going to help us find scum in any way? Why, how, and who?

Note that: "there is a chance he is scum" is not a valid reply to the above, because lynching for information implies alignment is not a relevant consideration.

Personally, I feel that lynching for information is a BS justification people use to back up a lynch they are not confident in. "Well, he has been kind of scummy, but the good thing is, even if he's town we learn a lot here." Trying to justify how a lynch is fine even if it fails does not bestow confidence.

[Zilla]

Zilla, if we lynch Panzer and he is town, what does that say about GIEFF? If we lynch Panzer and he is scum, what does that say about GIEFF?

This is Dourgrim's case, since GIEFF was more directly associated with motioning to lynching panzer. From what I get out of Dour's case, if Panzer's town, GIEFF has a higher chance of being scum. If Panzer is scum, GIEFF has a higher chance of being town. Allegations are lodged that GIEFF was tunneling on Panzer, so to those that hold that to be true, Panzer's alignment would help establish the motivation behind that.

I personally don't think GIEFF has been tunneling, which means, to me, Panzer's alignment won't have as much impact on GIEFF's.

[Zilla]

My question is then: What do we learn from lynching Panzer if he is town? I want specifics. Is lynching a town Panzer going to help us find scum in any way? Why, how, and who?

This is partially why I think Myk is a better candidate than Panzer. Town panzer won't be as solid as town-myk, in my opinion. I personally think a town panzer doesn't clear anyone, since most of his defenders are treating him as if he is confirmed town (you, Mykonian). And don't tell me that you'd been aggressive on panzer, you're saying one thing and doing another in this regard, and all your actual actions seem to indicate you think he is town, even though your words sometimes say otherwise. The problem is that the people who are treating him as confirmed town could be doing it to protect a scumbuddy as much as they are doing it to buddy up to town.

Town Panzer would help us analyze whether his defenders were defending him because they

thought

he was town or because they

knew

he was town, rather than leaving it open to speculation on if his defenders are trying to defend a buddy. Revealing the specifics of who falls into which category is harmful and pointless at this point, and potentially destroys sources of information.

You're awfully adamant that Panzer is town, and you're trying to construct it as if lynching him is entirely a bad idea because he might be town, ascribing that apparently everybody wants to lynch him for information. The information case is basically a selling point that makes him more attractive than a Beyond Birthday vote, because if he's scum, it certainly implicates others to help find more scum. I don't know who we would follow up on for BB being scum.

[Zilla]

So hey, I took a peek over at GIEFF vs Dourgrim, and too much of it is too familiar... It's me and Goat all over again.

[GIEFF]

So you see nothing wrong with this post, Zilla?

[Goatrevolt]

You're awfully adamant that Panzer is town, and you're trying to construct it as if lynching him is entirely a bad idea because he might be town, ascribing that apparently everybody wants to lynch him for information. The information case is basically a selling point that makes him more attractive than a Beyond Birthday vote, because if he's scum, it certainly implicates others to help find more scum. I don't know who we would follow up on for BB being scum.

I think you're confusing "adamant about Panzer being town" with "not wanting to lynch him today because I think there are better targets." He's 3rd/4th on my scum list, hardly "town" but also not really someone I want to see dead yet.

While I have a couple of suspects I would follow up on if BB is scum, I think you're missing the point. If Panzer is scum, it implicates others as scum. If Beyond Birthday is scum it doesn't necessarily implicate others as scum. Fair enough. However, how does that affect the actual likelihood of them being scum, and how is that relevant to who we choose to lynch? Panzer as scum being a good tool to catch other scum doesn't actually affect whether or not Panzer is scum. BB as scum not really helping us catch other scum doesn't actually make it worse to lynch scum. That's why "what happens if he is scum" is irrelevant to whether or not he actually is scum and should have no bearing on deciding upon a lynch.

[Zilla]

@ GIEFF:

Dour: I know I am town. I think Zilla is scum. I have nothing more than this and I believe a few, even though they think that I am scum, would agree that under the assumption I am town in this situation, Zilla is scum. However, I have no way of proving I am town right now, and can only hope my future play better reflects my alignment.

OK, see, the problem here is that we're almost forced to lynch you with this logic, if only to "prove" that Zilla is scum. However, the worst part about it is even if you do flip Town, there's a reasonable chance Zilla is also Town (because there isn't a real case against her aside from your WIFOM and Panzer's "mistrust" issue, which I obviously don't believe is solid), which means we could end up mislynching twice in a row based on a crappy WIFOM decision if we just blindly followed. Bad Town play.

Here's the other problem I'm seeing: it seems like many of the rest of the Town have you and Panzer at the top of their scum lists (including me), and both of you have Zilla near the top of

your

lists. How can the Town in good conscience follow the leads of the two scummiest-looking players in the game? Also bad Town play.

So, how do we avoid the WIFOM problem with you vs. Zilla and yet still pursue a valid lynch? Your lack of any sort of defense shouldn't it and of itself

be

a valid defense, and I'm kinda tempted to just push for your lynch based on that axiom itself, but I don't think that's really a good enough reason to lynch anyone. The only thing I can think of is to go back to more solid cases that don't involve WIFOM: either my GIEFF case (which doesn't seem to have much support from the rest of the Town) or the Panzer/myko "team" theory. The catch is, if we lynch Panzer or myko, we're going to learn a LOT about the rest of the game, whereas lynching GIEFF doesn't really lead us anywhere because he's not clearly linked to anyone at this point.

I'm thinking Panzer is the right choice for today's lynch. However,

before we start voting,

I want to hear the lurkers' opinions on my logic, and I want to hear from GIEFF (who has been strangely absent today), Goatrevolt, and (brace yourselves) mykonian. I think myko's reaction to this could be key, and so I urge the Town to not lynch anyone until we've gotten a clear, detailed answer from him.

Make sense?

Nothing that implicates Dour, if you're looking for that. There's minor points I disagree with, in that I think Mykonian is better to lynch than panzer, but his post isn't inconsistent in logic, and I think you're not understanding some of his points that he's defending. In the goat/Zilla analogy, I'd say you're goat and Dour's Zilla .

Oh, there's the "lynching GIEFF won't give us info on anyone" because if GIEFF is scum, I'd say that clears up Panzer a bit.

[quote="goatrevolt]However, how does that affect the actual likelihood of them being scum, and how is that relevant to who we choose to lynch?[/quote]

I don't think we're talking about the same point here; If BB and Panzer are both looking equally scummy, Panzer is the better choice because his lynch gives us more information, given an equal chance between BB and Panzer flipping scum. Town Panzer still gives us more info than town Birthday, and scum Panzer definately gives us more info than scum Birthday. Nobody is suggesting that the possibility for information affects their chance of flipping scum, but that knowing Panzer's alignment is more helpful than knowing Birthday's.

I think town-panzer might actually give us more information than scum-birthday. While, in retrospect, it's always better to lynch scum, we don't know their alignments...


OH...

BUT YOU DO!

unvote: Mykonian
Vote: Goatrevolt

This is the only thing that explains your mindset. You know their respective alignments, hence why you're having trouble understanding how their added information helps town, BECAUSE YOU ALREADY HAVE ACCESS TO THAT INFORMATION.

*cue emotion-driven response from Goat*

[GIEFF]

That makes no sense at all, Zilla.

I share Goat's mindset, and I don't know alignments. The primary factor in determining who to lynch should be who we think is most likely to be scum. This isn't rocket science. If it TRULY is a tie in your mind, then I guess you should go for the lynch that provides information.

Drop the Goat thing, already. He's not getting lynched today. Your pages and pages of arguing about nothing is very anti-town and is distracting us from our lynch decision.

[Dourgrim]

I will respond to everything tomorrow morning, and I'll do my best to be clear and logical. GIEFF, I apologize for the confrontational tone of my last post. My only excuse is that I had a very stressful end of my day at work and was rushing to post before leaving. Unfair to you and the rest of the game. My apologies.

[GIEFF]

No worries, Dourgrim; sorry you had a rough day.

[Goatrevolt]

Zilla, what's the point of generating information? Answer: to catch scum. We generate information because we want to catch and lynch scum. So you saying that a Panzer-town lynch gives us more information than a scum-birthday lynch is irrelevant, because by lynching Birthday-scum we've completed the objective that the information from a town-Panzer lynch is trying to accomplish. And that objective is the eradication of scum.

Every lynch gives information. We should be lynching people who we think are scum, not people who's information might help us on the way towards catching scum. It's like adding an additional and irrelevant step in the middle.

And no, I don't know their alignments. I understand how Panzer's lynch can generate useful information. I don't think that information is in any way, shape, or form enough to base a lynch off of.

One question for you: Why do you think Birthday is town?

[Zilla]

The deal is that he's treating it as if we already know their alignments, so of course we wouldn't gain any information by lynching them. This entire mindset only makes sense from a scum standpoint, as they DO know the alignments.

Drop the Goat thing, already. He's not getting lynched today. Your pages and pages of arguing about nothing is very anti-town and is distracting us from our lynch decision.

i.e. Don't look at the man behind the curtain. Shoo, shoo.

Telling me who not to argue is anti-town, and is distracting me from my vote decision.

[Zilla]

One question for you: Why do you think Birthday is town?

Where the HELL do you get the opinion I think Birthday is town? Quit trying to ascribe these opinions to me.

[Zilla]

And no, I don't know their alignments. I understand how Panzer's lynch can generate useful information. I don't think that information is in any way, shape, or form enough to base a lynch off of.

Who is basing their lynch case off of it?

[Zilla]

Also, yet again, you are assuming Birthday is confirmed scum and Panzer is confirmed town and that we have a clear choice between lynching scum and lynching town. This is where the scum-mindset is asserting itself, you somehow think it's a clear decision between the two. You constantly try to back your case up by eliminating the argument that "Panzer could be scum." I suspect that's because you already know Panzer's alignment.

[GIEFF]

Zilla, you have said you think I am townie, so please listen.

Goat will not be lynched today. Your incessant focus and pages and pages of back-and-forth are hurting the town. Please drop it.

[Zilla]

New evidence, new argument, new case. Attempting to pit your reputation behind your words only harms your reputation to me, and I REALLY don't like how you are calling people who are valid lynch candidates.

[springlullaby]

Busy atm. Promise to do better by weekend.

[Zilla]

Also, the same could EASILY be said about you and Dourgrim.

[GIEFF]

I think town-panzer might actually give us more information than scum-birthday. While, in retrospect, it's always better to lynch scum, we don't know their alignments...

What information would town-panzer give? What information would scum-Birthday give?



I mention what you have said you think of me so that you realize that I am telling the truth when I say I think your Goat-banter is hurting the town. It is preventing both you and Goat from pursuing the best possible lynch candidate, which Goat assuredly is not, and which you very likely are not.

If anybody else thinks that the Zilla-Goat discussions are pro-town, or that Goat is a viable lynch candidate, please speak up.

Also, the same could EASILY be said about you and Dourgrim.

My latest long post toward Dourgrim was on a completely different subject than our original back-and-forth.