Martyr Mafia - Game Over

[SilverPhoenix]

unvote, vote dgb

I tried to recruit Jebus last night and failed. If he isn't a cult leader, that means

he's either a cult recruit or Nietzsche.

That's not the way it works exactly. If two cults try to cult the same person, the third cult gets the recruit. If all three cults try to recruit the same person, the person doesn't get recruited at all. (This was from the signup thread in case you were wondering) So in order, he is cult leader, then Nietzsche, then recruit. If he is indeed Nietzsche, you have outed him because you said he isn't God. Great job. (I guess this goes along with you wanting God to win <_<)

I was wondering if a cult would find Nietzsche/another cult leader the first night. Sad to know it actually happened.

Note that I'm 51% inclined to actually believe this claim, considering that your first claim was false. Especially since you do what zwet said you might do right after he posted.

[zwetschenwasser]

I like this very much ^^^

[SilverPhoenix]

I really hope Jebus isn't Nietzsche when we lynch him tomorrow.

I really hope that Jebus isn't cult leader, because then the agnostics will

LOSE

OUTRIGHT

......if qwints is indeed leader.

[zwetschenwasser]

Why? Won't we be much closer to win if Jebus is cult leader?

[SilverPhoenix]

Why? Won't we be much closer to win if Jebus is cult leader?

Not if both of them are cult leaders, because then there will only be one cult left and they will win and end the game. I thought I said that already....

[xofelf]

I really hope Jebus isn't Nietzsche when we lynch him tomorrow.

I really hope that Jebus isn't cult leader, because then the agnostics will

LOSE

OUTRIGHT

......if qwints is indeed leader.

Oooh good point. we'll just have to see i guess. because no lynch would be worse i think.

[zwetschenwasser]

Oops...

[X]

I'm the Christian cult leader

And you guys were going to believe he was a recruit...

lynching me doesn't do agnostics any good.

I beg to differ.

I tried to recruit Jebus last night and failed. If he isn't a cult leader, that means he's either a cult recruit or Nietzsche.

I'm part of the way to believing this...although I'm still flabbergasted that he would tell us this truthfully.

Assuming that I am about to be lynched, I see facilitating a god win as a plus for my role.

Changing your win condition (like, against the mod's wishes) = fail.

[zwetschenwasser]

OMG!!! LYNCH QUINTS NOW!!!

[X]

I really should use the preview button more consistently.

Anyway, if Jebus is Nietzsche or a CL we don't want him dead. Let's hope he's a recruit (or that qwints is lying scum, and just screwing around in his dying moments).

In the meantime, ZSW's wanting to kill Jebus was a little scary.

[zwetschenwasser]

I forgot that the third cult would win. Gurgi really did a good job balancing this game, didn't he?

[xofelf]

A little too good i'd say....

[SilverPhoenix]

I forgot that the third cult would win. Gurgi really did a good job balancing this game, didn't he?

Well, the cults in this game are different cults. Traditionally, cults need to comprise of 50% of the remaining players to win. Gurgi's changes really makes the game interesting, as now the cults want to out each, but not God, but not appear to be cults, but get good recruits. Very balanced, I think.

[X]

Unofficial:

qwints --- 9 {Bloodmoney, Jebus, zwetschenwasser, SilverPhoenix, DrippingGoofball, pacman281292, X, xofelf, ortolan}

As a side note, does DGB usually revote someone? I realized that she revoted for qwints, and then looked back - of her 7 votes, 3 of them were (in effect) "Unvote: A, Vote: A."

Very balanced, I think.

I would say so.

[ortolan]

I just re-read mostly the posts after my latest post to get a feel for whether qwints is telling the truth in his latest claim or not. Just as he made up that he was recruit initially, he may also be fabricating his latest cult leader claim.

660 was particularly scummy- voting a "useless" player, who clearly isn't God, and on the back of his lurking to boot.

Agreed that Bloodmoney looks culty for 704 also.

Basically qwints needs to be hammered immediately before day ends.

He's either cult leader or God. If he's God we win. If he's cult leader and telling the truth then tomorrow we will have 18 players total- 2 cult leaders, maximum of 4 cult recruits, and God. 7/18. Thus agnostics will still have a majority. Thus we can still God-hunt tomorrow. Hammer him immediately please, the fact he hasn't had more votes pile on him by now increases the chance he's actually God.

[ortolan]

And also I fully acknowledge that hammering a cult leader not only increases agnostics' chances of winning, but all the other factions apart from qwints' also. But this is good for everyone except qwints.

Hammer.

[Lord Gurgi]

^_^

[ortolan]

What does that mean?

[Lord Gurgi]

It's a happy face. I am happy with the praise.

[Lord Gurgi]

The Twelfth "I love the butt kissing" Votecount:

"Order of creatures in God's world:
1. Man
2. Dog
3. Ox
4. Horse
5. Woman"
----Bible

Bloodmoney --- 0 {None}
DrippingGoofball --- 3 {al_kohaulec, Erratus Apathos, qwints}
Erratus Apathos --- 0 {None}
Jahudo --- 0 {None}
Jebus --- 0 {None}
mask man --- 0 {None}
mykonian --- 0 {None}
ortolan --- 0 {None}
pacman281292 --- 0 {None}
populartajo --- 0 {None}
qwints --- 9 {Bloodmoney, Jebus, zwetschenwasser, SilverPhoenix, DrippingGoofball, pacman281292, X, xofelf, ortolan}
SilverPhoenix --- 0 {None}
Indigo Heron --- 0 {None}
xofelf --- 1 {Ting =)}
Ting =) --- 0 {None}
Double A --- 0 {None}
X --- 0 {None}
al_kohaulec --- 0 {None}
Zakeri --- 1 {populartajo}
zwetschenwasser --- 0 {None}

Not Voting --- 6 {Zakeri, mask man, Double A, mykonian, Indigo Heron, Jahudo}

Eleven votes to lynch. The deadline is on February 21st at 4:00 PM PST.

Thumb twiddling contest!

Disclaimer: This is just flavour, anything you think you're getting from it, you're not. There's nothing here to get. Go away.

V/LA noted for Popular Tajo and Ting =)

[qwints]

Changing your win condition (like, against the mod's wishes) = fail.

I certainly acknowledge that I lose if I'm lynched. The only way I win is to be the last cult leader alive. But I think it's reasonable to prefer losing once (i.e. I'm lynched, but god wins) to losing twice (I'm lynched and god is killed.)

So my motivation for my claim/outing of Jebus was twofold: 1) Try something crazy to prevent my lynch and 2)Try to avoid fulfilling two losing conditions.

Agnostics should avoid lynching me (assuming they believe me) because anyone can claim CL and threaten an insta-loss to all agnostics once I'm dead. Furthermore they risk Nietzsche hitting a cult leader with his one shot ability.

The other cults, on the other hand, unequivocally want me dead because this puts them one lynch/kill away from a victory.

*I thought that an agnostic who was recruited by all 3 cults would die from the effect, but I might be misremembering that.

[qwints]

hmm,

prior probability of Jebus being Nietzsche = 1/19
prior probability of Jebus being cult leader = 2/19
prior probability of Jebus being agnostic = 16/19

likelihood of failing to recruit Jebus given Nietzsche = 1
likelihood of failing to recruit Jebus given cult leader = 1
likelihood of failing to recruit Jebus = likelihood Jebus was recruited by other CL

Likelihood of Jebus being recruited by other CL = 1 - (% Islam didn't recruit * % Jews didn't recruit)
If random, that = 1- (18/19*18/19) = 10.25%

Prior times likelihood of Jebus(N) = 1/19
Prior times likelihood of Jebus (CL) = 2/19
Prior times likelihood of Jebus (R) = 8.6%
Total prior times likelihood = 24%

So that means
Jebus(N) = 20%
Jebus(CL) = 44%
Jebus(R) = 36%

Of course, God knows whether Jebus is or is not a cult leader, so for God it's about 60/40 that Jebus is a recruit if Jebus is not a cult leader.

[Jahudo]

Vote: qwints

to L-1

[ortolan]

I honestly feel the fact qwints hasn't garnered votes at a furious pace indicates he may still be God. If qwints is telling the truth, then *all* the other factions apart from his own have reason to vote him, so I'm suspicious of everyone not jumping on him even quicker.

The fact that others can WIFOM us by claiming cult leader is the least of our worries- it's not like this game was ever going to be smooth-sailing for any faction.

[qwints]

Here are the possible situations we are now in:

Jebus(R)
Cult A has 2 recruits including Jebus
Cult B has 0 recruits and knows that Jebus is most likely a recruit
I have no recruits

I would argue agnostics should prefer my survival to ensure a more balanced game.

Jebus (CL)
Cult Jebus has 0-1 (5:1 that it's 1) recruits
Cult B has 0-1 (5:1 that it's 1) recruits

In this situation, the agnostics leaving me alive only risks one more recruit which is not that dangerous

Jebus (N)
Game ends tonight with God's nk unless you lynch God.