Mini 763 - Carnival Mafia - Game Over

[VP Baltar]

Vote: DDD

because his avatar is Bullshit!

[VP Baltar]

For now I'll Unvote. Vote: Datadanne. I kinda dislike double posts. If it were meaningful posts I could live with it, but at the moment his comments on this game seem a bit erratic.

Do you think double posting is scummy behavior? Being erratic?

[VP Baltar]

So, to prevent that, I request that everyone weigh in (if you haven't already) on the Datadanne situation and your views on random voting. Let's get this ball really rolling, peeps. :p

meh.

Also, sounds like you are trying to direct the discussion towards Data while sort of playing both sides of the argument until town form an opinion.

[VP Baltar]

Frankly, he is the main topic of discussion at the moment, and a rather important one too, seeing as he has the most votes of us all (and the only serious ones too).

And what you might think of as playing both sides is just me injecting my thoughts in, because even though I wasn't directly involved, I thought I'd contribute, rather than sit back until I was addressed.

My main concern was not so much you interjecting your opinions as it was the way in which you did it:

I do agree that prolonging random stages is not a desirable thing to do, but the initial stage itself is important to the game. Although, I don't really think that Datadanne is consciously making an attempt at prolonging said stage, because it doesn't seem forced. It's probably just their personality type, and I don't think that it's near enough ground to lynch or vote.

And, on the other side of this argument, I don't think that Kairyuu or any of the other Datadanne instigators are acting particularly scummy either, just taking him a little too seriously.

I don't see datadanne's pointless comments in essentially the RVS as "rather important" (reference 'meh'). What is more important is you agreeing that Datadanne isn't doing anything really scummy and also saying that his attackers also are not scummy. Furthermore, you encourage the rest of the players to comment on this nonsense...ie you're playing both sides and spurring on what i see as a pointless discussion. Is that more clear?

[VP Baltar]

My first game (out of three) on the site had scum (my partner) lynched on Day 1 due to logic. Ergo, it is plausible and calling for a policy lynch on page 3 seems like you are needlessly trying to end discussion. Datadanne being pointlessly lynched as a powerrole in other games further supports why we should not policy lynch him for no real reason at this point. Doing so could seriously derail town's chances of winning if he is some sort of PR (no need to discuss this further btw) or even VT.

I move that we focus on finding other scum and leave the data situation until we have more substantial evidence.

Vote stands for suggesting a bad idea.

[VP Baltar]

Nocmen post 69 is money.

DDD at this point I have yet to hear a single person agree with your half cocked theory, so I'm starting to wonder at what point you will let this go so we can move on. I have never played with Data so I have no clue what his style is. The game you describe with him as doc does sound awful, but who's to say he didn't learn from that. If he does play that awful then his lynch is inevitable.

On the most basic level if the lynch is truly random (irrelevant of postings in this particular game) then the odds of hitting scum are the same and so anyone could be substituted in. However, despite raising the percentage of hitting scum there remains a significant chance of hitting a townie. Hence why Datadanne was chosen, in the case that the random lynch does fail the town has lost it's least useful asset.

You're trying to proffer this data lynch as truly random, and that is utterly false. You are basing it off of his meta and the limited posts he made in this game (he was gone on LA this weekend remember?)

Because you are doing this, you are not even really following your own mathmatics...just using bad logic to get a quick lynch in. Might I also say that at this point we have no clue what the night kill situation is going to look like. What if there is more than one night kill (no need to speculate further than this) and they all hit town...we'd be out three town with almost no information.

Furthermore, you somehow feel that your experience of six games on MS is somehow representative of the site in general. This is highly doubtful and noone has any reason to believe it is. While I appreciate you have a unique theory and are trying a different approach, without a substansive bit of research (ie cross-section of hundreds of different games) there is no way to tell if your hypothesis is statistically accurate.

The plan you are presenting about us lynching data while still having some sort of side discussion, again, does not make much sense to me. So, you are saying that we continue to look for someone scummy, narrow it down...and then let them live? How does this make sense? If someone acts scummy, you lynch them. If data ends up being the scummiest player at the end of Day 1, then by all means lets get out the rope, but we can't possibly know that until we get to that point. Plus, I think the scum would be much less likely to make errors if they knew 100% for sure that they weren't going to be killed today.

A Datadanne bandagon on the other hand will contain basically no useful information because his play is so poor that everyone has easy cover on the bandwagon because of that.

Well that is..just...wrong. Info can be garnered from who is on the wagon, how passionately they push it, when they vote, and for what reasons. Are you not providing an even easier cover than might normally happen by pushing a policy lynch ?

Data, now that you are back, I suggest that you make some serious posts apart from OMGUSing DDD without much explanation. What do you think of ChiefSkye? WeyounsLastClone? Myself? Please take this game seriously if you are actually town and care about winning.

In other news (sorry for the long post, but may as well let it all out now):

ChiefSkye, why no vote?

Need to hear more from lixyl and TCold.

[VP Baltar]

Also of note:

Random chance should yield a correct lynch ratio of around 25%

I don't like you backing out of saying it's random because that seemed to be an important part of your argument, and random in this particular game would yield an 8.33% chance of lynching scum--not 25%. I'm curious where you even got that number from.

if we look at the games I've played only which is verifiable if you like the number is 0/6, add on VP's verifiable 1/3 and we're at 1/9 or 11%, still not even half as good as a random lynch.

so based on the actual numbers, we do statistically have a better chance of lynching via logic than random voting.

Also, everyone should be aware that DDD is currently at L-1. Please mind your votes.

Weyouns, please answer my earlier questions about double posting and if you think it is a scumtell.

[VP Baltar]

OK DDD, I understand what you are saying about players like that being annoying. I just finished a game with zwet and he cost the town a win because I subbed in at lylo and he looked the scummiest. He was lynched and Mafia got an easy win. I totally understand that it is frustrating, but in a 12 player game I (and it seems most of the other players) feel that policy lynching, disguised as random lynching, is truly the sub-optimal strategy.

Also, we have a number of players not even discussing at this point. I think they need to make some substantial posts in the very near future.

[VP Baltar]

ok, granted.

Unvote

[VP Baltar]

1 divided by 12 (a random picking of who to vote) = 8.33%

I think the correct play at this immediate moment is to give DDD a defense post and wait for the several people who have contributed little to nothing at this point a chance to say something. You rushing the claim is noted though Kairyuu.

[VP Baltar]

Well I guess we don't know how many scum are in the game, so the odds would go up appropriately.

Also, pies will be thrown.

Awww, I prefer over cooked waffles or something a little more damaging.

[VP Baltar]

@ Kairyuu and DDD

Please see post 93 which immediately followed my blunder of saying it was an 8.33% chance. Well I will just repost the important part for your ease:

Well I guess we don't know how many scum are in the game, so the odds would go up appropriately.

After making my original post I quickly realized that my math was wrong because it only factored in there being one scum. I have no idea how many there are, but you guys are most likely closer to being correct at 25% than I am. Guess it is best to think things through before posting.

[VP Baltar]

Honestly, I wasn't even thinking about the number of scum. I was thinking about you saying a random selection of a person (datadanne)...as in 1 out of 12 (which is actually 11 as corrected by WLC).

you don't realize your mistake until over ten posts later and after it was questioned at about an hour later when you correct in post 93 @ 8:49.

Yes, Kai did question me where I got my number from, but if you look at the posts I made it is pretty evident I realized myself where my error was coming from. I misinterpreted Kai's question as in 'explain your math' when he was really saying 'there are probably more than one scum'.

[VP Baltar]

Post something with content or you need to be replaced whether you like it or not.

[VP Baltar]

Unvote: Chief
Vote: DDD

After reading over the pages of discussion (Which I haven't been able to participate in, sorry, school has been giving me hell in the past 2 weeks), my current vote stands as such for now.

Care to elaborate a reason behind your vote? It seems as if you just were jumping on a wagon.

Agreed. For someone who has contributed nothing to this game, you certainly drop your vote on a convenient wagon.

Vote:lixyl

[VP Baltar]

So you utterly reject a math error in calculating your "random" theory as a possibility?

[VP Baltar]

@data praise the gods. Thanks Shanba, and welcome!

[VP Baltar]

Checking in for a pre-work post. Last few days have been crazy and haven't been able to find the time to post content.

I have been keeping up, however, and I will say that I agree with the Chief case for the most part. Some of those points I have brought up earlier, and the over explination of her posts comes across as scummy to me as well.

Weyouns has been sticking out to me as a gut reaction lately, but I need to look into more specifically why.

I'm against the Nocumen case based on something that really smelled town to me earlier in the game.

For now my vote is staying, at least until Grimmy checks in and gives us some content (and irreverent humour )

I'll try and find some free time tonight.

[VP Baltar]

PBPA on WLC

7~Random vote--null
27~OMGUS vote on Datadanne for double posting (what a crime!)--slightly scummy
62~says he does not want a policy lynch of Data (vote remains, total votes at 3), mildly questions DDD vote plan--overall null
65~questions what will happen if data flips town, will DDD not be the next target? Says he wouldn't want it to happen if he was town or scum.Says bussing is a possibility, but highly unlikely. --wonder why bussing would be that unlikely, but null overall
66~confused as to the reason for this double post and if WLC would chastise himself for it--scummy by WLC standards
99~corrects player count (useful). Says he doesn't agree with DDD's approach (vote remains, only he remains at this point not even DDD is voting). Says DDD shouldn't be at L-1 early in the game and should not role claim. protown suggestion, but a safe bet considering other players had already said it. Says double posting is not a sign of scum, but then explains how it might be.--bordering on scummy
107~Tells Data to post content--null
124~defends my math slip (obvtown!), thoughts on meta (not really content), and then I will just quote this part:

I would rather like to see more people pressure Datadanne. Perhaps if he could be put at L-3 or L-2 he would either start to talk, or would be pissed and ask for a replacement, either which is good for the game. So I'll leave my vote where it is now, and hope more people follow. Otherwise I'd change my vote to lixyl, who posts one sentence conveniently joining the most common bandwagon at that moment.

obvscum! simulpost with data asking for replacement, but still trying to push that rock. Asks for town to follow on a player with no real content when other discussions could have been joined (ortolan, nocumen, DDD and I all had such going), and then says that if that wagon doesn't gain momentum he'll just jump to lixyl. --most scummy post he made all game

125~glad Data is gone (who wasn't)--null
142~unvotes Shanba because his cases are more protown. switches vote to Grimmy for lixyl actions. Apart from switching votes to someone before they posted in a game, I found it odd that that this is finally the point he would decide to switch his vote after leaving it on the basically none present Data all day.--slightly scummy

I'm somewhat torn over the case overall, but willing to see where it goes.

Unvote, Vote:WeyounsLastClone

[VP Baltar]

My role PM is pretty clear as to who town needs to eliminate to win, Nocmen. This is truly damning evidence against you. I had you pegged as town because of you saying this in your first post:

And by the way, is anyone hungry?

Thought it might have been a breadcrumb, but now I'm really starting to believe you either really were making lunch or you were trying to set yourself up for a safeclaim later if you got in trouble.

Scum Nocmen most likely read the opening post of the thread,

I must warn you of the happenings of late: my two best performers are battling for popularity. The Joker and The Puppeteer having been cutthroat, trying to steal each other's fans...

and assumed there were two scum groups against town. I understand you not wanting to quote your pm, fair enough, but you should have been able to state from the town pm that there is only one scum group mentioned, not two as in the flavor of the game opening.

Unvote, Vote:Nocmen

(L-3) I think we could use some more pressure here.

[VP Baltar]

Nocmen, could you explain to me why you think that you as town would speculate (and seemingly believe) that there are two scum groups, and yet feel that I, who you believe to be a part of said scum, would not be able to have a similar idea? Why would it be more obvious to town than scum what the setup may or may not be, given that town is the uninformed majority and scum is the informed minority?

[VP Baltar]

Yessir. Mine basically says to lynch all puppeteers

and those in association with them

.

Bold by me. Anyone else find that part of the sentence interesting?

[VP Baltar]

*backs off shamed* Ok, let's not do anything against the rules. But people should just make note. Going to look at Chief some more this evening.

[VP Baltar]

Also, DDD where are you? You were quite vocal earlier and we haven't heard from you in nearly two days now.

Hope the game isn't broken that easy, Shanba. I was having fun.

[VP Baltar]

Nocmen claim now please.

[VP Baltar]

Simulpost...regardless, willing to believe the claim at this point. Chief is more confirmed scum in my eyes anyhow.

Unvote, Vote: ChiefSkye4

[VP Baltar]

LMFAO

Unvote, Vote ChiefSkye4

[VP Baltar]

I feel uneasy about (two?) scum apparently being caught so easily, especially in light of bastard mod warnings.

I guess it must suck to have your scum team destroyed so early.

Do

you

see any reason for someone to claim a role that has been already announced dead by the mod?

[VP Baltar]

Do you have any particular problem with extracting further information prior to a lynch in general VP Baltar?

nope, of course not. But I suppose it is better for Chief to answer your questions before you answering mine (and by answer I mean more than just quoting the mod). That being said, Chief is looking way scummy and unnecessary defences of her are likely scum buddies.

Leaning on Nocmen is less of a town tell than you think for me, I'm still back and forth on his being scummy or not. His claim may be true based on the breadcrumb I cited earlier. could be a safeclaim though, too. Chief, on the other hand, is all but confirmed.

[VP Baltar]

haha, you still going to push your theory DDD when Chief flips scum?

[VP Baltar]

haha, acceptance is the first stage of recovery.

[VP Baltar]

Penn is correct. Chief has ascended to the great gig in the sky.

[VP Baltar]

DDD--your awesomness is undercut by Chief's utter scumminess on day 1, but nice try for some compliments!

[VP Baltar]

I approve that message from Danny.

Vote WLC

Why should you vote Shanba even though you know he was joking?

Where were you after Chief came under suspicion?

In fact, looking back at the posts, your last post on Day 1 was #142. I made a PBPA of you in post 145 and you never came back the rest of the day to answer or make any contribution to the game whatsoever.

[VP Baltar]

It was pretty clear that Shanba was teasing DDD about his plan for lynching day 1. Not sure why you didn't get that since you participated in that discussion (before you disappeared).

[VP Baltar]

One thing I think you should look at Kairyuu is Nocmen's interaction with Chief yesterday. I looked back over it and it comes off town to me. He was one of the first to push chief for her slip ups.

That being said, ortolan was also suspect of him. Could be a scum ploy to draw attention to Nocmen though with that kill, since Nocmen had some suspicious statements about alignment.

Weyouns, do you care to respond to my PBPA or do I need to formulate questions for you?

[VP Baltar]

Convenient, VPB, that you don't mention that Nocmen was posting about your slip-up in estimating the number of scum.

Yes, I tend not to bring up irrelevant facts. If you would like to lynch me because my math is awful, then I suppose there isn't much I can do.

I would as you this as well, however: if I was scum, why would I be defending someone who is suspicious of me when I could easily push for his lynch?

[VP Baltar]

Dear scum, please kill the following two persons....

*fixed*
Why the hell would you say that even if you believe it? I would policy lynch you if WLC wasn't obvscum.

[VP Baltar]

reading emp's posts I don't see anything that indicates he has an investigative power, nor do I think we should be speculating on it until the town comes to an agreement that we should do so.

[VP Baltar]

Wait, WLC has a double vote?!?!?!?

[VP Baltar]

Yeah, just waiting for clarification.

MODEDIT: Yes, it was an error. It has been found and corrected. ~SP

[VP Baltar]

The thing that really shocked me, Shinnen, is that he did see the smiley... and didn't unvote! I just can't fathom...

This.

@Nocmen

I will reprint post 233 since you don't want to look for it:

I approve that message from Danny. Vote WLC

Why should you vote Shanba even though you know he was joking?

Where were you after Chief came under suspicion?

In fact, looking back at the posts, your last post on Day 1 was #142. I made a PBPA of you in post 145 and you never came back the rest of the day to answer or make any contribution to the game whatsoever.

Please read post 145 if you want the PBPA on WLC.

Checked his posting as well and he was active in both War of Heaven II (as he said) and Newbie 760 from the time that he disappeared in this game to the start of day 2.

[VP Baltar]

125~glad Data is gone (who wasn't)--null
142~unvotes Shanba because his cases are more protown. switches vote to Grimmy for lixyl actions. Apart from switching votes to someone before they posted in a game, I found it odd that that this is finally the point he would decide to switch his vote after leaving it on the basically none present Data all day.--slightly scummy

Not much to say here, I guess.

I think there are a few questions here you could answer. Why did you vote Grimmy before he had even posted in the game? Why did you switch your vote off of Shanba so easily if you really thought Data was scummy before he was replaced?

As far as the other cases you think I should be pursuing:
DDD--didn't read his random idea as that scummy per se, more just like an ill-conceived plan
Lixyl--I actually think I had my vote here for a short while, but I still haven't seen enough Grimmy to form an opinion yet. lixyl could have just been a bad player.
DD--was unhelpful, but not scummy at all. Shanba has been pretty town so far. No reason to pursue this.
Nocmen--still torn, but I've been leaning town and have made that clear.

Seems to me like you are my best suspect right now.

@DDD re: post 223--Nocmen claimed in day one and suggested a money component to his role. Emp does not have any inside knowledge.

[VP Baltar]

Are you trying to get lynched, DDD?

[VP Baltar]

Let's say for posterity's sake you wanted to state your reasons for voting Nocment, DDD. What would they be?

[VP Baltar]

Shanba, it was you who made the case on Grimmy I think, do you think he should be today's lynch? WLC? DDD?

[VP Baltar]

I think we are probably thinking along the same lines Kairyuu. I think people need to be a bit more cautious in voting him just because he is being annoying.

[VP Baltar]

DDD, why did you switch your vote to Nocmen from WLC?

[VP Baltar]

At this point, I find VP Baltar quite suspicious. I feel he's a bit grasping at straws, and he tries to have other people decide who to lynch (which clears him if the lynch might turn wrong).

Would love to hear this explained a bit more.

Everyone should ignore DDD right now, imo.

[VP Baltar]

So are you claiming cop, vig, or scum with this one?

I'm not claiming anything, and you shouldn't be rolefishing. I have an idea of what you are in this game, and everyone should ignore your really bad play. You don't come off to me as a dullard, so I think it's intentional bad play on your part and that is everyone should be ignoring you right now and focusing on finding scum.

[VP Baltar]

The reason I think people should be ignoring you right now DDD is that your play is atrocious. I also think your play has shifted quite drastically from day 1 to a much more anti-town position.

Additionally, you've yet to specifically state why you think Nocmen should be the lynch today. This is another reason for people to disregard your positions at this time. If you want him lynched, then please specifically outline what about his role claim you think is lynch worthy.

[VP Baltar]

@DDD, Or Nocmen's confused about his role/has legitimate reason from the wording to believe it may change given the bastard mod warnings. Also, just for future reference, anti-town=/=scummy and should never be your only reason for lynching, imo.

However, it's a touch baffling that you claim to speak for the rest of this town on the matter, when it in fact appears that others are quite confused or have multiple possible reads. Why are you proposing that these other players stop seeking the truth and simply adopt your own version of it?

I have a theory on my multiple reads, and I don't think it is time to reveal that just yet. I never said that town had to follow my proposal (and in fact I don't know if they are), but I will continue to state my opinion on it. If town wants to lynch you, there is little i can do to stop it, but I am against it. WLC is a much better option.

Also, why are you arguing so adamantly for your own lynch?

[VP Baltar]

Ok, I will address the points which I think you are saying implicate me as scum Weyouns...but I'm pretty damn confused by your whole case. There are several things that you bring up in a way that seems to indicate you think they are scummy, but then you quickly undercut them and say they are null. If you don't think they are scummy, then why bring them up?

I see one of two options: 1) You are trying to pad a weak case. 2)You are trying to put ideas out there for people to potentially pick up on without sticking your own neck out there.

Regardless, here are the points where I think you are saying I am directly acting scummy.

Also, everyone should be aware that DDD is currently at L-1. Please mind your votes.

A bit of a strange thing to say, when you're one of the ones voting.

How is it strange not to want someone quick hammered? My vote was there because DDD was acting scummy...doesn't mean I wanted him dead before we got all of the possible information available out of him.

I found it strange he singled out my posts, and didn't really say why I was scummier than others.

You made some scummy actions and it was worthwhile to put a case on you. Your point?

Unvote, Vote:Nocmen (L-3) I think we could use some more pressure here.

This after he finds me suspicious for trying to pressure DD. I don't know why pressuring DD would be more scummy than pressuring Nocmen.

The case on DD was rubbish based on him acting like a moron. Nocmen actually warranted pressure at that time.

Simulpost...regardless, willing to believe the claim at this point. Chief is more confirmed scum in my eyes anyhow. Unvote, Vote: ChiefSkye4

LMFAO Unvote, Vote ChiefSkye4

These posts he made after each other with no posts in between. I'd think you'd remember switching your votes somehow.

Nope didn't. Your point?

Switches from Nocmen being really town, to being really scum, to being town again no day 2.

I thought Nocmen was town very early in the game until we had all the role pm talk. He made a seeming slip that indicated him as scum, however, once he claimed I started to lean town again on him because something he said much earlier in the game and after a reread I could see where he was coming from.

***We interupt this thought to bring you a special message****
Actually I'm reading over my posts here and I think post 136 sums up everything quite nicely. 1)Shows I'm suspicious of Chief very early in the day (in fact the post you pointed out shows I was one of the first to question her) 2) shows my case against you wasn't "out of the blue" as you are trying to claim 3) shows I thought Nocmen was town before the role pm talk.
****Welcome back to the show****

I think we should look at the paragraphs in question about Nocmen since I think a lot of people are just going "Hey, I remember that guy being questioned day 1, let's lynch him!"

How do you believe I've slipped up? I'm merely going based off of the flavor in the first post as a logical assumption as to how the roles in this game are distributed. The flavor sets up nicely for a single scum group, and I really think that VP slipped up with his own role trying to make odds and then correct them.

I actually think we should go straight to being explicit about this:

Nocmen, please read the last paragraph of your post 108 and tell me if you notice any inconsistencies between it and your role pm. No-one else answer this please.

I don't see how the two can be directly compared to each other, one is my role pm that states my win condition, and my last paragraph mentioned that I think there are two anti-town factions/persons, neither of which I'm a part of or am.

When I reread, I realized that Nocmen's suspicions of me were based on the flavor at the beginning of the game. He thought I was a SK based on this. People misinterpreted what he said (imo) as being related to his role pm. Also, I believe his role claim as town.

Moving on:

reading emp's posts I don't see anything that indicates he has an investigative power, nor do I think we should be speculating on it until the town comes to an agreement that we should do so.

Shanba, it was you who made the case on Grimmy I think, do you think he should be today's lynch? WLC? DDD?

These are examples what I meant with having someone else decide. Leaving things in others hands.

The thing about speculating whether or not emp had an investigative role is legit. I didn't agree with it, but if the town as a whole thought it was a plan then we could go ahead. The thing with Shanba was to gauge his opinions. I didn't ask an open ended question like 'hey everyone, who should we lynch?'. I asked about very specific people because I wanted to see his opinions on those specific persons.

Now, in that post you say I'm "leaving things in others hands", but really what you accused me of in your original vote post was this:

he tries to have other people decide who to lynch (which clears him if the lynch might turn wrong).

I think you are trying to play down what you originally said because you don't have good examples to back it up. Again I ask you to point out how I am asking others to decide the lynch so a scum me would be able to later absolve myself of it.

I don't know why he should reprimand DDD for rolefishing, while VP Baltar is constantly mentioning DDD's behavior but not saying anything specific, just beating around the bush. DDD was just as justified for his question, than VP is in his stance on DDD behavior (which I actually support).

I'm not sure if I'm understanding this correctly, you think I shouldn't tell him not to rolefish (which is what he was doing) because I think DDD is acting intentionally scummy? Also, what do you "actually support"?

Just incase you are not clear on what I am talking about with DDD's behavior, look back at his posts at the start of day 2 and watch how quickly he begins to rack up votes.

Ok, I think that is everything in your post that needed addressing. Let me know if I missed something.

[VP Baltar]

Well now that it is out there, I was thinking Jester for DDD as well. Given the pre-warned bastardization (sure it's a word) of this game by the mod, I don't think it's improbable.

Of course he's not going to claim Grimmy, but I think if we have a night killing element who has been sitting back...there is your first target.

Sorry for the double post.

[VP Baltar]

Well frankly DDD, if you are some sort of politician role then I think we should just kill you and be done with it. However, I still believe you are a jester(Joker) whose role changed over night. It is clear from your reactions that you feel you are in power when people are focusing on you and are getting upset when I told everyone to ignore your idiocy. I say we continue to ignore you and let you wallow your way to a loss. At worst we will find out tonight if we have some sort of protown killing role because you would be a great target.

Lynch WLC!

[VP Baltar]

DDD, if you have any sort of win con that is pro-town, you need to claim now or we should just assume you are a jester trying to get yourself killed.

[VP Baltar]

Hence, you are being completely anti-town. You keep talking like you have a seperate win con than the rest of town (ie "I will make that decision as it suits me"). Right now it is in the best interest of town for you to claim what kind of role you have and how you determined something about Shanba being "the ringmaster". Stop being so obstinate.

[VP Baltar]

Jester lynch is not good, Emp....look up the role.

[VP Baltar]

If DDD won everyone voting him deserves a prostate exam with a pineapple.

[VP Baltar]

Whoa whoa whoa, Kairyuu, DDD did not play

us

well. I tried to tell everyone multiple times he was trying to get himself lynched.

Who's going to be the first to bend over for that pineapple?

Anyway, notice how WLC did his disappearing act again yesterday, only to appear after the lynch and try to look town?

Vote: WLC

[VP Baltar]

Actually

Unvote

We don't need scum coming in for a quick lynch here if I'm wrong. Who is Shanba's partner?

[VP Baltar]

Thoughts on who the scum may be, Nocmen?

[VP Baltar]

I have never heard of a sibling role. I looked it up on the wiki and it said they can night talk and when one dies the other will die the next night. I don't know if this sibling role is any different, but if it's the same they should at least come forward and share any info they may have.

If a sibling dies tonight and we mislynch, it would put town in really bad position tomorrow, imo. I think we have time to at least let everyone check in before we string up WLC.

[VP Baltar]

lol, there certainly has to be some kind of higher power up there.


I'm not sure about the Shanba "leaving" thing. I thought it was weird too, but I have no real guesses what it means at this point.

[VP Baltar]

Noc, I was actually considering the possibility of Data/Shanba being the odd day jester while the game was in the night phase, considering how foolishly data acted on day1.

That actually seems to fit with why Shanba would just "leave" the carnival now that DDD was dead.

Emp, why did you come out of the blue and put DDD at L-1 yesterday even though I was saying repeatedly that he was a jester?

[VP Baltar]

A jester kill without him winning would have been better.

Anyhow, let's see if Weyouns will show up now.

Vote WLC

[VP Baltar]

Well, the leaving thing seems weird, but I don't think now is the time to be fishing for a protection role to come forward.

FoS Grimmy

[VP Baltar]

What concerns me is that the wiki says the sibling role is typically a cop-goon link. Don't know if that is really the case here, but clearly Shanba would be the town side of that equation and if they could night talk he might have shared information that is detrimental to town.

[VP Baltar]

Why?

Also, who do you think the scum is Emp?

[VP Baltar]

Are you basing that suspicion of Nocmen on his alleged "slip" on D1, because if so I suggest you read what he really meant again.

If that's not what you are basing it on, please elaborate.

[VP Baltar]

Well in terms of opinions, I think it is possible that there wasn't a night kill last night and DDD could have been the sibling (ie, Shanba possibly was an odd day Jester), but I really have nothing of substance to back up such an idea.

[VP Baltar]

You mean that you were in agreement with me yesterday that people should have been ignoring him?

[quote="Empking"]
We would've lynched day one if that was the case. [/quote
We did lynch day one.

[VP Baltar]

Then why didn't you speak up! Nobody was listening to me and clearly I was correct. What I don't understand is why so many people were thinking he was a jester and still decided his lynch was a good idea.

[VP Baltar]

Emp, I understand that you are incapable of expressing your point. And you are the one who is incorrect about the Jester. DDD won the game.

If a Jester is lynched before any other faction has won, the game will usually continue to determine second place.

[VP Baltar]

So, then we need the other sibling to come forward, correct Kairyuu?

[VP Baltar]

In that case, Emp was correct about the Jester lynch. (Although personally, I would have still liked to see DDD not get a win on his record for such obvious jester play).

Moving on, the Emp case is the usual emp case in many games. He's useless, he's a distraction to town, blah blah blah.

However, given the theory that we might have a scum suicide tonight, policy lynching Emp in this case may be useful. One thing I really didn't like was the way he came in yesterday and effectively cut all discussion short by voting DDD. I think if the town could have talked a bit more, we might have figured out what was going on.

Also, WLC still needs to answer my question about why he didn't say anything yesterday if he really believed DDD was a jester.

[VP Baltar]

It's your opinion that you are more useful than Shinnen, I disagree.


DDD's playstyle had dramatically shifted over night and if we had been given a chance to see another day with him I think we would have been able to figure it out. You made the assumption we didn't have a vig just because there was no kill on N1. Plenty of viges would hold off until they were sure in a small game like this. I'm just very much against impromptu lynches I guess. There was some minor discussion going on and it could have developed given a chance. You coming in and deciding for the town that it was pointless for the day to continue was pretty reckless and anti-town, boarding on scummy.

[VP Baltar]

What has Shin done that was useful?

She has asked many pertinent questions, and was the first person on Chief's wagon. Highly doubtful she was bussing.

DDD's playstyle had dramatically shifted over night and if we had been given a chance to see another day with him I think we would have been able to figure it out.

Says the main "he's a jester" person.

Yes, exactly. I don't get what you are saying here.

If I was wrong and we do have a vig, I'll be very surprised.

At this point I doubt we have a vig, but it still could have been a possibility yesterday. How were you so certain that we did not?

How was it Impromptu?

Because it happened very quickly, imo. Day 1=9 pages. Day 2=5 pages. That means day 2 was barely half of day 1, which in itself was very brief because Chief made such a blunder. I call that pretty impromptu.

(Discussion) coluldn't have developed and its not scummy due to it being a pro-town action.

Perhaps you can peer into your crystal ball and see who the scum are since you are able to definitively state that the discussion wasn't going anywhere.

[VP Baltar]

I really have no inclination to get into a quote war. Nocmen is not scum, and if you actually read what went down D1 it is pretty obvious that the case against him is based on a misinterpretation of something he said.

I don't see how being assured that DDD was a Jester was inhibiting the town from figuring out that fact.

Your point about Noc being vigged holds water I suppose since so many other players thought he was scum at that point.

Your point about wagons is complete conjecture and not true, imo. It changes from game to game and I think the lynch was premature yesterday.

It's a fact that discussion would have continued to develop if the day hadn't ended. That's what people do when the day continues, they talk about things. You cut short any possibility of further information by allowing DDD to self-hammer. That's another fact, but you can continue to deny that if you'd like.

[VP Baltar]

Sorry, should have been more specific. You denied it cut off what could have been useful discussion.

[VP Baltar]

I really don't like how everyone is satisfied with the DDD lynch.

Do you consider that a scumtell?

@Kairyuu--Considering we have no idea how many scum are in this game it is a bit hard to speculate whether we would be in lylo or not tomorrow...of course, I guess it's better to just assume that.

[VP Baltar]

Ok, here's where I think the town sits right now.

VP Baltar-obvtown
Nocmen-likely town (popcorn vendor)
Shinnen_no_Me-probably town
Kairyuu-likely town


Grimmy-possible scum
Empking-possible scum
WLC-likely scum

I like our odds right now and think WLC is most certainly the best choice at this point. If my list is correct, then there is pretty much no way town can lose. I'm also thinking massclaim (with an order determined by the town before hand) might be a good idea at this point. Thoughts anyone?

[VP Baltar]

I suppose, Kairyuu. At this point though I kind of feel like if anyone has any information that is going to lead us directly to scum it might be best not to risk having them die over night and us never find out. The tide is in town's favor and I would prefer to improve that lead if we could.

[VP Baltar]

PBPA on WLC

7~Random vote--null
27~OMGUS vote on Datadanne for double posting (what a crime!)--slightly scummy
62~says he does not want a policy lynch of Data (vote remains, total votes at 3), mildly questions DDD vote plan--overall null
65~questions what will happen if data flips town, will DDD not be the next target? Says he wouldn't want it to happen if he was town or scum.Says bussing is a possibility, but highly unlikely. --wonder why bussing would be that unlikely, but null overall
66~confused as to the reason for this double post and if WLC would chastise himself for it--scummy by WLC standards
99~corrects player count (useful). Says he doesn't agree with DDD's approach (vote remains, only he remains at this point not even DDD is voting). Says DDD shouldn't be at L-1 early in the game and should not role claim. protown suggestion, but a safe bet considering other players had already said it. Says double posting is not a sign of scum, but then explains how it might be.--bordering on scummy
107~Tells Data to post content--null
124~defends my math slip (obvtown!), thoughts on meta (not really content), and then I will just quote this part:

I would rather like to see more people pressure Datadanne. Perhaps if he could be put at L-3 or L-2 he would either start to talk, or would be pissed and ask for a replacement, either which is good for the game. So I'll leave my vote where it is now, and hope more people follow. Otherwise I'd change my vote to lixyl, who posts one sentence conveniently joining the most common bandwagon at that moment.

obvscum! simulpost with data asking for replacement, but still trying to push that rock. Asks for town to follow on a player with no real content when other discussions could have been joined (ortolan, nocumen, DDD and I all had such going), and then says that if that wagon doesn't gain momentum he'll just jump to lixyl. --most scummy post he made all game

125~glad Data is gone (who wasn't)--null
142~unvotes Shanba because his cases are more protown. switches vote to Grimmy for lixyl actions. Apart from switching votes to someone before they posted in a game, I found it odd that that this is finally the point he would decide to switch his vote after leaving it on the basically none present Data all day.--slightly scummy

I'm somewhat torn over the case overall, but willing to see where it goes.

Unvote, Vote:WeyounsLastClone

Ok Shinnen, that is the post I made on WLC early on day 1. It is anything but an airtight case on him, but it is a start. I would note however that he did completely disappear after I posted this case and Chief came under fire.

Then he pops up again on day 2 and tries to vote Shanba (confirmed town) over a joking post at DDD's expense, and when he realizes it is a joke he still keeps his vote there!

He then builds a very odd "case" on me in post 303, which I refute. He never returns to answer any of the weaknesses in his case that I bring up. Drops in conveniently after the DDD lynch to say "Stop, people shouldn't lynch him!"

Day 3 has seen some minor interjections from WLC, but nothing that indicates strong town to me. He also hasn't answered why he didn't say anything on Day 2 if he was in agreement with me that DDD was a jester and should be ignored.

Who do you think the lynch should be today Shinnen?

[VP Baltar]

EBWOP: I'm pretty sure that I can back my towniness if that makes you feel better Kairyuu. I agree that WLC should be the first to claim. Popcorn works for me as well.

[VP Baltar]

Why in that specific order Shinnen?

[VP Baltar]

I think I'm good with Kairyuu's suggestion. It actually seems more preferable to have the more townie players claim first because in the off chance that one of us is scum it will be more likely to be exposed. The more scummy players will likely try to imitate afterwards, but if K and I can demonstrate our townieness we should be good. So, unless Shinnen objects, the order will be Emp, Kairyuu, myself, Shinnen, Grimmy, WLC...correct?

[VP Baltar]

We agreed on an order to the claims, Emp. It's not WLC's turn. I find it highly suspicious that you 'made a mistake' in telling us your night actions.

Why did you choose those specific targets?

[VP Baltar]

Wow, a vote simply because I question your claim. jumpscumjump.

[VP Baltar]

Wow, a vote simply because I question your claim. jumpscumjump.

Proof please.

What more proof do I need than your vote with little to no reason that is up there?

It also seems less than likely to me that we would have two tracker style roles in such a small game. It's possible, but I think it would be dependent upon what kind of PRs the scum have.

Kairyuu can go ahead, but I think if Weyouns is around at all he should claim as soon as he checks the thread. It would help your credibility the sooner you claim.

[VP Baltar]

His protection of Shin and the fact that Shin and VPB share a completely ridiculous view point.

That was your reason for voting me, Emp. Given that I haven't really seen much of anything scummy from Shinnen this whole game, it seems like a grasping reason to me. There isn't much proof in mafia, so your demand for it is quite ridiculous. I do consider your reason "zero reasoning" other than me questioning your claim.

Wow. That was a quick change, wasn't it?

Well, WLC did say he wasn't going to be around. Since he is, and I believe he is somewhat scummy, it makes sense for him to claim before other players. However, if town wants to stick with the original plan, I have no problem with that.

@ Kairyuu, I'm not sure if that helps your towniness at all, as Emp said. You could very well be a double voter for the Puppeteers. I could also see you being the Joker or something. It will however prove that you have a powerrole, though I would have to say that I'm a more than a bit wary of taking a chance like that in lylo. Did you breadcrumb anywhere?

Before I claim I want to make sure that everyone wants me to go before WLC.

[VP Baltar]

oh, and are you saying that your power can be used multiple times?

[VP Baltar]

That isn't zero reasoning and I don't see how you could consider it so.

Well, I could say I'm going to vote you because you wear a purple hat. Doesn't make it a real reason.

You knew WLC was here before.

Weyouns was not around when we decided the order of the claims. It was the general concensus that if he wasn't going to be around then we would just go ahead and let him claim last. However, he came in after you had claimed, so maybe letting him claim now (or he could have before Kairyuu even) wouldn't be such a bad idea.

[VP Baltar]

lol, I have nothing to lose from the claim. Once some more people check in and say they want me to claim first, I will claim. I was simply saying that the original plan might need amending if the premise (ie WLC not being around) has been changed.

[VP Baltar]

Ok, I am the Waffle Vendor, a VT. The puppeteers are killing my business and I have to use my vote to get rid of them.

I breadcrumbed this role in post 93:

Well I guess we don't know how many scum are in the game, so the odds would go up appropriately.

Also, pies will be thrown.

Awww, I prefer over cooked waffles

or something a little more damaging.

This is also why I tend to believe Nocmen's claim. His role sounds similar to mine, though I'm not sure why he thought he had a power. When he said his thing about 'is anyone hungry' early in the game I thought he was breadcrumbing that he was a food vendor.

[VP Baltar]

I would say you're still pretty much town in my eyes, but not 100% confirmed. Unfortunately, I tend to be far more leary of adept players than bumbling ones. You made a good point about a scum double voter throwing the game out of balance though. I know the game is bastardish, but that just seems cruel. I still think WLC or Emp should be the lynch today.

[VP Baltar]

haha, it's pretty funny how Emp thinks everyone who questions him is scum.

[VP Baltar]

Wow I mixed up the mod saying "left" in the day post and in my PM. Wow.

The question really is why did you need to look at your role PM to report on who you investigated. Not to mention, remembering two investigations doesn't seem to be such a taxing thing that anyone should slip up in typing them.

Wow, Emp finds people who lie about the role Empking claimed scummy. How terrible.

You do realize that town people don't know what your role is right? Doubting and lying are two different things, and questioning you is hardly scummy. Fortunately, such passionate OMGUS is in fact scummy.

[VP Baltar]

Yep, confirmed. WLC and Shinnen claim now.

[VP Baltar]

Well, Weyouns I can't prove anything having no powers. A breadcrumb is really the best I can do. However, I would ask you if you don't think that was a strange thing to say at the time?

If I was scum I would have had to have the foresight to breadcrumb, be one of the first to question my partner Chief and bus her. Also, I was against Nocmen's lynch for most of the game.

Also, your claims sounds kind of sketchy. A grizzled war veteran in 1829 Germany? So you fought in the war of German Unification? Seems a bit farcical to me. That being said, it could seemingly balance having a Jester.

[VP Baltar]

Yeah I think this game is pretty much on idle until Shinnen and Grimmy claim.

Waffles are actually very popular in Europe as a snack food, Emp.

The reason I said your claim sounds sketchy Weyouns is that it's awfully elaborate. Especially now that you have named two specific wars you fought in. Granted, I don't have a power role, but that seems like quite a fleshed out back story considering that my role PM was pretty simple. You are alledging that your character fought in the United States in a war between the US and Britain, aaaand in the Napoleonic Wars (which are from like 1800-1815 I think). So, I take this to mean that your role is British, I suppose. Like I said, just seems a bit elaborate.

It's also pretty convenient in the sense that at this point in the game it seems unlikely the town is going to want you to prove yourself at night.

I keep going back and forth on you now, however. Like I said, I could see the one shot vig being a good balance to the jester. I also took a look at War in Heaven II and I can completely understand why you didn't have time for this game earlier (175 pages in like a month!). So, my point is that pending the remaining claims I think that Emp should still be today's lynch.

[VP Baltar]

Sorry for the double post. I was also thinking about Emp's claim. Being a news reporter is even less believable considering that I don't see what interest a news reporter would have in the Jester and Puppeteers fighting over the carnival. Frankly, that's a better story than the "fluff piece" Emp says he came to the carnival for!

[VP Baltar]

Does anyone think Emp's flavor not really having a vested interest in the success of the carnival is suspicious?

[VP Baltar]

Oh, must have missed it.

[VP Baltar]

Like working out Shin was a vanilla town where every role so far was power?

I claimed vanilla, as did Nocmen (except for his confusion, which I'm still not entirely clear on).

[VP Baltar]

No, Noc claimed essentially a vanilla with a chance for his role to change somehow over night, if I'm not mistaken. Is that correct, Noc?

[VP Baltar]

Well, based on that Grimmy, I would say we lynch Emp today and you roleblock WLC tonight. Simple.

Nocmen, can you explain your reasoning on Shin and also answer my question before I vote.

[VP Baltar]

Of course, the only problem is that if Grimmy is the scum he might just not submit a night kill and then claim he roleblocked WLC.

Nocmen, you want to put the vote on or should I?

[VP Baltar]

Weyouns, do you think Emp's claim is more or less suspicious than Kairyuu's? Shinnen's? Grimmy's? Mine?

[VP Baltar]

Haha, well I go to sleep and the game is over. Thanks SilverPhoenix for a great game. It was a lot of fun and the theme was pretty cool I thought. It's sort of unfortunate that Chief got a bad shake on D1 like that, but I think the town were pretty thorough thinkers as well. I was definitely glad not to be scum in this game.

@ Weyouns--I don't know really. I guess it was just your lack of participation early on and I didn't see a lot of active scumhunting from you. Like I said though, I can understand that with you being in that War in Heaven game. It could just be a playstyle thing. I tend to go after people if they play really conservatively because it always seems to me like they are trying to avoid a lynch.

Oh, and back me up next time you think there is a Jester!

I'm glad Kairyuu didn't talk the town out of mass claim, that would have jacked us up.

Emp, why did you claim reporter? Was it something you had considered before that time or just had to come up with quick when everyone was claiming?

[VP Baltar]

So, Emp when you replaced in and saw Chief was dead, what was really your strategy being in such a hole out of the gate?

[VP Baltar]

Haha, that modkill was epic Shinnen and really made me feel so much better about the Jester thing. You know DDD wanted to gloat about winning here. Karma prevails again.

[VP Baltar]

Well, the thing shaft.ed was that the claims fit with what people's role PMs said, so when people started saying things about needed to eliminate the puppeteers and other factions it became pretty obvious that they were taking info from the flavour text and not their role pms.

Thanks for reviewing the game too. It was still very fun even thought the scum basically lost on D1.