Mini 763 - Carnival Mafia - Game Over

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Vote: Kairyuu

For disliking a "long" RVS when this one hasn't even reached a page. Talk about impatient.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

@DDD:

For disliking a "long" RVS when this one hasn't even reached a page. Talk about impatient

Is that scummy though? If it is, why? If it's not, why are you voting me for it?

Could be, I can assign scum motive to trying to break off the RVS phase "early". If someone deems RVS to actually be effective (and most judge it as at least the most effective way to get a game going), then it would make sense to minimize that. Furthermore, if the person who cuts off RVS is likely to set the earliest questions and direction, not inherently scummy, but the better scum gambits I've seen have had scum assert themselves as the lead questioners in a game which often gives them cover as a very pro-town player.

Or it could've simply been me disregarding your attempt to end the RVS and voting randomly on whatever stupid reason came to mind.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Vote: Datadanne

I've decided that a policy lynch of Datadanne is the best way to approach day one. To try and answer any questions that will assuredly arise...

1) Why not use the information from day one to chose a lynch target? Isn't a slightly informed lynch superior to a completely uninformed one?
A) I don't believe so. Despite protestations from better players than I that they can beat the system and get a lynch record better than chance, I have seen no evidence of this in day one. In the six games I've played/am playing that are past day one and the nearly fifteen more that I've read for one reason or another, I have yet to see scum lynched on day one. Random chance should yield a correct lynch ratio of around 25%, vastly superior to the semi-informed ratio of 0% that I've found so far.

2) Why Datadanne?
A) Because I've read all three of his other games, in the two he's no longer active in he was lynched as doctor in both of them within the first two days. Do you see the posts he made in a row earlier? Those will likely be his best posts the entire game. So, besides the benefit of this lynch being "random" that is, not based on this game, and thus more likely to hit scum; if he is in fact a townie he won't actually help the town at all regarding analysis and thus there's no intellectual detriment to the town to lynching him.

3) So are you going to do if you've already decided you're not moving your vote?
A) I propose that we all begin poking and prodding and interrogating each other as we'd usually do. The point of this isn't to deprive the town of information, but to give that information the needed context it usually lacks on day one. We continue interrogating and poking and prodding until the game slows down or until a majority feels that we've squeezed all the useful information from the day. At which point an individual will cast a vote on Datadanne instead of whoever they would've likely voted instead.

4) You mentioned context in your third answer, what context will be provided?
A) Well, we'll have more information about the setup based off the reveal of Datadanne's death and any night kills that happen. Furthermore, since this is a theme game there likely will be a variety of roles with night actions that will resolve and that information should help corroborate or counter the information gleaned from day one.

I expect many questions, probably some flak, and an OMGUS from datadanne. But I'll try and explain anything else anyone sees fit to question.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

OK. DDD, I don't like it. At all. However, I don't have the time to comment properly right now, so I'll just link you a couple of games (some are ongoing, but D1 is over and that's all this sample set requires) that I can think of just off the top of my head.

So yeah. Those are just games I've played in/been following. Get a better sample set before you make such foolish generalizations.

You've proven nothing because you fail to show how many games that's pulled from. A list of links looks dramatic, but frankly it fails the smell test. Because, I didn't say it never happens, I simply said it fails more often then random chance would.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

My first game (out of three) on the site had scum (my partner) lynched on Day 1 due to logic. Ergo, it is plausible and calling for a policy lynch on page 3 seems like you are needlessly trying to end discussion. Datadanne being pointlessly lynched as a powerrole in other games further supports why we should not policy lynch him for no real reason at this point. Doing so could seriously derail town's chances of winning if he is some sort of PR (no need to discuss this further btw) or even VT.

And again a sample size of three doesn't get close to proving anything. I never said it was impossible to find scum on day one, but that statistically doing so is no better and quite possibly worse than random chance.

Furthermore, I am not trying to end discussion as I noted in point four, don't misrepresent what I'm trying to do. We should try to squeeze as much information out of the day as possible, but wait for appropriate context for that information.

And Datadanne wasn't pointlessly lynched in the other games, he was lynched in them because his play is virulently anti-town period (see the game (N725) where he claimed doc, then proceeded to claim vanilla, hammered another townie, claimed cop, and then claimed either vanilla or doc again, I forget, before being lynched). Since he's going to provide us no useful information and his play seems to be anti-town regardless of whether he's scum or not it's easier to cut that line of discussion off at the legs.

I move that we focus on finding

other

scum and leave the data situation until we have more substantial evidence.

Slip of the toungue? Perhaps. But seems to indicate that datadanne is in fact scum if we're hunting for other scum and the only way that Baltar would know that is if he is scum as well.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I don't like DDD's attitude at all. He's like "I'm the most experienced player here thus my references are valid and the others are not".

I have not said this, I believe Kairyuu and nocmen to have more experience than me. However, there has not been evidence presented to prove my hypothesis wrong. Baltar only has three games to draw from and Kairyuu did not provide a sample size rendering his list of games currently meaningless. It's not arrogance, it's good science.

If there's been a more objective study of this topic (possibly something from MD) and it runs counter to what I've said I'll gladly back off having been proven wrong.

Arogant and with a policy lynch, another two things I don't like. Just because Datadanne has been a bad player in other games doesn't mean he will be in this one.

I see nothing to suggest that datadanne's play will be any better than it was previously (see post 54).

Get reasons in this game to vote for him.

No, because then it wouldn't be a "random" lynch, it would be the same semi-informed decision that's not advantageous in finding scum.

DDD's reasons to vote for him (which are based in pure meta) just don't convince me.

That's unfortunate, but you never really touch on the lynchpin of my meta argument, that day one lynches are no better and possibly worse than random chance. Why are you unconvinced by my argument, other than the fact that it is an atypical argument and other people seem to object?

Sorry, but I really don't like the way your approaching to this game. You are just supporting a lynch on Dd for the sake of a random lynch, just because of the meta. That is a really scum thing to do, you know?

No it's not. In fact if the meta is correct then I'm doing the town thing to do and everyone who insists on stumbling blindly into a lynch is inadvertently helping scum. Hence to label me scum you need to prove that the meta is incorrect and that it makes sense that I would actually post and support the false meta as scum.

You are just encoring a bandwagon on a random player, and last time I checked, that was scum.

I'm not encouraging a bandwagon on datadanne, I'm encouraging he be lynched without a bandwagon because a datadanne bandwagon will provide no information and that we spend the rest of the day on more productive topics of discussion.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I'm against a policy lynch of Datadanne. The dynamics in voting without restricting to just 1 person will give us much more information later on.

Alright, then how about adding on to my proposal in point four (which it seems like no one has actually bothered to read). At the point that any individual decides the day has run long enough and that we've collected enough useful information that in addition to voting Datadanne they

Pseudo-Vote:

whoever they would've anyways. People would use this throughout D1 as they would a normal vote while still granting the advantages of my proposal without losing any information.

DDD, you somehow argue that lynching Datadanne would give us about 25% chance to lynch scum, but that's just flawed logic. There are the same possibilities here as in other games, the mafia undeniably has a hand in who gets lynched day 1 (for example say you were mafia and this is a set up), so the chances here, as in any other games, is not 0%, but also not equal to the '# scum'/ 'total # players'.

Since my lynch target is "random" the probability of it hitting scum is '# scum'/ 'total # players' %. My experience and theory suggests that the usual methods of scumhunting on day one will yield a correct lynch <= '# scum'/ 'total # players' %.

This is because the informed minority clearly has an advantage over the uninformed majority on day one because they posses vastly more information; as the days pass the uninformed majority gains information and the knowledge gap shrinks increasing the ability and tendency for the town to correctly lynch scum.

My proposal increases the odds of getting a correct lynch on day one while not comprimising the knowledge gathering that's essential to making the correct lynches in later days.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I feel like this whole argument on a mathmatical level, makes sense. But when it comes to good sense, it's ridiculous. It's like saying "Ok, I'm gonna shoot this gun blindly into pure darkness, rather than to have any level of light at all." This is a Mafia game. The whole point is to be investigative. The point would be moot if we made blind shots for every lynch.

That's because it does make sense and the reason you're uncomfortable isn't because it's a bad strategy, but because it's different. Don't overthink this and start wondering what you should do or what's conventional, we should do whatever is best for the town and if this makes the most mathematical sense it would be foolish of us not to pursue it.

You don't think random voting is stumbling blindly? I've heard your math, but common sense?

Really

?

Not in the form I've proposed, because I've set it up to allow for us to still collect information that we'll need on the later days. We increase the odds of making a correct lynch without suffering the disadvantage of lost information.

Well, in my opinion, this sounds like scum distracting us from his scumbuddy. I do agree that we need to give a bit of a rest on Datadanne, yeah, but not to totally let him off the hook, and write off that any further prodding/investigation would "provide no more information."

You know how silly this sounds? I've spent the last five posts or so advocating a datadanne lynch, I still advocate lynching datadanne. To suggest that I'm distancing from the guy I've constructed my entire argument around lynching is borderline hysterical.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

That theory is mighty fine, if not for the possibility that you were scum.

The theory is fine, unless I'm scum and if I'm scum I'm either handing over a scum buddy for a lynch (in which case you'd be a fool not to enjoy the advantage I've handed over) or I've come up with elaborate meta argument that sounds convincing and I'm using it to lynch the worst player in the town which will put all the suspicion on me the next day (which sounds ridiculously convoluted and not like a very good strategy).

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

This makes little sense to me. You mention past examples from his other games, and yet you seem to ignore all other past game references that are made by other players.

Well, as I mentioned I can't use Kaiyuu's data since there's no sample size those are pulled from and what's relevant here is percentages. I can add Baltar's experience to mine, but that still only gives a ratio of 1/24 or about 4% which is still significantly less than random chance. It's not that I'm ignoring their experiences, it's that they either can't be used currently or they don't change the conclusion.

So because of that, I'm going to go the same way and ignore your use of past games as a reason to vote for Datadanne.

This is a terrible point, if I had committed a fallacy that doesn't make it open season for you to do the same.

So basically, using the same logic you are, you're going and pushing a policy lynch on Datadanne for reasons which could be applied to any other players. So why not go and "policy lynch" you? What about Chief? Myself? The others?

On the most basic level if the lynch is truly random (irrelevant of postings in this particular game) then the odds of hitting scum are the same and so anyone could be substituted in. However, despite raising the percentage of hitting scum there remains a significant chance of hitting a townie. Hence why Datadanne was chosen, in the case that the random lynch does fail the town has lost it's least useful asset.

You say that Datadanne's actions may be the same as they were before. So can I use the same logic for saying that they may be different? That playstyles may be different depending on faction?

The point wasn't to speculate on his role alignment. If I let that influence my vote then it isn't random and that ruins the theory. The point was to note that datadanne is the least useful asset the town has, he has demonstrated no capacity to hunt scum (at all, let alone) succesfully and has a tendency to get himself lynched for his anti-town behavior. Losing datadanne will not hurt the town in ways that losing a more competent player would.

That this is a theme game, closed, so we don't know what tricks are in the roles?

Correct, hence why I feel speculating about Datadanne's role in pointless, he may hold a useful role or he may hold a role that will actually hurt the town. I'm not going to try and outguess the mod in a game the mod admits has bastard roles in it.

You do realize that bandwagons can be very valuable sources of information? Right now you're acting as if you are ready to shut down all uses of a possible bandwagon in the future, saying it will have no information.

Yes, in general they can be quite useful. A Datadanne bandagon on the other hand will contain basically no useful information because his play is so poor that everyone has easy cover on the bandwagon because of that.

I'm under the assumption that in Mafia heaps of information can be gained from who votes who, why, when, etc. Mostly stuff you get from investigating bandwagons. To me, this is more important source of information than any policy lynch.

AND I'M NOT TRYING TO PREVENT THAT, I have stated time and time again that even if we accept my idea that we should continue day one in as normal a fashion as possible, that we should set-up a fake voting system so that we can study vote movement and potential bandwagons, so that we get the benefits of the random lynch theory while not losing the benefits of the investigations day one would yield.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Admittedly, the choice of the word "distracting" was incorrect of me. I meant to insinuate something to the effect of what WLC did in post 65:

possibly DD and DDD are both scum and with DDD running DD's lynch might clear DDD in the long run. But that second theory is a bit farfetched for now.

I apologize for my mistake in word choice. Anyway...

It happens, in fact it happens here later. Anyways, I wouldn't complain if we're both scum as I'd basically be handing you a free lynch.

Out of curiosity, doesn't this sort of take the "random" out of the situation? In other words, "it's random on the basis of his bad playing"?

Perhaps random isn't the word I wanted, but instead pre-determined. It could be random, but as long as the lynch is pre-determined and not swayed by the contents of the game then the random assignment of roles is enough to make the math work.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

SO DDD, essentially you are saying "Let's not play mafia. Instead, let's turn the game into the random bullshit that many critics call the game, because that way we don't have to worry about competing with the scum, only the odds." Sorry, but that is just stupid, and there is no way I will ever go along with that.

This is hilarious, you're so protective of the sanctity of the game that you'll chose sub-optimum strategy just to spite change. And I never claimed this was optimum strategy for anything besides day one where the town has limited information to go off of.

Point 1:

No lynch is truly random. You decided, based on your own subjective reasoning, that Datadanne is the best D1 lynch. That

automatically

moves us straight to the semi-informed lynching that you are trying to avoid (note: keeping the town from getting information by playing the odds instead of the game is anti-town).

You're partially correct, but the lynch doesn't have to be random, just pre-determined and not influenced by the current game itself. Since nothing datadanne does will move my vote (if I can convince people to adopt this plan) then it meets the criteria of pre-determined.

Point 2:

We do not know your motives, and therefore do not know if we can trust you or not. That right there will also push us away from the randomness you want to use. The only real way to get something random is if the mod or some unbiased observer rolls a die and we lynch the player whose number comes up. Besides the fact that that is foolish to the extreme and goes against the point of the game, SP wouldn't allow something like that methinks.

You shouldn't trust me; however as I mentioned true randomness is not necessary for the theory to hold, only that the subject be chosen and that selection unaffected by present game behavior. As for sussing out my motives, well I guess you'll have to do this thing called "play mafia" which you seemed real gung-ho on before to try and figure out what my possible motives could be, it appears WLC and CS4 have already started this fun endeavor.

Point 3:

You are willing to push for a lynch that you claim yourself has only a 25% chance of hitting scum, and which will leave us just as much in the dark as we are now based on wagons, debate, and reactions/voting patterns. This essentially puts us into D2 with one or more people dead, but no new information to help power roles make choices N1 or for us to work with D2 without said power roles claiming with results, which would be stupid.

NO IT WON'T, read my fucking posts instead of parroting the same tired lines. The proposal to lynch Datadanne is contingent upon the day continuing as much as normal so that we do have all that same information, but in the end declaring where your vote would've gone and voting for datadanne anyways. I agree, if we all just voted for datadanne right now that would be a terrible idea, but that's not what I'm suggesting.

Please explain to me exactly how this lynch you are proposing will benefit the town more than it will the scum. If you can convince me, I'll move my vote off of you.

unvote

and

vote:DDD

Please explain to me how my behavior is that of scum and you're not simply moving your vote on to an easy town target. But the gist of my arguments are included at the bottom of this post.

In regards to my sample set, I could go through all of the games I have ever played in and/or read and/or been told about and give you exact numbers, but I won't, because that would take me several hours and would clutter the thread with 100+ games, including quite a few that don't even apply (really old games where the meta was totally different or games like Bad Idea Mafia that have totally different play mechanics). As I said before, those are just some of the more recent games and those that popped into my head specifically.

I understand, but it's only by doing that or a random sample will your data be useful in statistical analysis.

I can say similar things about your sample set as well though. You have given an unsupported number and expected us to believe that, not only are you telling the truth, that those are all of the games you have read and you are not skewing your own sample to suit your desired result.

Correct, I don't have hard verification of this, I wish I did. I only can assume that the experience of others has been somewhat similar.

How about this, do what you did with VP. Add my sample to yours and his. That brings you up to 11/34, which is 32.35%, and invalidates your own argument. I doubt you will do that though, since VP's sample was so small that it would have no real effect on your numbers, and mine is large enough to make a difference.

I didn't include your numbers because you admit that you cherry picked your data to support your opinion. Now I get that you're suggesting the same of me (not true, but maybe this will assuage your fears), but if we look at the games I've played only which is verifiable if you like the number is 0/6, add on VP's verifiable 1/3 and we're at 1/9 or 11%, still not even half as good as a random lynch.

*****IF YOU READ ANYTHING READ THE BELOW*****

The Lynch: By lynching a random or pre-determined target on day one the projected success rate is better than the rate from the semi-informed guesswork that usually constitutes day one.

Loss of Information: But how do we prevent the loss of information that pushing a pre-determined lynch would invariably create? We do as I proposed, continue the day relatively normally investigating and poking and prodding. We use a device such as

Pseudo-Vote: XYZ

to indicate voting intent so that voting trends can be monitored as before. Only when a majority of people feel that enough information has been collected that they cast a final pseudo-vote and really vote for the target.

Failsafe: Even though we've improved the lynch success rate there's still a strong likelihood of lynching a townie of some stripe. Hence, this is where a selection of target occurs, choosing the player least likely to damage the town's chances of winning. Since this is a theme game with bastard roles it's foolish to attempt to outguess the mod on roles, so the criteria should be scumhunting ability and ability to withstand scrutiny so as not to be run down by scum as an easy target.

The first two pieces are true regardless of who the selected target is, it’s only the fact that I’ve built a relative safeguard into the process to prevent the town from losing it’s more valuable pieces that datadanne is selected.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Sorry for the cutdown, but I can't respond to everything, especially when I'm making the same points again and again.

The game you describe with him as doc does sound awful, but who's to say he didn't learn from that. If he does play that awful then his lynch is inevitable.

Because while he didn't pull the same exact stunt in his second game (he wasn't afforded the opportunity) he was again lynched as doctor in his second newbie game, and his behavior though role unconfirmed as the game is ongoing is fundamentally the same in the third of his newbie games. I'm loath to use this game, but I clearly predicted he would OMGUS me and his behavior in that post is typical of what been seen in the past.

You're trying to proffer this data lynch as truly random, and that is utterly false. You are basing it off of his meta and the limited posts he made in this game (he was gone on LA this weekend remember?)

False, the lynch is random in that it is not affected by the contents of this game; datadanne's selection as the fail safe was based on my previous experiences with him (not this game).

Furthermore, you somehow feel that your experience of six games on MS is somehow representative of the site in general. This is highly doubtful and noone has any reason to believe it is. While I appreciate you have a unique theory and are trying a different approach, without a substansive bit of research (ie cross-section of hundreds of different games) there is no way to tell if your hypothesis is statistically accurate.

This is a decent argument and I understand your willingness to consider only the six games I've been involved in, but my reading experiences as well do run up to an 0/21 record which is statistically significant compared to the expected return of 5/21. As it stands it's not as if there's been evidence presented that refutes my claim with research of the caliber that's being expected of me. I can only play off my experiences and they suggest that this is optimum strategy. The ironic thing is that my lynch would only corroborate my theory.

The plan you are presenting about us lynching data while still having some sort of side discussion, again, does not make much sense to me. So, you are saying that we continue to look for someone scummy, narrow it down...and then let them live? How does this make sense? If someone acts scummy, you lynch them. If data ends up being the scummiest player at the end of Day 1, then by all means lets get out the rope, but we can't possibly know that until we get to that point. Plus, I think the scum would be much less likely to make errors if they knew 100% for sure that they weren't going to be killed today.

How sure are you ever that you have the correct lynch, especially on day one? I've never terribly certain, usually it's a matter of finding the best choice which is far from a good one and miles away from the best one. Furthermore, I suggest that in the hindsight of night actions and early day two interactions the information on the first day will have context so that pieces start to fit together better. And I disagree with the last point, if scum know they won't be lynched they're more likely to be lax and make some sort of mistake.

Well that is..just...wrong. Info can be garnered from who is on the wagon, how passionately they push it, when they vote, and for what reasons. Are you not providing an even easier cover than might normally happen by pushing a policy lynch ?

Surely you've seen players like Datadanne before... empking, zwet, millar? People easily hop on their wagon because their play is consistently anti-town and annoying and no one objects since they are the most anti-town player in the game and afterwards there's nothing for anyone to say because everyone agreed the play was terrible.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

DDD, how if we follow your advice, but instead of a "predetermined" DD lynch, we lynch you instead? You wouldn't like it, isn't it?

You are just pushing a lynching just for the sake of lynching someone, without arguments (other than meta) of any sort. That, my friend, is clearly scum. DD may not be helping the town, but at least he's not screaming "I'm mafia" like you are.

I wouldn't like it, of course not. But if the decision was made and it truly was random/uninfluenced by this game, I would understand it as near optimum play for the town.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Alright, alright, I get it. No one wants to push the boundaries of strategy, as a sign that I'm done with pushing the idea

Unvote

.

I feel rather uncomfortable at L-1 (if that is indeed where I am) and promise to put together a cognizant defense of myself over the next few hours and to place questions to other people, but I'd appreciate a single unvote so that a drive-by lynching can't happen and hurt the town, especially so early. Someone who made a point of needing information from day one and my plan hurting that should unvote, because a quick lynch on page four would be the epitome of that problem and you'd be a hypocrite to allow me to be quick lynched while talking down my previous plan.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Anyways, it’s a touch sad that Kairyuu spent presumably all that time putting together than massive all of text after I already conceded the argument. But considering all the grief he’s given me it’s not all that sad. Furthermore, I dislike the whole arguments about mafia not being a game of numbers when it clearly can be. Just because you prefer the psychological bent of the game, doesn’t invalidate the numerical/logical style, but all of that is neither here nor there.

Anyways, I’m more than a bit disappointed that it appears only one person (WLC) went back and looked and explored my possible motives which I think clear things up to a large degree.

If I was scum I see two basic explanations for my actions: one, there are multiple scum and I was bussing a partner in crime. This of course means that I was basically trying to hand over a massive advantage on day one when it simply wouldn’t have been necessary. Considering my ill-fated argument revolved around increasing a first day lynch percentage, it doesn’t quite fit that I’d simply hand away a ~15% advantage for no reason. Second, if I was scum I’d be trying to lynch a townie, but as everyone noted if the plan had occurred and datadanne had flipped town then my ass would’ve been in the fire even more than it was. Neither course of action makes real great sense as scum.

Even disregarding the motives, simply posting such an argument runs contrary to how I understand to and attempt to best play scum, I even acknowledged in post 50 that I was expecting to draw questions and flak. There’s no reason for scum to do something as blatant as that when I could’ve sat back and picked an easy target for easy reasons instead of making life that hard on myself. All in all, the post doesn’t make sense from the perspective of scum.

Jumpy scum is jumpy now that he realized how close he is to being lynched. That attitude makes me more convinced that you are the best place for my vote. I will not be unvoting.

Null-tell, everyone should be jumpy at L-1 to a certain extent and both pro-town players and scum players should generally try to avoid being lynched. It’s also foolish and more than a little anti-town to say definitively that you won’t be unvoting. First off, it makes it seem as if you’re unwilling to hear any further discussion on the matter, which runs contrary to your information valuing meta. Furthermore, if a better target comes along are you stuck still voting me because you don’t want to seem a hypocrite or does your vote actually move then and makes you a liar?

I don't like you backing out of saying it's random because that seemed to be an important part of your argument, and random in this particular game would yield an 8.33% chance of lynching scum--not 25%. I'm curious where you even got that number from.

See, my 25% was based off an expectation of 3/12 = 25% and 2/9 = 22% setups as fairly typical, the same math as Kairyuu basically. However, here you definitively state that we’re in a scenario with only one scum. And the only one with that information would be the scum themselves. I hate to do it since you were kind enough to give me some breathing room, but you’ve got some serious explaining to do as how you posses this knowledge that the rest of us seemingly don’t.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

@ Kairyuu and DDD

Please see post 93 which immediately followed my blunder of saying it was an 8.33% chance. Well I will just repost the important part for your ease:

Well I guess we don't know how many scum are in the game, so the odds would go up appropriately.

After making my original post I quickly realized that my math was wrong because it only factored in there being one scum. I have no idea how many there are, but you guys are most likely closer to being correct at 25% than I am. Guess it is best to think things through before posting.

Not quite, your first post touting a percentage of 8.33% occurs in post 82 @ 7:33; you don't realize your mistake until over ten posts later and after it was questioned at about an hour later when you correct in post 93 @ 8:49.

Why would you assume there was only one scum though without knowledge of the setup? The conventional setup for a mini is 3/12 with some slight variance, but a single scum is out of the ordinary and thus there's little reason why it should be your default assumption.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Furthermore, I dislike the whole arguments about mafia not being a game of numbers when it clearly can be. Just because you prefer the psychological bent of the game, doesn’t invalidate the numerical/logical style, but all of that is neither here nor there.

I propose we move this to MD after the game is over. Agreed?

There's an older thread entitled "Mafia is primarily a game of..." which covers much of this ground, though my viewpoint is a minority one in the poll. If you still want to run an actual experiment, I'd be willing to run the statistics if we designed it properly.

If you are town you should make your argument in your defense and then allow people to decide if they believe you or not. Calling for an unvote before your explanation implies that you are afraid of the position you are/were in. If you are town then I don't see why you shouldn't be confident that you can prove your towniness and avert your lynch. After all, there should be nothing you've done that you can't explain.

And I didn't call for everyone to unvote, just a single unvote so that if someone like lixyl did exactly what they did that I wouldn't be quick-lynched which would hurt the town. My jumpiness wasn't due to weakness of my arguments, but because of my general distrust of everyone else.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

My take on VP's possible slip is this- It's suspicious to a degree, but nothing that's getting my alarm bells going. I wouldn't have even noticed it if it hadn't been pointed out. But maybe that's just me being unobservant.

What slip?

VP calculated the odds of lynching scum at 8.33% when usually scum represent around 25% of players in a standard mini game. It makes it appear that he has information that there's only one scum in the game instead of multiple scum, as is common.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

So you utterly reject a math error in calculating your "random" theory as a possibility?

I used the expression "It makes it appear" which doesn't definitively state anything and allows for the possibility that it is in fact a simple mistake. I think you're suspicious because of it; but I am not sure whether it's a mistake of the damning or mathematical variety.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

DDD, do you think if there would be only one scum he/she would slip up with posting the actual number of scum (in this case a percentage)? Could be but I highly doubt it, as well as I doubt there'd be only one scum. Sure there people on their own against town, but there'd definately be multiples of them then.

I think anything is possible, why would we play this game if we didn't think scum was going to make some sort of mistake we could pick up on.

Furthermore, even if there are multiple individual anti-town elements it's unlikely that they'd be informed of each others existence and thus one of those individuals would probably project themselves as the only scum.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Also, DDD where are you? You were quite vocal earlier and we haven't heard from you in nearly two days now.

Has it been two days? Yeesh. Anyways, I'm unimpressed by lixyl/Grimmy, lixyl for the hit and run vote which just reeked of convenient opportunism and then Grimmy's current main argument is based around datadanne's behavior which as I made patently clear earlier is basically a null-tell.

At the mod's insistence I won't further any arguments based around role PMs, but what's been said clearly seems to indicate that nocmen is not a simple townie. On the other hand that doesn't mean he's scum either and nothing from his behavior has really suggested that to me.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Vote: ChiefSkye4

Lynching scum is a good idea or so I'm told.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

haha, you still going to push your theory DDD when Chief flips scum?

Which theory?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Right, sorry, just woke up. Well it'll certainly help get rid of that theory, won't completely disprove it, but it'll put me on the path.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I still want to do a full-scale statistical analysis of this phenomena.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Wait. No. I'm wrong. L-1.

Wyzat? Four votes on CS4 in the last count and since then has picked up votes by Shanaba and myself which would make six, which is lynch.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

First things first, let's talk about how awesome I am that I got you people to put me at L-1 in two pages and then got all those votes off me in the same time span. Simply put, I rule.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

First things first, let's talk about how awesome I am that I got you people to put me at L-1 in two pages and then got all those votes off me in the same time span. Simply put, I rule.

Simply put that wasn't useful.

Sure was fun though.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Shanba replaced Datadanne, right?

Vote: Shanba

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I'm lost for words.

I have some words you could borrow...

Unvote

Vote: WLC

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Not picking up on sarcasm is the clearest scumtell in the book, empking. Surely you know that.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Convenient, VPB, that you don't mention that Nocmen was posting about your slip-up in estimating the number of scum.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Anyways, it appears that Empking has some sort of investigative role and from his reaction to Nocmen I'd suggest that Noc's role isn't overtly scummy. So, I'm personally crossing those two off my possible scum list for the rest of the day.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Dear scum, please kill the following two persons....

*fixed*
Why the hell would you say that even if you believe it? I would policy lynch you if WLC wasn't obvscum.

Just trying to help the town out, removing two people from consideration. Though Empking's last post really blows that idea to hell, I'd like to know what seemingly inside information he has that the rest of us don't.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Wait, WLC has a double vote?!?!?!?

Either a mod error or an ability gained overnight, since all vote counts yesterday reflect WLC only having a single vote.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

@DDD: First off, what possessed you to reveal that you thought Emp was an investigative role? How on earth does that even come

close

to helping the town? If Nocmen can prove himself not a threat, then you're getting my vote. It's like you're going out of your way to give the scum as much of an advantage as you can.

Did no one else read post 223?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

@DDD: Why do you consistently only mention certain things going on in the game? Your last few posts have been short, ask one question, and ignore everything else going on in the game.

@DDD and VP: I asked this before, I want to see all of your reasons for voting WLC.

1) Because it's impossible to post comments about everything and it's often better to watch how other people argue things then get involved with every single argument. Thanks for the easy question.

2) I voted him for his sheer obliviousness, clearly he's not an asset to the town.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

@DDD: Did you read post 175?

At one point, probably.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

2) I voted him for his sheer obliviousness, clearly he's not an asset to the town.

Not an asset to the town as in you know that I'm a townie but you don't think I say something useful, or as in you actually think my behavior is scummy?

Why not both, let's go with both.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Unvote

Vote: Nocmen

L-2, let's get rid of this scum.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

No, I'm trying to get Nocmen lynched currently, that's why I'm voting for him.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

@DDD: To start, you are acting even more irrationally than D1. Why? Is there a method to your madness, or are you just flailing wildly because you feel like it? It's starting to annoy me.

If it's the first, spelling it out would ruin the effect of it, now wouldn't it? And if it was the second do you think I'd simply admit to it?

And in regards to your 265, go read 175. Now. It's Noc's claim to receive money based on how well the carnival is doing. Try getting your facts straight before speculating about power roles. Actually, how about this. Don't speculate about power roles

at all

!

Yeah, I forgot about that (175) when I made my post; started trying to figure out where Empking would get that knowledge from. Assumed a power role and off that assumption assumed that he didn't immediately vote for Nocmen that Nocmen was clear. Removing them from the lynch pool obviously would help the town's odds to lynch correctly today and win.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Unvote

Vote: Nocmen

L-2, let's get rid of this scum.

Reasons? Besides the fact I'm voting you?

Still asking for a response to this.

Your claim was false.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

@all:I have a few theories about DDD right now. One of them could be very good for us, and the other could be very bad.

Real astute analysis there Kairyuu. This could be good or it could be bad.

But it's all irrelevant because we should listen to the rest of his advice and lynch Nocmen as fast as possible.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

DDD, why did you switch your vote to Nocmen from WLC?

Because I was voting WLC for basically similar behavior as I had exhibited and that would've been hypocritical. Granted he was a little more dense about it considering he kept his vote on the person after he realized his mistake, but hardly a lynchable offense. Plus you've been wavering all over the place and Empking and Kairyuu seem so insistent and persuasive in their desire to lynch Nocmen which makes that lynch that much more likely to actually happen. All else being equal, I favor being lazy.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

DDD, why did you switch your vote to Nocmen from WLC?

Because I was voting WLC for basically similar behavior as I had exhibited and that would've been hypocritical. Granted he was a little more dense about it considering he kept his vote on the person after he realized his mistake, but hardly a lynchable offense. Plus you've been wavering all over the place and Empking and Kairyuu seem so insistent and persuasive in their desire to lynch Nocmen which makes that lynch that much more likely to actually happen. All else being equal, I favor being lazy.

So wait, you voted because other people voted me, and you want to go with a lynch that will likely happen quicker?

They were very persuasive.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Everyone should ignore DDD right now, imo.

So are you claiming cop, vig, or scum with this one?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

So are you claiming cop, vig, or scum with this one?

I'm not claiming anything, and you shouldn't be rolefishing.

I'm just trying to understand, no normal townie should ever flat out tell the town to ignore someone, bad idea. However, for various reasons all of the three roles listed would/could have reason for saying that and if my rolefishing can get you to admit to being scum, all the better for the town.

I have an idea of what you are in this game,

I don't think you do, I think that you think that you know, when in reality, you really don't.

and everyone should ignore your really bad play. You don't come off to me as a dullard, so I think it's intentional bad play on your part

Why thank you, "You don't come off to me as a dullard" is the nicest thing anyone has said to me all day. Then again, I have yet to talk to anyone so far today.

and that is everyone should be ignoring you right now and focusing on finding scum.

I agree with part of this. We should be focused on finding scum (Lynch Nocmen!), but ignoring anyone is a poor idea.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

The reason I think people should be ignoring you right now DDD is that your play is atrocious. I also think your play has shifted quite drastically from day 1 to a much more anti-town position.

If you're telling me that you've already got the perfect read on me that's well and good (I don't believe it, but I'll allow you to harbor such delusions). However, it's a touch baffling that you claim to speak for the rest of this town on the matter, when it in fact appears that others are quite confused or have multiple possible reads. Why are you proposing that these other players stop seeking the truth and simply adopt your own version of it? If you don't have inside information then such behavior is quite anti-town as no topic of discussion or inquisition should be ruled out of bounds by a single individual.

Additionally, you've yet to specifically state why you think Nocmen should be the lynch today. This is another reason for people to disregard your positions at this time. If you want him lynched, then please specifically outline what about his role claim you think is lynch worthy.

Because Nocmen claimed a mechanic to his role that he has no idea how it works and so far doesn't appear to work at all. Either he's intentionally withholding information or lying about his role, both actions are highly anti-town.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Also, why are you arguing so adamantly for your own lynch?

And now you're putting words in my mouth, I never said I should be lynched. I'll say it right now in plain English, I should not be lynched. I have said and will continue to say that anyone trying to unilaterally trying to cut off a topic of discussion (even if that discussion doesn't benefit me personally) is not helping the town.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

@DDD: You are really pissing me off right now. I am sick of this crap, and I'm just going to lay out all of the possibilities I see, regardless of whether you are going to get NKed or not. You are detrimental to the town.

At very least I'm fulfilling my personal win con. Enjoy the game and I'm enjoying this one very much.

List

This list is, of course, assuming you are not a) stupid, because you have proven yourself to be intelligent, and b) merely suicidal, because that would be bad form on so many levels.

First off, A is a correct assumption, however, I wouldn't rule B out. I'm a touch disapointed that's all the scenarios you came up with Kairyuu, here's how I see it...

Any alignment and I've decided to simply be a prick for the game, possibly a prick with a death wish. Doesn't make much sense as a townie since we lynched scum on D1; could be disgruntled scum protesting against a broken setup. Doesn't make any sense as a survivor, does make sense as a jester except...

Jester doesn't make much sense, since I was at L-1 on D1 and immediately pled my way off it when I could easily self-hammered or waited for lixyl to do the deed for me.

I could be a townie with a power role, by behaving like this I've basically assured that scum won't kill me and I can use my role to help win the town the game.

I could be a survivor, or scum who after D1 got a great read on you guys especially Kairyuu and realized as long as I was completely and blatantly anti-town that you'd actually not lynch me because why would scum behave in such a stupid fashion as you were pushing earlier.

Or put your imagination to the test and see what wonderful other (mostly third-party) roles you can come up with for me. My current favorite is The Human Daredevil, someone who has to get to L-1 X times during the game to win. Free your mind from the shackles of conventional thought and you too might dream up a role that would fit.

So give it a rest that you've got a read on me, you have absolutely no idea what I am or who I'm aligned with.

I want a claim. Immediately. I don't care that you aren't close to a lynch. You need to explain your behavior

now

.

Well if you want to claim go right ahead, I won't stop you. And isn't that ironic, you're scared to put me closer to getting lynched, and you can't threaten me into "behaving" by not voting for me, what a conundrum. For you. I'm quite enjoying it.

Also, lynch Nocmen! I actually agree with Empking on something for once.

Lynch Nocmen!

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

But that wouldn't make any sense either, as a town power role acting like you are could very easily be brought to claiming position or even lynched for the behavior. Plus, if we have a vig you could draw that kill instead of the scumkill. 1 point for and 3 against. You are almost assured to be not pro-town aligned.

You're not factoring my arrogance into this equation, that's a mistake.

Funny, but you seem to have missed my politician idea (must get the most votes out of any other player but not be lynched). I'd say that is a decent assumption.

Didn't miss it, just didn't know what it did. Learn something everyday.

Lynch Nocmen!

You first. Then him.

[/quote]

No thx. Lynch Nocmen!

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

However, I still believe you are a jester(Joker) whose role changed over night.

Are you claiming a power role with the ability to change other people's roles and are you claiming to have targeted me last night?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I'm asking for a claim from you, DDD.

Alright, I claim Shanba is the Ringmaster. I'm not sure what that does, but there's my claim.

I also want to know, did you get any PM from the mod last night?/quote]

I got a reminder from the mod to send in any night actions I might have had, but I assume everyone got that one and that's it.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

DDD, if you have any sort of win con that is pro-town, you need to claim now or we should just assume you are a jester trying to get yourself killed.

No, you have absolutely no leverage here and I will not be bullied into any course of actions by mere words. I am considering my options in regards to claiming and am trying to figure out the best course of action for myself and the town, but I will make that decision as it suits me and not to meet your requests and desires.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I'm...

not the ringmaster.

Explain yourself.

Nocmen wanted a claim from me, he did not say who the claim should be about nor did he note that the claim had to be truthful. Hence I was complying with his wishes in their most literal meaning.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Vote: DDD

Yes I do.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Unvote

Vote: DDD

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Unvote

Vote: DDD

Are you a sole winner?

We'll find out won't we or maybe not.