Mini 763 - Carnival Mafia - Game Over

[WeyounsLastClone]

Well, I guess Datadanne made the choice for me while I was typing up my own post. I'll wait and see if he's really out though, you never know.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

So you utterly reject a math error in calculating your "random" theory as a possibility?

I used the expression "It makes it appear" which doesn't definitively state anything and allows for the possibility that it is in fact a simple mistake. I think you're suspicious because of it; but I am not sure whether it's a mistake of the damning or mathematical variety.

[SilverPhoenix]

Shanba

replaces Datadanne. The vote count has changed to reflect this. I'm giving TCold one more day to pick up his prod, and then I will replace him.

Thanks for the quick replace!

[VP Baltar]

@data praise the gods. Thanks Shanba, and welcome!

[Shanba]

Oh dear. It would appear I've rather picked up a hot potato.

Vote: Chiefskye

who happens to be scum. It's such a shame when stuff like that happens, I'm sure he'll get over it soon.

I'm sure you're all dying to hear why, but I feel the need to address DDD first. DDD may or may not be scum. If he's scum, he's ballsy, but that doesn't mean anything. However, I want to touch on his plan as I never can ignore a good theory discussion.

Let's say (for the sake of argument - I don't actually agree with it) that we accept your premise that town lynch scum less often than random chance would dictate day 1. I can see two possibilities for this. The first is that towns, because they are generally poor, look for things that town do rather than things that scum do. I can't take this seriously, and besides, it is given the lie by the fact that town do lynch scum fairly frequently on future days. The other explanation, the far more likely one, is that the reason town hit scum less likely that random chance would dictate day 1 is because scum interfere with the lynch - pushing it away from scum and towards townies. In this case, we cans see that there is a clear informational advantage from not random lynching day 1.

Well, I'll elucidate a little further, since that doesn't necessarily follow. With your system of pseudovoting, we do not get the same quality of information. Scum are under no pressure to push the lynch away from scum since they're not going to be lynched anyway. Unless you are saying that we should lynch the person with the most pseudo-votes the next day - an utterly bizarre proposition, since it means we will continually be playing the game 1 day behind. We would be much better off lynching players based on up to date information rather than going with the fact that we pseudolynched him yesterday, but if the pseudovotes carry no weight and no power then there's no point, since they place no pressure on scum. Sometimes playing the numbers is right, but not here.

As a sidenote, I decided to pick a random sample of games to see whether it was true town lynched worse than random day 1. I picked page 2 of little italy (where I figured all the games would be complete) and looked at about half the games on that page. I didn't keep track exactly, but my impression was that scum were lynched day 1 far more often than random.

Anyway, back to the game. Skye's second post already gave me an odd vibe. It felt nervous, a little forced. I didn't like it. But it's early game, it's early impressions. Forgive and forget, right? But then...

His next post he is playing both sides of the argument. I always think this looks scummy. Furthermore, he basically said: "Let's discuss x. I don't think x means anything at all," which is, to put it mildly, odd. His explanation is that it is to prevent people from lurking, which is an awful explanation. Let's all stop scum performing scumtells, ok? The real reason this bugs me is that it is such an odd thing to worry about so early in the game. If we were twenty days in and the game was stalling then I could understand the preoccupation with lurkers. As it is, it just comes off, again, feeling like nervous scum - he seems to need a justification for everything in order to preempt anyone calling him out on it.

So far we have noncomittal and nervous. Then we have opportunistic. DDD is such an easy easy vote. Kairyuu I can understand, Kairyuu is Kairyuu, he's like vollkan used to be, always focuses on small details, gets bogged down and a little bit tunnely. In brief, I understand. But here, this is just blatant wagoning.

Well, in my opinion, this sounds like scum distracting us from his scumbuddy. I do agree that we need to give a bit of a rest on Datadanne, yeah, but not to totally let him off the hook, and write off that any further prodding/investigation would "provide no more information."

Datadanne was the main topic of discussion (and candidate for lynch) at that stage in the game. For DDD to suggest just to, essentially, "drop it" is suspicious and is no help to town.

If I understand correctly, he is voting DDD because he believes that DDD was shifting the topic away from Datadanne. Yet he agrees more or less that we need o move away from Datadanne. His reasoning is awful, and the way he FoSses before voting makes me cringe - I hate it when people give their votes huge buildup in this way. If you think he is scummy, why don't you vote him?

To summarise, because this case is massively disjointed: I get the feeling, over and over, that Skye is trying to avoid attention. He is explaining everything every step of the way, but his explanations don't make sense. He is, wherever possible, taking the position that will offend the least people (neither of them are scummy, I agree DDD is scummy). Even his wording makes me feel he is deliberately trying to give an impression rather than posting naturally. Some examples:

Just to contribute my thoughts, here goes:

Yeah, I agree, I was just explaining my post.

I wasn't saying that specifically Datadanne's posts were important or helpful at all.

I find that my response to that has already been posted.

Weasel wording, weasel wording, always weasel wording. I

feel

this. I was

just

doing that. I wasn't saying the other

specifically

. I agree

but

. And so on.

Also slightly suspicious of nocmen.

[ChiefSkye4]

Furthermore, he basically said: "Let's discuss x. I don't think x means anything at all," which is, to put it mildly, odd.

"I don't think x means anything at all" isn't true. I said that I didn't think he was particularly scummy, and that doesn't mean that no information could be gleaned from the posts.

The real reason this bugs me is that it is such an odd thing to worry about so early in the game. If we were twenty days in and the game was stalling then I could understand the preoccupation with lurkers.

I would hardly call it a preoccupation, and have you ever heard the saying "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure"? The past games I've played in were largely unsuccessful and unrewarding because of the lurking and abandoning of the game. I wasn't calling anyone out, or requesting prods, just an urge to start participating.

And for further reference, I'm a girl

he seems to need a justification for everything in order to preempt anyone calling him out on it.

I like to play transparently, and clearly. Giving my motives for what otherwise could be construed as possibly questionable actions is another one of those "prevention/cure" things. Explain now, in my post, I don't have to repeat myself a dozen times later.

Then we have opportunistic. DDD is such an easy easy vote. Kairyuu I can understand, Kairyuu is Kairyuu, he's like vollkan used to be, always focuses on small details, gets bogged down and a little bit tunnely. In brief, I understand. But here, this is just blatant wagoning.

Well, in my opinion, this sounds like scum distracting us from his scumbuddy. I do agree that we need to give a bit of a rest on Datadanne, yeah, but not to totally let him off the hook, and write off that any further prodding/investigation would "provide no more information."

Datadanne was the main topic of discussion (and candidate for lynch) at that stage in the game. For DDD to suggest just to, essentially, "drop it" is suspicious and is no help to town.

If I understand correctly, he is voting DDD because he believes that DDD was shifting the topic away from Datadanne. Yet he agrees more or less that we need o move away from Datadanne.

Opportunistic? Really? I had suspicions about him. He did scummy things. And what am I supposed to do? "Oh, well, since he's an 'easy vote', I'm gonna ignore my intuition and not vote him." Not quite the intelligent thing to do.

Also for the perceived wishy-washyness of my words about Datadanne, note that there is a stark difference between completely writing him off as "let's just drop him, there's no need for further investigation" (as DDD suggested) and "keeping him in mind". I was suggesting a happy medium, where he's on the backburner of the conversation, but not completely thrown off the grill.

the way he FoSses before voting makes me cringe - I hate it when people give their votes huge buildup in this way. If you think he is scummy, why don't you vote him?

I was asked by VP why I hadn't voted yet, and I responded:

I want to see DDD's response to the evidence...

I wanted to give DDD a chance to respond and make a proper defense before I add my vote. As for the FoSing, I wasn't trying to "give my vote a huge buildup", just showing my then-current views and suspicions. That's what an FoS is for, no?

To summarise, because this case is massively disjointed: I get the feeling, over and over, that Skye is trying to avoid attention.

Avoiding attention? Haha, there are a lot of things you could say about me, but this isn't one of them. I've given my best effort to participate in every major conversation, even those not directly concerning myself.

He is, wherever possible, taking the position that will offend the least people.

I've gotten into disagreements with DDD, VP, Kairyuu, and Nocmen, that's just off of the top of my head. I'm not here to please people, and my views are not formed with that intent. I say what I think, and if

you

think that it's not "offensive enough", my apologies.

Even his wording makes me feel he is deliberately trying to give an impression rather than posting naturally. Some examples:

Just to contribute my thoughts, here goes:

Yeah, I agree, I was just explaining my post.

I wasn't saying that specifically Datadanne's posts were important or helpful at all.

I find that my response to that has already been posted.

Weasel wording, weasel wording, always weasel wording. I

feel

this. I was

just

doing that. I wasn't saying the other

specifically

. I agree

but

. And so on.

My word choice? I'm not quite sure what to say to that one, except for that's how I learned to speak lol. Not forced. I can show you some of my short stories, they have the exact same type of speech. I'll admit that my words can be a bit superfluous at times, but that's my "natural."

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

DDD, do you think if there would be only one scum he/she would slip up with posting the actual number of scum (in this case a percentage)? Could be but I highly doubt it, as well as I doubt there'd be only one scum. Sure there people on their own against town, but there'd definately be multiples of them then.

I think anything is possible, why would we play this game if we didn't think scum was going to make some sort of mistake we could pick up on.

Furthermore, even if there are multiple individual anti-town elements it's unlikely that they'd be informed of each others existence and thus one of those individuals would probably project themselves as the only scum.

[Kairyuu]

No time now. Catching up and content tomorrow.

[Kairyuu]

And Nocmen is still scum, just so ya know

[SilverPhoenix]

The Fifth Votecount

ChiefSkye4 ~ 1

(Shanba)

Shanba ~ 1

(WeyounsLastClone)

Debonair Danny DiPietro ~ 2

(Shinnen_no_Me, Grimmy)

Kairyuu ~ 0
Grimmy ~ 1

(VP Baltar)

Nocmen ~ 2

(Kairyuu, ortolan)

ortolan ~ 0
Shinnen_no_Me ~ 1

(TCold)

TCold ~ 0
VP Baltar ~ 1

(Nocmen)

WeyounsLastClone ~ 0
Not Voting ~

(Debonair Danny DiPietro, ChiefSkye4)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

TCold has not yet picked up his prod and has until tomorrow to do so.

Grimmy

has replaced lixyl by request.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

To answer questions on my vision on double posting: I don’t think double posting on its own is a scumtell. I do think however that scum is more likely to double post than town. Scum can only pretend to be town, so they think by themselves ‘am I acting like a townie?’, which makes them go back to their posts and possibly adjust themselves.

I disagree strongly with this.

Also, when the multiple posts are kind of erratic and in different directions, it might point to scum who’s just trying to point out as much as possible so something sticks.

A stronger argument but I'm still skeptical of it having much/any worth.

L-1 is not premature. Also, early wagons to claims rarely happen anymore, and of the older games where I've seen them they tend to work well to increase the likelihood of D1 scumlynch. Besides, current meta states that L-1 = claim time. I'll not apologize for calling for it.

It was clear there was zero legitimate reason for lynching him at that point in time, and if there was zero legitimate reason for lynching him, then there was zero legitimate reason for asking him to claim.

For your question about my previous defense (if you'd like to call it that) of Datadanne, I was initially just putting my two cents in (which included that I didn't think Datadanne was particularly scummy) and that sparked a discussion over my intentions, where I defended my beliefs. In the post that you quoted, I meant for the reader to infer that Datadanne's actions and posts weren't scummy standing on their own, but with DDD's urging us to drop him as a topic of discussion rather entirely, made them look scummier in the light of a possible partnership.

Ok.

My take on VP's possible slip is this- It's suspicious to a degree, but nothing that's getting my alarm bells going. I wouldn't have even noticed it if it hadn't been pointed out. But maybe that's just me being unobservant.

What slip?

My current take on Datadanne- Wow. Just wow. Useless. Please post something, like, meaningful. Or ask for a replacement. Nao. Lol.

Agreed 110%

This is a bit of outguessing the mod, but I think you may have just slipped up big time.

Unvote
Vote: Nocmen

You talk all your post about Weyouns, Kairyuu and Chief, and you end up voting for Nocmen? And what's more, without reasons? I find this odd.

[VP Baltar]

Checking in for a pre-work post. Last few days have been crazy and haven't been able to find the time to post content.

I have been keeping up, however, and I will say that I agree with the Chief case for the most part. Some of those points I have brought up earlier, and the over explination of her posts comes across as scummy to me as well.

Weyouns has been sticking out to me as a gut reaction lately, but I need to look into more specifically why.

I'm against the Nocumen case based on something that really smelled town to me earlier in the game.

For now my vote is staying, at least until Grimmy checks in and gives us some content (and irreverent humour )

I'll try and find some free time tonight.

[ortolan]

Shanba Re: 129: Is Chiefskye worth a vote at this point?

You talk all your post about Weyouns, Kairyuu and Chief, and you end up voting for Nocmen? And what's more, without reasons? I find this odd.

So you should, if this was an accurate detailing of my post. The quote by Kairyuu, however, is more than enough reason for voting her.

[ortolan]

I actually think we should go straight to being explicit about this:

Nocmen, please read the last paragraph of your post 108 and tell me if you notice any inconsistencies between it and your role pm. No-one else answer this please.

Then, Shinnen, after Nocmen has, please do the same.

[Nocmen]

I actually think we should go straight to being explicit about this:

Nocmen, please read the last paragraph of your post 108 and tell me if you notice any inconsistencies between it and your role pm. No-one else answer this please.

Then, Shinnen, after Nocmen has, please do the same.

I don't see how the two can be directly compared to each other, one is my role pm that states my win condition, and my last paragraph mentioned that I think there are two anti-town factions/persons, neither of which I'm a part of or am.

[ortolan]

Ok.

Shinnen, do you notice any inconsistences between the last paragraph of post 108 and your own role pm?

[Shanba]

I don't feel like engaging in a wall 'o text battle with ChiefSkye. Instead, I'm going to repost my case (with rebuttals at relevant points) as a single unit, rather than a bunch of dispersed impressions. This way, by treating it as an integral whole, I reckon we'll get a far more interesting discussion than simply bickering over what the word "specifically" means or some other such rot. I've seen enough of these back and forths to know that that is was will happen otherwise.

When I say you are avoiding attention, Skye, (and this is pretty much the focal point of my case - all the rest is evidence to support this) I do not mean that you are lurking, hiding, refusing to engage in discussion. It's more like you are being careful not to tread on anyone's toes (I think I already said this). This is why I have an issue with your careful statements about what you are going to do and why you are doing it and what you're going to do next etc. etc. I've seen transparent players, players who explain themselves all the time, and that's not really how they roll. They show their thought process to the town rather than force feed them explanations. I might be willing to cut you some slack, assume this is just something I haven't seen before if it weren't for the fact that your explanations are uninspiring, to say the least. This is why I attacked your comments about bringing out the lurkers in your early post.

Similarly, this caution I feel is why I am calling out your wording. The sentences I picked out above are examples (and I can find many more) of where your wording is almost political in how careful it is not to offend anyone. You post things like "I wasn't saying that specifically" and you get to disagree with someone whilst not really arguing with them at all. Which is avoiding confrontation; another example of this very, very careful play I am attacking. Now, if this is just how you write normally, then that's massively relevant information. I would really like to see one of your short stories for comparison.

Finally, this is what I meant about the vote - why give him a chance to respond? Is a vote really such a big thing? What were you expecting him to say? Where you expecting him to change his mind over what you found scummy, to cede ground - and hell, even if he had, wouldn't that have been scummy in it's own right? What does FoSsing before the vote contribute except the impression that you are a reasonable person? And you trying to give that impression of being reasonable, you being so careful and cautious about what you say and the way you say it, combined with the nervousness of your first post screams scum who wants to avoid attention to me.

You talk about your arguments you've had with people, but they've not really been arguments. You have stated a position on things which is in opposition with other people's positions but you haven't really taken them on.

ortolan - if chiefskye wasn't worth a vote, then I wouldn't be voting her. Duh.

[WeyounsLastClone]

Unvote

He seems a whole lot more valuable to the game than DD. His first analysises (i'm sure that's not the right plural, but okay) seemed coherent and helpful for town.

Vote: Grimmy

This has to do with lixyl's last (and about only) post. Just voting without reason, whahuh? So Grimmy: welcome to the game and looking forward for reasons not to vote you.

[Grimmy]

ok, some thoughts.

Unvote

I can almost sorta kinda understand why this vote occured...

no wait...never mind...that gut feeling was just gas...

however, I almost feel bad for doing this, as I know how hard it is to replace into a game where your predecesor left you in a hole, but

Vote: Shanba

I think your predecessor gave away his scum alignment, and I also think that the driving force behind your case on cheif is to get attention away from yourself by posting a very logical (and well written) case on someone else.

You posted a strong argument, but something tells me that it was to draw attention away from the mistakes your pred. made.

why shouldn't I vote for you?

Cause im fun to be around and the ORIGINAL Weyoun wouldn't have voted me right off the bat! ;p

MY pred.'s post was probably just put in there to try to add something to the game when RL was beating the ***** out of him/her. I know the feeling, been there, done that, doing it tomorrow!. thats why that vote probablty came out that way.

Grimmy
remembers the good times with the original weyoun...and laughs about the better times we were too drunk to remember...ah...second grade ruled!

[Nocmen]

Unvote

He seems a whole lot more valuable to the game than DD. His first analysises (i'm sure that's not the right plural, but okay) seemed coherent and helpful for town.

Vote: Grimmy

This has to do with lixyl's last (and about only) post. Just voting without reason, whahuh? So Grimmy: welcome to the game and looking forward for reasons not to vote you.

So you're going to vote someone because they placed votes around because they didn't have any time to commit to the game?

ok, some thoughts.

Unvote

I can almost sorta kinda understand why this vote occured...

no wait...never mind...that gut feeling was just gas...

however, I almost feel bad for doing this, as I know how hard it is to replace into a game where your predecesor left you in a hole, but

Vote: Shanba

I think your predecessor gave away his scum alignment, and I also think that the driving force behind your case on cheif is to get attention away from yourself by posting a very logical (and well written) case on someone else.

You posted a strong argument, but something tells me that it was to draw attention away from the mistakes your pred. made.

why shouldn't I vote for you?

Cause im fun to be around and the ORIGINAL Weyoun wouldn't have voted me right off the bat! ;p

MY pred.'s post was probably just put in there to try to add something to the game when RL was beating the ***** out of him/her. I know the feeling, been there, done that, doing it tomorrow!. thats why that vote probablty came out that way.

Grimmy
remembers the good times with the original weyoun...and laughs about the better times we were too drunk to remember...ah...second grade ruled!

I don't know if Shanba's predecessor did something like that, but I have a feeling that either him or Chief is scum.

[VP Baltar]

PBPA on WLC

7~Random vote--null
27~OMGUS vote on Datadanne for double posting (what a crime!)--slightly scummy
62~says he does not want a policy lynch of Data (vote remains, total votes at 3), mildly questions DDD vote plan--overall null
65~questions what will happen if data flips town, will DDD not be the next target? Says he wouldn't want it to happen if he was town or scum.Says bussing is a possibility, but highly unlikely. --wonder why bussing would be that unlikely, but null overall
66~confused as to the reason for this double post and if WLC would chastise himself for it--scummy by WLC standards
99~corrects player count (useful). Says he doesn't agree with DDD's approach (vote remains, only he remains at this point not even DDD is voting). Says DDD shouldn't be at L-1 early in the game and should not role claim. protown suggestion, but a safe bet considering other players had already said it. Says double posting is not a sign of scum, but then explains how it might be.--bordering on scummy
107~Tells Data to post content--null
124~defends my math slip (obvtown!), thoughts on meta (not really content), and then I will just quote this part:

I would rather like to see more people pressure Datadanne. Perhaps if he could be put at L-3 or L-2 he would either start to talk, or would be pissed and ask for a replacement, either which is good for the game. So I'll leave my vote where it is now, and hope more people follow. Otherwise I'd change my vote to lixyl, who posts one sentence conveniently joining the most common bandwagon at that moment.

obvscum! simulpost with data asking for replacement, but still trying to push that rock. Asks for town to follow on a player with no real content when other discussions could have been joined (ortolan, nocumen, DDD and I all had such going), and then says that if that wagon doesn't gain momentum he'll just jump to lixyl. --most scummy post he made all game

125~glad Data is gone (who wasn't)--null
142~unvotes Shanba because his cases are more protown. switches vote to Grimmy for lixyl actions. Apart from switching votes to someone before they posted in a game, I found it odd that that this is finally the point he would decide to switch his vote after leaving it on the basically none present Data all day.--slightly scummy

I'm somewhat torn over the case overall, but willing to see where it goes.

Unvote, Vote:WeyounsLastClone

[ChiefSkye4]

I suppose I'll follow suit with Shanaba in responding in paragraph form. :p

As for my word choice, etc. I'll be more than happy to provide a writing sample for you. I checked the rules that the mod posted, and PMing about the game in any form is explicitly against the rules, so, what do you think is the most appropriate way to deliver this? Post it in the thread? And, aside from that, which writing would you like to see? I'm writing a book in my spare time, and I also have a short story (it resembles fanfiction, so it kinda needs a backstory to understand), various poems, and essays and research papers on different topics- which do you prefer?

Addressing your questions about my voting- No, I did not think that one post from DDD would clear up every suspicion, but yes, I do think that a vote is that big of a deal, it put him at L-1. I don't really like to throw around my vote, and maybe that's just my personal "thing". And in reference to my FoSing, sure, it serves no practical practical purpose, it's not going to lynch him, but I think of it as a barometer.

[Shinnen_no_Me]

Ok.

Shinnen, do you notice any inconsistences between the last paragraph of post 108 and your own role pm?

Well, in my role PM I'm said that my victory condition is to kill all puppeteers. Not a word about jokers. So, if I see any inconsistency, is that a townie (albeit all townies received a similar PM) shouldn't be aware of a joker threat (or shouldn't consider it).

[Kairyuu]

OK. Quick note as I begin my larger post:

Nocmen is scum because he does not have the pupeteers as the people he needs to kill to win (hence him not knowing who the scum are flavor-wise) and is therefore one of them.

Shinnen_no_Me is confirmed town in my eyes, because he/she(clarify please) knew that it was the puppeteers that were the scum.

Confirm vote: Nocmen

Sorry friend, the flavor has conspired against you.

[Kairyuu]

@ortolan:

It was clear there was zero legitimate reason for lynching him at that point in time, and if there was zero legitimate reason for lynching him, then there was zero legitimate reason for asking him to claim.

I disagree. I still hold DDD to be reasonably high on my scumlist for the sheer amount of damage that his plan had the potential to cause. I would not be overly concerned if he was lynched right now (though Nocmen is 100% confirmed scum, so him first).

@DDD:

There's an older thread entitled "Mafia is primarily a game of..." which covers much of this ground, though my viewpoint is a minority one in the poll. If you still want to run an actual experiment, I'd be willing to run the statistics if we designed it properly.

That would be interesting. I believe that Shanba may have beaten us to the punch though.

And I didn't call for everyone to unvote, just a single unvote so that if someone like lixyl did exactly what they did that I wouldn't be quick-lynched which would hurt the town. My jumpiness wasn't due to weakness of my arguments, but because of my general distrust of everyone else.

Meh. I'm willing to call your request a null tell at this point because you seem to have been right. I assume people to be rational, but some people just don't fit that description.

@WLC:

@Kairyuu: who is 'Current Meta', and are you let him join this game? J/k I find 'meta' a bit vague and disturbing, and I don't think anyone should use it. Too much excuses can be made when using 'meta' as an argument. I don't think good scum would bound themselves by it.

No using meta, AND no double posting? That's just

mean

.

But seriously. I use player meta, site meta, and tells from past games as parts of my cases. It's how I roll, and it works pretty well (though I used to be quite wary of meta too, until I realized how useful it is).