Mini 749 - Antarctic Mafia [Game Over]

[JereIC]

Did... did you just claim scum?

Why wouldn't you just advocate what is supposedly implied by your "plan," which is that both Fishy and I are scum? I mean, you

are

trying to help the town in theory here, right? Which you'd only do if you were town? So if you think there's a decent enough chance that two of the three of us are scum, and you're town acting in the town's interest, then you think that Fishy and I are scum, right? Why not just post your analysis and say that? Did you think you'd engender good will by volunteering to be killed along with us?

I've begun to get the sinking feeling that the active players in this game are, for the most part, townies, and that the serious lurkers are skating by on perfunctory posts while we argue ourselves into the ground. I'm still reasonably happy with my vote on Fishy, but the way he's responding is giving me pause, and the way Netlava came in and wanted to go back in the L-k direction doesn't seem all that useful to me at best. I'll do a lurker round-up soon, possibly as soon as right away since my flight back home is delayed.

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. I'm not advocating that plan, although I do think there's a good possibility that Fishy and you are both scum. As I said in my post, I'm surprised no one has suggested it. Thinking about it from a neutral townie's perspective, there's a very good possibility that one of us is scum, and a decent possibility that two of us are. If that neutral townie leans towards the two-out-of-three-are-scum theory, then the plan I described starts to sound like a good option. Not everyone would have thought of it, but the people who would have either have seen a flaw in that plan, don't think more than one of us is scum, or have more information than they're letting on.

Should I give up or should I keep on chasing pavements? Even if it leads nowhere?

Netlava - 1 (Light-kun)
DraketheFake - 1 (FishytheFish)
Looker - 2 (HowardRoark, DraketheFake)

Not Voting - 5 (Jazzmyn, Nuwen, Netlava, JereIC, Looker)

9 alive, 5 to lynch.

-Mod

(Vote Count accurate as of Post 484)

[DraketheFake]

It's just a pretty weird tack to take, especially given that (if we're assuming three scum) there's a pretty decent chance that two out of any given three players are scum.

Bed time.

[Jazzmyn]

I find the case against Fishy more compelling than the case against Drake, although I get a scum-vibe from both of them. Yet, they are currently voting against each other. Pretty bold bussing if they are both scum.

I plan to do a re-read today in order to firm up my thoughts, update my game notes, and cast a vote.

@Looker, you have yet to contribute anything to the game since replacing. Please give us your thoughts and input on the game so far.

Regards,
Jazz

[Looker]

i would but im still swallowing the drake and fishy cases - it started without me so i have no right to impose upon something i have yet to thoroughly understand. your concern is appreciated

[Fishythefish]

I can't really be accused of getting the freeko bandwagon going. My vote was for different reasons to all the other votes on him, including my later vote, and is pretty much unrelated to the bandwagon on him. I think you are clouded by hindsight; at the time, freeko was under no kind of pressure, and this is no more an attempt to bandwagon than any other first vote on a player. As I've expressed above, can't see a reason to think that hops from DDD to freeko are particularly scummy votes. The part of my voting pattern most worthy of attention is definitely my vote on DDD. This is the most beneficial vote of the three for scum by far, and merits attention; I suggest you look at the post and other posts I had made on DDD, and decide whether or not you think I justified it sufficiently.

This is such a suspect sentiment. Refusing to admit that adding a fourth vote onto a player pushes the second wagon to the forefront is short-sighted at best, and then to say "I can't be suspicious for this vote, but you should check out my other suspicious vote" is both a decoy and just odd.

My entire voting pattern was being talked about when I made this post. That is why I gave my thoughts on the vote analysis of all of my votes.
Of course my vote pushed the second wagon to the forefront. But since the scum didn't care which wagon won, this is not that beneficial for them- unless you think DDD's wagon was already doomed when I switched.

Meh. My position here started as "I don't think that the voting analysis is very strong here, because the paired wagons were both townies and the mafia didn't care which lynch happened. I think without case analysis, conclusions on how likely those three players are to be scum are unconvincing". If you read the many posts I've made on this, that is all I've ever really said, and I don't think this position is absurd or scummy.

However, I take the point (made implicitly in various places) that DDD's wagon did become unviable at some point- arguably quite early on- and I didn't take this enough into account. This does invalidate my analysis to some extent, and my position that these votes were neutral is too extreme. Vote analysis does suggest that late voters on freeko are more likely to be scum, as are early voters on DDD (which I never denied). I still think this is lessened by the fact that both the wagons were on townies. I am amazed that Jere seems to think the vote analysis is strong enough that anyone would think it sensible to kill all three of us without further ado, and I think the main reason noone has suggested that is it's a horribly anti-town idea.

I find the case against Fishy more compelling than the case against Drake, although I get a scum-vibe from both of them.

I am currently pretty unclear about what the case against me actually is. Jazz, could you explain the points against me you find compelling please?

[Looker]

doubt it...

[Light-kun]

doubt it...

What?

Nothing's changed for me. DTF attack against Jere is...meh...I might eliminate Jere tomorrow night to facilitate things, but... No, no...
No need to plan ahead. I do endorse the option of hanging up the fish.

Shall I kill DTF? As long as they are evil, I will write down anyone in my notebook.

[DraketheFake]

Nothing's changed for me. DTF attack against Jere is...meh...I might eliminate Jere tomorrow night to facilitate things, but... No, no...
No need to plan ahead. I do endorse the option of hanging up the fish.

This is not useful. Having claimed does not excuse you from playing the game.

You also need to submit to the idea that you're going to be told who, if anyone, to kill. Otherwise you're a detriment to the town, and vigs who screw the town don't last very long.

If we don't lynch scum today, for instance, you better not go vigging anyone willy-nilly.

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. I'm not advocating that plan, although I do think there's a good possibility that Fishy and you are both scum.

You weren't advocating that plan? But it surprises you that nobody else has advocated for it?

If there's three scum total, then we go into the last day with one scum and two or three pro-town players (depending on if we have Vig-kun strike night after next), and it will be easier to find the last scum.

However, if only one of us is scum, and there's three scum total, then killing all three of us screws town. The doc would have to get lucky for the town to win.

The bolded part sounds an awful lot like, say, advocacy. Especially when you consider that you just said that you do believe that both Fishy and I are scum.

You know what might have worked better? Saying "I think that Drake and Fishy are scum," and voting for one of us. You know: making a case.

In any event, I'm pretty sold on the idea that you, I, and Fishy are merely townies swept up in the tide of unfortunate circumstances and that the lurkers deserve more attention.

Unvote, Vote: Looker

.

For an aggressive amount of active lurking, a complete dearth of actual content, and the continued insistence that people are making posts that are too long.

[Jazzmyn]

Just a quick head's up - I will have little to no access until Tuesday night.

Regards,
Jazz

[Light-kun]

Nothing's changed for me. DTF attack against Jere is...meh...I might eliminate Jere tomorrow night to facilitate things, but... No, no...
No need to plan ahead. I do endorse the option of hanging up the fish.

This is not useful. Having claimed does not excuse you from playing the game.

You also need to submit to the idea that you're going to be told who, if anyone, to kill. Otherwise you're a detriment to the town, and vigs who screw the town don't last very long.

If we don't lynch scum today, for instance, you better not go vigging anyone willy-nilly.

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. I'm not advocating that plan, although I do think there's a good possibility that Fishy and you are both scum.

You weren't advocating that plan? But it surprises you that nobody else has advocated for it?

If there's three scum total, then we go into the last day with one scum and two or three pro-town players (depending on if we have Vig-kun strike night after next), and it will be easier to find the last scum.

However, if only one of us is scum, and there's three scum total, then killing all three of us screws town. The doc would have to get lucky for the town to win.

The bolded part sounds an awful lot like, say, advocacy. Especially when you consider that you just said that you do believe that both Fishy and I are scum.

You know what might have worked better? Saying "I think that Drake and Fishy are scum," and voting for one of us. You know: making a case.

In any event, I'm pretty sold on the idea that you, I, and Fishy are merely townies swept up in the tide of unfortunate circumstances and that the lurkers deserve more attention.

Unvote, Vote: Looker

.

For an aggressive amount of active lurking, a complete dearth of actual content, and the continued insistence that people are making posts that are too long.

I did play. My responses were met unsatifactorily. While claiming vig doesn't excuse me from the game, it does mean that I have a nice shiny gun to shoot people. So, since a few people in the town, (should there be enough to save me from lynch, I'll probably do it), want both you and Fish dead, I think that your just worried that if we catch two scum (ie, you and fish), you don't want to die when fish flips scum.

[Looker]

In any event, I'm pretty sold on the idea that you, I, and Fishy are merely townies swept up in the tide of unfortunate circumstances and that the lurkers deserve more attention.

Unvote, Vote: Looker

.

For an aggressive amount of active lurking, a complete dearth of actual content, and the continued insistence that people are making posts that are too long.

Right...okay, cool, if that's your story stick to it. It's not very convincing, though, I'll tell you that, Mr. "Swept Up In The Tide" (that

was

a fish joke, right? funny)

O and when did I say people were making posts that were too long?

[Looker]

god i sound like an asshole...i was trying to be funny...

[DraketheFake]

O and when did I say people were making posts that were too long?

Well...

I say stick wit fishy - his posts are HUGE!!!

There.

suppose you thought I were scum - how would you go about confirming your suspicions? would a pressuring vote suffice you or would you be dissatisfied until you ascertained a humungous post of humungous words...?

There.

THAT'S what I meant! The humungous post with the humgous words!

Anyway, why isn't anyone voting? You can vote for me if you like. I don't mind.

And there.

[Light-kun]

I don't like Looker...
He distracts me...
Anyway, I feel a lack of people in our little community. Who wants to come forward, hm? Maybe everyone should sign my notebook, that way I can be sure to have a roll call next time we have a meeting and there will be less inactivity. Hm...?

Hehe... and when its all done, you'll be able to see each other in Hell... <--DN reference.

Seriously though, we made need a mass prod. *Makes note to ask for one if people remain MIA.

[Netlava]

Sorry for the delay. I will probably post later today.

[Netlava]

First off, I do think Light is more likely SK/scum, but I think it can wait for a day.

Alright, here's my pick:

Vote: JereIC

Mizz, if you’re short on time, you should try skimming the posts during your busy days and do more thorough readings when you’ve got more free time. When you skim, take note of what seems suspicious, and why, and then you can make a quick post about it. When you do the more thorough readings, try to think through what everyone is saying, see if it’s logical, if it’s consistent with what they’ve said previously, and if it’s something you think a townie would say. If everything works right, you find somebody who’s lying out of his ass and vote for him (just like politics!). As for people being mean, you gotta remember this game is basically where we pretend to gang up and kill each other. Tensions are going to rise and feelings will be hurt (especially for the people who turn out to be mafia).

Too long and too nice. Post-padding!! I dunno, it just seems insincere.

I have to agree with na85 that Light-kun’s post was picking a troll. You can argue that na85 is active lurking by just agreeing with other people, but Light-kun’s post was just picking a fight without reason.

Not sure, I think posting this type of stuff without having some sort of conclusion is scummy.

DDD seems to be constantly reversing his position and twisting his own words in response to anyone accusing him of saying something odd. In post 177,

The way this is worded is suspicious. I think scum would be more likely to word it as "constantly reversing his position and twisting his own words." Why? Because it's a bit overdone. Plus constantly reversing his position is in the present tense. I would word it as the past tense in order to be more accurate.

Freeko, your posts have lost all touch with reality, and I'm leaning towards voting you now. DDD has responded very coolly and rationally under pressure, and while it may be an act, it looks a lot better in comparison to you totally freaking the hell out crazy-style for no apparent reason.

Don't like the wording "lost all touch with reality." I also think it's more likely to be used by scum. Plus, he "leans towards voting" freeko. It seems a bit opportunistic.

Light's 372 is pure BS.

Histrionics? Especially in the context of the rest of his post.

However, if only one of us is scum, and there's three scum total, then killing all three of us screws town. The doc would have to get lucky for the town to win.

I just don't see town considering this.

[Netlava]

To summarize: I find the way he words things scummy.

[DraketheFake]

That's a pretty weak case you've got there, Net. I just don't see anything extraordinary about any of Jere's play except the most recent thing, which looks to me more like a townie trying to hedge his bets on saying "I think these two players are scum" rather than any sort of malicious thought process. Sure, he's chaining lynches, but he made himself a part of that chain, which is WIFOM, sure, but it's also going to backfire if we go along with it because we're probably going to go after him first, and if he flips scum then the whole thing gets called off. That's a pretty big risk to take, isn't it?

I still like Looker. Howard's been flying under for me, too, so I'll go ahead and take another look-see at him.

[Netlava]

Okay... well, if you don't agree, that's your opinion.

[JereIC]

Net, that's a terrible case (in my opinion). Why did my comment to Mizz seem insincere? Why isn't "LK is a troll" a satisfactory conclusion to my observation about his post? How is the present tense more suspicious than the past tense (especially given that other people use it all the time when reviewing other people's posts)? Why is scum more likely to use the phrase "lost all touch with reality"? Why are you uncertain about whether me calling BS on Light is histrionics or not, and what do you mean "[e]specially in context"? Why wouldn't town weight and consider flaws with that plan (or reject it outright if there's a flaw that's obvious to everyone besides me)? Just in general, huh?

DtF, when I want to build a case against you and Fishy I will and you won't have to infer anything. I still believe that Nuwen is right that one of you two are scum. I'm just not sure if you're both scum or not.

[JereIC]

EBWOP: Nuwen believes some of the three of us is/are scum. I agree with her, and further believe that one of you two is scum.

[Looker]

O and when did I say people were making posts that were too long?

Well...

I say stick wit fishy - his posts are HUGE!!!

There.

suppose you thought I were scum - how would you go about confirming your suspicions? would a pressuring vote suffice you or would you be dissatisfied until you ascertained a humungous post of humungous words...?

There.

THAT'S what I meant! The humungous post with the humgous words!

Anyway, why isn't anyone voting? You can vote for me if you like. I don't mind.

And there.

Lol. Those don't say anything about me hating humungous posts. If you read the first one again, you'll see that I'm advocating fishy's huge posts, as to say "stick wit fishy, he knows what he's talking about". And the following posts are me trying to figure out if I'm ever going to have to do that because I suck at them.

I don't like Looker...
He distracts me...
Anyway, I feel a lack of people in our little community. Who wants to come forward, hm? Maybe everyone should sign my notebook, that way I can be sure to have a roll call next time we have a meeting and there will be less inactivity. Hm...?

Hehe... and when its all done, you'll be able to see each other in Hell... <--DN reference.

Seriously though, we made need a mass prod. *Makes note to ask for one if people remain MIA.

Sorry for being distracting....

[Fishythefish]

Lol. Those don't say anything about me hating humungous posts. If you read the first one again, you'll see that I'm advocating fishy's huge posts, as to say "stick wit fishy, he knows what he's talking about". And the following posts are me trying to figure out if I'm ever going to have to do that because I suck at them.

I had read your stick wit fishy as "stick wit fishy for the lynch, his posts are too big", and presumed it was a joke.

Anyway, proper post coming later tonight.

[Looker]

lol no

[Fishythefish]

- Drake hasn't responded to my case since I clarified it- Drake, I think that between your unvote of DDD and your vote on freeko, it is completely unclear why you changed your mind. His withdrawal (to some extent) of suspicions on me could be genuine, or could be an attempt to make me less suspicious of him. I lean towards the latter because of his extremely easy switch to a lurker- it smells like he wants to change his vote, and has looked for the easiest way out. I'm still happy with my vote.

- Netlava thinks L-k is likely SK/scum now, whereas before likely SK. If you think there is more than a very outside chance of L-k being scum, you should say why, because that is a very different thing from him being SK, and it is scummy that you are happy with not lynching him. If I thought L-k was probable SK with a non-negligible chance of mafia, I'd be pressing hard for a lynch.
Netlava's case on Jere boils down to some pretty minor uses of emotional language. I'm not at all convinced by it.

-Nuwen, Howard, Jazzmyn and Looker need to post on recent developments, or just anything in some cases.

- JereIC brings up what I feel is an insane plan, and expresses surprise that it has not being suggested by anyone else. Well, the big question is why, even if he is surprised? He doesn't want the plan to happen. I doubt he is calling everyone in the town scummy for not suggesting it. I can see only one reason; he wants to say "Well, I don't want to be lynched. But if it's for the good of the town, fair enough", while not actually thinking the plan is likely to be carried out. Jere; what good did you think it would do to bring up this plan?