Newbie 764 - Game Over

[Japles]

Happy Belated Birthday to you, Sando.

unvote

With all this content... and I have been busy for a few days... so I will do a re-read and post later. I have the next couple of days off.

Yay me.

[Korts]

Sorry! Got prodded. Unfortunately I have been busy with another game and I'm three pages behind still. I'll catch up soon, promise.

[Kairyuu]

@Sando:

I'll try and get something comprehensive later, but it's my birthday today, I might not have time for a day or 2.

Happy Birthday! Take all the time you need.

Regarding the maths, Inifinis does have a point in that you need to work out the 'random 2' using 8 players instead of 9. Obviously you're not going to include yourself in that. So the chances of picking any 2 people completely randomly and them being scum are: 2/8 x 1/7 = 3.57%

I covered this already. That doesn't work because it is tainted by alignment. Assuming a townie is doing that, yes, the math works out, but assuming scum is making the prediction, they know with 100% certainty whether their choices are scum or not. You can't have subjective math and actually try to trust it.

However, i was thinking, and this was in relation to Kai's gambit, what are the chances that he randomly picked 2 people and 1 or both were scum? I haven't done maths in a while, but it would seem to be 1-(6/8 x 5/7) = 46.43% chance that of the 2 people you randomly pick, 1 or both will be scum.

That doesn't look quite right. If you assume I am a townie (again, getting into subjective math) then if I pick two people randomly, they each have an independant 25% chance of being scum

assuming pure random chance

, which does not take into account that I had a pretty decent read on Korts right away, and then that i felt that Chaos was more likely town based on his responses to attacks against him.

If you assume I am scum though, the math is totally up to me, and I could have picked two townies randomly to use, giving a 0% chance of the attacked being scum, or I could have lumped my buddy in with a townie to give myself credibility if one of the lynches went through, giving a solid 100% chance that at least one was scum.

The differences in the math based on alignment makes all of these calculations totally useless though, and makes the only actually valid set the 2.87% one, because it does not rely on alignment.

Infinis did tend to falter off after he got 3.57% and started bringing in completely arbitrary numbers, which could be him trying to 'force' the numbers to give him the result that he wants. Seems a bit dodgy, but I also think Kai's case against him is pretty forced.

Please expand upon both points mentioned here in your next comprehensive post. I have a sneaking suspicion that your predisposition to be being scum (given by the fact that you are still voting me), will lend to your thinking that anything I say will either be forced or weak.

@Infinis:

I think the flip flopping on your vote Kai should be noted. I guess you don't FoS anyone? Straight to vote?

Depends on my mood. Generally I use them on my second or third on my scumlist, but I'm trying to keep my attention focused on one at a time this game, as a sort of test to see if I can manage it.

I defended myself against a misrep. If you thought it little so be it, but I thought it was a good launching point for my discussion of the gambit. OMGUS voting me, really... as an IC?

How is it OMGUS if you haven't decided whether or not I'm scummy? You haven't voted, or even FOSed me yet, and your entire 'accusation' concludes with you not being sure if I'm town or scum. Besides the fact that that attitude is fence-sitting, and scummy, it doesn't amount to anything in the line of something that could draw an OMGUS.

I have to take you at face value. You like aggressive play and sometimes end up flailing.

Trust me, I haven't flailed at all this game. Every move I've made has been calculated, and the pieces are falling into place now.

I am still pondering scum versus town.

Hence why my vote was not OMGUS.

@Lurkers: Post dammit! We're beginning to get close to deadline and I still have several non-reads in my chart!

@all: Interesting thing to note. millar is lurking, which is

extremely

odd for him from my experience. This may require looking into.

[Sando]

Meta Game:

Poker, you set up a bluff by playing a consistent way so that people believe you’re doing that again next time you bluff.

Please expand upon both points mentioned here in your next comprehensive post. I have a sneaking suspicion that your predisposition to be being scum (given by the fact that you are still voting me), will lend to your thinking that anything I say will either be forced or weak.

I take it that this is a typo and should say “your predisposition to ME being scum”. Well your vote for him was based off post 114 for the most part from what I can see. The maths that Infinis brings in, after the 3.57% (I’ll address the 8vs9 thing in a minute), is completely arbitrary, and it’s really not maths after that point. But I can see what he’s trying to say. So while I think that his maths is fatally flawed, I think it is not a scummy attempt to make you look like scum. I also think he’s misunderstood your gambit, not misrepresented it, and I think I’ve had quite a bit of experience with the different this game

The second point against Infinis, the much more telling in my view, is his defence of me “he’s acquitted himself quite well”, followed by “But hopefully after a more thorough reread I will find that Sando's arguments may be strong or they may be weak”. These 2 almost directly contradict each other. However, while bad, I don’t think we need to vote him right now, I think we need to push him to provide his comprehensive re-read, and analyse that.

As to your case against Infinis, you accused him of making an accusation against you, which you seem to have taken back now? I think concluding that he is either accusing you of being scum or setting you up to be accused is a bit of stretch given what he wrote. I think he was more trying to point out why he didn’t agree with your gambit and its results. You said he was being a ‘hypocrite’, when what he was doing was not hypocritical, he was just wrong in what he did. And lastly you attack him for wishi-washiness, this seems to be your new catchphrase, you’re accusing all of us of it, I really don’t buy it at all as a tell. If he claims he’ll do something and doesn’t do it, then it’s a tell, but give him time to finalise his thoughts.

This was pretty much all that had been posted when I made my comment, more has been posted since, but you can’t hold me accountable for what gets said after I’ve said it. I don’t want to write too much more on this right now, if you want clarification ask for it, otherwise I’m waiting for Infinis to provide a more detailed re-read.

Kairyuu, maths time

Well, actually, not really, I think we agree on the maths, just not how to apply it. You feel that you should take the point of view when randomly picking 2 people, that you don’t assume that you’re townie. This basically means that you’ve decided to run your gambit before you get your PM on role. 2 things: 1, you still have to change the maths, as not only wouldn’t you choose yourself, but for the sake of the gambit, you couldn’t. 2, you’ve stated you wouldn’t run the gambit (or any gambit for that matter) as scum, therefore you must assume that you are a townie for the purposes of the maths. These aren’t subjective statements, they’re practical, logical, objective reasonings for why it should not include you in the maths.

As to my actual maths being right. Well my take was this, you pick 1 person out of 8 first up, you have a 75% chance that they will be townie. Now you choose another person, you have a 5 in 7 chance of them being townie (71.43%). Therefore you have 71.43% x 75% chance of them both being townie, or 53.57% chance. Therefore, you have a 46.43% chance of it being something else, ie 1 or both being scum.

Again, you've stated that you got a read on Korts and Chaos, which invalidates all maths, and I'm not trying to accuse you of anything with this maths, I just find it interesting in an intellectual way rather than a scummy way.

I’m still pretty busy, I’ll post more later tonight after I get back, prolly around 12 hours assuming i'm not too drunk, this is getting epically long anyway. But when you ask for clarification of points, clarification you get

[Sando]

Sorry, ignore that top paragraph regarding meta game and poker, it was notes that I'm taking, and I wrote this in word and forgot to delete it. It'll make a bit more sense later when i post later tonight.

[Kairyuu]

@Sando:

I take it that this is a typo and should say “your predisposition to ME being scum”.

Yup. Sorry 'bout that.

So while I think that his maths is fatally flawed, I think it is not a scummy attempt to make you look like scum.

I don't remember saying that his math was an attempt to incriminate me (though I may be wrong, since I'm not bothering to look it up at the moment).

I also think he’s misunderstood your gambit, not misrepresented it, and I think I’ve had quite a bit of experience with the different this game

I also don't remember accusing him of that. Quite the opposite. I believe it was him who accused me of misrepresenting his point, which was extremely minor, and my 'misrep' didn't even contain an accusation.

The second point against Infinis, the much more telling in my view, is his defence of me “he’s acquitted himself quite well”, followed by “But hopefully after a more thorough reread I will find that Sando's arguments may be strong or they may be weak”. These 2 almost directly contradict each other.

Yep. There's that. He sounds like he's trying to decide which position to take, but hasn't figured out which one will benefit him most (aka. a scummy motive for his actions, one of the best tells out there).

I don’t think we need to vote him right now, I think we need to push him to provide his comprehensive re-read, and analyse that.

Pushing = pressure. Pressure is accomplished through votes. I throw my vote around to provide pressure sometimes. This is not one of those times, but it still fits the bill. The best way to get someone to do something that they are unlikely to do is to build a wagon, because then they feel the pressure of an imminent lynch, and are more likely to comply (yes, strong arm tactics are fun).

As to your case against Infinis, you accused him of making an accusation against you, which you seem to have taken back now?

Sorta. I can't figure out if he's attacking me or not, since he keeps going for it and then backing off and trying to pacify me in the same post (another example of trying to play both sides of the argument to see which one will be better for him in the long run).

I think he was more trying to point out why he didn’t agree with your gambit and its results.

Hmm. It seems we are having a problem communicating. This math stuff that I'm using has nothing to do with my gambit. It was a purely theoretical exercise to show that Infinis' original assumption (that both ICs were scum) has a very lowe probability of actually being the case. His response post brought in the gambit, but that is a separate thing altogether.

You said he was being a ‘hypocrite’, when what he was doing was not hypocritical, he was just wrong in what he did.

Ojanen pointed out that I misread the point I accused him of being a hypocrite over. I dropped that point entirely.

And lastly you attack him for wishi-washiness

I don't think that wishy-washiness is the best phrase for it now that I think about it. More like playing both sides of the argument.

this seems to be your new catchphrase, you’re accusing all of us of it,

Really? Where? Another thing I don't remember doing (perhaps I'm just tired).

I really don’t buy it at all as a tell. If he claims he’ll do something and doesn’t do it, then it’s a tell, but give him time to finalise his thoughts.

Totally different situations. Playing both sides of the same point and not following through with something you say you'll do are different things. Both can imply scumminess, but they are not the same tell.

This was pretty much all that had been posted when I made my comment, more has been posted since, but you can’t hold me accountable for what gets said after I’ve said it. I don’t want to write too much more on this right now, if you want clarification ask for it, otherwise I’m waiting for Infinis to provide a more detailed re-read.

Understood and agreed.

Well, actually, not really, I think we agree on the maths, just not how to apply it. You feel that you should take the point of view when randomly picking 2 people, that you don’t assume that you’re townie. This basically means that you’ve decided to run your gambit before you get your PM on role. 2 things: 1, you still have to change the maths, as not only wouldn’t you choose yourself, but for the sake of the gambit, you couldn’t. 2, you’ve stated you wouldn’t run the gambit (or any gambit for that matter) as scum, therefore you must assume that you are a townie for the purposes of the maths. These aren’t subjective statements, they’re practical, logical, objective reasonings for why it should not include you in the maths.

As a said somewhere in this post already, my math was not based around my gambit and the likelyhood of using scum as bait, it was simply to show that assuming both ICs to be scum is foolish and doesn't go with what the actual, random math says.

As to my actual maths being right. Well my take was this, you pick 1 person out of 8 first up, you have a 75% chance that they will be townie. Now you choose another person, you have a 5 in 7 chance of them being townie (71.43%). Therefore you have 71.43% x 75% chance of them both being townie, or 53.57% chance. Therefore, you have a 46.43% chance of it being something else, ie 1 or both being scum.

I think that's a bit off, but you're close. Since you're trying to figure out the % chance of including scum, you need to look at it from the side of the scum. You have a 1/4 chance that the first will be scum, and a 1/4 chance that the second will, assuming the variables to be independant (which we must, because it is an 'or' statement). From there I think we can just add the variables, giving us a 2/4, or 50% chance that one of them is scum (with no calculation being necessary for both, because if 1 is scum, then it fulfills the criteria of 'one or more') assuming completely random chance, and assuming that the person making the gambit is town.

I’m still pretty busy, I’ll post more later tonight after I get back, prolly around 12 hours assuming i'm not too drunk, this is getting epically long anyway. But when you ask for clarification of points, clarification you get

Odd. Thought I mentioned that there was no hurry. Guess I forgot.

[Infinis]

Reread #1 accomplished.

My initial reaction is that Sando and Kai are not in some kind of gambit. As for any other conclusions, the waters are muddy and the fence is quite a good seat to try and sort things out from. However I feel Kai has made some good points towards play. He has continually prompted the town for discussion, which is always good. Unfortunately the jumping around of his vote seems noncommittal just as bad as the fence sitting he accuses me of.
@kai Yes flail is too strong a word for your vote changing.
Kai's case against Sando is good, not manipulative. Sando's defense and Kai's counterattack need a second reread.

So to my vote, three nothing posts in the past 8 days?

Vote: korts

And finally, I have to recover from the term "subjective math". Wow just wow. You have to assume that the voter is town, since a scum knows his scum buddies and has no need to guess who is scum.

Let's clear it up now since Ill be gone for the weekend, mostly.

Fact: 9 players
Fact: 2 scum in that group
Axiom: Each player can vote for any of the eight other players. (i dont know the rules about self voting)
Fact: Scum know who their buddy is, therefore no scum hunting for them

A townie has 6 possible town player votes out of the 8 players remaining
Therefore, 6/8 or 75% chance that the townie does not find scum on his first pick.

We eliminate this first voted player from the players selection pool, so we have 7 choices left. Therefore, 5/7 or ~=71% chance that the townie does not find scum with his second pick.

We are looking at the totality of the events. (bad phrasing) Better yet is the roulette analogy. If red has come up on the last 100 spins what is the chance the next spin is red assuming the wheel has no green zeros? 50%. What is the chance that red is spun 101 times? 2000000:1

.75 x .71 = .5325 or 53% two random picks by a townie are both not scum, which as pointed out and 1 - .53 = 47% chance that at least a single scum is chosen.

Anyway the point I was trying to make has long been lost. You said I accused you of bussing a scum buddy,(yes the chance both IC's being scum is slim, but it is a possibility nonetheless). I responded that I did no such thing and that you exonerated another player with little to go on, in order to condemn another. I agree it was minor but this is day 1 and we have little to go on. I will look at the case(s) made against who and by whom. I believe that with the arguments made to date, we won't need anymore maths.

And I too have a plan, let's see where it goes.

[Chaos40]

Really sorry guys for my absence, real life has gotten away from me and I'm only on now for five minutes to post this. I will be V/LA until Monday afternoon. I'll re-read and catch up then. Again, really sorry.

[Ojanen]

At this point I'll vote for the person that has bugged me most constantly as suspicious. I've been waiting for him to come and answer the questions that were raised about his vote on Sando but my patience is wearing out. He seemingly put Sando to L-1 for obscure self-defense reasons. His posts haven't had much substance at all, and often he has mostly responded to stuff related to him, not so much giving opinions on anything else going on in the game. Also, based on Kairyuu's timings of bringing his cases to the table, I wouldn't find the scumteam Kairyuu/Japles unlikely.

vote Japles

My initial reaction is that Sando and Kai are not in some kind of gambit. As for any other conclusions, the waters are muddy and the fence is quite a good seat to try and sort things out from.

Do you mean by this that your conclusion is that they're not scum together? (That is a rather mild and, looking at everything, seemingly obvious result.)

Kairyuu, what gave you a pretty decent read of Korts is his first posts?
What is wrong with trying on and describing the subjective math perspective - "if he is town then how much sense do these actions and assumptions make?" I'd think that's a standard tool of thought to evaluate if someone's behaviour is consistent.

[Korts]

Infinis, what's the point in the vote for me? It seems more of an alibi-vote than anything.

[Korts]

Posting things as I read up.

By the way, as an IC, how come that you know that a quick lynch is almost never good for town, you know i'm at L-2 (you just posted) and yet make no mention of it. Thanks for confirming my views on you.

L-2 is not a serious threat at this game size. This is a very big overreaction, especially considering that you aren't overreacting to the L-2 directly, rather overreacting to a reaction to the L-2.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Official Vote Count

Sando - 2 (Chaos40, Korts)

Kairyuu - 1 (Sando)
Infinis - 1 (Kairyuu)
Korts - 1 (Infinis)
Japles - 1 (Ojanen)

Not Voting - 3 (Japles, Josh Lyman, Millar13)

5 to Lynch

[Sando]

Damn rugby, not only did that Tahs lose, but now Ojanen has competely beaten me to the post.

The whole Japles/Kairyuu thing is disturbing me a hell of a lot. Japles actions throughout have been really odd, Japles agreement that he was ‘just trying to fit it’ seemed incredibly scummy, but it got pushed to the sidelines when the whole Kai vs Sando thing blew up. Japles then put me at L-1 with absolutely no reasoning, and when pushed on it provided none either.

When I questioned Kai on this, he was having none of it, absolutely refused to post anything regarding Japles.

He gave a reason, but the reason was crap. I think he is suspicious, but not enough to warrant my vote or attention right now.

The reason Japles gave wasn’t crap, it was utter crap, there was absolutely nothing to it. Kai has been voting people left and right since then, but Japles has somehow avoided his attention, despite this obvious problem. It really does make very little sense, unless they’re scum together.

The other thing I wanted to bring up (but i think Infinis beat me to this one) is that I can’t work out the whole Korts and Kairyuu thing now. Kairyuu has attacked Josh Lyman and Bekkatha (now Millar13) for inactivity, yet completely ignores the pretty obvious active-lurking of Korts. Korts has been around and posting the odd small thing, with no substance, since his last substance post on the 2nd of April, where he voted me. Now I know that from reading Kai’s previous games and his reacting to Josh and Bekkatha, he has a pretty dim view of people lurking and is a strong advocate of it being a scumtell, yet he hasn’t even mentioned Korts lurking. Personally I feel we have some time to give to Korts to reply, but I’m very surprised that Kairyuu hasn’t brought up Korts yet has attacked the other 2 for lurking.

On the subject of attacking people for lurking, I thought that Kai let Josh L off the hook incredibly easily. Josh L posted a 2 sentence explanation and Kai was happy to accept that immediately, no questions asked. I honestly can’t understand this from the point of view of either a townie or a scum, Kai, can you please explain why you didn’t push Josh any harder, maybe get him to provide some input when he can?





I also need to explain my stupid posting of meta gaming and poker. It was in relation to Kai’s defence of his gambit, and his claim that he never gambits as scum. Well, I play a bit of poker, and anyone with a passing knowledge of the game knows about bluffing. There are 2 good opportunities for people to bluff in poker, when noone knows your playstyle at the start of a game, and later once you’ve developed a playstyle and can make people believe you’re following it.

Now Kai is well aware, especially given that I brought it up as a part of ‘The Slip’, that anyone in this game can go back and look at his previous games, so the option of bluffing when noone knows his playstyle is denied to him, although he did try to claim that he doesn’t have a defined playstyle at one point, something he later contradicts with his claim that he never gambits as scum, but you know…

That just leaves him the option of convincing us that he’s following his ‘normal’ playstyle while he does something else. This is the classic bluff, you play your 4-3 offsuit cards the same way as you normally play your A-K, convincing people that you have the A-K when in fact you have the 4-3. You can’t do this very often, but if you do it sparingly, it can be devastating, and almost impossible to pick.

What I’m trying to say is that you cannot just assume that because someone is playing the same way as they usually do, that they are the same alignment. It would be perfectly normal for a good player to set up a ‘normal’ persona for themselves so that they can bluff effectively as scum. If someone can’t act as their own ‘normal’ persona as scum, then they wont last long in this game.

Kai’s claim of ‘I never gambit as scum, therefore since I gambit’ed this game I’m not scum’, cannot be taken at face value. Firstly, he could be bluffing as stated above, and secondly, it wasn’t much of a gambit, he didn’t risk his partner unless his partner is either Korts or Chaos, although he claims this is the main reason he wouldn’t gambit.

All in all, I’ve changed my mind from Kai/Chaos to Kai/Japles, and the more I look at it, the more I think Japles is scum, and Kai just refusing to get drawn into a comment on Japles seems really dodgy as well. I’m open to comments on either at the moment, Ojanen certainly seems to be set of Japles more than Kai, that’s ok with me, although I would like to hear more from other people.

L-2 is not a serious threat at this game size. This is a very big overreaction, especially considering that you aren't overreacting to the L-2 directly, rather overreacting to a reaction to the L-2.

Yes, it’s not a huge problem, but I was pretty disappointed that 2 ICs had put me at L-2 without any discussion of the ramifications of more people voting for me. Not to mention the fact that Kairyuu has now accused 3 different people of being scum since then, and he refuses to consider the person who put me at L-1, if he is right on any of those 3, they could have easily hammered without any discussion from the ICs as to the ramifications of that. I felt that a huge opportunity for discussion had the opportunity to be lost, and that wasn’t a good thing.

Infinis, what's the point in the vote for me? It seems more of an alibi-vote than anything.

What’s an alibi-vote?

I don't remember saying that his math was an attempt to incriminate me (though I may be wrong, since I'm not bothering to look it up at the moment).

I thought it was pretty much implied. You attacked him over his maths and conclusions drawn from it, then voted him, I figured this was a fairly strong indication that you found his post and maths scummy.

Yep. There's that. He sounds like he's trying to decide which position to take, but hasn't figured out which one will benefit him most (aka. a scummy motive for his actions, one of the best tells out there).

True, but I don’t see why he’d say it. Why would you say anything like that if you were scum. I truly have no idea what to make of Infinis’ comment on this, I’m waiting on his later rewrite (his latest post isn’t good enough) to make judgement.

Ojanen pointed out that I misread the point I accused him of being a hypocrite over. I dropped that point entirely.

Fair enough, just that at the time of my initial post saying that your accusation was a ‘stretch’ this hadn’t happened, so some context is needed for why I said it again.

I don't think that wishy-washiness is the best phrase for it now that I think about it. More like playing both sides of the argument.

Fine, but you’ve accused both me and Infinis of being Wishi-Washy, do you still think I’m being wishi-washi with my posts or am I playing both sides?

Odd. Thought I mentioned that there was no hurry. Guess I forgot.

Yes, but you made one mistake, you addressed to it to me. I saw that and I couldn’t help but reply

@ Infinis

I don’t accept your reread, and I doubt anyone else will either. You’ve dismissed a lot of my arguments against Kai, and basically ignored Kais case against me, especially given your Korts vote. I would like to see some serious discussion from you regarding Kai vs Me. If you re-iterate what we’ve said, that’s fine, but we need an acknowledgement that you’ve considered what we’ve put forward. The only conclusion that you seem to have gleaned from it is that me and Kai aren’t scumbuddies. Considering the amount that has been posted, I would think that you could come up with some further observations than that.

@ All

We have a week till deadline. We need everyone talking. Considering prodding and replacements have gone out, failure to participate must be seen in a harsher light than it has up until now. We can’t have discussions between 3-4 people and expect to get a meaningful D1 lynch.

I'm off to bed, wrote all of this while reasonably drunk, so I might need to reread what I've wrote in the clear light of day Sorry for the wall of text, hopefully you can get something out of it.

[Kairyuu]

-twitch- -twitch-

Too . . many . . suspects!

I mean seriously, I'm suspicious of Infinis, Japles(did a reread and didn't like what I saw, more later), Josh (said he would be here soon almost a week ago), and millar (seriously, one post and then nothing?). It's bothering me to no end that I can't narrow it down any further.

@Infinis:

My initial reaction is that Sando and Kai are not in some kind of gambit.

Huh? Explain please. I don't understand what you're trying to say here.

As for any other conclusions, the waters are muddy and the fence is quite a good seat to try and sort things out from.

As town that is a terrible attitude. As scum that's a good way to get caught being noncommittal.

Unfortunately the jumping around of his vote seems noncommittal just as bad as the fence sitting he accuses me of.

Yup. I know. I'm not exactly at the top of my game here, and I'm really struggling to get good reads on most players.

Kai's case against Sando is good, not manipulative. Sando's defense and Kai's counterattack need a second reread.

So to my vote, three nothing posts in the past 8 days? Vote: korts

This is mildly contradictory. You state that the case against Sando is good, but you vote Korts for falling behind? I'm not saying you should vote for Sando, but if you're gonna vote someone, at least do it over a scumtell.

And finally, I have to recover from the term "subjective math". Wow just wow. You have to assume that the voter is town, since a scum knows his scum buddies and has no need to guess who is scum.

That's exactly the problem. If someone does that, then they are making an assumption about alignment that has nothing to do with play. The simple fact that the person makes an argument about math, you would assume them town, which is bad.

A townie has 6 possible town player votes out of the 8 players remaining
Therefore, 6/8 or 75% chance that the townie does not find scum on his first pick.

We eliminate this first voted player from the players selection pool, so we have 7 choices left. Therefore, 5/7 or ~=71% chance that the townie does not find scum with his second pick.

OK. I see where I went wrong, but you are neglecting the possibility that scum was hit the first time. Wouldn't you have to branch your numbers to 5/7 OR 6/7? giving you 71% OR 86% on the second shot? I don't take statistics, so I'm working off of logical deduction here, but that way makes more sense to me, and I don't know how I could combine the two possibilities.

I agree it was minor but this is day 1 and we have little to go on.

I absolutely despise this excuse. It's a total cop out for overreacting, and allows you to do a total about-face when things start heating up. You need to take responsibility for your own arguments.

@Ojanen:

Also, based on Kairyuu's timings of bringing his cases to the table, I wouldn't find the scumteam Kairyuu/Japles unlikely.

Elaborate please.

Kairyuu, what gave you a pretty decent read of Korts is his first posts?

He jumped straight into a dialogue with me, and his points were solid for the most part. That, and his posts read as if he were honestly looking out for the best interests of the town.

What is wrong with trying on and describing the subjective math perspective - "if he is town then how much sense do these actions and assumptions make?" I'd think that's a standard tool of thought to evaluate if someone's behaviour is consistent.

It forces you to make assumptions. I don't like making assumptions, because they open up all sorts of problems.

@all: I did a skim of the whole game up until now, and Japles did not come off the same way he did originally to me, so I reread him in detail, and noticed something interesting. He hasn't done crap except when threatened, and has actively lurked throughout the whole game, with only 1 or 2 actual content posts. This, combined with other people's points about his only responding to things that directly involve him, and my previous point about his crap reasoning on Sando, means that I would not be against his lynch right now.

So, my two top suspects are Infinis and Japles, and I would be perfectly agreeable to lynching either of them any time now. millar and Josh need to get in here and post ASAP, because the way it's going we're gonna get stuck going into D2 with no reads on either (hint hint: If there is a cop, getting a confirmation one way or another on one of them is a good idea if they don't get here before deadline/lynch happens).

@Mod: You forgot to change Bekkatha to millar in your votecount.

Thanks, fixed.

Preview Edit:

. . . wow. Getting started on a response to that one right now Sando.

[Kairyuu]

@Sando: It's all solid content. I like it. You should drunkpost more often.

The whole Japles/Kairyuu thing is disturbing me a hell of a lot. Japles actions throughout have been really odd, Japles agreement that he was ‘just trying to fit it’ seemed incredibly scummy, but it got pushed to the sidelines when the whole Kai vs Sando thing blew up. Japles then put me at L-1 with absolutely no reasoning, and when pushed on it provided none either.

When I questioned Kai on this, he was having none of it, absolutely refused to post anything regarding Japles.
Kairyuu wrote:

He gave a reason, but the reason was crap. I think he is suspicious, but not enough to warrant my vote or attention right now.

The reason Japles gave wasn’t crap, it was utter crap, there was absolutely nothing to it. Kai has been voting people left and right since then, but Japles has somehow avoided his attention, despite this obvious problem. It really does make very little sense, unless they’re scum together.

I addressed this in my last post before I saw this one. Japles has moved up dramatically on my scumlist after my reread, and I would be happy to lynch either him or Infinis today.

The other thing I wanted to bring up (but i think Infinis beat me to this one) is that I can’t work out the whole Korts and Kairyuu thing now. Kairyuu has attacked Josh Lyman and Bekkatha (now Millar13) for inactivity, yet completely ignores the pretty obvious active-lurking of Korts. Korts has been around and posting the odd small thing, with no substance, since his last substance post on the 2nd of April, where he voted me. Now I know that from reading Kai’s previous games and his reacting to Josh and Bekkatha, he has a pretty dim view of people lurking and is a strong advocate of it being a scumtell, yet he hasn’t even mentioned Korts lurking. Personally I feel we have some time to give to Korts to reply, but I’m very surprised that Kairyuu hasn’t brought up Korts yet has attacked the other 2 for lurking.

Korts is an active player, and was active in the beginning of the game. Enough so that I got a good, solid, town read on him. His 'active lurking' has been him apologizing for taking so long to catch up. As I have had a situation where RL has gotten to me badly enough that I was V/LA for 3 weeks once before, I can sympathize with him. There is no reason to disbelieve that he has merely had a rough time getting caught up like he has said. His posts have been non-game-related (since they reference why he's been away), and therefore can be taken at face value and viewed outside of the lense of alignment. I trust that Korts will be back with us and posting (or will request replacement if he cannot come back) soon.

On the subject of attacking people for lurking, I thought that Kai let Josh L off the hook incredibly easily. Josh L posted a 2 sentence explanation and Kai was happy to accept that immediately, no questions asked. I honestly can’t understand this from the point of view of either a townie or a scum, Kai, can you please explain why you didn’t push Josh any harder, maybe get him to provide some input when he can?

He said he was having some trouble in RL, and that he would be back soon after it was sorted out. This has nothing to do with alignment, and I therefore dropped my vote, because there was an out of game reason for the lurking. However, he never came back after saying he would, so my suspicion of him is beginning to increase again.

Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2009 10:13 am Post subject: 137

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Damn rugby, not only did that Tahs lose, but now Ojanen has competely beaten me to the post.

The whole Japles/Kairyuu thing is disturbing me a hell of a lot. Japles actions throughout have been really odd, Japles agreement that he was ‘just trying to fit it’ seemed incredibly scummy, but it got pushed to the sidelines when the whole Kai vs Sando thing blew up. Japles then put me at L-1 with absolutely no reasoning, and when pushed on it provided none either.

When I questioned Kai on this, he was having none of it, absolutely refused to post anything regarding Japles.
Kairyuu wrote:

He gave a reason, but the reason was crap. I think he is suspicious, but not enough to warrant my vote or attention right now.


The reason Japles gave wasn’t crap, it was utter crap, there was absolutely nothing to it. Kai has been voting people left and right since then, but Japles has somehow avoided his attention, despite this obvious problem. It really does make very little sense, unless they’re scum together.

The other thing I wanted to bring up (but i think Infinis beat me to this one) is that I can’t work out the whole Korts and Kairyuu thing now. Kairyuu has attacked Josh Lyman and Bekkatha (now Millar13) for inactivity, yet completely ignores the pretty obvious active-lurking of Korts. Korts has been around and posting the odd small thing, with no substance, since his last substance post on the 2nd of April, where he voted me. Now I know that from reading Kai’s previous games and his reacting to Josh and Bekkatha, he has a pretty dim view of people lurking and is a strong advocate of it being a scumtell, yet he hasn’t even mentioned Korts lurking. Personally I feel we have some time to give to Korts to reply, but I’m very surprised that Kairyuu hasn’t brought up Korts yet has attacked the other 2 for lurking.

On the subject of attacking people for lurking, I thought that Kai let Josh L off the hook incredibly easily. Josh L posted a 2 sentence explanation and Kai was happy to accept that immediately, no questions asked. I honestly can’t understand this from the point of view of either a townie or a scum, Kai, can you please explain why you didn’t push Josh any harder, maybe get him to provide some input when he can?





I also need to explain my stupid posting of meta gaming and poker. It was in relation to Kai’s defence of his gambit, and his claim that he never gambits as scum. Well, I play a bit of poker, and anyone with a passing knowledge of the game knows about bluffing. There are 2 good opportunities for people to bluff in poker, when noone knows your playstyle at the start of a game, and later once you’ve developed a playstyle and can make people believe you’re following it.

Now Kai is well aware, especially given that I brought it up as a part of ‘The Slip’, that anyone in this game can go back and look at his previous games, so the option of bluffing when noone knows his playstyle is denied to him, although

he did try to claim that he doesn’t have a defined playstyle at one point, something he later contradicts with his claim that he never gambits as scum, but you know…

That just leaves him the option of convincing us that he’s following his ‘normal’ playstyle while he does something else. This is the classic bluff, you play your 4-3 offsuit cards the same way as you normally play your A-K, convincing people that you have the A-K when in fact you have the 4-3. You can’t do this very often, but if you do it sparingly, it can be devastating, and almost impossible to pick.

What I’m trying to say is that you cannot just assume that because someone is playing the same way as they usually do, that they are the same alignment. It would be perfectly normal for a good player to set up a ‘normal’ persona for themselves so that they can bluff effectively as scum. If someone can’t act as their own ‘normal’ persona as scum, then they wont last long in this game.

Kai’s claim of ‘I never gambit as scum, therefore since I gambit’ed this game I’m not scum’, cannot be taken at face value. Firstly, he could be bluffing as stated above, and secondly, it wasn’t much of a gambit, he didn’t risk his partner unless his partner is either Korts or Chaos, although he claims this is the main reason he wouldn’t gambit.

Hence why I told people to take it with a grain of salt. The fact that this is a Newbie game kinda throws me off after the last one. My gameplay ethics tell me that as scum I should never gambit in a Newbie game, because it puts unnecessary pressure on my scumbuddy, whether I include him/her in the gambit or not. However, that contradicts with my view that I shouln't hold anything back just because it is a Newbie game, and causes all sorts of problems for me. So yeah, I won't stop you from thinking that I may have gambited as scum, but after the game, once alignments are no longer an issue, I will reaffirm that I hate gambiting as scum, and would probably never take the risk.

Bolded bit: If you read all of my games you'll notice that I rarely play the same way in different games unless I'm playing them concurrently and they are at similar stages of development. That's because I have a tendency to take what I did in one game, and change my play in the next based on that. That doesn't mean that there aren't certain things that stay the same (agressiveness as either alignment, a penchant for total confidence in my reads, conservative scum play, etc.), but the tells I use, the way that I apply them, and the general strategy that I employ, are often different, and I have no set method of play yet.

All in all, I’ve changed my mind from Kai/Chaos to Kai/Japles, and the more I look at it, the more I think Japles is scum, and Kai just refusing to get drawn into a comment on Japles seems really dodgy as well. I’m open to comments on either at the moment, Ojanen certainly seems to be set of Japles more than Kai, that’s ok with me, although I would like to hear more from other people.

So does that mean that you'd like to lynch Japles, and then me tomorrow if he flips scum? I think he'll flip scum, but I'm a bit wary of the Kairyuu lynch for tomorrow. I really don't think he's scum.

I thought it was pretty much implied. You attacked him over his maths and conclusions drawn from it, then voted him, I figured this was a fairly strong indication that you found his post and maths scummy.

I didn't like the math, but I didn't accuse him of using it to make me look scummy. I voted him for the points that I've mentioned, nothing more.

True, but I don’t see why he’d say it. Why would you say anything like that if you were scum.

To buy yourself time before you have to take a side.

Fine, but you’ve accused both me and Infinis of being Wishi-Washy, do you still think I’m being wishi-washi with my posts or am I playing both sides?

At the moment, neither. Now that you aren't being accused anymore you are making quite decent arguments, and are being very direct about it.

We have a week till deadline. We need everyone talking. Considering prodding and replacements have gone out, failure to participate must be seen in a harsher light than it has up until now. We can’t have discussions between 3-4 people and expect to get a meaningful D1 lynch.

QFT. If we let it get to a day or two before deadline, then there is a very much reduced likelyhood that we can coordinate properly and actually get a lynch. People need to talk NOW!

[Ojanen]

Also, based on Kairyuu's timings of bringing his cases to the table, I wouldn't find the scumteam Kairyuu/Japles unlikely.

Elaborate please.

You asked for it, so here comes elaboration of timing and drawing suspicion to other directions.

Japles gets in trouble beginning from his first post. In second page he has already three people questioning him (Chaos, Sando, myself), perhaps most prominently Sando. He gets his second vote post 27. You shift your suspicion to Chaos serious post 28 (later you explain this as the part of the gambit).
Japles gets another FoS, posts 41 and 46 are attacking him.
Post 52 is your reveal gambit - attack Sando post. It is also not unreasonable to say that the gambit was terminated earlyish, players' inputs were missing, not much had developed out of the Chaos case etc. At the end of that post you put Japles on top of your "likely townie" list. I raised an eyebrow to that at the time but then thought it was a byproduct of you being convinced of Sando's guiltiness.
Japles gets mostly forgotten after that, the drama is about Sando and Kai, some Chaos suspicions, passing mentionings of Japles suspicions from Sando.
Enter Japles. Very scummy post (82). FoSses Sando for illogical reason related to Sando suspecting him.
Next post (83), Kairyuu visits the scene, ignores Japles' stuff that looks to me now a hundred times odder than Sando's and says to Sando:

-twitch-

Ya know, I like long post as much as the next guy, but this is rather excessive. I'll respond later tonight or tomorrow, depending on if/when I can get my homework done.

A quick note though. Your last two posts are complete misreps of everything I said. Why exactly haven't you been lynched yet?

Post 85, Japles votes Sando to L-1 with a rubbish reason.
Gets questioned and attacked for it and that is the main issue for a while. I say I won't hammer in that situation yet, Kairyuu unvotes.
Kairyuu comes back post 102. Withdraws suspicion of Sando, attacks/votes lurkers.
Attacks Infinis. Japles is getting buried again. Kairyuu is questioned about opinion on Japles by me and Sando.

His answers:

Japles gave a reason, but the reason was crap. I think he is suspicious, but not enough to warrant my vote or attention right now.

Japles isn't interesting to me right now. He is scummy, yes, but not as much so as Infinis, so I am focusing on the scummier target. It's just the way I do things.

So yes, I'd say the way you've been doing stuff is pretty convenient for Japles, Kai. You could say it's almost too convenient, but then on the other hand one of the statements you've made quite strongly of your own meta while defending the gambit is that you like to keep the scumgroup intact as long as reasonably possible in a game.

So does that mean that you'd like to lynch Japles, and then me tomorrow if he flips scum? I think he'll flip scum, but I'm a bit wary of the Kairyuu lynch for tomorrow. I really don't think he's scum.

All in all, I’ve changed my mind from Kai/Chaos to Kai/Japles, and the more I look at it, the more I think Japles is scum, and Kai just refusing to get drawn into a comment on Japles seems really dodgy as well. I’m open to comments on either at the moment, Ojanen certainly seems to be set of Japles more than Kai, that’s ok with me, although I would like to hear more from other people.

I actually deliberated voting Kai, too.
I'm open to comments too, but I certainly want content from Japles before even considering of changing my vote.

Btw, seems it's not the standard preference, but I really don't mind the wall-of-text posts. Actually I've kind of liked them in this game. They feel like good sturdy steaks.

[Kairyuu]

@Ojanen: Wow. Reading through that, I have no defense. I ignored Japles because I was preoccupied with my gambit, then Sando, then Infinis, and I completely missed how convenient my timing was. I'm impressed.

Oh well. I chalk it up to coincidence, since it wasn't any conscious effort on my part, and I know I'm not scum. Vote me if you'd like though, you found a good scumtell (though a Japles or Infinis lynch is much better in my opinion).

[Sando]

@Ojanen: Wow. Reading through that, I have no defense. I ignored Japles because I was preoccupied with my gambit, then Sando, then Infinis, and I completely missed how convenient my timing was. I'm impressed.

Oh well. I chalk it up to coincidence, since it wasn't any conscious effort on my part, and I know I'm not scum. Vote me if you'd like though, you found a good scumtell (though a Japles or Infinis lynch is much better in my opinion).

To be fair, my suspicion of Kai as scum had been going steadily downhill, the post where I asked the very direct questions was really my last effort if nothing came up. Then when Kai refused to talk about Japles, who I think has been incredibly scummy, and went after others, my suspicions ratcheted up a notch.

I'm going to

unvote, Vote: Japles

.

I'm doing this because outside of the link to Japles, I'm no longer all that sure on Kai. Considering this, if Japles turns town, which i doubt, but if he does, I at least will think much more townie of Kai. If he turns Scum, then I'm going to have to be really convinced not to lynch Kai. But either way, we learn something.

If we were to lynch Kai, and he turned scum, then we've linked him to Japles and can lynch Japles. But if Kai turns town, then we haven't learned anything about the scum.

I think what I'm basically blabbering about is what I think Korts said earlier, links tend to go 1 way. I think the link ties Kai to Japles, not the other way round.

Am I making sense? I'm now hang-over posting instead of drunk posting

On to Kai's response, I'll stop rambling now

He said he was having some trouble in RL, and that he would be back soon after it was sorted out. This has nothing to do with alignment, and I therefore dropped my vote, because there was an out of game reason for the lurking. However, he never came back after saying he would, so my suspicion of him is beginning to increase again.

Yep, fair enough, he seems to be in the same boat as Korts. The difference I see is that Korts has promised a re-read and comments, Josh hasn't as far as i know. It seems that you don't need to push Korts as much as Josh, Korts realises his responsibilities and will get to them when he can, Josh is a newbie along with us and might not realise it.

So does that mean that you'd like to lynch Japles, and then me tomorrow if he flips scum? I think he'll flip scum, but I'm a bit wary of the Kairyuu lynch for tomorrow. I really don't think he's scum.

You'll certainly be my top suspect, yes.

To buy yourself time before you have to take a side.

Yeah, but there's been some lurking going on, it would have been much safer for a scum to 'hide out' till they could see which way the wind was blowing. I think it could be a mistake that either side makes, especially in a newbie game. Although i do think the timing of the mistake could be indicative of scum, given that you're pushing him to provide a response. I'll have to reread this stuff a few times and think about it.

I mean seriously, I'm suspicious of Infinis, Japles(did a reread and didn't like what I saw, more later), Josh (said he would be here soon almost a week ago), and millar (seriously, one post and then nothing?). It's bothering me to no end that I can't narrow it down any further.

All of these are valid now, I've reread your post before you replied to me, regarding Infinis, and considering what I've already said, I agree that Infinis seems scummy, but I still think you, and certainly Japles, seem more scummy. I've asked for him to actually comment on what has happened further, as have you, so we'll see what comes out of that. And I agree that the lurking from Josh/Millar is bad times. Millar I was giving some leeway as a replacement, he has a lot to read through, but with a week to go and him being in here for a while, we can't afford to wait much longer.

[Sando]

@Sando: It's all solid content. I like it. You should drunkpost more often.

Yeah on waking, I'm actually pretty happy with that I'm learning, that's for sure.

@Ojanen: Wow. Reading through that, I have no defense. I ignored Japles because I was preoccupied with my gambit, then Sando, then Infinis, and I completely missed how convenient my timing was. I'm impressed.

Yeah well done Ojanen, your post illustrated the point perfectly.

[Kairyuu]

@Sando:

I'm doing this because outside of the link to Japles, I'm no longer all that sure on Kai. Considering this, if Japles turns town, which i doubt, but if he does, I at least will think much more townie of Kai. If he turns Scum, then I'm going to have to be really convinced not to lynch Kai. But either way, we learn something.

If we were to lynch Kai, and he turned scum, then we've linked him to Japles and can lynch Japles. But if Kai turns town, then we haven't learned anything about the scum.

I think what I'm basically blabbering about is what I think Korts said earlier, links tend to go 1 way. I think the link ties Kai to Japles, not the other way round.

Sounds about right. I'll just have to convince you to help me lynch Infinis then, now won't I?

Only way I can see not having to argue with you is if we get lucky and Infinis is a scum roleblocker, because then if we have the right setup I can submit to the lynch in full confidence of a town win.

Yep, fair enough, he seems to be in the same boat as Korts. The difference I see is that Korts has promised a re-read and comments, Josh hasn't as far as i know. It seems that you don't need to push Korts as much as Josh, Korts realises his responsibilities and will get to them when he can, Josh is a newbie along with us and might not realise it.

Sounds about right. I think Josh may have forgotten about us though, and may need a replacement soon.

[Ojanen]

Thanks guys, maybe I'm learning too.

Kai's tone seems quite mild, but if Japles is scum and it's all a coincidence then I must say it's a hell of a coincidence.

Sando, yeah, you're absolutely right about the direction of the Japles/Kai link, and Japles is scummier than Kai as a standalone. I'm happy with my vote.

Sounds about right. I'll just have to convince you to help me lynch Infinis then, now won't I?

Only way I can see not having to argue with you is if we get lucky and Infinis is a scum roleblocker, because then if we have the right setup I can submit to the lynch in full confidence of a town win.

I saw the game breaking plan in the 750, but I don't understand this.
Did you mean to write Japles instead of Infinis to the second paragraph?

[Kairyuu]

@Ojanen:

Kai's tone seems quite mild, but if Japles is scum and it's all a coincidence then I must say it's a hell of a coincidence.

Yup. Absolutely right there. My oversight may yet cost me my first legitimate pro-town lynch (I don't count the one where I replaced in at L-2 and wasn't able to swing the wagon off).

I saw the game breaking plan in the 750, but I don't understand this.

661 is where I first saw it used/helped with it, and it worked there. 750 was a failed attempt.

Did you mean to write Japles instead of Infinis to the second paragraph?

Yup. Typo caused by mention of Infinis in the previous paragraph probably.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

1 Week to Deadline

Vote Count

Sando - 2 (Chaos40, Korts)

Infinis - 1 (Kairyuu)
Korts - 1 (Infinis)
Japles - 2 (Ojanen, Sando)

Not Voting - 3 (Japles, Josh Lyman, Millar13)

5 to Lynch

[millar13]

From what I gather Kairyuu seems to be talking some sense. Other than that, I don't really know

[Korts]

Catching up still.

Sando's massive multi-posting on page 3 in reaction to Kairyuu and the building pressure seems like desperation, although I can't yet decide whether he's overreacting town or panicky scum.

I do agree with him, though, that he wasn't OMGUSing Kairyuu. OMGUS occurs when the sole reason for voting is out of spite because your target voted you--and that never occurs in action, with any halfway competent players.

Kairyuu is town. His layered gambit(s) look like a not to thoroughly thought out scumhunting plan rather than a post-slip explanation. I'm not comfortable with Sando's absolute certainty that Kai is scum.

With that, I'm up to page 4. I'll keep reading.