Mini 749 - Antarctic Mafia [Game Over]

[JereIC]

Jere:

As described before:

1 SK V 1 Town V 1 scum
=town win unless SK really likes scum or scum really likes sk OR they decide to go for a happily ever after ending, which is kind of cool, actually.
So, if lylo with a kill ability other than mafia, town wins/draws always.

Also, we lynch scum, I don't really see the harm in shooting since the benefit outweighs the risk, but whatever.

That's assuming you get exposed as the SK before Day 4. If you aren't exposed, then you could just help the townie lynch the scum, kill the townie in endgame, and cackle maniacally into the night, gloating all along about how you have an opposible thumb and we don't.

Of course, chances are pretty low that you'll survive all the way to Day 4 having to be the vig, but still, the prisoner's dillema situation isn't exactly applicable here.

saying we shouldn't use him is like saying we should vote no lynch. {snip} (assuming he's not an SK)

I strongly disagree; this is a lot different than a no lynch. SKs are required to attempt to kill. By having him not kill tonight, we know if he is SK or Vig. That's why I believe having him not shoot tonight is the optimal play. I will have to complete my scenario tree and see something major for me to change my point of view. (I won't post it unless I find something of major interest or someone requests it.)

I'm confused. In 545 you present a case that no matter what happens, having LK kill tonight is more likely to hurt town than help. My counter argument is that having him follow town's kill order is like having a second lynch. Where does the risk of him being an SK fit in? Or are you abandoning the argument you made in 545? Also, isn't that Fishy's argument?

If you don't visit the bad neighborhoods, the bad neighborhoods are going to visit you.

DraketheFake - 1 (FishytheFish)
JereIC - 1 (Netlava)
FishytheFish - 1 (Light-kun)
Light-kun - 1 (DraketheFake)

Not Voting - 5 (Jazzmyn, Nuwen, JereIC, Looker, HowardRoark)

9 alive, 5 to lynch

-Mod

(Vote Count accurate as of Post 554)

[Fishythefish]

Do you really believe a SK would go against the town's orders?

Where do you get from my posts that I think that?

You say that directing L-k's kills tests his claim. This is only true if L-k the SK can be distinguished from L-k the vig by directing his kills. The relevance is that if directing L-k's kills is not helpful in this regard, it is less important.

The main reason I changed my mind was because I think there's a fair chance that, if L-k is SK, he won't be able to follow our orders to no kill.

Is there some reason why you didn't post your rationale at the time?

By the way, a question to any experienced players: in a normal game, how common is it for a serial killer to be able to no kill? This is obviously relevant to testing L-k's claim.
Incidentally, on reflection I no longer support letting L-k choose his own kill. The benefits are marginal, and if L-k is the SK, his interests may not align with ours, particularly over the matter of whether or not he should be shooting at all.

My rationale is all but explicitly stated by the post in question. I wonder whether L-k would be able to no kill as the SK, and then say that I have changed my mind because L-k's motives might differ from ours over whether to shoot.

OK, you may think my position was totally wrong, I'm not too bothered about that. But how could a loose cannon of a vig/SK benefit the scum?

I don’t imagine it would, any more than a loose cannon LK here will benefit the town. I’m afraid I don’t understand your point or why you’re asking me the question.

My point is that if there is no reason for scum to take the position I took, it is not a scummy position. Weird =\= scummy.

I think it’s more accurate to say that

everyone

who was active in the game at the time disagreed with your position, and I seem to recall that there was also some suggestion that your position was scummy. In addition to Howard’s post to which you refer, Nuwen FoS’ed you for it in her post 392 and Drake’s 399 sounds pretty accusatory as well.

You are correct about the suggestions that my position was scummy, certainly in the case of Nuwen's post. However, the matter had not been mentioned in a few pages, and the pressure on me about this matter was minimal.

Do you think my voting pattern is more scummy than the other two players?

Yes.

Why?

---

LK - I think Fishy is becoming more scummy by default. He hasn't said anything to hang himself, but his defense hasn't been good, and he had done a poor job explaining why he changed his mind from being against ordering your kills to being for it. I want to see how he responds to Nuwen's post that I pointed out before deciding whether or not to vote for him. On a related note, I think DtF is acting oddly. Sometimes he's saying that the three of us are townies caught up in a flawed voting pattern analysis, other times he seems to be building cases against me and Fishy.

Re: the plan I talked about - the reason I brought it up is I anticipated somebody suggesting it, and was actually putting a bit of effort into coming up with counter arguments. When no one did, I really was surprised and confused.

This is a horrible post. I am “becoming more scummy by default”? What does this even mean? My defence of what hasn’t been good? It is very unclear why you find me scummy. I don’t think that the claim that I haven’t explained why I changed my mind is a reasonable one, as discussed above. All in all, it looks like you want to say that you are suspicious of me without providing any actual reasons.
Being surprised and confused about no-one bringing up this plan does not explain why you brought it up.

---

I think that L-k should not kill tonight, regardless of the alignment of the lynchee- firstly because another kill would not be very beneficial to the town (kills are not very helpful when there are an even number of people in the game), and secondly because this helps us find out whether he is a vig or a SK.

---

Given that many players in the game will be penguins, and there are only so many species of penguin, I think it would be (slightly) beneficial for the town if claims consisted of species as well as role. There would be a possibility of species counterclaim, since it seems fair to assume that each role has a unique species. The benefit is small, but I can see no disadvantage.

[Looker]

reading, post coming later on - content later later on

[DraketheFake]

Given that many players in the game will be penguins, and there are only so many species of penguin, I think it would be (slightly) beneficial for the town if claims consisted of species as well as role. There would be a possibility of species counterclaim, since it seems fair to assume that each role has a unique species. The benefit is small, but I can see no disadvantage.

This is a good idea. L-k, what is your species?

[HowardRoark]

I'm confused. In 545 you present a case that no matter what happens, having LK kill tonight is more likely to hurt town than help.

Correct.

My counter argument is that having him follow town's kill order is like having a second lynch.

Yes it was. However, if he kills town tonight that is no better than a mislynch and possibly worse, seeing as how it is detrimental with probably less information to analyze. Therefore, IMHO, not a great counter.

Where does the risk of him being an SK fit in?

You acknowledged the possibility of him being a SK in 546 . . . which is a valid point against your own scenario. The validity of the "SK or Vig" question is about alignment. I don't want the win or loss of the town to hinge on that unknown.

Or are you abandoning the argument you made in 545?

How am I abandoning my argument by re-enforcing it? I statistically showed that it was dangerous for him to shoot tonight. I furthered it by making the case that not shooting proves that he is not a SK.

Also, isn't that Fishy's argument?

Yes, Fishythefish was thinking along the same lines. What's your point?

Overall, your response is misrepresentation of my "no shoot" case. Other than "having a second lynch" is there some reason that you believe that it would be beneficial for the town to direct Light-kun to shoot tonight? Some of us have reservations (based on his attitude) that he will even follow our instructions. If he is truly town aligned, he will obey a no shoot order, thus proving himself and keeping the risk/reward to our advantage.

----------

I find Fishythefish's idea of species claiming when role claiming interesting. I am not sure how much we can get out of it, but it could prove to be useful. So, along with that, I echo DraketheFake's prompt toward Light-kun.

@Light-kun: What is your species?

[Light-kun]

Given that many players in the game will be penguins, and there are only so many species of penguin, I think it would be (slightly) beneficial for the town if claims consisted of species as well as role. There would be a possibility of species counterclaim, since it seems fair to assume that each role has a unique species. The benefit is small, but I can see no disadvantage.

This is a good idea. L-k, what is your species?

Really? Of all the creatures of the ocean you can't even guess?

*Smiles*
Serial killer or vigilante, it makes perfect sense:

I'm the Killer Whale. Now...I demand my flavor, if I'm killed/lynched, be that I swim away dammit! I can't die by a bunch of penguins and whatever the hell the mafia is.

reading, post coming later on - content later later on

Hallowed awesome, Looker's going to post content? Oh wait, I bet it's HIS definition of content. Nevermind.

[DraketheFake]

Can we go ahead and lynch Light-kun yet?

DDD was a brilliant choice, by the way.

[JereIC]

Lk's the killer whale, who killed DDD, who was found dead with a single red dot on his chest. If you're not going to bother keeping your lies straight, don't bother wasting our time with them.

Vote: Light-kun

[Fishythefish]

Indeed. A good part of my reason for wanting species claim was to see whether or not L-k claimed human (or at least something which can hold a gun), which seems his likely species. I now believe L-k is a serial killer.
Whether this makes him the automatic lynch or not is different.

Some maths assuming 3 mafia, random lynches, random kills, no double kills, no prs:
Lynch L-k leaves us 4-3. Probability of winning 5.71% (=3/7*2/5*1/3 to kill scum each day).

If we don't lynch L-k:
35.7% chance of an instant loss with three townie kills by tomorrow.

53.6% chance of two townie and one scum kill by tomorrow. Here, the situation would be 3-1-2. Lynching L-k would be a loss. From here:
- 60% chance we lynch/shoot one scum and one townie. This leaves 1-1-1 or 2-0-1 depending on the scum's choice of kill. Presumably they go for the latter, giving us a 33% chance of a win. 1-1-1 is a 50% win for the scum, rather than a 67% win.
- 30% chance we lynch/shoot two townies, for a loss.
- 10% chance we kill two scum and win.

10.7% chance we kill two scum by tomorrow, leaving the situation at 4-1-1. Here, if we don't lynch L-k (which is much the better option):
- 60% chance we lynch/shoot two townies and end 2-0-1 with 33%.
- 40% chance we lynch/shoot the scum and win.

Therefore overall odds of winning are:
(0.536*0.6*0.33+0.536*0.1+0.107*0.6*0.33+0.107*0.4) = 22.5%, which is a huge improvement.

According to these calculations, lynching L-k will

never

be right until the scum are gone, which is rather surprising. Perhaps my maths is wrong?

It is possible we have some serious PRs who are going to start finding scum soon. This seriously improves our odds if we lynch L-k, and has less effect on the other scenario. However, if my maths is right I think that the improvement from not lynching L-k in the random scenario is sufficient to justify leaving him alive.

[JereIC]

A good part of my reason for wanting species claim was to see whether or not L-k claimed human (or at least something which can hold a gun), which seems his likely species.

HR, DtF, were you pushing LK to claim species for the same reason?

Unvote

while I give Fishy's post some thought.

[Light-kun]

Fishy's scum, and I doubt flavor by the mod can be used to verify a claim one way or the other. Honestly, if you feel like killing me, go ahead. Flavor is one thing I can't defend against. (And for God's sake, we're up against a PENGUIN MAFIA, how much sense do you expect this game to make?)

[Fishythefish]

Why do you think I am scum?

[DraketheFake]

HR, DtF, were you pushing LK to claim species for the same reason?

Yes. I wanted to see if his species claim would align with his kill method, or if he'd try and claim something he wasn't so we could get a counter-claim.

I don't think we really want to be monkeying with the set-up the way you are, Fishy. For all you know there's only 2 scum, or there are two scum groups, and so on and so forth. When you have a chance to lynch scum I think you do it. We're obviously not going to be able to be certain that L-k will follow our commands now, and so I'd rather charge the game to extraordinary town play from here on out than hope that we lynch correctly tonight and that the kills don't go as planned from here on out.

But that's just me.

[Fishythefish]

Sure. I got a little carried away there, and the conclusion that we should definitely not lynch L-k is too strong. It does illustrate that killing a known SK is not automatically good, particularly if we have other strong suspects and/or we think he is going to shoot scum.

[HowardRoark]

mod: Netlava asked for a second Nuwen prod in 542, but I see no acknowledgment of it. Has it been sent out? Thank you.

Sorry for not acknowledging it, but I was in the process of replacing Nuwen. Still searching. Tell all your friends.

@JereIC: Any comments on my post 554?

HR, DtF, were you pushing LK to claim species for the same reason?

(bold added to the quote for response emphasis)

I find Fishythefish's idea of species claiming when role claiming interesting.

I am not sure how much we can get out of it, but it could prove to be useful.

I believe that lynching Light-kun is

not

the lynch option for today. That's why I advocate the no kill order to better determine his alignment.

For all you know there's only 2 scum, or there are two scum groups, and so on and so forth.

I there are only two scum, then Light-kun not shooting only further supports my stance based on percentages. If there are two scum groups and we still have two deaths tonight, then I believe that lynching Light-kun tomorrow for shooting against our request is not a bad lynch; as I see it, he hasn't been a strong asset for the town.

[Fishythefish]

I believe that lynching Light-kun is

not

the lynch option for today. That's why I advocate the no kill order to better determine his alignment.

L-k's species claim is very likely false. L-k is therefore very likely SK. This means that the argument that we should not lynch L-k in order to find out his alignment is no longer relevant.

[JereIC]

@JereIC: Any comments on my post 554?

HR, DtF, were you pushing LK to claim species for the same reason?

(bold added to the quote for response emphasis)

I find Fishythefish's idea of species claiming when role claiming interesting.

I am not sure how much we can get out of it, but it could prove to be useful.

I saw that, but "interesting" is kind of vague and uncommitted. Were you just agreeing with DtF and Fishy for the sake of blending in?

[HowardRoark]

L-k's species claim is very likely false. L-k is therefore very likely SK. This means that the argument that we should not lynch L-k in order to find out his alignment is no longer relevant.

I'm still digesting the species claim, so I can't commit to a SK/Vig determination from that alone. I never stated that not lynching him is the way to determine his alignment. (Obviously, lynching him would be proof.) My argument has been that him not killing tonight is a better determining factor.

I saw that, but "interesting" is kind of vague and uncommitted. Were you just agreeing with DtF and Fishy for the sake of blending in?

Maybe because it was made in uncertainty (please refer to bolded portion again). Perhaps you'd like to make another weak argument based on my uncertainty of Fishythefish's statement that Light-kun's species claim is horse crap. "blending in" . . . really? I suppose that when I voted for freeko I was also attempting to be "blending in" as well. That is weak. Also, you quoted me asking for a response to my post 554, but you didn't provide any comments. I'd really like to hear it.

[Jazzmyn]

I have a little bit of catching up to do in all of my games as I have been crazy busy in real life these past two days, but on the Killer Whale claim, it seems as though the only basis for thinking that it is "very likely false" is based on flavour, and based on the assumption that a vig or SK would be human rather than a denizen of the Antarctic ocean.

I don't think that we can legitimately make those assumptions, and here's why: one of our fellow townies flipped krill. Krill is a crustacean (not a species of penguin) and one of the main staples of the penguin diet in the Antarctic. So, based on flavour, this would mean that all of us penguins are cannibals, eating our fellow townies who are krill.

I sincerely doubt that the flavour is meant to be taken literally, because it would mean that we are cannibalizing fellow townies, but that's the cold, hard fact of the flips we have so far.

In the result, I don't think it's a good idea to use flavour as the sole basis for disbelieving LK's species claim. If the moderator is using an Antarctic food chain type of thing for flavour, the Killer Whale claim makes sense for a vig/sk, but it doesn't make much sense that we have townie krill. Yet, we do.

Regards,
Jazz

[Fishythefish]

Jazz-

On the opposite side of the town was

Debonair Danny DiPietro

, laying on his back. There was a red circle on the white of his coat in the center of his chest; the snow surrounding it also full of blood.

DDD was shot. This is a pretty strong flavour argument- killer whales simply do not shoot people. I suppose it is possible that the mod decided the mafia kill method would be in keeping with the situation, but the vig's would not. However, it seems fairly unlikely.

Well, either way, I still support not lynching L-k today, as long as he agrees not to kill tonight (or whatever else we say- but to test his claim no kill looks much the most sensible).

Jere, I criticised a post of yours in 551. Comments?

[Netlava]

I don't think the flavor means anything. I'm still leaning SK on LK.

- Just saying something "specifically applies" isn't a defense.

I meant that the present tense isn't a general case. So your comment about me using the present tense doesn't mean anything.

- And no, the lying thing was part of me being a jackass yesterday.

So you lied when you accused me of lying?

Lk's the killer whale, who killed DDD, who was found dead with a single red dot on his chest. If you're not going to bother keeping your lies straight, don't bother wasting our time with them.

Do you think LK is scum or SK?

[Light-kun]

I believe that lynching Light-kun is

not

the lynch option for today. That's why I advocate the no kill order to better determine his alignment.

L-k's species claim is very likely false. L-k is therefore very likely SK. This means that the argument that we should not lynch L-k in order to find out his alignment is no longer relevant.

The fact that the only remotely credible case is built entirely on a scum tactic, to outguess the mod (in terms of flavor, not setup), should be reason enough to lynch you. I want your lynch so much so that, if asked, I would shoot myself to have my way. It's selfish, I know, but I have yet to see anything from you that would credit you with being town.

[Fishythefish]

Open your eyes! You haven't made an argument against me for pages. The arguments you made previously I have responded to, with no comment from you. The only new thing is that I caught you in what looks like a lie- and your accusation that this is a scum tactic simply cannot stand up without evidence.
You want me lynched. Please state your reasons.

Once more: if you are not lynched today, do you agree to shoot as the town directs you?

[JereIC]

I saw that, but "interesting" is kind of vague and uncommitted. Were you just agreeing with DtF and Fishy for the sake of blending in?

Maybe because it was made in uncertainty (please refer to bolded portion again). Perhaps you'd like to make another weak argument based on my uncertainty of Fishythefish's statement that Light-kun's species claim is horse crap. "blending in" . . . really? I suppose that when I voted for freeko I was also attempting to be "blending in" as well. That is weak.

Ok, so let’s take that as a denial of the argument that you were just blending in. Then is it correct to say that you saw some possible advantage, despite the uncertainty, to having LK claim a species?

Overall, your response is misrepresentation of my "no shoot" case. Other than "having a second lynch" is there some reason that you believe that it would be beneficial for the town to direct Light-kun to shoot tonight? Some of us have reservations (based on his attitude) that he will even follow our instructions. If he is truly town aligned, he will obey a no shoot order, thus proving himself and keeping the risk/reward to our advantage.

Telling him to not shoot is a waste of time. If he doesn’t follow directions, then we have him killing somebody on his own initiative, which could mean he’s an SK, or it could mean he’s a vig who thinks he’s smarter than us. If he does follow directions, he might be a vig (who will now be of very limited use to us) or he might be an SK who doesn’t have to kill every night, or who actually was smarter than us and picked the same target as the doc. The test you propose just doesn’t tell us anything. On the other hand, if we have the town come to an agreement on who to kill, then if LK doesn’t follow directions it’s basically as if we had used your test. If he does follow directions, then we have all the advantages of a second lynch, including information about who advocated for the kill.

This is a horrible post. I am “becoming more scummy by default”? What does this even mean? My defence of what hasn’t been good? It is very unclear why you find me scummy. I don’t think that the claim that I haven’t explained why I changed my mind is a reasonable one, as discussed above. All in all, it looks like you want to say that you are suspicious of me without providing any actual reasons.
Being surprised and confused about no-one bringing up this plan does not explain why you brought it up.

Blame LK. He asked my opinion of you, and I wanted to focus on other stuff, so I just gave him my quick thoughts without spending a lot of time on the analysis. “More scummy by default” is meant to say that other people have decent cases against you, and you haven’t defended yourself against them well. Your defense of yourself hasn’t been good. If I vote for you at a later date, I will make it clear why.

Also, how’d it take you five posts to realize I hadn’t responded to this?

I meant that the present tense isn't a general case. So your comment about me using the present tense doesn't mean anything.

Ok, if you had to state a rule for when the present tense is scummy, what would that rule be?

So you lied when you accused me of lying?

No, I just didn’t consider the possibility that I misunderstood what you were saying. But there is still an inconsistency that you haven’t explained yet.

Do you think LK is scum or SK?

All I know is that post 555 appears to be an incredible lie. I don't believe that LK is a killer whale with a gun to shoot people tucked under his blubber.

[HowardRoark]

Then is it correct to say that you saw some possible advantage, despite the uncertainty, to having LK claim a species?

(I dislike the phrasing of this question.) No, I did not see an advantage to it when it was first asked. I figured that Fishythefish had a motive to pose the question. Obviously, revealing that motive when asking it would have ruined the usefulness. Now that he has revealed it, I think it was an interesting tactic. I am still uncertain of its usefulness because this game cannot be treated as 100% realistic. Seeing freeko socializing amongst us as a krill would have tipped off us penguins that he was not exactly the same as us (i.e. a power role). Assuming the scum are a beast of a different nature, if we were trying to analyze this as 100% realistic, we would also be able to pick out the predators very easily.

Telling him to not shoot is a waste of time.

We shall have to agree to disagree. Either way, he must follow the town's wishes tonight (who to shoot or not to shoot) or be facing serious heat tomorrow.