Newbie 762 - OhGodMyVillage - Game Over

[xRECKONERx]

Yeah. Odd for the scum not to go for the "confirmed" cop, though. Then get lucky on the doc.

Maybe... maybe the doc contacted the "cop" Santos and that's how they knew?

[Santos]

I got no result. I sent in to investigate Sirdanilot and received nothing about his allegiance. Since they found the doctor, we now know that the roleblocker stopped me. How they got so lucky amazes me.

Since there are no roles left to discuss, i believe we should lynch the scummiest looking person from day one. But i have no idea where to start.

[Scien]

One place to start would be Mastin's chief suspicion. There would at least be some motive for them to remove such a vocal advisory. However today, like yesterday, I don't really understand the case against them.

Oh and yes, I was fishing for Santos to say something other than no result. He passed. Unfortunately what that really means is his premature claim has cost us our Cop, but no sense crying over spilled milk.

They had a role blocker. They knew the doc would protect Santos most likely. They just blocked him and hit someone else in hopes of hitting the doc. Lucky freggin scum.

And before I go to bed:

Maybe... maybe the doc contacted the "cop" Santos and that's how they knew?

I don't understand this. What do you mean contacted? That would be expressly against the rules. I doubt it happened. You seem to be stretching far there. It's not uncommon for scum to hit the most pro-town sounding guy, and Mastin had several people saying that they got pro-town vibes from him.

[Santos]

i had those vibes about you. what does that tell you?

[Santos]

I just went over the first few pages again...anyone want to tell me what they think NOW before I post my suspicions?

[Papa Zito]

Holy crap. I miss some time and everything goes to hell.

I'm going to re-read the thread with two confirmed townies in mind and come back with my thoughts.

[Henrz]

I think Santos is no longer suspicious, if he is the cop no one has counterclaimed and if they don't now... It's a bad idea. And why did you investigate Danilot? Surely there were more pressing suspicions on others, such as myself? And about the Mastin lynch, it was obvious that Mastin would be the targeted by the Mafia, seeing as he is contributing a lot to Scum finds and could easily unearth one of them with his techniques.

[Papa Zito]

Before I'm done re-reading the thread, I'd like to pose a question to everybody:

Why are we so quick to believe Santos?

With a confirmed doctor, we have two possible setups left:

- 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Sane Cop, 1 Doctor, 5 Townies.
- 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Doctor, 6 Townies.

The second one worries me. Santos could be scum, and confident that nobody will counterclaim because he knows there's no cop. Couldn't the "aww shucks guys I got roleblocked" just be an excuse he can ride all the way to the endgame? Or am I missing something here?

[Santos]

Papa Zito has a point. I could be bluffing. However, if I were scum, wouldn't I want to kill someone who was against me yesterday, say, Sirdanilot?

Also, do you think I am trying to clear Sirdanilot by saying I am a cop and tried to confirm a scum partner? Or that I am a scum claiming a cop and chose to 'fake' investigate Sirdanilot who is a townie?

I think you need to ask yourselves those questions too.

[Scien]

Why are we so quick to believe Santos?

I'm not. I still have doubts. But here is the game as I saw it yesterday.

On the scum team, there is either a role blocker or there is not.
Roleblocker:
Scum know that possible role assignments fall into 7 townies, or 5 townies/cop/doc. Claiming cop in this situation is scarey, either no one is around to counter claim, or no matter what you claim, there is a counter.

Two vanilla scum:
Scum know that there is either a cop or a doc. But there definitely is one. Any claim might have a counter, or might not.

Seems kind of a risky play to claim with so little pressure and so early. However they might have tried it. It would allow a scum to pass through night 1 and possibly night 2 unscathed.

As for what I think combining what we know about last night with the above:
Santos telling truth - Scum blocked him, knew there was a doc due to them having a roleblocker, and hit the most townie looking, knowing the doc would likely be protecting the cop. They got lucky and hit the doc. In this case they will either
A) Let Santos live keeping him blocked hoping that this causes townies to suspect him, or
B) They will hit him tonight knowing there is no one to save him now, and the fact that many are starting to believe him a confirmed townie is too risky.

Santos lying - They may or may not have a roleblocker. We still don't know. He claimed cop, and we know we had a doc. This would tell us either
A) They have a roleblocker and there is a real cop out there
B) They don't have a roleblocker and there no cop, leaving this Santos free. (They would not have known this when he claimed however)

What we do about the above I'm not sure yet. But it is worth noting that just blindly believing him because he made it through the night is the wrong thing to do. My gut has been saying that our course of action should be, to leave him alone one more night, and see if he bites it. I'm not sure that is the correct choice just thinking aloud.

I can say though that I think that if Santos is lying and there is a real cop, he should be on his toes. Be very careful about advice that people give you, only you know what your play should be.

[xRECKONERx]

If Santos is telling the truth, then that would imply a roleblocker.

And I didn't know it was against the rules. Other Mafia games I've played allow contact like doctor-to-cop, etc. So I wasn't sure. Thanks for clarifying.

[Scien]

...if he is the cop no one has counterclaimed and if they don't now... It's a bad idea.

Are you suggesting that you think a cop should claim right now if he exists? Could you tell me why you believe this if I read the above correctly?

[Scien]

Woops. Didn't see Reckoner's post.

Yes if Santos is telling the truth it implies there is a role blocker. I believe I have that that condition. However, if he is lying we don't know if there is or if there isn't, it could be either or.

[Henrz]

Are you suggesting that you think a cop should claim right now if he exists? Could you tell me why you believe this if I read the above correctly

Is that wrong to do? If so, sorry, this is only my second game But the logic I was thinking was if there was one less scum it would be easier for us to win. But that has some flaws... It would mean we have no cop... We should wait until the cop gets some evidence if he isn't Santos and then he'd RC right, with both of the scum proven? I suppose, not yet, not until he's got some evidence against the other scummy.

[Scien]

Is that wrong to do?

I don't know... I was mainly asking to hear others opinions. There is a trade off here that I don't know which is the most beneficial side to be on. First... if there is a real cop, and he doesn't claim, it allows for more legit investigations while the scum look to lynch or block him. However, if the cop claims now, he has at most one investigation, and we would know Santos is scum.

Assuming we trust a counter claim at this point, which is not a given.

Basically, I think the cop needs to forge his own path, as his investigations and his unique situation will drive his play. Us as blind townies or blind scum don't know the full situation and I don't think we should be urging a cop to do anything that he thinks is against townie interest.

*Please note that the above is pretty much all speculative. I'm not positive that Santos isn't cop, and still have the gut feeling to give him one more night.

But I would very much like to hear from players why they think a cop should claim now. It will give the town insight into claimed goals.

That was my point from the beginning with this question, even though it was pointed at you alone Henrz. Do you think a cop should claim now, and why do you think it would be in townie interest? This is not necessarily an attack, I really want to hear your opinions on the matter.

[Papa Zito]

Two vanilla scum:
Scum know that there is either a cop or a doc. But there definitely is one. Any claim might have a counter, or might not.

Seems kind of a risky play to claim with so little pressure and so early. However they might have tried it. It would allow a scum to pass through night 1 and possibly night 2 unscathed.

Ah, you're right. I was looking at it from a Day 2 perspective instead of a Day 1 perspective. So it's a 50/50 shot, and with only two of them, that's seriously risky business. This makes me lean towards Santos telling the truth. And serious WIFOM, heh.

I'm curious about this bit:

My gut has been saying that our course of action should be, to leave him alone one more night, and see if he bites it.

Let's pretend this scenario plays out for a moment. It's now Day 3 and Santos still lives. What does this tell you?

BTW, to answer your question Santos ... If you're scum, then the person you "investigated" is completely irrelevant. If you're scum, you're not trying to clear anyone, you're just trying to ride a claim as much as possible.

[Santos]

Scum have the advantage right now. They're not going to be stupid enough to counter claim me. Even if they do, I will advocate a lynch on myself to guarantee a lynch on them, so you guys know, I was telling the truth. So if they counter claim me, I will vote myself, so you guys can see.

However, know that if they counter claim me (and you all lynch me) it would be suicide for them in the end because there would only be one mafia left versus 4 townies the next day. Except if you townies miss, you will lose.

So today, we definitely cannot miss a mafia member or it will be a slippery slope.

[Santos]

On a side note: does the mafia roleblocker have a night kill ability if we take out the regular mafia goon?

[Santos]

bump

[Papa Zito]

Scum have the advantage right now. They're not going to be stupid enough to counter claim me. Even if they do, I will advocate a lynch on myself to guarantee a lynch on them, so you guys know, I was telling the truth. So if they counter claim me, I will vote myself, so you guys can see.

Your willingness to self-vote really makes me nervous. You've already done it once and here you are saying you'll do it again.

Every time I feel like I've settled on an opinion on this issue, someone says something and I start rethinking everything again. Good grief.

[Scien]

It's now Day 3 and Santos still lives. What does this tell you?

The possibilities are that he is scum and therefore lived because of that, or that he is town and the scum are content on roleblocking him hoping that our suspicions grow.

Like I said before I don't know the right course of action here. I suspect he would be night killed tonight, but in the case that he is not our suspicions have to grow on him.

I don't know how to play it.

So, on a side note, where is everyone else on the issue? I know some people might not have come back to the game yet, but do you guys have any insight or comments about the night or yesterday?

[Henrz]

They wouldn't kill Santos until they were sure there was no doctor protecting him, if he doesn't die tonight I

will

be very suspicious of him though, because if he is a cop he will be much more beneficial to the town than the best player.

[OhGodMyLife]

Vote Count:

4 to lynch

Not Voting: 7 (Santos, Papa Zito, Henrz, xRECKONERx, Scien, sirdanilot, MiteyMouse)

Deadline: Wednesday, May 13th at 10 PM Eastern

[Santos]

Then scum would be really smart not to kill me tonight (and not role block me)

[Scien]

because if he is a cop he will be much more beneficial to the town than the best player

If he is blocked every night he is no more beneficial than a vanilla townie. If he is telling the truth, they have a blocker. They might leave him to us, since we almost have to become suspicious of him if he makes it through tonight.