Newbie 764 - Game Over

[Sando]

I don't think anyone else is voting for him except for you and I, so it's still only L-2.

Millar is, does he unvote automatically now that he's requested replacement?

[semioldguy]

Vote:Infinis

my eyes burn from pollen...meh

Most recent Vote count shows him on Infinis (and he did not unvote before asking to be replaced)

[Korts]

I can't seem to progress fast enough through the walls of text, so I'm going to try something else, considering the strict deadline and my lack of interactions recently.

I want to ask for a summary of most important events, tells and slips in the game that might help find scum, from the following people: Kairyuu, Infinis, semioldguy. Ojanen and Sando are welcome as well to share their opinions.

One thing: keep it concise and try to make only those points that are relevant to alignment.

[Korts]

Oh, and another thing: if you're referencing someone else's post, please use links (to link directly to a specific post, right-click on the small paper icon on the left side of the date stamp of that post and copy the URL) and not quotes; quotes make walls of post even bigger.

Code: Select all

[url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/postURL]textgoeshere[/url]

[Sando]

Vote:Infinis

my eyes burn from pollen...meh

Most recent Vote count shows him on Infinis (and he did not unvote before asking to be replaced)

Yeah I misread that, so Kai is just at L-2 with 2 votes.

Korts, read these 3 posts and you're pretty much set on my opinion of Kai:

Ojanen linking Kai to Japles
Sando's D2 attack on Kai
Sando's D2 vote on Kai

Those 3 outline why I'm voting Kai pretty much, that's about as condensed as I can make it.

[Infinis]

I've done my best to convince you I'm not scum. I would also like to see input from millar's replacement.

That being said I think we have a path to victory, starting with

Vote: Kairyuu

That's L-2 me and L-1 Kai

[Korts]

I've done my best to convince you I'm not scum. I would also like to see input from millar's replacement.

That being said I think we have a path to victory, starting with

Vote: Kairyuu

That's L-2 me and L-1 Kai

Infinis, before you try to push a lynch through, can you give me a summary of major points of interest in the game like I ask in post 252?

[Infinis]

...

Regarding the request for Cop claim:

I've already posted once on why I don't think they should claim, but something else occurred to me. The scum have 1 advantage at the moment, and we make it bigger if we get a cop claimant. That is they have an idea of the game makeup and we don't. If the remaining scum is vanilla scum, they know there's only 1 townie role. If they're a roleblocker, they know there's either 2 or 0 townie roles. A cop claiming means the scum would know the exact makeup. Town can't know what the makeup is even with a claim.

This leaves us really open to a false-claim from a scum who knows the makeup.

Kai has previously asked for mass-claims in other games, it's worked well for him, I think this is just a null-tell from someone who didn't think it through fully.

No scum can false claim. Town win next day because we lynch false claiming scum. Care to explain your rationale?

[Infinis]

Alright since it's from you korts, I'll go back once again and link in the posts of interest. Since I think Kai is scum but he said he'd be away and that's bad form even if he is scum to lynch him while's he's at prom.

But only because you asked korts. I think I've made my case already and recently.

Unvote

[Infinis]

1. Kai's gambit was garbage but Sando's slip was first pointed out by Chaos and was never responded to.

2. There are huge posts of back and forth after that. Of note is that Kai exonerates Oja and Japles in his big reveal post

3. Sando attacked Kai and Chaos in these huge posts with a passing mention of japles

4. Sando tried to scare off hammer vote

5. Kai says he was wrong about Sando and turns towards me

6. Ojanen calls him on his bad arguments. So does Sando later on.

7. Sando wants Kai's opinion on Japles, which Kai refuses to give other than Infinis is scummier

8. Sando restates his Kai/Japles theory from earlier

9. Ojanen makes a good summary of why Kai/Japles.

Okay Im going to stop here, I wrote a huge post before this, which is half done only!( i saved it for later) I cannot be concise to make the case, since I have links to back up my claims.

Either Kai or Sando is Scum, if it's anyone else they lurked too hard to get any kind of read. Old guy is making some valid points to get townie points.

[Kairyuu]

@Korts: I will keep this nice and concise for you. Disclaimer: I'm not going through the game while I do this, so some events may be slightly out of order.

1. After a post or two by you, I bring you into my gambit.
2. Chaos gets incorporated into my gambit.
3. I spring it on Sando.
4. Sando and I debate for awhile.
5. I decide I was wrong and back off of Japles.
6. Infinis proves that he is scum.
7. millar replaces in.
8. I do a reread and find Japles scummy.
9. Sando and Ojanen notice how odd my behavior towards Japles is.
10. Japles is lynched, flips scum.
11. Chaos dies N1.
12. I speculate a bit on the NK, get jumped on for that.
13. I go back to Infinis.
14. Infinis proves himself scum once again by backing off of me when he notices that support is not there yet.
15. semioldguy replaces in.
16. With semioldguy and Sando both attacking me Infinis decides to come back to my case and votes me.

That takes us to the present. I need to get lynched now so you guys can take care of Infinis D2 and win the game for the town.

@all: I am convinced that I have played absolutely terribly this game. I've been far too emotional, and I have let that cloud my judgement. The Japles issue really got to me and killed my play for D2. I need to be lynched to remove the controversy around me.

[Ojanen]

@Kai

You were actually replying to me when you thought you were replying to Sando in your last post, so this is addressed in the wrong persona.

Sando: The case I built on Sando was rather large, and the points were totally valid.

So I see the gambit is suddenly "totally valid" again.

Nope. Never said that. Gambit was crap. Case was not. I stand by the points I made against you as I backed off. They were a perfectly valid reason for me to keep my vote on.

Because you said the points were totally valid, and because the case included quite prominently the gambit, I interpreted the gambit as a point in your case. I think my interpretation was a natural one, and your line comes across to me as you wanting to brush away the memory of the gambit. Hence my comment.
I checked your "backing off" post (103) and it seems to be centered on Sando's reaction to yout attack. For what it's worth, I still stand by on what I said at the height of the Sando wagon (post 92) - at the time some of Sando's arguments against you did look streched to me so I could understand the vote, but I always thought your exaggeration in discrediting Sando's points was bigger than Sando's exaggeration in discrediting your points.

@Infinis (and Korts, if you're using Infinis' last post as a summary of what's happened)

How can someone who expresses to have read the thread more than once repeatedly misrep so bluntly what has happened?
Many points from your last post are somehow skewed and the timeline is skipping stuff.

1. Kai's gambit was garbage but Sando's slip was first pointed out by Chaos and was never responded to.

Sando's slip was actually extensively responded to. However, we now know Japles was scum. Sando was throwing suspicion to Japles from beginning of day 1, Japles put Sando to L-1 and Sando played a prominent (and early, 2nd voter) part in the Japles wagon that got him lynched. I think it's pretty clear by now the slip very, very, vrey probably wasn't a scumslip.

2. There are huge posts of back and forth after that. Of note is that Kai exonerates Oja and Japles in his big reveal post

It is of note that he exonerates Japles, but if you mention me too, why are you leaving out that Kai also exonerates Chaos40 and Korts in the same sentence?

4. Sando tried to scare off hammer vote

More accurate would be that Sando very forcefully stated that he's L-2, went over the significance of providing good reasoning with potential next votes and stated that quick lynches are generally considered bad for the town (we were on page 3).

5. Kai says he was wrong about Sando and turns towards me

Between 4 and 5 Japles makes the scummy appearance that later got him lynched, and Kai turns to lurkers and then to you.

Between 7 and 8 the Japles wagon is started.

Either Kai or Sando is Scum, if it's anyone else they lurked too hard to get any kind of read. Old guy is making some valid points to get townie points.

To be honest, I think it's strange you suspect Sando to be an extreme busser and Japles to be eager to try and quicklynch his scumbuddy.

I'll get working on another post for Korts and Kai's newest.

[Sando]

No scum can false claim. Town win next day because we lynch false claiming scum. Care to explain your rationale?

If we have a cop and he claims, and the scum is a vanilla scum, then the scum knows that there is no doc, but we do not. There are other options open, but no, I wont go into it, as theorising about it would only help scum, give them ideas and help them role-hunt.

You're assuming that any false-claim will be black and white, that there will be a counter-claim or the scumclaim will include a list of variables that we can tick-off to conclude if they're telling the truth.

You're also assuming that a claim would have to come today, which it does not. But you're attempt at getting us to do that which has already been stated as being a bad thing, role-hunt, is noted.

[Infinis]

@ojanen Sando's initial response to the slip

I read the post three times. Sando links the game talks about it, and says it's just a reference to "how one of our IC's think"

Where is the answer to why was he doing it? If he was town why bother looking into the gambit? If he was scum then why mention the whole thing? If Kai used it to catch scum and Sando is town he has no worries, if Sando is scum then he diffuses the situation by bringing it up early. And Chaos questions him about the line Sando's big defense comes after Kai's big accusation post. Sando's defense is that he was looking for contradictory behavior from game to game, purely meta arguments. And this reasoning...

Now i figure if i can start getting you to talk about a previous game, you'll screw up, and you did, i just didn't notice till now. You've changed your mind from 'don't treat newbies with kids gloves' to 'IC scum need to be careful not to put pressure on their partners in newbie games'. I think the reason you've changed your mind is because you're now scum.

Chaos calls him on it

Sando responds to Kort's accusation again. Read it, it's a hypothetical on top of a hypothetical based on meta argument. The answer as I read it is that Sando was thinking about a solution if Kai had try to run a hypothetical claim and that he was looking for a change in behavior from one game to another game. (Not a pattern of games, one game to the next. 2 times as IC does not a pattern make.) And at the end of the post he says because if Kai tried this gambit then I'd think Kai was scum or Doc. But again why bring it up at all since no such play had been made? Only scum would need to be doing this kind of research to avoid being trapped again.

Sando accuses Kai of screwing up based again on meta-gaming, bad meta-gaming. In essence, Sando is saying he trapped the trapper!

And Sando accuses kai of being manipulative and reiterates the meta-gaming argument here and he summarizes the situation

Chaos calls Sando out on this very same argument. Sando response to Chaos

Chaos is dead on in this post. My only disagreement is that the answer given is a non-answer. Read the post it is telling.

Sando steers the conversation back to Kai's gambit which is not the point.

Sando realizes that wasn't a response to Chaos argument

Chaos is now unsure and wants clarification. I don't blame him since it was two separate issues.

Kai comes out guns ablazing

Sando responds. The last paragraph is most interesting.

Sando talks about gambit and semantics not the point again. And then slides in at the end the equivalent of "I haven't done anything else scummy please ignore my non answer, to a valid question."

And Japles saves the day with his combination of bad English and logic! So Sando can address this and avoid more discussion on why he was thinking about how to deal with a scum trapping gambit. Unless you accept that he was using the comment to trap Kai with a meta-game argument based.

You(Ojanen) clear up the situation nicely, regarding The Slip, not Sando.

Sando claims to have clarified his position in regards to The Slip in the first part. I disagree the waters were muddied by walls of text (irony noted)

Chaos explains to Japles what's going on and is spot on again.

I chime in And see I missed commas for the parenthetical expression in the last paragraph first sentence. And I mention the possible bussing going on, completely wrong Kai bussing Sando or vice versa but you get my point by now.

I don't like the way it played out. Kai's flip flop basically ended The Slip controversy. Kai even admits it looks bad changing his mind this late. And Chaos once more with insightful posting (I'm finally seeing why Chaos was NK'd) The town turns towards me and Japles, especially Kai.

At this point I don't even know why I bother, yes the bussing would be extreme, but wouldn't it have cleared Japles or Sando until LyLo as it has here. I believe most are convinced Sando is town. Hell with the way things have played out he probably is.

I think Sando has made a strong case against Kai (I'm not going to summarize it, nor make a point by point analysis of it).

My main problem is Kai's hammer of Japles, his only saving grace. So if Kai, Sando and Ojanen aren't scum, that leads me back to millar. (Who requested a replacement) But again I say what if the remaining scum was one of the lurkers? What then?

[Infinis]

You've completely misrepped my point and please explain to me how I'm role hunting.

A scum falseclaim would be extremely chancy at best.

Well it's basically two possibilities:

False claim with Counterclaim is town win. Town lynches both players starting with first claimant.

False Claim with no counterclaim is the tricky one. We agree on this.

However, you are the one giving scum ideas:

If we have a cop and he claims, and the scum is a vanilla scum, then the scum knows that there is no doc, but we do not

[Sando]

Wow, just wow, I don’t know where to begin with this, I know you’ve addressed this to Ojanen, but too bad, I’m getting in here, and you’ve done the same thing as Japles did D1, make me question Kai’s scumminess in the only way possible, by acting even more scummy.

And too bad Korts, this post is too big and too insane for me not to talk to properly.

Where is the answer to why was he doing it? If he was town why bother looking into the gambit? If he was scum then why mention the whole thing? If Kai used it to catch scum and Sando is town he has no worries, if Sando is scum then he diffuses the situation by bringing it up early. And Chaos questions him about the line Sando's big defense comes after Kai's big accusation post. Sando's defense is that he was looking for contradictory behavior from game to game, purely meta arguments. And this reasoning...

I was asked to defend my comments about a previous game, the only POSSIBLE reason for me looking at that game is meta, it is the ONLY way that it can relate to this game. So of course my arguments were meta, and now you’re attacking me for it? This is the exact thing I got so upset at Kai over, you’re setting me up so that I cannot possibly explain myself adequately.

Now i figure if i can start getting you to talk about a previous game, you'll screw up, and you did, i just didn't notice till now. You've changed your mind from 'don't treat newbies with kids gloves' to 'IC scum need to be careful not to put pressure on their partners in newbie games'. I think the reason you've changed your mind is because you're now scum.

Chaos calls him on it

Where did Chaos call me on ‘it’ in that post? He basically votes me for the fact that I attacked him without voting for him. He was basically supporting Kai’s gambit without openly saying it, he never even mentions ‘The Slip’ in that post. I then call Chaos on his post in this: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 17#1593617

Sando responds to Kort's accusation again. Read it, it's a hypothetical on top of a hypothetical based on meta argument. The answer as I read it is that Sando was thinking about a solution if Kai had try to run a hypothetical claim and that he was looking for a change in behavior from one game to another game. (Not a pattern of games, one game to the next. 2 times as IC does not a pattern make.) And at the end of the post he says because if Kai tried this gambit then I'd think Kai was scum or Doc. But again why bring it up at all since no such play had been made? Only scum would need to be doing this kind of research to avoid being trapped again.

Again, I was asked to comment on a hypothetical, something that yes, I brought up, but of course my answer was going to be fairly hypothetical. You’re taking what I was saying completely out of context. And since apparently only scum would need to do this, vote me, you’ll see either when I’m lynched, NKd or at the end of the game what I am. At least 2 people are already pretty convinced that I’m town, how about you have a think about it again. Don't attack me for doing what I was asked to do, it might fool some, but I will catch you doing it to me. Manipulation of this sort might get you some cheap points, but you will look like what you are, a manipulator, once we catch you at it.

By the way, your link didn’t work, and I didn’t respond to Korts that page, so I assume you mean Kai.

And Sando accuses kai of being manipulative and reiterates the meta-gaming argument here and he summarizes the situation

Your first link doesn’t have me discussing meta game, and the second post is directed to Chaos, not Kai, wanna try that one again?

Chaos is dead on in this post. My only disagreement is that the answer given is a non-answer. Read the post it is telling.

This is where your post starts to degenerate even further. Chaos wasn’t dead on, you might have thought so at the time, but we have the benefit of hindsight here. Chaos was supporting Kai’s gambit, a gambit Kai himself has said failed. Given that you've just said that you completely agree with Chaos on this, I take it to mean that you think Kai's gambit worked well?

Sando steers the conversation back to Kai's gambit which is not the point.

It was the point.
Link, what I was responding to.

Kairyuu's argument was very convincing and, once hearing his take on the gambit he played I felt confident enough to vote you.

once hearing his take on the gambit he played I felt confident enough to vote you

his take on the gambit he played

gambit

Gee, I wonder if chaos was talking about the gambit… Boys and girls, if you want a classic case of misrepresentation, there you go.

I chime in And see I missed commas for the parenthetical expression in the last paragraph first sentence. And I mention the possible bussing going on, completely wrong Kai bussing Sando or vice versa but you get my point by now.

What I have noticed is that this is your first substantive post for the game, and we’re at the end of page 4, with all this having already happened, you’ve been quiet up until this point haven’t you? On top of that, you don’t really give any opinions, you just reiterate what has happened already. In fact all of your points are purely restating what has already happened. You don’t vote anyone, you don’t FOS anyone, and you don’t even look at Japles…

I don't like the way it played out. Kai's flip flop basically ended The Slip controversy. Kai even admits it looks bad changing his mind this late. And Chaos once more with insightful posting (I'm finally seeing why Chaos was NK'd) The town turns towards me and Japles, especially Kai.

You do realised that by this point I’ve already attacked Japles, and linked him to Kai? I didn’t vote him, but he was at the same point as you are now, acting hugely scummy in a way to make me doubt my convictions regarding Kai, here’s my post, directly after the one chaos quotes: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 60#1597260

Only reason I'm not voting you right now is I can't not vote to lynch Kai today. Kai has stated that we shouldn't hold Japles against him after today, and it will forever weigh on my mind if that happens, so I have to vote for him today. However you've basically confirmed in my mind that it's either you or Kai, so if Kai isn't scum, and I'm alive tomorrow, I will be gunning for you, much harder than I have for Kai today. You've consistently and deliberately misrepresented nearly everything that has happened. You've never made a convincing case on anyone, merely followed the general mood, and you didn't vote for the only confirmed scum, and are now trying to build a case against someone listed as one of two people pretty much confirmed.

Oh, and now this:

No scum can false claim. Town win next day because we lynch false claiming scum. Care to explain your rationale?

So firstly you think there is no possibility scum can false claim to their advantage...

Well it's basically two possibilities:

False claim with Counterclaim is town win. Town lynches both players starting with first claimant.

False Claim with no counterclaim is the tricky one. We agree on this.

Yet now you agree with me? I'm done letting you get away with this sort of thing. Sorry to people who can't catch up, but I'm going to call you on every, single, instance that you do this with from now on, it's just getting ridiculous. I explained my rationale, as you requested, and you try to backtrack to say "we agree on this". We might now, we certainly didn't before, and I would like it noted that I was right, and you were wrong and now agree with me.

However, you are the one giving scum ideas:

That wasn't an idea, it was a simple statement of fact, any scum knows it. What they choose to do with that information and what we choose to give them determines the sort of claims they can make that could win or lose them the game.



Sorry if you wanted concise posts, but I'd much rather highlight the glaring errors/misreps etc than ignore them for the sake of someone catching up.

[Infinis]

I think we're talking about two different gambits.

Kai said this game's gambit failed, not the previous gambit you were thinking about how to respond to. To clarify, you were thinking about a gambit to catch scum and how to respond to it. Why? I argue and link posts to show this but we obviously disagree.

You hypothetically say that if Kai had ran the previous' game's gambit then he would be doc or scum. Again that wasn't the issue, the issue was thinking about the whole thing. It was dodgy that you wrote it and kai was the only one to clear you before Japles flipped scum. Japles saved you.

I didn't vote you back then because I thought you were innocent, I thought the whole thing was thin and Kai attacked you on newbie play. On the rereread I see how the debate lasted for so long, it was a two pronged debate. This games gambit vs you thinking about Kai's prior game gambit. The issues got crossed and the main point of the second prong was lost. I stand by what I said about it. I still think you're most likely town.

Hindsight is 20/20 but without looking back at previous posts what do you suggest we do to scum-hunt?

I've already posted once on why I don't think they should claim, but something else occurred to me. The scum have 1 advantage at the moment, and we make it bigger if we get a cop claimant. That is they have an idea of the game makeup and we don't. If the remaining scum is vanilla scum, they know there's only 1 townie role. If they're a roleblocker, they know there's either 2 or 0 townie roles. A cop claiming means the scum would know the exact makeup. Town can't know what the makeup is even with a claim.

This leaves us really open to a false-claim from a scum who knows the makeup.

I agree only with the second possibility not first. A falseclaim with counterclaim is a town win, cop or doc. Nowhere do I ask or even hint about making a claim. Argue with me all you like about me misrepping what was said, but here you are totally fabricating an issue.

Find the link or quote me where I ask for a claim or hint about a claim, prior to the recent response to your comments.

If I didn't know better I'd say you were preemptively blocking a claim.

[Infinis]

My last comment just in case I don't live to post another day is reread me.

1) I tried to keep up but between Sando and Kai but the walls of text were astonishing. I said this back then I say this now.

2) I reread, it was 5-6 hour process, I wrote one long post scrapped it(saved to word) and wrote the long one here. I linked as best as I could. I went with the arguments as written. I apologize if I misquoted anyone, but I wrote it as I saw it. Yes it is looking back and things are clearer now, but that is the nature of the beast.

3) I voted Kai today. I think the town victory lies in that direction. millar who I think is scummy asked for a replacement Kai said he would be gone. korts wanted input from people so I unvoted Kai from being at L-1.

4) The only person who should be confirmed town is Oja. Yes Sando is almost confrmed, but it is possible that he was distancing from Japles initially and then it turn into bussing. Right now with Sando just plain making up me wanting a claim, I don't know what to think about Sando.

5) The question stands what if the Day 1 lurkers, J_L or millar are one of the remaining scum what then?

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Official Vote Count

Infinis - 2 (Kairyuu, Starbuck)

Kairyuu - 2 (semioldguy, Sando)

Not Voting - 3 (Infinis, Korts, Ojanen)

4 to Lynch.

Deadline

is the end of Saturday, May 9th (Eastern, GMT - 4).

[Ojanen]

It's interesting to see the different game summaries.

5. I decide I was wrong and back off of Japles.

I think that should say Sando.

6. Infinis proves that he is scum.

I know Korts wanted concise and you have two other points mentioning Infinis' fluctuation of opinion on you, but ummmm. How well explained and referenced.
Kai actually dropped his case on Infinis on beginning of day 2 for a reason I found to be thin in regards to how Day 1 played out, namely the assumption that anyone new to the site would most likely kill an IC (Korts, even though he wasn't really in the game) if they didn't kill Sando or me. He has made a new attack on Infinis since then but the buiding of the case has been more aggression and less analyse than I expected.

Sando commented on the emotion - I've noticed it too. The slightly overdramatic and exasperated thing coming from Kai's likely lynch associates better to coming from scum giving up rather than a townie who says he's certain who the last scum is and wants to communicate a case forward.

Okay.
I'll get to it.
This is the L-1 vote. Anyone voting Kai after this need to be fully conscious that they're hammering him unless some further unvotes happen.

vote: Kairyuu

I outlined the link between Japles and Kai already long ago, the message has been referenced several times lately but here's the link again.

I find it a lot more likely that Kai's link to Japles is due to Kai being scum than Kai having really bad luck with several instanses of timing coupled to oversight. I entered day 2 with this in my mind, I've tried to be open to other possibilities and pursue them. Infinis certainly has scummy traits. In the end I don't think it will change that I still find Kai to be the scummiest player alive. This link isn't something that can or will change and it should be inspected.

[Kairyuu]

Go ahead Infinis-scum. You can hammer now. I won't self-hammer, but I can see my time has come.

Good luck everyone. I hope you catch the last scum (*cough* Infinis *cough*).

I'll have a nice, full analysis of all of the players post-game.

[Korts]

Hm. Ojanen's post detailing the Kairyuu-Japles link is convincing.

The problem with Kai I have is that the focal point of his defense seems to be that he, according only to him and a scum meta of two (!) games, doesn't gambit as scum. This is a weak argument by all means, considering the statistically insignificant pool of his games as scum and the biased perspective he's presenting.

I think this day's gone as far as it'll get.

vote: Kairyuu

[Kairyuu]

Bah! Go town!

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Starbuck replaces Millar13.

[Starbuck]

I just wanted to pop in and say hi.


I'm about to head off to work and don't have time to read through the thread, but I will probably on my lunch break or after I get off this afternoon.


Also, I'm in the Navy and stationed in Sicily, so my timing will be a bit off from the rest of you guys.