Mini 749 - Antarctic Mafia [Game Over]

[The Replacement]

Sorry this is taking a bit longer than expected. This week has been hell.

Have you checked the children?

The Replacement - 1 (DraketheFake)
tubby216 - 3 (Light-kun, Netlava, TheReplacement)
Netlava - 2 (HowardRoark, tubby216)

Not Voting - 1 (JereIC)


7 alive, 4 to lynch

-Mod

(Vote Count accurate as of Post 887)

[Netlava]

How did those two appear town while everyone felt scummy?

By everyone seeming scummy, I didn't mean everyone. Mostly the players that were alive.

Seeing him as a SK, he can wait; but as scum, why? The rest of post 7 is the case against JereIC. I will highlight this piece

I didn't want to discount the possibility of LK being scum quite yet.

So you thought his outburst were faked? To what end?

I thought it may have been faked before checking who I replaced and realizing that there is no point in faking outbursts.

I do think that DtF is the most likely to be town from the players remaining

Why?

That's my read on him.

[HowardRoark]

One trend that I was highlighting is that you have been very wishy-washy on everyone. ("Everyone seemed scummy." Then so and so is not really scummy. Then not wanting to name an alternate yesterday. *sigh*) Yesterday, you were all over JereIC with a weak case (as you admitted that Fishythefish was the only candidate) but today you have almost completely ignored him although he is still supposedly your prime suspect.

I still cannot understand why it matters if ZEEnon was faking his outbursts. Unless you were attempting to pre-emptively counter that as a scum tell against your role.

I'm not comfortable with multiple wagons during Lylo. It makes it easier for scum to quicklynch at any given moment. We should really decide on who to lynch before voting.

Setting up an out for a mislynch? Trying to avoid intentionally bussing? Actively lurking? Having others play the game for you?

I would really like you to address this.

[tubby216]

here is what i do not understand, i cleared LK and i cleared JereIC thats two confirmed pro- town players, and yet these are the guys that want me lynched.

my investigation choice for tonite will be the replacemnet since jazzmyn was so dodgey and had no real input.

[Light-kun]

Umvote

Death Note Mafia is awesome but has literally wiped my brain. Going to look at my last post and the past few pages to remember why the hell I voted Tubby anyway.

[Light-kun]

Oh yeah, the "Adelie penguin-role cop claim."

Yeah, that looks like BS, and since I was easy (just admit I'm vig, duh) and I dunno about JereIC, I'm going back to this:

Vote Tubby

To clarify: I still heavily suspect Jazzmyn and Netlava as scum. Howard is my other guess.

Since it won't matter tonight, I WILL be shooting one of my suspects tonight. Also, Tubby isn't number 1 on my scum list:

Percentages:
Netlava: 45%
Tubby: 39%
Jazzmyn: 35%
Howard: 34%

Sorry Howard, but scum look good (from my perspective), so I doubt a mafiaoso would replace out right now, so Jazz is almost as likely to be scum as you. Netlava I feel has been active lurking most the game where as Tubby contributed. His claim, however, looks like complete bullshit, and I know that I shouldn't buy into flavor this much (I don't...) I just don't see two different roles being the same species. I'm going with hence my vote.

[Light-kun]

EBWOP: Actually, I could almost see mafia rolecop for Tubby. That'd be interesting.

[JereIC]

To clarify: I still heavily suspect Jazzmyn and Netlava as scum. Howard is my other guess.

Since it won't matter tonight, I WILL be shooting one of my suspects tonight. Also, Tubby isn't number 1 on my scum list:

Percentages:
Netlava: 45%
Tubby: 39%
Jazzmyn: 35%
Howard: 34%

Sorry Howard, but scum look good (from my perspective), so I doubt a mafiaoso would replace out right now, so Jazz is almost as likely to be scum as you. Netlava I feel has been active lurking most the game where as Tubby contributed. His claim, however, looks like complete bullshit, and I know that I shouldn't buy into flavor this much (I don't...) I just don't see two different roles being the same species. I'm going with hence my vote.

At the moment Tubby and Net are voting for each other, so it's unlikely they're both mafia. If scum are really one mislynch away from victory in the Antarctic, it's more likely they'd be pushing for the mislynch rather than bussing each other.

Which makes Howard's earlier hawk-vote for Tubby a conundrum.

[tubby216]

To clarify: I still heavily suspect Jazzmyn and Netlava as scum. Howard is my other guess.

Since it won't matter tonight, I WILL be shooting one of my suspects tonight. Also, Tubby isn't number 1 on my scum list:

Percentages:
Netlava: 45%
Tubby: 39%
Jazzmyn: 35%
Howard: 34%

Sorry Howard, but scum look good (from my perspective), so I doubt a mafiaoso would replace out right now, so Jazz is almost as likely to be scum as you. Netlava I feel has been active lurking most the game where as Tubby contributed. His claim, however, looks like complete bullshit, and I know that I shouldn't buy into flavor this much (I don't...) I just don't see two different roles being the same species. I'm going with hence my vote.

At the moment Tubby and Net are voting for each other, so it's unlikely they're both mafia.

If scum are really one mislynch away from victory in the Antarctic, it's more likely they'd be pushing for the mislynch rather than bussing each other.

Which makes Howard's earlier hawk-vote for Tubby a conundrum.

ok this is what we should be looking at, i am not even the top of his list for scum but he wants to vote for me anyway?? and i cleared him??

wich exactly why i claimed today to aviod a mislynch sheesh

[Light-kun]

To clarify: I still heavily suspect Jazzmyn and Netlava as scum. Howard is my other guess.

Since it won't matter tonight, I WILL be shooting one of my suspects tonight. Also, Tubby isn't number 1 on my scum list:

Percentages:
Netlava: 45%
Tubby: 39%
Jazzmyn: 35%
Howard: 34%

Sorry Howard, but scum look good (from my perspective), so I doubt a mafiaoso would replace out right now, so Jazz is almost as likely to be scum as you. Netlava I feel has been active lurking most the game where as Tubby contributed. His claim, however, looks like complete bullshit, and I know that I shouldn't buy into flavor this much (I don't...) I just don't see two different roles being the same species. I'm going with hence my vote.

At the moment Tubby and Net are voting for each other, so it's unlikely they're both mafia. If scum are really one mislynch away from victory in the Antarctic, it's more likely they'd be pushing for the mislynch rather than bussing each other.

Which makes Howard's earlier hawk-vote for Tubby a conundrum. :?

Actually, if I were mafia (since that is the one thing I'm obviously not), mafia voting each other wouldn't be a bad move because it: Distances AND to win, you just change your vote to another person via bandwagon, other person changes their vote and this is all done in one post (unvote/vote), so there really isn't a disadvantage. It's possible the mafia discussed that town would definitely suspect 1 or 2/3 of them and they want us to be confused on the last 2/3 people. I think that this is all a bit of speculation though.

At tubby: Your species claim is bullshit in my opinion. Yes, there is little sense in a killer whale putting a bullet hole in someone's head. However, there is NO SENSE in an adelie penguin being the townies AND the role cop as a species. 1 species to role type is the only reason for species to exist, in my opinion. So, if it makes you feel better, you just jumped up 8%.

[tubby216]

ok so your reason is based on flavor?? give me a friggin break,

i cleared you , i cleared Jere IC , I am uncountered, I have no other cop claiming a guilty on me, I am a claimed pro town power role and yet you vote for me.

jeez town deserves to lose.


and it doesn't matter for me since i will most likely be killed tonite anyway.

if there is an award for makin the wrong moves as a confirmed town LK you just won it.

[The Replacement]

I have been working on my final project for university (finished with

everything

in two days!!!!)... so I've only managed to do a lot of skimming and quickreading through the majority of this game. However, I think there is an obvious lynch today.

Vote: tubby216

The only non-vanilla so far to be mod-revealed was not an Adelie Penguin. The other power roles claimed, have also not claimed as Adelie Penguins. The claim reeks.

I am against the vigilante killing anyone tonight. If you target someone and that person is town, then we lose.

I need to do a closer read of both day two and day three and should be back sometime tomorrow with a post on my thoughts

[DraketheFake]

I've changed my mind: I'd rather try and win this one on the laurels of properly lynching. Using L-k as a second lynch right now only benefits the scum who would have to try and defend themselves tomorrow. The set of circumstances where L-k shooting another scum helps us attain the possibility of a mislynch isn't very likely: or, rather, relies on imperfect knowledge of the set-up. L-k, does it bother you at all that two of the three people voting for tubby are your other top two suspects?

[JereIC]

Actually, if I were mafia (since that is the one thing I'm obviously not), mafia voting each other wouldn't be a bad move because it: Distances AND to win, you just change your vote to another person via bandwagon, other person changes their vote and this is all done in one post (unvote/vote), so there really isn't a disadvantage. It's possible the mafia discussed that town would definitely suspect 1 or 2/3 of them and they want us to be confused on the last 2/3 people. I think that this is all a bit of speculation though.

Actually, it might also be that he set the vote as a trap, figuring that if a townie stopped by and voted tubby he could unvote and claim the townie was trying to pull a speedlynch.

I'm still against LK killing tonight. Unfortunately, having him not kill last night screwed up the math, and we've got basically no advantage to having him kill tonight. Say there's three scum, and we lynch one of them today. If LK kills a townie tonight, we lose. If he kills scum tonight, we go into Day 4 with three pro-town players and one scum. At that point, we can lynch the last scum (yay), no lynch to narrow down the options in Day 5 (spoiler alert: they kill LK), or mislynch and hope LK saves us by killing the last scum Night 4. That is, if LK shoots right, we basically buy ourselves one mislynch in Day 4. If he shoots wrong, game over man. Do you trust a guy with a giant flipper instead of a hand to shoot right?

I'm ready to hammer Tubby as soon as LK gives us some more info on his plans tonight.

[HowardRoark]

Unfortunately, having him not kill last night screwed up the math, and we've got basically no advantage to having him kill tonight.

Having him not kill last night also helped to narrow the scum pool.

Based on the fact that Light-kun's top three suspects are the same as mine, I'm tempted to tell him to shoot. It's that risk of a bad shot losing the game that scares me. What are your plans?

[The Replacement]

Unfortunately, having him not kill last night screwed up the math, and we've got basically no advantage to having him kill tonight.

I disagree with this, as if he shot yesterday, and he shot a townie, there might not have even been a today. Having him not kill last night ensured that we'd still be playing today.

Beginning of day two had 9 players.
The town mislynched, bringing it to 8 players.
Scum are going to kill someone, that puts it to 7 players (which is where we are).
If Light-kun shot town, that'd put it to 6 players. If there are three scum, then town loses. If there are two scum, we are still at mislynch and lose.

Also being at an odd number, as opposed to an even number, is beneficial to the town. The math is actually better because he didn't shoot in my opinion. Having an even number means that the town needs a larger percentage of the remaining players to make he majority and a lynch (4/7 = 57%; 4/6 = 67%). An even number makes it more likely that scum will have to be on any wagon. Also having an odd number helps in finding scum in lynch or lose situations (max3/7 = 43%; max2/6 = 33%) as mislynching in either situation loses the game, but it is less likely for the scum to be able to hide if there is an odd number of remainig players when compared to an even number.

[Netlava]

here is what i do not understand, i cleared LK and i cleared JereIC thats two confirmed pro- town players, and yet these are the guys that want me lynched.

Good point! How did you manage to not get quicklynched with 2 "confirmed" pro-town players on your wagon? (Admittedly, JereIC jumped off your wagon).

And obvious fakeclaim is obvious. You just said earlier that you couldn't determine alignment.

[tubby216]

i cannot determine alignment but have you ever heard of a role cop getting a result of "town" and that person being scum,, or a result of vig and that person being scum?



i have been honest and told you people everything i know,

well played scum gg all

[HowardRoark]

Scum fail . . . SOLD!!

unvote
vote tubby216

[DraketheFake]

*baited breath*

[JereIC]

*baited breath*

A fish pun, Dr. Fake?

[orangepenguin]

You don't remember me? We spoke on the phone two days ago. I told you I would find you.

The Replacement - 1 (DraketheFake)

tubby216 - 4 (Light-kun, Netlava, TheReplacement. HowardRoark)

Netlava - 1 (tubby216)

Not Voting - 1 (JereIC)

The morale of the town was low. The death count of the townies were ever increasing, and not a single predator had been found.

The third day was spent searching for them, especially since the cold let up and the sun was out and beamed below the Antarctic village. Nobody knew where to turn to, but a plan was settled, to weed out the pretenders from the genuine.

"I know, lets confess our species." Although this should've been obvious to species of higher intelligence, the species of Antarctica weren't that smart to differentiate different species. One by one, people of the village confessed which species they were. "I am a Adelie penguin" some said. Including tubby, who claimed to be an Adelie penguin role cop.

"Guys, I am a role cop Adelie penguin!" Warning signs flared throughout the town. A role cop Adelie penguin? Things didn't make any sense. None at all! "I am confirmed town!" screamed tubby, after fingers started being pointed.

tubby began snarling and began to show his teeth. "I AM TOWN. YOU CAN'T LYNCH ME!". Feathers fell from his mouth. You could see a burnt red stain surrounding his mouth, that you didn't really notice beforehand.

...

The fur on the back of his neck began to raise and he was about to attack. Quickly enough, Light-kun, Netlava, and The Replacement were able to force him to the ground.

Somehow, the three of them were able to keep him down, but they weren't able to hang him from the rope. They needed one more. Howard approached the snarling, predator that was tubby.

It seemed quite obvious now what he was, but the town awaited with baited breaths.

tubby216 -

Mafia Role Cop / Elephant Seal

- Lynched Day 3.

It is now night 3.
Please send in your night actions before Friday.

[orangepenguin]

The town finally killed one of the predators. You know now what creatures they are - Seals. Of course! It should've been so obvious, as seal attacks were once common in the old penguin settlement.

Everyone was happy and rejoiced. The body of tubby216 was pecked apart and the village decides to dance the night way and belly slide right into the icy, cold waters of the ocean. Well, almost everyone.

Drake knew it was his job to protect the colonies. He was an Emperor penguin afterall, in a colony full of smaller Adelie penguins. His past was truly unknown. Rumors circulated that he came from a place. A place called SeaWorld, where he gained all his knowledge..

Well, we're getting off-topic. Drake was wondering his own, searching the area for clues. He knew the town shouldn't be out partying and let their guard down. Afterall, nobody knew how many predators or seals there were out there.

He couldn't find anything. Nothing at all. He was so exhausted...a little swim wouldn't hurt, he thought. He dived into the water, miles apart from the rest of the town. It was dark, but underwater, it was a different story, a different world. It was an escape from reality. Nothing could touch him here.

Or so he thought. Lurking in the shadows, the mafia awaited. They could see him moving, his blood streaming through his veins. The thirst for his blood was too much.

The water turned a dark red. But nobody in the town saw the bloody water, nor did they ever see Drake again and his body - whatever was left of it, was lost and never recovered.

DraketheFake -

Doctor / Emperor Penguin

- Killed Night 3

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. It is now Day 4.

[Light-kun]

Tubby's death is good. Now, we just need to solve for the last two scum players. Drake's death doesn't surprise me too much, but the lack of attack on me prior to now does.

The five still alive are:
JereIC
Light-kun
The Replacement [Jazzmyn] [pacman281292]
Netlava [hohum] [ZEEnon]
HowardRoark [Mizz.Mafia]

Hm... that leave 4 people likely to be scum. 3 of them helped in lynching scum. Therefore, at least one of those 3 is scum. JereIC didn't vote. JereIC with netlava would make the scum team in my opinion.

Thoughts anyone?

[Light-kun]

Notes to consider
All possible remaining scum members:

The Replacement Net
The Replacement Howard
The Replacement Jere
Jere Howard
Jere Net
Howard Net