Vengeful 5p - Open 158: Game over before 829


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Post Post #75 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2009 6:25 pm

Post by Far_Cry »

Ok srry guys busy day. Couldnt do much.

I think semi is more suspicious than ekim. However I'm not completely forgetting about ekim - he's still noted down.

Mod
: Probably V/LA until August 8-9 (goin to San Diego). This prolly shouldnt be much of a problem but Im informing u anyways.

About that analysis I promised, I will try to do it ASAP.
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Post Post #76 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2009 7:13 pm

Post by BridgesAndBaloons »

Vote Count has not changed

Vote Count #2
With
5
alive it takes
3
to lynch!


Semioldguy - (1)
Yosarian2

ekiM - (1)
semioldguy


Not voting:
Far_Cry, ekiM, Hoopla


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Post Post #77 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2009 11:04 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Yosarian2 wrote:
Hoopla wrote: As for you Yos, I think it would clever a position to take as godfather being the aggressor, as such, particularly in a meek, impressionable town. I see your play clearing town players early as a way to impose your opinions first, which seems a safe place for the godfather to be.
Well...townhunting is one of the best ways to go in a vengeful game, in my experence; in a game so small, if you can figure out one person is town, it really improves your chances.

Plus, I understand how it might get you paranoid, but me being agressive here, in a town that was otherwise kind of stalled, is the best way for me to act as town.

Anyway, I'm incresingly confident Hoopla is town here; if she was scum, and I had just declared her town, I would expect her to use that to her advantage, to buddy up with me, and to use that to get a better endgame result.

I will say that if you're pretty sure that a certain person is the goon, lynching that person is a good play. Lynching the godfather on day 1 dosn't really happen all that often, and if you lynch a goon, it gives the town 2 more days to lynch the godfather.

I don't know Yos, I think taking a punt that you're the godfather and lynching you instead would be a better play from my perspective. Another positive is that if you are actually town, I think the venge-kill would be in safer hands, than semioldguy's, who has barely participated. Convincing the town to lynch on a process of elimination play is hard to do though.
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Post Post #78 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2009 1:29 am

Post by ekiM »

Yosarian2 wrote:
ekiM wrote:When I said that his V/LA is not an alignment-tell that is, in fact, what I meant.
You said
I guess it's not an alignment tell but it is awfully anti-town to be AWOL for a week right near the start of a game, especially a short one like this set-up.
Which sounds like you're trying to have it both ways.
Bullshit. I complained that it's bad for the town that SOG has gone away, but I specifically said I didn't think it was an alignment tell. How is that trying to have it both ways?
Yosarian2 wrote:
Yosarian, do you know whom Hoopla suspects? I don't see where she's lain it out any more clearly than I have, yet you haven't questioned that.
In fact, since she called you out for buddying and you denied it, you haven't addressed her at all. Why is that?
Hoopla seems pretty obviously pro-town.

The way she unvoted semioldguy when I voted him, putting him at lynch -1 seemed pro-town to me; at the very least, I can't see her doing that as scum unless she's scum with semioldguy, and even then, that's not the vibe I'm getting.

Besies that, she's been very active, and her reasoning feels pro-town to me.
The main question was "do you know whom Hoopla suspects?". When I asked, did you?
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Post Post #79 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2009 1:33 am

Post by ekiM »

Vote: Far_Cry
. Read him in iso. He hasn't given a single reason for
anything
, all game.
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Post Post #80 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2009 4:03 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

Hoopla wrote:

I don't know Yos, I think taking a punt that you're the godfather and lynching you instead would be a better play from my perspective. Another positive is that if you are actually town, I think the venge-kill would be in safer hands, than semioldguy's, who has barely participated. Convincing the town to lynch on a process of elimination play is hard to do though.
(shrug) Just from a theoretical standpoint, if you are pretty sure that person A is the goon, and you think that person B or C might be the godfather, lynching person A is the right move. Because if you lynch person A and they are scum, then you get 2 more lynches to find the godfather. You should always lynch someone if you think they're scum.

Anyway, it really sounds like you mostly think I'm scum because I've been active and leading the town; whereas the truth is, being active and leading the town are town tells, they're what the town should do. It's especally true in vengeful games, when every scum is hoping that two townies will get into a fight, one will get lynched, and then will vengekill the other; so scum tend to be quiet and stay out of the way.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #81 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2009 4:05 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

ekiM wrote:
Yosarian2 wrote:
ekiM wrote:When I said that his V/LA is not an alignment-tell that is, in fact, what I meant.
You said
I guess it's not an alignment tell but it is awfully anti-town to be AWOL for a week right near the start of a game, especially a short one like this set-up.
Which sounds like you're trying to have it both ways.
Bullshit. I complained that it's bad for the town that SOG has gone away, but I specifically said I didn't think it was an alignment tell. How is that trying to have it both ways?
Because at the end of that paragraph, you seemed to have concluded he was scummy, and this "anti-town action" was the strongest point you seemed to have against him.
The main question was "do you know whom Hoopla suspects?". When I asked, did you?
No, at the time, i didn't. Then again, for the first few pages in the game, I didn't really know who anyone suspected, until I started taking the lead and demanding answeres from everyone. You included.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #82 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2009 4:54 am

Post by Hoopla »

Yosarian2 wrote:
Hoopla wrote:

I don't know Yos, I think taking a punt that you're the godfather and lynching you instead would be a better play from my perspective. Another positive is that if you are actually town, I think the venge-kill would be in safer hands, than semioldguy's, who has barely participated. Convincing the town to lynch on a process of elimination play is hard to do though.
Anyway, it really sounds like you mostly think I'm scum because I've been active and leading the town; whereas the truth is, being active and leading the town are town tells, they're what the town should do. It's especally true in vengeful games, when every scum is hoping that two townies will get into a fight, one will get lynched, and then will vengekill the other; so scum tend to be quiet and stay out of the way.

Perhaps I am, but the percentages between random chance and my informed choices aren't that signifigant with no alignment information. If I can rule one or two people out from being the godfather, I think it's a good percentage play to take a potshot at that, because really the margin of difference between you or semioldguy isn't huge. The difference between lynching godfather or goon is. Does that make more sense?
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Post Post #83 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2009 2:59 pm

Post by Yosarian2 »

Hoopla wrote: Anyway, it really sounds like you mostly think I'm scum because I've been active and leading the town; whereas the truth is, being active and leading the town are town tells, they're what the town should do. It's especally true in vengeful games, when every scum is hoping that two townies will get into a fight, one will get lynched, and then will vengekill the other; so scum tend to be quiet and stay out of the way.
Perhaps I am, but the percentages between random chance and my informed choices aren't that signifigant with no alignment information. [/quote]

That's kind of a defeatist attitude. It really dosn't take that much to catch scum in a game this small.
If I can rule one or two people out from being the godfather, I think it's a good percentage play to take a potshot at that, because really the margin of difference between you or semioldguy isn't huge. The difference between lynching godfather or goon is. Does that make more sense?
No, it's not, because I'm town, and semioldguy is clearly scum and quite likely the godfather. :(

Look, there are 4 possibilities about how day 1 goes in a vengful game:

1: Town lynches godfather. Town wins. (Almost never happens, since all 3 town people have to vote together here)
2. Town lynches goon. Town gets 2 more lynches to find the last scum.
3. Town lynches townie. That townie manages to kill a scum. 3 person endgame, town gets one chance to lynch the last scum.
4. Town lynches townie. That townie kills another townie. Town loses.

And the difference between #2 and #3 is pretty big; it's the difference between one more lynch and two to find the last scum. "Let's lynch player X because then if he's town he'll probably shoot better then average" is just very anti-town logic.

Basically, we really want to lynch scum today. Lynching the godfather is of couse ideal, but it's pretty rare, and if we lynch the goon today we've got a much higher chance of lynching the godfather day 2 or day 3 then we would today.

Anyway, could you explain why, exactally, you think anything I've done this game made you think I was scum?
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #84 (ISO) » Sat Aug 08, 2009 6:33 am

Post by semioldguy »

I don't see Yosarian2 and Hoopla as likely to be scum together. Yosarian's defense doesn't sit well with me. I have never liked people defending themselves saying little other than "I'm town" or analyzing their own actions as being town. If you are aware that your actions are a town tell and are explaining them as such, then they aren't town tells, they become null tells. Let other players do the analysis on you and defend their points with reasons, not with self-analysis and explanations for why it is town. I would also say that confirmation bias doesn't apply to Yosarian2.
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Post Post #85 (ISO) » Sat Aug 08, 2009 6:41 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

[quote="semioldguy"]I don't see Yosarian2 and Hoopla as likely to be scum together. Yosarian's defense doesn't sit well with me. I have never liked people defending themselves saying little other than "I'm town" or analyzing their own actions as being town. If you are aware that your actions are a town tell and are explaining them as such, then they aren't town tells, they become null tells. Let other players do the analysis on you and defend their points with reasons, not with self-analysis and explanations for why it is town. I would also say that confirmation bias doesn't apply to Yosarian2.[/quote

This guy is SOOO SCUMM. He is quite clearly trying to manipulate Hoopla here, to turn her suspicion of me to his advantage.

Can we PLEASE just lynch him now?

Semioldguy: If a person suspects me because she thinks things I am doing are scum tells, and those things are actually not scum tells at all and are in fact the correct way for a pro-town person to act, then that's a perfectly good defense. "Town tells" aren't really a good term; let's say a good pro-town way of acting, then.

And, frankly, I don't believe that you actually have a problem with my defense; it dosn't make sense for you to attack me because of my defense, especally when you didn't seem to have a problem with me before. I'm pretty sure that you saw Hoopla's suspicions of me, and decided to try to use that to your advantage.
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Post Post #86 (ISO) » Sat Aug 08, 2009 6:54 am

Post by semioldguy »

I disagree with Hoopla's reasons for suspicion of you. What I don't like is the way you defend yourself. Please just explain your motivations and let everyone else do the analysis, explaining your motivations should show that you are town without you additionally having to say that you are town. I still think you are less likely to be scum than either ekiM or Far_Cry, but I am not going to rule you out as possible scum.
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Post Post #87 (ISO) » Sat Aug 08, 2009 7:09 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

semioldguy wrote:What I don't like is the way you defend yourself. Please just explain your motivations and let everyone else do the analysis, explaining your motivations should show that you are town without you additionally having to say that you are town.
I said I was town because Hoopla said she didn't see the difference between lynching me or lynching you, and the difference is that I'm town. It's a silly answer, sure, but it's also true and correct, and I was hoping it would get her to re-think what she was saying, and hopefully get her to help me actually lynch scum today.

Other then that, I'm not sure what you mean by "analysis".
I still think you are less likely to be scum than either ekiM or Far_Cry, but I am not going to rule you out as possible scum.
Ok, why?

Anyway, your whole post there just felt really oppertunistic to me; you saw Hoopla's paranoia of me, and decided to try and prey on it. It just ince
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Post Post #88 (ISO) » Sat Aug 08, 2009 7:10 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

Wow, I didn't mean to hit submit there, hah.

Last sentance that cut off should have been "It just seemed like how I would expect scum to act here, assuming I'm right about Hoopla being town."
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #89 (ISO) » Sat Aug 08, 2009 7:37 am

Post by semioldguy »

Analysis referring to the decision of your motives either being town backed or scum backed. If your defense was the same with the exception of you leaving out the parts where you say you are town or doing what town would be more likely to do I would feel a lot better about you. As in let other players make the decision for themselves what they think your motives are rather than you inserting it into your own posts.

Hoopla's suspicions on you are poor at best. Your defense is worse. If you are going to defend yourself in that manner, I am going to point it out and make note of it regardless of whether or not I agree with the attacks on you, because the defense is scummy.
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Post Post #90 (ISO) » Sat Aug 08, 2009 7:52 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

semioldguy wrote:Analysis referring to the decision of your motives either being town backed or scum backed. If your defense was the same with the exception of you leaving out the parts where you say you are town or doing what town would be more likely to do I would feel a lot better about you. As in let other players make the decision for themselves what they think your motives are rather than you inserting it into your own posts.
Um...why should I not explain what my motives are? Why should I not explain why town should be active and agressive? Town should be, and we'd be better off if more people were; I've been trying to encourage everyone to be more active and agressive, in fact.

I'm not going to pretend I don't know my own alignment, either.


Your defense is worse. If you are going to defend yourself in that manner, I am going to point it out and make note of it regardless of whether or not I agree with the attacks on you, because the defense is scummy.
Explain yourself here. How is my defense "scummy"? How is it "scummy" to simply point out that my actions have been the correct course of action for a pro-town person in my position to take? Why are you claiming a scum would be more likely to do this then town?
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #91 (ISO) » Sun Aug 09, 2009 9:00 am

Post by Hoopla »

Yosarian2 wrote:
That's kind of a defeatist attitude. It really dosn't take that much to catch scum in a game this small.
Sure, but it is very easy to be wrong, and at the end of the day, the percentages between random chance and an informed decision is slimmer than most people think. When that question pops up, people automatically cut straight to the memories of when their gut was right, but are more likely to discount times they were wrong.

That isn't important to talk about though - and I'm ready to get on with the game. I'm either going to vote for semioldguy or Yos.

I want Far-Cry to say a bit more first.
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Post Post #92 (ISO) » Sun Aug 09, 2009 10:41 am

Post by Far_Cry »

I've, well, changed my stance on people in this game.

I think that Yos and semi are town, while Hoopla and ekim are scum.

I've made this conclusion in part by gut feeling. However, some pairs I dont believe can be scum:

Yos and Hoopla: the air around those are hard to explain, but I simply believe that both of them can't be scum.

Semi and Yos: There attacks on each other may be scum trying to fool town, but this strategy seems unlikely.

Semi and Hoopla: This is a possibility and I won't forget about it; however, I believe that ekim and Hoopla are a more probable pair.

Ekim and Semi: Highly unlikely, as I've stated before.

Ekim and Yos: Another slight possibility, 1 that I will consider.

I will try to do some further analysis.
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Post Post #93 (ISO) » Sun Aug 09, 2009 10:48 am

Post by Far_Cry »

Hoopla and ekim haven't talked about each other, and the way they have been playing this game makes me think their scum.

Ekim also said I did something "fairly townish." Then, some posts later he votes for me, without talking much about me in those in-between posts.

So, I need to ask a few questions to some people.

@Hoopla: What do u think about ekim?

@Ekim: 1. What do u think about Hoopla?
2. Can u please clearly tell me why u voted for me?

@Semi: Who is you biggest suspicion?

@Yos: Who do u find most suspicious?
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Post Post #94 (ISO) » Sun Aug 09, 2009 1:46 pm

Post by Yosarian2 »

Far Cry: I still think the scum are Ekim and Semi. I think it's possible you're scum, but I think your actions look a little more pro-town then either of them.

I still am pretty convinced Hoopla is town, which is why I'm trying so hard to convince her I'm town. If she is town and she goes ahead and votes me, I'm probably going to get lynched today as the two scum jump on. And that's really bad; note that if a town is lynched day 1, the odds of scum winning are something like 83%. :(
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Post Post #95 (ISO) » Sun Aug 09, 2009 1:57 pm

Post by Yosarian2 »

Also, Far Cry, I think a hoopla/Ekim scumgroup is very unlikely, even regardless of my town read on her. If Hoopla was scum, and semioldguy was town, I do not think she would have removed her vote on him when I put semioldguy at lynch -1. There would have been no reason for her to do so; all she would have had to do was be quiet, say noncommittal things, and wait until someone else would hammer semioldguy (either a townie or her scumbuddy), and she'd get a townie lynched and wouldn't even look bad in the process; all the blame would probably go to either me or the person who hammered.

No, the only way Hoopla could be scum here, I think, is if she was scum with semioldguy.
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Post Post #96 (ISO) » Mon Aug 10, 2009 3:10 am

Post by ekiM »

Yos wrote:Because at the end of that paragraph, you seemed to have concluded he was scummy, and this "anti-town action" was the strongest point you seemed to have against him.
Here is the full paragraph:

"Eurf, I don't like SOG's V/LA. I guess it's not an alignment tell but it is awfully anti-town to be AWOL for a week right near the start of a game, especially a short one like this set-up. He's still harping on my suggestion to be cautious with our votes, which I don't really think was a big deal. He's not expressed suspicion of anyone else, either."

If you can't read that then I can't help you. Just stop misrepresenting me.
Yos wrote:
ekiM wrote:The main question was "do you know whom Hoopla suspects?". When I asked, did you?
No, at the time, i didn't. Then again, for the first few pages in the game, I didn't really know who anyone suspected, until I started taking the lead and demanding answeres from everyone. You included.
Ah. but at that point you
hadn't
demanded anything from Hoopla. You called her town and then stayed the hell out of her way. That's my point. You're not doing it since I pointed it out, but you were avoiding her.
Far_Cry wrote:I've, well, changed my stance on people in this game.

I think that Yos and semi are town, while Hoopla and ekim are scum.

I've made this conclusion in part by gut feeling. However, some pairs I dont believe can be scum:

Yos and Hoopla: the air around those are hard to explain, but I simply believe that both of them can't be scum.

Semi and Yos: There attacks on each other may be scum trying to fool town, but this strategy seems unlikely.

Semi and Hoopla: This is a possibility and I won't forget about it; however, believe that ekim and Hoopla are a more probable pair.

Ekim and Semi: Highly unlikely, as I've stated before.

Ekim and Yos: Another slight possibility, 1 that I will consider.

I will try to do some further analysis.
This isn't analysis. You're barely giving any reasons at all.
Far_Cry wrote:Ekim also said I did something "fairly townish." Then, some posts later he votes for me, without talking much about me in those in-between posts.

Can u please clearly tell me why u voted for me?
What is it with this game and people having trouble reading?

"Far_Cry's lampshading of his error came off as pretty townish to me, but
his efforts since then aren't very convincing. He's being fairly wishy washy and not giving much in the way of reasoning.
"

"Vote: Far_Cry. Read him in iso.
He hasn't given a single reason for anything, all game
."
Far_Cry wrote:What do u think about Hoopla?
She's bottom of my suspect list. She hasn't really done anything much I've found suspicious.
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Post Post #97 (ISO) » Mon Aug 10, 2009 3:23 am

Post by ekiM »

Yos wrote:Also, Far Cry, I think a hoopla/Ekim scumgroup is very unlikely, even regardless of my town read on her. If Hoopla was scum, and semioldguy was town, I do not think she would have removed her vote on him when I put semioldguy at lynch -1. There would have been no reason for her to do so; all she would have had to do was be quiet, say noncommittal things, and wait until someone else would hammer semioldguy (either a townie or her scumbuddy), and she'd get a townie lynched and wouldn't even look bad in the process; all the blame would probably go to either me or the person who hammered.
This doesn't make any sense to me. Why would L-1 attract no attention, especially after the discussion we'd had about it?
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Post Post #98 (ISO) » Mon Aug 10, 2009 4:43 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

ekiM wrote:
Yos wrote:Because at the end of that paragraph, you seemed to have concluded he was scummy, and this "anti-town action" was the strongest point you seemed to have against him.
Here is the full paragraph:

"Eurf, I don't like SOG's V/LA. I guess it's not an alignment tell but it is awfully anti-town to be AWOL for a week right near the start of a game, especially a short one like this set-up. He's still harping on my suggestion to be cautious with our votes, which I don't really think was a big deal. He's not expressed suspicion of anyone else, either."

If you can't read that then I can't help you. Just stop misrepresenting me.

:roll:

I'm pretty sure anyone reading that paragraph could see that you were trying to express suspicion of SOG, but in a weak, wishy-washy way, and you never actu. Perhaps it was distancing, trying to make us think that you two weren't connected? I don't know. The whole paragraph just seems odd to me.
Ah. but at that point you
hadn't
demanded anything from Hoopla. You called her town and then stayed the hell out of her way. That's my point. You're not doing it since I pointed it out, but you were avoiding her.
Eh? IF I decided she was likely town, why would I feel the need to interregate her?
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #99 (ISO) » Mon Aug 10, 2009 4:46 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

ekiM wrote:
Yos wrote:Also, Far Cry, I think a hoopla/Ekim scumgroup is very unlikely, even regardless of my town read on her. If Hoopla was scum, and semioldguy was town, I do not think she would have removed her vote on him when I put semioldguy at lynch -1. There would have been no reason for her to do so; all she would have had to do was be quiet, say noncommittal things, and wait until someone else would hammer semioldguy (either a townie or her scumbuddy), and she'd get a townie lynched and wouldn't even look bad in the process; all the blame would probably go to either me or the person who hammered.
This doesn't make any sense to me. Why would L-1 attract no attention, especially after the discussion we'd had about it?
It might, but SHE wouldn't have risked getting attacked for it. I would have, because I was the one putting him at lynch -1. If she was scum, and semioldguy was town, then all she would had to do was not post, lurk for 48 hours or so and see what happens, see if someone else hammered semioldguy or if I get attacked for putting him at L-1 or whatever. Her unvote is not what I would have expected her to do there, if she was scum and semioldguy was town.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie

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