/in-Vitational Game 5, Simon Mafia 2: Game Over before 832

[Patrick]

Vote: Battousai
FoS: Lord Gurgi

[Patrick]

It's unlikely DDD is deliberately avoiding the game, so can't see much point to the wagon on him. Not getting a malicious vibe from it either, though.

Gurgi, how serious are you in accusing Batt of chainsawing? I can't quite tell.

Unvote

[Patrick]

Vote: Nuwen

[Patrick]

How? That's not the feeling I got from his posts at all. He seems to be one of the more involved players so far, so I wouldn't say lazy, and I don't think there's anything wrong with waiting for more before voting.

[Patrick]

The floor system makes it entirely possible to "protect" a slew of players, with the caveat that they can still be killed by another person on their floor. A death on a locked floor means that someone on that floor has killing abilities, barring the intervention of a bellhop.

I interpretted the rules as saying that anyone on a locked floor can't take an action at all, even against someone on their floor.

Mod, when you get back, can you clarify this?

Still not finding Batt scummy, but want to see him respond.

[Patrick]

Got a bad vibe from 66 because he seems like one of the least opportunistic and lazy players so far in the game. She made alot out of what seemed to me like a pretty harmless, "I want to hear more from them before choosing a vote" type comment; I've done that plenty of times myself.

Will think on the floor claiming plan.

[Patrick]

I dislike the fact that Patrick's exposition only came AFTER his two word vote post, but for now his voting reason, while I disagree with it, is solid enough for this stage of the game...

I do it from time to time, just to see what happens. Now you mention it, I remember debating this with you in BSG. Do you still think originally unexplained votes are more likely to be made by scum?

The possibility of the bellhop being scum makes this plan risky, I think. Claiming floors without going for the bellhop part is possible, but does have the downside of allowing scum a guaranteed nightkill, whereas if people's floors stay hidden there's a chance of the nightkill failing. Of course, the same is true of town poweroles picking their targets. My hunch about PJ is that he wouldn't make a game that can be broken on day 1, but I'm open to arguments if there's some other advantage to claiming now.

[Patrick]

I'm under the impression that the Bellhop can't do his business if he's on the safe floor. Is that wrong?

No, the Bellhop PM says that it can use it's ability even if on a safe floor.

Eh, maybe I'm being thick, but I still don't see how the plan suggested covers us against the possibility of there only being a scum bellhop. If we get only one bellhop claim, we're going to treat that player as confirmed? Also, if we have two town bellhops, it seems like we'll end up lynching them both under this plan when they counterclaim each other.

DDD, what's scummy about Zazier?

Mod

: Please prod Zazier.

[Patrick]

@Goat, reading your plan, it actually makes pretty good sense and I think I could be on board with it. One thing that could be a problem is a scum bellhop potentially moving scumbuddies off the safe floor without us knowing (doesn't really screw the whole thing up, but we'd need to be aware of this when making assumptions).

Llama, can you link to a past situation where you've taken a similar stance towards setups?
Elmo, what was the point of your last question? Did the answer surprise you?
Nuwen, thinking about it, your reasoning for finding my behaviour slightly town is similar to what I thought about Batt's first few posts. Do you think his initial vote was an easy location for a scum vote?

At this point, I feel I have very little in the way of reads on people, and I think it's partly due to the slow start of the game and partly because most of our talk recently has been about mechanics. By all means give your opinions on this plan so we can decide whether to move forward with it or not, but we need to be pushing other lines of enquiry at the same time.

Mod

: Did Zazier get prodded? His avoiding the thread is getting kind of ridiculous.

[Patrick]

DDD is my strongest town read.

Can you explain this read? I wasn't keen on most of his 188 either.

More from me tomorrow when I get time after work. I think the bellhop claim is more likely to be town, and can confirm that FL is reckless as town =/

[Patrick]

I like Goat's observation. Don't think it's quite as strong as he thinks, but it makes me feel better about his alignment.

DDD, as far as I know, it's against site rules to carry grudges from game to game.

What does this have to do with alignment? I don't quite get why you said this.

Unvote: Nuwen

[Patrick]

If he's in other games with Spy, that could easily explain why he only reacted against Spy, though I haven't yet checked to see what his problem with him is.

I don't see why you would find the suddeness of his reaction scummy; it came in his next post after Spy voted him, which seems pretty natural. That line of attack seems rather contrived.

Hi Elmo.

[Patrick]

What does this have to do with alignment? I don't quite get why you said this.
Unvote: Nuwen

???

Feel free to say something.

I don't see what's so appealing about wagoning LlamaFluff. His attitude towards breaking setups is at least consistent, and I can empathise with the boredom caused by the setup discussion, so I don't see why he's more likely to be scum.

We got chronic invitational syndrome. Fitting, but in addition to being busy, I'm terribly uninspired and not really helping. I'm considering saying we shouldn't be lynching Danny, because that wagon's been going for a while, and no-one seems interested in an alternative.. but there's been like half the game voting for someone with only their vote on. We need to wagon a bit. Deadline now scares me, because this will be like the least informative day evah.

This reads oddly no matter how many times I look at it. It seems like you first say maybe we shouldn't lynch him, then kind of go back on that slightly (though I'm unsure on this), and mention that we need more wagoning, whilst still keeping your random vote on a player with only one vote. Do you think DDD is more/less likely to be scum? If you want a wagon, who's a good choice? Saying nobody seems interested in an alternative seems rather defeatist half way through the day when there have been some other suspicions thrown around. Yes, it's been a weak and dull start, but you don't seem to be scumhunting even in the minimalistic way you sometimes do as bored town. Do you have opinions on alignments other than FL? Eh, I didn't get a good vibe from that post.

TDC: Who are your suspects at the moment?

I'll try to get a better understanding of the argument of TDC/Gurgi later. It was unfortunately pretty impenetrable on my first read.

[Patrick]

As for saying something, I'd like to know why so serious the Nuwen unvote

Just didn't find her scummy anymore.

Meh, I still don't dig Gurgi's plan, but it all fits together. Don't really have anything better. Interested in what Zazie will have in the promised post, though.
Who are your suspects?

Elmo is one I'm considering, dependant on his next few posts. I have a few bad vibes from you because you don't seem curious about alignments and maybe Gurgi for his overreaching attack on DDD though the rest of his play looks fine to me. I'm slightly suspect of the Zazier's disappearance, but it seems minor and not really worth a wagon.

I'm a little surprised that "lack of scumhunting" is being thrown around a fair bit with no mention of Elmo's name. Is there any particular reason for that? (Not addressed to TDC in particular)

[Patrick]

I have two impulses here. The desire for information you've been incredibly cagy about makes me want you to elaborate or I'll vote.

I voted her early on based on a post that gave me bad feelings, since then they've gone away because the rest of what she's saying seems sensible enough and her reaction was ok, and she voted Gurgi at pretty much the same time that he made a couple of posts that bothered me as well.

The other impulse is I don't like seeing thought processes behind how you clear someone town because then it becomes invalid in the future.

Many town signs don't become invalid in future even when explained. I haven't cleared her as town though.

My tendency to tunnel for me...I actually haven't really noticed Elmo.

That's kind of what worries me.

[Patrick]

Patrick: I'd really love if people could tell me what they're suspicious of rather than just telling me that I am. I'm all for unexplained votes, but I can't defend against something I don't know about. I'm pretty sure I've explained why I was still pushing for the colour-claim, what else is there?

The way that you tried to turn DDD's reaction to Spyrex into a scumtell didn't pass the smell test (for me). You made two arguments against him: that the suddeness of his reaction was scummy and that he was scummy for only retaliating against Spyrex; neither of which I think are valid, as I explained at the time. Also, attacking particular people who are attacking you is not scummy if there are differences (in this case, I believe the difference is that he was annoyed with Spy elsewhere). At most, it seems like you could slap him on the wrist and tell him not to hold grudges, but you actually painted it as scummy. I thought I'd made my reason clear in my 282, but maybe I've been too lazy explaining myself lately; I'm feeling pretty apathetic with mafia and might semi-retire after this game. I think I was clear enough that I don't have a problem with your colour suggestion, and in fact it may even be slightly town since people who try and break setups are more often town, though I do think it's been bad for the momentum of the game.

There's plenty of time before deadline, though you can be assured I'll have a vote out well before. I don't have a strong read of DDD right now though I see that he hasn't contributed that much to the game. Is there something specific you feel makes his undercontribution worse than say Elmo or Zazier?

[Patrick]

Mostly Elmo and ZazieR aren't doing anything. That has a small negative effect. The other folk are just shooting things down. In my eyes, that's more unhelpful.

Elmo seemed to slightly shoot down the DDD wagon without suggesting anyone else. I actually thought he was one of the people you were referring to in your last post.

Nyeh, you saw it in BSG to an extent

In BSG it always seemed more like he was trying to accomplish something, even in more bored moments. So far it's not clear to me what he was trying to accomplish in his last post, other than perhaps making a post.

[Patrick]

unvote Thank you so much for reminding me. Not having a vote out at all (Hi, Patrick), is so much more helpful than sitting on the random vote.

I'm curious as to why you said this. On the surface it seems like a cheap shot because I don't think my play is comparable to yours even though I'm currently not voting. For the record I'm weighing up you and Elmo, and feel better about Gurgi as I think he's genuinely been trying to help the town recently by finding us some kind of direction. I've not read a game where he was scum, though.

Still not concerned about FL, I think a scum bellhop would have been more likely to stay hidden so as to avoid cooperating with a town plan (and to sabotage it if a town bellhop existed). We just need to be aware that if FL is a town bellhop, a scum one could still be moving scumbuddies off the safe floor (which is why we should be putting town players on there, not scummy ones imo).

Mod

: Is Zazier in prod range? If not, please prod him as soon as he is.

[Patrick]

Gurgi, what leads you to having a town read on TDC? Also, can you please link to your two most recent completed games as scum? Ta.

Regarding the colour claiming discussion, I'll give it another read tomorrow because my eyes have started glazing over, but I didn't see anything particularly bad about how Gurgi suggested and justified it. I think the advantages of colour claiming are that our power roles know who to target so that they won't fail, and that FL if she's town doesn't risk failing to move someone to green floor by targetting someone who's already on green. I think these are outweighed by the advantage of possibly making scum fail a kill at the moment, because in the current parity scum failing a kill amounts to an extra lynch for us. I don't think the suggestion to colour claim is so outrageous that it warrants suspicion though. Is there something scummier about Gurgi suggesting a sub-optimal strategy than Nuwen suggesting a sub-optimal strategy?

[Patrick]

Vote: Elmo

. Not waiting any longer, and I think he's the most likely to be scum at the moment. I can't shake the feeling that his last post isn't like anything I've seen him post as town before, and more consistent with his scum behaviour of posting words but saying relatively little. I admit this only a feeling based on one post made in the small hours, but he's given nothing else to judge him on. I want to see substance from him and quickly.

The Zazier thing is meh. I've never played with him and the only meta I have was a friend telling me before the game that he tends to either flake or spam the thread up. I don't have an alignment meta, though. I don't think he's much higher than average odds of being scum and don't see his behaviour early on as anything unusual.

I've reread Battousai and found myself agreeing with what Goat said about him. After starting actively he's seemed more and more in the background, and alot of his reasons for suspicions are borrowed from other people. I'd like both Battousai and LlamaFluff to respond to this:

Is there something scummier about Gurgi suggesting a sub-optimal strategy than Nuwen suggesting a sub-optimal strategy?

Also dislike Battousai's vague support for the "trap" being scummy, it seems like he only got interested in this when other people attacked Gurgi over it.

Town reads: forbiddanlight, and Goatrevolt with less confidence. Considering Gurgi for this category too but I keep waffling over it. I don't think he should be lynched though.

[Patrick]

Fun time question that Patrick probably should ask: Why are we lynching ZazieR and not Elmo?

Maybe you could talk about this as well, as a Zazier voter. Do you have a preference between the two?

[Patrick]

First can be a valid reason close to deadline but doesn't say anything about scumminess. The second needs explaining. I will throttle you if you tell me you don't want to lynch someone on day 1 because they're a good player.

[Patrick]

So do you consider it inevitable that either you or Zazier will be lynched at this point? Or do you find him scummy? I don't understand that vote at all.

[Patrick]

He's certainly helpful to have around if he's town, though that's a bad reason not to lynch someone. How is he helpful to have around if scum?

[Patrick]

The wagons on Battousai and Gurgi weren't unfounded. You can disagree with the reasons (as I do), but they were reasons given. If what you're saying is that the reasons are/were entirely bad, surely that leads to an opinion?

This is basically a semi-random lynch, which (given the lack of info) is the logical move; I just think anyone seriously claiming I'm scummy is daft.

So do something. I think your complete failure to look for scum is scummy, and in my arrogance claim that I'm not daft either. If you're town I think I'm infinitely more likely to get a better read on you if you contribute normally rather than trying to downplay almost all the content in this game as useless. If the majority of people can get reads, then you certainly can.

[Patrick]

On an unrelated note, Nuwen's posting is too stop-start for my liking. DDD is probably due a prod too.

Mod

: Please prod Nuwen and DDD. And Zazier, as usual.

[Patrick]

What exactly characterises my "complete failure to look for scum"?

I just don't see you doing anything useful. Even when you caught up you only had an opinion on one person's alignment (or two if you were in fact stating a mild town read on DDD), and I don't see how you were trying to get any more. You only seem to have started doing anything today. I got a completely different vibe from your play is BSG, and I can't think of a game where you've played in this manner as town. If you think that's wrong then please link me to one where you've played similarly and I'll look.

[Patrick]

And that's the funny thing. Even though you were unhelpful in the game, particularly in early stages, I still recall having a much better idea of what you thought of the game, and even what you were trying to achieve in places.

I think you were trying to avoid an early nightkill, and your flippant and unhelpful play early on seems different to here.

[Patrick]

That was addressed to Elmo, in case of any confusion.

[Patrick]

And you honestly think a competent scum player would so blatantly ignore the game and draw attention to himself through non-contribution.

In Satin Doll Showdown he did very little on day 1 as scum, and drew attention through non-contribution. I don't think it's unlikely. Are you clearing Zazier based on similar reasoning, or does this only apply to good players?

Haven't finished catching up and I feel a narco-nap coming on, but I'm not supporting what appears to be a near-policy lynch and I need to weigh in on everyone supporting it

BULLSHIT. I don't policy lynch people, I don't settle with lynching people who are annoying me, I want to lynch scum. I vote people who I think are acting in a scummy way. You're free to disagree, but you're clearly not reading my posts if you're branding this as policy. Wow. People tried to turn off the wagon on him in the game I've linked to in exactly the way you're doing now.

I need to go and eat dinner, I've hung around far too long. The most annoying thing is I'm starting to believe him. I really don't like what Nuwen just chimed in with, but I need to think about this.

[Patrick]

Patrick: In Satin Doll, I was genuinely V/LA, though. I told you that post-game. "Lynch Elmo if V/LA" probably isn't a good play? (Glork was essentially right to complain about the wagon, seeing as it was started by scum and was 50% scum at lynch, imo. But we debated that already <_<)

I remember you said you were ill around the time. I think I was less inclined to cut you slack for it when you offered to replace into another game, and your illness didn't prevent you posting, though perhaps not at your best. In any case, I don't think blatantly ignoring and not contributing can be considered a town sign for competent scum players and I find it easy enough to imagine you doing it as scum. Glork said the wagon on you was for the fact that you started slowly and didn't contribute enough which was blatantly false since I stated several times I found you scummy for playing differently to how you do as town. Equally I find it annoying and possibly scummy than Nuwen comes in and trash talks the wagon on you without apparently reading what it's about.

Who are your top partner choices for Elmo?

I haven't though about it much. I suspect you and Elmo aren't scumbuddies and that if you're scum it's more likely your defending someone you know is town. That's based on experience of how I think scum interact. Lord Gurgi caught my eye because not wanting to lynch Elmo because "he tends to be helpful as either alignment" seems like a very bad reason, but thinking about it I'd say if he was scum with Elmo he'd have been less likely to draw attention to his Elmo-support with something like post 429. Pretty much anyone else could be a scumbuddy of his if he flips scum, I think. Why did the idea of scumbuddies suddenly become so important?

Gurgi, you've been here long enough to know that scum defend townies plenty. And why keep calling it random? That's annoying. I've stated multiple times why I voted Elmo, and I think FL has as well, so you can disagree with the reasons but don't keep saying they don't exist.

At this point, I'm in a state of flux, and probably shouldn't have left it until half three in the morning to make this post. After this evening I'm less comfortable with the idea that Elmo is scum, and am unsure on who to lynch. A Zazier lynch is looking kind of likely at the moment, which isn't something I'm overely excited about though he's quite possibly scum. Nobody put him at lynch-1 while I'm asleep, I think we can get more out of today.

[Patrick]

Two pages ago Elmo was surefire scum. Sup sheeple.

I don't think anyone has ever said that. I found him more likely to be scum but never surefire, or I'd have been calling for his head alot harder than I have been. I've been more interested in getting more out of him because I don't think I've ever misread him and I can usually get a good read with enough material, which he hasn't been giving us. It's a shame he didn't get involved earlier, but late is better than never.

The Gurgi-Elmo-Nuwen trio is such a load. Do you people even think before you guys post?

Who is that addressed too? I think only forbiddanlight has suggested this.

[Patrick]

Obv me. Also, I thought Nuwen unvoted Gurgi awhile ago. Cause I remember asking about that...or was it Gurgi voting Nuwen...

It seemed to address multiple people. I'm only really pointing it out in case she read my post quickly and thought I was suggesting that scum trio.

Nuwen's recent post looks better, on a first read. Now I really am off to bed.

[Patrick]

Gut. I'm not sure I understand that reaction.

[Patrick]

Mod

: What are the conditions needed to replace someone? Has Zazier picked up his prod?

I think the deadline is more than 8 hours since it says September the 1st and my timezone has only just entered August the 31st. I don't think a last minute rush on anyone else is a good idea at this point though, unless Zazier gets replaced which according to the rules would extend our deadline. I still hold minor suspicion of TDC and DDD's play looks mostly passive/sit on easy target all day, but with the amount of not careage from so many people it's hard to tell anymore.

I was kind of expecting more from Nuwen about her thoughts on both the Elmo and Zazier wagons. You seemed to call them both suspect, which casts suspicion on the majority of the game, can we expect your "weigh in on everyone supporting it" before the end of today? Is Lord Gurgi still the most likely to be scum?

[Patrick]

Oh dear.

I really feel this setup favours scum though. The normal 2:10 vanilla setup is maybe balanced, though in practice town has scored badly. This was 3:9 and I don't think town had enough to make up for it; the floor mechanic can stop a kill (as happened here) but the bellhop doesn't seem amazingly useful when scum have their own bellhop and a conseige.

Scum were the only side that deserved to win, and I imagine they would have even with a town powerole or two. Well played to them. I was somewhat suspicious of Batt, but Gurgi and Goat were well off my radar and I don't even think Batt would have been my first choice. The apathy and flaking just killed us here.

[Patrick]

I think this setup actually favours town. The only possible eventuality of locking floors is stopping kills and confirming townies. We would have won yesterday if our kill had gotten through.

I could argue that this just brought alot of distraction to the town, but that's not really the point. The floor locking does help the town -- I don't think it was ever intended to help scum; I'm saying that I don't think it's enough to make up for for a virtually vanilla setup with 3 scum. Scum have two roles that can manipulate people's positions, which limits what town can do with the mechanic. I'm assuming that's why Goat was more than happy to suggest plans based on floor locking.

[Patrick]

Also, lol at people metagaming me. That's pretty much 100% of people who tried that have failed.

X

[Patrick]

More just that people have meta'd you plenty of times successfully. This game, eh. I pressured you for doin nothing, and backed off somewhat after your responses. I don't know what stance I'd have taken if I'd been around later. I'm glad I wasn't. Plus I just had a minute online at the end of the break and felt the need to use the BJ style cross again.

[Patrick]

Vote: Battousai
FoS: Lord Gurgi

Remember this randoming? I'm really sad I didn't stick with it.