Vengeful 5p - Open 158: Game over before 829

[Yosarian2]

Semioldguy flipping goon is throwing me off here. I was sure he was the godfather.

Looking back over his posts...he was attacking eikM for most of the game, pretty hard, and voting for him. He was even doing so while I was attacking eikm and saying I was willing to vote him, and while farcry was expression suspicion of eikM as well. I really don't think he would do that with his godfather.

I think the scum godfather is probably either farcry or hoopla. Leaning towards farcry right now; Hoopla did look town to me yesterday, and farcry's long hesitation in hammering semioldguy yesterday makes hm look bad to me.

Vote: Farcry

That was quick. Especially since u thought i was town not to long ago, and said (in the above post) that u were only "leaning towards me."

If I turn up town, who would u go after? Ekim, I suppose?

I just said that I thought eikM is probably not the godfather; if he was, I don't think semioldguy would go after him like that. I could be wrong, eikM did look really scummy yesterday, but at the moment, I don't think he's scum. I certainly want to hear more form him though.

[ekiM]

First of all, sorry for the delay. Last few days have been crazy. I've re-read the game now.

Also, I notice semioldguy has been at lynch -1 for a while now, with both me and hoopla on the wagon, and he has not been hammered. There is no way in hell that would happen if he was town.

Why not?

Because someone would have hammered. This is especally true from my point of view if I'm assuming Hoopla is town; if I'm right and Hoopla is town, that would mean that if semioldguy is town, that the scum would be you and farside. Which would mean both scum are sitting there, not hammering the townie while posting again and again. What are they waiting for? He's not going to hammer himself, and if they wait long enough, the wagon might switch over to one of them. A townie can't be lynched in this game without at least one scum on the wagon, remember.

Even if I was wrong about Hoopla and she was , there would still have to be one more scum who wasn't voting semioldguy right now if semioldguy is town.

This was well reasoned. The only case ignored is Yos/Hoopla scumteam, which was remote.

Far_Cry, what about the above did you not find convincing? You never commented on it directly; why is that? How come you changed your mind just before I was due to come back from V/LA?

I'm going to think about it but your action make me want to lynch u to.

What "action" exactally, are you talking about here?

Actions, I meant. Your fight with ekim yielded mistakes from both of u, and I'm still deciding who to lynch.

You never expanded on this. Could you do so now? What mistakes are you referring to; why were they scummy?

Awesome.

Ok, we have 2 lynches left to find the last scum. I think ekiM is the most logical suspect now, based on the way he defended semioldguy and attacked me for attacking semioldguy. Only think that makes me hesitate a little is that semioldguy voted him; a goon voting his godfather isn't unheard of, but it's rare and dangerous.

I don't think I attacked you for attacking semioldguy. It was mostly because I thought you were being unfair or disingenuous when arguing with me in a way that felt like bad faith. Having re-read the game I think I was getting more wound up than was warranted.

Nice, at the moment, my two lynch choices are Yos and ekim, mainly based on thinking Far_Cry is the towniest. However, I do owe this game a thorough reread, so I'm not committing to anything yet.

Could you explain why you think Far_Cry looks townie?

My suspects are Hoopla and ekim. Again, a think a reread will be in order here.

Can you give some reasons?

I read one of Far_Cry's scum games when this thread first opened to try and get a handle on him. The thing I noted was how abrasive and committed he was to his feigned suspicions. It seems the opposite here - where it took a few pages to actually talk about anything other than his scum mistake. The 'scum mistake' makes sense, as we now know his early vote was for the goon, but I'm still not buying it.

Can you link those games? Search doesn't seem to be working and he doesn't have a wiki.

---

This questions post is getting pretty long so I'll separate the analysis into another one.

[Hoopla]

Hi ekiM, my up-to-date suspicions currently reside in my 145. I'm basing my reads on a kind of process of elimination. What do you think?

I read one of Far_Cry's scum games when this thread first opened to try and get a handle on him. The thing I noted was how abrasive and committed he was to his feigned suspicions. It seems the opposite here - where it took a few pages to actually talk about anything other than his scum mistake. The 'scum mistake' makes sense, as we now know his early vote was for the goon, but I'm still not buying it.

Can you link those games? Search doesn't seem to be working and he doesn't have a wiki.

Yeah, it was hard for me to find too now - but here, take a look.

[ekiM]

SemiOldGuy Goon & Far_Cry GodFather

If this is the case then they avoided focussing on each other for most of the game, then Far_Scum bussed SOG once his lynch became inevitable. Yos' explanation for why SOG was very likely scum made a lot of sense, but Far_Scum didn't address it. Reading back, I'm not sure why a townie would leave nearly a week before hammering there. It looks more like a godfather being reluctant to hammer his goon, but resigning after failing to find any traction for a different lynch. He hammered just before I came off V/LA, possibly hoping for townie cred for that.

I find it interesting how SOG started listing Far_Cry as his number two suspicion, but never really put him under much pressure or looked at all like he would vote for him. The few questions SOG directed at Far_Cry were pretty gentle, and I could see them as being geared towards helping Far_Cry make himself look better; coaching.

In the other direction, there was his "scum mistake" voting for SOG. He also called SOG "strange" and "suspicious" a lot early on, but never really gave reasons or committed to it. Later he switched to SOG being townie and me and Hoopla being his suspects. He never directed anything other than softballs at SOG.

I did think early on that Far_Cry made sense as godfather, because he was being very timid, not really committing to much and not giving real reasons for those things he did commit to. That's how I'd expect an inexperienced godfather to play in this setup. Having re-read, I don't really see anything to undermine this.

SemiOldGuy Goon & Hoopla GodFather

In this scenario Hoopla decided near the top of Page 5 that the best way for her to win was to bus then. Both myself and Yos had said she looked pro-town, so she hoped to leverage that into a win. I think Hoopscum was in a very strong position yesterday, being generally considered town. It might have been easier for Hoopscum to support a lynch on me or Yostown though; it's so much better for scum to get a town lynch day 1, and I doubt either of us would've shot her. On the other hand, she might have been hoping to cultivate her pro-town image with the credit from contributing to a day one scum lynch, and then cruising to victory over the next two days.

What doesn't make sense to me about that is, her play today. It doesn't look at all like she is pushing for the easier lynches today. I think if she were scum and Yos was town, she'd have tried to stay on his good side and lynch the other two of us with him. Instead she put him at the top of her suspect list. I'm having trouble understanding why she would do that as scum.

Hoopla's early unvote of semioldguy makes sense in either case, really; a godfather taking his goon out of the danger zone, or a townie genuinely wanting not to take the risk. I'm not getting much out of it.

SOG & Hoopla didn't interact very much. I'm not sure what to make of that.

Reading her whole game in iso, she still feels pro-town, but she hasn't actually done as much pro-town stuff as I thought. I also find the uncommented decision to vote for SOG a little odd, she'd mostly been giving good reasons for everything before that. Hoopla, could you explain why you voted for SOG when you did? And why you didn't say much after that until he was lynched?

SemiOldGuy Goon & Yosarian2 GodFather

This would be the hardest bus of all. Yoscum voted for SOG on page 2, putting him at L-1. He then banged the drum for his lynch pretty much all through the day, getting there in the end. It's not impossible that this was a bus, Yos is an experienced and confident player and might have tried his hand at hard bussing to gain town-cred then riding that to victory. This would be extremely audacious though, and I think this is prima facia the least likely scenario.

After reading again, the biggest mark in favor of this theory is Yos' early vote for SOG. As scum, he would know that nobody was going to hammer SOG, and this provided distancing at no risk. However, I thought, and still think, that this would be a very reckless vote for a townie to make. He pretty much bet the farm on his early game read. I find it hard to conceive of being that confident in an early game read. So objectively I think that vote made more sense as scum than as town, unless the player was very skilled and confident as town. At the risk of asking for a re-hash, can you explain again, Yos, why you were confident enough to place this vote?

Yos & SOG interacted a lot, quite contentiously sometimes. Reading it, it doesn't feel forced.

I felt Yos was playing very scummily yesterday but mostly that was frustration with our back-and-forths. Reading it again dispassionately, he wasn't behaving nearly as badly as I felt then. There are a couple of places I still feel he was being unfair, but, especially knowing now that SOG was scum, he looks better on re-read. I think his willingness to re-evaulate things today also looks good. As scum I would have expected him to keep pushing on me.

I also like a lot how he has clearly and firmly laid out his thoughts today and placed a vote. The other two are being a bit more ambiguous. His reasoning all makes sense to me, too.

---

I'd like to hear responses to my questions before placing a vote.

---

One thing that I find odd but don't know how to synthesize into my analysis is how SOG basically vanished from the thread as soon as he was at L-1. His last post is near the top of page 5. A little later Hoopla votes to put him at L-1 (with Yos). A week later almost he was hammered by Far_Cry. At no point in that gap did he post to defend himself or try to move the lynch to someone else. So it looks like he was resigned to going down, and thought it would help his partner if he kept silent. At this point I get stuck and can't figure out which hypo-busser would be helped most by his silence here. Anyone got any ideas?

[ekiM]

Thanks for the links Hoopla, I will give them a look and respond. This is taking a lot longer than I thought it would; I finished lunch an hour ago!

Also, why is it always your birthday?

[ekiM]

I've read that game now and I take your point; in that game he was more forthright and aggressive (although still not giving much in the way of reasoning). I'm leery of taking meta into account when we only have one game to compare with, though; is he playing differently here because he is now town and less sure of himself; because he is the godfather and afraid of slipping; or simply due to natural variation in his playstyle?

I think the most egregious interaction with SOG by anyone was Far_Cry being so reluctant to vote for him after Yos made what was a pretty water-tight case against the possibility of him being town. How strong an indication do you think this datum is? In your summary post (145) you seem to base your read on Far_Cry mostly on this meta, which is itself based on just one game. I think that it's a valid point to raise, but not very strong. Is that really all you have to say about F_C from this whole game?

What do you make of the interactions between SOG & F_C that I discuss in 153?

What do you make of Yos' page 2 vote for SOG? You say that you believe Yos is capable of bussing that hard. Have you played in a game with him where he bussed confidently and early? You also say you can see the pro-town motivation for it, how so?

[ekiM]

This thread needs more ekiM, where are you buddy? Your suspicions are important.

Yes. This game is stalling too much.

You said on Friday that you would re-read this game. Have you done so? What do you conclude?

[Yosarian2]

At the risk of asking for a re-hash, can you explain again, Yos, why you were confident enough to place this vote?

I mentioned this yesterday, it's sort of part of my strategy for a vengeful game; the key thing about a vengeful game is that a very high % of the people in the game are scum; 40% on day 1. If you sit back and wait for someone else to get the game moving, there's a very high chance that they'll be scum and that scum will end up leading the town. If you're town, your best bet is to make your best guess as soon as you possibly can and run with it, to try and lead the town rather then follow; even if you're guessing completely at random, there's still a 50/50 chance you're right (since 2 out of the other 4 people in the game are scum); if you've got a read on someone, if you can do better then random, then you should go for it. I know it looks risky, but I still think sitting back and waiting is more risky for a pro-town person in a vengeful game.

[Hoopla]

Thanks for the quality analysis ekiM, what I didn't really get out of it was your main lynch choice for today and possibly tomorrow. I'll answer some questions you posed me though;

Reading her whole game in iso, she still feels pro-town, but she hasn't actually done as much pro-town stuff as I thought. I also find the uncommented decision to vote for SOG a little odd, she'd mostly been giving good reasons for everything before that. Hoopla, could you explain why you voted for SOG when you did? And why you didn't say much after that until he was lynched?

To be honest, my vote was mostly laid down out of desire to progress the game. I saw little incentive to wait on a bit more information, when I'd mostly made my decision anyway. As for the not talking afterwards bit, it was mainly because I felt I had nothing constructive to say, but when I did I made sure to post it. That really was the only thing of value at the time I salvaged from the exchanges after my vote.

The best point you raised in your analysis was Far_Cry's reluctance to hammer semioldguy. This post is especially telling in that regard.

---

I'm quite confident with my feelings about ekiM, his analysis raised good points and his interactions with semioldguy don't make sense as godfather. From my perspective, I see scum between Yos and Far_Cry - I'd prefer Far_Cry first though.

[Far_Cry]

First of all, sorry for the delay. Last few days have been crazy. I've re-read the game now.

Also, I notice semioldguy has been at lynch -1 for a while now, with both me and hoopla on the wagon, and he has not been hammered. There is no way in hell that would happen if he was town.

Why not?

Because someone would have hammered. This is especally true from my point of view if I'm assuming Hoopla is town; if I'm right and Hoopla is town, that would mean that if semioldguy is town, that the scum would be you and farside. Which would mean both scum are sitting there, not hammering the townie while posting again and again. What are they waiting for? He's not going to hammer himself, and if they wait long enough, the wagon might switch over to one of them. A townie can't be lynched in this game without at least one scum on the wagon, remember.

Even if I was wrong about Hoopla and she was , there would still have to be one more scum who wasn't voting semioldguy right now if semioldguy is town.

This was well reasoned. The only case ignored is Yos/Hoopla scumteam, which was remote.

Far_Cry, what about the above did you not find convincing? You never commented on it directly; why is that? How come you changed your mind just before I was due to come back from V/LA?

I'm going to think about it but your action make me want to lynch u to.

What "action" exactally, are you talking about here?

Actions, I meant. Your fight with ekim yielded mistakes from both of u, and I'm still deciding who to lynch.

You never expanded on this. Could you do so now? What mistakes are you referring to; why were they scummy?

Awesome.

Ok, we have 2 lynches left to find the last scum. I think ekiM is the most logical suspect now, based on the way he defended semioldguy and attacked me for attacking semioldguy. Only think that makes me hesitate a little is that semioldguy voted him; a goon voting his godfather isn't unheard of, but it's rare and dangerous.

I don't think I attacked you for attacking semioldguy. It was mostly because I thought you were being unfair or disingenuous when arguing with me in a way that felt like bad faith. Having re-read the game I think I was getting more wound up than was warranted.

Nice, at the moment, my two lynch choices are Yos and ekim, mainly based on thinking Far_Cry is the towniest. However, I do owe this game a thorough reread, so I'm not committing to anything yet.

Could you explain why you think Far_Cry looks townie?

My suspects are Hoopla and ekim. Again, a think a reread will be in order here.

Can you give some reasons?

I read one of Far_Cry's scum games when this thread first opened to try and get a handle on him. The thing I noted was how abrasive and committed he was to his feigned suspicions. It seems the opposite here - where it took a few pages to actually talk about anything other than his scum mistake. The 'scum mistake' makes sense, as we now know his early vote was for the goon, but I'm still not buying it.

Can you link those games? Search doesn't seem to be working and he doesn't have a wiki.

---

This questions post is getting pretty long so I'll separate the analysis into another one.

Q1: I haven't actually noticed that post before. Yes, what Yos says is reasonable, IMHO.

Q2: Hard to explain. Gut feeling told me that, in general, your guys's argument was somwhat illogical, and sounded suspicious to me. Its gut feeling and hard to explain.

Q3: I've changed my mind. I'm rly not sure who is scum now. At first, I though u moving in and out of the shadows was scummy. I overreacted then; I don't find u as suspicious anymore

[Far_Cry]

I seriously hated this game. I played very badly, couldn't properly answer any of guys's questions, and made myself look like a total noob. Uh.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Vote Count #5

With

4

alive it takes

3

to lynch!

Far_Cry - (1)

Yosarian2

Not voting:

Hoopla, Far_Cry, ekiM,

[/area]

[Yosarian2]

First of all, sorry for the delay. Last few days have been crazy. I've re-read the game now.

Also, I notice semioldguy has been at lynch -1 for a while now, with both me and hoopla on the wagon, and he has not been hammered. There is no way in hell that would happen if he was town.

Why not?

Because someone would have hammered. This is especally true from my point of view if I'm assuming Hoopla is town; if I'm right and Hoopla is town, that would mean that if semioldguy is town, that the scum would be you and farside. Which would mean both scum are sitting there, not hammering the townie while posting again and again. What are they waiting for? He's not going to hammer himself, and if they wait long enough, the wagon might switch over to one of them. A townie can't be lynched in this game without at least one scum on the wagon, remember.

Even if I was wrong about Hoopla and she was , there would still have to be one more scum who wasn't voting semioldguy right now if semioldguy is town.

Q1: I haven't actually noticed that post before. Yes, what Yos says is reasonable, IMHO.

You...didn't notice?

I made that exact argument at least 3 times yesterday in 3 different posts.

[ekiM]

Far_Cry, I find it very hard to believe that you didn't see Yos' argument at all yesterday. It sounds like you don't have a good explanation for your long delay on the hammer, so you're resorting to that.

I really don't like the appeal to emotion in your latest post. You complained the game was stalling, but I see no evidence you've done any thinking about the game at all since then. You said you would re-read the game, but have given us nothing. You've revised your opinions to "I don't know". It looks like you're waiting for a lead to follow.

Vote: Far_Cry

[ekiM]

In post 131 Far_Cry quotes a post with Yos' argument in. I don't see how he could fail to have read it altogether.

[Far_Cry]

Far_Cry, I find it very hard to believe that you didn't see Yos' argument at all yesterday. It sounds like you don't have a good explanation for your long delay on the hammer, so you're resorting to that.

I really don't like the appeal to emotion in your latest post. You complained the game was stalling, but I see no evidence you've done any thinking about the game at all since then. You said you would re-read the game, but have given us nothing. You've revised your opinions to "I don't know". It looks like you're waiting for a lead to follow.

Vote: Far_Cry

I'm stupid scum. You havent figured that out or somethin?

[Yosarian2]

Lol

[Hoopla]

Me lol too.

Vote: Far_Cry

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Vote Count #6

With

4

alive it takes

3

to lynch!

Far_Cry - (3)

Yosarian2, ekiM, Hoopla

Not voting:

Far_Cry

[/area]

[Far_Cry]

Twilight. Ns job guys, and actually try harder to find scum.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

The town, having already killed

one

scum, was eager to lynch the next. Accusations got thrown around onto Far_Cry. Someone mentioned to him an argument someone else had said yesterday, and Far_Cry didn't hear it.

"WHAT?" the town yelled at him.
". . . I didn't hear it. . ." Far_Cry voiced meekly.
"That's utter ridiculous."
"Well, I was think of butterflies and candy. . ." Far_Cry said, staring off into space and reliving his day dream.
"I've had enough, let's lynch him!"

"Let me do the honors," Hoopla said, "It's my birthday, I want to be able to hang the scumbag myself!"

And she did so victoriously.



Well, she really didn't do that, because Hoopla wasn't a scumbag. After searching his body, the town found no evidence of him being mafia. The only thing they found was a drawing of butterflies and candy that he had made himself. With crayon. DUN DUN DUN

Far_Cry, Vanilla Townie, Lynched Day 2

* * *

Also, I'd like to say

Happy Birthday to Hoopla!

[Far_Cry]

O.o You actually caught her REAL birthday.

[Hoopla]

What....?

I took that last post by Far_Cry as a confession of being scum. I probably would have voted him anyway, but still, that was really bad. Far_Cry, you should never just give up.

I'm probably going to vote Yos today, but I'd like to at least hear from the other two before I do anything.

[Yosarian2]

...

Damn. I was sure it had to be far cry, especally after his confession.

I've got a hard choice here. I was sure hoopla was town day 1, but I still don't know how likely it is that likely strangercoug would have gone after his scumbuddy, and the way Hoopla's been talking all game about how she's suspicious of me without ever really being able to explain it beyond "paranoia" seems bad, and convinent.

eikM, what are your thoughts?

[ekiM]

Ugh. False confessions are very bad sportsmanship, Far_Cry.

Hmm, I'm leaning towards Hoopla, but I need to re-read again.