Newbie #840 (Game Over!)

[Sposh]

I suspect both CooLDoG and SpyreX. Mostly SpyreX but I'd like to hear from him about who he suspects first!

[iamausername]

-=Vote Count #10=-

SpyreX (2) - geekalicious, CooLDoG

Not Voting (3) - muh316, Sposh, SpyreX

3 to lynch.

[SpyreX]

Awesome. I come back to one from hammer.

Net set me up for the lynch. I will go back today and parse out his play for actual connections (or, more specifically, the absence thereof).

I'm a little worried about CD. I'm STILL more worried about muh's hammer.

But, it'll take me a bit. Lets not hammer me before I can get my information out, k?

[Sposh]

Do you really think Neto was that smart? To me he seemed easily caught. I don't think someone like that would have foresight to set you up! Still, I await your next post!

[geekalicious]

The question remains is why would SpyrX hammer out NET even if he was his scum buddy. It could have been a matter of sacrifice for the mafia. Maybe SpyrX is not scum. We have to think about this clearly.

It's called bussing and could likely be an attempt by SpyreX to dispel suspicion off of him through having hammered his partner.

[SpyreX]

Ok, time for some analysis on Net.

Namedrops:
CoolDog - 36 (4 of CD)
Darklight - 24 (3 of DLA)
Geekalicious - 4
Muh - 17
Santos - 3
Snow_Bunny - 13 (8 of SB)
Sposh - 8
SpyreX - 3

Now, this is definitely not 100% correct because there IS a lot of interplay in what he was saying (talking to SB about me, etc).

However, it is a starting point for some weird connections. Namely the lower end of it: (Geek, Santos, Sposh, SpyreX) versus the highest (CD, DLA).

DLA being up for lynch makes it make sense. CD STILL is a high-end outlier even with the beginning of the game.

Which makes me think that the obvious connection is the right one. For a few reasons.

Lets look at the interplay between Net and CD:

Coaching (quotes by individual post count)

FOS: Cooldog
I refuse to respect your ridiculous capitalization scheme and question your logic. Care to explain your vote, aside from the OMGUS angle? You seem to think SnowBunny is lurking, when clearly she has posted more than many other players here.

An FoS at this point and then the questioning is a method to coach a partner you see slipping up.

In re: the earlier question - two votes are bad if they are random because it makes it easier for someone to be lynched at random. I should think that this is fairly self-evident.

CooLDoG - if not for inactivity, why your vote for SnowBunny when she already had one on her?

More of the same.

Ok....Sorry about that. Turns out that I have a few moments before my next class. My FoS on you was not a joke, Cooldog.

I'm honestly having a bit of trouble getting to exactly what you're talking about....I just find you to be rather suspicious, nervous and generally odd. Call it a gut feeling.

No time to post the rest of my thoughts - I'll be back after class.

Italics is important here. Especially considering the use of "honestly" from scum and the qualifying language.

I took the quote without the "Don't mess with the family", counting that as a slip of the tongue to mean that he was setting Snowbunny up for a vote as she hadn't said a great deal. Looking at it again, I see that yeah, it's setting up the OMGUS. I wish he'd be a bit more clear about the intent of his posts...My apologies, but I find him to be nearly incoherent.

This serves as a defense for the slip that CD hadn't really covered in a meaningful way.

*sigh* Just unvote. Don't vote no lynch unless you actually want the town to waive their lynch for today.

More coaching.

I never said I wanted no lynch, I said that there is no good reason to put two votes on someone randomly without any real reason. Big difference. Major difference. We need to lynch somebody today....

I'm going to go ahead and Vote: Cooldog, as he seems a bit too reactionary for my tastes. He seems rather nervous and is acting as I would expect a newbie scum to do after a small amount of suspicion was placed on them. Note that I am not wanting a bandwagon on him....yet.

There is a difference in his approach to this vote versus some of the others. Notice the tentative nature of his reasoning (seems) and the outright saying he doesn't want a wagon, yet.

Posts 13 AND 14 are, again, more coaching.

Then we get him defending my "slip" (which was masterful BTW, Net). Until we get this gem:

Sposh, you seem to be avoiding cognitively tackling the issue of cooldog as possible scum. As a side note, if CD does come up guilty, Sposh might be a worthwhile lynch.

I bolded this because I want emphasis here. This statement, after seeing him flip not just scum but the RB, makes a lot of sense:

1.) If CD is his partner, he is creating a tie for a future mislynch as he knows CD would come up scum.
--- The tinfoil hat says that this was setup for the inverse though - that CD is town and Sposh is the partner and its a scenario where because CD IS town Sposh appears to be townier.
2.) It is sacrificing the goon to protect the RB.

Right now, I'm really seeing no downside to voting to lynch CD. Even if he is town (which I feel is ridiculously unlikely), he would be a huge liability in an endgame situation and I feel relatively certain that the scum would never kill him. Therefore, even if we DO lynch incorrectly on him, there's still something of a benefit. Note that I am not advocating lynching a townie, just advocating lynching a scummy player who, even as town, is a serious problem to a town victory.

Now, this gives me pause. A lot of it actually. This, in retrospect, reeks of pre-defending a mislynch. However, notice that finally we have stronger terms of CD being scum (ridiculously unlikely, etc).

Then we get into the attacks on DLA. I'm not posting them now but give it a reread - the terms used are stronger overall than his attacks on CD were.

Then, he ties the two together:

Due to the weird vibe between Darklight and Cooldog, I think that the following situation may have transpired (based on my suspicion of them being a scum pair):

Darklight didn't quite read the whole thread, he only read the page that he was on, in which I do have a number of shorter posts. They do have content, I would maintain, but it makes his comment make a lot more sense. He then proceeded to attack me, so as to be contributing and not seen as a lurker.

Cooldog, who is Darklight's partner, had never played the game before, but knew that he was in a joint win condition with Darklight. He decided that he should stick with and back up everything that Darklight said.

When Darklight attacked Cooldog, he was rather taken aback and backed off of most of the attacks.

Later on, as Darklight gained more and more suspicion, Cooldog decided that a bussing was in order and decided to try to disavow any alliance between himself and Darklight, in hopes of surviving to the end based on his sudden non-association with Cooldog.

This seems like a fairly plausible scenario and would explain the odd play on the part of both Darklight and Cooldog. Of course, it is just suspicion and nothing more...

As we see one half of this pairing (DLA) was false which sets up this entire scenario (CD being scum) to be false as well.

And then we get some more coaching style posts:

Cooldog, cooldog, cooldog.....

Roleclaiming gives us much information. Let's say that the person claims cop or doc rather than town - if that's the case, the real cop or doc can counterclaim. Sure, we lose the power role, but in exchange for a mafia - more than a fair trade. As for DL not having posted in a while, it's only been a number of hours, and we don't expect every single player to check this site every hour on the hour. And yes, you are most certainly next on my list. You're lucky that Darklight made such ridiculous claims today, or it would be your head on the chopping block, most likely. As for other players that we should be concerned about, I'm not convinced that we really need to dig down that far just yet - we have two excellent suspects - should we exhaust those, then I would be more than willing to state my other, far lesser suspicions. I guess I could anyway, if you folks want, but they're really rather tenuous....

Cooldog, I didn't think it was possible, but you did it - you convinced me even further that you're mafia. Good job, kiddo! Your hastiness to lynch is a bit over the top. What did your partner ever do to deserve such a harsh bussing?

Note, here, again - it is setting up a scenario that once proven false makes the total (CD being scum) appear false as well.

Cooldog, we don't want to force a claim until Muh and Santos both evaluate his play and give their opinions. We also don't want to lynch without a roleclaim. If you're not willing to understand the reasonings behind these actions, then I don't know what to tell you - we've tried to explain these several times.

DO WHAT?!?! WHAT DO YOU WANT US TO DO, COOLDOG?!?! LYNCH!?!! FORCE A CLAIM?!?!! HAVE YOU NOT BEEN READING THESE LAST POSTS EXPLAINING ALL OF THIS STUFF?!?!?!

I'm taking a break before I say something I really shouldn't say...

and it goes on and on....

Cooldog, I want to thank you for taking the time to reread. Your last post is also much more coherent.

Try to keep this up for the rest of the game, and you'll be OK.

Italics could very well be a true slip. The rest of "the" game implies him not getting killed.

And then we're at day 2 which looks like more of the same before the cop claim:

CooLDog: Your actions day 1 are rather odd. You first align yourself closely with Darklight, then back off and completely go the other direction. What is your explanation for this? Is it because he started garnering suspicion? It seems that you are rather survivalist - this is generally anti-town. Care to respond to this?

My biggest issue is the simple fact there are

so many

connections there.

But, I will for now do the following:

Vote: CoolDog

(notice I haven't went through his yet, this is just the one sided interplay that doesn't include the issues with his play personally).

I will, next, do a quick summary on the other players.
Then, finally, as I am at L-1 defend this business.

[muh316]

Im a newbie so can someone tell me what namedrops are ( I couldn't find it in the wiki)

[SpyreX]

The other players:

Geek - A moderate stance on lurking is fine. However, when the play has been bordering on lurking is a little bothersome. A defensive-attack on DLA for saying that Net was too involved makes sense (as I would agree) but is also a good spot for correctly defending a partner. Then, 1 post day 2...before the cop claim/cc. And the quickvote start of today. Overall, not impressed.

Muh - I really don't like the hammer. Really, really don't like it. Very apologetic for their mistakes which also rubs me a bit the wrong way. However, the actions AFTER the hammer do feel very genuine. I've gotta lean town.

Sposh - Overall, I lean town. There's a few questionable comments (someone being pro-town just means they are pro-town) but I've gotta go with gut and say town.

Now, as for my defense:

Net set me up solid. Real solid.

However, and WIFOM all you want: if you're CC'ing cop saying the actual cop got an investigation on you - are you going to say that your partner is innocent?

Especially in a newbie game, overall no. The general take (insert surprise) is to assume scum is lying and thusly (as we've seen) to lynch their innocent... which gives their actual scumpartner a solid wagon to sit on without too much concern the next day.

When you look at how much Net was playing for the game as a whole versus short term it makes sense. If he had claimed a guilty on someone I -probably- would have been all over them because that checks out a lot more.

Instead, he took the fact he had been rubbing shoulders with me, added on a fake investigation and chose to let you guys do the rest. Especially when coupled with actual worry by the real cop around my "slip".

It's not a bad lynch to lynch me even though it is the wrong lynch. I'd put money that the scum has hopped on already via play and the fact that it was setup so well by Net.

[CooLDoG]

This last post just seems to show who you think impacts your lynchabilty, and being that way is not very pro-town. Now all of you have a choice 1 lynch me, or two lynch spy. If spy crops up to be scum we win. If he crops up town we will have this:
3 town to 1 scum then we lynch me and we get this: 2 and 1 scum, and the same works if you lynch me first 3 town and 1 scum then 2 town and 1 scum. SO really you have ether me or spyrex. I vote spyrex. Now spy is really edgy about having 2 votes on him, I could not care less since once you lynch me y'all will go and kill off spyrex and win the game. You kill spyrex and you might win the game now, you kill me and you will win the game next day. It is your choice.

[SpyreX]

No, far far from it.

Like I said my concern with you being the scum partner is that its TOO obvious.

I could see Geek via skating through that whole claim-counterclaim and jumping on what Net setup as scum.

I could see Net setting you up for a ML to try and clear Santos. Although I don't have as many problems with his play.

Even with the issues with the hammer I think the thought process is genuine from muh.

The biggest worry I have if I am killed after my flip (and doubled by your statement there) is that you ARE town and thus a power hang tomorrow for the loss of the game.

The fact I haven't been hammered does say something. It makes me a bit more confident in the scum being one of you and geek (although Santos said he WOULD hammer).

The only one I'm betting on being town, which makes me itch, is muh. Santos is a raw gut read.

[SpyreX]

Which begs a few things (the family) comment non withstanding:

1.) Why would you assume your roleclaim (which at this point HAS to be vanilla) would get you lynched for "SCUM".

2.) With Net flipping scum and your weird relationship, your post 14 is very off.

3.) Post 40 - What was the thought process behind "if he claims doc my vote stays".

4.) Post 51 - If you didn't buy his claim, why would you want to give him one more chance?

5.) Post 52 - If you didn't buy his claim, why would you want a confirmation of which role he was? In fact one could say this implies you knew both roles where in the game.

I can do more, but I really don't like the way this is going. As it sits if CD is NOT scum the game is going to be lost, all but guaranteed.

[geekalicious]

Geek - A moderate stance on lurking is fine. However, when the play has been bordering on lurking is a little bothersome. A defensive-attack on DLA for saying that Net was too involved makes sense (as I would agree) but is also a good spot for correctly defending a partner. Then, 1 post day 2...before the cop claim/cc. And the quickvote start of today. Overall, not impressed.

I haven't had time to fully read the rest of your posts yet, but I'll go ahead and respond to this point. As far as the day 2 lynch was concerned, I basically woke up that morning, checked the thread and didn't see anything to comment on, spent the whole morning in lectures, went to lunch, then during my lunch break, saw all that had happened with the Netopalis lynch. The thread basically went too fast for me to even know what was going on during class.

[geekalicious]

SpyreX, first off, I don't like how you basically post and put at least some small degree of suspicion on everyone else before you defend yourself when you're at L-1. Looks like you're trying to displace suspicion as far as possible.

Secondly, your defense lies (by your own admission: "However, and WIFOM all you want: ") mostly on WIFOM type points like whether scum would that CC'd cop would try to clear his partner, and it just isn't striking me as very genuine.

[muh316]

This has all turned into a WIFOM, but when you come to think of it, why in the world would a mafia member try to take down his partner. It makes sense into what SpyrX is saying. Let's just take a risk and go ahead. Well Sposh, the pressure is all on you.
My vote goes to CoolDog.

Vote: CooLDoG

It's all up to you sposh to make the right decision.

[SpyreX]

Because I fully expect to be lynched and I want this out there via tomorrow? And, well, everyone has done at least something to warrant suspicion?

And when the attack is, ultimately, based on what a scum said it IS WIFOM.

I'm really not impressed with the fact your vote is on me and this hedging about whether or not I'm actually scum.

[geekalicious]

Because I fully expect to be lynched and I want this out there via tomorrow? And, well, everyone has done at least something to warrant suspicion?

And when the attack is, ultimately, based on what a scum said it IS WIFOM.

I'm really not impressed with the fact your vote is on me and this hedging about whether or not I'm actually scum.

1) I didn't complain because you posted your suspicions. I complain because you post your suspicions first before you address the issue of defending yourself at L-1 which seems like you're trying to spread suspicion around to try and delay your lynch.

2) If my case against you was just about your potential scum interaction with Netopalis alone, then I wouldn't have a vote out on you. This is about the fact that I think you made a genuine scum slip when you mentioned a "mafia roleblocker" on Day 1.

[SpyreX]

That is going to come back to haunt me.

I was talking about the reasons for lynching versus no lynching and in this setup the best possible outcome is hitting the roleblocker.

I just managed to use the absolute worst wording for it.

Oddly enough, I find that logic backwards. I look at the way Net played me as far more "convincing" (albeit wrong) than a simple slip would.

AND, ultimately as vanilla defending myself IS secondary to getting the information out there. Thus, if something were to happen (such as a hammer) it happens after I give said suspicions and BEFORE I give a defense that didn't change anything.

[Sposh]

At this point, I don't find CooLDoG suspicious enough, but I do find SpyreX a liability. I think we should lynch him.

[SpyreX]

I think its all tied up and in your hands Sposh.

I'm putting money on the scum being one of (Green / Cool). And if its green I think its a scum win come tomorrow.

[geekalicious]

I'm putting money on the scum being one of (Green / Cool). And if its green I think its a scum win come tomorrow.

Green/ Cool....?

[CooLDoG]

sposh you have to make a choice, you lynch the wrong guy and we are still alive yet it we will have to make it right the next day. I hope to know your choice soon...

[Sposh]

Vote: CooLDoG

I don't like muh's rationale behind the vote, and I think geek has been coasting through the game, but I definitely find CooLDoG more suspicious from a rational point of view, whereas Spyre is only suspicious because of what Neto said.

[iamausername]

-=Vote Count #11: The End of Day Three Vote Count=-

CooLDoG (3) - SpyreX, muh316, Sposh

SpyreX (2) - geekalicious, CooLDoG

3 to lynch.

CooLDoG, Townie - Lynched Day Three

-=It is now Night Three. Again, if everyone sends me a PM, I'll end the night early. Deadline for night actions is Saturday, 19th September, though I'm guessing it won't be needed.=-

[iamausername]

SpyreX, Townie - Killed Night Three

-=It is now Day Four. Deadline set for Thursday, 8th October. With 3 alive, it will take 2 votes to lynch.=-

[Sposh]

WHY would someone kill SpyreX? Remember, whoever the other townie is: we're in lylo now, so don't vote unless you're 100% sure about your decision. Now that we're at the end of the game,

all bets are off

as far as I'm concerned! So even if I found you townie/suspicious before, I need to re-read before I make any rash decisions. If I was just going off initial reactions, I'd have to say muh is the final scum. But geek has almost been too under the radar.