Newbie 844 - Game Over (Scum Win)
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Annachie Goon
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Annachie Goon
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- Posts: 507
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Annachie Goon
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- Posts: 507
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- Location: Melbourne, Australia
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Annachie Goon
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Annachie Goon
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This is my second game. The first game mafia/warewolf game I played is on another site, and in day 4. We managed to get all 3 power roles killed by night 2. (Yes we lynched one with the first vote)
As I said before, we need info, and forcing people to vote gives us that info.
Speaking of which:
Just Me, I'm still suspicious of your concern reguarding voting before the replacement was confirmed. For that matter you never really explained you're concern and then voted despite saying that we should wait a few (real) days yet before voting.
To me it sounds like you're one of the scum and that you knew that the replacement was going to be the other.
Then you voted for the fist person that Dondero (The eventual replacement) pointed a finger at while appearing to be random about it. Trying too hard to appear random in my opinion.
Vote just meI try not to sign things. It just encourages people.-
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Annachie Goon
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Annachie Goon
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Our timezone differences perhaps? (GMT+10 btw)
iirc, yes there is a prod after 3 days, but the weekend counts as one day not two. So the prod might not be for a day more than you think at first.
Rugby? Cricket?
No, we need information and the way to get that is via votes, and the reasoning behind the votes. Although no-voting and non-lynch voting are, in a way, information too.I try not to sign things. It just encourages people.-
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Annachie Goon
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Annachie Goon
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Honestly, I'm not sureabout the whole no-lynch thing on the first day. As I said earlier, in the only other game I've played we managed to lynch a power role with the first vote.
It seems that everyone says that lynching someone is good, but I'm not a huge fan on the "school of everyone says". So I'm trying to work it out for myself.
It occurs to me that the scum have a distinct advantage here. They already know who the scum are. So while the odds say that the chance of getting a scum with a first 'day' random lynch is 2/9, it's not going to be random. So the actual odds must be much worse. A random lynch also has the chance of taking out a power role, which combined with the mafia overnight kill, gives them a good chance of taking out 1 of them, and a small chance of both. (I point again to my first game where all 3 power roles were killed by the second 'night')
So if push comes to shove, I'd be in favour of a no-lynch over a random lynch.
That being said, random voting seems to have drawn people out here, along with introductionary type comments, and that is what we need. We need people to talk, to let their opinions be known. So that hopefully we can garnish enough information to make some informed voting and arrive at a non-random lynching.
This presuposes that a mistaken lynching is better than a random or no lynching, and I think it must be. A targeted lynching will usually be accompanied by reasons for the voting from what I've seen. Indeed, voting without reason seems to be a reason to be targeted. Which gives us much needed information. Especially for after we score our first scum.
Random lynching provides us with little information, really only the role of the lynched person.
So, in order of preference, I have arrived at: Targeted or reasoned lynch, no lynch, and finally random lynch.
Oh, and Pyrogen. I have a tendancy to hang around too.-
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Annachie Goon
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Annachie Goon
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I'm comming to my next quandry.
Voting with reason, voting with no reason, and voting with dubious reason.
I'm wondering how each situation can, or should, be interpreed. Especially the latter two since really every vote should be a vote with reason. A vote with dubious reason, to my mind, is scummy and a vote with no reason is suspicious.
But I'm curious of others thoughts on this.I try not to sign things. It just encourages people.-
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Annachie Goon
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Annachie Goon
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lol.
I must admit that several of my posts have been quickie direct responses as I walk past the laptop.
iirc, I laid out my main suspicions in my fifth(?) post and for the moment, still stand by them.
Other than Just Me and Dondero, I would have to look at Pyro and DarthRandal and Xvart purely because they lead the 'unvote' count. (I got told that vote hopping is a sign of scum, and my massive 1 game experience seems to back this up)
If I shifted away from Just Me, at the moment it would be onto Pyro
Haven't got anyone pegged as a definate townie yet to my mind. Not quite sure what to look for yet. Not until lynchings start to happen at least.
Something occurs to me. If 5 votes are needed to lynch someone, 9 people are available to vote, but someone wont vote for themselves so 8 people to vote. 2 scum in the game. It really means that the first vote should include 1 scum with a fair chance of both of them voting. Unless of course we dropped on a scum in which case we will probably see the scum voting for someone else.
Now I think I understand some of the L and L-1 comments.-
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Annachie Goon
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Oops, yes. By vote there I meant the set of 5 votes that will lead to the first lynching. Still geting to grips with the lingo.DarthRandal1138 wrote:Mod:
@Annachie
By "first vote," do you mean the first *lynch*, or are you saying that anyone who places the first vote on someone is likely to be scum?Annachie wrote: It really means that the first vote should include 1 scum with a fair chance of both of them voting.-
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Annachie Goon
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Hmm. now that's some wird argueing. My original vote on Just Me and suspicion of you go back to Just Me's first two posts. To me the way his first vote went just strenghtened my opinion. SOmething I explained in my vote post.Dondero wrote: @Annachie – If I’m cahoots with justme then we have to be the most inept pair of scum this site’s ever seen. I merely raise a couple of queries regarding Pyro’s motives for no-lynch, the vote on him drops from one to zero, and then….justme strikes? Yep, we’re the Laurel and Hardy of mafiascum alright!
And all of that in response to your getting called out for posting a lot yet saying not much.
I think you should go back and look at my first 4 posts.
#1: Saying Hi. First player post in thread too
#2: Response to StartTransmission random vote
#3: Comment on lynching, explained further in a subsequent post
#4: Questions for Just Me
I like your little Laurel and Hardy bit, and your twisted logic. Both of which could be scumtells of their own.-
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Annachie Goon
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Annachie Goon
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Annachie Goon
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They were a comedy duo from the 1930's and 1940's who made funny movies. Lots of slapstick and milking jokes for all they could.
The catchphrase most associated with Laurel and Hardy is almost always misquoted as "Well, that's another fine mess you've gotten me into."
Given that I think that Just Me managed to out both himself and Dondero I find it funny that Dondero described him and Just Me as Laurel and Hardy.I try not to sign things. It just encourages people.-
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Annachie Goon
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Strangely, Hitogoroshi, neither the post to which you refer nor this most recent one actually address the parts that make me think that the way I do. The parts you refered too just add to my suspicion.
Given that little else is making me suspicious at the moment I see little reason to change a vote until something more definate happens.
Though perhaps I should wonder at you saying that I'm completely wrong, since only 3 people (Besides Starkmoon herself) would know for certain.
Hitogoroshi, I notice that you have yet to actually cast a vote, random or otherwise.
(The last vote cast by anyone was Wednesday or about 90 hours ago)-
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Annachie Goon
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hitogoroshi wrote:No, because the entire bit he's referring to isn't a scumtell! Donderro is saying "You're referring to me FOSing but not voting pyro, and justme voting pyro. That's not any sort of scumtell, thus, we'd have to be a pretty inept scumpair to do that!" The crucial difference is that the initial thing that's being 'attacked' actually has no bearing on alignment. Unless you think the random vote WAS actually a calculated response to Don's FOS, in which case, uh, what? that doesn't make sense.
As I've said before, and will no doubt say again, it was Just Me's first two posts that made me suspicious. His seemingly excessive concern about Don being late to start (due to being a replacement and all that).Is that seriously - SERROUSLY - why you're voting Dondero? Because Justme voted someone that Dondero was skeptical about, ergo, they are both scum? Please tell me there's some other part to this whole mess I'm missing.
Given my belief then the following statements and voting et al, especially Don's Laurel and Hardy one, also seem suspicious.
One thing I have noticed is to pay atention to the first few posts as players seem to be more inclined to express too much information or too much concern.
Now honestly, if I believe that two people are scum, rightly or wrongly, does it matter which one I vote for or even if I swap between them?
Our goal as villagers is to lynch the scum, I believe that two people are scum so ergo I vote whatever way I need to to get them lynched.-
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Annachie Goon
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fhqwhgads, perhaps Pyro wants to try and lay traps for people and listing his suspicions might make that more difficult.
Randal, I'll find an avatar and ty and load it. Just for you
Just Me, we probably should have seen that answer a few days ago, but better late than never I suppose.I try not to sign things. It just encourages people.-
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Annachie Goon
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Annachie Goon
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Annachie Goon
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Firstly, what accusations?Pyrogen wrote:
annachie - posts lack content, evades accusationAnnachie wrote:A random lynch also has the chance of taking out a power role, which combined with the mafia overnight kill, gives them a good chance of taking out 1 of them, and a small chance of both. (I point again to my first game where all 3 power roles were killed by the second 'night'
Why assume two power roles? You know there's a roleblocker, huh, and then noticed you screwed up?Annachie wrote:lol, forgot to include the number of power roles in my thinking. Kinda assumed 2 to match the 2 scum.
Secondly, what content is needed? I think I have two people pegged as mafia scum, have laid out my reasoning, and am yet to see anything to change my mind. So really I'm in reading/avoid prodding mode.
Thirdly, well since the first option of the four possible for the game set-up have two power roles it's an easy enough mistake to make to assume two power roles in my reasoning.-
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Annachie Goon
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Annachie Goon
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I bet he did something similar to me, and read the first of the four setup options and kinda read over the latter ones. (Option one has a roleblocker and 2 power roles, option 2 has a roleblocker and no power roles)xvart wrote:
I have a question right back to you about this: How does a roleblocker have anything to do with it? There is a guaranteed two mafia in this game, and not necessarily a roleblocker. Annachie never mentioned anything about the mafia role assignment differences. Do you know there is a mafia roleblocker? And if so, how might that be, I wonder?Pyrogen wrote: Why assume two power roles? You know there's a roleblocker, huh, and then noticed you screwed up?
xvart.
I wonder how long it will take to get a replacement in, and how much we should read into it? If Dondero was indeed a mafia, would someone take up the spot given that until recently Don was on 3 votes? Hell, if Don was not actually a scum would a replacement take the spot given the voting?
or that he figgured that he was going to be lynched reguardless and just quit.xvart wrote:Now I think it is safe to assume one of two things:
Dondero was mafia, blew his cover, and just quit;
Dondero simply didn't have the time to continue; or,
Dondero didn't have the desire to continue.
I would propose then that the longer it takes to get a replacement for Don, the more that xvart's first option is the correct one.
But one thing is certain. That replacements first post will be an important one.
fhqwgads: I'm not saying nothing has changed. But not changed enough to change my mind about Dondero.
Basically I read the first option and assumed the two power roles in the game for all options. I didn't read it properly.I'm not quite following you here.
Sorry, just noticed this. He. Took the name from a Loreena McKennitt song 14 years ago or so.pyro wrote:Anna ... since (s)he-
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Annachie Goon
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Nah, not really.
I stand by my logic on that xvart, even if I did mis-read the game-setup info.
I'm more thinking about the targeted lynch, random lynch, no lynch thing at the moment. With the first night only a few hours away I'm trying to decide how confident people are about their votes and how confident I am about mine.
Or to put it another way, assuming that we get to the required 5 votes, if that lynching would be a targeted or random one.
An assumption that I make/have made is that a random lynching isn't that random as the scum have influenced it.
Then again, being down to 8 at the moment, would we get to the needed 5.
I'm aso thinking about the various comments about giving a replacement a chance to state their own case.I try not to sign things. It just encourages people.-
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Annachie Goon
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Annachie Goon
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Annachie Goon
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Annachie Goon
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But I didn't record the post numbersDondero: VOTE: hitogoroshi
Dondero: Unvote hitogoroshi
For the record,unvote Dondero
fos: HackerHuck, Justme. For reasons given before.
(I'm holding off voting for a day or so to digest HackerHuck's post and see what happens with JustMe's aparent absence)I try not to sign things. It just encourages people.-
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Annachie Goon
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Damn, looks like my first response disapeered. Oh well.
I've stated before that I think that random lynching is the tool of the scum, and this sounds like a call for a random lynch.xvart wrote:In all honesty, I would be happy lynching anyone this first day, ...
Tell me, what is your opinion with reguard to targeted lynching and random lynching?
fhqwhgads wrote:Humor me. What are these reasons again?Annachie P39 wrote:Just Me, I'm still suspicious of your concern reguarding voting before the replacement was confirmed. For that matter you never really explained you're concern and then voted despite saying that we should wait a few (real) days yet before voting.
To me it sounds like you're one of the scum and that you knew that the replacement was going to be the other.
Then you voted for the fist person that Dondero (The eventual replacement) pointed a finger at while appearing to be random about it. Trying too hard to appear random in my opinion.
Actually, the "call out" as he put it was in the no-lynch discussion.Dondero wrote:@Annachie – If I’m cahoots with justme then we have to be the most inept pair of scum this site’s ever seen. I merely raise a couple of queries regarding Pyro’s motives for no-lynch, the vote on him drops from one to zero, and then….justme strikes? Yep, we’re the Laurel and Hardy of mafiascum alright!
And all of that in response to your getting called out for posting a lot yet saying not much
Annachie P127 wrote: The catchphrase most associated with Laurel and Hardy is almost always misquoted as "Well, that's another fine mess you've gotten me into."
Given that I think that Just Me managed to out both himself and Dondero I find it funny that Dondero described him and Just Me as Laurel and Hardy.
Anyway. Since then we have Dondero disapeering.Annachie P135 wrote:As I've said before, and will no doubt say again, it was Just Me's first two posts that made me suspicious. His seemingly excessive concern about Don being late to start (due to being a replacement and all that).
Given my belief then the following statements and voting et al, especially Don's Laurel and Hardy one, also seem suspicious.
One thing I have noticed is to pay atention to the first few posts as players seem to be more inclined to express too much information or too much concern.
I'm not the only one to think that Dondero quit because he thought his cover was blown.xvart P161 wrote:Now I think it is safe to assume one of two things:
Dondero was mafia, blew his cover, and just quit;
Dondero simply didn't have the time to continue; or,
Dondero didn't have the desire to continue.
and now it looks like JustMe has gone as well.
Personally I would like to see the Justme/Dondero situation resolved, which means a lynching of one of them.
In deference to HackerHuck and his willingness to take a replacement spot and taking into account Justme's absence
Vote Justme-
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Annachie Goon
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Hmm, if voting No-Lynch is always anti-town, then why is it even in the game?
A random lynch, that is a lynch with no reasons given or purely for the sake of lynching, is scummy or at least susceptable to scummy manipulatiopn.In all honesty, I would be happy lynching anyone this first day,
is random, therefor anti-town. (Not necessarily scummy, but defiantely anti-town)
As I have said, I'd prefer the Dondero/Justme situation resolved. For most of the time Pyro has had just one or two votes. (And one of them was by Justme)Is there a particular reason you don't want Pyrogen lynched (since he is leading)? What are your justifications for believing that Pyrogen is town. Can you agree that he has acted scummy?
Has Pyro been scummy. {Goes and reads back}
Confusing yes. Not helpful, yes I think so. Anti-town/scummy, I don't know. Too confusing probably. Worth resolving? Ok xvart I think you've convince me that there is much that can be learned from lynching Pyro.
Don't get me wrong, I still want to see Justme/Dondero resolved but I don't see that happening this "day", and the ghist of my arguements is a reasoned/targeted lynch is better than a no-lynch.
unvote justme, vote PyrogenI try not to sign things. It just encourages people.-
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Annachie Goon
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Why?hitogoroshi wrote: I'll be voting Pyro on deadline unless the bandwagon balance shifts to someone else.
1: You don't want to be seen as the hammer, a scummy spot.
2: You don't want Pyro lynched and are trying to avoid someone else placing the 5th vote so that when you 'convienently' forget to vote we get a no-lynch instead.
3: You are trying some weird psych thing to get the votes to shift.-
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Annachie Goon
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Que? Honestly?Kill-kill wrote:I have very scummy-seeming town play--
I'm almost speachless.
kill-kill wrote: but not even close to the front runner:
Annachie.me wrote:Don't get me wrong, I still want to see Justme[kill-kill]/Dondero[HackerHuck] resolved but I don't see that happening this "day", and the ghist of my arguements is a reasoned/targeted lynch is better than a no-lynch.
Jeez fhqwhgads gets mafia ganked, the guy who had voted for me, and then you launch a vote on me right away, AFTER saying that your normal play seems scummy.
What is this, you're going to vote for me before I log in and press you on anything?
vote kill-kill-
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Annachie Goon
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Since people seem to have a thing for Metagaming.
From my first, and until this game only, mafia game.
http://www.ausbowl.com/index.php?name=F ... 25&start=0
Day 2: Second vote, with a few hours
Day 3: first vote, within 40 minutes.
Day 4: First vote, within 30 minutes
Day 5: Second vote, 12 hours
Day 6: First vote, within 30 minutes
If you want to talk meta gaming and such, ie: asking Kill-Kill about his past games, then look at mine.
After day 1, always first or second to vote, and always early.
Oh, and I called Hitorogoshi on dclaring his voting intentions but not actually casting the vote.I try not to sign things. It just encourages people.-
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Annachie Goon
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lol. I get pegged for lurking for talking about the whole lynch/nolynch/random lynch thing, then get done for following it.
Simply put, we need to end each day with a reasoned lynch. At a stretch, a no-lynch will do but worst of all is the random lynch.
I decided that, despite my reservations, a reasoned lynch was better than a no-lynch, that xvart's reasoning was reasonable, and the Pyro lynch had a good chance of happening.
Oh, and I am sticking to my guns on Just Me/Killa-Killa, hence the vote.
My notes wrote: xvrt: Vote: Pyrogen
xvart: Unvote: Pyrogen
Just Me: vote: pyrogen
DarthRandal1138: Vote: Pyrogen
DarthRandal1138: Unvote Pyrogen
xvart: Vote: Pyrogen
Startransmission vote: Pyrogen
Dondero --- Replaced
DarthRandal1138: Vote: Pyrogen
Annachie: Vote Pyrogen
Hitorogoshi vote: Pyrogen
Cut down to the Pyro relevent parts.
Darth, why did you ignore your original vote on Pyro in your summation?-
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Annachie Goon
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Annachie Goon
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Huh.xvart wrote: I personally wouldn't really have a problem with such a quick vote, but the reasoning and justification does not sit well with me since it is based on nothing at all except timestamps and lack of conversation right out of the gate. Highly suspicious.
kill-kill == Just Me
and I've been sus on Just Me since the first page. The person targeted by the mafia, and Kill-kill's day 2 posting does nothing to make me doubt my original suspicions, hence ...-
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Annachie Goon
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Annachie Goon
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You know, I'm not sure I could list the 3 scummiest things about Just Me. It's mostly a sucession of little things. That first(?) post worrying about waiting for a eplacement, and the ... unusual ... answers that resulted. The disapeerance too.
A bunch of little things that I'd like to really see resolved in a fairly permanant way.
Kill-Kill's "I'm a scummy player" is a definate flag though, so that's one.
The many misreads he claims would be a two. But a small two
Three would be having a player and his replacement both hitting the "Scum radar" for people, well for me at least. For different reasons too.
I'd lump StartTransmission a definate "one" with frequent long absences and dodgy explanations.
Not sure of any others. Nothing really stands out
If I can ask, do people think that fhqwhgads was ganked because he was the IC?I try not to sign things. It just encourages people.-
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Annachie Goon
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Well, you are the one trying to hold off the final vote on him, or steer it a different way.HackerHuck wrote:Why don't you just join me and vote for Startransmission? Competing wagons can be a good way to stir up more discussion.
Going back to my typical day 2 newbie analysis... Do you think that it's likely that Kill-Kill and I are the two scum?-
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Annachie Goon
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Hmm, my understanding of the way it works, and this is my first game here, is that the day ends at the normal time, but that none of the voting counts after the hammer gets applied.
Is that wrong?
I suppose I'll find out if Starkmoon locks the thread in a few hours.
HackerHuck, how many games have you played? You sound like a slumming ICI try not to sign things. It just encourages people.-
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Annachie Goon
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Annachie Goon
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This might wander a bit as I add to it during the day
With Hito voting the hammer after this list was written.just me
DarthRandal1138
HackerHuck 1
Annachie2fhqwhgads, Pyrogen
xvart
Pyrogen4 xvart, startransmission,DarthRandal1138, Annachie
hitogoroshi 1 HackerHuck
startransmission
fhqwhgads
Not Voting
hitogoroshi
just me
Then:Kill-Kill (townie) is lynched
Kill-kill4 Annachie, xvart,DarthRandal1138, startransmission
DarthRandal1138
HackerHuck
Annachie
xvart
hitogoroshi
startransmission 1 HackerHuck
Notvoting
Kill-kill
hitogoroshiThis will wander a bit as I add to it during the day
With only 4 people left, not counting myself, 2 of them scum and 3 of them experienced, then we must have 1 experienced player as a scum, and quite possibly both. Since the odds of both SE's being picked as scum at the outset are lowish (1/512) as opposed to 17/512 for one of them being scum)
Which means the NK is being directed by an experienced player.
Since there's a great chance of there being experienced scum I wonder about HH's comment on discussing the NK. Something the becomes aparent at this point of the game anyway.HH wrote:I'll simply say that there's usually not a lot of value in pondering why the scum selected a certain person for their NK. I also don't really see it as helping the scum either, so feel free to discuss. Newbie games are a little different though, because scum though processes aren't always the same as they are with a more experienced group.
The other part I want to think about is the final vote counts:
If HH is scum, then he has managed to not vote the lynch in both votes.
If Hito is scum, then he hammered one lynch and not voted the second.
If Xvart is scum, then he voted in both lynches, persuaded me to vote in one (Though Pyro did more of that himself). Started one and voted 2nd. Not normally scumy vote spots from what I understand.
If Star is scum, then his hammer drops him in it a little, and he was involved in both lynches.
My gut read then is HH and Hito for avoiding votes. (HH's onefinalvote was on Hito)-
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Annachie Goon
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Hito, why would I think "If I am scum then ..." That post was me thinking out loud so to speak.
I wouldn't normally think that both scum could have avoided the trains so easily either but Pyro made it easy and 2 replacements at around the end of day 1 also confuses things. Kill-Kill's "I normally play scummy" is also exceptional. These 3 things are what make me think that Star and xvart are more likely town, and HH and Hito are more likel scum (Just taking the end of day votes into consideration that is)
Off to read DarthRandal's posts some moreI try not to sign things. It just encourages people.-
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Annachie Goon
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Town.hitogoroshi wrote:Yes, but none of us can be so certain that you're town. What I'm saying is, how do YOU think the end of day votes paint you?
I think that xvart's persuasion was obvious, though still a good lynch for the reasons he gave, and my vote on kill-kill was always going to happen. I've been up front with how and why I've voted, and that's got to be a town thing.
(Ok, it might have been KK or HH, but KK made that choice with the way he started)
If I was to pick 3 people to most likely contain the 2 scum ...
Star, HH, Hito.
Star's Hammer.
HH's NK comments.
Hito' Hammer.-
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Annachie Goon
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I know, it does look that way, and I do know better.
I know we should look at L-1 and L-2, the votes before the hammer vote. (and I hope I got the term right.)
First lynch the final 3 votes were Darth, me and Hito. I know I'm town, I know Darth is town so Hito gains a quantum of suspicion
Second lynch the final 3 were xvarth, Darth, and Star.
Again, I know Darth is town, so xvarth and star earn themselves a quantum of suspicion each.
The way Star's vote happened earns another one.
and as someone said, both lynchings that we've had have been unusual to some degree
HH, it seems to me that you were implying that the scum were inexperienced so the NK choice isn't useful info.
What benifit? Well either it's completely random or done for a reason and with 2 people involved in the decision I can't believe it's random. Therefor it's worth trying to figure out the reason. Hence saying to ignore the reasons for the NK is suspicious. (IMO)
There must be an experienced player there so it must be of some significance.
The first one seemed to try to implicate me, the second one seemed to implicate Star. Rookie players might NK people who are targeting them, but I doubt that experienced ones would. (Ok WIFOM but would that work with inexperienced townies?)
Ultimately though, I'm wodering if I should ignore the thinking and play the oddsI try not to sign things. It just encourages people.-
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Annachie Goon
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Annachie Goon
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I admit now I know more about your reasoning Hito.
It's more an assumption that Hammer == suspicion. Just a little bit.
Oh, and Hito. There's a 50/50 chance that you are scum reguardless of any evidence? Not bad odds at this stage considering. (and to be honest, I think it's 2 chances in 3 that you are)I try not to sign things. It just encourages people.-
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Annachie Goon
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Annachie Goon
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Annachie Goon
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Annachie Goon
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At the time Star placed his vote, I was just about to place a vote on either Hito or HH, and I think it was going to be Hito.
Star's vote made me wait a couple of days while I tried to think of the best thing to do, since I thougt that xvart was town, HH was scum, and was'nt sure about the other two.
Had xvart placed that vote I would have followed straight away, had HH then I would have voted HH. But those two ...I try not to sign things. It just encourages people.
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