Newbie 844 - Game Over (Scum Win)

[xvart]

Yeah I think it is time for an official prod on Dondero, if it hasn't happened already. If we don't get a response by the weekend I would feel comfortable switching my vote since this absence, in light of everything that has occurred, is getting suspicious. As I've said, inactivity this early in the game is totally anti-town.

xvart.

[hitogoroshi]

While that's certainly true, xvart, I'd like to add an important caveat - it is incredibly important not to babble. Activity in the beginning of the game is pro-town, but talking for the sake of talking only helps scum.

Of course, this also makes it a bit of a nasty cycle because if no one is posting content no one can comment on it. :/

[xvart]

While that's certainly true, xvart, I'd like to add an important caveat - it is incredibly important not to babble. Activity in the beginning of the game is pro-town, but talking for the sake of talking only helps scum.

Of course, this also makes it a bit of a nasty cycle because if no one is posting content no one can comment on it. :/

Of course; I agree. Content > babble > nothing.

xvart.

[just me]

yes, I have something to say. the reason for that, maybe controversial post xvart has just pulled up again is this: I thought that if we voted before everyone was in, it would keep somebody (possibly, though not necessarily a wolf) out of the limelight than what would be good for the 'village' as a whole. and, I thought if we didn't jump into things straight away, we could get some justified opinions and have a slightly higher chance of getting a mafia member.

If the games started with a night phase I could see your point, since anyone late on the night phase could be mafia or power town role and have a night action. But since there was no night phase to begin with I think it is moot, which I think is what you are saying. Even so, given that a late comer is mafia, we might as well scum hunt the other one in the meantime, right?
xvart.

yes, but the probability of getting one would be higher if there were 2 mafia members playing

[Pyrogen]

No one really seems THAT scummy, but here is my list after a reread, based mostly on gut feelings:

From least suspicious to most:

xvart: Town, most likely
DRandal: Town, likely

Dondero - Neutral, but MIA (kinda town read on his few posts though)
Justme - Neutral. You'd think he'd wouldn't call werewolves mafia if he got a mafia pm (unless he's really tricky and that mall thing was a message to his partner, again very tricky[but WAY too obvious]). Still, posts little content and evades accusations.
hitogoroshi- neutral, doesn't sway me either way
Star-T - Neutral, no substantial posts.

fgads - Just seems too cautious to be town. Also acts more loose from his meta. Just a hunch really.

annachie - posts lack content, evades accusation

A random lynch also has the chance of taking out a power role, which combined with the mafia overnight kill, gives them a good chance of taking out 1 of them, and a small chance of both. (I point again to my first game where all 3 power roles were killed by the second 'night'

lol, forgot to include the number of power roles in my thinking. Kinda assumed 2 to match the 2 scum.

Why assume two power roles? You know there's a roleblocker, huh, and then noticed you screwed up?

[fhqwhgads]

Mod: Dondero prod, please

While that's certainly true, xvart, I'd like to add an important caveat - it is incredibly important not to babble. Activity in the beginning of the game is pro-town, but talking for the sake of talking only helps scum.

Of course, this also makes it a bit of a nasty cycle because if no one is posting content no one can comment on it. :/

Yes and yes.

yes, but the probability of getting one would be higher if there were 2 mafia members playing

If we are going to play the probability game, I should point out to you that the probability of the last member to join being mafia is 1/9. Very good odds he might be town, meaning that if he was late the chances would be BETTER to find the two mafia in the remaining eight.

@Pyrogen: Meh, I don't like using meta, but I suppose you are welcome to use it. Not really much I can defend in your mild accusation though.

Atm I'm waiting for the Dondero post/replacement. Annachie is also pretty high on my list. Many short content free posts = active lurking.

[starkmoon]

just me
DarthRandal1138
Dondero 3 fhqwhgads, Annachie, DarthRandal1138
Annachie
xvart
Pyrogen xvart
hitogoroshi
startransmission
fhqwhgads 1 startransmission

No Lynch


Not Voting

hitogoroshi
Pyrogen
just me
Dondero

[starkmoon]

Dondero will be replaced, he has not picked up the prod sent on Monday.

[starkmoon]

Prodded:

DarthRandall
Startransmission

[Annachie]

annachie - posts lack content, evades accusation

A random lynch also has the chance of taking out a power role, which combined with the mafia overnight kill, gives them a good chance of taking out 1 of them, and a small chance of both. (I point again to my first game where all 3 power roles were killed by the second 'night'

lol, forgot to include the number of power roles in my thinking. Kinda assumed 2 to match the 2 scum.

Why assume two power roles? You know there's a roleblocker, huh, and then noticed you screwed up?

Firstly, what accusations?

Secondly, what content is needed? I think I have two people pegged as mafia scum, have laid out my reasoning, and am yet to see anything to change my mind. So really I'm in reading/avoid prodding mode.

Thirdly, well since the first option of the four possible for the game set-up have two power roles it's an easy enough mistake to make to assume two power roles in my reasoning.

[Annachie]

ebwop:
... and improves my arguement against random lynching lol

[xvart]

If we are going to play the probability game, I should point out to you that the probability of the last member to join being mafia is 1/9. Very good odds he might be town, meaning that if he was late the chances would be BETTER to find the two mafia in the remaining eight.

True, but from a different perspective, Dondero (or whoever it turns out to be) has the exact same odds of being mafia as any of us do (by random assignment): 1/9.

Dondero will be replaced, he has not picked up the prod sent on Monday.

Now I think it is safe to assume one of two things:

• Dondero was mafia, blew his cover, and just quit;
  Dondero simply didn't have the time to continue; or,
  Dondero didn't have the desire to continue.

I wish we could get an answer to the two statements, because this now puts at a unique position since the replacement will have a totally different response to all the questions about the Laurell and Hardy comment. I'm pretty undecided on him being mafia or not, as I tend to believe that it was just an exasperated comment as a joke. I find it hard to believe that someone would say something like that this early in the game. I was going to form a stronger opinion based on his response.

ebwop:
... and improves my arguement against random lynching lol

I have a tough time reading this, especially with the "lol" at the end; but I don't like the fact that the logic basically reads as:
1. You made an argument; 2. Then, someone else said something; 3. That something strengthened your original argument; 4. Therefore, your original argument is more valid.

Do you get what I'm saying? Maybe there are discussions on logical arguments like this on the forums, or perhaps the SEs or IC can chime in if I am incorrect in reading it that way.

xvart.

[DarthRandal1138]

I'm here. I haven't posted because I've been waiting to hear from Dondero. Now that he's being replaced, hopefully his replacement will be a bit more active, and we can get discussion flowing again.

[startransmission]

^I'm in the same boat.

@ Pyro, thank you for ignoring my questions. And if you're going to cast suspicion on fgads based off of a meta, would you mind linking the game(s) that lead you to think he is acting scummy here?

[xvart]

I just noticed that my second post never came through right after my previous post. My laptop battery died after I clicked submit, and I thought it went through; so here is essentially what I asked earlier:

]The reason I didn't pick anyone out was because I have several exams and papers due this week, and I didn't feel like accusing anyone without evidence. After my tests I will go reread the thread and see who seems out of place. Of course I have my suspicions, but I won't reveal them yet.

No one really seems THAT scummy, but here is my list after a reread, based mostly on gut feelings:

So your suspicions are really only based on gut feelings?

lol, forgot to include the number of power roles in my thinking. Kinda assumed 2 to match the 2 scum.

Why assume two power roles? You know there's a roleblocker, huh, and then noticed you screwed up?

I have a question right back to you about this: How does a roleblocker have anything to do with it? There is a guaranteed two mafia in this game, and not necessarily a roleblocker. Annachie never mentioned anything about the mafia role assignment differences. Do you know there is a mafia roleblocker? And if so, how might that be, I wonder?

xvart.

[fhqwhgads]

I think we should probably give Dondero's replacement the benefit of the doubt (especially this early in the game).

Unvote

It is unfortunate that he was replaced and it also stands to logic that he can't answer for statements made by his predecessor. A new read is needed.

Thus my vote goes to the next scummy person on my list:

vote: Annachie

Firstly, what accusations?

Exactly.

Secondly, what content is needed? I think I have two people pegged as mafia scum, have laid out my reasoning, and am yet to see anything to change my mind. So really I'm in reading/avoid prodding mode.

Hmm... so you are saying that since your vote/arguments NOTHING has changed in this game?

Thirdly, well since the first option of the four possible for the game set-up have two power roles it's an easy enough mistake to make to assume two power roles in my reasoning.

I'n not quite following you here.

True, but from a different perspective, Dondero (or whoever it turns out to be) has the exact same odds of being mafia as any of us do (by random assignment): 1/9.

Yes, I know. This wasn't meant to be an argument, but rather to point out how stats could be mis-applied to back any number of arguments, again highlighted here.

[Annachie]

Why assume two power roles? You know there's a roleblocker, huh, and then noticed you screwed up?

I have a question right back to you about this: How does a roleblocker have anything to do with it? There is a guaranteed two mafia in this game, and not necessarily a roleblocker. Annachie never mentioned anything about the mafia role assignment differences. Do you know there is a mafia roleblocker? And if so, how might that be, I wonder?

xvart.

I bet he did something similar to me, and read the first of the four setup options and kinda read over the latter ones. (Option one has a roleblocker and 2 power roles, option 2 has a roleblocker and no power roles)

I wonder how long it will take to get a replacement in, and how much we should read into it? If Dondero was indeed a mafia, would someone take up the spot given that until recently Don was on 3 votes? Hell, if Don was not actually a scum would a replacement take the spot given the voting?

Now I think it is safe to assume one of two things:

Dondero was mafia, blew his cover, and just quit;
Dondero simply didn't have the time to continue; or,
Dondero didn't have the desire to continue.

or that he figgured that he was going to be lynched reguardless and just quit.

I would propose then that the longer it takes to get a replacement for Don, the more that xvart's first option is the correct one.
But one thing is certain. That replacements first post will be an important one.

fhqwgads: I'm not saying nothing has changed. But not changed enough to change my mind about Dondero.

I'm not quite following you here.

Basically I read the first option and assumed the two power roles in the game for all options. I didn't read it properly.

Anna ... since (s)he

Sorry, just noticed this. He. Took the name from a Loreena McKennitt song 14 years ago or so.

[xvart]

Why assume two power roles? You know there's a roleblocker, huh, and then noticed you screwed up?

I have a question right back to you about this: How does a roleblocker have anything to do with it? There is a guaranteed two mafia in this game, and not necessarily a roleblocker. Annachie never mentioned anything about the mafia role assignment differences. Do you know there is a mafia roleblocker? And if so, how might that be, I wonder?

xvart.

I bet he did something similar to me, and read the first of the four setup options and kinda read over the latter ones. (Option one has a roleblocker and 2 power roles, option 2 has a roleblocker and no power roles)

Why are you answering for him? Especially since he was originally accusing you of being scum?

I wonder how long it will take to get a replacement in, and how much we should read into it?

We should read nothing into the duration of replacement.

I wonder how long it will take to get a replacement in, and how much we should read into it? If Dondero was indeed a mafia, would someone take up the spot given that until recently Don was on 3 votes? Hell, if Don was not actually a scum would a replacement take the spot given the voting?

I would propose then that the longer it takes to get a replacement for Don, the more that xvart's first option is the correct one.
But one thing is certain. That replacements first post will be an important one.

Anyone considering replacing in will not know what the role assignment is. It is possible that people might elect to not join in based on the situation, but I'm pretty sure that might not be as bad as you think, considering the accusations of Dondero were enough to be suspicious, but not enough for a lynch (at least in my opinion); I think the opinion expressed by a number of us is that we were waiting on an explanation before coming to a solid conclusion. I think anyone that joins in might say it was simple newbie sarcasm and we would all be forced to believe it.

Although I am suspicious of Dondero (and by virtue of affiliation, the replacement, too), I am more suspicious of the people voting for him; and you fall into that category.

FoS: Annachie

xvart.

[startransmission]

I like xvarts post 164, some good points are brought up, especially that last one regarding Pyros roleblocker comment.

Where have you gone Pyro? The game has slowed down to a crawl as we wait for a replacement for Dondero. You were extremely active earlier, and now nothing. I've asked you a couple harmless questions, and you ignore them. You say that fgads is too cautious to be town, but when asked for a meta or even an explanation you stay quiet. I had a hard time reading you, and I gave your erratic behavior the benefit of the doubt in my early analysis. But right now I'm not so sure, and I'd like to hear more from you.

Unvote, Vote: Pyrogen

[hitogoroshi]

Ah, xvart took my objection! (I can't fault him for it, I haven't posted here in a few days.) But yeah, the length of time we wait for the replacement means nothing.

And quite honestly the replacements first post won't matter quite so much. When you get later into a game, there are a bunch of mines that a replacement could step on, but nothing of major significance has really happened in this game and as such the replacement is almost more like a delayed player here. Don hasn't really done or said anything of significance. (And no, the 'Laurel and Hardy' bit is not WIFOM, because that connection between the two posts was essentially random and was only defined by annachie for who knows what reason.)

[fhqwhgads]

I bet he did something similar to me, and read the first of the four setup options and kinda read over the latter ones. (Option one has a roleblocker and 2 power roles, option 2 has a roleblocker and no power roles)

Wow. Just wow.

I wonder how long it will take to get a replacement in, and how much we should read into it? If Dondero was indeed a mafia, would someone take up the spot given that until recently Don was on 3 votes? Hell, if Don was not actually a scum would a replacement take the spot given the voting?

Replacements usually don't know the role until replacement happens. So this should not be an issue.

I would propose then that the longer it takes to get a replacement for Don, the more that xvart's first option is the correct one.
But one thing is certain. That replacements first post will be an important one.

I don't like this at all. You are putting a lot of pressure on this replacement and creating a false dilemma. Easy target?

Where have you gone Pyro?

+1

[Pyrogen]

Ok, the questions:

Really? What do you make of my and xvarts analysis? You also haven't weighed in on hito and annachie's debate over the WIFOM that Dondero presented. Or the wagon against Dondero because of it.

And the "but I won't reveal them yet" is a cop out. Is this for the sake of conversation, yet again?

I think all three of our analysis are pretty close, so why do I need to comment? I also think that the WIFOM debate is no evidence either way, so why comment on it? And like I said before, I find Dondero a little bit town.

I've already posted my suspicions.

Meta isn't really a good strategy, but after reading them I was going on a gut feeling with my suspicions on fgads. Read them yourself, I don't consider it evidence. But if he's mafia, I have bragging rights on being the first to suspect him.

Also, I was extremely busy the last couple of weeks with midterms and such, but I should be pretty free now. Seems like everything has died down, eh?

[starkmoon]

just me
DarthRandal1138
Dondero 2 Annachie, DarthRandal1138
Annachie fhqwhgads
xvart
Pyrogen 2 xvart, startransmission
hitogoroshi
startransmission
fhqwhgads

No Lynch


Not Voting

hitogoroshi
Pyrogen
just me
Dondero

[xvart]

Annachie? Any comments or clarification about the roleblocker/power role comments?

Pyrogen? Any comments or clarification about the roleblocker/power role comments?

xvart.

[Annachie]

Nah, not really.

I stand by my logic on that xvart, even if I did mis-read the game-setup info.

I'm more thinking about the targeted lynch, random lynch, no lynch thing at the moment. With the first night only a few hours away I'm trying to decide how confident people are about their votes and how confident I am about mine.
Or to put it another way, assuming that we get to the required 5 votes, if that lynching would be a targeted or random one.
An assumption that I make/have made is that a random lynching isn't that random as the scum have influenced it.


Then again, being down to 8 at the moment, would we get to the needed 5.



I'm aso thinking about the various comments about giving a replacement a chance to state their own case.