Newbie 853 (Endgame, Mafia win!!)

[AGar]

'Ello ello ello.

Wow, this is the first game I'm in with players I've played with before!

Hi

Kelly

Lizzy!

Hi Scorp!

Now, to business. This looks like it will be an interesting re-read in the very least.

Thoughts to come later.

[XScorpion]

Well at least it will be nice to have a non-lurker should we reach LyLo...playing with people like Ezekial is annoying because there is nothing to read.

[DTMaster]

Ew sorry guys I have work. I'll post my partially completed responses. I was working backwards since I was 4 pages behind and since it's the weekend expect more.

I didn't want to leave the town without content.

Since most of the concerns were my unfinished case analysis I'll just continue that. I'll link to the respective posts since I'm 4 pages behind in this game to make it easier for you and break it up with boxes per person. Sorry to the town, but my lack of activity = non ideal player and is poor play. :<

Lizzy

Lizzy 234: Eww... I dislike this post because it's admitting to a lot of issues of non committal posts. If you are going to defend your self in this way link to some games of yours showing this is true (note they have to be completed). At face value this is just bleah without those links.

Troll

250 I'm getting vibes of a town on town attack possibly. I'm remeniscing of my first newbie game where I played with Tubby216 and we engaged in a game long tunnel fest which ended up as both as townies.

XScorpion

A bit late but welcome to this game.
268: A few things:
1. Don't use the law of averages in this case. You are falling into a fallacy trap.

Content in games >>>>>>> this line of thinking

.

2. I understand why you want me to vote (theory argument) but I dislike being a sticky vote where I can help it. I also didn't expect to be swamped so badly but this is another debate that is off topic. (Though this reminds me of Don_j) Though I find it odd that that was your only request from me. You only asked me to for some scum hunting analysis.
I expected to hear: Thoughts.. etc please. Why didn't you ask that?

3. Why did you ask cruelty on how you can clear yourself? That's just a plain anti-town/scummy question to ask. He and the rest of the town should judge on your posts on how scummy/townie you appear through our own criteria.

4. If you are focused on a Ezk scum theory right now why did you just say:

Assuming we make the wrong lynch today (highly likely from my perspective),

are you really going to prefer having Ezekial during LyLo than myself, given that he doesn't even contribute anything

You are using the too neutral argument on Ezekial? So that means he's not scummy but not townie at the same time. This reads as a partial scum slip to me since it suggests that: you are open if a mislynch occurs. So clarify to me: As it stands is Ezekial scummy or is this poilcy lurker lynching?

Also why do you say its a high chance of mislynching in your POV. If you are applying this to yourself this is just appealing to emotions and you are soft claiming townie here, which in itself is odd and scummy. Be specific heonre: who are you saying is the mislynch. The only leading wagon is yours, and the other leading wagon is a thought wagon Ezekial. If it is on Ezekial, you just defended him saying a mislynch is likely... which to me makes no sense here either.

Debate about Ezekial in the recent exchange

Tbh, I feel that lurking/lack of activity is just anti-town and independant of alignment. From experience, lurkers flipped inconsitantly as scum or town when a lynch went through so using this as an argument against him to me is weak.

I do know Ezekial in real life but I haven't spoken to him in a while after my week of midterm hell so I don't have RL meta to bring here. However this is his first time playing a game like this on this fourm so he is very newby.

This is my partial case but personally my top two picks of scum is Lizzy for her admission for non comittal. It allows her to slide to easily under the radar if we just let this slide. Also XScorpion from Vendle's actions. Concerned is condtional since I link him with Vendel for clearing him so quickly when to me his town clearance idea is quite silly since it ignores the bussing/distancing argument. He then revoked his idea but this reads as null change based on how gradual it was.

[DTMaster]

Also Welcome Agar.

--- More Later. Just commented on the more recent stuff for now. ---

[XScorpion]

The only leading wagon is yours, and the other leading wagon is a thought wagon Ezekial. If it is on Ezekial, you just defended him saying a mislynch is likely... which to me makes no sense here either.

Well, look at it from my perspective. I know I'm town, but I have no idea about Ezekial because I don't have very much to go on. So from where I stand, it seems highly likely that a townie is going to get voted out today, because there's a decent chance that we're both town. Ezekial isn't scummy, my vote was straight up lurker lynching, because having a lurker in LyLo is a disaster. I predict that Agar might help to turn this game around, since he is definitely less likely to lurk than Ezekial.
Unfortunately, I'm not being judged on how scummy/townie I am, I'm being judged on how scummy Vendel was, which means that I'm probably the most logical choice for vote. I'm trying to see if there's any way I can reduce the damage his play has caused.
I didn't need to ask you for thoughts...you said already that you were going to give them, so I didn't want to swamp you with too much MORE than you had on your plate.

[AGar]

Ok, whew. That's down, and I'm ready to post up my thoughts and then go out for Friday night.

Unvote

I don't think XScorp/VW is scum. Why? His reactions to things are far too emotional. I find emotional reactions to be a pro-town tell, because townies know they are townie and that the attacks are nonsense. They then get frustrated at that and start posting up walls of emotional/borderline rage text. They get frustrated with the game.

I'm suspicious of Concerned. The quick vote on D2. The mysterious on-again-off-again seemingly reasonless votes. The buddying up to VW. Just too many things tell my gut "he's probably scum."

Zorblag, DT, Lizzy and Cruelty I'm having a tough time getting a read on. Cruelty seems to be playing a proactive game, but I'm not sure. He's tunneling on VW a bit, but that's to be expected. Zorblag is playing IC-like, I always get mixed reads on ICs. DT isn't really committing to anything, but he's had a lot going on. Lizzy is playing quite differently from last game, where she pushed things hard as a cop. Not sure if this is just a bad time for her or a different alignment.

[AGar]

Seeing the close proximity of the deadline, I prefer my vote to be heard at the moment.

Vote: Concerned

You probably should be.

[Lizzy Tsoi]

AGar! Welcome :) I was surprised to see your avatar in this thread - thank you for replacing in

& thank you for not outing me ha

.

Oh yay - finally a bit more pressure on Concerned. Concerned, now that Ezekiel has been replaced, has your vote changed?

AGar, it's interesting that your vote & reasoning behind it are so drastically different from your predecessor's. Since your reason for thinking VW/Scorp town can apply to scum as well, is there anything besides behavior play (ie. logic play) that make you think this way?

Right, so I'm unsure where these ideas that I am noncommittal are coming from. I'm not being noncommittal, and that post that DTMaster has a problem with was not to defend myself in "noncommittal" behavior.

The point of that post was me expressing that what I had on Concerned was not from manipulative scumhunting, but rather from my observations on his behavior with other people. I have taken a position from what I've seen in this game and believe Concerned the most scummy. That is not wishy-washy. Wishy-washy is not having confidence behind a vote, or moving without much reason on views of people.

My playstyle here is seen as pretty passive, but throughout much of this game, there has never been a reason for me to be on the attack. Many of the rest of you have done quite a lot of attacking and it has only escalated into unreadable, almost unhelpful exchanges. In a game where there is less attacking, I take more active measures, but in this game it is better for my own understanding of people's actions if I only look at others' attacks and others' reactions, post my views on things and see how they're received.

If there are any more excuses to be had, they're that I've been sick with the swine flu & food poisoning throughout this month, so perhaps that has led to more passive playing than I'd wish. I want to post at least once a day, but things have prevented me from that. Maybe with more posts I'll be able to throw off this view that I am playing too passively.

Regarding the other game, AGar, I had to attack more to decide who to investigate at night & who not to, and it would have provided me with solid information the next day. Here, no solid info at all. So while my playing's going to change a little more actively now, it will be nothing like my play in that past game.

[Zorblag]

Mod: When on the 9th exactly is the deadline?

Welcome to the game, AGar! We haven't played in any games together but I've heard good things about you from people who's opinions I respect. Thank you for getting caught up with the game quickly. I am going to take issue with your saying that you're getting a mixed IC read on me. This game is the first time that I've had so many players latch onto the idea that somehow ICs are something other than normal players in the game. Sure ICs have a few games under their belt and can answer questions about rules and basic theory but their play is just as analyzable as anyone else's.

If you think that I'm trying to guide the town to make bad choices or hiding behind my theory talk rather than contributing to the game or something else that would hurt the town then you should suspect me just like you would anyone else who's hurting the town. If you think that I'm giving good advice and generally acting in a way that should help the town then you shouldn't. If there are some things that I'm doing that strike you as scummy and some that strike you as town then point them out. Lumping IC play together as giving a mixed read is a copout that lets you avoid actually commenting on what you think of my play.

I don't particularly think that emotional play is a town tell. I think that it's much more player dependent than it is alignment dependent. I'll second Lizzy Tsoi's question about whether you think Vendelwalker's reasoning made him look like town to you?

@Everyone, by my count we're at L-2 on three different players now (AGar, Concerned, XScorpion) with 3 days until deadline. If we don't pick one lynch then we'll go to night with a no lynch which we don't want to do. I'd like everyone to give their top two scum picks now. We need to get this narrowed down and we need to have people here to do it.

I wouldn't vocally oppose any lynch other than Cruelty's or my own at this point (and I'd still be the hammer for either of those rather than have us face a no lynch) but my top picks are currently:

1. XScorpion
2. AGar

Both are recent replacements and I like both of their play better than their predecessors (actually by a fair amount.) I hope to see as much from each of them as well as everyone else as possible before deadline so that I can make a more informed decision. Where we're at today is about where I'd like us to be a week into day two rather than 3 days before deadline but we can't have everything.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[AGar]

AGar! Welcome I was surprised to see your avatar in this thread - thank you for replacing in

& thank you for not outing me ha

.

Oh yay - finally a bit more pressure on Concerned. Concerned, now that Ezekiel has been replaced, has your vote changed?

AGar, it's interesting that your vote & reasoning behind it are so drastically different from your predecessor's. Since your reason for thinking VW/Scorp town can apply to scum as well, is there anything besides behavior play (ie. logic play) that make you think this way?

Right, so I'm unsure where these ideas that I am noncommittal are coming from. I'm not being noncommittal, and that post that DTMaster has a problem with was not to defend myself in "noncommittal" behavior.

The point of that post was me expressing that what I had on Concerned was not from manipulative scumhunting, but rather from my observations on his behavior with other people. I have taken a position from what I've seen in this game and believe Concerned the most scummy. That is not wishy-washy. Wishy-washy is not having confidence behind a vote, or moving without much reason on views of people.

My playstyle here is seen as pretty passive, but throughout much of this game, there has never been a reason for me to be on the attack. Many of the rest of you have done quite a lot of attacking and it has only escalated into unreadable, almost unhelpful exchanges. In a game where there is less attacking, I take more active measures, but in this game it is better for my own understanding of people's actions if I only look at others' attacks and others' reactions, post my views on things and see how they're received.

If there are any more excuses to be had, they're that I've been sick with the swine flu & food poisoning throughout this month, so perhaps that has led to more passive playing than I'd wish. I want to post at least once a day, but things have prevented me from that. Maybe with more posts I'll be able to throw off this view that I am playing too passively.

Regarding the other game, AGar, I had to attack more to decide who to investigate at night & who not to, and it would have provided me with solid information the next day. Here, no solid info at all. So while my playing's going to change a little more actively now, it will be nothing like my play in that past game.

I don't recall listing you as non-committal. I dunno if it came across that way, but I didn't intend to say that. I just noted that your playstyle isn't as aggressive as last game we played (and you've given good reason).

As for my vote and change of heart on VW/Scorp - the behavior play is the main key to my feelings, but I also see how he is arguing on his behalf - while we don't necessarily see how he is coming across, I can see how he particularly feels that he was honestly trying to stop the BrotherNature lynch. While it didn't come across as that, it's not unbelievable that he thought he was in the right there.

Concerned has been non-aggressive to most people unless called out upon first, although he maintained in one post that he has an aggressive playstyle. He has taken the easy route of calling out a lurker. My big interest now is to see where his vote goes, seeing as I have no intentions of lurking. Also, he never even so much as hesitated when the cop claim came out. Now, you shouldn't always believe every claim, but not unvoting after a PR-claim to at least sort things out (with yes, two weeks until the deadline) is just boneheaded.

Welcome to the game, AGar! We haven't played in any games together but I've heard good things about you from people who's opinions I respect. Thank you for getting caught up with the game quickly. I am going to take issue with your saying that you're getting a mixed IC read on me. This game is the first time that I've had so many players latch onto the idea that somehow ICs are something other than normal players in the game. Sure ICs have a few games under their belt and can answer questions about rules and basic theory but their play is just as analyzable as anyone else's.

I tend to find that ICs, because they have more experience under their belt, are tougher to read because they've played more games, gotten more experience, understand theory and mechanics better, etc etc. It's not so much "being the IC" that throws me as it's just generally ICs are better players.

Also thanks for the compliment

If you wanted my top two right now, it'd be:

1. Concerned
2. Cruelty - for the sole fact that he keeps on hitting at VW and also is ignoring the fact that Concerned didn't even so much as unvote on BN.

[XScorpion]

1. Agar
2. Concerned

Ezekial's play means we still know nearly nothing about that spot.
I still don't know why Concerned was defending my spot so strongly...If I didn't know I was town, I'd think we were scumbuddies. Still, there's really no reason for town to be defending other town.

[cruelty]

[Limited access, short and dirty]

2. Cruelty - for the sole fact that he keeps on hitting at VW and also is ignoring the fact that Concerned didn't even so much as unvote on BN

2 points.

1: What exactly is wrong with my case on VW? Pressing a case I think is correct is hardly a scumtell.
2: Not sure how that's relevant to VW. I didn't unvote on BN either. Why didn't you bring that up? Or DTM? - actually, who DID unvote? I don't have time to go back through, but offhand I don't recall anyone unvoting.


I don't really understand your suspicion. I might be a bit tunnelled but the game has been very stagnant so I think it's understandable. I don't think I've been acting inherently scummy, and I don't think that you point re: Concerned is in anyway relevant (Especially when you consider my target is the guy who hammered the claimed cop with two weeks left in the day).

[XScorpion]

Wrong quote.

[cruelty]

Also Lizzy in a game like this I think that playing passively is hugely anti-town. The game has been stagnant as I said, so you've been able to fly under the radar and excuse it as your playstyle - I don't really like that.

[AGar]

[Limited access, short and dirty]

2. Cruelty - for the sole fact that he keeps on hitting at VW and also is ignoring the fact that Concerned didn't even so much as unvote on BN

2 points.

1: What exactly is wrong with my case on VW? Pressing a case I think is correct is hardly a scumtell.
2: Not sure how that's relevant to VW. I didn't unvote on BN either. Why didn't you bring that up? Or DTM? - actually, who DID unvote? I don't have time to go back through, but offhand I don't recall anyone unvoting.


I don't really understand your suspicion. I might be a bit tunnelled but the game has been very stagnant so I think it's understandable. I don't think I've been acting inherently scummy, and I don't think that you point re: Concerned is in anyway relevant (Especially when you consider my target is the guy who hammered the claimed cop with two weeks left in the day).

That was me, first of all. Honestly, Troll asked for a top two, and I needed a second. I'm not by any means in the mood of lynching you, but I do want to read your posts deeper.

Point 1: I'm not saying it's bad. I'm not saying it's a scumtell. I'm saying the twisting and turning that is going on on both sides is a little odd. Difference being I saw the emotional reactions from VW. You've maintained calm and cool about it.

Point 2: You're chastising VW for the hammer - but Concerned LEFT his vote there. You did as well (thanks for the ammo). Either one of you could have prevented the hammer, but neither chose to. DTM was V/LA.

Using a stagnant game as an excuse for tunneling is unacceptable - if anything, tunneling is the LAST thing you should be doing, instead trying to get conversation going with other avenues.

[Lizzy Tsoi]

Oh, AGar, the latter part of that was directed at DTMaster for one of his latest posts. He's the one who called my actions noncommittal, not you (I should have made that clearer).

My top suspects:

1. Concerned for reasons I've stated. His logic doesn't follow through and neither does the behavior.
2. DTMaster because of just a general unreadability. Too many distracting arguments that seem to detract rather than help. I get the feeling he may be scum that uses what seems like active scumhunting to mask his own scent.

My list has a giant gap between Concerned and DTMaster + everyone else. Concerned is the only one I feel very confident in believing is scum.

[cruelty]

Yep knew it was you, was my mistake.


Thanks for the ammo? Did you read the thread? I already acknowledged that my vote was there (in fact I started the wagon), but the wagon built up a head of steam and VW was lynched before I could do anything about it.

Also, I'm more scummy because I'm calm? That's laughable. Scum would surely be more "emotional" - especially when trying to convince someone of their innocence.

I note that you say this earlier:

Cruelty seems to be playing a proactive game, but I'm not sure. He's tunneling on VW a bit, but that's to be expected.

then

Cruelty - for the sole fact that he keeps on hitting at VW

then

if anything, tunneling is the LAST thing you should be doing

Which is the inconsistency I was hoping for. Thanks.

[Concerned]

Wrote my second exam today, that's why I've been slightly absent these past two days.
For now welcome Agar .
Haven't read anything yet (did notice the second vote on me however), because my brain is a tad fried but I'll contribute properly after a hour or two, I really need a nap.

[Concerned]

OK I needed that. Glad to see we've had a nice bit of activity lately.

Firstly I think I need to say my piece about the VW/XScorp spot.
Yes I defended VW, but I honestly believed he was town and still do for that matter. Perhaps there is no reason for townie to defend townie, perhaps that's generally accepted play at least, but if that's the popular belief then I just don't subscribe to it.
I believed VW was innocent, I believed lynching him would have sent us straight into LYLO, I got this belief from a general feeling of how he was playing, perhaps I was/am incorrect. I never claimed to be the mentalist, but that was my opinion and I didn't feel right letting VW get lynched when I truly believed his innocence. In short, I think that slot is townie, I believe that. Yes I could be wrong but that's what I believe.

To answer Lizzy/Agar's queries no, I am not going to change my vote. The main reason I voted Ezekial was for his completely unreasoned vote on VW (a player I believed townie) which to me looked like an easy bandwagon jump for a scummy player. Him lurking certainly didn't help matters but that was still the main reason.

On top of that Agar's posts have hardly done anything to convince me otherwise.
- I don't think acting emotional is a scum tell at all and to be honest prior to your post I had actually thought acting emotional was a scum tell (thought I read it somewhere). Not that I picked up emotional behavior from VW but there it is.
- I find it rather ironic that one of your reasons for your suspicion of me is my buddying up to VW when you seem to be doing something very similar at the moment.
- You are using the fact that myself and cruelty did not unvote on the claimed cop as a scum tell, as if we were supposed to have the clairvoyance to realise that VW would hammer. Not to mention the fact that BN was acting scummy at the time.

I'm perfectly happy with my vote at this point. Sadly I don't have anyone else who I am confident enough to finger but I will give my read on the other players thus far.

- Cruelty, I'm leaning villa
- XScorp, I'm leaning villa
- DTM - Completely unsure.
- Lizzy, Unsure, she seems to be a little too solidly behind my lynch, and if she were scum she would know I would flip villa. I would expect scum to be slightly more hesitant, in order to cover their ass.
- Zorblag, I'm leaning villa, it still worries me that he may be manipulating me, but he seems to be acting completely pro-town. Hard to justify suspicion for pro-villa behavior .

[XScorpion]

but the wagon built up a head of steam and VW was lynched before I could do anything about it.

What's with all the name errors?

[cruelty]

Yeah sorry, I have very limited access and am typing very quickly. You get the gist of what I'm saying.

[AGar]

Yep knew it was you, was my mistake.


Thanks for the ammo? Did you read the thread? I already acknowledged that my vote was there (in fact I started the wagon), but the wagon built up a head of steam and VW was lynched before I could do anything about it.

Also, I'm more scummy because I'm calm? That's laughable. Scum would surely be more "emotional" - especially when trying to convince someone of their innocence.

I note that you say this earlier:

Cruelty seems to be playing a proactive game, but I'm not sure. He's tunneling on VW a bit, but that's to be expected.

then

Cruelty - for the sole fact that he keeps on hitting at VW

then

if anything, tunneling is the LAST thing you should be doing

Which is the inconsistency I was hoping for. Thanks.

I had missed that your vote stayed without an unvote. My bad, I digested 12 pages in a night, I miss things.

Just because it's to be expected doesn't mean it's the right thing to do. I never said "Cruelty is playing a pro-town game, doing the expected tunneling on VW."

Also, scum are less likely to be emotional when an issue is pushed because they realize that, deep down, the accusations are correct. Town freak out in frustration because they know the case is bull.

[cruelty]

If you'd had serious concerns about tunnelling you'd have brought them up in your initial post. Curiouser and curiouser.

[AGar]

If you'd had serious concerns about tunnelling you'd have brought them up in your initial post. Curiouser and curiouser.

Honestly, I have bigger fish to fry then one lone fool tunneling too hard on someone. Looking back, you didn't post any time after BN's self-vote. So I really can't fault you for not unvoting. I can fault Concerned for putting a claiming PR at L-1. What sense does that make? VW hammered, yes. But Concerned set him up for the hammer - you don't seem to be understanding that.

VW couldn't have hammered if Concerned hadn't put the L-1 out there.

I'd much rather go after that than someone I have a minimal case on that happens to be second on my list because I'd rather take out the bigger threat first.

The reason I say it's "expected" of you to tunnel is because you're only seeing one side of things - VW hammered - and you seem to be missing all other points. With that in mind, you're going to go after the only thread you have.

So other than some inconsistencies in your interpretation of what I meant, anything else you'd like me to address?

[AGar]

Also, I'm more scummy because I'm calm? That's laughable. Scum would surely be more "emotional" - especially when trying to convince someone of their innocence.

Also just noted this.

No. I never said remaining calm and cool was a scumtell. Because it isn't. What I said (or at least the point I was trying to get across) was, in a heated tunnel-on-tunnel argument, I've observed that a townie will tend to overreact to the accusations emotionally and take them personally. Townies

can

act calm in the situation, it happens. The scummy part of things is twisting and turning each others words against one another, not emotional reaction. Had I not felt that the emotion was a decent towntell, I'd probably find VW pretty scummy too.

Emotion =/= Scumtell
Emotion CAN = Towntell at times.