DP12 JeepFest Mafia GAME OVER

[the silent speaker]

Why not, LML? When should we speculate on the significance of there only being one kill? There may not be any way yet to tell whether it's because there is one killing group (in which case, what a lovely wooden horse DP has given us as an unsolicited gift; surely there couldn't be any nasty surprises lurking in it) or because an interference role got lucky or because there was a chance-based role that failed or because someone chose not to kill (usually poor play on someone's part, as they will have to let the cat out of the bag sooner or later), but throwing out speculaton never hurts and sometimes can help.

If nobody votes, no bandwagons build.

Vote: PBuG

.

[the silent speaker]

If nobody votes, no bandwagons build. Vote: PBuG

Clarification: the above is why I saw fit to cast a vote in that post, not why I chose PBuG for that vote. PBug did cast a vote himself, after all.

[the silent speaker]

This does raise kind of an interesting question. Why should there be people not there represented and people who are there not represented? Simply giving everybody, scum included, names of people there obviates all problems, no? What's wrong with having the scum roles be, e.g. "Jeep and big_kahunia" and simply leaving "Dragon Phoenix and the silent speaker" out of the game?

However, I have to agree with MeMe that given that we do have names of all flavors, for whatever reason, it follows that taking the mod's statement that rolename's attendance does not necessarily correlate to rolename's scumminess to mean that those whose rolenames are in attendance are less likely to be scum (as Axelrod seems to be doing) is just silly.

One final thought, to LoudmouthLee: I don't see Axelrod assuming that there

was

only one family in his initial post. He just threw it out as a possibility.

[the silent speaker]

I notice that aside from EYNH, who's posted to tell us he's not here, there's only one person who has neither voted nor been voted for.

Unvote: PBuG, vote: Vesuvan

, partly for lurking (he hasn't posted yet!) partly because there's at least the possiblity that the votelessness is connected to people avoiding voting for him. I am also a little suspicious of SaberKitty for unvoting her random without doing anything constructive with her vote.

[the silent speaker]

Mod: Why is my vote still on PBuG?

If my vote for Vesuvan counts, as it should, the bandwagon is actually at

nine. Unvote: Vesuvan

so he can't be finished off before he can respond. Question for LML: What do you mean your Vesuvote is "safe"? Safe for whom against what?

[the silent speaker]

That's interesting. You were going by a vote count posted

after

your vote?

To be fair, Axelrod, that's not the

entire

case against Vesuvan. There's also the fact that at the time, he had voted for no one and no one had voted for him. Hardly conclusive, but the two together (though the not posting and not voting aren't exactly unconnected, as he obviously can't vote without a post) do make him stand out from the mass of people worth a raised eyebrow at least.

[the silent speaker]

Well well well. I waited a day or two to see what the people on the hot seat had to say in their own defense. And other than LML, who did give a satisfactory account of himself, they said not a damn thing.

SaberKitty's willingness to be number n-1 is the second time she's come up on my radar. MeMe and Mr Stoofer are absolutely right that the argument ought to be exactly the opposite, and I did note with interest who leapt on the Vesuvan wagon (which is quite likely scum-approved at this point, as Mr Stoofer also correctly pointed out) with what reasoning. I also noted this with interest:

i don't understand why this whole bandwagon formed because someone posted right after it was made apparent that they hadn't said anything. suspicious as it is- i don't understand why vesuvian hasn't said anything since.

Later in the post, SK voted Vesuvan. So... you don't understand why the bandwagon formed, and you just jumped on anyway? (This, or a similar, was olio's point, too, I think.) All in all I'm happy with a

vote: SaberKitty

. Her post is

concentrated

scummy.

I'm not sure what to make of the PB thing that sprouted. I think it will depend on who else is revealed scum later. Overall he seems scummier than not, but I would be less happy with a PB vote on the basis of it than I am with the SK vote I have now.

[the silent speaker]

Can I vote SaberKitty twice?

[the silent speaker]

If you're lynched, Vesuvan, your role is gone anyway. And we

have

to lynch somebody. If we don't lynch, we can't win.

[the silent speaker]

Remind me again why we're letting SaberKitty off the hook without even making her answer the charges against her?

[the silent speaker]

Here's something. Olio was fourth on both the Vesuvan and SaberKitty bandwagons, and Commodore Amazing was third on Vesuvan's and second on SaberKitty's. Going with Mr Stoofer's theory that the bandwagons' speed is an indicator in their favor, both of them are in good scum spots for two townies' bandwagons! (I'm not sold that they

are

two townies, but the 'if' statement still holds, and Mr Stoofer's idea is probably independently not dismissable out of hand.)

Notably, the Commodore is not voting for any of the top suspects now. Indeed, since ditching the SaberKitty bandwagon he has not voted for anyone... and the Oliowagon stalled. Which means that that wagon did

not

get scum piling on en masse.

And if SaberKitty

is

scum, it's interesting that PBuG led the charge off that bandwagon.

FOS: Commodore Amazing, Olio, and PBuG.

I'll switch my vote when I've decided between the latter two -- Olio preferential to CA because he's already got votes.

[the silent speaker]

Part of the problem, I think, is that often by the time a bandwagon gets to two off, the person has already made his defenses and

is

at the point of last resort. Vesuvan got there almost before he even posted.

Vote:olio.

What decided me in his favor over PBuG is that he has something going for him when SaberKitty is scum, as well as when she's town: she was voting for him randomly and then unvoted without having anything constructive to do with her vote. This suggests that the random was there in the first place only to make them look unallied (remember, this assumes SK is scum; if she's not, my previous post applies). So, PBuG looks scummy when SK is scum, not so much when she's town; olio looks scummy when SK is town, but also a little when SK is scum; olio gets the vote.

[the silent speaker]

The above should read

unvote: SaberKitty, vote olio

.

[the silent speaker]

Charting all the bandwagons:
* Ves SK olio Some PBuG
Some yes yes yes - no
rol yes no no no yes
NTW no no no yes yes
MeMe no no no no yes
Shad yes no no yes no
LML yes no yes no no
Ves - yes yes no no
Fuldu no no no yes no
PB no yes yes no no
Stoof no yes no yes yes
Leon no no yes no no
ARod no no yes yes no
EYNH yes no no no yes
CA yes yes no no yes
tss yes yes yes no no
SK yes - no no yes
Nox no no no no yes

Hopefully this will help voting record analyses. Here's mine.

We know olio and PBuG are not scum. Fun tidbit: nobody was on both their bandwagons.
Looking at olio's wagon: either two of Leonidas, Vesuvan and Someone are scum or none are, I think; either the oliowagon was scum-approved from the start or not, and it doesn't look scum-approved for only the second go-round. (To be fair, that's kind of circular as part of the reason I say it doesn't look like a scum-approved second wave is that the second wave is largely people I know aren't or don't think are scum, like me and LML.)
Looking at PBuG's wagon: Roland and MeMe voted in quick succession, and not too long after Fuldu and Mr Stoofer followed suit. That was it until a deadline loomed, and with PBug ahead but only on points, Commodore Amazing, EnterYourNameHere, and NanookTheWolf all voted in quick succession. SaberKitty became the ninth vote on her

second bandwagon of the day

and that was it.

Suppose the oliowagon is clean and SaberKitty is scum. The people to look at then are Commodore, EYNH and Nanook for the PBug thing and Roland, Nanook, MeMe, Shadow, Fuldu, EYNH and Nox for not voting SK (the people who didn't vote SK but did vote olio are cleared by the first assumption); top suspicion goes to Nanook and EYNH, lesser so to Roland, MeMe and Fuldu (but I doubt more than one of those three is scum, based on this hypothesis of the development of the PBuG wagon). Doubtless there will be some scum who

did

vote SK to throw us off, but we can worry about those after.

Suppose the oliowagon is clean and SaberKitty is town. Looking at the kittywagon: Commodore and PB voted her quickly, after PB had been FOSed by roland and MeMe for "miscounting when SaberKitty clearly labeled her vote the ninth." Roland voted PB (presumably for switching his vote with no explanation) and SaberKitty followed -- but that bandwagon, by this paragraph's assumption, is at least half-clean. Vesuvan now joined the Kittywagon as did Mr Stoofer (who added a comment that he didn't understand the PB thing) and olio. Someone jumped really quickly on too. PBuG threw on an eighth vote and then the bandwagon began to dwindle: Vesuvan found olio suspicious, PB was swayed by SaberKitty's noticing that some people hadn't posted in four whole days, Someone "didn't feel SK was really that scummy" to begin with, and PBuG congratulated her on a job well done. Commodore Amazing with an unvote "for now" added:

I haven't really seen much from Someone, PBug, Fuldu, or EnterYourNameHere that makes me want to vote for them,

when Fuldu and EYNH didn't even have votes. (EYNH had one from MeMe; that's it.)
So: the people who jumped and aren't by hypothesis town are Commodore and Mr Stoofer. Commodore's comment suggests reflected suspicion on Fuldu and EYNH, and Mr Stoofer's suggests stretching the definition of "a clean bandwagon" to allow PB to be scum.

Suppose the oliowagon is scum-approved. Then the people to look at are Vesuvan, Leonidas and Someone. Since Someone voted Vesuvan, likeliest is Leo and Ves; Vesuvan's vote suggests town SaberKitty and scum-approved Kittywagon. Also, if Leonidas is innocent, it follows that Someone and Vesuvan are scum, and it's telling that both of them were on the Kittywagon. Again Commodore and Mr Stoofer come under high suspicion, accompanied this time by PB, with Fuldu and EYNH on the very outside.

Recap of the recap: scenario 1, suspicion level 3 (highest) Nanook, EYNH; suspicion level 2 Fuldu, MeMe, roland; suspicion level 1 Commodore Amazing, Mr Stoofer.
Scenario 2, suspicion level 3 Commodore Amazing, Mr Stoofer; level 2 Fuldu, EYNH; level 1, PB.
Scenario 3, suspicion level 3 Vesuvan, Leonidas, Someone; level 2.5 Commodore Amazing, Mr Stoofer, PB; level 1 Fuldu, EYNH.

I was suspicious of Commodore Amazing already yesterday. Let's go back to the tried and true.

Vote: Commodore Amazing. FOS: Mr Stoofer, EnterYourNameHere, Fuldu.

[the silent speaker]

Crap, I thought the chart would format better. Sorry. Is it still readable?

[the silent speaker]

By oversight, I left out that SaberKitty is obviously suspicion level 3 for the first scenario, since part of the scenario is that she is scum.

[the silent speaker]

I wonder. If PB has a post restriction, which he implied he did, that use of his role means he can only post once, the fact that he posted more than once on Day 1 implies that he didn't use his role. Why not?

The reason I FOSed the people I did, and voted Commodore, is that they were all at least a little scummy in

all

my scenarios, not just two out of three. I'd be opn to switching my vote to any of the people I FOSed, but I'd like to see a vote count first.

[the silent speaker]

Okay. I think Axelrod tends toward towniedom (largely because there are a half dozen people I've labeled as scummier based on the voting patterns.) So let's see how well his elaborate theories can be slotted in with my own.

Axelrod's theory: Hinges, as far as I can see, on the premise that Someone is scum, tending to clear Mr Stoofer and lending suspicion on roland, MeMe and Shadow. MeMe has the point that she

is

voting Someone, and roland has since claimed, so if there are any Mafia in this group, the place to look is Shadow. Also, Commodore Amazing is suspect for defending Someone. Possible problem: Shadow also was on the Someone wagon at one point.
Slotting in: This only works if the oliowagon is scum-approved as Someone was a driving force on the early bandwagon. If so, SaberKitty is probably town and her bandwagon was scummy too. Suspicion lent to Vesuvan and Leonidas (very high) and CA and Mr Stoofer (lower, but still high. Stoofer has the mitigating factor of breaking a tie in favor of the Somewagon). PB would be suspect too but has a claim shielding him. Tomorrow he'd better answer the questions leveled at him in today's discussion though! This may be problematic as Vesuvan seems quite happy to vote Commodore without complaint, suggesting they are not both scum. Neither Vesuvan nor Leonidas (nor CA) voted Someone, but Someone did vote Vesuvan. Coupled with Vesuvan's vote for CA, the suggested scum are Someone; Leonidas; Commodore Amazing. Shadow and Vesuvan come in at considerably less likely.

So,

unvote Commodore Amazing, vote Someone. FOS Commodore and Leonidas.

At best this might bring three scum in. At worst, we'll know a lot more about what our voting patterns signify.

[the silent speaker]

<double post edited out by DP>

[the silent speaker]

<and another...>

[the silent speaker]

We're deadlined in 24 hours. If we take Someone's claim at face value and his innocence as read, then either both Vesuvan and Leonidas are scum or neither are. Assuming neither, the people who come off worst under my scenario are EnterYourNameHere and Mr Stoofer, with Fuldu running a relatively close third. Mr Stoofer also comes off weaker in Axelrod's grand theory. As well, Mr Stoofer already has a vote (from Leonidas) so the best chance I see for a scum lynch is

Unvote: Someone, vote: Mr Stoofer, Mod: requesting deadline extension.

Lynching Stoof will give us almost the same quality information lynching Someone would, and he's more likely now to actually

be

scum.

[the silent speaker]

If there's one thing Mafiascum has taught me, it's either never trust MeMe or always trust MeMe, but I forget which.

[the silent speaker]

Uh, maybe I'm just missing something but where did MeMe accuse Someone of anything based on his role claim? All I saw her do was ask how, given that Someone is a plain townie, he *knows* that Nox is one too. To be honest, I don't know why she asked this as Someone only said he

believed

Nox to be telling the truth, which is far from the same thing; but I wouldn't call that an attack on Someone.

By the way, I checked, and the people still voting for Nox or Someone are MeMe, roland (who

did

suggest that he still thought Someone scummy, despite the fact that Someone was willing to deadline-lynch himself!) The Shadow, LoudmouthLee... and Fuldu and Mr Stoofer. Instead of being a solitary vote for MeMe, why not help bandwagon someone equally scummy if not more and with triple the votes (counting yours)?

[the silent speaker]

That's exactly what I'd do if I were scum in that situation - discredit the hint that is effectively turning vanilla townies into Masons.

This logic can be turned on its head, though. If MeMe's scum, how would she know there's a hint there to discredit? We've established that her leap from "believe" to "know" was unwarranted, so why should she assume that Someone has a hint that needs discrediting to begin with?

[the silent speaker]

So, MeMe, why

did

you leap to the assumption that Someone knew Nox's innocence for sure? You never said.

Nanook, you say you're "more inclined to lynch Nox"? Why? I personally am disinclined to lynch

either

Nox or Someone now.

[the silent speaker]

MeMe:

I didn't assume or say that he knew it. I said that he

can't

know it. Big difference.

But he never said or implied that he

could

. So why say this at all?
Fuldu:

Why? You believe them both unlikely to have counted on the town not remembering that the townie role PM was public knowledge?

No, I just believe both of their role claims. Besides, I never was particularly suspicious of Nox and Someone's willingness to have himself deadline-lynched swayed me. Scum wouldn't look suspicious by not deadline-lynching themselves, so what would Scumone have to gain?

[the silent speaker]

The way you underlined "can't" seemed to be implying that you were responding to a statement or implication that he could. When you said you didn't mean to imply that you were responding to such a thing, I asked why say what appeared to be a simple truism then. That's not a tack change, it's a followup.

"We've established that her leap from "believe" to "know" was unwarranted" was referencing me and Vesuvan, who clearly did take your statement as assuming that Someone claimed to know something.

If Johnny'd said "I KNOW this bridge is safe," Sally'd be a worrywart to argue. But since Someone made it clear that it was a belief, not absolute knowledge, my use of the word is appropriate.

Well, if it's semantics we're arguing, then the conjunction you should have used in the original post is "

So

why wouldn't lynching Nox etc.?" "And" implies a separate question.

Basically, I've been looking at your posts as fairly "on my side" -- but now I'm wondering at your pushing of an issue that no one else is pushing while still giving the appearance of defending me.

Vesuvan was pushing it too. In fact, he's still voting you over it. And if it's a plain statement you want -- as of this post, I don't believe you are scum. Happier?

[the silent speaker]

Why SaberKitty? Surely you don't think SaberKitty's role is SaberKitty, Serial Killer; that would just be WAY too much coincidence. We have a deadline again, and I think we're better served lynching Mr Stoofer today and worrying about SaberKitty tomorrow, when we'll have a better sense of how scum-approved her bandwagon was.

[the silent speaker]

Close-cropped Stoofer summary: He was on the plausibly scummy Saberkitty bandwagon and the plausibly scummy PBug wagon, but not on the not plausibly scummy olio wagon. Further another player I consider to be a townie whose theory mentioned a reason to clear him hinging on Someone being scum; with Someone presumed town, this becomes a circumstantial case against. Further of all the players whom I consider reasonable bets for being scum, he had the best chance of becoming a bandwagon -- an important consideration when another player presumably town is at imminent risk of a deadline lynch (as both Someone and Nox were, though I think neither has the votes for it now).

I could go for a SK lynch if time runs short, especially since town Mr Stoofer greatly increases the odds of scum SaberKitty, but if possible I'd rather get her prodded or replaced and lynch Mr Stoofer today.

[the silent speaker]

roland: 1. The olio wagon seems to not have been scum-backed, looking at the people on it. Mr Stoofer was not one of the people on it, so if they aren't scum, the odds go up that he is. It is possible for the other wagons to have not been scum-backed either, but there's a better chance of it. 2. Looking for people on both the bandwagons of confirmed innocents turns up no hits. I checked. Nobody bandwagoned both PBuG and olio.

[the silent speaker]

I checked a couple of things, and Fuldu's last post told me all I needed to know.

Unvote: Mr Stoofer, vote: SaberKitty

and come what may there should be two more scum to bag tomorrow.

[the silent speaker]

The reason for my late vote switch was as follows. I took it as a presumption that the day 1 oliowagon was clean of scum, and I considered Stoofer a litmus for the SaberKitty bandwagon, too. Only a few people failed to be on both bandwagons, and some of those (MeMe, for one) I had side reasons for believing not scum. Fuldu was one of the remaining suspicious ones, and SaberKitty was another; Mr Stoofer, of course, was not. So when Fuldu jumped on the non-SaberKitty bandwagon at the twenty-third hour, pushing it one past the SaberKitty wagon, I felt sure he was scum trying to protect fellow scum, hence the last-moment vote switch.

Clearly, that didn't work, but equally clearly, assuming a clean oliowagon the day 1 Saberwagon was also not scum-supported. Here are the voting records of those who did not vote olio, and are still alive:
* ...... Ves ...... SK ...... olio ...... Some ...... PBuG
NTW .. no ....... no ...... no ........ yes ......... yes
MeMe .. no ....... no ...... no ........ no ......... yes
Shad .. yes ...... no ...... no ........ yes ........ no
Fuldu .. no ....... no ..... no ......... yes ........ no
EYNH .. yes ..... no ...... no ....... no ........... yes
CA ..... yes ..... yes ..... no ........ no .......... yes
Nox .... no ...... no ....... no ........ no .......... yes

Seven names, and only one of them (Commodore Amazing) who was on the Day 1 Saberwagon. I think we can figure that wagon clean too, and peg the Cmdr. provisionally as town. But notice that no fewer than FIVE names on that list voted for PBuG; Cmdr. A was one, and MeMe was another (I still think she's good) but the other five people all voted either for Someone or for PBuG, and three of the suspicious ones voted for two people now known or presumed to be townies: Nanook, for both Someone and PBuG; Shadow and EYNH, for Vesuvan as well as their late choice.

So the next logical thing to do is crossreference the day 2 bandwagons.
Was on a Somewagon (and is still alive): Commodore, moi, Axelrod, LoudmouthLee, The Shadow... hmm. Two out of five, but only one not being treated as town pending further information. At this time the competing bandwagon was for Nox, who is on the list but rated way down there; that bandwagon got Vesuvan, rolandofthewhite, Mr Stoofer, MeMe, and Fuldu, only the last two of whom interest me and one of those the trusted MeMe.
Then came the Stoofer/Kitty wagons: on Stoof, Leonidas; yours truly; Someone; ... hey wait, here's a vote by Nanook of Nox, keeping her (temporarily) at five, enough for a deadline-lynch!
Anyway, three relatively uninteresting votes so far for Stoofer, plus Vesuvan; Commodore; and Fuldu, whose vote prompted me to jump wagons.
SaberKitty got: LoudmouthLee; MeMe; Nanook; Mr Stoofer; roland; me late; and Nox.
Tallying the big seven's voting records:
* .......... Some ....... Nox ....... Stoof ....... SK
NTW ..... no ........... yes ......... no .......... yes
MeMe .... no .......... yes .......... no ......... yes
Shad ..... yes ......... no ........... no ......... no
Fuldu ..... no .......... yes .......... yes ....... no
EYNH ..... no .......... no ............ no ........ no
CA ........ yes ......... no ............ yes ....... no
Nox ....... no ............ - ............ no ......... yes

If our scum are among these, they did a good job scattering their votes. EYNH in particular managed to lurk his way through day 2 without getting called on it; seven posts and only one vote and unvote. But no wagon got more than three, and in both cases one of those was MeMe, and the third voter on one of them was the target of the other...
Possibly less important notes: Fuldu was the only one on the Noxwagon not also on the Kittywagon; the only vice versa case was Nox, who could hardly be expected to join the wagon on herself. Shadow voted for neither Stoof nor SK, the only other break in the pattern that those who voted Someone voted Stoof and refrained from voting both SK and Nox while those who refrained from voting Someone also refrained from voting Stoof and did vote SK and Nox.

I still think our best bets are Nanook, YourName and The Shadow. But I'm much less sure of it than I was just before the lynch went down. Fuldu and Commodore occupy the next tier; I still believe MeMe, and Nox claimed.

[the silent speaker]

How would NOT being on the Olio wagon be indicitive of someone being scum when Olio turned out to be a townie?

Uh, no. You have it backwards -- being on the oliowagon I'm taking as indicative of NOT being scum. Being on the Saberwagon day one I'm also taking as fairly indicative of not being scum. From there I'm looking for people who do not have either indication of not being scum -- not because they are any scummier for not being on the bandwagons, but because the people who were on them have been ruled out.

What I'm basically getting out of it is "everyone's kind of suspicious, but I believe MeMe -- who's also suspicious."

Essentially the second day's voting patterns were little help and somewhat undermined the conclusions I had drawn from the first day's wagons. That part of my post I was working out as I typed. It's not "everyone's kind of suspicious", more of "These are the three people I find most suspicious -- but less so than I did at nightfall; these two people I find less suspicious than the first three; these two I don't think are suspicious for other reasons, but from a strictly vote-pattern vantage they match the profile and should be included for completeness's sake. The rest don't fit the profile at all."

I'm still missing where the "two more scum to bag tomorrow" comment is explained. Specifically: who are these two scum if Kitty had been a baddie? Who are they now that we know she wasn't? And what did you mean by "more" when, at that point, we'd yet to bag any scum?

I was counting Kitty for one, Stoofer for another (if, as happened, SK was town,) Fuldu (if Kitty had been scum especially) and I think Nanook for the last one.

what I'd really like to know is why, given that SaberKitty wasn't scum, his suspicion of me doesn't seem to have lessened.

It has lessened. If SK had been scum I would have been banging the drums for your head. Instead I rate you fourth or fifth, and I'm much less sure of even the top of my list than I would have been of you had SK been evil. The big giving-me-pause thing is that we have a whole mafia family to root out, so we could easily

have

four more scum.

[the silent speaker]

TSS .. You think that I am scum because of the way I've been voting?

For the most part, yes. But I've also been getting a somewhat scummy vibe from you all game, though I never actually went back for a PBPA. A few things that caught my eye in your posts, now that I am looking at them:

Here I was just gettin ready to vote for someone, and I find that I'm already voting for him.

which implies that you found Someone scummy now, though you had originally voted him as a random. Fair enough. But your next post included this line:

Plus the bit on Someone was mainly for fun on my part.

which implies that your Someone vote was still mainly random!

Need to do something, and between Nox and Someone, I'm more inclined to lynch Nox ..

At this point I asked you why you felt inclined to lynch either at all, since by this point both were strongly probable town. You never answered.

We have four people with votes. Half the votes on the two leaders are by people I find more suspicious than the people they're voting for, and Axelrod's long post has me unimpressed: for one thing, most of his points from the early going are things LML has already been called on and IMO acquitted himself. So I guess I'll

vote: EnterYourNameHere

.

Nox's idea that Cmdr. A's presence on the Stooferwagon suggests it was scum-supported because they would know he wasn't one of their own is rather weak without anything outside to bolster it; after all, they would also know that SaberKitty wasn't one of their own. Added to that, reading scum presence form Cmdr. A's assumes its conclusion. His presence means nothing unless he is scum; you can't say, "Oh, he was there, therefore scum was there, therefore he is one of the scum."
As far as complaining that everybody he's voted for has turned up non-mafia... that applies to every vote cast in the game.

I think the logistics of Leo-the-blocker don't quite work out. If he thought he might have blocked a Stoofer kill night 1, why didn't he accuse him until day

2

? And then he should have blocked Axelrod again night 3, if he thought that block had gotten lucky the first time; blocking Mr Stoofer as Cmdr. A suggests would have been a pretty dumb move as Mr Stoofer was by then too deceased to do any harm. Yet clearly he did not do so, as the Mafia's kill worked just fine. So at the very least Leo's vote for Axelrod is not based on a successful block.

Leonidas is my best bet for a GG. I would feel like one of us is making a mistaking if we're not voting together.

Wha ba fuh? Just because Leonidas is town (and I agree with you on that much, at least) doesn't mean you should vote together. For one thing, he might be wrong. For another, you might be voting for two different scum. Blind following=bad idea.

I appreciate all of your trust in me and my long posts, but Fuldu and Vesuvan are right: the best appreciation I can get for them is for you to judge them on their merits and decide how you want to react to my thoughts.

One more thing:

If you think hunting lurkers is wrong, Axelrod and Nox, then I'll love to watch you modkill 5 players in a game you worked hard to create and mod.

Only five? You wuss.

[the silent speaker]

[double post erased - DP]

[the silent speaker]

Never mind, I brainfarted that we lynched Mr Stoofer instead of SaberKitty. My bad, ignore that.

[the silent speaker]

Now that EYNH is being replaced, voting him is pointless.

Unvote: EYNH. Vote: The Shadow

to try and get something rolling.

Commodore, I think the one-post thing is a post restriction tied to any time he uses his role.

[the silent speaker]

I'd like the images from all three nights. And as full a role description as you can give.

[the silent speaker]

In particular I want to know why you chose not to use your power nights 1 and 3. Also I misread you as indicating that you looked up EYNH last night, yet you posted multiple times today, which didn't jibe. (Rereading I see that you claimed EYNH as your vision night 2, so today's posts don't contradict that.) But if your ability is one-shot, I say put it all out there. You've already told the scum what you are and who you acted on, so withholding this only prevents the town from reading you.

[the silent speaker]

One of the things to consider regarding an ability to confirm the images of the trip is that it may well be important for the player to know something about the individual that is their role.

If that's so, wouldn't

PeaceBringer

also need to know something about everybody in this game too, if he's to make sense of his visions? I dunno, I have a vague bad feeling about this claim, but in the absence of anything concrete I'll stick with my Shadow vote.

Also, I will be on a trip tomorrow through Thursday. Just so you all know.

[the silent speaker]

The first thing I'll say is that CA is as cleared as he can get without a cop declaring him innocent. No one else stepped up to claim the kill, and it has all the earmarks of a vigging.

Axelrod... well, you're right, I don't believe that was coincidental. And Nanook speaks true, if you were creating a day 1 hint that was not the time to do it. Fuldu is also correct that it seldom helps to create that kind of hint unless you intend for it to be found out -- and real docs want to hide. So I have to say that this seems like you were setting up evidence as insurance against later accusations. The one thing I don't understand is why you prepared two alibis, unless you intended to claim whichever one had someone die in it first.
The fact that you tried to save yourself with Cmdr. A's hide

after he made an unassailable claim

is no less worrisome.
Finally, since there was a defense he would have made if innocent, and he

didn't make it

when confronted with his contradiction. Had his 'doc post' been a hint, he could have called attention to the fact that he said "hint" in that very post, which distinguishes it from the presumably coincidental post preceding. (There is no way that could have been coincidence too, because he would have been especially careful of his words in it.) Instead he apologized for his blunder.

Unvote: The Shadow, vote: Axelrod

.

[the silent speaker]

Well, so much for the "no one on the oliowagon is scum" theory.

My thoughts on everybody:
1. Someone -- okay, is there anyone still alive who

doesn't

believe him?
3. NanookTheWolf -- voted fifth for the Axe Lord, which clears him some.
4. MeMe -- as I said before, either never always trust MeMe or never trust MeMe. I believe her to be town.
5. The Shadow -- more on him later, when I vote for him.
7. LoudmouthLee -- very likely town.
10. Fuldu -- his presence on the Axewagon when he didn't have to be is another point in his favor.
12. PeaceBringer -- I don't know what to make of his claim. File him under "maybe".
14. Leonidas -- seems to be our blocker, and thus town.
16. EnterMikehart'sNameHere -- I recall finding EYNH rather scummy before, and most of the remaining alives are people I find specifically not, but we can spare him the rope to hang himself.
17. Commodore Amazing -- almost certainly town.
18. the silent speaker -- you tell me.
20. Nox -- has claimed and

wasn't

horribly scummy, but there's her voting yesterday to consider, too. Another maybe.

Voting patterns, tempered now with the knowledge that Axelrod was scum:
I. Axelrod on day 1 voted olio and Someone, and no other main bandwagons. Olio had Leonidas, Someone, and Vesuvan, all of whom have given good enough accounts of themselves in my eyes that I'm not willing to be part of a lynch of any; me, who I'm obviously against lynching; and PeaceBringer, whose claim is still in the air to me but would be the only one gleaned from that particular bandwagon. Interestingly enough, PB

was

voting Axelrod briefly but unvoted as soon as he claimed. PB's full voting record on day 3: voted Commodore in post 511; his next post, 516, he unvoted in Axelrod's favor; post 520, unvoted the Axe Lord. None of those three posts contained anything in the way of content aside from the votes themselves, unless you count his mentioning that he entertained the idea of visions being related to avatars but discarded it as it would require detailed knowledge of them and any changes in them. All in all, PB looks scummier than townier from this.
II. Axelrod's other bandwagon, Someone, had on it Someone (presumed town), Nanook, The Shadow, and Fuldu. Nanook and Fuldu, of those, voted Axelrod yesterday, which tends to clear them; I lean slightly toward Fuldu being more cleared by it than Nanook, owing to where on the bandwagon they were, but The Shadow is by far the most interesting of the three.
III. On day 2, Axelrod voted: yes for Someone, no for Nox, and no for both Stoofer and Kitty. Looky looky looky: The Shadow had

exactly the same voting pattern

! The only other two people to decline both the dueling bandwagons at end of day were EYNH and PB -- another strike against them. It looks like the scum were content to sit that one out. (Though to be fair, if PeaceBringer is what he claims, he *couldn't* vote.) Nanook and Fuldu both differ in three points, which also conts in their favor.
IV. Axelrod didn't want to lynch Nox, and on day 3 Nox returned the favor, the only person besides The Ever Shadowier Shadow and temporarily PB to vote the competing bandwagon. Otherwose her voting record is unremarkable; she did start the prebably scum-riddled PBuG wagon, but she used reasonable logic to do it, and differed in two of the three day 2 bandwagons not her own from Axelrod's pattern. Looking back, though, I found this post of Nox's very

very

interesting:

Well, the crosses, then distorted crossed does not seem to be anything good.
Reminds me of something you think is good, but in reality isnt.

The symbolism doesnt seem to be role related though.

(Bolding mine.) It doesn't? How do you know, pray? If you're pro-town, you don't know what Mikehart's role name is to judge one way or the other!

Overall,

vote: The Shadow, FOS PB and Nox

. Probably The Shadow and two of PB, Nox and Mikehart are our baddies (Mikehart would be in the FOS but we need to hear more from him before sending him to his scummy doom); I provisionally move Nanook and Fuldu to the "probable town" pile with everybody else already in it.

[the silent speaker]

For all your posting, TSS, I saw nothing until Axelrod was basically dead where you actually considered him scum. Why is that?

Because until I got back from my trip (by which time Axelrod had already bungled his claim), I didn't consider Axelrod scum.

If you'll recall, I had been working from the premise that there had been no scum on olio's bandwagon day 1, a premise now known to be false. Had it been true (as I knew or suspected it to be true about pretty much everybody besides Axelrod independently) naturally my main focus would belong elsewhere. I did not, in fact, completely ignore the part of the game swirling around Axelrod before that, but my contribution along those lines was limited to small notes in larger posts. This, for example, from post 469:

Axelrod's long post has me unimpressed: for one thing, most of his points from the early going are things LML has already been called on and IMO acquitted himself.

[the silent speaker]

But to elaborate on that, TSS was voting me and I was afraid a bandwagon was going to start on me (which, it appears could easily sprout unless I'm incredibly lucky). Obviously it's not easy to defend lurking which I tend to do more often then not.

So, out of fear of a bandwagon forming on you, you went after not whoever you find scummiest, but the target likeliest to deflect attention from you?

The only scum TSS voted for that I didn't was Axelrod

As opposed to all the other multitudes of scum that have been killed in this game...

Nice bit of subtle deflection that nobody seems to have noticed -- unfortunately for you, I was waiting to see if you'd try it.

I never claimed that my vote for Axelrod cleared me, and my reasons today for voting you never once cited your lurking.

Good job trying to make your case against me about those two arguments, but consider yourself called on it.

Commodore:

The only two people he has put pressure on that I don't feel are safe are The Shadow and EYNH/mikehart. Otherwise, it has been Fuldu, me, Leonidas, Vesuvan, SaberKitty, and Stoofer (another good person for scum to go after).

If I get two scum, doesn't that suggest I should be forgiven for the one I didn't get? As regards the 'otherwise' people, Stoofer was a good person for *anyone* to go after, town or scum; Leonidas you're now suggesting is scummy, so why complain that I entertained the idea of putting pressure on him? And I did back off of you a couple of times, and eventually Fuldu too.

Fuldu: I'm guessing you did block MeMe, else you would have already said you didn't, and be voting her over Leo. Since the mafia's kill went through anyway, doesn't it follow that MeMe is not one?

[the silent speaker]

Even if Fuldu can confirm that MeMe knows his role name, MeMe could still be scum. We agreed that if mith were scum, it would be a powerful one.

I don't remember agreeing to that. I remember not disgreeing that mith was a likely power

town

role, though. But Axelrod had no special powers that we know of, and I don't think any of the scum do (with the obvious exception of the GF, assuming there is one). Consider also that there's only one scum group plus a SK, so four members is probable; a four-member group with powers is probably too unbalanced to be.

tss, I blocked you Night Three. Did you get a message telling you that? Did you get my role-name in that message?

I believe you. But I have no idea what your role name is.
I'm also relieved that you committed to a night 3 targeting, as all your other choices could have been faked by anybody; now that you have committed without knowing whether I might say, "aha, I got a result, liar!" (I didn't), you go firmly into my book as Fuldu=town.

But I recommend you ease up on Leo as well as MeMe; he did, after all, vote for (almost certainly) two scum (besides the serial killer who proves nothing).

Speaking of Leo's Scumvote No. 2, has anyone else noticed that Mikehart has posted

once this entire day

? And that once was to say he hadn't read the thread. Lurking this late? Or SCUM?

[the silent speaker]

Lots and lots of scumminess here. The Shadow first.

When I'm behind on my reading and don't really have a defense I come up with a temporary one to buy time.

The only time you can possibly not have a defense and need to concoct a placeholder is when you're scum.

I didn't honestly expect TSS to be lynched.

Then what was the point of voting me? Just throwing your vote away? How does that help anything?
He also tries to pin some suspicion on Commodore Amazing, despite CA having the most unshakable alibi in the game: CA can't be scum, because he was off killing someone else when the scum were killing Vesuvan. And he argues that he shouldn't be held suspicious for lurking becayse he always does; well, Shadow, it hurts the town every time. If you want to help the town, stop doing it!

Look at his reasoning for voting Nanook: A) he voted scum. B) He agreed with an all-but-confirmed pro-town power role. C) He didn't vote a serial killer.
This, he says, is the scummiest player exant in a game with probably three more scum!

We'll get back to Nanook later; inHim is next.
The Shadow's last post -- his very scummy last post -- is said to alleviate inHim's suspicions. He agrees with The Shadow's piffling reasons to suspect Nanook, to the extent of voting him. And he FOSes LoudmouthLee (another very probable town) for no better reason I can see than lurking... fine thing for a twice-replaced role to do.

PB posts (which will also be dealt with later) and inHim says:

This being said, if you fake this role as scum, you won't be as expected to post some of those damning analyses of yours, which might logically point to members of your mafia family.

Did you completely miss everything Axelrod said and did?

Overall this makes me exceedingly confident that probably both, and certainly at least one, of inHim and The Shadow are scum.

inhim- you don't know me enough if you think I would fake a role with a post only once a day posting restriction.

Except... only once have you even

had

a posting restriction. All you have to do is claim you didn't use the night activity, and poof, restriction go byebye.

And then we have Nanook, who claimed "Pookie", which he says is how it's spelled in the role PM... this smacks of badly botched fakery, only it's almost

too

badly botched. I find it very unlikely the PM would say "Pooky" rather than the full PookyTheMagicalBear" to begin with, much less a gross error in spelling. But then, why can't he use his real role name, if he invented Pooky's?

[the silent speaker]

But I think that right now I'm going to Vote: Nanook the Wolf

A: He voted Axelrod, true, but it was at a point where I think he would have considered it a necessary evil.

If this is not meant as an augmentation of your reasoning for voting but only as a deflection of an obvious objection, it is both grossly misphrased and dramatically out of place. The simplest point against interpreting it the way you claim it was meant is that he would only have interpreted it as necessary evil if he were scum. Placing it first on your list of reasons to vote implies that you think he was scum

because

he acted according to 'necessary evil', not the other way around.

B: MeMe was not all-but confirmed pro-town power role at that time;

Liar. MeMe had already told Fuldu she could name his role at will.

C: I was not accusing him for not voting Stoofer. ... I was noting he said he wouldn't follow Leonidas' gut feeling right after Axelrod had just previously voted Leonidas.

No? Let's see.

Post #7, He

didn't vote

along with Leonidas gut feeling about Stoofer.

No mention of complaining about Leonidas's guts. Your point C was that he didn't vote.

InHim:

Did I ever say that I agreed with The Shadow's reasoning? No,

Yes, you did. See?

NanookTheWolf - Very low flier under the radar. Fairly scummy in my books, added to the fact that

I agree with points that The Shadow raises.

It seems you suspected my twice-replaced role for lurking.

There's a bit more to it than that, including EYNH's scummy vibes on day 1 and sheer process of elimination. Your FOS on Lee was for

nothing but

lurking.

I'm not sure I understand what you're asking of me.

I'm commenting on your saying that PB wouldn't post long analyses as scum in this game when Axelrod did just that multiple times.

[the silent speaker]

Yesterday I was sure that at least one of The Shadow and inHimshallibe were mafia, and I stand by that. The Shadow was not mafia.

Vote: inHimshallibe

.

I notice that at the end of the day, there were two townies with votes, one maf and Nanook; one townie had a maf on his bandwagon, the two not-confirmed-townie had only townies, and the other townie had only Nanook -- no one solidly in the townie camp. I would be as happy with a Nanook lynch today.

[the silent speaker]

Commodore, four scum left would mean we started with a five-person mafia, which is ridiculously huge for a game this size. A four-man group is not out of the question, but there's no need to no-lynch when inHim is the next best to a sure thing.

Lee, I agree for the most part with your opinions but swap Nanook and Someone's probabilities. Someone was willing to contribute to his own deadline lynch; I really can't see scum being willing to roll those dice when simply

not

rolling them works just as well (seldom indeed is a person scummy for not wanting to die).

[the silent speaker]

This seems to be a win-win situation.

unvote: inHim, vote: Nanook

. Let's see what you got, magic man.

[the silent speaker]

I see plenty of reason to disbelieve it. I say inHim should definitely save Nanook if he can; if he does, or even if he doesn't and Nanook turns up townie, then MeMe should investigate Leonidas (if she hasn't already) and tell us the result first thing. (If inHim can't save his scum buddy Nanook, this is less critical.)

[the silent speaker]

Unvote

until such time as Leonidas and inHim can react; I think we were one away from a lynch, and I want to hear a couple of assents.

[the silent speaker]

I was waiting for the opportune moment for this, which would have been after Leo chimed in, but it looks like the opportune moment is now.

InHim and Nanook are either both scum or both townies, and the same is true of MeMe and LoudmouthLee. Furthermore, exactly one of inHim and MeMe must be scum. If any one of these has his (or her, in MeMe's case) role demonstrated, all four are absolutely known.
If MeMe is lying, then her knowledge of Leonidas's role suggests that he is the fourth scum (after Axelrod); if she is telling the truth, then not only can inHim not do what he claims, but another scum is the victim. I therefore say that inHim definitely

should

use his power if he can; Cmdr. Amazing should vig tonight, as appropriate (either inHim or LoudmouthLee, but not MeMe or Leo yet); MeMe should investigate me, and if we're both alive come morning, announce her result first thing. That way we get as much confirmation as is humanly possible while minimizing the number of mislynches.

Argument in favor of MeMe telling the truth: 1. She hasn't looked particularly scummy all game, and LML still less. 2. She claimed (but did not demonstrate) that she knew Fuldu's role before it was general knowledge, and Fuldu cannot have been in cahoots with her.
Argument in favor of inHim telling the truth: 1. His role can still be confirmed, and as MeMe herself observed, he has repeatedly declined to weasel out of confirming when the opportunity was offered. 2. It is just possible that MeMe is a scum bodysnatcher, but it is not possible that inHim is a scum blocker else the scum could never lose.
Miscellaneous: LML made the assumption, today, that Leonidas is a power role. Yesterday I could have seen it, as Leo was widely believed to be the blocker until Fuldu claimed otherwise, but today such an assumption has no reason.

If you have a good reason for disagreeing with the above plan, say so

now

. inHim, unless someone comes up with a really good reason and that right fast, protect Nanook or be vigged.

[the silent speaker]

If inHim saves Nanook, that proves inHim and, according to you, Nanook as well. By your earlier statement, that makes me the guilty half of your "exactly one of" assertion. But you advocate Lee's vigging rather than mine. You also indicate that if I can state your role tomorrow, you'll take that as confirmation about me. So...why on earth should CA vig LmL who you say has identical alignment as I do?

Because given the choice and all else being equal, I'd rather let the person who can provide corroborative evidence for her claim on cue (if it's a true claim) be given the opportunity to do so just in case something is good and screwy. It's an extra failsafe.

Now, if inHim can't save Nanook...that means that he's guilty and I'M innocent (according to your theory), LoudmouthLee is also innocent, and Nanook isn't.

Absolutely, but to vig or not to vig Nanook will be something of a moot question at that point, as inHim's failure to save him will mean he'll be dead. Thus, inHim is the chosen target.

I can't help but wonder if the person who makes such a statement is hoping for an easy one/two innocent take-out.

If that were my goal, all I had to do was keep my trap shut. Nanook would have been quietly lynched, the town might be in lynch-or-lose tomorrow and I could have made exactly the same assertive post I made today in a much more advantageous position. Instead I'm advocating a failed lynch, which guarantees inHim's and Nanook's townieness or else kills them as scum. Also, if there is no vigging, we have an extra day before lynch-or-lose sets in.

Show me what I'm missing.

Consider: posit that you're town, inHim's town, LML's town (as he's the one gets vigged if Nanook survives) and Nanook is town (as allied with inHim); what then? I'm town, Someone is town, PB is probably town, Nox got a townieish PB investigation which fits with her claim, CA is town. There aren't enough people left to be scum.
Quick question. When exactly did you acquire roland's role?

CA:

I will not vig inHim or anyone else based solely on tss's analysis.

If we try inHim's role today, and he fails the test, then independently of the rest of my analysis, he lied. Vig inHim based on that. The bonus is that inHim's failure costs a second scum, as Nanook can hardly be town with inHim scummy. But the point is that inHim, taken on his own merits alone, must in such a case be scum, because he'll be proven to have lied about his role.

We may want to "no-lynch" at some point. Then, we can pick our best lynch candidate and test inHim's ability at the same time.

If we test inHim's ability -- as we should -- the effect

is

a no-lynch. And Nanook is surely our best bet for guinea pig, since town or scum, he and inHim must be the same. It's a two-for-none deal.

[the silent speaker]

As I said before, I PM'd DP within 10 minutes of roland's death scene. DP responded within minutes.

Ah, a day action, then. That alleviates my last niggling concerns about an apparent contradiction I thought I had found, but I caught my own error before posting. (That, by the way, is the other part of the answer to "what am I missing," but I think you'll forgive me for clarifying before telling you what the issue was.)

And what makes you think that everyone will buy you saying "yep -- that's my role" any more than they should buy Leonidas saying "yep -- that's my role" (if he ever gets here, that is)?

Besides the fact that we can't all three be collaborating scum? My confirmation doesn't

negate

Leonidas's. If people find his confirmation better than mine, so what?

Oh, dur on Nanook being dead -- but, devil's advocate here, what if the lynch goes through and he's town? Does your whole theory fall apart or will you excuse inHim's failure?

Then inHim lied and should be vigged or lynched. I will worry about my theory after.

Well...what if Nanook and you are scum together?

I've been pressuring Nanook for a few days now. I was third on his bandwagon just today.

Why "must" they be the same?

For the same reason you and LML must be the same -- player associations. You think it's coincidence that the two people I've announced have to be scum if inHim and Nanook are town are two of the same people I've made a point in previous days of trusting?
Besides, who's a better guinea pig? I think Nanook's town if and only if inHim is, so we can't lose. You think Nanook's scum one way or the other, which makes him still a better choice than someone you think is town.

[the silent speaker]

<double post deleted - DP>

[the silent speaker]

It's funny how you people who strongly oppose no-lynch even when it's tactically correct, advocate this scenario

When would it be tactically correct, if not now? Especially as we have a vig to make up missed lynches for us.

Also, confirming inhim's role does not esentially prove him innocent.

As claimed, it cannot possibly be a mafia role. A mafia lynch-blocker without limit would never lose.
Further, who do you peg as the scum? If Nanook is one, I say inHim must also be. If Nanook isn't one, why are we killing him?

[the silent speaker]

I am indeed Internet Stranger. And now I don't know what to think, except that Lee pretty much has to be scum.

[the silent speaker]

DPTA:

Vote: LoudmouthLee.

[the silent speaker]

DPTA=double post to add.

Commodore, who do you think are scum? With all the people who by claim are not scum, there's practically nobody left.

And the time to use inHim's ability was yesterday. Now it will hurt more than it will help, because he will almost certainly be saving a scum in a situation that is at least near to lynch-or-lose.

[the silent speaker]

And now it's my turn. Hint: What role haven't we seen yet? Who could assert with certainty that another player is scum? That's right. I'm the cop.

Night 1: MeMe. I was told MeMe was mafia.
Night 2: LoudmouthLee. I was told LML was mafia. At this point I figured it was reasonable to take insanity as a working presumption pending contradiction, hence my repeated stated trust of MeMe and LML. Please note that contrary to LML's claim, I WAS NOT BLOCKED.
Night 3: NanookTheWolf. I got no result; we now know that this is because Fuldu blocked me.
Night 4: EYNH/Mikehart (now inHim). I was told not mafia and started looking for reasons to get him lynched. But Mikehart's failure to post meant that inHim got replacement's courtesy (I'm against lynching anyone the very day they replace into the game if it can be avoided, as it discourages people from replacing) and went after my scummiest noninvestigation instead.
Night 5: Nanook again. This time I was told not mafia. Hence I advocated using inHim's power: if he could prove that

he

wasn't mafia, it followed uthat I had to be sane and he would save a townie, while if he couldn't save Nanook because he was scum, it followed that I was insane and the person he failed to save was scum too.
Night 6: Leonidas. I was told not mafia. This doesn't preclude the possibility that he is a GF, but as MeMe correctly guessed my rolename there's no real evidence that he is. I wouldn't expect to get too many more "mafia"s anyway, since I already got two and Axelrod doesn't seem to have been the godfather, but the result is out there, at least.

In conclusion,

confirm vote: LML and you should all be following me like the sheep you are. Rah rah rah lynch.

[the silent speaker]

Are you nuts, CA? Or are you just a scum assassin? I'm the

cop

.

One further note: Lee must be scum from his role claim alone. He says he blocked me night 2 and therefore thinks the no-kill was due to me being blocked. Setting aside that I'm the cop and got a result, why oh why would Lee not block me again at his next opportunity? But there were kills on night 3, when Fuldu blocked me, and every night since. Thus Lee is shown to be a liar and should die.

[the silent speaker]

Yes, Commodore. After I had been told "MeMe and LML are mafia" I stated that I believed them town. Why?

Because I believed I was insane.

As I quite clearly said, in my original role claim! That belief didn't start to shift until inHim claimed a role that would be virtually impossible for scum to fake.

[the silent speaker]

First, let me reiterate the force of my claim, since I seem to be surrounded by idiots.

I am the cop. No one else has claimed cop, and no one else has died and turned out to be a cop. If you think I lied and am not the cop, then you think there was NO COP IN THE GAME FROM DAY ONE. And if you think this, then Lee has a bridge to sell you, because that's a dumb thing to think. Look at Lee's claimed role, and then come back and tell me that was put in the game but the role of cop is not.

Second: point-for-point refutations.

I can prove my abaility and my innocence by allowing me to block tonight. If I fail to block someone with a role...

You mean like you did night 2? No matter what happens, you can claim that you did block and the other person must be scum.

You didn't mention MeMe here. That is strange.

If I had, don't you think I would have been jumped on for saying, "Yes, she did as she promised, but I still think she's scum"? As it is, I

don't

know whether she's scum with an ability, a really good guesser, or whether there's something else splendidly weird going on.

Where does this ["The Shadow was not mafia."] come from? You hadn't investigated The Shadow.

It came from his being DEAD and revealed nonscum!

Day one, you only referenced MeMe by agreeing with her. What's that about? Did you think you were insane that soon?

The thought had crossed my mind; after all, ahead of time the odds are three or four to one that any given player will be pro-town, so one guilty result is at least as likely to be due to insanity as to guilt. And if I

was

sane, I didn't want her thinking I was any danger to her.

Third: offense.
Remember yesterday, when I came out of the blue with the pronouncement that inHim and Nanook were both scum or both town, and whichever they were the reverse was the case with both MeMe and LML? (There, by the way, is your "cop getting results out there in case of death, CA.) There is no conceivable reason I should have done this as scum. I would have been sitting pretty there: a townie was about to get lynched, the town was about to go into lynch-right-or-lose if (as is generally assumed, including by me) there are three scum still alive, and no one had uttered one word against me. Yet all of a sudden I stuck my neck way out, and practically begged inHim to use his power to save Nanook, thus taking the town OUT of risk of lynch-or-lose.

The fact that it

is

lynch-or-lose -- now, because I was overridden yesterday -- is why I'm fighting this still. If inHim fails -- because of blocking issues, or worse, because he has some kind of strange godfather role -- lynching him tomorrow will be moot because there won't be a tomorrow. And the fact that MeMe and LML are so insistent on my resting my life into inHim's hands makes me worry that they know something.

Look at this, people.

My thoughts on the people who are left (I'll include myself)

1. Someone - Claimed Townie. Has lurked his way after that. Possibility of scum - 75%
3. NanookTheWolf - Claimed townie, misspelled Pooky / Pookie. Possibility of scum - 50% (i find the fact that pooky is misspelled to be helpful rather than damaging)
4. MeMe - I believe the claim of Mith. Seems to have a nice pro-town power ATM. Possibility of scum - Slim and None.
7. LoudmouthLee - Fought had for the Axel lynch, and is not scum, trust me on this one. Chance of scum - 0%
12. PeaceBringer - Visions could just be a farce, but nailed InHim to be Jeep. More on inHim later, but is possible that they are BOTH scum together. Chance of Scum - 50%
14. Leonidas - So far, so good... assumed power role, and also fought for Axel's death. Chance of scum - 15-20%
16. inHimshallibe - Probably scum. Jeep and Antrax could be in cahoots. Chance of scum, 80%
17. Commodore Amazing - probably pro-town, definately a killing entity. Could be a second SK, but i doubt it. Chance of scum, 15%

18. the silent speaker - Played like a pro-town maven this entire time. Chance of scum, 10%

20. Nox - Townie claim, dropped off the face of the earth, chance of scum - 75%

This was

yesterday.

As late as that, Lee judged me "a pro-town maven". Yet he claims he's been blocking me since day

2

and the lack of a kill then makes me suspect! Which is it, Lee? Have you been blocking me on suspicion, or have you been sure I was a good guy?

The flavor text was along the lines of using my super scum-finding abilities to find the scum in real life, by the way.

And once more, for emphasis:

I am the cop. No one else has claimed cop, and no one else has died and turned out to be a cop. If you think I lied and am not the cop, then you think there was NO COP IN THE GAME FROM DAY ONE. And if you think this, then Lee has a bridge to sell you, because that's a dumb thing to think. Look at Lee's claimed role, and then come back and tell me that was put in the game but the role of cop is not.

[the silent speaker]

What's this what's this?

--I'm the logical lynch for town who believes tss to be a sane cop.

And yet when Nox, Leo and inHim call her bluff:

Oh my word -- I can't believe I'm this close to a lynch this fast. Please don't seal the deal. If there are ANY town players on my wagon, you've got to unvote! Just wait until after a thorough read!

This deserves to be pointed out, though:

If TSS is not scum, he's a cop, and since Nanook's death, we know he's sane. Meaning I'm innocent

Strictly speaking, you could still be a godfather. I don't think it's particularly likely, but it is possible.
And now LoudmouthLee comes to MeMe's defense complaining about speed of bandwagon, specifically saying:

Is MeMe was scum, would her bandwagon have caught so quickly? Seems that the scum were REALLY looking for a lynch of MeMe.

Priceless. So now the scum are coordinating online time too? Particularly as one of the three was Nox, who hasn't been so much as a blip on his radar all day.

I CAN PROVE MY ROLE TONIGHT.

THIS IS A BLATANT LIE. There are only two people who have claimed roles he can block. MeMe is scum with him and his 'blocking' her proves nothing. He has already claimed to have blocked me once, maybe twice or thrice, and I have contradicted him on all points.
Also note, he has avoided the question of exactly when he used his power and on whom, except for claiming to have used it on me night 2. Come on, Lee, just cook up a lie already; it'll be in keeping with everything else you've said today.

the way he answers votes against him is along the lines of “there has to be a cop in this game” and “my role is more likely than Samadhi’s role” rather than explaining why he investigated the people he investigated.

Nobody had asked me my reasons that I saw. Since you are doing so now:
MeMe -- a good enough player that I wanted to be sure of her early.
Lee -- I believed him a likely innocent (how's that for irony?) and so figured he would make a workable sanity check.
Nanook -- short-listed for plausible scum given my voting-record theory.
EYNH/mikehart (now inHim) -- short-listed, and the recent replacement meant that he'd have an alibi for all prior scummy behavior.
Nanook again -- The Shadow's vote-plus-confirmation-as-town make him seem a good place to look.
Leonidas -- MeMe, who I now knew was scum, got his name right.

[the silent speaker]

I think having inHim use his power will mean one of two things: 1. he's town, 2. he's a GF with a one-shot ability. In other words, about what we know now. I'm confident enough in the scumminess of MeMe and Lee that I don't see a huge amount of gain in it; I am happy lynching either of you, and whichever of you two we lynch, if the lynch fails we should probably lynch the same person tomorrow.
For the record, it's still possible that Commodore Amazing is the third scum (his special was a one-shot extra kill, which is easier to balance against than a lynch blocker), although inHim's refusal to vote MeMe

when her death is entirely in his hands

is indeed very suspicious -- provided he

doesn't

have that ability, which (even if he *is* scum) is up in the air. MeMe appears to have one; Lee appears to not, or at any rate he lied about its application.

Also note, he has avoided the question of exactly when he used his power and on whom, except for claiming to have used it on me night 2. Come on, Lee, just cook up a lie already; it'll be in keeping with everything else you've said today.

I want to hear Lee's answer to this. He said he blocked me night 2 and implied that he blocked me another time or times, but he has never given his night choices straight out. This is

stupefyingly

scummy play on his part and there is no reason I can conceive of for a pro-town player to hide his night actions, and reasons for them, from the town at this point.

I also want to hear inHim tell us what the mod said in response to the questions he damn well should have already asked. That, and a vote count, and a replacement for Someone.

[the silent speaker]

I asked when you wanted me too, but DP is away right now.

Ooops. Cancel my demand for answers from inHim. Anyway, we're not going anywhere until DP gets back, so when you do hear from him, just let us know.

[the silent speaker]

It seemed logical to me that if anyone fully trusts tss to be sane, they should trust inHim to be innocent. If tss died, he'd be scum and inHim would be exposed as well.

Not if inHim is the godfather. Which I am not sold on 100%, as I have said, but I'm also unwilling to stake my life on

not

being so.

LEE HAS STILL NOT GIVEN RESULTS. This should dispel doubt in any town's mind that he is lying about having results to give.

[the silent speaker]

WTF? I can't vote *both* Lee and MeMe. We haven't come to consensus that I've seen over which one dangles today, we're not doing anything until d8p chimes in... and for that matter, you yourself said, "I just can't do it," regarding voting MeMe, so you have no room to complain about which scum my vote is sitting on.

[the silent speaker]

Because I look innocent. How could that be? Because I am innocent.

But of course. It isn't like you're well known as a very good player who could look innocent as scum. Not at all, nope.

Of course you're going to act like his investigations are non-negotiable and that anyone questioning them should be "lynched on [that] alone."

This is a misrepresentation of what Leo said. He did not say that you should be lynched for questioning my sanity; he said you should be lynched for saying that Nanook's finding doesn't indicate anytihng

because it was revealed after Nanook died.

d8p:
If this were a gambit, I did it really stupidly. First I announced

yesterday

that MeMe and LML were both of opposite alignment from Nanook, and begged inHim to use his role to save Nanook if he could, which would have

forestalled

lynch-or-lose. After that I named two guilties, when by definition of LOL, all I had to do was name one and get them lynched. Why make a needless enemy out of (say) Lee, who had been declaring me "a pro-town maven" for most of the game? Third, I acknowledged MeMe getting my role right while denying that Lee had blocked as he claimed. I didn't have to do either; both had put their own roles out before I did mine. Were I scum with or without them, I could have acknowledged both their roles or neither. Had I said, "Gotcha! I'm actually quercitron the cop!" or the like, it would have been strightforward my word against MeMe's, and Leonidas would probably have gotten lynched in the bargain. Instead I injured my own case by acknowledging that MeMe

had

done what she claimed to be able to do but still insisting that I had gotten a guilty result on her.

Also please note that LoudmouthLee has mysteriously clammed up about the blocks he never made. He has claimed one, and that one contradicted

and

implausible prima facie for other reasons. He's scum, I tells ya, scum who knows he's botched his claim but good and is hoping no one notices. Well, Lee my boy, consider yourself noticed.

[the silent speaker]

LOUDMOUTHLEE HAS JUST CONFESSED.

I believe, as of right now, TSS to be INNOCENT. I believe he's a victim of a BAD ROLE.

I have CONTRADICTED HIS ROLE CLAIM. It matters not a whit whether I'm sane, insane, random, useless or other. He says he blocked me night 2 and I WAS NOT BLOCKED. Yet he believes me INNOCENT!!!

Vote LoudmouthLee now. Do not save him, inHim. LoudmouthLee MUST DIE.

[the silent speaker]

Vote: MeMe.

The sudden emergence of a question (which appears to mean, among other things, that you can

not

save whoever, but have to pick someone the night before) and the death of Cmdr. Amazing (who I had found a strong enough possible alternative to investigate last night) leave me convinced that inHim has a fair shot at being the godfather, but we can worry about that after we deal with the known scum.

--PeaceBringer got clues about night actions and could have spotted a killing, if he'd used his ability more often.

We don't know what PeaceBringer could and could not have seen.

[the silent speaker]

Well, he

did

have a cop announcing he was town...

I still think it's really funny that my first two investigations were mafia, thus convincing me that I must be insane. And it was actually inHim claiming something provable that clued me in to what was going on just in time! By the way, inHim, if pressed to it did you have a save, or was that whole cloth?