Newbie 865 - Game over!

[imkingdavid]

Ok now, where were we before the day ended? Oh yes, I was working on typing up a post. Here it is...

@TF: here's what I've done so far (correct me if I'm wrong):
Votes: vote RPG on admittedly inaccurate charges, vote TF for pressure, re-vote TF by accident, vote NCJ for pretty much everything above
FoS/Stated Suspicion: FoS tracker, FoS gayle

Unless I missed anything. Having 3 different votes and 2 different FoS's by page 8 is hardly a reason for suspicion. It shows that I'm looking around and weighing possible options. If I had, say, 5 or 6 different baseless votes by now and was throwing suspicion at every person without much consistency, then there might be a cause of concern.

Anyway, at this point, I'm suspicious of Gayle, as I stated before the end of day 1, and still for the same reasons. Also, Canada and CommieX need to post or be replaced. It's been a while since we've heard from either of them, and it's not helpful at all to have absent players in a game with only (now) 7 people.

[Canada]

I'm still alive - I had not realized it had been so long since I posted. Sorry about that :/.

~Canada

[Toon Fighter]

New analysis (sp):

PaltryExcuse, tracker, imkingdavid, Gayle, RPG*Twilight (the players who voted for NCJ) are likely innocent, as they could have voted for tracker (who was also at L-1/L-2 for a lot of time). We even got confirmation on RPG, after his death.

Now, the players remaining are CommieX, me and Canada. Logic dictates that one of them is Mafia.

I alredy had suspected CommieX in the early game. Canada just seems to be too absent from the game when NCJ was being accused. So...

Vote: CommieX

[PaltryExcuse]

That's some dangerous thinking. It is also possible that NCJ was bussed. I doubt it was by tracker, just because if I read NCJ's play properly, he was aiming for a tracker lynch.
For your personal viewing: Bussing
I will post on my thoughts on who is likely the scumpartner later.

[Toon Fighter]

I know about bussing, but if I were mafia, I would support the existing bandwagon against tracker rather than start a new one. It would be a lot easier and I wouldn't lose a scum partner in the process.

When scum sees a player like tracker, seen as a suspect by a lot of the village, and alredy with 3-4 votes, I think they would vote for him.

[PaltryExcuse]

Ack, sorry for assuming.
Here's why I thought it was possible bussing (not necessarily true):
NCJ's only 'decision' was to support the lynch of tracker. Would the mafia join in that and be so close to his/her partner? Also, I firmly believe that the argument against tracker was weak and circumstantial, hence why I went looking elsewhere. If the other scum wants to separate themselves from the other, and maybe get some town cred for voting a destructing partner, they vote for him. Hence: Gayle, IKD, or RPG. With RPG as revealed town, that leaves possible bussers as IKD or Gayle. IKD and Gayle did not vote on the lynch until NCJ's blatant lack of defense and his reasonless finger-pointing.
I'm not sure either way that I feel there was a bussing or not, but I'm asking you to not throw it out of your mind... unless you're scum in which case we'll get ya.

...still, mafia not being on the Day 1 lynch of their partner does sound logical.

[PaltryExcuse]

@Canada: Right now I'm finding you mightily suspicious. You didn't seem to take a clear side in any direction at any point in Day 1. This could be interpreted as scum waiting to put their vote on the right person at the right time. We have not seen any real scumhunting from you. I'm curious as to your suspicions the most right now as wishy-washy thinking is troublesome.

[Gayle]

Now, keep in mind this post is based just on a quick review.

The people who voted for NCJ were PaltryExcuse, tracker,imkingdavid,myself, and RPG. RPG is (was) confirmed town. Tracker is likely town. PaltryExcuse started the wagon on NCJ, so he is likely town. I happen to know that I am town. And for now I suspect that IKD is town.

Note that of the people that voted for tracker, only RPG, the confirmed townie, voted for NCJ.

In my mind, the people we should focus on first are CommieX, Canada, and Toon Fighter.

It alphabetical order:

Canada

@Canada: Right now I'm finding you mightily suspicious. You didn't seem to take a clear side in any direction at any point in Day 1. This could be interpreted as scum waiting to put their vote on the right person at the right time. We have not seen any real scumhunting from you. I'm curious as to your suspicions the most right now as wishy-washy thinking is troublesome.

Exactly right. There is not much more to add to that.

CommieX

Though he only has 10 posts, I think his scumhunting has more substance than Toon Fighter, who has 19. Too bad he will likely be replaced.

Toon Fighter

He seems to be scumhunting, but there is not a lot of substance. He has voted for CommieX based on his 'earlier suspicions', but a quick glance back reveals that his earlier suspicions are a 'hunch'. I don't understand why he would vote for CommieX over Canada.


As far as suspisciousness (firefox says its not a word) goes Toon Fighter = Canada > CommieX (IMHO).

VOTE: Toon Fighter

[Gayle]

Unless I missed anything. Having 3 different votes and 2 different FoS's by page 8 is hardly a reason for suspicion.

Anything can be a reason for suspicion. Voting for so many different people can be found suspicious. Especially when you do such a thing as forget who you voted for.

Anyway, at this point, I'm suspicious of Gayle, as I stated before the end of day 1, and still for the same reasons. Also, Canada and CommieX need to post or be replaced. It's been a while since we've heard from either of them, and it's not helpful at all to have absent players in a game with only (now) 7 people.

Please tell me exactly what you are suspicious of that I have yet to addressed.

[tracker]

right, i said i would do a more detailed analysis of some of the players in this game and I will do that today and tommorow. For now I would just encourage CommieX to post. Toon Fighter and Canada need to post something a little deeper.

[PaltryExcuse]

What made you suspect that IKD was town? At the end of the day, I, NCJ and IKD were your top suspects.

[imkingdavid]

I'll echo others in saying that you can't rule out people just because they were or weren't on NCJ's wagon. There's always the possibility of bussing, no matter how likely or unlikely it may seem.
Yes, analyzing lynching wagon data can be helpful, but it should not be made the basis of a case against someone.

Anything can be a reason for suspicion. Voting for so many different people can be found suspicious. Especially when you do such a thing as forget who you voted for.

I see your point, and I understand that you can't always just throw away something that looks suspicious. I'm just saying that I don't feel that I have been changing suspects that often in relation to other people, nor do I feel that I have changed suspects more often than is acceptable. If you feel different, so be it.

Please tell me exactly what you are suspicious of that I have yet to addressed.

It's not whether or not you address suspicions, it's whether or not I still find you scummy for it.

Anyway, as a summary:
-You seemed overeager to stay on everyone else's good side (you changed your mind on hammering simply because I commented on how it might not be a good idea. I still feel that if you felt strongly enough to hammer before I posted, you should have felt strongly enough after I posted. I was simply trying to make sure people knew how much time was left.)
-Your suspicions on tracker flip flopped from one post to the next. You said who they changed to (myself, PE and ncj), but I don't see where you said why or how you changed your suspicions so quickly.
-Now it's day 2 and you immediately drop all suspicions of the previous day (namely on myself and PE), since "PE started the wagon on NCJ" and "for now I suspect that IKD is town". And you accuse me of changing suspicions a lot?

EBWO-Looking at the thread: I just noticed that PE posted the same thing as my third point. I hadn't noticed that post until just now. So please answer to that at least.

@mod: please replace CommieX

[tracker]

still here, and I finished my reread of Gayle's posts. Something is striking a cord with me on here but I can't find anything that would be the cause of it. I don't view him as particulary scummy. Yes, he's wishy-washy and was an active lurker but he seems to be picking up on the activity and I can't find anything that tells me scum.

Not sure how much time I have left on here but I'm going to try and reread IKDs posts sometime day and post something tommorow.

[Gayle]

What made you suspect that IKD was town? At the end of the day, I, NCJ and IKD were your top suspects.

-Now it's day 2 and you immediately drop all suspicions of the previous day (namely on myself and PE), since "PE started the wagon on NCJ" and "for now I suspect that IKD is town".

What changed between day 1 and 2 is that we have confirmed town and confirmed scum. As simple as it might sound, IKD voted for NCJ when he only had two votes. If I think the people who voted for NCJ are likely town, it only makes sense to focus on the others.

I'm just saying that I don't feel that I have been changing suspects that often in relation to other people, nor do I feel that I have changed suspects more often than is acceptable. If you feel different, so be it.

I was saying that it is ridiculous to just outright say that something isn't suspicious or 'hardly a reason for suspicion'.

And you accuse me of changing suspicions a lot?

No, I was commenting on the 'hardly a reason for suspicion' as I say above. I will say this though, changing suspicions a lot is different from changing votes alot.

You seemed overeager to stay on everyone else's good side (you changed your mind on hammering simply because I commented on how it might not be a good idea. I still feel that if you felt strongly enough to hammer before I posted, you should have felt strongly enough after I posted. I was simply trying to make sure people knew how much time was left.)

Here's the thing. I don't want to get lynched. Getting nk'd is a better way to lose than getting lynched. And as I've said before, I

didn't

feel strongly enough.

Your suspicions on tracker flip flopped from one post to the next. You said who they changed to (myself, PE and ncj), but I don't see where you said why or how you changed your suspicions so quickly.

You are correct in that I never stated the why, and I am not about to make a detailed post now either, as I think it is now irrelevant. I'd like to point out that changing suspicions is 'hardly a reason for suspicion'.

reread IKDs posts

With IKDs post count and trackers 'review' speed, this could take some time.


In other news, What does everyone think of

Toon Fighter

?

[imkingdavid]

Alright, that' makes sense. You seem to be answering questions without getting overly defensive in your tone. I'll look into TF in a while.

[Elmo]

Day 2, Vote Count #1

CommieX <- Toon Fighter
Toon Fighter <- Gayle

Not voting: Canada, CommieX, PaltryExcuse, tracker, imkingdavid

The

deadline

is Wednesday, 17th December 20:00 UTC, which is 18 days, 15 hours and 11 minutes from this post. If deadline hits, there will be No Lynch.
With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

Looking for Canada & CommieX replacements.
edit: Hercule Poirot replaces Canada. Thanks!

[PaltryExcuse]

On ToonFighter:
The major thing that bothers me about ToonFighter is that his case on CommieX seems completely gut based, and now is voting based on that along with the fact he believes the scum was not on the NCJ lynch.
Quoting CommieX is, showing what exactly your gut is rankled by, would probably be helpful in this situation. He has very little to work with, so I'm curious as to what in that you are finding suspicious.

On Canada (replaced by Hercule Poirot):
In other news, Canada is still more scummy in my opinion. For me, over half of his posts are apologies for not posting enough, or just complaining about quote tags. This, plus extremely wishy-washy behaviour is not exactly what I'd call pro-town. I'm really getting the feeling he's looking for a place to put his vote.
His only saving grace: one of the few times he was active was when tracker was at L-1. He could've hammered, although his cautious behaviour with his vote could also imply he didn't want to look suspicious for placing the final vote on someone townie.
I'll wait for Hercule Poirot to catch up, and give some feedback. If I don't like what I see, I'll be voting for this slot.

[Gayle]

Eh? Canada got replaced? Didn't he post on the 27th?

[PaltryExcuse]

Actually... that's a good point.

@Mod: Did Canada request a replacement? And if so, did he leave any reasons why?

[Hercule Poirot]

I'm done catching up. First of all, I don't know if Canada asked to be replaced. I was only informed that there was a spot open for a replacement here. Maybe the mod missed Canada's post on the 27th, and I will have to step down from the game, or maybe he really asked to be replaced. If it was just a mistake, I don't mind giving Canada back his spot.

...Though I am a little bothered that I read all 9 pages before I noticed that Canada had posted on the 27th.

Well, in the off chance I'm really allowed to play, let me comment on the game:

Impressive, catching a scum on the very first day. Well, feel free to shoot questions at me. I don't really have any since I was able to read the entire topic, but you guys know nothing about me. Ask me anything.

[Gayle]

Since you've just read the entire thread and have it fresh in your mind, does anyone in particularly seem suspicious to you?

[Hercule Poirot]

Toon Fighter. For this post:

The day has been getting slow... With NCJ missing, what can we do? It's useless to keep building cases against him. It didn't bring him bak, and doesn't seem it will.

If you are so certain he is scum, maybe we should be looking into his supposed partner. It likely isn't tracker, as NCJ voted for him when he was at L-2. It likely isn't PE, after the strong arguments between the two (or maybe it IS him, WIFOM). Who is it? RPG? Gayle? Me?

IKD changed suspects again. Just noticing it.

Considering that we know that NCJ is guilty...Defending NCJ, even though it's less incriminating in context, it just struck me as weird.

Also, let's put ourselves in the final mafia member's shoe: They are alone, versus 8 players. What would they do? Try to act safely. Such as accusing someone who can't defend themselves, someone who is very inactive, like CommieX, who is being replaced right now.

I'm not going to accuse Toon Fighter yet though, especially since I don't even know if I'm going to be allowed to keep playing the game. Also because I want to talk to everyone in this topic so I can get a feeling of what they are.

Also, I consider Tracker innocent. He was the one who built the case against the dead mafia member. Let's see who voted against Tracker...

tracker (4) <- RPG*Twilight, CommieX, Toon Fighter, Neo-con John

RPG is dead.
Neo con john is mafia.
Therefore, either CommieX or Toon Fighter is the remaining mafia member. I'm more willing to go with Toon Fighter, but I could be wrong. Eh bien monami, I'd say we need to focus on those two.

[PaltryExcuse]

@Hercule Poirot: You bring up an interesting point. That post could read like a distraction tactic. However, I would suggest a PBPA (Player by player analysis) in order to give your thoughts on all those left in the game.

One thing:

Also, I consider Tracker innocent. He was the one who built the case against the dead mafia member.

I could've sworn that was me.

[Hercule Poirot]

My mistake, confused you two. Sorry about that. I'm still fairly sure Tracker is innocent though.

Because of this:

tracker (4) <- RPG*Twilight, CommieX, Toon Fighter, Neo-con John

The mafia member voted on him. It would still be possible to turn things around.

Assuming Tracker was a mafia member, then it would be like this:

RPG+CommieX+Toon voting on tracker.
Tracker and Neo-con John voting on a random innocent townie.

3 vs 2 votes. Wouldn't be too hard to change things. Just one vote and they could turn the situation around. It might have been risky, but it could have paid off big time. If tracker were a mafia member, the mafia goon wouldn't have voted on him.

More importantly, one more vote and Tracker would have been killed. Why wasn't he? Because people weren't that convinced he was guilty. No one wanted to be the hammer vote. But the mafia wouldn't care. If they saw that opportunity, they would take it.

In a situation where not only you, but four other people were also wrong, there is no need for a lot of explaining. A simple sorry will do.

So I believe that if the mafia could have gotten a fifth vote against Tracker, they would. So why didn't they? Because they already had 2 votes against him.

With only two options remaining, either CommieX or Toon Fighter has to be the second mafia member.

Toon Fighter defended the goon, so I would bet he is the killer rather than CommieX.

Player by player analysis? I will do it if you wish, but first I would like every single player to answer 1 question I have, would that be alright?

How good do you think our odds of winning this game are?

Of course, it would be very rude of me to ask that without answering.
I'll say, 97%. Unless something goes horribly wrong, I'm sure we can win this.

[Toon Fighter]

I never defended him. In my post, I supposed he was scum (like the rest of the town was thinking) and analised the game from that POV. I posted my thoughts on who might be his scum partner. I, however, wasn't sure we was scum, and that was why I didn't accuse him. I just assumed he was I went on from there. What would the implications be if he were scum?

Also, even if you interpret that post as me defending NCJ, why would I do that if I knew he was scum? I would know that, if he were lynched, he would be outed, and I would be looking suspicious if I defended him (however, this can be seen as WIFOM, and is not a good defense strategy).