Newbie 871 - Game Over Town Win

[starkmoon]

Herd has not picked up his/her prod.

Posting for replacement, cross yer fingers for me.

[boberz]

omg thew scumz are totaly boberz and ray. this is so ez
i met this girl named noah tonight lol get it? like tha ark hahahaha

At all serious? if so how come?

[Ether]

Boberz's last post on the Herd/Ksen stuff doesn't make his viewpoint any less foggy to me. It's a conspiracy theory. It's him being bitter about some dead wagons he liked. (Especially because, working off memory, there was a chronological order to those wagons. You're saying that if Ksen was scum, a scumbag who wasn't Herd came up with an

elaborate plan

to deflect town wagons just so it could have an excuse to someday clear Ksen. No.) Have you actually looked back at why those wagons failed and tried to glean something, or are you just trying to justify yourself?

(Also off of memory,

I

broke the Herdwagon--by voting and drawing attention to Ksen. Then Incognito prompted Patrick and me to break the Ksenwagon. We're all town, of course.)

Can you honestly tell me that no-one has ever questioned you for using definitave statements about someone being town. Especially when based on a players say so?

Yes, I've been attacked before by scumbags and ignorant newbies who don't appreciate me clearing the (town) players they want to be suspicious of. What does that have to do with my request for an example? You said you had them. Why haven't you actually answered my request--or, for that matter, reacted to my defense, commented on RayFrost or provided a List like I asked?

[Patrick]

For me, the players here fit into three categories.

People I'm somewhat suspicious of are herd and RayFrost. Herd I don't really have a case against other than what I've said about his posts already. He lurked and didn't add much to the game, and some of his posts felt pretty scummy. Ray seems like he's been more interested in making excuses than catching up and adding some content to the game, and his one comment so far is pretty much the opposite of how I felt about boberz's case against Incognito. Ray, do you think stretching is scummy on page 1? Misinterpretation? I'm not convinced there was any deliberate misrep there. I could conceivably see them both being scum, and looking back, herd's only commentary on Darth seems a bit weird:

Randal seems to have essentially repeated what everyone else had already said in his last post, which obviously isn't helpful. I guess it could be seen as scummy not to post original stuff but just to summarize and make it look like you're adding to the discussion, but I don't know. I'm not sure, but is it usually a tell if someone puts a "pressure vote" on an inactive player? It seems as though it might be a bit protown, but I don't know.

If he comes back, which seems unlikely, I'd like him to explain the thought in the last sentence.

Ksen, Annachie and Tyrope and all kind of middling, and quite hard to get a handle on. Ksen has a few moments where he sounds genuine and pretty misguided, but still seems lacking in curiosity as well, and not in the same waffly way that I've seen from some newbie town. If I'm dead overnight and he's around later, don't write him off just based on one or two tells. Annachie I keep going back and forth on. I think many of his suspicions are way off and he seems overely obsessed with the three experienced players, but looking at some of his questioning there is a certain level of consistency to it and nothing obvious to make me think he's insincere. One thing I don't like:

Can you honestly tell me that no-one has ever questioned you for using definitave statements about someone being town. Especially when based on a players say so?

Just a gut feeling about this. Why does it matter?

Tyrope is still pretty much neutral to me, though I'd like to see his thoughts on recent events too. If I had to venture a guess I'd put ksen above Annachie and Tryrope in suspicion, though unless something changes I don't think any of these guys would be a good lynch today.

Ether, Incognito and boberz still all seem town. I'm more confident in the two I have meta on. boberz's theory seems like a lot of words without much conclusion. It would probably help if he named some names instead of just saying that scum could have tried to turn off the pressure on herd and ksen. For example, if herd is scum, who's a candidate for scum trying this subtle strategy? What if ksen is scum? I'd probably look at boberz again if Ray is lynched as scum, but I still think he's done several things that newbie-scum wouldn't do (like the initial attack on Incog to start with). Overall I'd be surprised if he's scum.

Vote stands for now. Could change depending on what I see from RayFrost.

[boberz]

When I first made the statement I made it clear I had not read back and that I planned to.

I have read back (before the long post after incog asked me to clarify) and I disagree on your chronology and understanding. Firstly I put the ksen wagon at L-2 within a few posts you removed your vote to Darth, after that Patrick put L-2 on herd, all on the same page (6). So you broke the ksen wagon by voting darth. You have not at any point voted herd. I do know what happened in that period, I have lost a bit of grasp since but I understand my own point.

Perhaps I am blinded by missing a wagon I thought was good, but I am notconvinced. Since reading back I have stated the logic is not very usefull to us now, when before I thought it would be. I said this in my recent long post.

The plan is not elaborate, clever but not elaborate. It involves taking pressure off your scum partner, to cover it take pressure off another player aswell. It is not a complex play.

I have looked at why the wagons failed and thought I had spoken of them to some extent but am not happy that people are not understanding me. I cant wait for endgame to see if my communication is poor, my logic poor or you scum, or a mixture.

But of course I am defending myself, I have been attacked on the same piece of logic about four or even five times but only by two players. I refuse to go through this again, if you really think I am wrong explain why rather than question my motives.

I am fed up of this argument and unless I feel you actually move the debate forward rather than just say the same things I will just ignore posts on this subject.

[Patrick]

The plan is not elaborate, clever but not elaborate. It involves taking pressure off your scum partner, to cover it take pressure off another player aswell. It is not a complex play.

Is this something you've experienced before in FTF? Personally I don't think I can recall an example of scum thinking like this.

Caveat: Whilst I definately consider this (this game sounds ever more like an eco essay now) a scumside factor it could still be town who do it, because they would not want to incriminate themselves by removing pressure from one person, and remove it from both. I think this is a bad idea for town but could see why they would do it.

Town is more likely to just take pressure of anyone who they don't think it's warranted on or who they become less suspicious of. It's not inherently scummy to take pressure off one or more people.

Are ksen and herd your top two suspects?

[boberz]

Yeah I have seen it before, I am suprised it does not occur in forum games, it seems easier to do it forum games to me.

No, ksen is my top suspect. Now Annachie is second. Herd is third i suppose, but not on the same level as the other two. Both replacements are neutral to me really I cant work it out, I suppose i didnt like darth incredibly so maybe ray a tiny bit scum not much.

More town but not pout of my sight yet. You ether and incog. I had ether down as town completely, but i sense she refused to even try andunderstand me there, so she has dropped to your level, but that is still a town read ish.

[Ether]

I am fed up of this argument

Why? You're the one who took ages to post it.

and unless I feel you actually move the debate forward rather than just say the same things I will just ignore posts on this subject.

Where did I repeat myself?

I understand you just fine. I think you're clinging to a bad pet theory and wasting a lot of time trying to justify it instead of asking yourself whether it really deserves that justification (or even checking who it actually incriminates), but I'm fully aware of what you're

trying

to get at.

Incidentally, Annachie's logged on and seen my post to him, and is still not talking to me head-on. Don't you hate it when people can't take responsibility for their votes?

[boberz]

I felt throughout this process you and incog had not added anything just continuously asked myself to explain, this was the repitition. I am fed up because i have explained it at least four times now.

Interesting on annachie.

[Tyrope]

Tyrope is still pretty much neutral to me, though I'd like to see his thoughts on recent events too.

Honestly my only thoughts was "wow this is confusing when you bump in after alot of days, i wish i had patience enough to wait for a new game to start"
tbh, I think that's the best decision for me to make, I can't really read you guys simply because I have too many information to filter from... I'd like your opinions about this. I'd love to try and learn as we go along, but I feel I'll be either holding the game back or end up doing something that'll cause destruction for the town, which I do not want.

[Ether]

Boberz, that's not how I see it. Myself, I think you're the one dragging it out. I think this is all a waste of time, but you seem interested in it.

If you think it's useful and won't listen to reason, then you should really just stop arguing about its theory and see who it incriminates already. (Like I said, that'll probably be Incognito and me.)

Tyrope, you've already read the game--the stuff you're lurking over is stuff that's currently happening. So...I'm not really sure how you'd fare better in a game you didn't replace into. The only way to get a proper grip in a game is to stop lurking-you'll just pick up a backlog that way--and start questioning people and discussing your suspicions. Coincidentally, that's also the only reliable way for us to read

you

.

[boberz]

Ether did you read any of what I have posted. I have accepted on at least two occasions that it does not provide me with any info untill i see what ksen and/or herd are. So I cannot read that unless you want me to do seven hypo situations (I do not have time to play seven games of day x mafia that arent even going on yet). I then on both occasions realised that this made my original statement rather useless and as such I should have kept this to myself. I understood this was different to my first post and corrected myself and apologised for it. I am interested in it, but not for the reasons you seem to think I am.

Annachie obviously had nothing to comment on to you ether, nor on my criticism of him, nor anything else going on.

[ksen]

Well, in about 2 hours it'll be 48 hours since Ray posted last, unless I missed a post.

Ray . . . do you have anything to add to the game?

@boberz - Dude, you've tunnelvisioned onto me ever since our talk about no-lynch on the first couple of pages. Isn't it about time grab onto something else?

What's your read on RayFrost/Darth?

[boberz]

I dont feel I have tunnelvisioned you. In fact during no lynch I on more than one occasion called you town. It was only on about page 4/5 i thought scum. I provided new evidence only on the last page or two to support why my vote is staying where it is. Tunnel vision is more than just keeping your vote on one person and justifying it.

I have also been talking about other people the whole time as well, cite my recent attack on annachie.

My read on Ray frost and Darth is minimal. I have already commented on this btw most recently a couple of posts ago. darth was a little bit scummy to me but there were about 5 people who were a little like that. Ray Frost is taking a long time to catch up considering he voluntarily came into this game, this is obviously amplified since whenever i last said it. I read his only real content full post accusing me as slightly town, but a few people asked me to reconsider so now i am not sure. I thought as I was writing it I was stretching things, but i think it made me town.

[Patrick]

What made you see his post accusing you as slightly town? It seemed pretty counter-intuitive to me.

[Incognito]

At all serious? if so how come?

I may have been wasted but yeah, I think I do agree with what I said there. I think if RayFrost/Darth flips scum, I could see you as a possible buddy to him.

-~-~

Not sure if we'll be getting some kind of a deadline extension or anything but here are my current reads now that Day 1 is drawing to a close:

Patrick

- I was going up and down with him initially, but at the moment I think he's very likely town.

Ether

- Town.

ksen

- His hypothesis about the mod making one of the ICs scum seems really town-ish to me. Also, I just can't see any probable buddy for him especially given his #293 - since I think Ether and Patrick are town, and ksen has pretty openly mentioned that he would be willing to lynch any of {Ray, Herd, Annachie}, and I know I'm town, then the only person who's missing is boberz, and boberz has been pretty adamant about a ksen-lynch making a partnership between them unlikely. Oh and I guess Tyrope's a possibility too but ksen seemed more than willing to lynch "him" earlier too for not being around. So yeah.

boberz

- Individually seems town. I think he needs a good look-through though if Ray flips scum.

Annachie

- Neutral leaning town. I'm getting the feeling that even though I disagree with a lot of what he says, he's probably coming into the thread with a genuine thought process.

RayFrost

- Almost certainly scum. The delay to produce reads is ridiculous.

herd

- Individually he reads scummy to me. I could see him as a possible Ray-buddy also.

Tyrope

- Neutral leaning town. He needs to post more content, but I thought his entrance was decent -- I think a him-scum would have been more likely to enter the game with a solid suspect rather than claiming to be "too trusting" of people. There's some mod WIFOM involved in this read too that I don't put too much stock in, but I guess I could share that with you all too: I kind of think that if the Yarmond player slot was scum, the mod wouldn't have been as likely to forget about replacing him. Maybe that's just the way a me-mod works though.

[boberz]

Incog, that mod wifom i would put more stock in than you are. The reason i often dont believe wifom is ecause mafia could do either as a double bluff or a triple bluff etc... meaning a read is impossible. But there is no incentive for the mod to forget so I think you are right an oversight, which is less likely to occur with mafia than town.

I just think he wouldnt have taken an unpopular view as scum, and certainly his point about stretching was true I was, he had only posted once. But as I said I have reconsidered it because you and a few others indicated otherwise, that post is neutral to me now i suppose.

[Annachie]

Ether, I never said that I'd seen it, but that I had learned it.
Basic Freudian psychology.

I'm curious to the reaction that I'm paranoid though. Especially given that when similar sentiments were raised by someone else, paranopid was a word thrown around then too.

Incidentally, Annachie's logged on and seen my post to him, and is still not talking to me head-on. Don't you hate it when people can't take responsibility for their votes?

Some of that is me refreshing and getting dragged away by the kids while reading, and some is Firefox automatically logging me in when the program/computer get restarted, (I tend not to close certain tabs like this, Harry Potter fanfiction, and Facebook) and one occasion was me taking 12 hours to write a post and refreshing a seperate tab to keep up wih what others were posting.

Case in pont, this has taken me about 2.5 hours

There's some mod WIFOM involved in this ...

Patrick, since I notice that you are currently modding a game, what's your opinion on this?

4.5 days until the deadline by my count.

Since I doubt that Ether will be strung up ( ) what should I be thinking?

[Ether]

what should I be thinking?

Why don't you tell me?

That's a serious question: why

haven't

you told us?

[Ether]

Boberz: I dimly remember you mentioning that your point would be moot if both Herd and Ksen came up town, but not you wanting to wait to see whether they actually would or not. Fair enough--I won't push this matter, but I do think that when the time comes, you should stick to analyzing their wagons individually.

I like Boberz's reaction to Incognito's observation on Tyrope, as well as the observation itself. I support lynching Herd's replacement and Annachie when RayFrost comes up scum. Probably in that order.

Annachie: Freud was dumb. I'm not trying to be offensive here, but don't try appealing to your experience until you actually have some.

The three of us who've have the most experience at reading people--

especially

each other--are all vouching for each other, and despite token "I'm definitely not certain only scum are certain!" disclaimers, you're acting pretty much unwilling to consider that our accuracy might possibly be better than 42%. (Which isn't even especially an especially

low

gambler's fallacy.) I do not see how that could possibly not count as paranoia.

Posts like that shouldn't take you two and a half hours. You didn't even do anything in it.

Why haven't you actually answered my request--or, for that matter, reacted to my defense, commented on RayFrost or provided a List like I asked?

I'm really sick of repeating myself for you.

[Incognito]

I agree with Ether that boberz's reaction to that was solid. I didn't expect that kind of reaction at all, actually.

Since I doubt that Ether will be strung up ( ) what should I be thinking?

I personally think you should offer your opinion about the other viable wagons and then you should choose one to join.

-~-~-~

One thing that I'd like to point out is this:

2) At the three week deadline lynching will require the same number as votes as usual, if this number is not reached the day will end 'no lynch'.

It is very important that we secure a lynch today in order for us to gain more information about each other for future Days. A 'no lynch' is simply not an option since it would greatly reduce our chances at winning the game. Please keep this in mind.

[Incognito]

Oh and Frosty: I'd like a claim from you, please. Thanks.

[RayFrost]

Oh and Frosty: I'd like a claim from you, please. Thanks.

How about I provide an actual read and I don't have to claim? Deal?

[Incognito]

Why is it taking you so long to provide these reads?

[RayFrost]

1. laziness

2. lack of energy

3. not feeling like it

4. interruptions (*ahem*)

5. haven't been doing it