Newbie 853 (Endgame, Mafia win!!)

[Concerned]

Now that Agar has voted for me I'm not really comfortable voting for anyone else.

Vote: Agar

As cruelty said we can be fairly sure either me or Agar is scum, his willingness to vote off DTM concerned me, he could just be willing to vote off his scum buddy to make himself look innocent, but there is another possibility, where Zorblag and Agar are the scum and voting off DTM would be an easy win.
Zorblag has already said he finds DTM most suspicious and now that I said I might be willing to vote off DTM, Agar is suddenly willing to do the same.

Voting DTM off might be a big mistake for us.

[cruelty]

DTM where are you?

[AGar]

Good question. We're now just a little over 24 hours away from the deadline, and I'm starting to wonder if he's ever coming back. I have a bad feeling about this...

[AGar]

Err correction, we're about 41 hours away. Missed the time of the deadline. Still, not a lot of time.

[Sironigous]

As we are less than 26 hours from deadline, there is no way I can reasonably replace DTMaster and expect a replacement to fill his obligation. There will NOT be another extension.

Prod to DTMaster sent.

Deadline: December 8, 2009 ~ 7 PM EST (12 midnight GMT)

Vote Count:

AGar (1) - Concerned
cruelty
Concerned (1) - AGar
DTMaster
Zorblag

Not Voting: cruelty, DTMaster, Zorblag

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch!

[cruelty]

If DTM is town, if he doesn't vote we're fucked. Unless we can reach a quick consensus on someone else. I could probably get behind an AGar or a Concerned lynch, Zorblag... probably not today.

[DTMaster]

This game has become the lowest of priorities right now :< sorry.

Anyways. Both Agar and Concerned cannot be scum together, and since there hasn't been a quick hammer, there is only one scum to deal with from Agar and Concerned.

Why?:

A DTM case is much stronger for scum to pursue. A bussing attempt at this stage in the game makes no sense to do so, especially since I've been severely inactive all game.

If both players were townie, scum would have control of the hammer, There is no hammer, there fore both players cannot be town.

Sorry for wasting most of the extension: Anyways through the above logic I feel that scum exists on one of the wagons. But Cruelty's outburst reads as extremely townie to me. Why? He is correct that town requires my vote to win. I think we are dealing with a Troll/ Agar or Concerned team here based on the late game reactions.

Agar is the person whom I'm leaning town towards, Concerned is leaning scummy. I'll be around today if this doesn't budge Concerned is second on my list.

Cruel/Agar/Scorpion if you are town: the common scum link is Zorblag. He should be lynched.

Vote: Zorblag

My reread analysis and responses to questions will come shortly.

[Concerned]

DTM if you are town you are barking up the wrong tree with your appeal to Agar. I'm the other townie.
However I'm hardly willing to vote for Zorblag when Agar could easy come in behind me and hammer if you are his scum partner.
We'll see what Cruelty thinks about this but we are running out of time.

[DTMaster]

Concerned: Your AtE is less flattering considering you did:

As cruelty said we can be fairly sure either me or Agar is scum, his willingness to vote off DTM concerned me, he could just be willing to vote off his scum buddy to make himself look innocent, but there is another possibility, where Zorblag and Agar are the scum and voting off DTM would be an easy win.
Zorblag has already said he finds DTM most suspicious and now that I said I might be willing to vote off DTM, Agar is suddenly willing to do the same.

Voting DTM off might be a big mistake for us.

As part of your case against Agar.

[AGar]

DT, you've put us in an awful position, holding out to the last hour. I think I can safely say we all want to see what Cruelty/Zorblag have to say before anything, and now were down to some 16 hours before the deadline.

I can see the connection you make with Troll, but I still don't really know that I'm 100% sure on it, I'd say I'm about 40% convinced. Not enough to change my vote right now.

[Concerned]

Concerned: Your AtE is less flattering considering you did:

As cruelty said we can be fairly sure either me or Agar is scum, his willingness to vote off DTM concerned me, he could just be willing to vote off his scum buddy to make himself look innocent, but there is another possibility, where Zorblag and Agar are the scum and voting off DTM would be an easy win.
Zorblag has already said he finds DTM most suspicious and now that I said I might be willing to vote off DTM, Agar is suddenly willing to do the same.

Voting DTM off might be a big mistake for us.

As part of your case against Agar.

Do you mind if I ask what AtE is?

All I was trying to point out in the above comment was that: Either me or Agar are likely scum, considering we have now voted.

Therefore I know that Agar is likely scum and at the very least the village knows one of us is probably scum, I would rather we vote for someone who is almost definitely scum than take a stab at someone else. Especially since from my perspective it's probably either you or Zorblag who are the last scum.

[Concerned]

EBWOP:
Since we are so near deadline I think it's fair to ask that everyone keep fairly active today? It would be nice if people stayed on hand for discussion.

[cruelty]

AtE is appeal to emotion.

This is such a bad situation.

I know that one of AGar and concerned is scum.

I therefore know that one of Zorblag and DTM is scum. I see that Zorblag has been on the site since his last post, so I can't really think of a compelling reason that he'd be avoiding the game as town.

I don't know what to think about DTM, his lack of contribution lately has been disastrous, my vote is basically just a coin flip at this point - I don't have the information I wanted and I don't have the time to get it. I think that should town lose, then if DTM is town the loss is squarely on his shoulders (and brothernature's, tbh).

So therefore I don't think I can vote for one of them, it has to be one of Concerned or AGar. If I get it right then hopefully we can get some info tomorrow (but that's running the risk of an inactive DTM dragging town down again).

I'm going to bed now, I'll vote in about 9 hours time.

[Concerned]

It wasn't an appeal to emotion I was simply sharing my thoughts, if you look at it from my perspective for a moment you will see that it's hardly an unreasonable analysis.

Anyway it's out of my hands at this point.

[Zorblag]

Well now, that's an interesting development. I haven't been hammered and everyone's been posting so I can be certain enough that DTMaster is scum and has to be partnered with either AGar or Concerned. I'm not sure which of the other two DTMaster is is protecting with his post and there's a fair amount of WIFOM involved but my guess is that it's AGar both on what DTMaster said there and how the day has gone (I think that AGar was more liklely to have been the lynch though it's not completely cut and dry.)

Of the reactions to DTMaster's vote I like Concerned's much better. Both Concerned and AGar would know at the point that DTMAster cast his vote that if they were town the other should be scum. If you're sure about scum in LyLo it's much better to vote for them as you can't make any mistakes and any other options will be at least as clear in the future. Further, for AGar to go from an apparent null read on DTMaster and a fairly town read with some doubts on me to being 40% convinced (almost as sure that it's true as that it's false) by DTMaster's case which relies on him being town a page later is way too convenient. It looks much more like opportunistic scum trying to position them self for a second option for a mislynch than anything concerned has given in terms of reactions.

At this point then my guess for the scum team is AGar and DTMaster based on their actions individually and together. DTMater is my first choice for a lynch as I'm sure about him now but I recognize that knowledge is relies on my knowing that I'm town. If the DTMaster lynch wasn't going to happen then I'd much prefer an AGar lynch to a Concerned lynch. Right now there's really no way cruelty could be scum so I am not willing to vote for him. If DTMaster hadn't outed himself to me like this then I would have cast my vote for AGar all other things being equal.

I should have been posting more here but I've been pretty limited in terms of access to the forums at all for most of this game day. Once the votes were cast by AGar and Concerned I could have confirmed that it almost certainly meant that at least one of them was scum (though until now I would have been less quick to rule out the cross bus than the rest of you as it would have been a great way to make the other look good enough to get a mislynch the next day and scum only has to get one mislynch in the next two days. At this point it's irrelevant as that's clearly not what has happened.) As it was there was no huge change in the overall dynamic; the votes went as they would predictably have gone and I was waiting to see what DTMaster would bring to the game and if he would address the issues people had been bringing up.

Vote: DTMaster

I will be able to get on again before the deadline so I will be able to change that to make sure a lynch has happened if needed.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[cruelty]

vote: AGar

I honestly don't know, working without enough information. Sorry if I missed scum, town.

[Concerned]

vote: AGar

I honestly don't know, working without enough information. Sorry if I missed scum, town.

Fear not, you haven't missed scum.

The scum hammer claiming victory is not going to come.
At this point we just have to rely on the last towny to vote before the deadline.

The only way we can mess up now is if the last townie fails to hammer before the deadline. By all means take your time (whoever you may be) but not

too

much time.

[DTMaster]

Vote: Agar

Since cruel decided. If Agar flips scum then tomorrow its a troll lynch since we have two confirmed townies: Concerned and Cruel.

Cruel is confirmed through his end day posting.
Concerned is confirmed if Agar flips scum.

[Concerned]

Vote: Agar

Since cruel decided. If Agar flips scum then tomorrow its a troll lynch since we have two confirmed townies: Concerned and Cruel.

Cruel is confirmed through his end day posting.
Concerned is confirmed if Agar flips scum.

Nice try but you're just as likely to be scum. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

[DTMaster]

Judging by that reaction, this was a success. The debate begins tomorrow.

[Sironigous]

Vote Count:

AGar (3) - Concerned, cruelty, DTMaster
cruelty
Concerned (1) - AGar
DTMaster (1) - Zorblag
Zorblag

Not Voting:

Shouting is heard in the distance - "AGar, AGar, AGAR!!!!"

What?

Right.

AGar - Mafia Roleblocker - has been lynched.

Night 3 begins now. All players with a night action can send it to me within 5 days of this post.

[Sironigous]

Morning. Again.

This is the last morning. Watch out.

Concerned - Vanilla townie - has been night killed

Day 4

cruelty
DTMaster
Zorblag

Not voting: cruelty, DTMaster, Zorblag

With, 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch!

Deadline - Janaury 9, 2010 ~ 7 EST (Midnight GMT)

[DTMaster]

Note: Due to exams: which is partly why I've been away for so long I'll be done on Wednesday. I want to finish this game till the end. V/LAed untill then.

Also since we are basically at this point and we already narrowed this down to a Troll/DTM debate

Vote : Zorblag

[cruelty]

Curious.

I'll take submissions from both of you, and then make my decision.

[Zorblag]

Vote: DTMaster

I should be able to have time over the next couple days to put together the case that DTMaster is scum. I proctor my last final tomorrow and then have some more meetings to end the term but I should have more freetime than I did throughout the last game day.

cruelty, if you've got any questions you're welcome to ask them.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh