Mini 880 - Mini Quick and Dirty - Game Over

[Albert B. Rampage]

Yep.

Vote Papa Zito

1) Defending himself with the mountainous argument with the knowledge of items in the game doesn't exactly make sense.

2) What VP Baltar said. The setup will do the work of the scum for us.

3) Tracker claim isn't so suspicious on second thought. If charlatan did lie though, he's next.

[crypto]

Either way we get a scum out of the deal.

This Go-Go Gadget Quick Lynch haste/confidence is absolutely wrecking me.

[VP Baltar]

Put a hole in the logic I presented and I'll not be adamant about it. Until then, I'll continue to think it's the best course of action (and justification for my early scum read on him).

Also, it's not really a quick lynch. I'm not even voting yet.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I'm voting. I think it's a good lynch. Everyone's claimed, what needed to be said has been said. Could be scum gambitting, we'll never know if we don't lynch.

Say Papa Zito is scum, and there are power roles in this setup. A 3 man team would definitely be balanced, so we mislynch and the game's over. Between a choice of charlatan and Zito, we have no choice but to lynch charlatan.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Oh, I mean Zito. I was thinking of the mountainous setup.

[charlatan]

Baltar, it's more that PZ didn't put in effort AND didn't make the right arguments. His posts are like two-line "Setup and my role PM say you're scum" jobs as opposed to, heck, just a paragraph-long

case

.

Whatever. Apparently 9:37 PM is when my writing stops being remotely lucid.

This. Maybe I didn't communicate well, judging by VP's synopsis of the point I was trying to make. If I'm a townie and I know the guy accusing me is scum, and I know his justification for why he has acted the way he has is a lie, I'm probably going to try and find holes where I can instead of 'I had a bulletproof vest, you're scum'. That would not be a very important to me even as a non-PR, though. It should be much more significant that speculation-based defense doesn't even really make much sense.

[crypto]

ABR, what happened to the Scien case?

[charlatan]

ABR, what happened to the Scien case?

Also, revisiting what I was saying about relationships and reactions before, recall that Ramp's initial reaction to my claim was immediately that it wasn't to be trusted. Then he disappeared for a bit and came back, having changed his mind and ready to vote (now that it's more likely it's going to happen than it was immediately after the claim.)

[Zorblag]

Papa Zito either be town and telling the truth about the bullet-proof vest as an item (and Troll would be willing to believe that a mini normal with items be plausible) or him be scum and giving a different way that power roles were handled in the initial setup to make it seem like standard power roles less likely to occur in this game. Actually there be other options as well but those be the two most likely. In any case, there do be a reason for him to make the claim the way him has as scum; Troll thinks it be a bit easier to argue for mountainous now (or at least against standard roles) if someone had an item in the original setup and no one of those that be alive now who got the PMs for the first game had roles there.

@Papa Zito, how did the bullet-proof vest work in the previous incarnation of the game? Also you no delivered your thoughts on your prior scum lists or how confident you be about Crypto's alignment. Troll still be interested in those.

@Albert B. Rampage, Troll also be interested in hearing what your case on Scien was going to be.

@Scien, said you had leads to share as well. Have you shared them?

@Ojanen, if you be skimming the game now could you please share the role and any abilities that you had in the aborted game?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Ojanen]

Troll, I was vanilla in the aborted game too.

Reading now, will trade some sleep for finally posting.

[VP Baltar]

You're a trooper Oj.

[Ojanen]

Thanks, I hate the way my current schedule+access is making me deal with my mafia games.

Papa Zito, part of your thought process about this game being mountaineous was that the limited reveal is a designed feature in order to cover this up. With the aborted version also having limited reveal and you claiming an item there how you did come to this as first on the list of assumptions?

As a sidenote, upon checking the late parts of isos, I'm thinking Sando and AGar were reasonably likely vanilla. Neither claimed from what I could see, both were predictably deadline lynched, and had these mindsets on the day of the deadline:

I'm fairly bemused by my seemingly inevitable lynch, but no, I'm not a happy chappy about what seems like a fairly inevitable lynch.

I'm probably going to be lynched tomorrow, I guess that's not going to change. That's fine. I haven't played the best game, and it's a pretty fair reasoning to lynch me.

Those+no claim are rather vanillaish mindsets to me.
That would (pretty likely) leave Serial and ODDin as possible powerroles besides charlatan.
9-3 mountaineous is not balanced.
2 scum, 9 vanilla, tracker fakeclaim from someone higher than average on people's townradars to potentially trade 1-1, and get partner to endgame after that? Seems not likely, unnecessary risk and casting away of some advantage (charlatan's apparent towncred). Also, not mylo today then.
Seems likely that if charlatan is lying there must have been power among Serial and ODDin (hmm, pretty lame though, I guess they could overlap to an extent as prs, it's only conditional in one direction).

Let me iso some more for non-setup scumhunting.

[Ojanen]

Aaarghdozedoff. Braindead. I don't think I have particularly fresh perspective to offer.

Neither PZ or charlatan have particularly been on my radar, I've had light town on charlatan, I deemed ODDin's PZ case crap and thus in effect defended PZ.
Surprisingly similar voting patterns, on both lynch wagons, PZ was late reluctant hammerer of Sando's while charlatan was AGar's.
PZ's style is very hard to read.
AGar vote stance shift is stinky though.
If PZ is scum his lynch won't lose him the game. If town, presumably will. His failure to try to persuade others seems somewhat more likely to come from scum.

I find charlatan's actions on D3 fairly consistent to the tracker claim. More open, readable feel, although his posts are a little light on stances early D2. PZ target choice is slightly questionable.

Feel of slots+setup=leaning PZ scum atm.

I checked Serial and ODDin out a little for the heck of it, nothing tangible.

(They would have had both a connection as nightkills to PZ, but wifom [PZ would also be good fakeclaim target based on that].)

Access situation update:

I am flying tomorrow to Mongolia until December 28th. I have been told I have internet access in the hotels. I should be able to have enough free time to be able to keep up in the nights. Since traveling and my workload can be unpredictable as I've noticed, I'll post this as a notice. If nothing is heard from me until Sunday it means Ulan Bator has let me down and replacement is at mod's discretion. Access really should work out though.

---
[lonely spam]
Holy crap!
I that must have been a mild earthquake right now with the house shaking very tangibly!
[/lonely spam]

[Scien]

@Scien, said you had leads to share as well. Have you shared them?

Eh, no not really. It would have/will be continuing my discussion with VP from yesterday. He had a rebutted close to day end, and day ended before I brought up counterpoints. I did say that this was what I was talking about already today.

Right now though I am just struggling between Charlatan, and PapaZ. As well as fighting something else.

Could someone enlighten me on something though? Why all the speculation on setup? Does it actually help scum hunt? If we don't know if there are power roles dead, we can't know that there are no power roles. Everything is speculation. How can such baseless speculation help scum hunt.

Could someone please inform me? I am being honest here. I don't see the benefit of everyone bringing up setup... am I missing something?

[Albert B. Rampage]

I never said I had a case. His interactions with AGar were simply off to me, making it look like scum plotting. I don't really have anything more specific than that. And now that PZ has been declared to be at ODDin's last night, I think that's the vote for today.

[VP Baltar]

Could someone enlighten me on something though? Why all the speculation on setup? Does it actually help scum hunt? If we don't know if there are power roles dead, we can't know that there are no power roles. Everything is speculation. How can such baseless speculation help scum hunt.

Yes it does. I'll explain for you.

charlatan has claimed to have tracked scum PZ.

PZ says this is impossible because he is vanilla and this is a mountainous setup.

Now, the standard for a mountainous setup is to have 2 scum for every 10 players. That means if PZ is telling the truth about being vanilla and we are likely in a mountainous setup, there are only 2 scum anyway and we are not in a mylo situation. If this is the case, we'll have guaranteed scum charlatan tomorrow and still be sitting pretty good.

If charlatan is telling the truth, well PZ is scum and we save our mislynch for later since there is likely 3 scum here.

Either way you look at it, PZ is the lynch.

@ABR-If PZ flips scum, who do you think his buddies are?

[BigBear]

Vote Count

Papa Zito - (2) - Charlatan, Albert B. Rampage
Charlatan - (1) - Papa Zito

Not Voting

Ojanen, Crypto, Scien, VP Baltar, Zorblag

Deadline is in ~6 days, December 23rd at 11:59 PM EST

[Albert B. Rampage]

@ABR-If PZ flips scum, who do you think his buddies are?

Will depend on the NK. I can't make any serious accusations yet.

[VP Baltar]

Let's get this show on the road.

Vote: Papa Zito (L-2)

[Papa Zito]

Hey I'm here. Burned out but let me get some crap together.

[Papa Zito]

God, I really don't care at this point, but stupid site rules.

Let's start at the beginning.

I maintain that charlatown would have no reason to track me over other players, or even be a Tracker at all. My reasoning is as follows.

1. Charlatan's previous read on me was town.

I've given a list of posts related to me in 748. Those posts point to a charlatan town read on me. I say this because charlatan agrees with my PoV on several issues that people are attacking me over, and even goes so far as to defend me in a couple cases. In addition, he had to create a case today, meaning he didn't have one before. It makes no sense from a town perspective to track another town player.

2. Charlatan claimed a second suspect towards the end of Day 2.

1) ODDin.
2) Amished/Albert B. Rampage.

Given the town's poor lynching record, it makes far more sense for charlatown to target a scum suspect in order to get a good lynch the next day. The town wasn't in a position where we could afford experimental tracks to find that last remaining elusive scum player.

3. A track doesn't prove alignment in almost all cases.

Charlatan claims, despite posts contradicting this stance in-thread, that my read was "murky".

I thought I could solidify my murky read on you with a track.

The problem is that all kinds of things have to fall into place for a track to prove alignment. I would have to be scum

and

be the scum player to do the kill

and

not have the target be visited by a townie PR in order for this to work. In reality this is a crappy justification manufactured to fit the circumstances.

However, let's pretend for a moment that charlatan's just a major optimist and thinks that miracles happen. So why not...

I find this pretty interesting, because I'm having a hard time getting a handle on Scien this game, too, and I find this comment surprising.

...track Scien, who charlatan actually claims to have a "murky" read on? (sidenote: Why was it so hard to get a handle on Scien this game when charlatan already had a track on Scien, and charlatan was using tracks to figure out alignments?)

4. A townie PR with a guilty wouldn't allow massclaim to happen.

Charlatan was for a massclaim:

I agree with [massclaim], and I also think that it should probably be done soon, unless someone has serious and well reasoned objections.

Charlatan himself as a townie PR with a guilty would have well reasoned objections to massclaim: He would want to protect any other potential PRs from claiming and becoming targets. The correct play for our claimed Tracker would be to wagon me into oblivion and claim his info if necessary.

---

Now, to respond to his case.

Firstly, even had I not gotten a track result on him, I would have held him accountable for his AGar vote, and I'm frankly surprised it's not problematic to anyone else.

My AGar vote came after I reread the game, then reread people in isolation. I stated both in thread.

Yes, AGar was hollow. His scum self is highly guarded and defensive, his town self is far more carefree and offensive. In this game he was acting carefree-ish but I didn't see him push at anyone, just respond to posts. I felt like he was attempting to fabricate his townie meta, which he knew I was aware of. Maybe he was just burned out too.

His Sando hammer is particularly convenient; he has mentioned him in the margins of his play throughout the day in passing, and included him in a scum list along with ODDin and Troll, but despite his apparently high level of suspicion does not actually say a single word to Sando or respond to anything Sando has to say even once during the day.

1. There was nothing "convenient" about the hammer. It was done at deadline. I suppose your AGar hammer was convenient as well?
2. There were others pressuring him. They didn't need my help. You're arguing it's bad for the town to expand its scope?

I would argue that Zito was, in a sense, attached to the hip to SC at this point, and the nature of their interaction would require that he be involved with SC in upcoming days as well.

I had a town read on SC. Go back and look. And ODDin was the only one pursuing the BS point about the wagon, and I was ignoring him. Go back and look at that too. I wasn't "attached" at all.

In my experience, it is not uncommon for scum to want to whack someone in a position like that, as it frees them up to pursue other avenues of attack.

I was already attacking someone else. This is just false.

I thought his Scien interaction the next day was a little shakey, way too ready to support WIFOM in a manner that deflects suspicion:

People love to throw WIFOM around.

I made an off-comment about the NK. It was my interpretatin of what the NK was supposed to mean. For some reason talking about NKs is absolutely taboo on this site and I don't understand why. Until I do I reject the concept as stupid.

What's more important here are the living players. His interaction with Troll is something everyone should be looking at, especially as it feels a bit like spinning his wheels. Troll is something of a town leader, and Zito's accusations against him can be mostly boiled down to "you're fence-sitting."

Yes, everyone should be paying attention to Troll. He's not a town leader, he's sitting back and watching events just happen. If he's not scum he's 3rd party.


Basically, I want everyone to reread this case and look at the amount of speculation is in here, especially the "more important" part about living players which only mentions Troll and is a bunch of guessing about our alignments.

There's questions out there, hang on.

[Papa Zito]

crypto, ABR, Scien are prob town. crypto started bad but righted his ship.

VP is scum. Troll is the likely partner. I'm not sure about Ojanen.

@Papa Zito, how did the bullet-proof vest work in the previous incarnation of the game? Also you no delivered your thoughts on your prior scum lists or how confident you be about Crypto's alignment. Troll still be interested in those.

My current thoughts are up there. ^^^ Now that I have something concrete to work with I feel much better about them.

How did it work? I don't know, I didn't keep the PM. I'm not sure if it was one-shot or what.

With the aborted version also having limited reveal and you claiming an item there how you did come to this as first on the list of assumptions?

Was it? I never saw the original version of the game.

Holy crap!
I that must have been a mild earthquake right now with the house shaking very tangibly!

[VP Baltar]

crypto, ABR, Scien are prob town.

Thanks for the list of your buddies.

[charlatan]

I would like to spend a lot of time replying to every point in PZ's latest big post, but about 80% of the points made (i.e. he had a town read on me!!) have already been explained in my posts detailing why I tracked him and why I supported the massclaim.

Charlatan claims, despite posts contradicting this stance in-thread, that my read was "murky".

Oh? Where did I explicitly state that I had a strong town read on you? Agreeing with you on theory topics is not the same thing, by the way.

Then there's the bit about how proving alignment with a track is so inefficient and therefore I couldn't possibly have done it, and how I should have tracked Scien since I didn't have a great read on him (I did), and some other things. I guess nobody's ever caught scum via track before?

Charlatan himself as a townie PR with a guilty would have well reasoned objections to massclaim: He would want to protect any other potential PRs from claiming and becoming targets. The correct play for our claimed Tracker would be to wagon me into oblivion and claim his info if necessary.

It's really like Zito isn't even reading my posts.

My AGar vote came after I reread the game, then reread people in isolation. I stated both in thread.

Right, and even if I didn't already know you were scum, I would ask you what about your re-read caused you to change your mind about him, because it's helpful when you have reasoning to back up opinions. Otherwise, we'd all throw votes around with justification like "I read him isolation and realized he was scum", which would make for hilarious but frustrating games.

Yes, AGar was hollow. His scum self is highly guarded and defensive, his town self is far more carefree and offensive. In this game he was acting carefree-ish but I didn't see him push at anyone, just respond to posts.

This would have been the point to post before, not a day later.

2. There were others pressuring him. They didn't need my help. You're arguing it's bad for the town to expand its scope?

Can't do two things at once? Really did not have a single suspicion re: Sando that had not been mentioned by anyone else? Positive about the alignment of the others pressuring him, that their interaction with him was also genuine and to your benefit? I know the answer to the last question given your alignment, but I would consider this a scumtell under all circumstances.

I had a town read on SC. Go back and look. And ODDin was the only one pursuing the BS point about the wagon, and I was ignoring him. Go back and look at that too. I wasn't "attached" at all.

Your read was irrelevant in that regard. The fact that you considered the NK to be about you and him sniping back and forth at the end of Day 1 suggests that you didn't even agree with yourself here.

Basically, I want everyone to reread this case and look at the amount of speculation is in here, especially the "more important" part about living players which only mentions Troll and is a bunch of guessing about our alignments.

What? The comments I've made about reactions to the claim and your interaction with people is not part of a case against you. As I stated in the thread, it stands to reason that I will not be here tomorrow either way, and I would like to get my thoughts out about your potential scumpartners. Places where I've speculated I've mostly identified as speculation, I think -- either way it shouldn't be confusing.

[Papa Zito]

Oh? Where did I explicitly state that I had a strong town read on you? Agreeing with you on theory topics is not the same thing, by the way.

You never explicitly said it. I never stated you did. Show me where I appear on a scumlist, or where you say your opinion of my alignment is "murky" before today.

No, what I said your town read on me was easily seen by your actions in-game. Take, for example, this.

1) ODDin. This stems primarily from his interaction with Zito, which feels vaguely contrived and overly reactionary.

You based your #1 suspect of the day on someone's continual attacks on me. To feel this way you must have had me as town being attacked by scum. This is not a "theory topic".

---

Then there's the bit about how proving alignment with a track is so inefficient and therefore I couldn't possibly have done it

No. I said to assume that a track would prove someone's alignment one way or another is sheer lunacy.

and how I should have tracked Scien since I didn't have a great read on him (I did)

Haha, can't keep your story straight now.

I find this pretty interesting, because I'm having a hard time getting a handle on Scien this game, too, and I find this comment surprising.

You made this comment D2.

---

It's really like Zito isn't even reading my posts.

I'm refuting them. Hooray for magical handwaving!

---

[1]Can't do two things at once? Really did not have a single suspicion re: Sando that had not been mentioned by anyone else? [2]Positive about the alignment of the others pressuring him, that their interaction with him was also genuine and to your benefit?

1. I had no reason to do two things at once.
2. Not at all positive about their alignments. That's one of the prime reasons I let do their thing and don't interfere... I get to a read both parties.

---

Your read was irrelevant in that regard. The fact that you considered the NK to be about you and him sniping back and forth at the end of Day 1 suggests that you didn't even agree with yourself here.

English. Do you speak it?

---

What? The comments I've made about reactions to the claim and your interaction with people is not part of a case against you.

Oh, that wasn't part of your case? lol okay then, your case was even smaller than I thought.