Mini 197- Points Mafia; Game over!


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Post Post #250 (ISO) » Sun Jul 17, 2005 3:47 pm

Post by armlx »

As dawn breaks, the town heads to see who to lynch today. All are there; all except SpeedyKQ and Nai.

The town finds SpeedyKQ dead in the park. He was wearing full body armor, but had no head left. A nearby shotgun with piercing bullets solves the mystery of what happened.
He was Town


You find Nai at his house. Or, more acurrately, parts of him. Minced up and stuffed into Ziploc Bags, the only way he could be identified was by his custom made Tommy gun found at his side.
He was mafia
.

Woth 6 left, it takes 4 to lynch. Let the games begin.
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Post Post #251 (ISO) » Sun Jul 17, 2005 3:54 pm

Post by Thesp »

Well, crud. Most likely we have 2 mafia and an SK left, if the typical numbers are present in this game. Mass claim time?
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Post Post #252 (ISO) » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:20 pm

Post by MeMe »

Why would an SK kill Nai? I think it
much
more likely that it was the work of a vigilante.

I also think the initial game post's use of "mafia" exclusively rather than "anti-town" and the fact that this is the first time we've had two kills overnight backs up the theory that there's no SK here -- but I think it's *quite* possible we've got three mafia left.

Maybe, instead of a mass claim, we can simply claim how many points we started with and how many we have left? Might be a good way to start this...

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Post Post #253 (ISO) » Sun Jul 17, 2005 5:48 pm

Post by Yggdrasil »

If we do have an SK, I find it somewhat odd that his/her kill did not show up until now. However, I would also hesitate to attribute Nai's death to a vigilante since that's a very risky kill for a vig to make; had Nai not been mafia, the mafia would have won (assuming three mafia). For once, I will say that the flavor of the kill also strongly indicates a serial killer.

As for the mass claim, I might wait to see whether we can figure out who the remaining mafia and SK are without a mass claim. If that fails, we can fall back on a mass claim to identify our scum. If we can lynch scum without telling the mafia who they need to kill, we will be in a much better position tomorrow.

I'll post on who I think is supicious later, when I have more time to analyze.
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Post Post #254 (ISO) » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:55 am

Post by Phoebus »

I would be really worried if a vigilante minces people up... :?
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Post Post #255 (ISO) » Mon Jul 18, 2005 4:03 am

Post by Thesp »

MeMe wrote:Why would an SK kill Nai? I think it
much
more likely that it was the work of a vigilante.
The flavor is odd for a vigilante, as others have said. I also think the SK (assuming we have one that likes Ziploc bags) realizes if they hit town, they'd lose, too.

I also think the points method of claiming espoused by MeMe is a bad idea. I'm also starting to suspect MeMe more and more, especially after the re-read and her voice swayed the town from Nai to mlaker. She unvoted Nai after the third vote was placed.

At this point, I seriously doubt Yggdrasil is mafia. I'm 85% sure Phoebus is mafia, and I am inclined to think either MeMe or Stewie is Phoebus' compatriot.
Vote: Phoebus.
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Post Post #256 (ISO) » Mon Jul 18, 2005 4:20 am

Post by MeMe »

Very interesting...You spend a paragraph talking about why you believe me to be mafia and then end your post with "I'm 85% sure Phoebus is mafia" and vote him.

Couple of questions:

1)
Why
do you think Phoebus is mafia?
2)
Why
do you think my points claiming idea is a bad one?
3)
Why
do you think "swaying" people to mlaker was a bad idea? He sure looked scummy to me and, apparently, to several others (including you, as you ended day one with your vote on him).
4)
Why
have you abandoned your "mass claim time" idea in favor of a vote with very little discussion -- before half the town has even posted this day?
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Post Post #257 (ISO) » Mon Jul 18, 2005 4:57 am

Post by Thesp »

Warning, TL;DR post ahead!
MeMe wrote:1) Why do you think Phoebus is mafia?
Reasons posted below. I've quoted all of his posts. It's also worth noting that he really hasn't contributed anything constructive towards finding scum.
Phoebus wrote:I'll raise a toast to MeMe and vote: mlaker

Nai has been acting more jumpy than a rabbit on crack but for now, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. Think it's his first big game here? He seems eager to please.
That might account for his behaviour.

I'll still be keeping an eye on him though.
Joins the mlaker bandwagon, defends Nai, but still claims to keep an eye on him. Wishy-washy, wants both sides of the fence.
Phoebus, re: TradaPIB's post about watching rather than participating wrote:Hmm.
It just sounds extremely out of place when no one was talking about you, nor demanding you post or whatever.

Also, you say you'll try to be around more.
That talks to me as you being unavailable/not able to get on scum much.
That's a valid excuse if you called on posting less.
However, you come out of nowhere and claim a "waiting game" with especial emphasis with the quotes?

It just looks fishy and pre-emptive.
Setting up a scapegoat. I personally didn't see the big deal TradaPIB's comment, and found it less likely something scum would have said at the time.
Phoebus, re: TradaPIB's self-defeatist attitude wrote:Stam's attitude does not help...
he seems resigned to a fate he seems to have decided/accepted for himself.

It's so easy to get circular on this...is the frustration because he's town? or because he's scum caught?

Can we have a vote count on this page please?
Wishy-washy again, wants both sides of the fence.
Phoebus wrote:*sigh* Yes.

That's what I get for keeping multiple games open in multiple tabs.

Phoesbus??
That should really count towards your three word limit!
Tries to get another player in trouble.
Phoebus wrote:I've been dwelling on this for all of yesterday now and this is poor my play.
I dither on calling the poor play deserves to lose card but i might just do it.
It's so circular! *sigh*

And crola, I was kidding, hence the :razz:
Wishy-washy again. Stalling.

Most of his posts are without substantive comment. The ones that are have scummy content.
MeMe wrote:2) Why do you think my points claiming idea is a bad one?
I'm beginning to think that the scum may also have their own list of abilities they can buy from, separate from our list. Notice how the ability SpeedyKQ had, which was slightly tweaked to stop
most
kills didn't save him. What sort of kill would kill him? It makes sense to me to think that scum may be able to purchase an unstoppable kill. It also makes sense to me that scum would want to hide that under the guise of "just claiming points". If we do claims, I personally would prefer if MeMe claimed first, abilities, points, and everything (as I think if she's scum, this would most likely catch her, and if she's town, she's most likely exonerated through this), and go from there. I would be willing to do the same afterwards.
MeMe wrote:3) Why do you think "swaying" people to mlaker was a bad idea? He sure looked scummy to me and, apparently, to several others (including you, as you ended day one with your vote on him).
This is a good one. What's notable is the timing of it, that it happened while there was still significant pressure on Nai, whom we know to be scum. My vote was placed for two reasons: because of how he claimed and appeared to stall, and because if he wasn't scum, at the time my not voting him wouldn't stop him from being deadlined lynched and if he was scum, I'd get a point. I acknowledge that it could just as easily appear that I hopped on to get the point were I scum.
MeMe wrote:4) Why have you abandoned your "mass claim time" idea in favor of a vote with very little discussion -- before half the town has even posted this day?
Actually, half the town has posted, aside from myself, this is misrepresentation. It also appears that Yggdrasil is inclined to use mass claim as a last resort to today, MeMe believes a different method of claiming is preferable, and Phoebus appears to be trying to skirt addressing the issue alltogether. I'm still weighing the worthiness of mass-claim to out the rest of the mafia, but at this point I'm pretty convinced Phoebus is one of them.
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Post Post #258 (ISO) » Mon Jul 18, 2005 4:59 am

Post by Thesp »

CORRECTION: I did
not
quote all of Phoebus's posts, as I just said above. I quoted all of his posts I found
notable
. Sorry. :oops:
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Post Post #259 (ISO) » Mon Jul 18, 2005 5:23 am

Post by MeMe »

Nice answers.

I do have replies to a couple of things though:
Thesp wrote:
MeMe wrote:4) Why have you abandoned your "mass claim time" idea in favor of a vote with very little discussion -- before half the town has even posted this day?
Actually, half the town has posted, aside from myself, this is misrepresentation.
No, this is a misunderstanding of my meaning, though I get how it could be read either way. What I meant was that three players (about half of who's left) have yet to post, so you're abandoning your initial idea before half (the second half, that is) have gotten here. And despite the misunderstanding, you still didn't answer the meat of the question -- which is "why vote so fast when you seemed to prefer claiming earlier?"
Thesp wrote:It also appears that Yggdrasil is inclined to use mass claim as a last resort to today, MeMe believes a different method of claiming is preferable
I believe that if we can come up with a way to keep town abilities hidden while catching out scum, that's
certainly
preferable, yeah.
Thesp wrote:It makes sense to me to think that scum may be able to purchase an unstoppable kill. It also makes sense to me that scum would want to hide that under the guise of "just claiming points".
In light of SpeedyKQ's death scene, I think this is a good theory...but if the scum do have things they can buy, I'd hope they're limited to "one of each" like we are (making others who've invested in "unkillable at night" safe).
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Post Post #260 (ISO) » Mon Jul 18, 2005 5:48 am

Post by Thesp »

MeMe wrote:No, this is a misunderstanding of my meaning, though I get how it could be read either way. What I meant was that three players (about half of who's left) have yet to post, so you're abandoning your initial idea before half (the second half, that is) have gotten here. And despite the misunderstanding, you still didn't answer the meat of the question -- which is "why vote so fast when you seemed to prefer claiming earlier?"
We're just short two players, if I'm not mistaken, CoolBot and Stewie. My vote also comes after re-reading the thread. My first post was a reaction to the death scene, before a re-read. Things make a lot more sense going back, knowing who's town and scum at this point. I think I'm convinced enough in Phoebus's scumminess to put that vote down. What do you think of my thoughts on Phoebus?
MeMe wrote:I believe that if we can come up with a way to keep town abilities hidden while catching out scum, that's
certainly
preferable, yeah.
Why is the points-claiming theory at all useful? That's what I don't get. I'd much rather no-claim than merely points-claim.
MeMe wrote:In light of SpeedyKQ's death scene, I think this is a good theory...but if the scum do have things they can buy, I'd hope they're limited to "one of each" like we are (making others who've invested in "unkillable at night" safe).
Hmm...so how is this speculation helpful? Aren't there ~3 different mafia people? Couldn't they each buy one? Wouldn't the possibility of multiple purchases of such balance out the possibility of multiple people purchasing body armor?
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Post Post #261 (ISO) » Mon Jul 18, 2005 6:22 am

Post by MeMe »

Thesp wrote:We're just short two players, if I'm not mistaken, CoolBot and Stewie.
Gah. You're right. I still had TradaPIB as "yet to post" in my spreadsheet. My point still holds, just change it to "one-third" rather than "half." Well, I guess the fact that we have six players left rather than the seven I had listed makes my theory that there could still be three mafia rather unlikely unless one of them's taken a disability that makes winning outright today less than sure.
Thesp wrote:What do you think of my thoughts on Phoebus?
I think there's something there (which I thought was clear from my "nice answers" earlier), but there's no way I think
anyone
should be voted (unless by a cop with a guilty investigation...though your "85%" tells me this isn't the case) when we could be in endgame and before everyone's checked in. Fast days don't help town. Ever.
Thesp wrote:Why is the points-claiming theory at all useful? That's what I don't get. I'd much rather no-claim than merely points-claim.
How could it
hurt
? If we don't get enough information from it then we could move on to a fuller claim. What about my suggestion worries you?
Thesp wrote:
MeMe wrote:In light of SpeedyKQ's death scene, I think this is a good theory...but if the scum do have things they can buy, I'd hope they're limited to "one of each" like we are (making others who've invested in "unkillable at night" safe).
Hmm...so how is this speculation helpful? Aren't there ~3 different mafia people? Couldn't they each buy one? Wouldn't the possibility of multiple purchases of such balance out the possibility of multiple people purchasing body armor?
Um...well how is that speculation
harmful
? Regardless, I just went and read through the front post and it says this...
armlx wrote:You may only buy each ability once, and the mafia can only buy an ability once.
So, basically, why are you arguing with me? My speculation was correct and your counter was wrong. Question is...was it
intentionally
wrong? I'd think mafia would want to go out of their way to appear as though they have
no
idea how the mafia team works...
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Post Post #262 (ISO) » Mon Jul 18, 2005 6:25 am

Post by Yggdrasil »

Here are some thoughts on the players so far:

Stewie - high on my list of probable mafia. Nai defended him in post # 10, he didn't add anything into the discussion about Nai being scummy (other than a "me too" to put him on the side that saw Nai's actions as scummy, and when given the chance by Phoebus' proxy vote, he immediately jumped on mlaker's counterbandwaggon, which eventually got mlaker lynched and spared Nai.

Phoebus - I'd tentatively agree with Thesp on this. He started the mlaker bandwaggon, in a very scummy way to boot (see my earlier post on this -- essentially he made a proxy vote through MeMe, which would allow him to get rid of the responsibility of making that vote if necessary).

Thesp - I'm tempted to say he's town because he's been trying hard to lynch Nai all game, but I'm still suspicious of him. Maybe I'm just paranoid from Locus's Space Transport Mafia and imagining similarities between his actions in the two games. One thing that strikes me as odd is that he never put a vote on Nai on day 2, even though he was pushing to lynch Nai at the beginning of the day.

MeMe - I'd entertain thoughts of her being scum, but it's hard to tell right now.

CoolBot - hasn't done anything scummy yet, but he hasn't really been doing much of anything.
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Post Post #263 (ISO) » Mon Jul 18, 2005 6:58 am

Post by Thesp »

MeMe wrote:I think there's something there (which I thought was clear from my "nice answers" earlier), but there's no way I think
anyone
should be voted (unless by a cop with a guilty investigation...though your "85%" tells me this isn't the case) when we could be in endgame and before everyone's checked in. Fast days don't help town. Ever.
I wasn't looking for a fast day, I was looking for people's thoughts and votes. And while I would disagree that there are times when fast days
can
be good for the town, I agree this is not one of those times. I'll be happy to
Unvote: Phoebus
wih the understanding that I fully intend to vote for him, and am far less likely of voting anyone else as things stand.
MeMe wrote:How could it
hurt
? If we don't get enough information from it then we could move on to a fuller claim. What about my suggestion worries you?
If we points claim, the scum still gets a very good idea of who is a power role and who isn't. I don't see how it gets us closer tof inding scum, since the usual point of mass claims is to verify everyone's stories check out with each other.
MeMe wrote:Um...well how is that speculation
harmful
? Regardless, I just went and read through the front post and it says this...
armlx wrote:You may only buy each ability once, and the mafia can only buy an ability once.
So, basically, why are you arguing with me? My speculation was correct and your counter was wrong. Question is...was it
intentionally
wrong? I'd think mafia would want to go out of their way to appear as though they have
no
idea how the mafia team works...
Derf. My mistake. You are indeed correct on the "mafia only buys once" mechanic.

I also concur with much of Yggdrasil's analysis, particularly on Stewie. I think a Phoebus/Stewie mafia is quite probable.
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Post Post #264 (ISO) » Mon Jul 18, 2005 7:48 am

Post by CoolBot »

Doubt unstoppable kill:
armix wrote:(2 kill mafia = broken)
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Post Post #265 (ISO) » Mon Jul 18, 2005 7:15 pm

Post by Stewie »

Two kill mafia is completly different from unstoppable kill mafia. Two kill mafia is broken because it would be overpowered, but unstoppable kill is not, specially if it it one kill.

I will reread and post something better tomorrow after I reread, that's if I find enough time to do so. Yes, I will do a post by post, so I'll ask for your forgiveness in advance. :D Nai has been alive for long, so there's probably plenty to work with out there. Right now I don't find anyone extremely suspicious, but I will look extra close at the people that took disabilities, since it makes it very hard for others to determine scumminess.
Stewie - high on my list of probable mafia. Nai defended him in post # 10, he didn't add anything into the discussion about Nai being scummy (other than a "me too" to put him on the side that saw Nai's actions as scummy, and when given the chance by Phoebus' proxy vote, he immediately jumped on mlaker's counterbandwaggon, which eventually got mlaker lynched and spared Nai.
Not much to say about this.

1. I don't know why Nai defended me, I cannot control his actions. One possible explanation is that he saw a possible bandwagon, and instead of jumping on like scum would and be sorry for it day two, he thought that perhaps someone else could spark the bandwagon and then blame them later. Or even saving himself beforehand by saying that he painted a target on himself before. He could just say something like "I told you it would happen" if it happened.
2. When I said "Me too" I was agreeing to vote for him if one condition was met, if I recall correctly that condition was something like "if nothing happens." It's not like I had anything to add, if I did I would have. However, everything that had to be said had been said, and I merely agreed to it. Later MeMe pointed out Mlaker's actions, and I thought they were more suspicious than Nai's. I was wrong, but I was not the only one.
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Post Post #266 (ISO) » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:59 pm

Post by Phoebus »

Heh.
Skirting from addressing the issue altogether? Wishy washy?
You can call it that if you like.

I'll claim my own views on mlaker and my vote on him and thank you to keep MeMe out of this. His play at the time was fairly scummy. You disagree?
I still don't really get the proxy through MeMe part...
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Post Post #267 (ISO) » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:35 am

Post by Thesp »

Stewie wrote:Two kill mafia is completly different from unstoppable kill mafia. Two kill mafia is broken because it would be overpowered, but unstoppable kill is not, specially if it it one kill.

I will reread and post something better tomorrow after I reread, that's if I find enough time to do so. Yes, I will do a post by post, so I'll ask for your forgiveness in advance. :D
I agree with the first part of this, and look forward to the second.
Phoebus wrote:Heh.
Skirting from addressing the issue altogether? Wishy washy?
You can call it that if you like.
Apparently, you're still skirting the issue.
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Post Post #268 (ISO) » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:41 am

Post by Phoebus »

What do you want me to say? OMG! I'm scum, lynch me?
I won't. I'm not.

I've already said that I've posted when I thought it warranted posting and that I've been playing by gut all along. If that's wishy washy to you, so be it.
I have nothing that I need to clear from my conscience if that's what you mean by "skirting the issue"
I claimed responsibility for my vote as far as ygg is concerned and I still dunno what he means by proxy through MeMe...
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Post Post #269 (ISO) » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:47 am

Post by Thesp »

The issue you skirted earlier (and are now, intentionally or not) was the idea of claiming or not.
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Post Post #270 (ISO) » Tue Jul 19, 2005 2:53 am

Post by Phoebus »

Er...I never saw that my opinion was expressly being asked for.
I don't mind either way.
I have no set opinion as yet and may as well wait and see what the others think.
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Post Post #271 (ISO) » Tue Jul 19, 2005 5:42 am

Post by Stewie »

Coolbot
Meme
Yggdrasil
Thesp
Phoebus

Day one:

Nai votes for Thesp, then for Ygg

Phoebus is the first to vote mlaker. That's not the suspicious part, but this is:
Phoebus wrote:Nai has been acting more jumpy than a rabbit on crack but for now, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. Think it's his first big game here? He seems eager to please.
His reason not to vote Nai sounds crappy. Also, MeMe starts the bandwagon without adding her vote until mlaker has 3 votes, making it four. This is not so suspicious since we had a deadline when she voted, and I assume she was trying to get the game moving.

MeMe mentions the fact that trada apologised for not being around without being mentioned. I personally see nothing wrong with apologising, and while meme merely mentioned the fact, phoebus tries hard to incriminate him.

Ygg says he wants to switch to mlaker if it doesn't put him close to a lynch. Not suspicious, I just wanted to make a note.

Thesp votes for Ygg with Nai.

Vote analysis:
Voted for Nai: MeMe, Thesp, Yggdrasil, Speedy
Voted for Mlaker: Phoebus, Stewie, CoolBot, MeMe, Thesp
Voted for Mlaker but not for Nai: Phoebus, Stewie, Coolbot
Voted for Mlaker but not for Nai and expressed no intention to vote for Nai: Phoebus

Day two:

Speedy mentions Nai as possible lynch target. MeMe acknowledges this, but mentions that Nai is not the only one, given Trada's twilight comment. Not like it wasn't suspicious, just thought I mentioned this.

Voted for Trada: Yggdrasil, MeMe, Coolbot, Thesp, Nai

The person I'm most suspicious of right now is Phoebus, given the vote analysis for day one and the fact that he actually defended Nai, while everyone else that didn't vote for Nai at least expressed concern of his behaviour. If I had to attach him to someone right now, I'd say MeMe or Ygg, but that's more of a vibe than actual evidence. There's no point in worrying about it now anyways, since we can only lynch one person at a time.

Questions? Thoughts? Anything to add? I'll probably vote for Phoebus if nobody changes my mind.
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Post Post #272 (ISO) » Tue Jul 19, 2005 6:45 am

Post by MeMe »

What's the list at the beginning of the post for?
Remember...It's not a lie if you believe it. -- G. Costanza
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Post Post #273 (ISO) » Tue Jul 19, 2005 4:09 pm

Post by Stewie »

Oh, I wrote that in my notepad to make sure who I had to focus on. Ignore it.
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Post Post #274 (ISO) » Tue Jul 19, 2005 5:50 pm

Post by MeMe »

The vote analysis is, for me, the most convincing case against Phoebus.

Looking over the posts though, I'm also concerned about CoolBot. He, as Stewie pointed out, never voted for Nai -- and, while he expressed an interest in doing so on Day 1...
CoolBot wrote:I agree we should pressure Nai. Not only did he assume MeMe wasn't scum, he was pretty jumpy for getting a vote instead of an fos from Yggdrasil and went so far as to vote him for it. I'd add a vote to the bandwagon, but that leaves him one vote away from a lynch. If he doesn't explain himself, I will change my vote to him.
...that could also be read as a partner telling Nai to get in here and say something convincing. Nai posts within 40 minutes of CoolBot's threat, but CB waits four days to come back in...
CoolBot wrote:I think we can let Nai go for now. I wasn't aware he was so new to the game, and his comment about fos procedure is something someone new to the game would think.
...and, in hindsight, I wonder if it was to let the heat cool on Nai so he'd not be looked at askew for not voting him as promised.

I'm also now looking at this comment with fresh eyes...
CoolBot wrote:I guess we're not worried about a penalty for skirting around a post restriction.
Which was in response to me using the smiley code Speedy put together. Was he hoping the mod would shut it down?

And another thing: Stewie's been the only one I'd not have entertained a vote for since day one. He was the first to notice my restriction and suggest that I be given a voice -- if he's scum, that would've been a very weird thing to do.

I'm leaning toward Phoebus & CoolBot being together.
Remember...It's not a lie if you believe it. -- G. Costanza

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