DP12 JeepFest Mafia GAME OVER

[Leonidas]

I'm here. Not even lurking, just busy, should get better from now on.

Apologies.

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote: Someone

. This is based on an analysis of yesterday's vote counts.

1. Someone was one of the people on all 3 of the big bandwagons (Vesuvan, SK, PBug) yesterday. So were others, including... er, well, anyway, moving on...

2. More importantly, as the deadline approached, he was the subject of 1 of the 3 bandwagons, the other 2 being Olio (pro-town) and PBug (pro-town). Were the other bandwagons driven by scum trying to save their buddy?

[Dragon Phoenix]

Vote count, nine to evict:

MeMe 1 (rolandofthewhite)
Nox 1 (Comodore Amazing)
Someone 1 (Mr Stoofer)

Not voting: far too freaking many players

Could we have a little more votes, please?

[Leonidas]

vote: Mr. Stoofer

based exclusively on guts.

I say he's scum - and I mean it.

[Someone]

Heh. I'm being voted because I'm alive. Not much I can do about it I guess.

I notice that you've been on somewhat of a vendetta against me in this game, stoofer (Okay, maybe not a vendetta, but you've came back for a second time ). Is there any other reason you find me scummy? Or is it just this bandwagonning thing you keep accusing me of?

[Vesuvan]

Vesuvan

: If I find out that someone's holding the role of SaberKitty, I'll want to take a good look at them. Why would you try to

quash

speculation stemming from the morning scene?

I always try to quash

unfounded

speculation, especially when it casts suspicion on a specific role-name that may or may not be responsible and may or may not even be in the game. The reason for this is that if someone comes forward and claims to be Saberkitty, then the person doing so will be considered scummy based on that speculation, especially if they claim to have a non-killing role. If someone who is scum happens to be Saberkitty, then this sort of speculation could assist them in making a vig claim.

Basically, it's unfounded speculation and it has the potential to either mis-inform the town or assist scum in making false claims.

Since DP has asked for more people to vote and I don't really have much else to work with at this stage,

Vote: MeMe

[MeMe]

It was speculation, yes -- but the foundation for it was the fact that the eyes were the target.

Fine to disagree with me, but I was working off of mod-provided information.

[Axelrod]

Mr. Stoofer has a point. Someone was the other person receiving a few votes yesterday, and he was bandwagoning quite a bit. But I'm hesitant to vote based only on that right now.

I feel better voting for someone who hasn't contributed much thus far (and has a shiny Best Serial Killer Tag to boot) who suddenly decides to pop in and vote for a person who appears to be making an effort, "based exclusively on guts" and says nothing else.

Vote: Leonidas

I hope your posting does get better.

[Nox]

vote: Nox

. It's hard to really go by yesterday's voting pattern to find the most scummy person (since olio turned out clean), but I felt Nox was really pushing her arguments against PBug, maybe to protect suspicion against someone else? I know it's not much of a vote, but does anyone have anything else?

My vote for PBug was, I'm sorry to say since he turned out town, highly supported and I presented my evidence on as to why I found him scummy. Absolutly contentlessposts, apart from getting drunk once, the only text he put in his posts were votes. I found this highly scummy, as he was jumping on every passing bandwagon, WITHOUT supporting his votes. A player that only lurks around and jumps on every bandwagon with posts like" OMG Youre right! Vote:someone"or "OMG What he says is true ! Vote:Someone else" really passes off as scummy for me. I don't think anyone could deny that. Yes, I was pressing hard. I don't deny it. What do you want?

I thought he was scum

.

And, might I add, I dont recall voting for Vesuvan nor Saberkitty.

[LoudmouthLee]

And, might I add, I dont recall voting for Vesuvan nor Saberkitty.

I may add that you were AWAY for those two bandwagons. Very interesting that you use that as a defense, when you weren't posting at all.

Vote: Nox

[the silent speaker]

Charting all the bandwagons:
* Ves SK olio Some PBuG
Some yes yes yes - no
rol yes no no no yes
NTW no no no yes yes
MeMe no no no no yes
Shad yes no no yes no
LML yes no yes no no
Ves - yes yes no no
Fuldu no no no yes no
PB no yes yes no no
Stoof no yes no yes yes
Leon no no yes no no
ARod no no yes yes no
EYNH yes no no no yes
CA yes yes no no yes
tss yes yes yes no no
SK yes - no no yes
Nox no no no no yes

Hopefully this will help voting record analyses. Here's mine.

We know olio and PBuG are not scum. Fun tidbit: nobody was on both their bandwagons.
Looking at olio's wagon: either two of Leonidas, Vesuvan and Someone are scum or none are, I think; either the oliowagon was scum-approved from the start or not, and it doesn't look scum-approved for only the second go-round. (To be fair, that's kind of circular as part of the reason I say it doesn't look like a scum-approved second wave is that the second wave is largely people I know aren't or don't think are scum, like me and LML.)
Looking at PBuG's wagon: Roland and MeMe voted in quick succession, and not too long after Fuldu and Mr Stoofer followed suit. That was it until a deadline loomed, and with PBug ahead but only on points, Commodore Amazing, EnterYourNameHere, and NanookTheWolf all voted in quick succession. SaberKitty became the ninth vote on her

second bandwagon of the day

and that was it.

Suppose the oliowagon is clean and SaberKitty is scum. The people to look at then are Commodore, EYNH and Nanook for the PBug thing and Roland, Nanook, MeMe, Shadow, Fuldu, EYNH and Nox for not voting SK (the people who didn't vote SK but did vote olio are cleared by the first assumption); top suspicion goes to Nanook and EYNH, lesser so to Roland, MeMe and Fuldu (but I doubt more than one of those three is scum, based on this hypothesis of the development of the PBuG wagon). Doubtless there will be some scum who

did

vote SK to throw us off, but we can worry about those after.

Suppose the oliowagon is clean and SaberKitty is town. Looking at the kittywagon: Commodore and PB voted her quickly, after PB had been FOSed by roland and MeMe for "miscounting when SaberKitty clearly labeled her vote the ninth." Roland voted PB (presumably for switching his vote with no explanation) and SaberKitty followed -- but that bandwagon, by this paragraph's assumption, is at least half-clean. Vesuvan now joined the Kittywagon as did Mr Stoofer (who added a comment that he didn't understand the PB thing) and olio. Someone jumped really quickly on too. PBuG threw on an eighth vote and then the bandwagon began to dwindle: Vesuvan found olio suspicious, PB was swayed by SaberKitty's noticing that some people hadn't posted in four whole days, Someone "didn't feel SK was really that scummy" to begin with, and PBuG congratulated her on a job well done. Commodore Amazing with an unvote "for now" added:

I haven't really seen much from Someone, PBug, Fuldu, or EnterYourNameHere that makes me want to vote for them,

when Fuldu and EYNH didn't even have votes. (EYNH had one from MeMe; that's it.)
So: the people who jumped and aren't by hypothesis town are Commodore and Mr Stoofer. Commodore's comment suggests reflected suspicion on Fuldu and EYNH, and Mr Stoofer's suggests stretching the definition of "a clean bandwagon" to allow PB to be scum.

Suppose the oliowagon is scum-approved. Then the people to look at are Vesuvan, Leonidas and Someone. Since Someone voted Vesuvan, likeliest is Leo and Ves; Vesuvan's vote suggests town SaberKitty and scum-approved Kittywagon. Also, if Leonidas is innocent, it follows that Someone and Vesuvan are scum, and it's telling that both of them were on the Kittywagon. Again Commodore and Mr Stoofer come under high suspicion, accompanied this time by PB, with Fuldu and EYNH on the very outside.

Recap of the recap: scenario 1, suspicion level 3 (highest) Nanook, EYNH; suspicion level 2 Fuldu, MeMe, roland; suspicion level 1 Commodore Amazing, Mr Stoofer.
Scenario 2, suspicion level 3 Commodore Amazing, Mr Stoofer; level 2 Fuldu, EYNH; level 1, PB.
Scenario 3, suspicion level 3 Vesuvan, Leonidas, Someone; level 2.5 Commodore Amazing, Mr Stoofer, PB; level 1 Fuldu, EYNH.

I was suspicious of Commodore Amazing already yesterday. Let's go back to the tried and true.

Vote: Commodore Amazing. FOS: Mr Stoofer, EnterYourNameHere, Fuldu.

[the silent speaker]

Crap, I thought the chart would format better. Sorry. Is it still readable?

[Nox]

And, might I add, I dont recall voting for Vesuvan nor Saberkitty.

I may add that you were AWAY for those two bandwagons. Very interesting that you use that as a defense, when you weren't posting at all.

Vote: Nox

I left after the beginning of Vesuvan's bandwagon, and returned in the midst of Saberkitty's.

[the silent speaker]

By oversight, I left out that SaberKitty is obviously suspicion level 3 for the first scenario, since part of the scenario is that she is scum.

[Vesuvan]

vote: Nox

. It's hard to really go by yesterday's voting pattern to find the most scummy person (since olio turned out clean), but I felt Nox was really pushing her arguments against PBug, maybe to protect suspicion against someone else? I know it's not much of a vote, but does anyone have anything else?

My vote for PBug was, I'm sorry to say since he turned out town, highly supported and I presented my evidence on as to why I found him scummy. Absolutly contentlessposts, apart from getting drunk once, the only text he put in his posts were votes. I found this highly scummy, as he was jumping on every passing bandwagon, WITHOUT supporting his votes. A player that only lurks around and jumps on every bandwagon with posts like" OMG Youre right! Vote:someone"or "OMG What he says is true ! Vote:Someone else" really passes off as scummy for me. I don't think anyone could deny that. Yes, I was pressing hard. I don't deny it. What do you want?

I thought he was scum

.

And, might I add, I dont recall voting for Vesuvan nor Saberkitty.

*checks Nox's voting patterns*

right you are.

Unvote: MeMe
Vote: Commodore Amazing

[Axelrod]

@TSS: I'm impressed (though I will admit I didn't completely follow everything). Seems like a reasonable place to start today. And since DP wants more voting:

Unvote: Leonidas

Vote: Commodore Amazing

I still would like to see Leo post more. I thought he was a good player.

[Commodore Amazing]

I don't understand why we're using votes against Vesuvan and SaberKitty as damning evidence. Neither of them has been confirmed innocent.

To Axelrod, I was in a game with Leonidas for a while, and he posted about as much as he has this game, and he turned out not to be scum. I was going after him most of the game. I think Leonidas will be hard to get a read on.

To the silent speaker, the reason I said: "I haven't really seen much from Someone, PBug, Fuldu, or EnterYourNameHere that makes me want to vote for them," was because I thought they were the most scummy people in the game, but I didn't really think there was any evidence against any of them worth a vote. Also, why are you giving them a FOS now? Is it only because I said that I didn't think they were scum?

I don't feel like I should be getting much crap for voting for PBug. At least I made a decision. If anything, the people who didn't vote for PBug or olio are suspicious since they could just sit aside and not really care who was lynched while the pro-town had to put themselves out there.

[Fuldu]

Leonidas' general mafia policy has seemed to be playing in the background as much as he can get away with without being lynched or replaced for lurking. Partly I think this is because he has a variable schedule with the associated variable access and partly because it seems to work reasonably well for him. But yes, it makes it very difficult to get a handle on him.

CA: What did you see from the four named individuals that made you think them scummy but that you didn't think constituted evidence to merit a vote? That seems dodgy to me. tss's rationale for FOSing those individuals is "reflected suspicion," which means that since he thinks you're scum, he thinks you were posting names of fellow scum amongst a list of people you find scummy so that if one of them turns up dead, you look pro-town for having suspected them. It's not a great argument, but neither is it a horrible one. Of course, as one of the four people on the list, I have an incentive to say that.

I'm more inclined to go with Leonidas' gut than tss's argument, but that's perhaps largely because I come off poorly under tss's argument, which I know to be a false conclusion. Plus it makes yesterday's random vote seem prophetic.

vote: Mr. Stoofer

[NanookTheWolf]

I personally can't base a vote purely on somebody's gut feeling, especially when that person who's having this feeling has posted a total of 4 times in the game.

[Fuldu]

Reasonable, but when his gut feelings coincide with mine, and I have concerns about the methodology behind the Commodore Amazing bandwagon, it seems a reasonable approach, as well.

[The Shadow]

I'm leaving tomorrow on a week long trip. Should have net access, but if you don't spot anyone skulking in the shadows, it's probably because I'm not here.

[NanookTheWolf]

Reasonable, but when his gut feelings coincide with mine, and I have concerns about the methodology behind the Commodore Amazing bandwagon, it seems a reasonable approach, as well.

I'm not really sure how I feel about Commodore right now, I guess this weekend if I have time I'll read up on him a bit, as I really don't know what the argument is against him right now besides gut feelings.

[Leonidas]

Since DP wants more voting:

Unvote: Leonidas
Vote: Commodore Amazing

You're not helping DP, since he's not gaining any vote in the process...

I still would like to see Leo post more. I thought he was a good player.

I've played a lot of games, but alas quantity is different from quality.

Anyway - I've shared my guts feelings, so I think we have a simple way to find out.

[Axelrod]

So I've been thinking a little more, and I've decided that it makes little sense for the mafia to pile on PBug at the end of the day when there was a deadline and the next closest vote getter was also town.

The people who voted PBug right at the end were: Commodore Amazing; EYNH; Nanook; and Saberkitty. This, initially, makes me less suspicious of all of them. But, we have to remember that, at the time, there was one other person with significant votes--Someone. Someone had four votes and was just one behind the others. He was still at risk of being the lynch. So mafia

might

have decided to push one of the other bandwagons to give him a little breathing room.

If Someone is scum, then there is an increased chance that Commodore Amazing, and perhaps EYNH are scum. But, if Someone is not scum, well, I can't see any mafia feeling the need to vote at all (or change their current vote). If Someone is not scum, then CA, EYNH, Nanook and Saberkitty all seem much clearer. If Someone is scum, then CA and EYNH look slightly worse (though it's hardly dispositive) and I

still

think that the mafia wouldn't have felt the need to vote any more (PBug had a 3 vote lead over Someone after EYNH voted with only about 20 hours to go.

So I guess I'm saying Nanook and Saberkitty look clearer to me regardless. And it only makes sense for CA and EYNH to possibly be mafia if Someone also is. To be fair, the same analysis suggests Peacebringer shouldn't be mafia, as he chimed in late with a vote for Olio, which was pointless if he was scum, and risky since Olio was innocent. (The same might be said of me, I suppose, but I'll let others be the judge of me).

This analysis, of course, doesn't take into account the possibility that the mafia played poorly and unnecessarily bandwagoned an innocent.

@Leonidas: I'm "helping" DP by getting on an actual bandwagon that might result in some useful information for the town, and might spur conversation, instead of doing my own thing. Although now I think CA is probably only mafia if Someone is also. And I haven't looked back to see if that's consistant with their earlier votes.

[MeMe]

I'm leaving tomorrow on a week long trip. Should have net access, but if you don't spot anyone skulking in the shadows, it's probably because I'm not here.

Well, this explains your absence for next week...but not your absence for the

past

week.

Also, PeaceBringer has yet to post today.