Newbie 871 - Game Over Town Win

[Annachie]

It can bee seen as the scum directing the PR's which is not a good idea, and quite often is seen as the PR themself crumbing what they are going to do, and thus risking an NK.
It could also be a scum tactic for getting the doc to cover the wrong person. It could even be a scum tactic to verify if there is a doc.

Nothing about it looks good.


I'm thinking I have to go back and re-read the entire thread since I was wrong. Especially Patrick, my longest own read.

[starkmoon]

I am going to replace Ether.

Other stuff will also happen. (like vote counts and prod checking)

[starkmoon]

Yankee
boberz
Annachie 1 ksen
ksen
Ether
Patrick 1 boberz

Not Voting
Yankee
Annachie
Ether
Patrick

OK, prod checks are going to wait till later in the evening, everytime I look at my monitor I am blinded by a beam of sunlight I CANNOT manage to move the curtain to cover.... *Storms of muttering about snow and light and reflections* (seriously I have been trying to cover it for half an hour now and my eyes are starting to water)

[boberz]

INteresting, why would this happen. I have a theory.
Patrick can you shed any lighht on this. Is she unwell, or busy or anything else.

I cant see how she could be scum she would have come back by now. This is so easy, I want the replacement to claim straightaway please.

[Patrick]

Ok, this is almost certainly going to have to happen anyway, I'm vanilla.

@Yankee: Here's how I see it. I think we likely have a doctor who stopped a kill last night. If we mislynch now, we lose unless the doctor can stop the next scum nightkill, which is impossible if the doctor has claimed. For that reason I could see some situations where it would be better to keep the doctor hidden by not having anyone claim doc/not doc. I think it would have been at least better for us to get people on record with this and first establish whether or not we have a cop before just having people claiming all over the place; I couldn't see a downside to at least discussing it. I'd like you to explain why you feel all these claims immediately was a better claim strategy and why you find me and ksen scummy based on it because at the moment I really don't see what you're arguing. Also in case you hadn't noticed, boberz has claimed vanilla.

INteresting, why would this happen. I have a theory.
Patrick can you shed any lighht on this. Is she unwell, or busy or anything else.

She's around. She's just flaked from the game which is something she does semi-often. I doubt she's scum, though I'm starting to doubt a previous thought as well.

[boberz]

I think we are on the same wavlength there, in which case I will simply apologise to you Patrick for going in hard and possibly offending you last night.

Why would she pick up prods if she was flaking, and she was hitting it so hard in day 1.

[ksen]

I really hate doing this this early. But it's clear boberz isn't going to let it drop.

I'm the cop.

As I said in the beginning on day 1 it wouldn't surprise me if one of the SE's or the IC was a member of the scum team so that the scum player would have someone to get advice from as well.

With that in mind:

Night 1 I viewed Incog who, obviously was town.

On Night 2 I moved away from that thinking and decided to check one of the two remaining players who seemed scummiest at the time, Yankee. He came up town.

I almost viewed Ether and now that I hear she is being replaced I wish I had gone through with it.

Those are my views. I don't expect to live through the night unless there's a doc (which I suspect there is) and he/she decides to protect me.

Did I mention I really hated outing this early?

[Yankee]

hmmm. Interesting. While I agree about what you say about the doc claiming, with this many claimed Vanilla Townies I think it would drastically help us as a whole if the Doc protected someone that is not myself or ksen last night. If he does that, then that means Cop = Ksen, Doc = ???, Townie = Yankee, Townie = ???. With the Doc claim of who he protected last night (again, granted that he didnt protect ksen or myself, we will have filled in the blanks and only scum would be left. If you did protect myself or ksen, stay hidden and that will answer the question of who the doctor protected last night. And yes, I am taking Ksen's claim as fact unless someone CC's.

[boberz]

You were told that they are picked randomly, why did you pick incog???

You shouldnt hate being outed this early, it is clear that a cop claim was the best thing to happen.

Did you try to tell us who you were gonna check before the night time on either night, if so where. If you are right, who are the most likely scum out of annachie ether patrick and me i suppose.

It is the obvious fakeclaim to make. But it doesnt mean it is wrong.

[boberz]

yankee dont, it may be that there is no cop so dont wait for a counter claim necessarily.

Patrick what do you think about this claim considering what we had thought (still think?) yesterday.

[boberz]

by the way did anyone else pick up on what i was thinking yesterday in terms of a potential cop and check?

[ksen]

by the way did anyone else pick up on what i was thinking yesterday in terms of a potential cop and check?

I didn't. Subtelty isn't my strong point . . . ask my wife.

[ksen]

You were told that they are picked randomly, why did you pick incog???

I'm assuming this is rhetorical since I said why I did it when I claimed.

You shouldnt hate being outed this early, it is clear that a cop claim was the best thing to happen.

If I had views of two people still alive I wouldn't have been as hesitant to out. If I had a view of a scum player I would have outed with my first post of the day.

Did you try to tell us who you were gonna check before the night time on either night, if so where.

No, cause I suck at dropping hints. I drop hints like anvils, everybody tends to notice it.

If you are right, who are the most likely scum out of annachie ether patrick and me i suppose.

Even though you've really upped the aggression level today I'm still pretty confident you are town.

The most likely pairing in my mind for those who are left are either Annachie and Patrick or Annachie and Ether. Since Annachie is the common denominator in my potential pairings that is who I am voting for.

[boberz]

I've upped aggresion because i can afford to and i think ive got this. But you claiming wasnt one of them.

Why did you pick incog SINCE you were told it was random.

You being out, if you are a cop (you may be, i am still assessing) means we are in a very very strong position. We need that replacement of course.

Fair enough about the hints, but it obviously makes it harder to assess you.

Not Patrick and Ether?

[boberz]

btw if you didnt want to claim you should have just claimed townie, as patrick suggested a cop might do, not that i think the cop should for the reasons yankee stated.

I want an ether replacement to claim as soon as they arrive please, (incase people are reading this wondering whether to play)

[boberz]

Annachie what do you think ether is/was?

[Annachie]

I would hate to think that I pushed Ether so hard for a wrong result. Also I suspect that if I was wrong she'd want to hang around and rub my face in it.
Especially if I was also wrong (as it appears) about both Yankee and Tyrope.

The problem is still a Ksen/Yankee scum team.

Follow me here: If the scum team are two goons and if they had an NK blocked then they know there is a doc. They can fake a cop claim because they know there is no cop to counter claim.

hmm.... alot has happened since i was on for break today. The way the conversation between Patrick and Boberz is going, it sounds almost as if Boberz is the cop and is just getting a feel of everyone before he actually claims.

I also get mixed feelings from today since Yankee's play is the more consistent with being a partner to Annachie but his play also has what I think is a town sign.

Clearly not the case now.

After reading the first few posts for D3, I'm leaning towards Ksen claim being false.

[ksen]

Not Patrick and Ether?

Possible, but I was giving my strongest feels.

[boberz]

What worries me most is that ksen's claim is possible but was the obvious fake claim to make. He shouldnt have checked incog just idiotic, but if ksen is safe i found out he was stubborn and rubbish in day 1.

You are also right to say that mafia knows there is a doc if they tried to kill, and suspected there was one if there was a no kill. We need to see ether's spot claim before we can evaluate this properly.

I think that fake claim would not have had to be masterminded by a particularly good player but any other fake claim may have been, a point in your favour patrick. But a point against you ksen.

Basically because i said ksen and annachie very quickly i lean that way. Also some may remember a theory i had about scum releasing pressure on ksen and herd, tis patrick and ether (to a lesser extent) i attribute to this (only counts if yankee is town i 90.57% cetain he is) Patrick also was feeling me out about that point rather than arguing it.

So my list before the ether claims, probability (of being scum) analysis:
dont look good for you ksen, but i wouldnt worry, the ether claim will probably help you out.

Yankee - 9.43
Patrick - 49.03
Ether - 24.51
Annachie - 49.03
ksen - 66%
boberz - 0%

If no one else speaks ever again i favour a no-lynch.

[boberz]

unvote vote ksen

i dont understand if ksen is the cop why yankee wasnt his least scummy at the beginning of today.

ksen if you unclaim now, and tell me why you fake claimed i can believe you, I thought about doing that myself. You need to tell me why quickly though.

[ksen]

After reading the first few posts for D3, I'm leaning towards Ksen claim being false.

Not surprising since I voted for you yesterday and am still voting for you today.

[Patrick]

Interesting stuff. I agree that Ether's replacement needs to claim. They can do so before reading the game. boberz, I guess that'll throw some light on yesterday's theory.

ksen's night 1 choice is rather weird and convenient. If he's scum then I don't think his clearing of Yankee makes Yankee obvscum, but it is a possibility. Yankee, what leads you to believe his claim if there isn't a counterclaim?

If ksen is telling the truth that leaves me with 2 scum in Annachie/boberz/Ether's replacement, which is possible but means I would have misread at least one player.

boberz, what makes you think that if ksen is scum his partner is most likely Annachie? I think Yankee would be more likely there, as it would at least explain why ksen would gambit.

I'm semi VLA this weekend, playing in a chess tournament.

[ksen]

i dont understand if ksen is the cop why yankee wasnt his least scummy at the beginning of today.

ksen if you unclaim now, and tell me why you fake claimed i can believe you, I thought about doing that myself. You need to tell me why quickly though.

I didn't have him as my least scummy because I wanted to see if anyone would still press to vote for him.

See? I told you subtelty wasn't my strong point.

[boberz]

@ksen Rubbish excuse try again...
(are you defo cop, last chance to pull out, that wont make you necessarily scummy if you have a reason)

@patrick I had annachie and ksen from day 1 on seperate reads and on reaction to me attacking ksen, i have quotes to prove some of this but lets wait for ethers claim. Also i suspect yankee may be claer for a seperate read, based on questioning day 1, day 2 actions and day 3 his first post sounded genuine to me (in fact so have all his today). I also have some night analysis but that is just me guessing what others would think, as I say wait for ether. I may be wrong there of course.

Can you explain 'gambit' please? from what i know of it, in this situation would be attached to much too much wifom for me to think about, but i misunderstand it a bit.

I wouldnt be too quick to believe ksen, it is not the best fake claim in the world. A better one would have been perhaps claiming he was role blocked second night or anything like that, this seems to crude. That said don't think i am rubbishing him, this could be true.

good luck in the tournament, hope you win.

[boberz]

After reading the first few posts for D3, I'm leaning towards Ksen claim being false.

Not surprising since I voted for you yesterday and am still voting for you today.

that is a scummy post my friend.