Seemingly Normal Mafia (Over)

[Kairyuu]

/sigh

I don't understand why people still do that, even though they KNOW that the next person to post will demand that they explain themselves.

Obligatory

vote: magnus_orion

for being scum because I'm not.

[Kairyuu]

Note: That was me demanding you explain yourself.

[Kairyuu]

@magnus: I will hunt you down and kill you if you do not cease that ridiculous attempt at being funny immediately. Do not forget,

I know where you live

(well, where the rest of your family lives and where you go back to during breaks from school anyway . . . MOVING ON).

A note: Today is going to be rather busy, and so is tomorrow, so don't expect anything out of me until Friday. V/LA until then.

[Kairyuu]

Upon catch-up, both wagons have merit, but the one on magnus is far more relevant in my opinion (for personal meta reasons as well as the points that have been repeated multiple times already). My vote stays, though I'm willing to hammer TF if he reaches L-1. Too scummy to be scum doesn't actually exist.

[Kairyuu]

@all: I'm taking a few days off from pretty much everything due to some personal issues, which may or may not involve travelling without access to internet. If you want me replaced for it then go ahead. Mafia isn't really a top priority for me right now.

[Kairyuu]

Computer fixed as of ~1 hour ago. I'll get to a catch up post after I finish the week worth of homework I'm behind on.

[Kairyuu]

My gut rumbles against people voting Toon. He isn't giving off scum vibes methinks. dana, on the other hand, is trying way to hard to appease his attackers.

vote: dana

[Kairyuu]

@dana: No, if there was suspicion on me, I'd argue that it's wrong, not attempt to change my behavior so that less people find it scummy. Please provide an argument as to why playing to reduce suspicion on yourself as opposed to playing to lynch scum is pro-town.

And before you accuse me of presenting a false dichotomy, take note that switching your vote because other people don't like it (especially when that is the reason you give for the switch) is the exact scenerio I presented.

[Kairyuu]

Just played way to much MtG. Physics test tomorrow morning. Sleep now, studying later, posting after test.

[Kairyuu]

@dana: /sigh

I explained why my demand did not present a false dichotomy, but while claiming you didn't understand that paragraph, you claimed exactly that.

The main point is that you're appeasing your attackers, and doing so at the expense of playing to catch scum. The strongest tool of a town aligned player is the ability to use your vote to eliminate scum during the Day. By shifting a vote YOU stated you would support even though you knew it would cause suspicion on you simply because the suspicion you expected actually happened, you are stating that you are more willing to attempt to buy off suspicion than you are to follow your stated suspicions. That tells me that your priorities are not those of town. For town, the top priority is lynching scum. For scum however, it is far more important to stay alive. If you're going to argue from the position of a town power role, then your win condition is still making the scum dead. It isn't using your role once or twice before dying and then maybe hitting scum also. I've used myself as cannon fodder to nab scum while I was a power role before, and I don't doubt I'll do it again.

Essentially, I'm saying that you're giving up your main tool to catch scum in exchange for the chance to stay alive, and I'm asking you to provide a pro-town argument for keeping yourself alive INSTEAD OF scumhunting. I'm not asking you if that's what you think you're doing. Provide an argument for how it's pro-town, or admit that you're scum.

[Kairyuu]

@Konowa: While I agree with your stance that we're lynching dana due to the fact that he's scum, I am not in agreement with your offer of a compromise. dana must die. There is no other outcome of this Day that will be sufficient.*

*If dana does not die but the person who does is scum then that statement was false.

[Kairyuu]

@EB: Unless I can be convinced that someone else is scummier than dana (not happening) I will not let go unless my vote is REQUIRED to lynch someone else, and I will still only switch if I have good reason to suspect them too. I tunnel when I've got a strong read. I've tunnelled nearly nonstop for 37 pages accross 6 days before as a mason. Either dana will die or I will. He is the optimal lynch today honestly, and I would rather he die NOW than stall the Day needlessly. Sure, discussion is nice, but lynching scum is the point of the game. Endless discussion and pushing competing wagons for the sake of it is boring, and makes me lose interest in games. The dana-scum wagon has me interested. I'd like it to end in a lynch that proves me right. Other scum can be linked to the first once the first is dead. Making connections before one is dead doesn't work.

[Kairyuu]

Provide an argument for how it's pro-town

I already have. It's pro-town because it's pro-me and I'm pro-town. I can't help town if I'm dead.

-twitch-
-twitch-

Do us all a favor and self-vote. You need to die.

[Kairyuu]

V/LA today, possibly tomorrow as well

[Kairyuu]

/sigh

I don't see dana dying, which saddens me. I am willing to compromise to Fate, but I maintain my stance that Toon is town.

unvote
vote: Fate

dana is still the better lynch, but I suspect this will hit scum as well.

[Kairyuu]

vote: dana

The doc flips explain the lack of a N1, but nothing else changes really. dana is still scum, and TF is still town.

[Kairyuu]

edit: Lack of a kill N1

[Kairyuu]

I don't think they were lovers... if one dies, the other committs suicide the following night, IIRC . Jack and farside both died on the same night.

This doesn't always happen. Some versions have an immediate suicide. Alternate possibility would be that the scum don't kill every Night, but instead get 2 kills on even Nights. Hell, there are tons of possible explanations, but none of them speed along a dana lynch.

Early claims like that demonstrate a desire to cause suspicion to evaporate before it picks up speed. This is scummy. Die scum die.

Also, Konowa makes a good point. I would support a bv wagon as well if the dana wagon goes nowhere.

[Kairyuu]

@jbernier: Just for clarification, being on the lynch wagons of D1 and D2 is scummy? Please elaborate.

[Kairyuu]

@jbernier: Just for clarification, being on the lynch wagons of D1 and D2 is scummy? Please elaborate.

If the first two lynches are on town, (which they were) at least one of the scum is likely to be on at least one, if not both of the wagons.

Alright, so essentially you just said that out of the 12 total people who contributed to the D1 and D2 lynches, at least one of them is scum. Considering that it's either that or we've got only 2 scum (i assume 4-5 in 15 players) and BOTH stayed off both lynches, then it's highly likely you're right. However, calling it a scumtell is an extreme stretch at best.

[Kairyuu]

Oh, wait, no. For some reason I was thinking we had 15 players, but there's 20. Still, more than half of the players in this game were on at least one of the wagons, and more than 1/4 were on both (there were 6, including 2 that you failed to even mention this fact for in your little analysis post). I don't really see how you can call that a scumtell.

[Kairyuu]

unvote
vote: bv

That's enough to tilt me in favor of this lynch.

[Kairyuu]

I just thought, after I saw your post, maybe the seemingly normal refers to role revelation on death. This really has no basis, but it could be true. Maybe every mafia is a reverse miller on death (they show up innocent), maybe the role names revealed on death are not their real roles. Notice how we did not see the dead players MP's. The mod only revealed the role names, who knows what thy could do. We just assumed the doctors could heal/protect, and so on.

Now, this doesn't make sense with that guy who was lynched D1 (at L-3) and came up as hateful townie. That role name seems to suggest he did require less votes to be lynched, and he was lynched with less votes. So, back to square one.

Fluffpost.

You're really beginning to kill my town read on you.

[Kairyuu]

It appears bv has done it again, this time in L4D.

[Kairyuu]

@Nacho: He had 3 votes before this voting spree. He now has 10. He's dead.

[Kairyuu]

vote: Kise

[Kairyuu]

I have a theory, but I'm waiting until kyle has claimed to share it. Consider my vote on him for all intents and purposes.

[Kairyuu]

vote: kyle99

Lack of an explanation and the sketchy replacement request means he's scum.

[Kairyuu]

Moar kyle-death plox

[Kairyuu]

Can we just lynch kyle and deal with the rest of the scum tomorrow?

This. Hurry it up already. I'm bored.

[Kairyuu]

You people are extremely lame. LYNCH THE GODDAMN CONFIRMED SCUMBUCKET ALREADY BEFORE I DIE OF OLD AGE!

[Kairyuu]

-headscratch-

So let me get this straight. . .

Primate claims guilty on kyle, innocent on Konowa. kyle flips town, konowa flips town, Primate flips town. The only possible explanation is that Primate was a random cop, invalidating all of his results. Essentially we're back at square 1 in terms of confirmations.

Given that, and given that with 9 alive and only 1 dead scum in a 20 player game, it is very likely we're in lylo (assuming 5 scum, aka 25%) now is definitely the time for a massclaim. I propose we do popcorn starting with one of these players:

Raider
dana
Toon

I personally don't care which.

[Kairyuu]

Ah, apologies,

I don't know how I missed it, I blame playing at work.

I'm a 1 shot Vig.
I have yet to use my shot.

I will speak more about some aspects of my role once everybody else has posted.

I now nominate Doc Potter

Alright. This may be a problem. Given the numbers, even assuming only 3 scum remaining, you shooting and missing would end the game with a scum win if we don't hit scum today. However, by the same token, if there actually is a SK that's hidden up until now, then taking your shot if we lynch town may actually give us another shot at lylo if you shoot right, and have a negligible risk if you shoot wrong.

'course, this is all assuming you're telling the truth.

[Kairyuu]

Likely V/LA for 1-3 days due to illness.

[Kairyuu]

vote:Danakillsu

I dunno, he just seems suspicious[/b]

We WILL be finishing this massclaim. I want to take a shot at breaking the game, and lynching dana now, even though I believe him to be scum, is not the play. I expect at least one unvote until the massclaim is sorted out.

@all: As docpotter appears to be missing, I move to nominate my only unclaimed suspect, Raider, for the next to claim.

[Kairyuu]

I am a Hinder, presumably it is similar to that of a roleblocker that the end result was not the indented effect.

My targets have been: N1 farside, N2 Primate, N3 Anon, N4 Anon, N5 Seacore.

I will answer questions freely after all the mass claims are completed. I have more to add to this but it can wait until after the mass claim.

With Hades comment above I am wondering something so I wish for him to claim next, DocPotter needs to claim in his next post however (or the replacement).

Sorry for the quick post, my son if going into surgery today (very minor) and I need to quickly posts in my games as I am not sure if I will be back today.

vote: Raider

I have never heard of this "Hinder" role. One would assume that you were referring to being a Hider, as that's the closest thing I can think of, but that doesn't fit with the "presumably similar to a roleblocker" comment. In addition, if you actually are "similar to a roleblocker" then Primate should not have gotten a result at all N2. Given that he did, you've either screwed up your claim beyond recognition, or you've utterly failed at fakeclaiming. I'm strongly leaning towards the latter.

@Hades:

Look, we need to get this game moving faster. There's already three votes on Danakillsu. We only need four votes to lynch. Danakillsu has been acting awfully suspicious, and there's really only one way we can find out whether or not he is scum. So, will one more person please vote to lynch Danakillsu so that we can get the game moving. Kairyuu, you said that you think that Danakillsu is scum, so will you please vote to lynch him?

1. With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch, not 4. If I were to vote that would merely put dana at L-1, not lynch him

2. WE ARE MASSCLAIMING. This is not up for debate. NO ONE is being lynched until the massclaim is FINISHED.

2a. You're the one holding up the game at this point, because based on Raider's last post, YOU are the next one to claim, so claim in your next post. This is ALSO not up for debate.

2b. Your apparent desperation to lynch dana now that Raider has made his horrible claim makes me strongly suspect that you're scum with him. From the looks of it, Raider is the lynch today, and if he flips scum you die next.

[Kairyuu]

unvote

The lynch today will either be Raider or Hades. Assuming Raider is telling the truth about his lack of previous experience with the Hider role then I suppose his claim could be true.

Hrm. I just thought of a decent plan. We're lynching Hades.

@Seacore: You will shoot Raider tonight. I believe your claim more than I believe his, but your vig shot could be potentially game ending if used wrong. Therefore, using it on Raider is a best case scenerio. Either he's lying and dies as scum, or he's telling the truth and the kill is spent without a death.

@Raider: According to your role, do you die if you hide behind scum? If you don't, I want you to hide behind the person you believe is most likely scum. DO NOT claim who it will be. Assuming you are telling the truth, if you guess wrong you give the scum a 2-for-1 if it's claimed.

@all: I believe the scumteam to be contained within these people:

Raider
dana
Toon
Hades

@SK: Kill either dana or Toon. You have no chance of winning if the scum doesn't die, and those two are the best leads.

@Hades: Claim. NOW. You complained about the game needing to speed up, but you're STILL STALLING IT.

[Kairyuu]

@Hades:

First off, I am a townie roleblocker.

Provide targets for the game up until now.

Second, I believe that the scum are either Danakillsu or Raider (maybe even both.) They have both been acting very suspicious and on top of it Danakillsu is saying not to lynch Raider, which makes me think that maybe they are both scum. I will be keeping my vote Danakillsu and will wait to see how the voting goes, because I would be willing to lynch either one.

"Acting very suspicious" is a great case . . . [/sarcasm]

Third, I am sorry to hear about your son Raider.

QFT. I hope he feels better.

Fourth, I would like to say that I am not scum, but we all know my claim doesn't matter very much. All I can say is that if you lynch me you will be losing a valuable roleblock.

Classic AtE.

Fifth. Kairuu, you may say that I may be scum, but how are we supposed to know that you aren't scum?

So now that I'm accusing you I'm suddenly scum? For no reason other than "how do we know you aren't?" Amazing insight right there.

You have been playing very conservatively, which would be a very good way to detour anybody from thinking that you were scum, which from the looks of it, scum have been doing a very good job this game.

And how exactly have I been playing "very conservatively" as you put it, especially considering that you admit yourself to have not read the whole game. I distinctly remember that D1 I had V/LA issues for the majority of the time, missed N1 for the same reason, and have been reasonably active since.

Now, I don't really have quite enough of a case against you to think that you are scum yet, but I just want to point out that no one is 100% safe

1. Why make the accusation if you know you have no evidence to back it up?
2. This sounds a lot like "I fully plan on trying to incriminate you before I die."

@Raider: Alright. You'll hide behind someone you think it town, but you don't expect to be NKed then, assuming you're telling the truth, which I doubt.

@all: Since Hades didn't pick someone to go next, I'm volunteering. I'm vanilla, and at this point, whoever (Anon or Zazie) sees this first should claim next.

[Kairyuu]

We still need Zazie and Anon.

[Kairyuu]

Well, and DocPotter, but he's gone, so we can either wait for a replacement or just go with it. I'm in favor of waiting.

[Kairyuu]

@all: DocPotter is simply ignoring this game. I saw him post elsewhere yesterday. He's being added to the list of potential scumbuckets.

@Seacore: Unvote now please. At the very least we're still waiting on Anon, who should be back shortly.

[Kairyuu]

@Anon: I like your theory. However, there are 2 holes that might tie up the Seacore issue.

1. DocPotter has not claimed, so it's possible he could be a counterpart.
2. Unless he claims vig too we have a serial killer, who is ALSO technically a counterpart.

[Kairyuu]

He hasn't made a single post all Day. When I noticed he had been around elsewhere I added him to my scumlist, which now consists of:

DocPotter
Hades
dana
Raider
Toon

[Kairyuu]

Why not Seacore?

Of all the claims, I think Raider's hinder is the one I believe the most. Just for the fact that if you are going to fakeclaim then you probably know the exact name of your fakeclaim, dont you think?

You'd think that if you were telling the truth about your role you would at least know your own rolename by the same token though, right?

[Kairyuu]

Why not Seacore?

Of all the claims, I think Raider's hinder is the one I believe the most. Just for the fact that if you are going to fakeclaim then you probably know the exact name of your fakeclaim, dont you think?

You'd think that if you were telling the truth about your role you would at least know your own rolename by the same token though, right?

Not necessarily. I buy that raider is busy with his kid. I can buy that he didnt even look at his role PM and claimed from memory.

I definitely think scum would at least write his role okay if he were fakeclaiming. If you are scum, you know you are fakeclaiming, you make sure everything is okay before posting it.

Also, why not seacore?

Going by pre-claim play, Raider has been considerably worse than Seacore from my perspective. I'll give you that his willingness to get shot at to test his claim lends it credibility, but I still can't shake the feeling of Raider-scum. I want him shot to test the claim.

[Kairyuu]

I think we will lynch either Dana or Raider today, so if one of them turns up town, then kill the other.

How many scum are there in this game anyway?

It's dana or you. Personally, I prefer you based on your reaction (or lack thereof) to Raider's claim, but that's just me.

As for your question, we don't know for sure, but given the size of the game, it should be 5, or 4 assuming a Serial Killer, which seems to be what the majority says is in effect.

@Seacore: Unless there's a version of the Hider that I've never heard of, your theory is poor. The two common variants both hide from kills, where one becomes itself untargettable (all roles targetting it fail) while the other allows all other roles to resolve normally. Neither of these variants allow roles that target the hider's "hidee" to receive results/affect the hider, except potentially a doc, who would stop the "hidee" from dying, and therefore would protect the hider in the process. Much more likely that Raider is simply lying scum and there is no hider.

Since it seems the consensus is for not waiting on DocPotter, I'll:

vote: Hades

[Kairyuu]

@Seacore: It's a reasonably common role (Hider).

Also, I do agree that dana probably needs to die, considering I've been after him for most of the game, but Hades claimed RB. I suspect that he's the scum RB, and if he is, he can screw up the plans for testing Raider's claim tonight if Raider is actually town, netting them essentially a free kill and possibly an endgame scenerio. Previously, I stated that scum probably didn't have a roleblocker due to Primate not being blocked N4, but Hades' claim actually FITS with him being the scum RB, because EB was not around for N4 or N5 (the No Target nights), meaning that would explain why he didn't block Primate.

Logically speaking, Hades is the best lynch. We can lynch dana tomorrow, assuming the SK (who needs to be working with the town at this point if they want any chance to win) doesn't kill him.

[Kairyuu]

@Seacore:

Okay, but what about the part where Raider says that if he targeted scum he'd be dead, therefore those he targeted must be town?

If Raider is telling the truth then we've practically won already, because that means that the remaining scum are among (DocPotter, Zazie, Kairyuu, dana, Hades, Toon). That leaves ~4 scum out of 6 players.

How about, just to mess with the scum, we kill Hades, and then i Vig one of Dana and Raider?

Thing is, if Hades flips town somehow, we need a scumdeath, so you should shoot based on whether or not you believe Raider's claim (Raider if you don't, dana if you do), but if (when) Hades flips scum, this is not quite as pressing, so you should use your own judgement as to whether you want to shoot for confirmations or for hitting scum, and move based on that.

tl;dr: I believe your claim, and trust you'll shoot in the best interests of the town, so I say we leave it to your decision.

[Kairyuu]

It's the hiding behind scum = death aspect that concerns me.

That part is normal. Click the wiki link?

[Kairyuu]

That was PAINFUL.

Unvote
Vote: dana

@Seacore: Use your judgement. If you think Hades is scum, OR that Raider is town, shoot Hades. If Hades is scum and Raider isn't he WILL block Raider to make sure your bullet goes through.

@rest of town: Finish this.

[Kairyuu]

@Zazie: Breadcrumbing is scummy. That's practically the only point in his favor from my perspective. Only scum should need to go out of their way to make their claim believable later in the game. Town should be far more concerned with scumhunting.

[Kairyuu]

Two Serial Killers? Also, Zazie-scum is unexpected. That lends credibility to Raider's claim, actually. With that much killing power, another protective role is more likely. That leaves Hades, CMAR, or Toon, since I know I'm not scum, and I don't believe Anon is. Given:

1. EB was away during N4, when the block of Primate would have been submitted.
2. We now have 2 Goon flips, and, given the demonstrated power of the town, it's highly likely that scum have at least one power role, roleblocker being the most common.
3. EB's claimed targets themselves are pretty sketchy.

I'm willing to say that Hades is one of our scumbuckets.

vote: Hades

[Kairyuu]

@CMAR: No. Hades replaced EB. Hence, Hades = scum by my analysis.

[Kairyuu]

No, you may not. It's a modkillable offense. You do have to claim though.

[Kairyuu]

@CMAR: Masslclaim ended yesterday. Claims are as follows:

CMAR: Vanilla
Toon: Vanilla
Kairyuu: Vanilla
Anon: Vanilla
Hades: Roleblocker
Raider: Hider

With 2 dead mafia goons and 2 dead SKs, there's, at most, 2 scum left. Given the power role distribution we've already had flip, as well as those claimed, I would expect the scum to have at least one power role, possibly two. For that reason, Hades' roleblocker claim is extremely sketchy. Town roleblockers are rather rare, but at the same time, scum seem to like to claim it, because they can potentially confirm their ability. Hence, Hades-lynch is optimal, not only based on the claim, but also his play yesterday in regards to the attempted dana-quicklynch. I suspect that it would be a scum win already if not for Seacore killing Zazie instead of Raider.

This is what I believe the scum's thoughts/plans for last Night were.

With only one death other than their own kill the previous Night, and dana's flip of SK, they expected Seacore to shoot at Raider as planned, so Hades blocked Raider so the kill would go through. At the same time, in order to ensure that the game would end, they needed to make sure the Day started with 6 players, and since they "knew" who Seacore would shoot, they couldn't take their own shot at Raider, because that wouldn't end the game, and they'd have to deal with another Day. So they picked Seacore, who would be pretty much confirmed town if the Day hit, due to the fact that dana flipped SK already, and it's almost unheard of to have 2 SKs in a game like this, in addition to the fact that there were never 3 kills in a Night. That way, even if Seacore decided not to use his shot for fear of ending the game, he'd be dead so he wouldn't be a threat. What they didn't realize however, was that Seacore, being a SK, could actually screw up their plans. So they got Seacore dead, but at the cost of what was probably their trump card. No one really suspected Zazie, so I suspect the scum were expecting to coast to endgame on his coattails.

I'm sure at least some of you will write that all off as WIFOM, but try thinking about it for a bit. It makes a helluva lot of sense.

@Raider: I think CMAR isn't reading, and is thinking the massclaim isn't over. I may be wrong though.

[Kairyuu]

@CMAR: Pay attention/read the thread please. Seacore claimed 1-shot vig who hadn't used his shot yet.

[Kairyuu]

@CMAR: PAY ATTENTION DAMMIT.

1. Raider is not 'clear' per se, but is likely town, due to the role distribution (more protective roles goes along with more killing roles).

2. Toon should not be clear to you, due to the fact that anyone can go "Oh yeah, my role PM says that too." In your case, you are almost definitely clear through your claim, but Toon is not.

3. Anon is clear if we assume Raider town, due to the hiding situation.

4. I am decidedly male, and I'm not clear in any way, but given that I know I'm town, I'm not complaining that I've not been suspected heavily.

5. Hades is obv-scum.

6. Seacore is a dead SK (hence the pay attention comment).

7. Your plan fails due to Seacore being dead and scum.

Essentially, Hades is our caught scum, and either Toon or Raider (or me, but I know that to be false) is his buddy, which will be easier to determine based on the results of the Night.

[Kairyuu]

By the way:

I will be V/LA from now until May 4th for exams.

Lynch Hades-scum while I'm gone, kthxbai.

[Kairyuu]

You have GOT to be shitting me. Is this some sort of "How many SKs can we fit into one game" trick?

Goddamn it. That was not what I needed to see after coming back from my first final.

[Kairyuu]

GODDAMN IT.

Town did NOTHING all game barring jbernier's investigation, and we had it in the bag from D4 or 5, but of course the friggen SKs screwed everything up by killing Zazie and then me in quick succession.

Gratz town. You were handed the game after being led around by the nose. This is the first loss I'm legitimately pissed about, because we did everything right and had it taken away from us at the last minute.

@raider: You made the wrong vote, honestly, but you did the best you could. CMAR was shaken up over Toon's comments and suspected him of having flipped. Voting Toon would have probably led CMAR to vote with you.